Ladyofthestorm
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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm
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36 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Yes significant, high pressure to the north and low pressure to the south and south west, equals an airstream from between north and east, which in early March can be every bit as cold as at any time of the year.
Absolutely
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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
Wednesday 15 Feb - Friday 24 Feb
Dry conditions are likely for much of the UK on Wednesday, with sunny spells and variable cloud coverage. Some showery outbreaks are possible for parts of Northern Ireland and Scotland, but any rain is likely to decay fairly quickly. Into the weekend, much of central, southern and eastern England and Wales are likely to remain dry, while some frontal systems could progress from the north and west. Towards the end of the period, changeable conditions are likely to persist, bringing periods of cloud, rain, and strong winds, alongside some more settled conditions. In the north, showers could turn wintry for a time. The strongest winds are expected in the north and west. Temperatures generally rather mild, but some local frost possible under clear skies, especially in eastern parts.
Saturday 25 Feb - Saturday 11 Mar
The end of February is likely to see a continuation of changeable conditions, with the wettest and windiest conditions most probable across the northwest. The south and east could see some shorter spells of wet weather, although some more settled conditions remain possible. Into March, high pressure is expected to develop to the north of the UK, with low pressure dominating over the south and southwest. This could introduce a north-south split, with drier conditions across the north whilst the south could see some wetter conditions. Temperatures expected to be mostly around average, but a period of colder or much colder temperatures remains a possibility, bringing widespread wintry conditions.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/forecast/uk
That's an upgrade!
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6 minutes ago, MattH said:
This may well 'leave a mark' looking ahead! - As a few have mentioned of late the tropospheric and stratospheric connection which could be made as a result of the SSW and the MJO really does signal the possibility of signficant interest for winter synoptics in late Feb and Mar.
As ever some would argue it's all too late and delays spring etc, but putting mild and cold biases aside after what has been a heck of a benign (boring, depending on your viewpoint) winter, overall, the atmosphere is about to get quite the 'shake up' and that can only bring interest from all angles and also provides another learning curve given how these variables will play out and interact with each other.
As ever this doesn't guarantee cold or another BFTE but it sure does spike interest for significantly increasing the risk of producing some wild synoptics down the line.
Cheers.
Definitely not too late. Some our worst blizzard's happen in Spring. Sun strength or not.
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The MJO with my limited knowledge is heading towards 6 and 7 in the next 5 to 12 days.
I'm watching the runs on this model, much cleaner than the GFS where it's taking it closer to the centre.
I do think this is the best opportunity this winter for a reversal and so called Beast from the East. I actually suspect it will open the doors to the North like in March 2006 !
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12 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Trending colder
Add on the reversal of zonal winds
forecast and the jigsaw is starting to come together. Not a single run above 0 in 10 days time .
Lots of model uncertainty with MJO... Unusual. Every time I see it, it's significantly changes it position of the points on the graph. At least it's not in the circle of death.
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A brief resume of last week and this week's zonal winds forecast.
Reversal on the way.
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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
1998?
1988 to 89 big la Nina , I knew it was one
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4 minutes ago, swebby said:
Was there not a super-nino event during this 90s? No idea if that has any impact if there was - well beyond my understanding!
Edit - scrub that - misremembering! There were strong events for nino and nina but it was the very end of the 90's.
Absolutely 1989?
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On 08/02/2023 at 08:39, Weather-history said:
Mike Poole posted the graphic of SSWs and Atlantic regimes in the above post and the thing that really stands out for me is the gap between the February 1990 SSW and the December 1998 SSW. That's quite a gap, any explanation why this was so? Just random chance?
The 1990s were devoid of Easterlies.
Plenty potent Nlys winter December 95 being one.
I suspect climate forcing effects by CFCs perhaps?
They were phased out shortly afterwards.
Volcanic activity... Such as Pinatubo it was a biggy
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24 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
As you go deeper into February you start to need deeper cold (cold uppers) to achieve a cold spell. By the latter part of Feb the solar input is about as potent as it is during mid October.
But waters around UK are cooler
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Just a thought the PV and stratosphere is warming off the backend of a record breaking low point.
Maybe we should be looking for historical patterns of below average Stratospheric temps and reversals. It's a big hill to climb!
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9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
If the reversal does happen and we get Easterly winds we will likely see out the rest of February without a named storm.
No named storm during winter would be extraordinary!!
And that's considering we have such a positive NAO and the SPV over Canada and Greenland!
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It's absolutely mindblowing that GFS is sticking to it's guns and now after a blast from the east turns it around to the North and North East later in the runs. There is absolutely no doubt it's out on its own, but latest ensemble's runs on what was an unreliable time frame 5 days ago are now picking up that distinct cooling trend with +96hrs.
