Rocheydub
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Posts posted by Rocheydub
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30 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:
Hope that Dublin snow shield gets smashed next week for you Rochey
That makes 2 of us!!!
If this goes as the ECM and UKMO are predicting, the whole island will do well, even the snow starved people in my area! I'd be 70% confident at this stage and only worry is the GFS output. If that keeps up it's a real concern for us snow lovers! Hopefully it all changes tonight at 10pm!!-
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Latest ECM just finishing up rolling out now, is an absolute cracker. That would be countrywide snow, and some decent amounts in sweet spots up north!
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A chance for some lamp post watching for me tonight, maybe a light dusting. There's been a bit of shower activity all day, nothing sustained mind you and all cold rain!
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Can't see how Met E are saying that looking at the charts. Maybe they just revert to the the common weather when they're not sure??
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I use ignore a lot too. Mostly use it to educate myself by the likes of Tamara's posts.
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5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
A sobering run is on the menu tonight!
A fellow Irishman using the term sober. Looking at the GFS, I've a feeling we'll need a stiff drink! And the bitter irony is it's the pub run!
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My front garden is slightly elevated, as such it loses water very quickly and I have to water it often in the summer. Walked across the grass this evening and it's sodden. I'm living here over 20 years and I've never seen it like that. I literally splodged* across the grass.
*Yes, I did make that word up. -
Right back at ye!
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5 minutes ago, Methuselah said:An MJO signal that was jumped on by the usual suspects?
Can I make a suggestion, put certain posters that over-ramp prospects of cold on mute if it bothers you? I have some on mute and it makes this thread WAY more interesting and informative
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8 hours ago, mountain shadow said:
Christmas starting to look interesting particularly from an Ulster perspective.
Just looking at the charts now, fair to say that IF they came off like that, a lot of the island would be seeing white stuff falling on the big day. The wind would be strong enough to blow it a good bit inland and it will feel baltic!!! Now just 12 more days of model watching to get to a point of confidence.
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Some wind over the last couple of days, it was supposed to die down yesterday afternoon, so I ventured up the ladder to the eaves to hang the house lights up, had to grab on a couple of times with the force of the wind. Never again! Orange warning for Saturday but felt today was way worse. 2 named storms 2 days in a row is pretty rare. And a hurricane in Leitrim today. Mental times.
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6 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Jet is all over the place.wave breaks ..no zonal train on this one...looking at what is happening across the pond with lack of cold predicted not adding fuel to the jet ..
It's quite remarkable really, very unusual. Not that it's a precursor for any HLB, but at least it's not a hinder. Very interesting model watching this evening. Shannon E is warming her voice on honey.
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Not so much as a flake fell here. Not even sleet. A couple of frosts, that's it. Cold rain mostly.
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7 hours ago, na52 said:
Oh I'm calling first flakes , snowed here this morning with that wee shower that passed through about 6:40
Bravo! It's going to be cold enough for us all to see snow from tonight onwards really. Keeping my fingers crossed. Haven't had long snow here since March 2018. That's creeping up on 6 years. Dublin snow shield is as good as it gets! Models are really unsure about longevity and Met Eireann keeping their powder dry too! As always, time will tell!
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Interesting from Met Éireann, quite bullish on it remaining cold.
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46 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:
I am sure it even counts sleet as accumulated snow. I mean, whoever heard of a sleetman?
Yes, it's potentially going to be at least a week of the hit and miss 'feature lottery' show, presented by *insert duty forecaster* "Which favoured area will strike it lucky tonight?"
Ahem, sleetperson!
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1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:
The ECM has the block yelling timberrrr as it sinks over the UK. Similar to the GEM & UKMO.
That's GEM
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On 28/10/2023 at 12:06, mountain shadow said:
Possible big storm mid week, right over us.
Maybe sub 950mb!
Watching this for a few days. Some of the outputs talking about 160kph/100mph winds. That's red level warning stuff.
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The consistent rain looks set to continue all week now. Some poor people have been obliterated. A time for some Autumnal high pressure would be most welcome. A few crispy dry days to dry everything out!
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33 minutes ago, andreas said:
While it's quiet I was quite struck by how the 12Z ECM becomes so much colder in the northern hemisphere view, within just ten days. Maybe this just happens every year so apologies if that's the case!
Yes, it usually happens around the final 1/3 of October and into November. Like as if an alarm clock is set for the SPV to wake up every year!
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Countrywide yellow warning 2 days in advance is very unlike Met Eireann. I can only see this upgrading. Named as storm Agnes. Isobars look very tight.
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No let up on the Hurricane season, very brisk start to it. Another East Atlantic hurricane whipping up, this one looking to make significant progress north into the Atlantic. Not yet named but identified as 15. This certainly looks like it will join Lee by catching into the jet and ripping across the ocean to our shores. Margot has dissipated significantly without making progress.
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And as if by magic, the hurricane "Margot" I was talking about is predicted to drop back to storm force winds by weekend and will dissipate further after... Ah well!
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Sorry to break away from this heat today, but this storm I've been keeping a watch on has been named Tropical storm Margot and is still on course to develop into a hurricane and it's path is now predicted on a more NNW trajectory by Wednesday. Very strong likelihood it will get pulled up into the jet stream and booted over near us.
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Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Best case scenario. the low pushing up from the south stalls and proceeds to fill slowly and keep us in the very cold air after dumping all its white goodness on us. It's possible if the high pressure remains strong !