Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will gradually veer to the NE tomorrow as a High pressure centre edges towards NW Britain tomorrow. A weak front over Scotland will decay as it moves slowly South. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming slowly less cold with a lot of dry and bright weather away from some rain in the North later. Some frosts at night still chiefly in the South and at first. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the cold trough over Europe lifting out over the coming days as the flow moves North to lie in a West to East flow pattern close to Scotland later next week, and continuing through Week 2 on the Northern periphery of High pressure close to Southern England and Northern France GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today splits into two halves with Week 1 illustrating dry and settled weather under a large UK based anticyclone with cold weather by night with sharp frosts especially in the South but with areas of cloud floating around too. Under this cloud temperatures should recover somewhat by day and night too should it prevail. In Week 2 the pattern changes to a more mixed scenario as the High drifts away to the East and SE however the week will still involve some High pressure based settled weather but also periods of cloudy and damp weather as troughs cross over from the West with a little rain in places. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is very similar in style as the operational shows High pressure more resistant against leaving the South through Week 2 while the North sees the more changeable weather under a stronger Westerly flow. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 75% likelihood of High pressure over or to the SW of the UK in 14 days with benign conditions and temperatures just a little below average but with frosts by night in the South. The remaining 25% offer something rather more unsettled with stronger winds and rain at times in a NW flow. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure in total control of the UK weather through the weekend and start to next week as it drifts into Ireland and then the South of the UK at the end of the run. Typical Winter Anticyclonic weather is likely with some bright and sunny weather mixed with cloudier sells with sharp night frosts where skies stay clear of cloud overnight. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show good support for the raw data with a few weak troughs drifting South increasing cloud cover and giving rise to a little rain, sleet or wintry showers in the SE for a time before all areas become settled and dry later. GEM GEM takes the GFS route today of bringing the High across the South of the UK next week and away to the ESE. This sets up a fall of pressure with a more marked freshening of Atlantic winds driving fronts across the North and West in particular with rain at times before the end of next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM holds High pressure across Southern Britain throughout next week with only the North seeing a Westerly breeze lifting temperatures near to normal here while the South sees occasional frosts still where skies clear with temperatures near or just a little below average. ECM ECM this morning shows total support for the same general theme of High pressure moving across the UK at the weekend and into the start of next week, gradually relaxing the centre to the South and SE later and feeding ever milder air down from the North later on a strengthening Westerly breeze. Only the North would see rain later though as pressure holds High close to the South. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates that High pressure will most likely lie close to the South of the UK next week and beyond. Conditions will slowly recover to fairly average temperatures and rather cloudy weather overall with patchy rain at times in the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards somewhat less cold but Anticyclonic conditions looks fully likely now with occasional rain more of a risk with time across the North. MY THOUGHTS The end of the cold spell looks guaranteed now at the weekend as High pressure off the Atlantic makes inroads into the UK from the west by the weekend and start to next week. There looks to be a good infill of cloud with time as weak fronts cross around the Northern flank of the High and down across the UK, lifting temperatures both by day and night and making for some rather benign and uninteresting weather. Still as the High pressure moves over the UK some frosts are still possible where skies stay clear this most likely in the South where temperatures could stay just a little shy of average in the flat calm. Then we have to look to how the pattern develops beyond that through the second week with the general consesnsus shown by the models today of the High slipping to the SE but staying close to the South. This will feed stronger Westerly winds across the North especially with fronts close enough by to give rise to outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. However, there remains good support for High pressure to remain close to the South with light winds and fair weather with just variances in cloud amounts making conditions difficult to predict then but it should stay dry. So in summary after the next few days it should become less cold rather than mild with a long period of largely benign weather with light winds, variable cloud cover and a little sunshine and patchy night frosts, these most likely over the South next week. Then we may see some slightly less settled weather encroach into Northern areas later as Westerly winds freshen. Issued at 08:30 Wednesday February 4th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold North and slowly strengthening NE flow will develop across the UK over the coming days as a ridge of High pressure moves into the NW later. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming slowly less cold with a lot of dry and bright weather away from some rain in the North later. Some frosts at night still chiefly in the South THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the UK lying on the cold side of the Jet flow currently but as High pressure builds over the UK the flow rides over the top of the UK meaning uppers rise and then continue in this form until later in the period.. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a simple pattern which persists through the entire run with High pressure currently approaching the NW of the UK slipping further South towards Southern Britain by the weekend. It then meanders around the South and West of the UK for the remainder of the period. The current cold North or NE flow would be cutoff with time along with the wintry showers across the SE and east until the weekend. Week 2 then looks dry and benign and somewhat less cold especially towards the North in NW winds here. The South would more likely continue rather cold with frosts at night but light winds and bright days. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows little significant differences in weather at the surface to the GFS operational with just small but subtle differences in the positioning of the High near or over the UK making local variances in the amounts of cloud and temperature levels the only major comparison day to day in the sustained High pressure pattern throughout. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 65% likelihood of High pressure near or to the SW of the UK in 14 days with benign conditions and temperatures just a little below average but with frosts by night in the South. The remaining 35% offer something rather more unsettled with stronger winds and rain at times. UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure building strongly over the UK in the next 5 or 6 days with a centre of High pressure well established near Southern Britain at the Day 6 period. The current North or NE flow will be cut off by the weekend removing the risk of wintry showers and turning things generally slowly less cold at least by day from the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show little overall difference to the raw data with High pressure centred firmly near Ireland by Monday with a ridge from it across a large part of the UK drawing less cold air gently South across the UK. GEM GEM today also shows High pressure dominating through it's run firstly cutting off the cold NE flow across the South by the weekend and then drawing less cold air from the North. then by next week a temporary spell of much stronger West winds over Scotland heightens the risk of rain here for a time before High pressure builds back North again later next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure in total control of the UK weather for the foreseeable future as it builds a centre across the UK by the weekend with fine and dry weather for all with temperatures somewhat less cold but still very frosty at night in places under very light winds. ECM ECM this morning shows total support for the same general theme of High pressure over or to the West of the UK with benign and dry conditions developing following the rest of the working week being cold and breezy with some wintry showers near the South and SE. Next week sees calm weather with temperatures somewhat higher by day but with still night frosts before the High is show to slip slowly South out of the UK by the end of the run bringing much milder and stronger Westerly winds down from the North later with rain in the far North. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the most likely position we will be in at the end of Day 10 will be one of High pressure close to Southern Britain with a Westerly flow to the North maintaining a lot of dry weather with any rain in the far North. Temperatures should recover away from Southern England where Anticyclonic conditions may maintain rather cold weather here with frost at night. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards somewhat less cold but Anticyclonic conditions remains through all the output this morning with a higher than average level of support between all the output. MY THOUGHTS High pressure is the main feature shown within all the model output near to the UK and maintaining a lot of dry and bright weather for the coming two weeks. The current cold pool of air across the UK is scheduled to decline over the end of the week but this process is likely to take a long time to reach the extreme South. However reach us it will and as uppers rise we will then rely on surface cold to develop under still conditions under the High pressure from the weekend on and this looks most likely across the South. From that time it looks like the North will see a strengthening of a West and NW flow carrying a lot of cloud in from the nearby Atlantic suppressing brightness and preventing frosts and this may well eek into the South at times too. So after the wintry showers of the rest of this working week any significant precipitation will be of rain and restricted to the far North late in the period with many places staying dry for a week or two from now. Then as I look into the far reaches of the output I can see two things. One, it looks unlikely that we will find ourselves falling into notable cold again soon as High pressure locates close to but unfavourably likely to be South or SW of the UK maintaining a feed of air from the West and NW across the UK. Secondly it looks like staying largely dry for the first two weeks of February with many places seeing very little if any rain through the entire 15 days of this morning's model output providing they verify of course. So as has been the case all Winter we return to nomansland in the longer term with little desire to rise pressure North of the UK and sustaining the fact that we will continue to have to look towards the North for any cold to return later in the month rather than from the East. Issued at 08:00 Tuesday February 3rd 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will slowly give way to a cold NE flow of winds across the UK tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near Eastern coasts. before becoming largely dry and possibly less cold in the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe lifting as the Jet flow over the Atlantic then rounds the Northern periphery of a UK based High pressure from later this week. