Wivenswold

I thought an increase in the amplitude of the MJO led to increased volatility in the atmosphere, which could mean slack low pressure over us. I could be totally and utterly wrong though. I know in tropical areas it makes Hurricane formation more likely.

Some real winners and losers this year. I've had some dreadfully bad luck thanks to the Colchester Thunder Vacuum, averaging 1 storm per year over the last 5 summers, for the South East that's a low figure. But this year I've had 3 storms overhead and 4 more could be heard from here. Add a couple out to see that light up the dark night sky and it's been an amazing year. On the flip side, the North Sea is incredibly warm this year, we'll struggle to see settling snow before the year is out.

A few showers going up along the Essex/Suffolk border. It currently feels like a Caribbean evening here, warm, humid with a strong breeze that hints that's something is brewing.

Looks like some cells have popped up SW of Sevenoaks. They appear to be heading straight for Wennington, where the awful wildfire is still in progress. Hopefully they'll dampen it all down shortly.

Yes, climate deniers hang your heads in shame. Hopefully this landmark day will increase pressure on Government, once they've gotten back to doing the governing bit of the job.

40.2oC in fact, so 41oC is possible yet.

Looking like this will be a "Heatwave", for East Anglia anyway.

Nobody is rooting for more people to suffer. This is a thread to discuss and speculate on what data is coming out of the model runs. Fans of extreme weather usually keep their social media friends informed of potential upcoming hazards, the more people who understand and have an interest in meteorology, the better informed and prepared the country will be. If you want to rant, direct it to the worldwide governments and climate change-denying lobbyists who influence Government decisions leading to a watering-down of Climate targets. Shout at people driving around stupidly powerful cars, Stop taking flights and make sure you vote for a political party with a serious and comprehensive "green agenda". This extreme event is a further example of how global warming is the biggest threat facing the human race. No-one on here should feel ashamed about being excited about experiencing a historic weather event.

Train operators met with Network Rail today. They will be issuing "Do not travel" warnings in time for tomorrow's morning peak. Widespread reductions in timetables (in particular on high speed electrified lines) and speed restrictions between 12:00 and 20:00. The reasons for the speed restrictions relate to the continuously welded track that's now used across the network (that's why trains don't have that reassuring rhythmic clackety-clack as they go along these days). Old track had regular gaps into which heated rails could expand, without that gap, a continuous strip of track will buckle. Then there are the overhead wires that also sag in the heat. Put those together and it's safer to slow the trains down and space them out a bit.

And the bigger, wider concern is the frequency of these heat events. They used to be every 20 years or so, 3 of the top five are in the last 3 years and that could become 4 in the last 3 years by next weekend. I had hoped that warnings about global warming speeding up were pessimistic but records are being broken nearly every year all over the planet.

I'm rarely in the perfect spot for storms but that was awesome. About an hour and a half since I heard the first rumble in the garden. Still rumbling away over the sea and a fair few decent flashes still going on. Sorry to all who missed out, you can have the next batch.

Yes. if you get that, so will I. At the very least we should see some lightning tonight.

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I'd hate to state the obvious, but the reason there are so many storms in the South East is because we're closer to the warmth continental Europe can produce. When it comes to snow, it sucks here, but I stayed in the south because the summers are better down here. Best storms are in the Midlands, East Anglia and the South. Elsewhere you're not going to see as many.

Almost tropical in feel here in NE Essex, big spots of rain for a few minutes, followed by 10 minutes of hot sunshine. Really muggy, I think this might be a surprisingly good weekend for many areas in the South.

I'd sit in 33oC air all day long. I'm stuck in the wrong climate zone.

Looks like we're in the sweet spot as far as the models are shaping up, milder for a start. A lot of unhappy northern types in the Model Discussion thread, I got my head bitten off for challenging the popular theory on there that it will feel like October for the rest of June. I guess we're lucky to live in the driest part of the UK and do better than most while the Atlantic fires-up and pressure rises from the Azores.

Line of showers in a line from Kent to the Netherlands, these will kick off shortly as we approach main initiation at 00z.

First flash seen south of me here in NE Essex. Likely the storm over Cranbrook, Kent. We're lucky to have very little light pollution south of my location as it's mostly mud and/or muddy water.

Cell is just appearing to the right of the Eastbourne seafront cam

We have a potential tropical storm heading into the Atlantic right now, I'd wait until we've seen how the models handle it before getting hung-up on the long-range outlook. I feel optimistic that the Azores will ridge in time to have a warm dry spell in the UK, we may just have to wait until the middle of the month.

Erm, well, no. Take this set up in October and it wouldn't be rain for some, it would be sleet or snow over high ground. I've sat out in the park in the sunshine today, a North Easterly in October even on a sunny day would be frigid here. So no, it's nothing like October even if it's wet, windy or whatever other extreme you want to pluck from the charts. Maybe you're just fed up that it's looking disappointing for the end of the week and possibly a few days beyond here in early June.

Seeing distant flashes. Worrying that cell South of London is calming down.

Shocking lack of live streaming cameras in London.

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