Kirkcaldy Weather

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Upon seeing statements that would lead anyone to believe a drastic change had occured with our upcoming setup IT HAS NOT. Entirely fitting to my thoughts from 8 days ago Jan 15th - 21st was always probable for the most severe conditions

There has been good consistency from the majority of modelling with my thoughts from 8 days ago January 5th remaining steadfast, this IS a significant- Severe winter weather event 850 hpa temperatures briefly 15-20 degrees below average across nearly all of the UK SIGNIFICANT- SEVERE ice days x multiple in succession Surface temperatures also 15-20 Degrees below avg again covering large quantities of the UK and Ireland "At the moment we're looking at the latter stage of Jan week 2 MIDMONTH through about 5>6 days for the coldest surface and 850hpa temps" This was always probable from January 15th to around the 21st

Ideas for Tuesday / Weds

Simply INCREDIBLE

Incredible

Re the flow, this will be a general mix of Northerly and North Northwesterly which gives a fairly reasonable idea for these zones to be seeing the highest precip totals which will be of the snowy conditions. This WILL be a significant / SEVERE winter weather event The above gives a good look into the flow plus something I'd not taken time to note is the fact the Scandinavian Baltic trough is also part of an elongating sector of the Tropospheric Vortex this will extend into our setup. Although there will be snowfall again focusing with the N NNW feed areas outwith this don't look to receive very much precip overall with this being seen in the precip anomalies it's below / drier than average / average in association with our upcoming pattern with Above average precip signal further ahead once the setup attempts to become less cold as we approach Jan week 4. The snowfall opportunity is there into Tuesday which ATM looks like being most impactful toward the northwest but could extend southeastwards Frequent Ice Days, Multiple days with surface temperatures 15-20 degrees below avg and 850hpa temperatures briefly also seeing these anomalies this is the real deal regardless of the snow amounts... each event has its own subtle characteristics but a vibe of December 2022 definitely and its an underrated event again as it was generally drier but still very noteworthy.

Think your 30 tabs are something... I'm at the stage my browser just puts a smiley theres too many to add up

Super happy with the evolution since Late December now its becoming clearer in some finer detailing of this upcoming significant cold episode. Significant cold front moving south bringing significant below avg surface and 850hpa temperature anomalies by Sunday January 14th Surface temperatures point to a severe winter weather event. "Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder" 'Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback' Note the movement northwards of this cold anomaly from phases 7 into 8 From the above we can Note the significance of both 850hpa temps and in particular surface temperatures as both will contain anomalies roughly 15 > 20 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE, this will give multiple ice days in succession with liklihood of significant ice days over Scotland and Northern regions of England though there will be ice days for Ireland A timeframe with a focal point towards wintry precip event(s) will be from January 16th through 18th with the cyclone in the Atlantic starting the merging process to the Scandinavian Baltic Trough 7 day precip anomaly. I'm expectant of significant flash flood event[s] for Portugal and its border into Northwest Spain Such an excellent showcase of all the teleconnective feedback coming into one stunning meteorological display "My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible.'' Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007007

Super happy with the evolution since Late December now its becoming clearer in some finer detailing of this upcoming significant cold episode. Significant cold front moving south bringing significant below avg surface and 850hpa temperature anomalies by Sunday January 14th Surface temperatures point to a severe winter weather event. "Through Jan week 2 toward the aforementioned middle month period we'll have the -NAO,-AO,PNA,El Ninò,MJO and Easterly QBO feeding towards the setup going retrogressive this will have a couple of significant changes with a westwards moving trough which links with expectations into elongation with the centre over the Baltics, Scandinavia as this is occuring the high pressure and block will shift northwestward to reside across Greenland this is more supporting of colder 850hpa temps likely from the Northeast, we maintain below average surface temps during this with possible scope for these to get colder" 'Seeing the heart of these colder temperatures at surface and upper level becoming centred through Europe with just the far south of the UK clinging to is perfectly anticipated thanks to the phase 7 feedback' Note the movement northwards of this cold anomaly from phases 7 into 8 From the above we can Note the significance of both 850hpa temps and in particular surface temperatures as both will contain anomalies roughly 15 > 20 Degrees BELOW AVERAGE, this will give multiple ice days in succession with liklihood of significant ice days over Scotland and Northern regions of England though there will be ice days for Ireland A timeframe with a focal point towards wintry precip event(s) will be from January 16th through 18th with the cyclone in the Atlantic starting the merging process to the Scandinavian Baltic Trough 7 day precip anomaly. I'm expectant of significant flash flood event[s] for Portugal and its border into Northwest Spain Such an excellent showcase of all the teleconnective feedback coming into one stunning meteorological display "My thinking holds steady with the MJO working into the Maritimes generally Mid Jan maybe into January week 3 as this increases cyclonic developments seeing these sorts of 500hpa setups during that period is very plausible.'' Following the MJO passing across the Maritimes we begin seeing feedback of phases 1 and into 2 as January week 4 gets started a high forms toward the Maritimes which might extend through Canada, also I'm starting to notice the trend toward cut off low development toward Mexico, far Southwest US