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the cold weather continuing with High pressure gradually taking control of the UK weather in the coming week. The current Northerly flow is shown to veer NE with snow showers affecting Eastern and Central areas of England for a time through the week before High pressure ridging in over Scotland and Northern Ireland gradually cuts the cold flow off but leave calm, dry and bright and cold weather with frosts at night the largest factor of the UK weather from then on throughout week 2. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows little significant differences in weather at the surface to the GFS operational with just small but subtle differences in the positioning of the High near or over the UK making local variances in the amounts of cloud and temperature levels the only major comparison day to day in the sustained High pressure pattern throughout. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 45% likelihood of High pressure across Southern Britain in 14 days time while 50% go for a Low pressure based pattern with the UK under Westerly winds. The remaining 5% shows a cold Northerly flow between High pressure to the West and Low to the East. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong build of pressure from the Atlantic lying to the West of Ireland by next weekend extending a ridge across the UK. The weather would stay cold and bright with sunny spells by day and frost at night. Winds will remain NE but light over Southern England while a slightly stronger NW flow over the NW brings less cold and more cloudy air over these areas at times next weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts differ little from the UKMO raw output data this morning. GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of this week as an intense High centre positions itself close to the West of Ireland late this week and then just meanders around close to the UK for the remainder of the run. The weather would become benign and rather boring in type with successive days of bright and dry weather with some sunshine but with variable and sometimes large amounts of cloud especially over the North. Temperatures would ease up with time but frosts at night would remain commonplace where skies clear. NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains the High pressure theme of the rest with the positioning crucial in whether the weather be cold or not. The South is shown to stay cold with something of an east or NE breeze whereas the North may see less cold air filter across from the NW at times later in more cloud cover. ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming the dominant feature of the UK weather over the period once we lose the Cold and unstable North and NE airflow over the UK until later in the week. The High then slowly sinks from a position over or to the West of the UK to a point to the SW with milder and stronger Westerly winds gradually taking hold for many by Day 10 though any rain looks largely restricted to the North. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the trough currently over Europe relaxing away East as pressure rises to the South of the UK (including to the S) indicating a slow return to Atlantic Westerly winds and milder air by the middle of next week. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has maintained universal support from the models for High pressure to be situated near the UK from later this week on with modified cold conditions persisting in fine and benign conditions. MY THOUGHTS Well if you like large mid latitude Winter High pressure areas near the UK then this morning's outputs should float your boat as almost without exception all models show a period of a week at least where such a High will dominate the weather over the UK. We first have to lose the cold North then NE flow of this working week with snow showers numerous in the East for a time but lose them we will over next weekend. The High through the period will be ridging in towards Scotland and will intensify too bringing sustained dry and bright weather with overnight frosts and bright days. The positioning of the High will be crucial in how things are at the surface but with most models looking like keeping it just to the West of the UK a slack NE flow could be maintained over the South while a slack NW flow in the North will most likely encourage a gradual infill of cloud from the Atlantic though much in the way of rain seems unlikely. Temperatures look like being on the cold side of average especially in the South though daytime maxima are likely to ease upwards with time while night minima will be reflected upon whether there is cloud cover or not though it seems inevitable that frost at night will feature prominently especially in the Central and Southern regions of Britain. Then the longer term ensemble members of GFS and ECM in general indicate a sinking High gradually bringing more and more of the UK in milder and perhaps more changeable Westerly winds with rain at times by the end of next week and the second weekend though the speed and extent of this is speculative given the time range. So in summary if it's snow your after I'm afraid it is looking increasingly unlikely that anymore large scale snowfalls look like happening under this current cold spell with the window of any opportunity closing further as the week progresses and the fine, bright and rather cold conditions of a large slow moving High pressure area takes hold. Issued at 08:00 Monday February 2nd 2015

I had to laugh at this post. It can snow in the South of England and has in many years right out to late April and is no more rare than snow in Winter months late years. Also dew points are less of an issue as Spring moves on with snowfall possible with temperatures of 8C or more in a cold showery North flow in April. Settling or disruptive April snow is a bit more rare but not unheard of. Sorry Mods OT.

Don't like the ECM tonight. Those mid latitude High's are stubborn brutes to shift and aligned to the West as the 12z shows brings days of benign rather cloudy weather with frosts and cold weather relaxing day by day in the NW flow. My most boring weather type and hope it's wrong. PS Looks like I might be wrong as the 240 hr chart shifts it SE quite quickly. Not sure if I like that move either. Oh well it's only the weather.

Sorry rather late this morning but better late than never. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will continue across the UK with minor disturbances in the flow gradually clearing away South. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold in the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out somewhat to a WNW to ESE flow just South of the UK later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold North and then NE for much of the UK over this coming week as further disturbances run South across the UK on Tuesday with another mix of rain and snow followed by a veer of wind to NE as pressure builds in from the west cutting off the cold feed from all but South and East England next weekend. The weather will stay cold and anticyclonic as High pressure sits over or near the UK from day 6-10 before the High collapses slowly SE and allows less cold Westerly winds to move in across many areas at least for a time at the end of the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is in many ways a replica of the operational in theme with just differences in speed and extent of the breakdown away from High pressure in Week 2 with only a slow pick up in temperatures more likely for the North and West in the largely dry pattern of weather. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 65%/35% split in favour of an Anticyclone lying near or over the UK in 14 days time giving rise to dry and fine if cold conditions with frosts at night. The remaining 35% go for a more Atlantic type pattern with Low pressure to the North or NE in West or NW winds. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure building in from the West through the latter stages of this week with the NE feed across the South weakening by next weekend as a ridge of High pressure lies across the UK with fine and frosty conditions replacing the snow showers of the late working week. From the Day 6 chart High pressure to the west looks like setting up to deliver a further push of cold air from the North in the following week.. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a slow build of pressure through the week as an Atlantic High becomes more dominant. The precursor to that will be a series of weak disturbances running South at times giving rise to patchy rain and sleet and snow showers on the temporary NE feed in the second part of the week for the South and East. GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of this week as a ridge extends East from it across the UK sinking South later cutting off the cold NE feed and snow showers with little wind and cold frosty conditions. Then the High recedes back out into the Atlantic towards the SW and sets up a benign WNW airflow with gradually rising temperatures and rather cloudy but dry conditions for many for the start of week 2. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the Northerly then NE feed going throughout the first 4 days of the working week with snow showers in the East before High pressure takes control centred over Scotland next weekend with quiet and settled conditions with sharp frosts and freezing fog patches likely but compensatory sunny days. ECM ECM this morning also shows High pressure becoming the dominant feature of the UK weather over the period once we lose the Cold and unstable North and NE airflow over the UK until later in the week. The High then sets up residence across the UK with very frosty nights but bright, cold but sunny days for many. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the likelihood of High pressure lying over or close to the UK in 10 days time with fine and settled weather. The coldest weather is likely in the South as some members show a milder westerly flow over the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has gained universal support from the models for High pressure to replace the current cold Northerly flow later next week and beyond. The resting place of such a High is yet to be determined. MY THOUGHTS The cold spell continues across the UK and though for many I'm sure it is nothing more than slightly below par period of temperatures with little in the way of frost as yet some areas have at least seen some snowfall and this pattern is set to continue for some days yet with maybe some new areas who have yet to see snow at risk of at least a little, principally from Tuesday to Thursday as a disturbance runs South over the UK veering the North wind to NE opening the door for the East and SE to run the risk of snow showers. After Tuesday the risk of snow in the SW is minimal and in any event there is now almost universal support for High pressure to ridge in across the UK from the West, certainly by next weekend cutting off any remaining NE flow and settling the weather down to a typical Winter Anticyclone type with overnight sharp frosts and freezing fog patches with bright and sunny days and in these the South will feel quite pleasant in the near calm conditions and rising sun elevation. It's then that the differences in evolution between the models become apparent but not in any particularly dynamic sort of way. Most models want to move High pressure away from the UK in week 2 with the UKMO looking to pull it West and perhaps set up a new Northerly later. ECM holds it firm across the UK with quite a lot of support from it's ensemble members from it's own group and GFS too. What isn't shown is any type of Easterly flow developing nor a raging Atlantic westerly either so the odds on favourite is that after this weeks sleet and snow showers finally give way then the rest of the period looks dry and fine but rather cold by day and very cold by night with frost and freezing fog patches especially over any still remaining lying snow by then. Issued at 08:00 Sunday February 1st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold Northerly flow will blow down across the UK over the next 48hrs with various showery troughs feeding South at times too. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold in the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out somewhat to a WNW to ESE flow just South of the UK later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold weather hanging in across much of the UK, particularly the South as pressure builds towards and over the NW later next week tilting the winds towards the NE and replacing the current wintry showers in the North more towards the East and SE later next week. Frosts and dry bright weather will be endorsed elsewhere later next week. Then in week 2 the High over the NW finally sinks SE across the UK and on into Europe with milder SW winds for all then last to reach the SE. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is even more dogged in maintaining cold in parts of the UK with the South never leaving cold through much of week 2 either as High pressure is held over the North and cold East winds blow for longer over the South with some wintry showers in places. the end of the run sees all areas more unsettled but certainly not warm as cold pockets of air remain close to or over the UK. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 760/40 split in High pressure ending up in a position to the NW or West of the UK in 15 days time with further cold weather in North or NE winds across the UK. The 40% takes up options around milder Westerly winds taking control with High pressure to the South and SE. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show cold weather across the UK next week as High pressure to the West of the UK edges in closer to the West and North early next week. Wintry showers look like becoming less prevalent away from the SE as winds fall lighter but with sharp frosts at night almost everywhere. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex pressure pattern under cold and unstable North winds. There are various troughs featured moving South in the flow but this morning they are shown to be mostly away from land either to the West or East of the UK probably meaning a lot of dry, bright and cold weather away from windward coasts where sleet or snow showers continue likely. GEM GEM today shows High pressure gradually taking control of the weather as we move through the latter part of next week as a ridge extends East from it across the UK sinking South later. So wintry showers early in the week should be replaced by largely dry, bright and cold weather with hard frosts for many before milder air reaches the North on strengthening Westerly winds later. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the Northerly feed going throughout the run this morning with further disturbances running South in the flow delivering enhanced wintry showers of sleet and snow at times chiefly but not exclusively over coastal areas in the West, North and East especially in the east towards the middle of next week as winds turn NE for a while. ECM ECM this morning also shows another week of cold weather across the UK before a moderation in conditions under Atlantic WNW'lies develop by the end of the weekend. Last to see this change will be the SE where cold weather and a NE flow for a time may maintain a risk of wintry showers before the High pressure takes over and backs winds off to the WNW. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning indicates the likelihood of a large Winter anticyclone having dominance across the UK in 10 days time probably over the South with cold, bright weather with frosts at night. The North may see rather less cold Westerly winds at times later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to slowly grow for High pressure to replace the current cold Northerly flow later next week and beyond. The resting place of such a High is yet to be determined. MY THOUGHTS The cold Northerly feed of air across the UK between Low pressure to the East and High to the West continues to prove stubborn to shift in this morning's output. All models show the flow maintained through at least the first half of next week tilting towards the NE midweek as High pressure makes it's move towards Northern Britain. This brings NE winds and the coldest weather to the South and East where wintry showers in the SE look likely while many other areas become dry, cold and frosty. Later in the week the general consensus seems to be to migrate the High pressure ridge further South and cut off the cold feed in the South too by then but still with sharp frosts at night. Then as we move into Week 2 things remain far from clear and if cold weather is displaced then it will remain close by to the East and as High pressure is likely to remain over the Atlantic further injections from the North seem quite likely at times so anyone looking for particularly mild conditions will be disappointed by that news. However, snowfall remains very hard to pin down in detail and for many will continue not to be an issue with little or none in shelter. Higher ground and in the East next week could see a shift in emphasis in snow distribution as winds veer NE for a time but the threat of anything for the SW of note seems to have receded from this morning's output. So in summary for many a typical cold wintry spell continues, nothing exceptional with a gradual lightening of winds next week and an increase in severity of frosts looking likely but with compensatory bright sunshine at times and given that it will be February from tomorrow sunshine at least looks stronger in the extending daylight hours. Issued at 08:00 Saturday January 31st 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and windy NW flow will continue across the UK over the next 24-48hrs veering slowly more Northerly tomorrow with showery troughs of Low pressure moving SE across the UK at times. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining cold with some snow showers especially near northern coasts. Becoming dry and possibly less cold later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the deep trough in the flow across Europe currently remaining for another week or so before signs of the trough lifting out to a UK based Jet flow West to East flow is shown later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows cold weather likely to continue across the UK for the reliable future. With winds mostly from the North coastal areas will experience wintry showers and as various disturbances run SE close to or over the UK more organized bands of precipitation could give more widespread and significant snowfall especially in the West and SW early next week. Later in the period High pressure ridges across the UK slowly cutting off the cold feed with frost and sunny days replacing any snow showers. By the far end of the run milder SW winds look like pushing the ridge slowly away to the South. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run differs in as much as it develops a UK based High pressure area across Britain by the second week lasting some considerable time with dry and sunny days but very cold and frosty nights for all. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters show a 70% chance of the UK under the influence of High pressure lying close by either over or to the South of the UK. The majority holds the High closest to Southern Britain with a greater chance of milder Atlantic SW'lies affecting the North by Day 15. UKMO UKMO this morning looks cold throughout with small disturbances running South to the West of the UK early next week with the risk of more prolonged rain or snowfall for a time while the snow shower theme continues elsewhere. By the end of the run High pressure inching in just to the West of the UK looks like sustaining cold weather with some severe night time frosts where snow is lying but eliminating the risk of further snow showers. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate the complexity of the situation in the Northerly winds with further disturbances in the flow running South and SE over or close to the UK enhancing the risk of more widespread rain or snow at times in the otherwise cold and showery feed. GEM GEM today shows another week of this cold and wintry pattern of weather with further wintry showers in places especially near exposed West, north and East coasts and also with the risk of more widespread wintry precipitation at times as disturbances run South in the flow. Then a ridge topples SE across the UK late next week with milder SW winds then extending to all areas by the end of the period. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK through next week veering winds towards the NE as a ridge of High pressure lies NE to SW across Scotland by next weekend maintaining cold and frosty weather in the North and keeping a breeze from the NE over the South with wintry showers near Eastern coasts. ECM ECM this morning also shows another week of cold weather across the UK before a moderation in conditions under Atlantic WNW'lies develop by the end of the weekend. Last to see this change will be the SE where cold weather and a NE flow for a time may maintain a risk of wintry showers before the High pressure takes over and backs winds off to the WNW. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning maintains a trough across Europe with an Atlantic anticyclone to the SW North of the Azores. This pattern is no doubt made up of varying scenarios mostly revolving around the likelihood of winds maintained from a North or NW source over the UK for some considerable time yet. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is firming up somewhat in a moderation in the cold conditions across the UK later next week as High pressure moves over bringing a different type of weather with sunny days and frosty night more likely than sleet and snow. The trend for the High to slip away South much later has gained some momentum this morning from ensemble output. MY THOUGHTS The UK lies under two regimes at the moment. Some especially in the North and Central regions lie under a blanket of snow while many others have none and in these areas the cold spell will be most likely viewed currently as a non event. However, irrespective of snowfall or not the cold NW wind is and will continue to be felt by all with significant windchill for all and it's this that remains the most impactive feature of this spell. Of course those enthusiasts on here will be looking for snow and the risk continues for there to be further snowfall at times, probably in similar areas to those that have experienced it already. However, early next week offers a chance for the SW and West to see a risk of snowfall although this morning's output seem to hold things a little too far West for that to be guaranteed. Then as we move deeper into next week there is strong support for the Northerly flow to loosen it's grip in the wake of an Atlantic High pressure which although maintaining the cold would eliminate snow showers and give rise to sharp night frosts especially over snowfields of the North. Then further out still there is gathering momentum that this High will then slip South and bring in less cold Atlantic air around a relocated High to the SW of the UK in Week 2. It is still far too early to call that evolution as likely to be correct and it maybe that further prolonging of the cold spell crops up in the coming days. The one disappointment for cold lovers though is the lack of desire to rise pressure significantly to the North and NE later in the period which unless happens will be more likely to end up guaranteeing the end of the cold spell from next weekend as the Atlantic Westerlies regain a foothold. Issued at 08:00 Friday January 30th 2015

A bit precise but much closer to the mark than many on here. The snow of course will be to the North and East of that track and strong winds and potential thunderstorms on a more dramatic SW side.

