Wivenswold

Yes, cell between Swindon and Oxford. Flashes seen inland from an Isle of Wight webcam. Popping up everywhere down that way.

The ultimate geek cam, with sound, if it kicks off around Epping later.

Cloud bases looking good over Saint-Malo

Oh to still have a 6th floor office in Southend overlooking the Thames Estuary. I think that might be the sweet spot.

We had one of these systems about 5 years ago. Nothing seemingly doing then Boom, storms erupting all over the SE. Had 3 good storms in one evening that time, though it was hotter and later in the summer.

I have Fibromyalgia, Before I got it I used to treat comments about pain related to weather with some scepticism. Now I know when there's rain within 150 miles because my joints stop working properly. Bonkers isn't it? I have no Thunder warning system though.

Yeah, pretty universal agreement that the band of showers across the Channel will fade soon. Not ruling out a storm but I always alert my friend in Battle of storm risks and he's not getting a warning yet.

Still a chance of rain and the ground was fairly moist this morning, so I'd wait under this evening. I think EA (and virtually the whole UK) will miss out with this plume. I have a feeling we'll see a few more this summer.

Agreed, but it may be relevant to how long they last without the feed of warmer air on land. They may make it tonight but I'm putting some caution out there so people don't complain about this being a "Bust" tonight. As we know some will.

Conditions need to be really favourable to get a storm to survive the cool air over the still warming seas of the Channel. Enjoy the warm night and maybe save some chasing miles for tomorrow night in the far SE or midweek (if all goes well). It's early doors yet, lots of plume potential if this set-up remains in place for a while.

I don't get too excited about French export storms until June, that English Channel and the Thames Estuary are still pretty cold at this time of the year which cuts off fuel for the storms and they often end up as showers or spells of heavy rain (which does at least smell nice this time of the year). However, noting NOAA sea temperature anomalies chart from a few days ago, sea surface temperatures are about 3oC above average so hopefully my 49 summers' experience may count for nothing.

Highly unlikely, when you hear thunder you're hearing the sound of air expanding along the length of the lightning fork. Having stood within 10 metres of a direct hit it's more of a sizzle/cracking sound than a bang because you're only close to a small part of the fork. The biggest threat to your ear drums comes from wearing headphones with the volume turned up.

Science starts with a hypothesis, so yours can't be ruled out until you've tested it. I'd love to find out that the lack of flights over two years slowed the warming process significantly. We'll need to assess the next few years and see what the results say.

I think some people are not realising that maximum temperatures in forecasts can be misleading at this time of the year. If you're forecast to have breaks in the clouds then the rise in temperature caused by a strong sun will not be negligible. If your day's maximum is, say, 7oC you could still have a significant snowfall in the same 4 or 6 hour period. Not saying it'll happen, but it's a funny time of the year and over 50 summers have learned to not rule-out snowfall in the South East until June. Our seasons are definitely getting more variable, only the UK Summer seems to be tangibly different.

Got to admit I feel for you, you're not far enough north to get those snow showers in Northerly set-ups and too far inland for the Thames streamers that are usually the cause of significant snowfall in the SE. At least you're in a good spot for home-grown storms in the summer and you're also a safe distance from our onshore breezes that blight early summer and suck the life out of imported storms around the Colchester area in particular.

There does appear to be a stronger area of wind along the Essex and Suffolk border, winds here have picked up and the power cut map is flashing red all around me. I suspect there's a few members who are without power now.

Our postman is always in shorts and he's in his sixties. I have fibromyalgia and I'm indoors I've got 3 layers on and just lit a fire. Just seeing him makes me feel cold.

First big gust here near Colchester.

We're letting ours out (we have 4). High winds are an assault on their senses and they don't like it as it reduces their ability to sense nearby risks, so ours are only going out to empty themselves then legging-it straight back home. All are now sleeping by the fire.

Southend weather station showing a 50mph gust recently. 20-30 mph to go!

When the blue sky arrives, you're in the start of the build-up of winds. It's going to catch a lot of people out.

If you're posting about this being a dud or a load of hype, we'll remember you later when we're picking up roofing slates and trying to hold our fences up.

Radio 5 weather expert is saying a "sting jet" situation a la 1987 and St. Jude's Storms is unlikely today, that's the first bit of good news I've heard.

I don't know why Radio 5 keep reading out messages from idiots saying that primary school closures are overkill because this is just another storm. I appreciate the need for balance but they wouldn't read out anti-vax or flat earther messages so why read out stuff from those who want to be wise before the event? Sorry, it's annoying me.

Stand up to bully bosses everyone. You have the right to not travel to work if you feel it is not safe to do so.