Kirkcaldy Weather

This is not a forecast purely just something worth mentioning should conditions head that way. MJO signals with some confusion ATM however some manage to squeeze into phase 3 conditions which are suggestive of higher pressure either through the UK or an outside chance of higher pressure over Scandinavia, possibly why some of the ensembles have been hinting at this in outer reaches (towards Christmas) note that the last chart focusing the heights over scandinavia is medium - low reliability. some from the GEM ensembles tonight hinting toward that

And there is the MJO phase 2 pattern

Well given I am 23 you and many others have experienced more snowfall events than me *says jealously* hopefully we all get to enjoy plenty more in the years to come something like that would do for starters

Excuse me!? How dare you! You just jealous because you have missed out on the full benefit from forth streamers over the years?

@Glacier Point Hi Stewart, I always appreciate seeing your posts with all the in depth info that goes into them. Just a few questions, do you see / think there will be a chance of a split in the PV this winter or just further episodes of warming / displacement like what is currently happening / upcoming and also do you think a more north south split is possible ie colder / snowfall chances in the north / possible battleground snowfalls (similar to @Roger J Smith 's preliminary winter thoughts).

Temperatures here were +10 C through the night, absolutely minging temperatures for December the average minimum temperature here for December should be 0.7 C For me it is what direction the flow is from ie next weeks would be a Clyde-Forth streamer being from the W / NW whereas the BFTE was a Forth-Clyde streamer being from the E nothing like a straight forward approach Nah its the river Forth which is best

December 2009 is tied 5th coldest with 1995 in Scotland https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Tmean/ranked/Scotland.txt here in East Scotland it is tied 4th coldest with 1976 here are some articles on that winter (cant get them to link properly just type in google December 2009 cold weather agupubs and it is the articles by Judah Cohen and J . Cattiaux) https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/weather/learn-about/uk-past-events/interesting/2010/snow-and-low-temperatures---december-2009-to-january-2010---met-office.pdf also type in google The UK winter of 2009/2010 compared with severe winters of the last 100 years for another article

Something that changes as often and quickly as the mood in the mad thread

Oi I was that excited at the time as I really thought it was going to be a snowless winter I tried to get as many pics as possible those are snowflakes trust me it was that sneaky little front Anyway sorry mods just had to prove that is was most definitely snow

Max temp here was 12.0 C at 5:15 pm still sitting on 11.9 C and DP 10.5 C hurry up colder air!!

not always the case at all trust me I am as desperate for snow as anyone (we dont all live on high ground up here ), here is my total snowfall for the WHOLE of last winter I know that areas further south got more snow than here last winter and some areas didn't get any at all. It was one of the worst I can remember for lack of snow here so that is the first thing on my winter wishlist to get more than that this winter which possibly with some luck next week I might have a chance

Absolutely mental here with the wind, and also will you be able to match my current 11.9 C

interest before this too but the 13th getting colder over the last few runs with the -10 850s widely on the latest run and a potential snow maker from the NW

Needed for some in the mad thread, "you know what happens when you think winter is over 5 days in?... you just made the list!"

Mine are 1st / 2nd July 2015 storm forecast from that day indicated the likelihood of some pretty intense storms developing (possible supercells) and also tornado risk Current ESTOFEX Convective Forecasts - ESTOFEX WWW.ESTOFEX.ORG I remember watching the radar all day and into the evening and was beginning to think it was a bust however just before midnight the radar suddenly burst into life to my south (still the quickest to this day I have seen cells develop on radar) and a big storm was on track for a direct hit around 1 am. Unfortunately my videos and pics are on an old hard drive which died before I could upload them, however here are some videos from Edinburgh of the same intense storm In pictures: Scotland's lightning storm WWW.BBC.CO.UK A selection of viewer images taken during the thunder and lightning storm in the early hours of Thursday morning. Lightning storm across Scotland WWW.BBC.CO.UK A dramatic thunder and lightning storm lit up many parts of Scotland overnight into Thursday. 24th June 2019 Very intense storm with the rainfall being the main feature which resulted in flooding (the heaviest rain I have experienced) my video from the storm thunder at 1:19 and 2:24, go to around the 4 min mark onward for the rain which was whites and purples on radar little did I know that would be the start of the most thundery summer I have experienced. 29th June 2019 A day which had 3 separate storms here each one getting more intense and again more flooding with fire engines rushing to help pump water out. my video with some hail 12 mins in 24th July 2019 Again 3 separate storms however this time night storms starting at around 3am my pics from those storms and videos can be found on my youtube channel https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPC1J11-uXtGtev-gYA2jlA/videos 7th August 2019 and the last of this summers storms here which had some nice structure as it moved in and more intense rainfall and gusty winds.

you can get the sunshine data here just select the region and then sunshine UK and regional series WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Download time-series of monthly, seasonal and annual values. Files can be downloaded in rank or year order. here are the top Decembers (sunshine hours) England 75.7 2001 Scotland 43.7 2001 Wales 73.5 2001 Northern Ireland 61.5 2010

All still coming along nicely for next week and the latest ensembles are actually an upgrade

Yes all coming along nicely and the latest ensembles for here are actually an upgrade compare to yesterdays 12z again ice day potential too Cool / cold zonality setups are usually a gamble but get the right alignment of lower pressure and colder air and a snowy jackpot can be hit Just wondering also if the ramping up of the PV will be due to the feedback of the increase in zonal winds before the gradual decline after and still the likelihood of the displacement of the PV later in the month toward Scandinavia. Also the activity in the Indian ocean and also Pacific likely to cause further chopping and changing within the models I would think.

Probably not helping with the chopping and changing in the models all that going on.

Sidney is ready