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Wivenswold

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Everything posted by Wivenswold

  1. Wivenswold
    950 mb! Is that nudging close to a record for the UK? Just checked a system in 1989 was 948mb which appears to be the record for Southern England.
  2. Wivenswold
    Yes, all eyes on today's update. Let's not forget that the 1987 storm was forecast to affect France (just like what the GFS is forecasting) right up until about 6 hours' before. The science is better known now but any relief about the UK missing the worst should be put on hold for a couple of days.
  3. Wivenswold
    I hear some parts of the country have had a month's worth of weather warnings already today. Could be up to 3 inches of warnings in some places by Saturday.
  4. Wivenswold
    North Essex is going to have a month's worth of rain in 24 hours and our rivers are full. So it's not at all strange that the east of England is included.
  5. Wivenswold
    I'm sure there are some in the affected areas who wished this was a "non-event". Warnings are just that. They warn of possible risks. Not every warning becomes an actuality.
  6. Wivenswold
    As I mentioned in the SE thread. Currently ECM is closest to the latest pressure charts, though Agnes is at 1013mb rather than the forecast 1012mb and the ridge to its north is also stronger. Small differences while Agnes forms could lead to bigger changes down the line. If pressure drops more slowly, she will take a more southerly track bringing the south coast and possibly the South of England into the warning area. Warmer Atlantic than normal too, so there are many variables in play with Agnes.
  7. Wivenswold
    It's a bit too early to be ruling the South East out of seeing impacts due to Agnes. ECM currently the closest to the what's happening off the Newfoundland coast albeit central pressure of Agnes is slightly higher as is the ridge of high pressure to its North. Tiny differences but they could lead to a more southerly track if Agnes takes longer to deepen, though the worst situation for us, a channel low, does seem to be unlikely at this stage.
  8. Wivenswold
    I totally agree with your summary of risks @Jo Farrow . I used to work on the railway and now work in risk management. These are exactly the sort of set-ups that will cause huge disruption due to one or two weaknesses with the infrastructure or a rogue, insecure/unsecured item damaging the infrastructure. Trees are in full leaf, garden furniture is still out and this is the first test of the system's resilience to gales in a while. Likewise with the roads, one downed tree or overturned lorry can bring regions to a grinding halt. I can see a lot of problems come Thursday morning, little problems maybe but that doesn't mean the results are insignificant. I've advised my Facebook friends to avoid travel later on Wednesday and to have a back-up plan if they have important things to do on Thursday. That should be the message to the public at the moment.
  9. Wivenswold
    Absolutely. The only people who sneer at those with hobbies are dullards without a soul. They are the ones to avoid whereas hobbyists always have an interesting tale to tell.
  10. Wivenswold
    I'll take an extra day of heatwave and enjoy some storms tomorrow instead. Hope the rest of the country has a ball, I'll be in my garden enjoying proper heat for the last time this year.
  11. Wivenswold
    Got a family party here tomorrow. Absolutely chuffed that it happens to be on one of the hottest September days on record. For once I don't want a storm here.
  12. Wivenswold
    We've had some decent thunderstorms in October before so this may not be our last chance of the year. While the forecast is disappointing for the South East it could change which each model run now.
  13. Wivenswold
    It looks like a nowcast situation, in these situations I'm glad I'm not a professional forecaster. Based on apps and some websites, a whole swathe of people in the warning area will moan that "the forecast is always wrong" when they don't get an isolated storm. I'd recommend everyone spends 30 seconds reading Met Office forecasts every day or watch a full weather bulletin on their You Tube page rather than looking at symbols on apps.
  14. Wivenswold
    To my less than trained eye, ECM is playing with an Omega Block at day 7 and another slightly less extreme warm and humid blast next weekend. I can only hope as we're having parties in the garden two weekends running. However, if GFS plays out we're wet, cold and indoors. Not just a lack of consistency at Day 8, a totally different set-up for the whole of the North Atlantic and Europe.
  15. Wivenswold
    Bubbling-up nicely over London at the moment. Lots of moisture for the atmosphere to suck up here in Essex. Winds aloft probably too fast for any storm cells though.
  16. Wivenswold
    If it moves slowly and stays over water longer then Cat 4 or 5 isn't out of the question but yes, it's currently forecast to be Cat 2-3 by most models. Less than 48 hours to co-ordinate a large evacuation of prone coastline must be a nightmare. Residents of Tampa and Panama City should be ready for any movement of the track too. With hurricanes either side of Florida, flooding could be really widespread.
  17. Wivenswold
    My interpretation was that the threat for today was surface based home grown storms. So while activity in the Channel is welcome as it's showing instability, today really is a nowcast situation. It looks messy up there at the moment but the sun is coming out here in Essex and it feels very warm. I'm optimistic at this stage.
  18. Wivenswold
    Similarly, as I'm home tomorrow, I recommend any fans of storms to evacuate the Colchester area immediately to avoid disappointment.
  19. Wivenswold
    Rumbles of thunder here in Essex. It's been like a monsoon here for the last 2 hours.
  20. Wivenswold
    Radar looks weird, like swooshes of precipitation as if there are serious amounts of rotation, I'm sure it's just me looking for things after the sighting of the sting jet.
  21. Wivenswold
    Oct 87 had a funny smell about it on the Thursday evening. Windows went from clear to misted up inside as the higher winds arrived. That was the strangest of nights, never heard wind make that sound since. It was like rolling thunder.
  22. Wivenswold
    Radar is exploding over Kent. The time has arrived. @Thunders - London smelled like the Med today, if that helps.
  23. Wivenswold
    19oC with 17oC dew point here on the Tendring Peninsula. For us, that's pretty juicy.
  24. Wivenswold
    I've seen nights when there's nothing suggesting there's enough juice up there for a single cell then it all suddenly kicks off over the SE. They generally turn out better than waiting on an imported storm to make it.
  25. Wivenswold
    Considering that the Met Office seem pretty confident that Sussex/Kent/London and East Anglia could see a "lot of lightning" there seems to be remarkable pessimism on this thread from those within the warning zone. I'm staying up, if it don't happen so be it, there will be others this autumn.
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