The Northern Ramper

I quite like the grouping with Yorkshire, the weather in my Location is much closer to Halifax for instance than most North West locations.

I notice a small band heading South, should be here around t-time and i suspect it will be Wintry here and in Ashton.

We had wet snow at lunch and i am about 10-15 miles from you and not much higher.

If we get strong enough wind from a west,North Westerly direction we always get showers across this region. Last year one Saturday morning we had a constant streamer across the region through my area and we got pasted, none of the models or the met office picked up on it until it happened.

Rain turned to sleet and then wet snow for a short spelll around 30 minutes ago due to evaporative cooling i suspect, as the day gets cooler i expect these showers to become more wintry in nature. Wet Snow on the higher ground In Littleborough 30 mins ago its coming. That 38m asl makes a difference lol

Recent outputs very disappointing for snow lovers, could be a very disappointing first third of Winter.

Cold ramper

Could this be a sign!!!!

Met office changes to their updates coupled with models showing a settled mid month gives optamism for a pleasant August.

Its been delightful to the west of the pennines all week and things seem set to continue in the short-medium term.

I define warm as low-mid 20's, its a personal thing and not everyone has to agree.

The forseeable is warm,dry and pleasant. Happy with that.

and? What is the significance of this FI run Gavin? Well done to the GFS for sticking to its guns, having done well with todays forecast from 240 out and now bringing in the settled spell from 216 to within t96. Looks to me like some will be eating humble pie this week.

It has called this weekend settling down since 240 hrs out, the occasional wobble on one of its runs but generally every day it has counted this scenario down to now t48. The following wednesday it is currently forecasting it has counted down from 216 to now 120. It may change but it is rock solid on that it is bring it six hours nearer with every run and not the usually pushing back by 24 hours that happens on a FI tease.

The gfs is continuing to be rock solid with bringing in this warm spell next week, settled from weekend.

96 Hours to saturdays weather has been consistent since 240 on the runs i have seen, i am very confident that is reliable. I then believe the high will move in, that is fi. I am on a phone John, bit of a struggle to post links etc.

I must be looking at something else this morning to Mushy, the settled spell begins this weekend and is now looking reliable. The progression north east of the azores high settles nicely across the country by 216 with 15 850's suggesting hot weather. Fi yes but its a plausible run and the gfs has counted down to this weekend from 240 very consistently in my opinion.

Looks very consistant the gfs, it has counted down a fairly settled looking weekend from fi into the near reliable.

The gfs 0z has been pretty consistent over the last few days of high attempting to build in next weekend. It is down to 144 now and will soon be reliable.

I know what you are saying, its pleasant when it happens but you know it will be short lived. It just feels different to previous years to me, its almost as if things have been shunted forward a month compared to previous years. I appreciate there is no science or logic to this but i fancy the pattern to be for a mixed July and then a settled August, akin to a settled September but warmer temps and slightly longer days. That Greenland high is going to be removed at some point, fortunately for us we have had it early enough to not wreck all of summer and if we lose it for the end of July warm conditions will be allowed to build northwards as the jet stream retreats. Two or three weeks like last winter, not six to eight weeks.

What i find ironic is in winter the Greenland high can't leave quick enough and yet in summer it hangs around for weeks on end. The weather has not been too bad over the last couple of weeks, it certainly is not on a par with 2007. It was hot at the beginning of last week and this weekend is looking extremely pleasant. Going off the models we may get a mixed few weeks with showers, longer spells of rain and dry days all mixed together but no real sustained heat. However i feel as the month goes on and into August the Greenland block will lose its fight and things will begin to shift north. I still have hopes of a pleasantly warm August.

You mean like the highs from ukmo and nogaps that you posted earlier.

When on the bbc national news they call it a heatwave its no surprise people misinterpret.

I'm just peeved i had to move my holidays from June to August, i hope that suttle differences occur which lead to an improved August.

2003? It was mid 30's almost everywhere.