IMO I think many of posters here have an inaccurate track of this feature. I'm fairly certain it will track on current trajectory down through the spine of Wales, Bristol and the IOW. Snowfall East of that but how far uncertain and yes severe gales for a short time to the SW of it. Not quite sure which side of the coin I lie on. Time will tell.

I think this is the feature that is predicted to make its way down over Wales and SW England tonight. A strong wind warning for here as well as snow after midnight. Sorry OT

Something from IF on the SW Regional Thread re the small Low slider early next week. It's all still very marginal next week with developments Mon-Tues. An awkward rain v snow situation depending on track, scope of deepening and phasing with diurnal cycle. ECMWF-DET remains at the extreme end of solutions (offering disruptive snow W Mids/parts of W Country/S-Central England) but with discernable move of UKMO-GM towards the *broad* scheme of things; i.e. trend to pull the low centre a bit closer to SW UK. EC 00Z ENS continue to offer a fair range of solutions, including deeper centres running further to E; equally many are much less developmental. For now, we continue with a low (30%) PROB of something unfolding akin to EC DET outcome. Rest assured it's a key point for our attention into medium range, with constant re-assessment at Ops Centre. We will keep you fully updated via BBC forecasts but I do urge suitably cautious acceptance of hyperbole or any attempts (for now) at deterministic forecasts re snow/areas affected/etc etc. We are a way off getting to that level of forecast confidence or detail.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold and windy WNW flow will continue across the UK over the next 24-48hrs with showery troughs of Low pressure moving SE across the UK at times. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times before becoming less cold and changeable again by next weekend. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over NW Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens and weakens as the trend towards High pressure to the SW and perhaps NE makes for some sort of link and stalling any would be major attack from the Atlantic away from the NW. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues to show Northerly winds blowing across the UK through the weekend and much of next week with a slow relaxation of conditions later as High pressure builds NE across the UK from off the Atlantic. In the meantime showers of sleet and snow will affect all Northern, Western and Eastern coasts with the risk of more prolonged sleet or snow in the West for a time early next week. From next weekend on conditions are shown to become more changeable with rain and showers at times, wintry on hills still under Low pressure disrupting from the NW over the UK for a time before Atlantic SW'lies are shown at the very end of the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is much the same in the sequence of events with a cold Northerly for a week before High pressure builds across the UK later with cold and frosty conditions for many with this pattern largely. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are are a real mix of options with the majority showing High pressure of some sort near the UK but no real agreement on positioning which of course is fundamental on conditions of air source across the UK. there are still some more unsettled options shown too including some disruption of Low pressure to the SW of the UK by 10% of options. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show the UK in a very cold Northerly flow well into the middle of next week and probably longer with unstable air and disturbances running down from the NW next week enhancing the risk of more widespread snowfall for the West for a time early next week before a High pressure ridge attached to a centre over the Atlantic moves slowly SE down across the UK by the end of the week with cold and frosty weather likely then but much less in the way of wintry precipitation. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a concoction of fronts embedded on cold air slipping South across the UK over the next 72-96 hours. Thereafter, Low pressure sliding South to the West of the UK could complicate things in the far West in an otherwise more straightforward and cold Northerly flow next week. GEM GEM is the pick of the bunch for cold lovers this morning as it takes our cold spell into unchartered territory this Winter. The Northerly is still shown in place for the start of next week but on this run pressure builds to the NW and this then drifts across towards Scandinavia with North winds veering NE and maintaining their strength and continuing to carry snow showers across many Eastern and Northern areas and perhaps the South too with the far West looking brightest and driest later. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK well into next week with snow showers in places but the flow is cut off later in the period for late next week as a High pressure ridge collapses SE over the UK. ECM ECM this morning shows cold and unstable conditions through the next week with mostly Northerly winds and snow showers the likely scenario with the chance of more prolonged wintry precipitation for a time in the SW early next week and again more generally later before the cold finally looks like relaxing its grip at the end of the run at the expense of Atlantic WSW'lies. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning remains in nomansland but indicates a cold pool remaining over Europe while the UK lies on the Western periphery of this. High pressure over NE Europe is hinted at here and a quiet spell of weather for the UK is how I would deduce things likely to be at Day 10. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather through the next week. The longevity of the spell has remained about a week as there is still the desire from most output to bring a cessation of the cold Northerly feed and introduce something less cold from the West by next weekend. MY THOUGHTS The models continue to handle the cold period well with just small scale features harder to pick up within the generally cold and wintry theme. The current cold weather will intensify come the weekend as a more direct flow from the North takes hold and replaces the wintry mix on the showers in the South until then. Northern areas as usual in Northerly set up's will see the biggest share of snowfall, disruptive at times over the hills. For other areas to join in this fun we have to await any small scale disturbances ruinning South or SE in the flow and one such feature looks like possibly affecting Western and SW Britain early next week and providing the air is cold enough could give some sizeable snow amounts over the hills. not all places will see snow and inland Central Britain may miss it entirely with just bright and cold weather with frosts by night. Then we have to look for the end of the spell which still looks likely to come from the West as a ridge of High pressure from our old friend the Azores high creeps across late next week. How significant this ridge is will determine events thereafter with a real mix of options shown with some keeping High pressure and cold and dry weather across the UK while others show milder air filtering in from the west by 10 days, notably ECM while GEM goes the other route in sending High pressure North of the UK and setting up a true Easterly wintry blast. Which is right will not be determined for some while yet with plenty of options likely to crop up in upcoming model runs before an eventual coming together of thoughts will probably arise by the end of the weekend. Issued at 08:00 Wednesday January 28th 2015

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS USING DATA SUPPLIED BY THE NWP OUTPUT COVERING 5 OF THE WORLDS MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Cold fronts will clear SE out of the UK later today leading into a very cold and strong WNW flow with wintry showers tonight and tomorrow.. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times before becoming less cold and changeable again beyond next week. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over NW Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens markedly over the Atlantic and Europe with the flow then moving in a more traditional and flatter West to East motion over or close to Southern England between High pressure re-established to the South of the UK and Low to the North. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues to show an extension of the cold theme under Northerly winds throughout much of next week now with various disturbances running SE in the flow to enhance the coastal snow showers into the threat of more organized and widespread spells of sleet and snow at times. Later in the run the cold Northerly or NE feed by then is dislodged in preference to milder or even mild SW winds with rain at times more notably towards the North and West as a ridge collapses away from the UK. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly similar in many respects to the operational in the short to mid term but it shows support for cold weather to last for much of the run as High pressure ridging over the UK in 10 days eventually sets up a Scandinavian High pressure with a cold South-East feed developing especially across the South with the threat of snow as pressure falls to the SW. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters are not much interested in any control developing from High pressure to the East with a 75% to 25% majority in favour of Atlantic Westerlies overpowering our cold North feed by the end of the forecast period. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show the UK in a very cold Northerly flow well into the middle of next week and probably longer with unstable air and disturbances running down from the NW next week enhancing the risk of more widespread snowfall for all in the otherwise snow showery type theme with a lot of inland dry if very cold and sunny weather with all areas at risk of sharp night frosts. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show an array of fronts crossing South and SE in cold and unstable air for most of the period out to 120hrs. A wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow showers or longer spells of snow for a few is possible from such an unstable airflow. GEM GEM today also takes until the end of next week to displace the cold feed and in the period leading up to the flattening pattern from the West shows plenty of frontal activity in the cold Northerly airflow to offer many areas at least the risk of snowfall between now and then. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK right out to the end of the run with High pressure gradually replacing the cold and unstable Northerly flow across the UK at the end of next week with widespread frosts. ECM ECM this morning maintains cold weather to right out to the end of it's run today with as per NAVGEM High pressure ridging across the UK by Day 10 to take us out of the cold and unstable Northerly feed with quiet and cold fine and frosty weather by the end of next week. Synoptics shown at Day 10 looks ripe for a repeat of another cold plunge South next weekend. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning has slanted back towards a somewhat colder theme today with the Jet flow positioned further South a still some troughing across Europe. This chart is no doubt made up of colder options mixed with some Atlantic Westerly type scenarios and is not particularly a good guide within this current stand off. