Rocheydub

Looking possible for my locality on Saturday now, marginal, but certainly possible! Would be my first proper snowfall since 2010 if it does land!

However, as Saturday progresses, things get a little more interesting, maybe an hour or 2 of heavy snow... Marginal to say the least, but maybe worth it!

Tell me about it... #Dublinsnowshield

It goes on to flatten it in deep FI, but I was interested for a short while there. It's a plausible evolution to my eyes anyway! #wishfulthinking

Hello GFS. What are you doing with our high pressure as you go into low res.... Pushing it up north, are we?

I'm baaaaccckkkk! Had a great few days away from the MOD thread and look now, there is a shot of now next weekend and some atlantic ridge possibilities! Looks like the SSW is a strong contender too... I'm defo more upbeat this evening.

Potent enough PM shot, but sadly not what we're all looking for. I am however interested in what Nick was talking about, and the differences at T144 over the water upstream. This will take some watching. If the euro models are not handling this well, it will have big implications to anything beyond 144. If it interacts with the PV very strongly, then we could have a fairly quick response from the models. I think we'll know more by the 12z runs tomorrow.

Flip flop! Like the NWP. Am taking a break for a few days folks, need to stop looking at that horrible output!!!

It's time to take a break from the models, this last cold 'spell' produced very little for me, despite promising so much in the run up! 3 frosts and a 15 minute sleet shower! The NWP showed it to be much more potent, and the current output really doesn't offer me any hope. Even GPs torpedo seems to have fallen short! Maybe in late Feb with a SSW? I'm worn out though! I'd advise any of the rest of you with model fatigue to do the same, I do it every winter at least twice, and often return refreshed ready to chase another winter holy grail on the NWP. See you in a couple of days!

You must admit though, as that chart is, it's not going to undercut! If it did, and dragged the whole pattern west by 500 miles or so, then yes, we could be in the game, but very unlikely looking at that chart!

Out to 162. and as you'd expect, some larger scale changes starting to appear, as per normal at this range. Handling of the low pressure systems in the Atlantic differs here, and this effects how much/if any HP can ridge upwards. I doubt we'd get the cut off high we all crave from there though!

The original question was would the low go under the block. I said no, it would ride over the top. It pushes the high down, and I call that a sinker. There is minimal difference between this and the 12z so far.

Yep, it's a sinker sadly... This is 102

It's a sinker folks. Look at it on meteociel and scroll, you'll see the low is going to ride over the top.

You are of course spot on. Aliaalu, in those winters, we had high latitude high pressure cells above our country, one located over Greenland, and it moved to Scandinavia and back again, and it pushed much colder air down over Ireland. When low pressure systems came along, it dumped large amounts of snow on us... And the really cold air coming over us, dragged up moisture off the sea, and dropped it down on us in white glory (streamers) Ah, those were the days!

Well, got my fix on the Sally Gap in Wicklow today. It was a pitiful few pockets of slushy collections, but we got out with the dog, built a snowman and had a snowball fight for a couple of hours. A great day out. Pity I had to drive 60 miles in total to do it, but I was getting very tetchy looking at the pictures from across the water thinking of what might have been!

You need to charge your phone Steve!!! :-) Seriouusly though, I like the look of that, I can't access the charts on this heap of rubbish, what timescale is that and I assume it's ECM?

:-) Classic autocorrect and profanity filter!!! Goodnight, And a wee prayer for a magical flip to cold on the NWP in the morning!!!

Quite a difference in the Atlantic in particular, heights ridging north better. Pity they're not more robust!

I suppose we can't have everything... And no, I wouldn't swap any of them for the world! :-) You have put a smile on my face, so thanks Pom!!! I guess I just immersed myself in the models and had myself convinced we'd see some! Ah well, as my dad used to say "man proposes, God disposes"! The weather will do what it likes! Cheers Pom.

So tonight is the last night of this "cold spell" Today was 6.5 degrees for about 5 hours. Last night was the coldest night of the year with -2.1 the lowest it went. I had a sleety rain shower with a few snow flakes thrown in for about 35 minutes in total on Thursday night. Friday's high was 3.2 degrees. So I had a 24 hour period of some cold temperatures, and about 72 hours of cool weather. Returning to closer to normal temperatures from Monday on. What an absolute let down this has been. I've cleared my diary for tomorrow, and I'm going up to WIcklow mountains to see can I get my white fix. I am very disappointed. I was sure I'd get some snow settling on this event before it started, and it would have been the first since 2010. Very p****d off indeed!

Cold drizzle all day here too! that looks fantastic BFTV... I'm very tempted now!!!

I sincerely doubt we'll get anything bar drizzle here!

It does, but to be fair, it wouldn't take much adjustment for it to become a scandi HP. There was a good negative tilt to the low too. One to watch.

No, it's a Scandinavia High, with an undercut on the way.