Gibby

The 6z GFS op shows an intense displaced Azores High just off SW Britain at the end of it's run supported by a strong and flat Jet stream much too far North to nudge it away and it is an increasing and worrying trend for the start of Winter because such synoptics can prove stubborn to shift once formed and and can also become a repetitive pattern as past Winters can testify too It is at least shown very early in the winter and is way out in la la land at the moment. Let's hope it is removed in subsequent runs.

Brighter than I expected thus far with some sun poking through the mist and Stratocumulus. 5.9C currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Brighter than I expected thus far with some sun poking through the mist and Stratocumulus. 5.9C currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strengthening SE airflow will develop across the British Isles later, today, tonight and through tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow simplifying but fairly strong in a flatter pattern across the far North of the British Isles through the latter stages of next week before slowly migrating South towards Southern England later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows that High pressure will soon become the dominating factor over the British Isles following the passage of a cold front SE early next week. It's centre is shown to lie across Southern Britain innitially before weak cold fronts attack it from the NW on occasion only for it to rebuild in situ over the UK once any front has passed maintaining the dry weather with variable cloud and only very occasional rainfall and periods of mist and fog and local frost issues intermittently over the whole period. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run keeps High pressure just that little bit further towards the SW and this allows some troughs SE across the UK at times with some rain at times chiefly in the North. On each passage of fronts a slice of colder clearer air will likely deliver frost and fog night and morning in places before the skies gradually infill with cloud off the North atlantic ahead of the next front. Late in the run the High slip further South allowing a more pronounced dig of unsettled and at times colder weather across all areas with some rain and snow on Northern hills. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows High pressure being the dominating factor across the UK. It's centre over the South next week gives rise to frost and fog issues and rather cold conditions as a result for a time. Later in the run as the prallel run the High shifts further to the South and allows a charge of more unstable and Low pressure from the NW to bring rain for all and as this clears to the SE later winds switch NE with cold and grey skies with rain, sleet and snow in SE areas with drier and clearer weather in the NW. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles show that the most likely scenario is for a pattern towards Low pressure to the North of the UK and High pressure near the Azores is the most likely place we arrive at in two weeks from now with rain at times for all in average temperatures. In the short term High pressure close to southern Britain next week will keep things dry and chilly here with night and morning mist, fog and frost issues. UKMO UKMO today shows a trough of Low pressure moving away East early next week having introduced cold and cleaner air to all of the UK with frost by night. As High pressure then moves in over Southern Britain midweek fog will also become an issue in the South while the North becomes rather cloudy but largely dry and less chilly as winds freshen from the WSW. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support the models raw data well this morning with a freshening SE flow in a day or two gradually backing Easterly and dying down over the weekend. Complex troughs will gradually decay and move away from the UK for a time before occluded fronts move in from the West late on the 5th day. GEM GEM this morning also shows High pressure developing to the SW next week replacing the slack weather pattern of the weekend with a light North or NW flow following a trough East. This will bring a day or two of cleaner air with patchy frost and fog at night. Cloud will roll around the top of the High by midweek extinguishing the frost and fog issues and as the High then relocates to an intense feature in the mid Atlantic the door is open for cold weather to arrive on Northerly winds for all with wintry showers in the North and East together with frost at night for many. NAVGEM NAVGEM prefers to keep a ridge across the UK from the High over Eastern Europe in a weeks time with dry and benign conditions for all with frost and fog patches in places, slow to clear in the light winds. ECM ECM this morning maintains the theme developed yesterday in that High pressure to the SW of the UK looks the driving force from next week. There will be a period of chilly and frosty weather early next week especially over the South as the High drifts over Southern Britain for a time following an early week cold front. From the charts late in the period a rinse and repeat pattern looks likely in the days that follow with another cold front introducing another pulse of chillier and cleaner air with patchy frost and fog in the South following a cloudier and milder interlude for all with a little rain. THE ECM ENSEMBLES A slightly more encouraging 10 Day ensemble chart this morning shows High pressure further out onto the Atlantic towards the Azores with a ridge to the UK moving SE ahead of a Westerly flow. With a Jet flow sinking South synopticsjust to the East of the UK conditions look encouraging for an impending Northerly flow a few days on. