Kirkcaldy Weather

This was what the MO said before the most recent changes to the warnings "Improvements have also been made to the way people can access, understand and use warning information. These improvements include: extending how far before severe weather warnings can be issued: from five days to seven days ahead improving the language used to communicate severe weather and impacts, including advice as to what to expect and what action to take issuing warnings faster and, therefore, with shorter lead times when the weather is changing rapidly improving the look and feel across all Met Office digital channels, our website and app making the warnings easier to understand." Met Office Weather Warnings: What is changing? WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK We're introducing two new national weather warnings, thunderstorms and lightning. The bits I have highlighted are what I wouldn't really agree with we have seen many times in the past where warnings have been issued when the event has already started (snowfalls etc). Everyone will have different opinions on the website / app appearance but I wouldn't say it has really improved and as for the last bit we have seen warnings overlap and be hard to decipher which area is being covered by what warning.

Obviously will be run to run changes but possibly some interest around Christmas?

Will let @Catacol answer your question as I don't understand the ins and outs of the IOD but found these tweets

A Clyde-Forth streamer perhaps? Can tell the cold front went through high of 12.6 C earlier now down to 5.6 C / DP 4.1 C

Minging December temperatures have returned, currently 12.2 C / DP 9.8 C here thankfully temporary before the colder air and possible snow showers move in. WRF still not working so looks like a bit of a guessing game for the upcoming wintry potential but I think a bit of everything will be on offer rain/sleet/snow/hail and possibly thunder too. Although having a look around the other short range models they seem to keep the majority of the showers in the W / NW with little making it across further east although the euro 4 holding firm as @CatchMyDrift posted earlier, usually when you see one model out on its own it ends up being somewhere between that and the others so will be interesting to see how it plays out.

From Judah Cohen's latest blog "I have a hard time predicting a significant PV disruption in the foreseeable future. And I strongly believe that without a disrupted PV or if the PV strengthens and becomes circular in shape, then it is nearly impossible for cold air to gain a foothold across the NH with some regionalized exceptions. This scenario is becoming a greater risk in my opinion. I strongly believe in the Arctic influence on our winter weather borne out in my own observational analysis and the vast majority observational analysis performed by my colleagues. And I think during these emotional rollercoasters, you need to stick with the more rational analysis performed under less stressful moments. As they say “the captain always goes down with the ship” and at least for this winter, if the Arctic ship goes down I am going down with it. Also, the PV center is predicted to remain displaced towards northwest Eurasia over the next two weeks. The displacement of the PV center towards Scandinavia is likely contributing to a tropospheric reflection helping to deepen the troughing across Siberia next week (e.g., Figure 5). Despite the displacement of the stratospheric PV towards Eurasia and more WAFz there are no real signs of a more significant PV disruption."

Found out that the issue is hardware related on the server and they have contacted them, hopefully it is fixed ASAP especially with potential wintry weather on the horizon

Well an eventful night here due to a power cut at 4 am fumbling around for a torch at that time in the morning isn't great Anyone know what has happened to the WRF model on meteociel? nothing showing up, it is my number one short range model and was fine yesterday so not sure if an upgrade or what is going on. Oh and anyone for heavy snow showers currently sunny 5.3 C / DP 0.8 C here

and if you look at the Greenland blocking index the other month that sticks out is December 2012 but other months were also within the positive range (albeit low) https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/gbi.mon.data

I posted this in another thread before but may as well post again. In the last 10 years the UK has seen 2nd February 2009 snow event in SE, winter 2009/2010, November / December 2010, March 2013, BFTE Feb/ March 2018 and who knows how long the failed easterly would have lasted last winter had it happened, over a 10 year period especially given our position and the fact milder winters are more common than colder ones I would say that is pretty good going and colder events are still more than possible (take a look on the snow and ice thread for many records for both cold temperatures and snowfall already broken this late autumn / early winter period across Scandinavia and USA) to think that the UK will never experience anything cold / snowy again is silly IMO, always takes a bit of luck getting colder weather in the UK but our luck will go the right way again at some stage. I am fully aware about climate change but would rather not get into a debate about that.

Weather Radar - Live UK Rainfall Radar - 5 Minute Updates - Netweather WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

Thanks, nice to see lightning in the showers out west so far today Do you live in a different country wild night and day so far here with constant howling wind and heavy showers rattling through, currently on 10.2 mm here so far today and temperature 6.0 C / DP 4.2 C looking at some of the short range models outside chance of some snow showers near @tiff as we head overnight tonight / early tomorrow morning.

scary stuff @Ross B hope you are okay. Welcome back @Cheggers Some interest for those of you in the west tomorrow morning (roughly 9 am) through tomorrow afternoon with some decent CAPE moving in off the Atlantic bringing the risk of thundery showers with hail. A very rough map from me @Mr Frost might be some for you ?️