Kirkcaldy Weather

First storm developed in Spain Lightning & Thunderstorms - Portugal, Spain, France, Italy EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORG Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries. Weather: Rainfall Radar Spain WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK Rainfall radar for Spain - see rainfall across Spain Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com

Well a sudden last minute change today for northern Spain with storms now looking like breaking out followed by a possible MCS tomorrow morning looks like faster movement of that heat low from the south. Also I can’t remember seeing an ESTOFEX forecast for tornadoes in Russia before. A level 1 was issued across NW Iberian Peninsula mainly for large hail. A level 1 was issued across parts of NW Russia mainly for tornadoes and excessive precipitation. Northwest Iberian ... Up to 10 g/kg low level specific humidity and advection of 7-7.5 K/km lower-troposphere lapse rates from NW Africa create favorable conditions for thunderstorms over broader NW Spain and N Portugal. Lift is not warranted during earlier hours, but the late afternoon and evening hours reveal much less CIN and boundary layer disturbances, during passage of a vorticity maxima. Any storms formed inlands would have higher cloud bases, and steeper lapse rates below. Up to 25 m/s deep layer shear and moderate latent instability combination promote well-organized storms with large hail potential. Northwestern Russia ... Another hotspot for severe convection is northwestern Russia. There is a moderate CAPE and very strong deep layer shear overlap around the simulated low. 0-1 km shear reaches 10-15 m/s, while the LCL is simulated to be below 800-1000 m in most parts, supporting tornado formation. Long and straight hodographs indicate splitting supercells around more western and northern parts of the level 1 area issued. Further southern parts of the Level 1 has potential for excessive precipitation, with higher humidity owing to strong advection from the Caspian Sea.

Similar to others, a cloudless day here felt quite warm too, moon just making an appearance

-10 850hpa covering good part of Scotland is a good bet now and run going out a bit further now with -6 850s reaching south coast anyone know when last time something similar happened in May?

Impressive CAPE in northern Spain again tomorrow but doesn’t look like there will be a trigger, slight chance of a coastal convergence zone but wrf nmm doesn’t seem too keen. Friday looks a very active day though across Spain and France with high CAPE and fax charts have a heat low and fronts will update once we get tomorrow’s runs.

00z had -10 850s through most of Scotland, 06z has it round about here. Think it will be mainly dry with that higher pressure though chance of some snow flurries Orkney, Shetland, highlands etc but main thing looks to be temps with possibility of daytime maxes across parts of Scotland just 3/4 C and a possible ice day in the highlands.

Small chance for Ireland and SW uk tomorrow with fronts and some CAPE developing.

@Mr Frost latest run has -10 850 hpa line reaching here, not sure of the last time that happened in May.

I haven’t been looking at the other models been focusing on wrf nmm / eu it has been performing well as it usually does with thunderstorms etc that is the furthest out it goes but has been showing same past few runs so will be interesting

Didn’t think I would be seeing -10 850hpa in Scotland in May

@shuggee u asked a while back about -10 850 hpa aye well do u want it in May

Looking at the wrf eu Thursday could be similar area to today’s and Friday could be wide area covering Spain and France will keep an eye on future runs.

Storms now moving into the area that had the highest CAPE etc

Northern Spain active now Lightning & Thunderstorms - Europe EN.BLITZORTUNG.ORG Blitzortung.org provides lightning and thunderstorm information in real time on maps for USA, United Kingdom, Australia, new Zealand, Europa, Africa, Asia and other Countries. Weather: Rainfall Radar Spain WWW.WEATHERCAST.CO.UK Rainfall radar for Spain - see rainfall across Spain Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com EN.SAT24.COM Weather Spain and Portugal, Satellite Weather Spain and Portugal, Weather Forecast, Rainfall, Clouds, Sun in Spain and Portugal - SAT24.com

Had a feeling ESTOFEX would go level 2 for northern Spain... A level 2 was issued across N Spain and SW France mainly for severe convective wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes. SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION High pressure dominates across British Isles and Benelux, while a cold front belonging to a Scandinavian/Baltic low can trigger some thunderstorms in central Europe. Lows with unstable airmass are also active around Ukraine and Turkey. The more dynamic system is a large Atlantic low west of the Iberian Peninsula, which created a Spanish Plume with steep lapse rates from low to mid levels, drifting northward over Bay of Biscay and SW France. A shortwave mid/upper trough enters Portugal at 12Z, affecting northern Spain during the afternoon and Bay of Biscay and France during late evening and night. The main models ECMWF, ARPEGE, ICON and GFS calculate several hundreds J/kg CAPE (over 1000 MUCAPE over SW France, but capped/large CIN), a relatively high LCL (1500-2000 m) and massive vertical wind shear (30-50 m/s 0-6 km, 25 m/s 0-3 km, 10-15 m/s 0-1 km, 250-500 m2/s2 0-3 km SREH). The mean wind at 1-3 km altitude over 20 m/s suggests potential for widespread severe gusts. The aforementioned parameters support strong downburst, large hail and perhaps an isolated tornado. The largest complex is placed in most models over the central/eastern Bay of Biscay, but south and eastward are drier such that model precipitation may not reach ground. GFS deep convergence and uncapped parcel patterns suggest a wider area of storm initiations. A level 2 is issued mainly for probability of a wide extent of severe gusts and large hail. not sure if that current cloud development will limit potential just a waiting game now but the front still on the west coast. https://en.sat24.com/en/sp

Trying to pick a virtual zone for tomorrow thinking somewhere like Medina de Pomar Might be a bit of a wait for cap to be broken and could be a bust but lots of potential there.

Some cumulus bubbling up to my west April ended up with 5.2mm well below the 42mm average

Nice gust front / shelf cloud