Rocheydub

Sorry Karlos, no doubting it, there is a bigger swing through all the ensembles to a more westerly dominated regime, from mid range to FI.

Indeed, no disputing that. I am however discussing the latest output as I stated. This is the MOD thread, not the "I give up hope and despair" thread! :-)

Just hearing about your old colleague Ian, so terribly sorry for your loss. I live in Dublin, but regularly switched to BBC over the decades, to see what his thought's were in the years before (and after) the internet age. A terrific way of explaining to the masses, and a scientific knowledge never weakened from doing so. A huge loss! Hope you will oblige me by passing on the condolences of the Irish weather enthusiasts to your buddies. As a great tribute to him, I hope that mother nature continues to battle with the wits here and beyond, by confounding us all with predictions and different results! As we say here in Ireland: Ar dheis De go raibh a anam. Back to NWP, slightly more encouraging, but still not hopeful for a cold and possibly snowy festive season by the 12's and 18 outputs.

I've given up on December anyway. Unless GP's thoughts prevail, but to me it's very doubtful. He's gone very quiet!

Yes, I agree. The NWP in 2009/2010 were quite bullish in the lead up to the events and strong signals remained right up to the T-0, I'm seeing nothing to back up GP's optimism, although I do also hope to be proven very wrong indeed.

Model fatigue on December 5th. I'm taking a break for a couple of days!

I really respect matt as a meteorologist. But I'm starting to get the feeling that likes and click bait are becoming his aim!!! That's so far away to be not worthy of mention.

Just checking on the phone and can't find it, but on laptop just click on the username and the option is below their profile to 'ignore user'!

Loving these harsh frosts. Walking the dog at night all wrapped up and home then to a hot mug of tea and a roaring fire! Id still hold faith in what Stuart (GP) said all along, pattern change within the next 2 weeks. It's starting to show in some of the GEFS already. By the way, there's an exceptional 'ignore user' function on the site. I find it helps take the clutter out of the MOD thread. Makes it much more readable!

Matt has not changed his mind, he has cast a doubt upon something he felt was a near certainty! Big difference. It's beem suggested that the NWP have been experiencing uncertainty because of southern hemispherical storms, that were not expected. To use a phrase, "JAM TOMORROW"! :-)

I've read Matt's thoughts, and the lack of posts by SM here speak volumes. But then again, today was just one set of 24 hourly runs. Up and down... My point is this, there are over-riding signals as GP and Matt have pointed out backed up by Tamara and a few more of the more knowledgable posters. I'm a SACRA. I'm not giving up just because one daily set produce poor charts. We've been here before. I firmly believe this December (last 1/3) will produce a decent wintery spell, for most lowland folk. Not 2009/2010 proportions, because they are once in a lifetime events, but something of note. I'm not even having model fatigue yet either. Sure it's not winter for another 67 minutes!!!

UKMO run for this evening was a cracker. Eyes down for the ecm starting at 6

Also, I hope you didn't take it as a personal attack, certainly not meant that way... I rarely look at this thread for long term guidance, I usually follow the strat thread and what my own hunch from the understanding I've gained from GP, SM, Tamara etc etc. It's been solid agreement that we will have HLB from mid Dec onward. Time will tell, but today was a telling stamp on the card.

I disagree with you fully. I've been watching all the background signals, not the posts on this forum. I'm not a cold ramper by the way, before you accuse me of that. I've always thought the 2nd half of Dec would see a sharp cooling of our air temps.

Good lord. The over riding signals have always been for mid to late December. We're still in Autumn. Take a chill pill. Back to the models, there are nuances in the later runs that suggest we may be edging towards a cold/very cold set up. Will it snow in my back yard?? I'll tell you in 3 weeks!

Sadly, the 12z runs are not great so far, just awaiting ECM not at 6 for finally nailing the coffin shut!

Yet, you cannot discount it either. Look, I love snow and cold 1982 1983 2009 and 2010 always remembered for their frigid wonderful weather. I had great fun as a kid and with my kids... That said, this is as viable an option as the previous runs, because it is shown. Just because it's not what you want to see, doesn't mean it's not correct. That said, I do think we will see widespread Arctic conditions soon. Your post however needs reviewing! Jumping on every run as the gospel here is quite comical, especially at such FI distances! Good night, too late for me to be up anyway!

Closest I came to an ice day yesterday since 2010, max'd at 1.4 degrees and was only in positive territory for about 3 hours, Glorious weather!

A sleety shower earlier today (10am) after the heavy rain and feeling much colder altogether. Love this weather. Give me the chilly cold stuff any day... Doubt I'll see much snow action tonight though IMBY. Might be worth a drive up to Wicklow on Saturday or Sunday though!

The vortex resembling the dodo bird, in both looks and existence!

Not sure if you guys voted for Brexit or not, but I was shocked that was passed.. But not as shocked as Trump. Forget about the MOD thread, we'll have a nuclear winter soon enough!

Last non moderator post!!!! Yes!

Hah lads, what is stained glass window swear filter for? Interesting looking charts for days 7-10 Early November chills, they're multiplying!

We are miles away from any Met office warnings. Let's not get carried away here. Great charts for us coldies, but let's not bring newbies up a garden path here with such emotive talk!

And to add fuel to a winter's fire. The ECM seasonal is just out. It's predicting + height anom to the NW and Greenland HP + anoms with - pressure anoms to the SE and SW.... Interesting!