Wivenswold

Assume nothing at this stage. As an aside on the housing thing, old houses built better than new. Most new homes are made mostly of oil-based wood composite and oil-treated wooden batons and are rarely designed for longevity. I deal with a lot of resident association legal disputes. Pre 1980's homes = good. Post-1980 homes = big pile of hastily thrown together material that's got a lot of oil based substances in it. There will be a crisis with them once the solvent keeping new homes together starts to degrade in a few decades' time. Buy an unfashionable old council house, cheap and built like tanks.

Yep, absolutely. I worked at Basildon station that day, wires came down on both lines into London so I took 4 buses home to East London, a 5 hour journey for what was normally a 20 min commute, luckily the wind had died down by the time I had to sit on a double-decker in Romford. When gusts of 75mph hit the NW coast of Scotland, the locals bring the washing in. When 75mph gusts hit London, miles of railway will have wires down, roads blocked by falling masonry not to mention a few big trees down and widespread power cuts, rivers are full too. London and the South East will be chaos if this happens, I really hope everyone stays safe.

If we can learn anything from the Dudley downgrade is that this is a fast evolving situation and nothing should be ruled in or out just yet. One or two of the model runs will have already got Eunice spot on, there are a lot to chose from though.

Winners and losers for this one. If it heads further south it could be really impactful for our friends and neighbours on the other side of the Channel. Totally agree with comments about the Met Office and the work they've done since 1987. They are my first port of call and I urge all of us to refer our social media friends towards more reliable sources and ignore what the newspapers are screaming at them. The trend that is emerging is that the South and West of the UK and Ireland are most likely to be affected, but London, the South East and the Midlands and exposed West Coastal areas also on high alert. North of France should also be on alert it would seem.

I'm from the South East and was in my last year at school in 1987. And even I'm utterly bored of the pointless 1987 equivalency. Besides, The Burns Day Storm in 1990 was a far bigger tragedy affecting a far bigger portion of the UK, including the South East. I blame the "top ten", "instant jeopardy" culture of late, something's always got to be the winner. Science ain't like that. Both of this week's storms will bring a fresh bunch of risks and I'm sure a few meteorological surprises, but it really isn't shouldn't be a game of "Best Storm Ever".

I don't think that's what the poster was trying to explain and it's incredibly misleading to compare that unique event with this unique event, by comparing every windstorm with Oct 87 you ignore that while it got all the headlines there were a number of factors that caused the mayhem it did. Northumbria was supposed to have had a "once in 100 years" storm at the end of last year. Can the good people of Northumbria go about their business on Wednesday and Friday safe in the knowledge that it won't be as bad as their December storm for another 100 years? This being a very complex science, and one that is evolving due to global warming, means that it's all a bit more complicated than comparing storms like it's some game of Top Trumps.

Pretty sure Brighton hit 19oC in January 1998. I was in a t-shirt walking along the front that day, glorious it was. Then we had 18oC here in Essex a couple of Februarys ago. Meanwhile in June 8oC and raining.

Absolutely, for the sake of losing a day's trade, the staff can stay home. Less traffic on the roads means fewer incidents and quicker emergency service response times. So I think it's absolutely right that Ireland's shutting down. I wish I lived in a pragmatic and compassionate country.

At least we can grow lemons in our gardens down here. All those northern types will have to trudge through the snow to buy them in shops. I really am grasping at some very tiny straws.

I am not expecting a covering of snow in the morning. We've got so much coastline around this part of Essex that it's a struggle to get decent snow when it's already marginal further inland. The North Sea is warmer than average at the moment too, may have had an effect elsewhere.

You'd best take a tube of "No more nails" tomorrow if this system strengthens any further.

Sleet here a few minutes ago. I think this will mainly a wind even for our region. Some will wake up to snow, others won't, I can see some very disappointed punters. For once though, I'm more concerned about our friends up north than getting excited about dew points in Essex. TV forecasters are good at looking concerned but I've seen a few this afternoon who look ghostly. My man at the Environment Agency says it's all hands to the pumps trying to predict where the problems are, they are expecting significant cliff collapses along the NE coast.

I'm usually too busy drinking warm shandy down here in Essex to offer anything of assistance in this thread, but I just wanted to say good luck to all in the North East tonight. We love exciting weather and should make no apology for it, but at the same time, I hope you and those you love make it through the exciting weather safely tonight.

Ha, yes. Though this is the thread for bizarre comments rather than the mostly balanced model discussion on the other Autumn model thread. My moan? I love snow and cold but since getting Fibromyalgia any dip in temperatures brings pain for me. Snow and/or dry cold aren't as big a problem as cold rain. So I'm disappointed with anything between proper cold and nice and mild. Yes, I live in the wrong country, a few years earlier I could have moved to live around the Med but then Brexit happened. (Last bit a rant, but not a weather one, I'm still livid about it, sorry).

Most accurate forecast yet. It's what I'm telling people, don't look at the snow fall, look at the snow depths, away from mountains and Scotland most snow looks set to be washed away quickly or else melt. Still time to change until it arrives though.

Nothing in the output over the last few days has suggested to me that low-level areas away from Scotland can expect a snow event from this first plunge on Thursday/Friday. Sunday holds maybe a little more promise but with the sea around the UK warmer than average, it's going to take something very special to be anything other than a wintry mix for most of us in the UK out of the next 7 days.

Watching Reed Timmer's drive south towards Louisiana in his Dominator beast. He's noted the clear eye of the storm, rapid intensification now and slightly NE of the forecast track. Could mean this runs closer to New Orleans.

It depends which Model, as they were fairly consistent until Wednesday, then it was a case of "take yer pick". All of us would have naturally graduated to our favourite and ignored words and phrases like "a chance", "some of it thundery" and "hit and miss".

I looked at all the forecasts and models for this weekend on Tuesday night, then left it to work itself out while concentrating on maintaining the Colchester storm shield system. We had a potential supercell on out doorstep and turned it into a light shower in 10 mins. Anyway, going off what the Met Office, the BBC and Brian Gaze's latest along with UKMO and ECM output. My conclusion is that forecasts may have shifted around in the meantime but the forecast I had to give several people who were planning weekend events on Tuesday is pretty much still valid based on today's output. Perhaps watching each run is bad.

Storm has kicked off SW of Calais.

If the update about 30cm in Kent is true that will likely be a Red warning. The Kent end of the North Downs is a sweet spot for these streamer events, I was stuck in a snow drift on the M2 back in 1987, so I've experienced their full fury. I expect plenty of snow for many but the Orange zone will be Coastal Suffolk and Essex, East side of London and north Kent and north side of the South Downs. Yellow in a line from Scarborough to Southampton. A hunch, not scientific.

Apps are totally useless in these situations, I really would give up on them and get a decent radar subscription (like the Netweather one perhaps?) These situations have always been nowcast territory, learn how to read synoptic charts, or sign-up free for a site like WindyTV that gives you so many easy to understand charts from which to learn, save a good radar and lighting tracker in your favourites and ditch those apps. Could I also point out that it's not the air temperature that decides if it's going to snow, it's the dew point. When the dew point falls below freezing only snow can fall and wet pavements quickly turn white.

No. When the dew point drops below zero the snow sticks to the surface water and settles. There's a few You Tube videos out there of rain to snow events.

Yeah, 2000 springs to mind.

Could we pin this to the top of every page on the MOD thread and leave it there forever? It's so much easier to refer those hyperventilating over permutation 34 at day 9 to this invaluable advice rather than explain how it all works.....again.