Ladyofthestorm
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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm
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Interesting 0z run from GFS and a complete switch and reversal of the pattern later in the run. One to watch to see if it holds.
The ensembles for zonal wind reversal were showing an increasing trend of dropping below the 0 yesterday. GFS first one to bite?
The polar vortex looks strong but also like a volatile stretchy blob .
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3 minutes ago, mpkio2 said:
Looks good, but too much scatter to say with confidence that it would entail colder weather for the UK or not......
That's a significant number of runs below 0...
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56 minutes ago, Stuie W said:
Hope I am not boring folks with these daily outputs but they are teleconnection based.
AO - (affects the US) still a mess but probably weighted towards neutral. This would enhance the US getting a cold shot.
NAO - How much this affects the UK is debatable but it is still pretty much positive. This doesn`t scream cold and does favour unsettled.
Just how I interpret.
NW based positive NAOs can bring snow to the UK . January 84 being on my lips. Someone posted up in the model highlights thread other analogues. I still firmly believe and think we will get a wintry surprise from the NW or North
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I've (patiently) read through a alot of comments even on this thread about the GFS not doing this that and the next thing. One thing it certainly can't do is fulfil personal snowmageddon wish lists
I think it's telling that when one views the ensemble and you see it beginning to sort out the chaos.
It's unsettled... It's mild (ish) then cold, then mild (ish) then cold.
A strong NWly regime in place but it's not really mild. That's the take home message.
And all it takes is the blocking to the west and south of us to ridge and we have a Nly.
Might not be a beastie from the easrtie... These are incredibly rare.
But as has been already pointed out some of our most memorable winters actually come off a NWly based regime.
Watch the temps through February drop off then watch at the end.
This isn't chaos this is a pattern beginning to emerge.
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1 hour ago, joggs said:A vile chart if it's cold you're after.
That's the charts that bring non SSW winters of olden times to our shores.
January 1984!
January 2003
Someone on the highlights thread listed non SSW winters.
Powerful PV like this can produce some very cold spells.
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1 hour ago, KTtom said:Unfortunately I dont think that is a promising sign, well for us anyway, the deep cold is due to the dense PV, this just fires up the jet due to a big temperature gradient. No sign of this cold being released to lower lattitudes at the moment.
It does but it drags in a constant supply of colder weather behind the cold fronts from the NW.
Beast from the East, zonal reversals are not favourable to areas away from East coasts . Again as already intimated our best shots of cold this winter are the PV stretching as it has done already this winter and sending short shots of freezing snowy air.
PS NW Scotland has enjoyed some of our snowiest winters in years with no SSW having been body slammed with a potent NLy.
Look to the NW and N for the PV stretches. Plenty coming.
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I've never seen such promising charts for winter prospects before this week. The cold from the NW and N is piling up.
I've never seen such promising charts for winter prospects before this week. The cold from the NW and N is piling up.
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Very interesting GFS output, signalling long term some very unprecedented storm conditions nationwide.
Long long way off ...but noted that the NAO looks increasingly positive .
Not far off the record
Braer Storm - Wikipedia
EN.M.WIKIPEDIA.ORG
Some upper stratospheric disturbances displacing the polar vortex and the polar cold air mass .. nudging it south and into the path of the warmer tropical airmasses?
Creating a monster pressure potential.
Oh and wintry weather behind it
Just like January 1984 and 1993
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
Eps less flat than yesterday ….
Do you have any visuals to show me. I still suspect big buckles in the Jetstream are a distinct possibility
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:slight problem now is we don't know if its an outlier suite so will it skew the £C46 - expect a big SSW signal later when it comes out.
Agreed . I think we are in for some surprises.
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10 minutes ago, fromey said:
The warming getting going on the 10hpa, but still below the average and the 30hpa warming slowly but still well below the average.
Reminds me of late January 2010! A very strong polar vortex and then SSW .
I still suspect we will get a SSW event this year and a reverse of the zonal winds
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9 hours ago, blizzard81 said:
This event could very easily be a much shorter version of the December cold spell where very few of us saw any snow at all.
We need the cold first and foremost. Precipitation will follow.
The major difference this time around is direction this next cold spell is coming from . Last time from a very dry continental flow. This time around arctic maritime.
I suspect precipitation levels will be nowcasted in many places.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4788283-
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44 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:
That's a very unhappy, destabilised Polar Vortex!
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3 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
I know uppers aren't everything. But compared to the past few runs, this morning they look more diluted across the board, overall very uninspiring runs this morning it has to be said.
My suggestion is now watch the METO fax charts at this stage. Nick Sussex posted up these charts already showing most of the UK locked into a cold Nly flow by Monday with the 528 dam line almost in the far reaches of South England.
Plenty showers packing in afterwards.
1 hour ago, nick sussex said:The UKMO have modified their raw data and the T72 hrs fax chart looks more condusive for snow .
The triple point at that stage is centered near Bristol . Slack winds on the northern flank of the low could help with evaporative cooling .
And a wee reminder!
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9 hours ago, blizzard81 said:This event could very easily be a much shorter version of the December cold spell where very few of us saw any snow at all.
We need the cold first and foremost. Precipitation will follow.
The major difference this time around is direction this next cold spell is coming from . Last time from a very dry continental flow. This time around arctic maritime.
I suspect precipitation levels will be nowcasted in many places.
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Just now, KTtom said:
I agree, still go on about the rediculous forecast they put out in mid November talking about high pressure being in charge over eastern areas with snow showers in the west...a synoptic impossibility.
Just get a feeling though that there would be some hint of a major pattern change in their forecasts if we are to get one in Jan / early Feb i.e. colder.