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell has reverted back to a rather longer period as complications running down from the NW within the cold air extends the cold somewhat. MY THOUGHTS Well here we are at the point of entry into the cold spell which has been well handled by all the models in the run up to it with little variation in how we got here. It looks from this morning's output that apart from a slightly less cold interlude on Friday when precipitation could be of rain for low lying Britain that snow will be much more likely at times but it's all a question of where. More about that in a moment. The main talking point for folks as it always has been will be how cold it feels with a strong and locally gale wind feeding across the UK first from the WNW and then the North. The marked windchill that this gives will be of the like not felt so far this Winter. In compensation though there should be some good sunny spells and this should offset the chill to some degree but not much. then we come to the question of snow. This is the hardest nut to crack because as well as dealing with the notoriously variability of showers snow showers are even more unpredictable. The general line of thought is that all Northern, Western and Eastern coasts and hills will fair well with inland areas less likely to see many and for these areas we rely on minor troughs and features running South within the flow to see much in the way of snow here. The fax charts show that there will be some and a more noteworthy risk develops early next week as a small low tracks SSE from Iceland over western Britain. This then leads on to the expected longevity of the spell which has been extended by most output to take us out to the end of next week, mostly due to the Icelandic feature just mentioned early next week. Then at the extreme end of reality it still looks like a relaxation of cold either in the form of High pressure or Atlantic westerlies look likely but even then there is some suggestion of an European high of sorts to keep 'coldies' interested. So all in all a lot to keep an eye on over the coming days or weeks but remember the cold spell is almost here so don't miss it by keeping your heads into your computers all day looking for polar Lows and the likes when the cold spell will be unfolding right before your very eyes outside of your own windows. Issued at 08:00 Wednesday January 28th 2015

What is it with this word 'shortwave' and who invented it on the forums. Why don't people just say Low pressure area so that people can understand what is meant. It's a term that I haven't ever used in my reports and never will. I'm not aware that the Met use it either, certainly not on the media.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY JANUARY 27TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY JANUARY 28TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strengthening SW flow ahead of active cold fronts crossing SE over the UK tonight and tomorrow will be followed by an increasingly cold and windy westerly flow tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times before becoming less cold and changeable again later next week. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens markedly over the Atlantic and Europe with the flow returning North across the UK between High pressure re-established to the South of the UK and Low to the North. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues to illustrate the colder theme of weather now for the rest of this week, the weekend and the start to next week with cold West, NW then North winds with wintry and snow showers affecting all areas at some point across the UK with the exposed areas facing NW and North. A marked wind-chill will accompany the cold period. Then as we move through next week milder air will try to dislodge the cold from the Atlantic and a messy mix of rain and snow will accompany that before a slow return to milder SW winds and occasional rain arrives later in the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is not fully available at time of publish but as far as it goes show a lessening of the cold spell as we move into next week from the West. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters also are only available up to 132hrs today and show a cold and wintry NNW flow across the UK in total domination at that point. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to show the UK in a very cold Northerly flow to start next week with plenty of snow showers flooding South across the UK with only Central inland areas of Southern Britain least at risk. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show plenty of troughs feeding South and SE in the cold flow from tomorrow giving rise to plenty of instability sufficient to give many areas the risk of either wintry or snow showers, the latter especially at the weekend as the flow turns more Northerly. GEM GEM today continues to show the dissolve of the cold weather early next week in the wake of less cold but very unstable westerly winds with heavy rain and gales likely at times with wintry showers at times too, these especially in the North. NAVGEM NAVGEM today keeps the cold going over the UK into next week with a ridge eventually cutting off the cold North flow by Tuesday but with the likelihood of it remaining cold with the possibly of a battleground snow event towards the West by midweek ECM ECM this morning looks very messy as the cold northerly flow dissolves away early next week. Temperatures are shown to steadily rise by day at least as a broad ridge crosses the UK from the West. Frosts are still likely at night though and it would likely stay largely dry. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning looks like broadly setting the UK back on it's default position later next week as Low pressure lies well to the NW and High pressure to the South with broadly westerly winds likely across the UK and a much less marked trough over Europe. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell has firmed up somewhat on milder conditions returning from the West as we move deeper into next week. MY THOUGHTS The cold period is almost upon us now and remarkably the models have held firm on it's evolution of this spell from the weekend. However, the models have found it less easy to agree on the end of the spell which is looking likely towards the middle of next week. In the meantime there is concrete support for a cold and windy West, NW then North wind over the coming 5-6 days starting tomorrow with snow and sleet opportunities for many on all days though as always the hills of the North and West will probably fair best. I know we shouldn't be looking for the end of the spell before it arrives but I wouldn't be giving my report much credibility by not and it does look like there is very good support for less cold conditions to move across from the West by the middle of next week give a day or two. The way that happens is shown by most models to be a real cocktail of options at the moment but the likely scenario is for Westerly winds to regain a foothold across the UK by next weekend with rain at times. GEM shows a more extreme version of this with gales and heavy rain on a strong Westerly flow and the ECM 10 day Mean chart is ugly if it's continued cold your looking for. However, the operationals over the last few runs have shown much volatility in their range of options so I feel the ensembles tell a truer picture and that suggests milder weather as we progress through next week. Nevertheless we have a period of 5-6 days when there is some good opportunity for snow even in the South and though inevitably some will see little or none there will be some who see a lot with disruption and news coverage likely but overall by this time next week I think we will be seeing a moderation in the cold and a gradual return to a more default position we have been in for much of this Winter.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY JANUARY 26TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY JANUARY 27TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will follow the cold front out of SE Britain this morning. Then following the ridge will be a return to a milder SW flow with troughs affecting the NW by tomorrow gradually easing SE later. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming colder with snow showers or snow at times. Then becoming less cold and changeable again in Week 2. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows a week long spell with a deep trough over Europe keeping the flow well South of the UK in NW winds. In week 2 the pattern flattens markedly over the Atlantic and Europe with the flow returning North across the UK between High pressure re-established to the South of the UK and Low to the North. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a colder plunge of Arctic winds later this week as Low pressure transfers SE down the North Sea and then further East over Europe. Winds from the NW then North will deliver snow showers to many later in the week with settling snow in places as well as longer sells of sleet or snow too here and there. Then as we move into next week less cold air spills down from the NW as High pressure becomes more dominant again close to SW Britain with outbreaks of rain and wintry showers at times in the North the likely pattern by the end of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows the operational this morning firming up on a rather quicker change back to less cold Westerly winds next week with some rain at times mostly in the North. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today support the operational and control runs much better than yesterday with a return to normal service of Westerly winds around Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South as we move through next week with an almost two thirds majority supporting this pattern. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to illustrate a dip into cold and wintry conditions later in the week as from Wednesday the currently benign weather pattern turns into strong NW then North winds with snow showers peppering all exposed locations facing North and giving rise to frosts by night and the risk of more sustained snowfall as disturbances will no doubt pop up at short notice and move South within the flow. This pattern taking us round to next Sunday though by then a ridge lies closer to the West to likely cut off the north flow early next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the tracks of the raw data well but due to their human input illustrate much clearer how unstable the cold airflow will be late this week with bands of organised wintry showers, many of snow sweeping down over the UK at times later this week and next weekend. GEM GEM today is a little different to GFS in as much as it makes much more of the ridge over the Atlantic next weekend and over the start of the new week with ridging all the way to Iceland. The net result is shifting winds around to the NE and prolonging the cold for several more days than GFS as the High only slowly dislodges the cold winds from the NW late next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the shift to cold and windy conditions too after Wednesday with Low pressure close by over the North Sea bringing showers or longer spells of wintry precipiation in places especially thise with exposure to the North and NW. The end of the run does illustrate a backing of winds towards the NW as the High pressure ridge over the Atlantic steadily collapses and eventually allowing milder winds to move into the Uk from the NW and west as we move through next week. ECM ECM this morning also takes up the baton of somewhat less cold air filtering into the UK from the West and NW early next week as the High pressure ridge over the Atlantic collapses under pressure form Low's exiting Canada. It looks like taking quite a while for anything significantly less cold to reach the South with a High pressure ridge extending from the Azores across Southern Britain to Denmark with frosty conditions still possible here while the North sees milder Westerly winds and occasional rain. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning supports the evolution that Low pressure will lie to the NE and East of the UK over Scandinavia and Europe as well as Greenland. Contrastingly High pressure is shown to most likely to be ridged between the Azores and Iceland keeping the UK under a cold feed from the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell has firmed up somewhat on milder conditions returning from the West as we move deeper into next week. MY THOUGHTS There is little change in the output this morning with regard to the onset of the sharp cold spell midweek. However, there is some shift away from extending the cold too far into next week as most output has firmed up on the Atlantic ridge supporting the cold flow later this week collapsing SE and allowing a feed of less cold West or NW winds across the UK. It comes down once more to the inability of pressure to be able to build far enough North across the Atlantic towards Greenland or Iceland with only GEM offering much support in that field this morning. Nevertheless, this was always likely to be the most likely scenario to come out of this cold spell and unlike yesterday it is just that we now have almost cross model support for this to become the case. Coldies should not be disheartened however as in the short term nothing has changed and all parts of the UK can look forward to 5 or 6 days at least of cold North or NW winds driving down across the UK with sleet and snow showers and no doubt some longer spells of snow too in places. Frosts and windchill will be notable factors for many and no doubt some disruption is likely to develop in the North especially. Then as we move into next week winds look like backing more NW then West with more changeable conditions returning with bands of rain crossing East and followed by colder weather with wintry showers in the NW, in other terms a return to the pattern of much of the Winter thus far. This change looks likely it will be last to reach the SE with ECM indicating a cold ridge still across Southern Britain by Thursday of next week though this scenario is less likely having looked at the ECM 9 and 10 day mean chart. My own thoughts this morning that the cold will likely wane next week but I still think we are likely to see further attacks from the North later in February as the persistent pattern of the Winter up to this point now looks like persisting in the period towards the end of the meteorological Winter with little support for much chance of anything likely from the East while the polar vortex in the Greenland area remains so strong. For thise who like cold and snow sit back and enjoy what transpires from Wednesday. It is an ocean away from what we witnessed last Winter and is about the normal standard cold snap we experience in the UK, both in strength and duration.

Not true Im afraid. The latest Stats as usual put ECM ahead of GFS on all but the 8 day when GFS nudges ahead. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day5_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 5 Day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day8_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 8 Day http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/allmodel/daily/cor/cor_day10_PMSL_MSL_G2NHX.png 10 Day

Can't understand some of the negativity on here through the run up to the expected cold spell. I'll again say we have the best cross model support for a strong northerly that we have seen for several years in the UK. Perhaps some people would rather see a straight westerly feed with uppers in the + category. People need to chill out and not worry about uppers too high or marginal. The Northern hemisphere is at it's coldest point in the season right now and I will guarantee with the exception of any small frontal features injecting warm sectors within the flow precipitation will be of snow all the way to ground level from Thursday, certainly to the North and for much of the time in the South too especially from next weekend on. I concede a lot of inland Central UK will stay largely dry but coastal West, North and East could do very well for snow and that includes Cornwall. I honestly feel that people tend to spend too much time analysing the charts in too much depth that they often miss the cold spell and snow evolving around them because their heads are stuck in the computer looking for the inevitable end. I sometimes wonder whether folks are obsessed by Model watching rather than the weather itself. My advice is take a break and just view the models twice a day 00zs and possibly the 12zs and reserve judgement to once a day' It has really helped me as like many on here and the other side I once became obsessed by every model run to the point where it distorted my mind and thoughts. Using the above tact I now see things in a comparable day to day environment rather than run to run

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY JANUARY 25TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY JANUARY 26TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A milder SW flow will extend across all areas today followed by a cold front moving SE across the UK tonight and leading to a ridge of High pressure moving into the UK from the West later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times but some drier spells too. Less cold. Turning more generally unsettled and very cold again later with snow in places, especially over the North and East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow driving sharply South over Europe later next week and ridging North across mid Atlantic keeping the UK on the cold side of a Southeast moving flow to the SW of the UK by next weekend. thereafter following the model members data the pattern flattens to a West to East flow over the UK in Week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows the benign Westerly flow across the UK early this week strengthening and slowly veering from Wednesday as cold and blustery weather with wintry showers extend South midweek. Deep Low pressure in association with this pattern slips SE into Europe with winds veering further to Northerly at times through next weekend and the following week with disturbances running SE into the cold air enhancing the risk of more prolonged snowfall in places before things gradually turn quieter under a strong ridge of High pressure from off the Atlantic late in the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows in similar vein through the first week to 10 days before setting up a more coherent High pressure belt first across the UK and then to the North later with cold weather continuing if largely dry and frosty by then until a cold Northeast flow introduces snow showers to the East at the final frames of the run. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today don't support the evolutions of the operational or control much with a 50% group showing a less cold WNW flow around Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the Southwest. Of the rest only 10% show any extension of an Azores High towards Scandinavia and that too far South. UKMO UKMO this morning continues to illustrate a dip into cold and wintry conditions later in the week as from Wednesday the currently benign weather pattern turns into strong NW then North winds with snow showers peppering all exposed locations facing North and giving rise to frosts by night and the risk of more sustained snowfall as disturbances will no doubt pop up at short notice and move South within the flow. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts follow the tracks of the raw data well with most of the UK falling under sub 528 dam air from Wednesday with increasingly wintry showers affecting many following a cold front SE midweek Winds will be from the NW as Low pressure deepens to the NE and slips SE over Europe later in the week. GEM GEM today also shows a 4-5 day spell of cold and windy weather with wintry conditions under NW or north winds and snow showers in exposure. Later in the run the inevitable cut off ridge of High pressure crosses the UK and brings back cold zonality type conditions late in the run from the NW. NAVGEM NAVGEM today shows the shift to cold and windy conditions too after Wednesday with Low pressure close by over the North Sea bringing showers or longer spells of wintry precipiation in places especially thise with exposure to the North and NW. The end runs with cold North winds still blowing across the Uk at the start of next week with the Atlantic ridge weak and still some way to the West of the UK. ECM ECM this morning continues to look the best in terms of extended cold as it holds the ridge out across the Atlantic maintaining a cold feed of varying degrees of strength right out to the end of the run. This means that from Wednesday onward and well into next week the UK will see North winds and snow showers and some longer spells of wintry precipitaion almost anywhere at times as small Lows disrupt and move SE into the cold air across the UK. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The 10 Day Mean this morning supports the evolution that Low pressure will lie to the NE and East of the UK over Scandinavia and Europe as well as Greenland. Contrastingly High pressure is shown to most likely to be ridged between the Azores and Iceland keeping the UK under a cold feed from the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell is still unclear with various options both for a longer spells and not are shown this morning. MY THOUGHTS Most cold lovers should be quite pleased with this morning's output as one day on and the models still suggest a cold period commencing from wednesday across the UK. There is total cross model support that this evolution to cold NW then North winds will take place and it's only the longevity of the spell once in that is very fluid within the output at the moment. This is quite normal for models to play around with various evolutions to get us back into the defaurlt Westerly mode we in the UK are so used too. GFS is resolute in this resolve this morning which after 7-10 days bring back milder westerly winds under a flattening pattern, highlighted within it's clusters and mean pressure charts for that time. GEM is also looking like going a similar way while the highlights of the morning is once more the ECM model and the GFS control run. The former brings a couple of reloads as the ridge over the Atlantic is still shown to slowly builds towards Iceland and the NW locking the UK in cold weather out to Day 10 while GFS jostles around High pressure over the Atlantic and eventually delivers a cold NE flow to the UK at the end as pressure rises to the NE too. There is still a lot of 'if's' and 'buts' surrounding the longer term evolutions of week 2 but none surrounding the onset of the cold which is a given now for Wednesday and Thursday of this week. So sit back and enjoy the ride as the models continue to throw out differing evolutions on how long and how wintry the spell or snap will evolve but I wouldn't mind betting the newsprint will be latching onto this soon and for once there will be some locations in the North especially where this may for once be justified come next weekend.