Someone above posted up a comparison of the three models at same time.. it looked fine detail and margins! With the slightly greater exaggeration of the high Aleutian High ( and it's a ridge) on the GFS. Is that ripple really enough to create an exaggeration of the Jetstream bends and send it south or broken off. Incredibly strong PV over the Greenland Canada side. But it is still very much stretched . I'm really intrigued as to what our in house professionals are thinking . Slight head scratching thinking the GFS gotta change soon.
Mind is telling me the euro model, but my heart and gut instinct tell me otherwise.
I suppose with all these models they are only as good as the humans who input the variables into them. Most are still using analogue data based on previous weather events to create a model run. That in itself is limiting as analogue data does not contain climate forcing factors or all those negative feedback loops of melting ice caps.
When does the zonal winds data come out today?
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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Scotland covers half of Scotland?
Scotland covers half the UK. It was as a moved post from another thread with reference to March 2006.
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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:
They are indeed. Get the cold into Europe, turn the Atlantic tap off, thankyou stretchy PV. A nudge from the SSW that have taken place and then one final shove from a final warning . Mid February we are back in the freezer . Cancel early spring!
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2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:
The bolded text I said on Jan 21, based on my interpretation of the teleconnections. Maybe mid Feb will but not what I posted.
Hi Stuie
Missed that bit.
Downward trending continuing.
If it gets back to nearly neutral we could be in for interesting weather
7 minutes ago, Cymro said:Wales and NI had a lot of snow in March 2006 as well! Look West/NWest people it's delivered well this year
For us too!
For once .
Been an amazing year
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14 minutes ago, Stuie W said:
I can`t quote a closed thread but the teleconnections back on Jan 21 did point towards this.
Think the other way around, negative AO did encourage the what was it, Bomb cyclone in the states, going positive does really help us but really would like to see the NAO go negative for us to tap into what `could` be a bloody cold Europe.
Edit:
There is a negative shift on the NAO scatter today.
Yesterday:
Today:
It's a gradual move and one that I think will be significant in 2 weeks time. Mid February onwards .
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32 minutes ago, RhHh said:
That must be local to Scotland, as are most snow events. Nothing down here in March 2006.
Scotland covers half the country. But March 2006 was very cold.
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5 hours ago, Catacol said:
...which is not a surprise. The passage of the MJO strongly through the IO supports the SE USA ridge and until it gets back to the Maritimes there is no connected support for anything to shift the Greenland/Icelandic low. Worth also showing these 2 graphics:
both of which show quite clearly that we are now slipping into an ocean/atmosphere connected La Nina state....and that means atlantic westerlies. No change to anything I have said about the first half of February ever since we failed to get a substantive impact from stratospheric disruption.
Things will change a bit in the second half of February. The MJO will come back around to phase 6/7/8 and given how active it has been this season I see no reason why it cannot continue in that same way. We will have the seasonal weakening of the vortex, indeed with the long wave pattern encouraging ridging in the Scandy sector and a north pacific that has surprised me this year and allowed more low pressure through the Aleutians - the EC long term forecast of another weakening of the strat vortex into the second half of February perhaps to levels that are significantly below the seasonal average also suggests something different.
It has been said by others....but in blunt terms: put together a strongish MJO into the West Pacific in later February alongside a weaker than average vortex and it screams a cold March to me. Is this a surprise? 2013, 2018 - the 2 snowiest months in the last 10 years and both were March. Something in the climate connections seems to be working to give more blocked and cold ends to winter for the UK and the last snowy February seems (and was?) an age ago now.
Next year is looking like a possible eQBO/Nino combo which should get the juices flowing. For this year another unremarkable February, certainly for the first half, before things move towards the end. Timing is always a pig - could a pattern shift occur in the final third of February? Yes - possible. But these things always seem to take longer than expected so my money would be on early March.
I wonder what the teleconnections thought of March 2006?
That was a very cold March and very snowy but no beast from the East.
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The GFS blocking pattern
Remember trend is your friend.
This isn't a west based NAO Atlantic driven regime.
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3 minutes ago, Phil Blake said:
The last few days have been very windy here in the north east so for me, mushy was spot on with what the anomalies were showing. Of course they aren't going to predict what the exact surface conditions will actually be but can give a good indication in the direction of travel.
We live in the Western Isles. Windiest , stormiest place in the UK . With such a strong NAO, synoptic setup to Atlantic dominated . It hasn't been that bad at all unsettled but definitely NOT stormy.
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Such differences between the GFS, And the Euro within such a short timescale.
Do you remember that ECM the infamous one that forecasted a beast and then redacted it. Just be wary of a reverse . It is forecasting heights over Scandinavian areas but not the block.
GFS is really consistent and sticking to guns like it did forecasting the warmth of summer .
Although teleconnections don't support it ( at all) the now .. the NAO is heading downward to negative.
Intriguing
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Any updates on the zonal winds graph ?
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Never seen it drop like that before. Impressive