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The Northern Ramper

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Everything posted by The Northern Ramper

  1. The Northern Ramper
    I take your point, the problem about expectations being some knowledgeable posters keep mentioning historic months in years in realtion to what the potential could be. Anyhow enjoying the current evolution, i fully expect the models to start throwing better charts out once they get to grips with the stratospheric changes.
  2. The Northern Ramper
    I usually call it when the ensembles split.
  3. The Northern Ramper
    If you are basing your forecast on overnight fi modelling then yes 50/50 is correct.
  4. The Northern Ramper
    Sorry for sounding dumb but can somebody explain to me what this means? I also sense a growing confidence by Mr Point in a pattern change of a cold nature in line with his forecast.
  5. The Northern Ramper
    Happy new year all, this is the 4th consecutive gfs run that has showed the vortex splitting on January the 13th in this manner. Yes it is at t300 but yesterday it was t324, surely a trend being picked up on by this model.
  6. The Northern Ramper
    And yet the trend of it pushing up into the vortex continues on the 18z for the same day, January 13th. Pushing it down into Western Europe where we need it if we get an Easterly further on. How useless would the thread be if everyone posted a chart with (found this for coldies) underneath.
  7. The Northern Ramper
    Anyhow the models, I am not disappointed by the 12z run, although chartwise it is not as progressive as the 6z it still shows a trend for the vortex to be under threat with our high trying to push north. FI is supposed to be about trends and that is two consecutive runs now around Jan 13th suggesting this. Oh and if somebody would tell me how to do a thumbnail i would.
  8. The Northern Ramper
    After a cool/mild zonal mix in the reliable the 6z shows in FI what i believe to be a pattern changer with Northern blocking moving into place, a splitting of the vortex in process and the real prospect of cold to come from our east. In line with what GP forecast too i may add.
  9. The Northern Ramper
    Superb post Mr Data Hopefully if we do get a ssw it will happen at a time where a month down the line we can feel the full benefit, if things fall into place.
  10. The Northern Ramper
    How far away is this? Do you have fi in the world of strat watch? Any chance of more meat on the bones of that post for a newbie reading via a mobile.
  11. The Northern Ramper
    Near me that.
  12. The Northern Ramper
    Bloody hell, wasn't expecting to wake up to this. White out.
  13. The Northern Ramper
    Now snow
  14. The Northern Ramper
    Snowy,Sleet and Hail in this shower so far. I am guessing that i am right on the borderline.
  15. The Northern Ramper
    Woke up to a covering of snow and wet snow falling from the sky.
  16. The Northern Ramper
    You understand that January is a different month to December, yes?
  17. The Northern Ramper
    Had a flurry earlier but nothing since, quite dark outside and precipitation showing on rain today for the last hour but nothing here.
  18. The Northern Ramper
    How we manage to be too far south and north for snow but spot on for rain is annoying.
  19. The Northern Ramper
    Much happier with the GFS track on fridays storm.
  20. The Northern Ramper
    I hope there is a downgrade or position switch, my location is quite exposed on a west facing hill and i fancy having a roof for xmas.
  21. The Northern Ramper
    Interesting signals starting to develop, will keep an eye on developments over the next few days.
  22. The Northern Ramper
    Snow shower here
  23. The Northern Ramper
    New streamer forming just below the one which had dissipated.
  24. The Northern Ramper
    Cars frozen here
  25. The Northern Ramper
    Top streamer dieing out, bottom losing intensity?
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