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period. MY THOUGHTS The models continue to theme around High pressure to lie close to the SW of the UK through the period. This makes predicting day to day and place to place conditions at this time of year very difficult but I would have to base the theme as a fairly dry outlook with only small amounts of rain at times as weakening cold fronts make their way SE at times. What is far more difficult to predict is how much cloud is trapped within the High's circulation which can of course have major implications of amounts of fog and frost that occur and how once formed this clears each day as this can have a massive impact on daytime and nightime temperatures. These details cannot be predicted at this stage as the positioning of the High will help dictate this come the time. Basically if it makes landfall across the South which is shown by some output then frost and fog could be widespread and persistent but if it is held to the South and SW as some other output shows then cloud spilling arond the North of the High along with more in the way of a Westerly breeze will keep things milder and benign for many. Then we move on to where we go later in the run with the majority showing some degradation of the High both away from the UK and also to the West which in theory opens the door to cold air from the North of the UK to advance South and perhaps give the chance of some snow for some in the North and East later. With a predicted slow shift South of the Jet flow over Europe in Week 2 this becomes a distinct possibility and is becoming the UK's best shot at cold in the near future so lets see if it develops and gains cross model support in the next few days. In the meantine we must settle down to a period of benign and quiet conditions weatherwise with chasing cloud cover along with frost and fog patches and the odd patch of rain the most exciting it gets over the next 10 days or so I'm afraid.

While I admire the enthusiam and anticipation of what could be from charts over 180hrs the overwhelming trend is highlighted well by the GFS 6z run. The Jet Stream is poorly aligned for deep cold to arrive over the UK from next week in anything more than a glancing and shortlived blow from a brief Northerly before the expected large High to the SW which has thwarted many a Winter's hopes in the past rebuilds and topples across the UK to bring back less cold WSW winds to the UK and NW Europe as a whole. I hope I'm proved wrong but that is how I see it from current thinking I'm afraid. It is of course feasible that the High could well be UK based for a time with attendant frost and fog issues but with a Jet flow riding over the top of it's centre the overwhelming odds would favour pushing it South or SW.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 27TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack pressure area across the UK will slowly give way to a freshening SE flow tomorrow and Friday MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow gradually strengthening over the Atlantic over the next week and crossing on a more direct West to East motion in the vicinity of the UK thereafter. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows disrupting Low pressure to the West of the UK by the weekend with a ridge from High pressure both to the East and to the West of the UK lying across Britain for the latter part of the weekend. Then the High to the West becomes the dominant feature moving into Southern Britain at times and lying just to the SW at others. A strong Westerly flow will lie across the North then with cloud and occasional rain in relatively milder air. The South close to the High pressure will see lighter winds and patchy frost and fog where clearer skies prevail. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is in unison with the operational in the first half of the period with the Atlantic High held slightly more out over the Ocean meaning once a few nights of chilly and potentially frosty conditions early next week a West or NW wind would bring rather cloudy winds for all with benign weather types developing when temperatures remain near average or perhaps a little above. A little rain is likely across the North from fronts passing by to the North whereas elsewhere would be mostly dry. Frost and fog would be limited in this arrangement as the UK would be covered in a lot of shallow cloud. the end of the run illustrates an attack from the North with colder and frosty weather likely should it evolve. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also follows the same basic pattern with High pressure to the SW of the UK looking the most likely option with time bringing rather cloudy and benign weather to all regions in temperatures generally settling close to normal after a few cold days early next week under a brief Northerly. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles this morning show the most favoured point likely to be held in two weeks from now is the UK to be locked in a trough from Low pressure close to or over the North of the UK with the Jet flow quite well South with unsettled and at times chilly weather with rain at times and snow over Northern hills, though this brought about on a mostly Westerly flow. UKMO UKMO today shows a finger of High pressure lying across Central Britain at the weekend and start of next week. A large High is developing in the Atlantic with abroad Westerly flow across the North and a slacker easterly breeze over the far South. Many areas would become dry but probably rather cloudy with patchy frost and fog away from the windier North and far South. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support the models raw data well this morning with a freshening SE flow in a day or two gradually backing Easterly and dying down over the weekend. Complex troughs will gradually decay and move away from the UK as pressure rises later. GEM GEM this morning also shows High pressure dveloping over the Atlantic next week, although it is further away from the UK which opens the door to the North on this run with a shift towords cold North winds and a temporary burst of wintry showers and overnight frosts towards the end of next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM today maintains a ridge across the UK throughout this morning's run once the keen SE flow at the start of the weekend subsides. Dry weather would prevail for many with some frost and fog patches at times in locations where skies clear by night. ECM ECM this morning develops High pressure in from the West too next week and with the centre lying over the UK for a time the lack of a West flow rounding the North of the High is less influential giving all areas mist, fog and frost in abundance. Late in the run a small but vigorous Low to the SW does the UK a favour by preventing the High from collapsing South and allowing it to strengthen North through the Atlantic by Day 10 which would feed a brief cold Northerly down across the UK just outside the term of the run as Low pressure exits East away from the Northern Isles. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows strong support for much of the UK to be under quiet and anticyclonic conditions in 10 days time with much of the UK likely to have surface air pressure values in excess of 1020mbs. The centre of High pressure will be of paramount of importance as to what conditions will be experienced in any one place at the surface in terms of frost and fog amounts. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a strong trend this morning for the UK to become under the influence of High pressure from the Atlantic in one shape or form from next week. MY THOUGHTS The models seem to be settling down in terms of agreement in that the UK is likely to become influenced by High pressure originating from the Atlantic next week. What is not in agreement is where that High pressure will eventually lie and it is this that will become important in ascertaining day to day conditions in any one place. The one constant is that there will be a lot of dry weather over the UK with only brief flirtations with fairly weak troughs giving a little rain at times chiefly to the North. Apart from that there is little agreed consensus on the resting place for the High with some output including ECM bringing the High across the UK meaning clear and cold conditions would develop with extensive frost and fog issues, slow to clear by day. There is also support for the High to lie or become close to SW Britain bringing an ever cloudy and benign WNW flow over the UK which means the air would infill with shallow cloud off the Atlantic and bring days of anticyclonic gloom but temperatures close to average with small diurnal variations. As usual the longer term models toys with bringing the occasional blast of chill down from the North later as the High relaxes and rebuilds North over the Atlantic but from past experience this just means a reset pattern once the following ridge topples over. The main hindrance of this High should it evolve as shown the Jet stream will be riding East to the North of the UK which will have the effect of suppressing the High South or SW and this theory has acquired some support from the ECM Ensemble 10 Day chart just released so I have to favour the least desirable option of it likely to be lying close to SW Britain with time and ensuring that no real notable weather of any kind affects the UK. There is of course a lot of water to pass under the bridge before the resting place of the Atlantic High is finally nailed as the block to the East has to subside cleanly first and the disrupted Low pressure down over Iberia in the short term behaves as anticipated currently. As a result I anticipate more shifts in forecast for the period of next week onward over the coming model runs as the synoptic pressure pattern changes.

