Kirkcaldy Weather

1 dead, 37 injured in 6.9-magnitude quake NEWS.MB.COM.PH At least 37 people were injured while a girl died after a magnitude 6.9 earthquake rocked the southern portion of Mindanao on Sunday...

Tomorrow night looks interesting again, as some fronts move up from the Irish sea / NW England, one issue looks to be the 850 temps although an area of around -4/5 ahead of the precip lessening to around -2 with the arrival however temperatures and dew points look more favourable. Here is a risk area with 2 zones - the zone in the SW is for thunder, hail, sleet and an outside chance of snow but the other zone looks like having a better chance of snow. Likely to be some positional changes before we get to tomorrow night so might need an update but will monitor the models through tomorrow.

Looks like some heavy snow up towards @tiff on radar.

Trying to do a forecast and add everything up often end up like this

One thing I have noticed with the wrf 2km is that sometimes the timing can be a bit off, not sure if it was more to do with the thunderstorms in the summer sometimes it would have it say 4pm for example but in reality it was 2pm so when I use it I try and compare the timings to the other short range models and again try and average them all out to find an accurate start / end time

It is the wrf 2km which is the best of the wrf models for short range as I have added in my last post

TBH I rarely use the euro4 and as I mentioned my go to is the wrf and I usually try and average out what the majority of the short range models are showing and try to come to a conclusion although a setup like today's is not the easiest comparison of those 2 models for 1pm and I would say both done a good job especially up here in Scotland with the wrf possibly closer to the mark with exact positioning of precip.

Could have been a decent snow event for quite a few of us, 4.4 C / DP 2.9 C and raining here

Thanks, although it is only really the euro 4 that takes the precip into that area so still a low risk from my POV, sidenote the wrf is working again and also the MO warning is now an ice warning although snow still in wording.

Tomorrow night also tricky to call with a front possibly moving up from the Irish Sea / NW England lots of uncertainties tomorrow and a radar / lamppost watching kind of day me thinks!

as @Mr Frost said it is a tricky one tomorrow, looks like the kind of setup where wintry surprises happen with front(s) and almost a small developing low moving into colder air A couple of issues from my POV looking at the short range models, 850 temps for the majority look to be around -2 (although possibly an area of around -4/5 moving into the south of Scotland through tomorrow afternoon) really the minimum for snow chances would be around -5, Dew points may just be acceptable around 1 C for the majority although higher towards the west coast (will discuss that in a minute) but again most favourable area looks to be south Scotland later in the day with DP's of around -2, third issue is the infamous mild sector which depends on how much the pressure lowers from the Atlantic which I have highlighted in the image below this would be my watch area for snow but the issue is models show lack of precip when the more favourbale conditions develop in the afternoon so certainly on the lower end of the risk scale due to the precip timing issue, will keep an eye on the models later and see if any changes.