weirpig

Are Some very nice Autumn charts frost and possibly fog going by those charts. Lovely weather and as of yet still no sign of the Atlantic.

Possibly. But by your law of averages then this year should be cold and snowy going by the previous three

I'm not to sure what your seeing. Unable to post charts as on phone but the ecm does show heights eroding at the at the end of the run but at the same timescale on the gfs it shows the same but then another ridge builds then we finish with impressive heights towards Greenland very early days and in my opinion the blocking will still be in place in 10 days time. Differing opinions and all that however the vortex will get its act together at some point still it is very early so if the vortex does strengthen it's not a disaster by any means

Yep Karl much more quicker evolution then the gfs . Cold bonfire night seems to be a recurring theme at the moment

Yep if it were December and these these charts came to fruition then there would be serious cold uppers heading south however that pattern if it were to happen would take days if not a few weeks to budge all the while pumping colder air our way . Great charts

Well as far as model watching goes that run from the gfs is the best this year in my opinion that block is going nowhere a strong north. Northeasterly sets in and we have a cold start to November . If only it were that easy

Good points and although i agree , Its your wording of your previous comment that is rather confusing. You stated that going into November will be wet and windy and told us to look at the various weather sites and models Met office included. At no point on any models(as far as they go) does it show anything other then a blocked atlantic. Of course this could all change but going on the information available Wet and windy seems the least likely option. Thank you for your insight into your thinkings into what the next month will provide .

Yep as Zakos as pointed out above as long as the differences over Canada continue. then i expect many solutions to be on the table. Fun model watching though.

Actually he might be closer to the truth this year( exits building quickly)

What a spot Bryan! Very informative.

Monday 7 November—Sunday 27 November Autumn is nearly out of sight! Pushing this far out in forecasting is always complex and a range of weather solutions will always emerge from the many global computer models that we look at. The pattern that is emerging looks to be slow moving and high pressure is likely to be close to the UK. This indicates that we are likely to see limited changes in weather on a daily basis and it looks like overall we could see more overnight frosts and fog becoming more extensive. Frontal systems are unlikely to affect the UK while showers are likely close to coastal areas where the sea can still provide enough heating to help produce showers. There's a lot that can happen until then and remember than we are transitioning from October to November the message is that we are not likely to see anything unusual for this time of year. Seems dry and chilly with little or no change at the moment.

Some nice charts on the ensembles here is my favourite just to wet the appetite out in Fl but nice to look at.

Well eventful run from the Gfs op we got nice calm warm conditions northerlies north westerlies north easterlies and then a windstorm at the end of the run. Blocking however still prevalent till the end of the run, With some quite cool uppers again through the early part of the month. still have no idea eyes to the ensembles.

It's late October the theme is still blocking we are miles away from last year I thought for a moment that was going to be the earliest winters over post . Many twists and turns to come over the next possibly 5 months

Surely south east. Then the flood gates open

You are right Barry the charts you have posted does show that over the last 48 hours the overall pattern isnt quite as good. However the mean on the Gfs isnt bad at all i think most would snatch your hand off for these charts compared to last year

Yep Karl Much better than this time last year chart wise that is. Most have frequent Northerly North Westerly incursions with quite low uppers filtering down the country a couple even have a cold easterly late on in the run. All in All a nice set of ensembles. It could well be a chilly Bonfire night this year. Maybe.

Interesting Gfs 6z run there. quite a lot of ridging in the Atlantic followed by outbreaks of north westerly/ Northerlies and ending in fi with quite a potent northerly originating from a low coming from the north. it would certainly feel raw for early November . If it were to verify that is.

Hi Wendy. what part of the Uk are you from?

youve got to love the gfs , Well if this happens ill be very happy atlantic what atlantic! what a different position we are in to this time last year.

will at 198h on Gfs the high still in control and heights going into the pole.

5.9 for me please a low downward trend as the month goes on.

As predictions goes here is JUdah Cohen prediction for this winter in the USA he is basing this on a weak polar vortex which could lead to a SSW and above normal snow advance what will it mean for here? who knows. https://www.nsf.gov/news/special_reports/autumnwinter/predicts.jsp

Yes there does tend to be over the coming 2 week period a slight rising AO, However it still at this point doesnt seem to be going into positive terrority, And with the Zonal winds forecast to do strange things i really have no idea whats going to happen over the coming weeks and months.

Well the ec keeps us in a very familiar pattern no sign of the Atlantic quiet and Benin conditions.