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Rocheydub

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Rocheydub
    poor spelling

    2 minutes ago, MR_E said:

    Question regarding some of the changes with how north the low goes. With the 12z GFS it’s looking more north than previously. My question is how much do these things tend to correct run to run? For example, let’s say that low went high enough for midlands to get snow, would we see each model run pushing it further and further north or would one run just change it completely?

    Increments on each run. Frankly can't see it going up to midlands. When it was prog'd first on the NWP it was midlands, I and many others said it would go south on each run, as is the form of these things. 

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I for one, am encouraged going forward. I noticed it yesterday and again today and it also ties in (somewhat) with what @Tamara has been saying

    If you look at the 2 below T240 charts from ECM and GFS, you will notice the draining away of low heights from Svalbard area with hints of height rises nudging in.

    I will enjoy the bitter cold as it arrives tomorrow night and maybe I will see a few flakes. It's only 3 degrees today feeling a lot colder and I love that! (To each their own) but as the week draws to a close, I will be watching for hints of HP cells creeping into Scandy. I realise model fatigue is strong, but I have been fascinated watching how all this has begun to unfurl. I'm keeping the faith.

    Screenshot 2024-01-13 at 13.38.58.png

    Screenshot 2024-01-13 at 13.39.40.png

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    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I'm not so sure why there is so much weeping and gnashing of teeth here, models with egg on face etc. These are super computers who do not compute embarrassment or emotions. The computers picked up the long wave signals a good few weeks back and stuck with it generally speaking. That's all we can expect from those distances and I think they did superbly well at that. The micro and macro scale of 2 such tiny islands in the grand scheme of things is nigh on impossible to get 100% correct at these big time differences. If you're not aware of the phrase "if a butterfly flaps its wings" then I suggest you google it. Chill pill. It's only weather after all. Worldwide life in our recent months and years shows us we all actually have vey little to moan about if a lack of snow is your biggest worry.

    Back to the models. I'm not going to post the ECM 240 chart as it's on several pics up above, but I'm greatly encouraged to see the clear signal for the draining of low heights over Svalbard and Scandy. The would give us a quick enough route into another cold spell. I'll be keeping a keen eye on that area next after this week is over.

    I'll enjoy this week, whatever it brings, I wish you all well in your chase. Whatever your weather desires are. But remember, posters here and the NWP super computers don't decide the weather, mammy nature does.  

    Much love.

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