Agreed
December for us was much colder and drier than average. Nearly record breakingly so . I've seen this pattern before and it springs surprises later on with colder outbreaks.
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That arctic blocking is telling and the splitting of the polar vortex in half!
Later half of January will be interesting.
Personally I think the GFS puts too much weighting into Atlantic driven components especially at our end of the Atlantic.
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5 minutes ago, KTtom said:
Desperate times for winter 2022 / 23 prospects, things are so bad the JMA model is being rolled out and any mention of the Met Office is banned
To be honest KT I'm not impressed at all with the METO in any way.
Twice in the past 5 days, all weather models including the METO picked up windstorms for our areas quick quickly. And twice METO have issued a very delayed a weather warning for wind for our area even thoughj the amatuer that I am saw it coming in my previous life .. ( ok slight exaggeration) .
So not entirely sure if the models and users are still on holiday!
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A wee update from the teleconnection models .
The forecasters are still expecting disruption to the PV mid January onwards either as a stretching or splitting ( caused by SSW)
The EC and GFS are both continuously sniffing these scenarios out.
LIttle wonder given the forecasts
1. Neutral to Negative NA0.. watch that trend.
2. Negative NO .. it's been kicking around all winter. Look at the ensemble runs.
3. I'm really not convinced with all this doom and gloom expectations
The MJO looks promising we may still get a phase 7, plenty ensemble runs suggesting it.
I think though look at the longer term blocking pattern over the arctic. That strengthened PV which we have the now is a sitting leaky duck.
Potentially, latter part of January beginning February could see much colder conditions.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/98196-model-output-discussion-new-year-and-beyond/?do=findComment&comment=4782566-
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A wee update from the teleconnection models .
The forecasters are still expecting disruption to the PV mid January onwards either as a stretching or splitting ( caused by SSW)
The EC and GFS are both continuously sniffing these scenarios out.
LIttle wonder given the forecasts
1. Neutral to Negative NA0.. watch that trend.
2. Negative NO .. it's been kicking around all winter. Look at the ensemble runs.
3. I'm really not convinced with all this doom and gloom expectations
The MJO looks promising we may still get a phase 7, plenty ensemble runs suggesting it.
I think though look at the longer term blocking pattern over the arctic. That strengthened PV which we have the now is a sitting leaky duck.
Potentially, latter part of January beginning February could see much colder conditions.
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Can you see how quickly it goes from a stubborn Bartlet high, positive NAO . Heights over Greenland and to the north non existent
To something else very different
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Could somebody put up the 500 and 850 charts for the evolution of what happened to us over the new year period.
31st December
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It was our first winter in the Highlands of Scotland. Dad got a job working as a teacher at Golspie High School and we lived in between Brora and Helmsdale on the main A9 at a place called Kintradwell. We didn't drive at the time and public buses were once a day. Mum and dad often walked the three miles into the village and mum cycled alot.
Christmas 1983 had been a green affair. Some snow early December but that was it. There was flooding and alot of rain everywhere late December.
January 2nd the wind switched NWLy , almost touching stormforce by mid morning. Extreme wind-chill, ice and very strong winds brought the pylons down by 9 am and the electricity off. We were lucky in that our coal fire central heating gravity fed. But we had no gas cooking stove. A young family .. 16, 10 and 8 respectively saw my dad cook mince and tatties on the open coal fire. Lol
I still remember the black lumps of coal in it.
Mum was in work in Brora having cycled (wind behind her) into the local petrol station. With the electricity off and no way of the petrol pumps working mum sought shelter at some friends .. with her bike!
Dad had been keeping the telephone line clear of ice by leaning out of my brother's bedroom and banging the line with a wooden handle. Mum called to say she was heading home... But just outside the 40mph speed limit. Her progress was hampered and what ensued was a 35 minute walk turned into 2hours .
The wind strengthened with gusts in excess of 80mph, the mean wind speed was +50mph. With it came the hard white pellets of snow. Graupal. No soft flakes . It came down hard, and fast, turning the landscape very white very quickly
Dad was beyond himself and eventually made the decision after an HR to go and get mum. He left instructions for my older brother that if he wasn't back in 2hrs to call 999 and ask for the police. Dad found mum struggling back ( complete with bike) about a mile from home. Family reunited with much excitement.
The snow continued through the day laying huge banks of drifts on the A9. A train got stuck at Forsinard and there were loads of people properly trapped in vehicles on the. Ord of Caithness.
We listened on local radio using my birthday present, a transistor radio, as the weather carnage affected the entire north of Scotland .
The biggest shock came as the news declared that two hunting lodges were on fire in Strath Helmsdale , It transpired it was Arson .
Having prepared for a night of toast on the fire , the local Hydro electric boys appeared with an emergency gas stove at tea time. Having driven in an argocat!
THe snow did relent slightly . Electricity stayed off till the 6th... My birthday was spend playing sledges on the drifts of snow.
My worst living memory of a blizzard.
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It's funny I should see this. We always think you should see snow from the east or arctic. Nope this was a serious west based negative NAO that came screaming in from Greenland.
Oh boy have I got an epic childhood take to tell!
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Jan 1984 North Scotland hit by blizzards ... It was Polar Maritime air, backing off a very active Atlantic...
I definitely see similarities this year!
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Model Output Discussion - Into February
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
ECM sniffing too. Ensemble's not biting yet but looks at the cooling trend in the middle.
It's that old GFS trick again.... Have an idea... Chuck it out and then you with it again in a closer time frame.
Get the cold into Europe then Zonal wind reversal and then here we are.
The strong Zonal pattern of past two weeks hasn't really been that string considering what's being fired out of Canada and Greenland. It's prone and volatile. I was expecting storms here in the Western Isles, but it's been unsettled , cool but not too bad.