The Northern Ramper

Now?

Painful

Surely this will be snow.

We could be in a prime location i feel.

A big clump of precipitation at North Wales now, if this can survive Snowdonia its game on for us.

I have a feeling in my bones that i am going to see some of the white stuff during the next 24 hours, its been too long.

Even more importantly ala gp's recent posts are the height rises between greenland and russia.

Rock solid for weeks now

I don't think i have seen GP as confident as this before over an outcome.

I'm struggling to believe the GFS past 96, i genuinely feel more is going to be made of the heights to our north west on or around the 22nd-23rd.

I am going to call that we are going to see heights developinitially to our north-west and then see the troughing go further south pulling the cold uppers over us from a nnw direction. From there i can see heights strengthen to the north east pulling the russian high further west.

It would be nice if people posted pics of discussed charts.

In a stick a tail on a donkey kind of way. You can tell that it isn't using the same calculations leading upto 192 as it is after, it reverts to type despite anything it puts in place beforehand.

If people cannot see that the gfs low res is a joke then i give up, every run it just goes against the set up pre 192.

I found the trends of the vortex and Russian high further west, heights over greenland and the vortex displacing quite promising.

Heights growing over Greenland by the weekend? This is setting up nicely.

The interesting part of this post for me is the azores being pulled west which the gfs doesnt follow but others do. A less amplified jet, azores west and undercutting lows suggests cold from the east to me.

With the info GP posted last night i am very confident the Gfs is miles out.

Different how? Further east?

Can you stick to the models please.

So after a stand off between the Ecm and the GFS which seemed to last an eternity the ECM gave up this morning and moved over to the GFS stating i give up you win. Only for the GFS to turn around six hours later and state i was joking all along and move towards the ECM. To be honest after accepting a flat pattern this morning there are now strong suggestions of blocking appearing and good cold potential, very confused by the models especially as we are told that the 12z GFS is the most progressive when it comes to the jet. If the ECM sticks with its pattern from the 0z i might actually give up.

Those expecting the 18z to move over towards the ECM later should take into account the info on the earlier model thread today where there is less data used in the 6z and 18z compared to the other two runs.

I expect the ecm to be nearer the final outcome however the GFS cannot embarrass itself 144 hrs before the outcome.

Indeed Some of our greatest falls in this area is when a battleground situation stalls over us and then the block remains too strong, this is certainly an option with this kind of set up.

Its thirteen days away.