I notice some folks looking a bit down with regard to insufficiently cold uppers shown at the moment. I suggest don't worry about that at this range. I can guarantee that with synoptics like those shown it will feel and be cold enough for snow for many. As I hinted at the end of my report above get the cold here first then worry about specifics nearer the time. I firmly believe that if all this fails then so be it but as it stands currently it does offer our best chance of a cold spell of note on a Northerly for several years.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY JANUARY 24TH 2015. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY JANUARY 25TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A chilly NW flow covers the UK before a weak ridge of High pressure and then a warm front moves East over the North and West of the UK later tonight and tomorrow MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times but some drier spells too. Less cold. Turning more generally unsettled and very cold again later with snow in places, especially over the North and East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow driving sharply South over Europe later next week and ridging North across mid Atlantic keeping the UK on the cold side of a Southeast moving flow to the SW of the UK by next weekend. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows a very changeable couple of weeks to come for all areas. Firstly a continuation of the see-saw pattern of one day mild and one day cold continues as successive fronts cross East bringing occasional rain and milder temperatures then colder and brighter days with showers in the NW. Then from midweek a more coherent spell of cold weather lasting some time slips down over all areas with cold windy conditions with NW or North winds and sleet and snow at times especially across the North and East. This then gives way to spells of cold zonality with further Low pressure moving SE for seveal days then East later with further wintry precipitation at times before the very end of the period sees less cold Westerly winds with rain at times. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run follows a similar pattern to the operational today and maintains a rather cold and unsettled pattern with a more generally milder but still unstable Westerly flow by the end of the period THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show the Azores High and a polar vortex to the North of the UK continuing to dominate the UK in both 10 and 14 days time. Many of the clusters at Day 14 show less cold and Westerly winds replacing the spell of cold weather under a more direct NW flow in 10 days time. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a belt of Low pressure to the North midweek mivng SE to develop a very deep trough over Europe and bathing the UK in ever colder NW and later North winds. Rain and strong winds would be swept away East and SE to bring in cold and wintry weather to many with sleet or snow showers for several days late in the week under a strong NW or North flow. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show an alternating pattern of rather cold and milder conditions as troughs pass over from the west before towards midweek more complex frontal systems cross the Uk from the West with colder air over the North Atlantic encroaching towards the UK. GEM GEM today also continues to show the deepening of a strong and cold WNW flow later next week and weekend as Low pressure slips SE across the North Sea and NW Europe with strong and cold NW or North winds and sleet or snow at times for many later in the period. NAVGEM NAVGEM today only differs in the positioning of the deep and cold pool of air late next week as it holds the cold and deep European trough further West and indeed over the UK itself later. While this could lessen the impacts of the cold North flow the others show the weather would still likely be cold with wintry showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow at times broght in on more variable winds from the West or North. ECM ECM this morning looks very wintry later next week as the deep Low complex having moved over Northern Europe becomes fairly slow moving and keeps the strong and very cold NNW flow over the UK with widepread spells of sleet and snow showers driven South in the flow making for some severe conditions at times especially over exposed Northern locations. ECM 10 DAY MEAN(12z) Using yesterdays 12z run the Northerly flow at Day 9 is shown to back more towards the NW on Day 10 as some members obviously indicate a toppling ridge scenario as we approach that time. The new 10 day mean was not avialable to me at time of publish. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for much colder and windy weather later next week and through next weekend. The longevity of the spell is still unclear with various options both for a longer spells and not are shown this morning. MY THOUGHTS One day on from the wintry charts of yesterday and the trend remains locked in place throughout this morning's output for all areas to experence a spell of very cold weather on a very strong Northerly flow next week as a deep trough resides over Europe. In the interim period fairly benign weather looks likely with High pressure to the SW continuing to steer relatively weak troughs East over the UK with alternating periods of mild and slightly cold weather with a litte rain and wintry showers at times to the NW. It's soon after midweek that Low pressure to the North makes it's move SE into Europe deepening markedly as it goes and driving the cold weather South to all areas by next weekend. Pressure looks like staying very low across the UK and although Southern England will likely see a lot of dry if very cold and windy weather all exposed locations facing North will see a lot of wintry showers of sleet and snow with some significant falls of snow in places givng rise to disruption in places. Also there would be evry chance of disturbances running South in the flow giving some more organised and potent areas of snow at times. Frosts would also likely be severe at night due to windchill. Then before I get carried away with all this talk of wintry weather we have to look further ahead and try and determine how long this show lasts. Well we have mixed messages this morning as GFS gradually slackens the trough over Europe and with the Atlantic High slipping back nearer to the Azores all their output puts the UK back in milder Westerlies by 14 days time. However, we have GEM, NAVGEM and particularly ECM who all look at least interested in maintaining cold and unstable air over the UK rather longer as High pressure over the Atlantic looks like holding firm at least for a time. I would though think that it would only be a matter of time before a ridge collapses across the UK and ends the spell unless we can pull the Atlantic ridge further North towards Greenland but I must add that some of the output goes some way towards addressing this today and wouldn't take much more of a shift to keep the UK in the freezer. Nevertheless, a very interesting spell of weather coming up with plenty of interest for coldies especially with no doubt some snowfall for many late next week. There is a while to go yet though before it can be classed as a definite to happen though with such good cross model support I think we can at least say a cold snap is on the way for sure. Details beyond that fact must be taken with a pinch of salt until nearer the time.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY JANUARY 23RD 2015. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY JANUARY 24TH 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A couple of cold fronts will move SE across the UK through today and tonight followed by a cold NW flow ahead of a ridge of High pressure tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times but some drier spells too. Less cold. Turning more generally unsettled and very cold again later with snow in places, especially over the North and East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow across the UK currently moving back South sharply over Europe in a weeks time setting up the UK and NW Europe very much on the cold side of the flow then positioned to the SW of the UK moving SE. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today shows progressively windier and changeable conditions as we move through next week. All areas will see spells of cold and bright conditions mixed with milder and cloudier spells with rain at times. Later in the week and more especially next weekend will see a more significant dip into strong and cold NW then North winds as Low pressure sinks South over Europe bringing wintry showers of sllet and snow to all areas for a time before at the very end of the period the winds steadily back West again renewing the changeable Westerly pattern of before. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is broadly similar to the operational in terms of sequence extending the cold period somewhat longer with perhaps more extensive snow or snow showers almost anywhere for a while before the milder Westerly winds resume late in the run with rain and windy weather at times. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show NW winds the likely position we find ourselves in both in 10 and 14 days time. The positioning of governing Low pressure driving this feed is crucial with many clusters supporting some very cold and wintry weather on a Northerly for a while mid term while the trend on the later period clusters support a less robust and milder West flow with some rain at times to end the period. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strengthening and increasingly chilly and unsettled WNW flow developing through next week with a fairly dry and chilly start of the week under a ridge being replaced by cloud, wind and rain midweek and colder conditions filtering down on a strong WNW flow later in the week with precipitation turning wintry in the North later. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of cold fronts moving East and SE across the UK around High pressure to the SW over the next 5 days with alternating spells of rain and milder air mixed with short periods of colder and clearer conditions with some wintry showers in the NW and frost at night in places. GEM GEM today also deepens the strong and cold WNW flow late next week and weekend as Low pressure slips SE across the North Sea and NW Europe with strong and cold NW or North winds and wintry weather for many late in the period. NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the theme too with 5 or so days of modest conditions with some rain and brighter colder periods before more generally cold and unsettled weather arrive for all from the North late next week and weekend with some wintry weather for some especially the North. ECM ECM this morning completes the set with a mix of alternating milder and chillier days through next week ahead of a dip into distinctly cold and wintry conditions powered by intense Low pressure over Europe feeding very cold NW and North winds and spells of snow showers or longer spells of snow later as further Low pressure feeds down into the cold air from the NW in 10 days time. