Kirkcaldy Weather

Some articles to add to the discussion (wont link properly but type in google and click on the agupubs links - Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe Solar+influence+on+winter+severity+in+central+Europe - Google Search WWW.GOOGLE.COM Are cold winters in Europe associated with low solar activity? - IOPscience IOPSCIENCE.IOP.ORG Dynamic winter climate response to large tropical volcanic eruptions since 1600 Dynamic+winter+climate+response+to+large+tropical+volcanic+eruptions+since+1600 - Google Search WWW.GOOGLE.COM What influence will future solar activity changes over the 21st century have on projected global near‐surface temperature changes? What+influence+will+future+solar+activity+changes+over+the+21st+century+have+on+projected+global+near‐surface+temperature+changes? - Google Search WWW.GOOGLE.COM

Gosh between this thread and the winter thread the mood is grim Christmas day looks lovely with the ridge of higher pressure, dry, sunny, light winds tbh if I cant have a snowy Christmas I will settle for that, boxing day looking unsettled with lower pressure moving across the country (still some room for position changes but think the worst will be towards the S / SW wind / rain then another ridge of higher pressure building in later on 27th / 28th and just a shame that looks to topple because with colder air plunging south across Scandinavia and parts of Europe if we could have got that higher pressure to draw in an easterly there could have been some wintry weather. With the MJO going through short spells in phases 3, 4 & 5 and the outlook for phases 6 / 7 upcoming that looks to tie in with what the models are showing Gradually becoming more unsettled from the NW and a westerly theme (perhaps bordering on that dreaded "zonal" word popping up) phase 6 is a bit of a no mans land in terms of UK weather although still probably a westerly theme possibly weaker not as unsettled and for us coldies phase 7 COULD be the key with a NE / E flow indicated, so I think I will be taking a break from model watching until signs of the MJO heading into phase 7 (hopefully) . And I will wish everyone a Merry Christmas & A Happy New Year

Severe blizzard dumps up to 9 m (30 feet) of snow on parts of northern Iceland WATCHERS.NEWS Parts of Iceland were left blanketed in an unprecedented amount of snow reaching up to 9 m (30 feet) a week after heavy snowfall and... Iceland's Emigration Center Disappears under Snow: "We’ve never before had snow on this scale" - Electroverse ELECTROVERSE.NET “When building these houses, it never occurred to us we’d have to shovel [snow] off these roofs. There are, I believe, 9 meters (30 ft) up to...

Hi Mike, obviously I have made my thoughts clear recently with my attention being on the feedback from phase 3 ie higher pressure of some variety, but just wanted to point out that although the diagrams show MJO in COD phase 4 conditions have been present the past few days http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt which suggests the higher pressure moving more out west and possibly lower pressure across Scandinavia with some higher pressure toward Barents / Kara Sea although like phase 3 this might be brief but will continue to monitor MJO progression.

A year I will remember for being the most thundery year / summer I have experienced with thunder at some point during April, May, June, July & August including the most intense rainfall I have witnessed and plenty of flooding. Also to see the +20 C 850's nearly reaching here was something exceptional

Pleasant weather here some sun a few clouds 5.8 C not too shabby

No it doesn't How predictable that pandemonium has returned Lets just see where the runs go over the next few days but I know for certain I wouldn't be putting my money on any outcome at the minute given the uncertainty, still very much all to play for IMO.

Take your pick All for a bit of Christmas fun of course

still a long way to go Steve but continues to show the struggles the models have with blocking high pressure I would say at least 7/8 times out of 10 they struggle with the strength and usually you can add a few days on to initial breakdown attempts.

GFS 18z showing exactly why I said all options on the table earlier, also another way of cooling things down across Europe although optimal situation would be to get the coldest of the air across Siberia as far west as possible but baby steps and great to see some positivity in here although I would be very surprised if there are not further ups and downs in the runs to come through Christmas, just try to stay as open minded and positive as possible folks

If we are able to "guarantee" what the weather will / wont do why do we look at the models / teleconnections and come on this forum? - because there is no guarantee with the weather and around the world year on year we continue to see weather events that amaze us and some that people may not have thought were possible - this summers record heat in UK, hurricanes, current heat in Australia etc Yes I still believe this is one of the key areas and so much differences run to run continue to show that the models are struggling with that higher pressure, small shifts of that higher pressure and associated colder air can make a big difference to the overall pattern... A key point models are struggling as I mentioned above and small changes could have bigger overall effects for both sides of the coin (cold/less cold). That is often the thrill with chasing cold weather for the UK and yes more often than not we end up on the disappointing side of things but that wont always be the case.. As I mentioned a few day ago the easterly is the jackpot scenario and always the risk that the higher pressure wont align favourably (still has to develop of course) but given the fact that the models are still struggling to get conditions pinned down for Christmas day - 5 days away, still all options on the table. Keep an eye on the colder air across Siberia, wouldn't take much for it to move west like last nights GFS showed.

Something akin to the 18z GFS would do the job nicely still a long way to go before excitement can creep in but if these little run - run upgrades and shifts of colder air west out of Siberia keep happening....

3.9 C and 124.2mm please

As I was only 4 I cant remember the conditions but looks like it was very snowy on the 28th December especially in the west / sw of Scotland (Glasgow) and very cold too. BBC News | SCOTLAND | Snow causes havoc for Scots NEWS.BBC.CO.UK BBC ON THIS DAY | 29 | 2000: Freezing Britain grinds to a halt NEWS.BBC.CO.UK from the last paragraph "A powerful cold weather front known as The Snowplough has been pushing snow in a loop across Scandinavia, Scotland and Ireland down over England towards France, covering the whole of Britain for the first time in six years." Never heard of that terminology before. Also Christmas day 2000 was Aldergrove, Antrim Northern Ireland's sunniest Christmas day "Northern Ireland 6.7hrs at Aldergrove, Antrim in 2000 " Christmas snow records in the UK WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK White Christmas infographic and video showing snow at Christmas in the UK over the last 50 years.

GFS showing the usual struggles and poor handling of blocking high pressure as expected (still exact positioning far from resolved but this highlights the move west also the higher pressure toward UK) GFS 12z 17th December Todays GFS 12z