Rocheydub

Now that is impressive. This is the most impressive 10 day mean yet this winter. Fairly strong support so!

Oh good God! It's 8 days away from even starting. There will be great variances on every run at that distance, as you well know. Let's get the long wave pattern in place and heights over Greeny and then we can discuss how cold it will be and where it will snow!

I'll hazard and say that a vortex destruction (hopefully) this season will be trop lead, and not a strat warming. While it's trending downward (no argument here), it doesn't rule out a strat warming or even a SSW.

Eyes down now for the ECM. The GFS hinting at Greeny heights. If there's any chance of them, the ECM will show them as traditionally it kind of over blows or over states HL blocks (not phrased well, but you get my drift), so you'd imagine it will show up on the 12z rolling now...

Cold rain all day. Miserably driving rain down on us. Better than the warm rain muck of a couple of weeks back though!

Bold call Mr. Murr, I do hope you are correct, but I'm not buying it... YET! I know GFS always deepens the Atlantic, but it just looks too strong to me, not minor corrections needed, but large scale ones. We need the jet to get lost down to Spain for a while. That would be a nice start!

Happy new year guys and gals. I've just had the best new years gift ever. Just out of Star Wars, the force awakens. SWEET JESUS THAT WAS AMAZING!!!!

You'll smash that record sadly BFTV, the output for Tues/Wed is particularly bad!

Funny thing is, the broad pattern is still there, good outputs showing height rises in northerly areas! Interesting model watching anyway!

We deserve it on the east coast... Haven't had snow since 2010!

You're all wrong... Tonight the GFS got its flight data from Santa's sleigh! It's just magiced up the NWP to give us all a happy Christmas! And so I wish you all a very merry Christmas!

Indeed, it may not happen, but it looks like the Elves were playing with the NWP while Santa was away! Happy Christmas to you all!

You are of course correct, but it's absolutely pointless looking at 850's at this range.

All to be taken with a large pinch of seasonable salt at this distance, but it is refreshing to see some output that at least generates interest!

If it gets to 8, we will have a good shot of HLB taking hold to our north. Whether that effects us enough to get snow and cold is not certain, but it greatly increases the chances.

I may be wrong here, but does phase 7 not have implications for CONUS getting colder??? I seem to recall it had a negative effect on our cold ambitions, especially with negative temp anomalies on east coast USA meant some rapid cyclogenesis spinning Atlantic storms our way!

Backstards! The indigenous nomadic community no doubt!

Serious problems for people in the Cork and Kerry regions and Athlone again... The water is rising all the time. Lots of localised flooding in around Dublin too, causing traveling difficulties! A lot of warnings about for ice tonight, with lots of water about this could get quite messy!

Just rain here, but lots of it. 33mm since midnight!

I cycled to work this morning in my cycling shorts. Silly, silly me. stained glass windowin freezing! Took me hours to warm back up again!!! Serious danger for the SW tomorrow with the rain in the 50mm + range on already saturated water tables... God help them! Maybe a bit of lamp-post watching tonight?? As the first clouds come in, it may fall as sleet or snow!

Nice one lads. Great to see. It rained here :-( Serious issues for the flooded parts (just saw the RTE news at 9 there with reports from around Athlone, dreadful flood damage) going by the NWP, the rain predicted for Friday/Saturday is worryingly heavy looking. Any defences that were holding, could break! Poor folk.

Absolutely bucketing down now in high winds!

Me and you both brother.

It still beggars belief, the amount of people that get sucked in when GFS/ECM etc throw in one of those runs, and the amount of posts increase in here with the "it's gonna happen" crew. Please take the advice of the sensible in here. By all means have faith, but please stop hanging on every run like it's gospel! If/when we see a few 00z and 12z runs repeating the general long wave patterns of preferably placed HP cells, then, by all means... But it gets very tiresome otherwise!!! Not for me, I find it hilarious, but you will wear yourselves out. Trust me, I've been there. I was that soldier!

Can I ask please, that you do continue. I for one, find the insight very interesting. It also does sometime, pick up signals for changes in weather patterns, and keeps my mind sharp looking for these changes as they near the short and medium range NWP. I certainly value this input Knocker.