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today endorses the main output in promoting cold North winds across the UK in 10 days time in association with Low pressure over Scandinavia and High pressure to the SW. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a strong trend today for at least a temporary track into very cold and unstable North or NW winds and some wintry weather for the UK in a week or so. MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning we have to look North for our next impending spell of cold weather interest as the period of benign weather of the next 5-6 days changes to something of much more interest late next week. There will be 5-6 days of alternating periods of mild and damp weather between colder and brighter spells when frost at night may occur. Then later next week all output shows a sharp deepening of the trough over Europe developing into it's most powerful state this Winter so far. The net result for the UK will be to enhance and strengthen a WNW then NW r North flow driving ever colder weather South next weekend to turn all precipitation to sleet and snow in deeply unstable air. The period then looks like remaining cold with winds veering to North for a time with considerable snowfall for the North and East in particular with no doubt sharp night frosts. Then we have to look further into the distance to see what happens thereafter. Some output bring this sharp burst of Winter to a close quite quickly as a ridge from the West crosses the UK and backs winds to a milder Westerly with rain and wind at times while others including ECM look like sustaining cold rather longer as further pulses of cold Low pressure slips SE into the cold air across the UK later enhancing the risk of more extensive sleet and snow at times. It also shows a stronger build of pressure then over the Atlantic, insufficient at present but trending the right way. So all in all it looks like the cold fraternity will have every reason to be happy with the output this morning as cold weather has complete support from all models to arrive from the North next weekend with just the duration of such a spell open to doubt at the moment. I await further model runs in the coming days with interest.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days UK Outlook for Tuesday 27 Jan 2015 to Thursday 5 Feb 2015: A cold but bright start to Tuesday with patchy frost in the east and southeast. Further to the north and west conditions will be cloudier with some rain ahead of a more active band of rain that moves southeastwards through Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday. This brings with it stronger winds, perhaps gales to the far northwest, and also milder temperatures. Drier conditions should then follow across the UK on Wednesday before we then move into a potentially very disturbed spell of weather with gales or severe gales in many places. Turning somewhat colder with an increasing risk of snow in the north. Temperatures will vary markedly day to day, and will be cold at times with overnight frosts. UK Outlook for Friday 6 Feb 2015 to Friday 20 Feb 2015: It looks most likely that unsettled conditions will continue across of the UK and that conditions in western parts will see slightly wetter than average conditions. The east is expected to see conditions closer to average for the time of year and be more likely to experience some dry and clearer spells. Temperatures are currently expected to be near normal in the most-part, but will perhaps we slightly colder in parts of the north and west. However, some colder spells are still possible at times accompanied by night-time frosts and also a wintry mix of rain, sleet and snow Cold zonality reigns supreme from UKMO today.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY JANUARY 22ND 2015. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY JANUARY 23RD 2015 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An area of slack winds will be maintained across the UK today followed by a trough of Low pressure moving in from the west tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times but some drier spells too. Less cold. Possibly turning more generally unsettled and colder again later with some snow in places, especially over the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Forecast shows the trough in the flow over Europe receding East and then settling into a West to East motion across the UK with occasional tilts slightly North of West over the South of the UK on it's way to Europe later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational today continues to show the UK under the influence of West or NW winds around a strong Azores Anticyclone and deep Low pressure areas moving East and SE to the North and East of the UK. Things change little over the course of the run this morning with all areas seeing spells of rain on successive cold fronts passing over and followed by colder NW winds and wintry showers most prevalent towards the North and East of the UK especially later in the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run mirrors the operational run well with strong confidence in West or NW winds dominant across the UK over the enxt couple of weeks. Temperatures will fluctuate day to day but it will never be desparately cold with wintry showers between the rain bands restricted to the North. At the end of the run the model deepens the unsettled weather over the UK with all areas seeing strng winds and rain and more coherent colder weather filtering into the North later. THE GFS CLUSTERS The GFS Clusters today show very mixed messages none of which show any particularly cold evolution for the UK. We have a 30% each spread in Low pressure to the North and a strong Westerly flow likely to a High pressure cell to the East and a Southerly flow across the UK with coldest conditions in the continental flow over Eastern Britain to Westerly winds with High pressure close to the South which would mean mild weather for all. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure close to the South and SW at the start of next week with further weak cold fronts crossing East across the UK with some rain chiefly over the North followed by fresher weather with patchy night frosts and bright days. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of fronts moving East and SE across the UK over the next 5 days with alternating spells of rain and milder air mixed with short periods of colder and clearer conditions with some wintry showers in the NW and frost at night in places. GEM GEM today shows a spell of west and NW winds strengthening later around a large Azores anticyclone and strengthening Low pressure areas moving East and SE across the North Sea and NW Europe later. Spells of rain followed by clearer and colder conditions will continue across the UK throughout the period with the depth of the cold periods increasing later with more frequent incidences of wintry showers for may later next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM also keeps the same trend and pattern as West or NW winds carry spells of rain followed by colder and clearer conditions with wintry showers in the NW. As with GEM the colder NW winds become more coherent for the rest of Britain instead of just the NW later next week with wintry showers between further rain bands extending to all areas. ECM ECM this morning continues yeaterdays theme of West and NW winds around a High pressure area persistent to the SW of the UK. Southern and Western areas will maintain the driest and mildest weather with the colder air between successive cold fronts coldest over the North and NE where some wintry showers ccur at times. As of yesterday the run indicates a passage into much colder weather for all in a more direct Northerly feed late in the run with wintry showers of sleet and snow for all for a time but it looks like the Azores High will once more send a toppling ridge across the UK with milder westerly winds returning soon after Day 10. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today continues it's promotion of cold NW winds around Low pressure over Scandinavia in 10 days time with wintry showers and rather cold weather most likely across the UK though it never looks like becoming desperately cold. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today is for the models to of slightly watered down the return to cold North or NW winds later mostly due to the strength of the Azores High. MY THOUGHTS It appears that the spell of somewhat less cold conditions alternating between cloudy conditions with some rain and brighter and fresher conditions with some sunshine looks set to be dominat across the UK for some considerable time to come. There is still indications that a more coherent dip into rather cold NW or even North winds later for all areas as Low pressure sinks South over Europe and veering winds as a result so that most places could see some sleet or snow showers later. However, the problem continues to lie out to the SW where the Azores High continues to have one of it's strongest strangleholds on UK conditions in Winter I have seen for years. This coupled with a persistent strong vortex up to the NW of the UK shortens the duration of any cold interventions we have from the North and despite the cold look of some of the synoptics in 10 days time particularly from ECM it looks very transitory as the Azores High fails to ridge sufficiently North over the Atlantic and the inevitable toppling of a ridge from it cuts off the Northerly feed to bring milder westerly winds back fairly quickly. GFS doesn't offer much in the way of hope for cold in it's clusters this morning all showing variations of fairly mild options unless the clump showing High pressure East of the UK moves on later to provide something more fruitful. However, all the above is decribed as just one run in a very fluid situation longer term but one thing is for sure in that unless the Azores High moves or weakens then any excursion into cold weather will be short and less sharp across the UK.