glosteroldboy

Yes. Must admit when I seen the model thread last night was surprised some people were getting carried away. It was one model run from one model and the GFS is always doing this!

I was saying the same as you a 5/6 weeks back but it's getting very tiring/boring looking for the next cold snap that just doesn't seem to want to happen again this winter.

Doesn;t look like it, absolutely no snow on the cards for 90% of the country and no chance of a proper freeze by the looks of things. I remember people saying winter was over back in January and I always said seems a bit early to write it off but I say as we enter latter Feb we can do so now, I'm looking for the first sunny 20 degree day now.

All seems a bit meh anyway, chance of a few cm's on higher ground that will melt very quickly (if it ever settles?) once the showers pass.

OK with winter seemingly all but over by the looks of things now (bar a bit of a flimsy attempt next week) the question on my mind is the last month or so just a blip in what seemed like the return to colder winters or was 2010 and parts of winter 2009 just a blip in the mild winters of the previous 10-15 years? You see alot of stuff about low solar activity etc and the likelihood of another cold winter next year and beyond but I guess no one really knows, only time will tell!

Someone said he also said no more rain for Glos this afternoon and it's peeing down now. :lol: But I don't think there's any doubt it's going to get colder? How cold is still to be decided.

Any evidence for that or is it just a bit of a myth? I mean they had lots of snow throughout January and we didn't see any here. Its true the weather systems tend to track over here but doesn't mean it will fall as snow.

This appears to be a possibility atm, "battleground scenario" being mentioned, the SW could do very well out of such a situation. As it is though I think most of is have learnt not to get too excited by charts beyond a few days, even getting too excited by snow forecasts more than 12 hours in advance has given us alot of let downs all ready this winter.

Seems to have died down here, for now anyway. Yesterday was worse than today.

All doom and gloom in the model thread again, can never get to excited so far out, more often than not it wont happen.

I do think some people have got greedy following the last couple of years and are always chasing the prolonged severe snowy cold spell and just dismiss things like the cold snap of recent days, and it's certainly been cold with hard frosts that hang around all day in places. This Jan is still far better than Jans of 98-08

At least it's cold if nothing else, harsh over night frost and temps didn't really pick up much until the afternoon peaking around 5 degrees. This sort of weather is much better than the rain even if there's no chance of snow, at least you can get outside and do stuff without getting drenched. Wonders what we will have seen come the end of Feb.

You said it, why start getting excited by some cold on one model run in FI? Might disappear over the weekend! Lets wait until it's a bit closer by and with agreement from all the main models before getting excited. Apparently the latest GFS is having none of it, a long way to go before we can start cracking open the champers. On a cold related note, parts of Newfoundland in Canada had a 20-40cm dumping yesterday, their first real snow of the winter after a remarkably mild couple of months. Apparently alot of schools there still managed to open today!!

Been pretty fortunate up here this week, the worst of it seems to bypass us or fall in darkness hours, the days not too bad other than windy, bit wet yesterday afternoon. Wonder how much longer we can get away with a thread called cold spell discussion.

The fact is we had a great month of cold (record breaking once in a 30 year month), had we had a mild December and the cold spell had just been starting now until mid Feb I think people would be delighted and soon forget about a mild December. If it remains mild or less cold/snowy till the end of Feb then I think people will be disappointed, you expect the best winter weather in Jan/Feb but us coldies can hardly think we've been hard done by if we don't see any more snow this winter. Though seems a bit early to write the obituaries yet!

That small clump of showers has just hit here, moving quite fast only a brief burst, the more prolonged stuff looks like coming to Cornwall now, going to be wet on the ground tomorrow morning. There is always a positive to this spell, cuts down on the heating bill for a while and will help keep the reservoirs full (not that they're probably ever in much danger of dropping too much in the West!) Can't believe this is going to be the end of our snow chances this winter, I think we were so spoiled in the 2010 winter months that people get used to it and unless we see something simular it doesn't seem that good....when i reality I think this Jan will still have been a much better month than we experienced in the previous 10 January prior to 2009.

Well was expecting something a bit wintry in Glos early on (perhaps it did when we was asleep?). Not even raining now, doesn't look as bad here for the rest of the day as initially thought. Quite looking forward to a wet and windy spell now, haven't seen one for ages (was out the country in November).

I agree with all of that, I think people start fretting that the first sign of anything mild is a return to the baron winters from pre 2009, not helped by "mildies" who love baiting in the model thread! After a phenomenal run in 2010 winter months (Jan, Feb, Dec) we were due something less cold but seems way too soon to think winters over.

Rather underwhelmed by a brief snow event and the impending outbreak of wet weather that's going to follow. I wouldn't be surprised if even Glos misses out on a brief snow event now as it seems to be shifting North with each run and when you're expecting snowfall it always seems to alter.

I think that was always likely to be the case as we got nearer the time, the warnings covered the whole country before. But as we are all probably well aware the Met warnings aren't gospel and we don't know really what will happen until it actually arrives, might end up being all rain for the entire region or might end up with snow falling falling further south, it's going to be wet for sure!

Doesn't seem very likely to be the end of winter though so early even with a mild incursion, we are living in different times. Know you're half joking but seems like soon as there's a sign of mild spell some throw in the towel or delight in saying that's it, winters over. 1963 didn't really even kick off until late January? Not saying we're likely to have a 63 but we have no idea how long it may turn milder.

One last fling of winter on Jan the 7th......what???

I wouldn't read anything into it yet, though it's not very often you escape rain at Glasto.

Could that be a bit of luck/co-incidence? What were the models showing in the days after the 3rd of December, did the snow disappear for a while?

So a warm spell building now, peaking on the weekend, then a return to a Northerly and cooler conditions next week. Which would also bring the risk of the volcanic ash (it's ok though they will just raise the safe limit again if it's a problem).