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Ladyofthestorm

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Posts posted by Ladyofthestorm

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    The hunt for cold -- I found it at T384. Diving low followed by true arctic outbreak, on Christmas Eve too. This could fade in and out for a few more days, something like that seems plausible once the increasingly cold zonal runs out of energy and the jet drops away further. Just about the same timing as 2009-10 in the last Modoki type El Nino.

    (although that started up with some cold southeasterly stuff before a northerly developed)

    The thing about this winter is, parts of the arctic are actually colder than normal, in particular, the Canadian arctic islands and north/west Greenland. So if that anomaly can either expand or shift east, we might get the rare synoptics that many crave. 

    I completely agree with your sentiments. Things look like they sit on a knife edge synoptically. While most are looking to the East for a cold source of air, I am looking to the North. What was interesting was the ensembles for that time period. Naturally all over the place with a large spread, but the GFS operational 850pa temps are forecast actually warmer than the GEFS control mean and a significant number of seperate runs of the models. One to watch. Low pressure bringing in a Northern flow of air. 

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    The GFS always has a default bias for being Atlantic driven. But mild Decembers are often associated with strong  El Nino winter's  influences  2014/15 being one of them off the top of my head.  The Stratosphere in the high latitudes is volatile/the polar vortex vulnerable. The reason for all the rain in England is because is because the Jetstream has slipped south. 

     

    I remember (I think it was Chino) suggesting that last winter snow was a precursor to what we could get this year. I think he is right. 

    Something big is lurking around the corner it's just that the charts haven't picked it up yet. 

    • Like 2

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Looking the ensembles. I really don't think we can draw any conclusion from it. 

    prmslWestern~Isles.png

    Anything beyond day 10 is really purely speculation. The models don't know where to place the highs either. Though I suspect the GFS is overplaying the role of the Atlantic. The GEM is  going for higher pressure over the UK. I suppose we can use this point as a benchmark to see which model verifies if any!! 

    The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    GFS overplaying the role of the Atlantic, with a deep area of low pressure eroding into the high pushing it further east and north.

    EC keeps feeding in the Easterly influence, Russia is being put into the deep freeze. 

    The  850s on the 0z operational run way above the mean and individual run

    Some runs AO suggest a return to neutral. But some  emsemble members are hitting rock bottom. 

    The Arctic polar vortex still looks very preturbed, with any arm of the cold potentially  extending southwards. 

    It is different this year. No doubt. Be patient. Winters coming. 

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It seems to me that the GFS is doing its classic dropping a trend and firing out a deep Atlantic low in the longer range. What's the chances(again) of it  modelling back to the NEly in a few days time. 

    The Ensembles runs in the longer run are all over the place and the GFS longer-term looks like an outlier.  Do best ignored. Blocking to the north everyone. Europe is suddenly going into the freezer.  And the NAO and AO are very negative. 

    No Atlantic weather anytime soon. 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    It seems to me that both the ECM and GFS are leading all roads to a colder path, the the GFS sending Polar air our way from the NE and the Nly. And the ECM preferring to bring Europe into the freezer first then us . That high pressure block to the North of us would be great news for cold winter loving peeps who are getting an early treat in mid November. 

    Big changes are afoot as we say goodbye to this horrid wet yucky sunless autumn. The Atlantic has been effectively shut off. Blocking to our North present.  Whether we get big dumpings of snow and is another question. 

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    What we are seeing is a move away from the hinting of  record warmth to a potential forward moving of attempt after attempt of a cold pattern and reloading wanting to take hold. This for me is what we seek, with a more ‘apparent’ route as we head to deep Nov. Encouraging indeed

    Welcome to the LIA Footprint.....it is upon us

    BFTP

    What's the LIA footprint Blasty?

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 days ago the GFS picked up this Nly pattern, and for the most part stuck to its guns, it isn't the first time its picked up a trend in the far reaches of the forecast, dropped the idea for 4-6 runs and then go it right. Ok Nly aint great for Southern snow lovers but if the 12Z is even within a sniff of what it has projected, the NE  of Scotland, the Northern Isles and Highlands are stuffed with widespread blizzards even to lower levels.

     

    And right now there is nothing to doubt what it is telling me given the GEM, ECM and ensembles are heading exactly the same way too.

     

    The key is this low and when it begins too deepen, Its timing is crucial to a wintry outbreak. However there is no doubt in my mind that given the pressure over Greenland, eventually this set sup will cause an outbreak of significantly  colder air from the north. How long it lasts for is another matter.. I suspect it will be a relatively short sharp blast of around 4 days.

    • Like 2

    Scotland - Alba Regional Discussion 20/03/13 21z ------>

    in Regional

    Posted

    Hi guys following on from the advice of Lorenzo

    Hi folks

    I have a little question and need a wee bit o help, we are talking agroup of gold DOE's out NE scotland week beginning 1st of april, the ECM seems to be pointing at a number of things. Do yoythink it will stay very cold or is it going to turn milder? I am feeling the hunch the later. Of course it is just your thoughts.

    Thanks Lotty xx

    A wee bit o help

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi folks

    I have a little question and need a wee bit o help, we are talking agroup of gold DOE's out NE scotland week beginning 1st of april, the ECM seems to be pointing at a number of things. Do yoythink it will stay very cold or is it going to turn milder? I am feeling the hunch the later. Of course it is just your thoughts.

    Thanks Lotty xx

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