Rocheydub

Wind really picking up here now. Some squally showers passing through too. Certainly interesting weather... The MOD thread will be a good place to go today to see how bad the NWP is, same oul face posting charts showing HLBs in 8+ days time... It's gas really! I haven't had lying snow since 2010, and I'm more desperate for it than most! Maybe it's the years of experience I have from coming here! :-)

Yes, they are very knowledgable, but there are plenty more in here that are just as good. The NWP shows what it does, a lot of that time, it keeps some people from posting as there is no real good news for coldies etc. Steve Murr was a classic example of that. I'm here about 6 years now and have learned who's input to cherish. Nick, John, Steve, Stuart, Chiono to name a few. You won't go wrong with these guys if your preferred guys are not posting.

Absolutely spot on. When such a wide range and divergence on the cards, the mean is of no use.

Just kidding Frosty... But I would love a stats chart to see how many of those FI cold charts you post came to fruition... Anyway, the WTF moment a couple of years back is something all us coldies will never forget!!!

OK, let's see how confident you are... Let's make a bet? I say that this chart will not verify, and I'm so confident, I'll give you 5-1 odds? Knowing my gambling history, You'll win the bet, and we'll both be happy! :-)

While it was an obvious joke, it would be warm on that chart, very warm for time of year, look at those fetch of winds all the way from Africa!!! Awful stuff! Knowing our luck, this is the FI that would come true!!!

Yes, good charts for coldies (me included) but as John stated, we'll need to see these modelled consistently and across most reliable models before I'll get excited. I find tempering expectations reduces the inevitable disappointment and reduces the manic hysteria that regularly occurs here in the winter months. I'm sure while most of the mods are weather enthusiasts like me, they must dread the first signs of HLB in our area as winter gets underway!!! Good luck guys! PS, even if that Greeny high was to occur, it's quite weak and not very robustly shaped, to me, looks like it would be consumed by mr. Atlantic!

Its absolutely wild out today, my 2 year old was blown over in a car park... It was extremely difficult to choke back the laughter!!! Not so much rain here, but I'm told a lot of storm damage countrywide.

Well, I know it's very windy. My anemometer just blew off it's perch and into one of my neighbours garden, ripping the wire from it's casing too!!! It wasn't working after storm Barney, now I know why!!! Anyway, rainfall at 9mm in the last 3 hours. Heavy beautiful stormy madness out there. Be safe everyone, I was getting up a ladder to hang icicle lights at about 5pm, bot up about 6 rounds of the ladder, and came back down after a fierce gust!!!

Well I measured 33 mm rain yesterday in a 12 hour period. I guess we'll have something similar over the next 2 days, so I'd imagine there will be rivers bursting the banks by Sunday! Very exciting weather!

Yep, no chance of it being flippin' white stuff!!!

15mm of rain in the last 3 hours and looking at the radar, it's only going to get heavier. Could be some pretty bad flooding if this comes to pass!

6 degrees here, 150 miles south of you!!! Mind you, it was a stormy wet and windy day here and very interesting. Good luck to you all up there tonight, I want pics and some lamp-post snaps on my desk by morning!!! :-)

Heeeyyyyy! Don't forget us Irish! There's a good few of us here!!!! ;-) I'm just playing a minority card for likes! :-)

Meant to say it, saw a fabulous falling meteor last night in clear cold skies out in West Dublin, left a trail like a halloween firework! Was at about 4 this morning while I was driving in work! Fairly stunning I must say!

Indeed. So no clear path to cold, if you rely (like I do) on NWP for forecasting. Coming to a clear path to cold from here has mostly proven very difficult at our long/lat and one must rule it out for the next 8 or 9 (most certainly more) days... But here is where we only begin winter... So far from a need to panic!

I personally didn't see it as aimed at you, but then again, I didn't write it! It is very hard to disagree with what he said though, there is no significant chance of decent cold setting in, at our locality, in the near or medium term, if you use the NWP as a guide... Despite the upbeat nature of some of the posters here... If people are getting model fatigue and it's not even December yet, it's going to be a long winter! Do what I usually do... Take a break from all NWP and this site, come back in a few days, and who knows, maybe there'll be an uptick in prospects for real cold! PS. Please stay Nick, your posts are ones that I thoroughly enjoy!

Biting cold wind but dry last night, not as cold today and pouring cold rain in a strong NW wind and 5.6 degrees!!! Interesting weather to say the least!

Let's hope that it's just the GFS doing its usual and over deepening these LP systems, otherwise that will do severe damage!

Of course I do. This is mother nature, anything is possible, and often unpredicted!!! I would be a lot less optimistic than the vast majority that posted before me stating the Sib HP is good for us. Yes, it could be worse, a lot worse, but I would hardly be so positive with this current set up, if it's proper cold and snow that you want! (ME!)

Yours was a "spell"? I didn't even get a snap! It was cold last night (night shift), today and tonight again, but the only snow I saw was on the M9 motorway about lunchtime... It was about 8 maybe 10 flakes of snow... Either that or I hit a tray of foam packaging on the motorway! Or a flock of very small white doves!!!

Indeed. Past recent history (I think 2012) will show how really difficult it really is to retrogress a Siberian HP cell far enough west to really effect our weather on these islands. And if it does, it will only effect most probably the east coast and it's neighboring regions on England and Scotland. All we can hope is that this Siberian HP, can offer some warm air advection into an unstable vortex, and hope the dice falls our way! That said, I wouldn't lose all hope folks, I mean, winter is still 10 days away yet!

Same here BFTV, wild out there. Some storm damage occuring in Dublin city with roads being closed too. Looking forward to the forecast on RTE news on Friday evening now!!!

Ah yes lads, at last, proper interesting weather to discuss... Not a leaf left on the trees here now. Thank you wind! Here's to a proper winter from here on, MILD MUCK AUTUMN IS OVER.... Thanks be to fn3k!

18.5 degrees today in the garden. No sunlight on the sensor either... Bizarre. A long way from my favourite baltic stuff anyway!