I remember January 84 was such a chart Nick, granted it only effected the Midlands Northwards but it brought about a two week cold spell with copious amounts of snow. Hopefully someone can confirm this with some charts from back then.
I disagree as there a number of ways of getting a cold spell to these shore with the PV in it's usual place, of course 9/10 we do need it to play ball.
Well at least snow can lay on a sceptics head though I seriously doubt it would on proponents of AGW, what with all that heat escaping on top due to a lack of insulation in the noggin area.
I've probably read more of the official stance than your good self Mike, it's just that I'm not taken in by conjecture and a global dataset which tells us that even though CO2 continues to rise unabated, global temps remains as you were.
Indeed Gav, it may well have got March right but it's been way off the mark since then. Just goes to show you may as well look at tea leafs and seaweed and you'll still stand a better chance than long range models.
Your in the wrong thread worst mike. So you don't read both sides of the argument and science such as Bob Tisdale, Judith Curry etc, etc, or are you another closed minded individual who can only digest what he is told rather than seek answers?
I rarely read WUWT as unlike your good self I can think for myself thank you. Edit; on my iPhone why can't I quote this post in the appropriate thread, it keeps turning up here?
Over on the self haters thread ( only joking ) some are getting there frilly knickers in a twist over the likes Watts and co, I wonder if we could lay the blame at their door for the ongoing pause in global surface temps.
Looking at the output and I have to say it's a dogs dinner if it's a deep cold spell your after, I see no signs of a change for the foreseeable and in fact I wouldn't at all be surprised if and when a change does come about it will be of the mild and wet variety. As for wave activity this and vortex that, all I know is that the Northern arm of the jet is just far too strong and until we see that subside any hopes of a sustained cold spell are but just a dream.
Well at this current time the outlook is pretty dross for us coldies, I suppose the best we can hope for is the EC32 painting a mild and zonal outlook.
Back to the model output or shall I say lack of interesting things to talk about. I still can't see heights becoming established over Scandinavia within the next 10 days at least, the weather really does look very benign for the foreseeable but one thing it doesn't look is mild except perhaps NW Scotland and Ireland, average at best and below average for the SE.
I think the whole ens and co have been woeful, I've never seen so much chopping and changing in such a short period of time, that goes for the alleged newly revamped EC32 as well.
He also forgot to mention the winter of 2009/10 which was the coldest for over a hundred years. Still why let the facts get in the way of a good old wind up.
That is one crumb of comfort for us coldies as the models have been very volatile over the last week or two swinging from one scenario to another, in fact this is the worst I've seen them perform past the +120 mark.
To be honest I really can't see anything other than a Rex block at best in the 10-14 day timeframe and even then I would be hesitant. I think we could be looking at more of the same really with heights if anything slowly sinking SE.