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weirpig

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Everything posted by weirpig

  1. I'm sure it's the ecm seasonal I believe it's usually on the 4th
  2. I understand that. But surely it must be better going into winter with a blocked setup and pressure on the vortex then a Atlantic driven pattern ?
  3. Pete. Typical November weather is wind and rain blocking looks great for me at the moment it's all about frost and cold. The snow can wait
  4. Id like to help out Pete but i was only 1, i think there may have been a snow storm trawling through the archives
  5. Not amazing However i believe winter 76-77 had cert of 1.8 for December 2.1 for January. 3.6 for Feb. So not that bad.
  6. Looking at the Gfs Ensembles their are quite a few now going for a ECM type of solution with the energy droping more south however most if not all have the pattern a little to far east at this juncture. Loads still to be resolved
  7. Gfs totally different at a relatively short time range. Slighty different times but you get the idea
  8. certainly leaning more towards the Ecm on this run Totaly different pattern
  9. Morning all Just a quick question is the ECM still the king when it comes to verification up to 144? Has anyone got a link to the verification stats ?
  10. The differences with the vortex at 120 is quite stark between the ECM and Gfs with a tightly knitted Depression moving out of southern greenland
  11. It has Ali I think a couple of ensembles might start to show a Scandi high we shall see.
  12. Slightly Different orientation of the high and colder uppers on this run were will it lead?
  13. Yep I think a lot will see snow this year fingers crossed
  14. whoops yes should have added that was just to illustrate the temp anom in North America I expect big changes this month.
  15. Again maybe off topic but it mentions 30% chance of being in the coldest sector (5) is there a list/diagram of these sectors which will correlate to what they represent in temps
  16. I believe its the mean of the three months. 30 % chance of it being in the coldest sector
  17. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/public-sector/contingency-planners Sorry had to sit on this until formally released in last few minutes! Hope fergie does not mind me posting this in here what a update!
  18. excellent update we might even see some white stuff this year
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