A cold start to the day with overnight frost melting under the now cloudy skies. Still just about dry and temperatures of 0.8C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

A cold start to the day with overnight frost melting under the now cloudy skies. Still just about dry and temperatures of 0.8C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A wave depression is forming over the English Channel, moving NNE through the next 24 hours towards the North Sea later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally changeable conditions look likely across the UK though the emhasis should be on more dry weather than wet with temperatures close to average though below where any mist, fog or frost patches develop later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow remaining weak around the UK and Europe for the remainder of the week. The trend thereafter remains for it to increase and push further East over the Atlantic, UK and Northern Europe in the second half of the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows disrupting Low pressure to the West of the UK by the weekend following the slack and Low pressure across the UK over the next few days. This disrupting Low pressure then is split into a cut off Low over Iberia while another portion moves harmlessly away to the North allowing a ridge of High pressure to reform over the UK from the European High pressure block at the weekend. Later in the period High pressure remains the driving force of the weather over the UK gradually forming a centre either over or close to the UK with some cold and frosty conditions likely to develop for many as a result with patchy fog problems too. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is in unison with the operational in the first half of the period before High pressure develops more towards the SW allowing the Jet flow to override and collapse the European High pressure. This then makes for a milder WSW flow across Northern areas extending South at times with some rain at times, more especially across the North. Later in the run a deep Low diving SE over the North Sea introduces a plunge of cold Polar air across the UK with keen North winds and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in below average temperatures to end the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run this morning closer resembles the Parallel run in sequence with a slow transition towards the High to the East giving way to more control towards High pressure close to Southern England. This of course as indicated before allows the Jet flow to cross East into Europe at higher latitudes and allows temperatures to rise on a WSW flow across the UK with rain at times in the north. It is supportive thugh of some form off attack from the North, albeit temporary on this run late in the period with some rain and snow in placesfor a time. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles this morning show the most favoured point likely to be held in two weeks from now is the UK to be locked in a trough from Low pressure close to or over the North of the UK with the Jet flow quite well South with unsettled and at times chilly weather with rain at times and snow over Northern hills, though this brought about on a mostly Westerly flow. UKMO UKMO today shows a strong ridge of High pressure across Eastern Europe, all the way West through the British Isles and with a new centre well out in mid Atlantic at Day 6. Low pressure lies across Spain and over a point North of Iceland. The resultant quiet weather with West winds in the far North and East ones in the far South will leave most of the UK benign with some bright spells along with mist, fog and frost patches developing again with time. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a developing Low pressure over the English Channel over the next 24 hours with a complex array of troughs across the South and East gradually transferring NE in the wake of a strengthening SE flow later in the week as a deep Low complex develops near Spain. pressure is then shown to rise across the UK as a ridge develops across the UK from Europe. GEM GEM this morning also shows the theme of disrupting Low pressure slipping down over our western Sea areas and arriving over Spain. This sets up an Easterly flow over the South of Britain while a ridge from Europe and later the Atlantic disects te UK with a slacker west flow over the far north. Towards the end of the run pressure falls from both the SE and NW with a complex Low pressure area bringing rain and rather chilly conditions to many before the end of the period in slack cyclonic winds then. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more marked push of Atlantic weather East across Northern Europe next week as the High over Eastern Europe collapses and allows a displaced Azores High to lie just to the SW of the UK then to become the dominant player in UK conditions with strong Westerly winds with rain at times across the North while the South sees some more lengthy drier periods between very occasional and lighter rain events in average temperatures for all. ECM ECM this morning also shows a cut off Low feature over Spain at the weekend while the UK lies in centre ground to a ridge from an European High to another one over the Atlantic. On this run there is strong support for the Atlantic High to eventually form a UK based feature with all the attendant Winter issues of fog and frost, widespread, persistent and dense likely to develop across Britain as a result later in the period. This would make conditions very cold locally. Before this develops though a band of cloud and rain from the North is shown to move down over the North and East of the UK towards the middle of next week. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows strong support for much of the UK to be under quiet and anticyclonic conditions in 10 days time with much of the UK likely to have surface air pressure values in excess of 1020mbs. The centre of High pressure will be of paramount of importance as to what conditions will be experienced in any one place at the surface in terms of frost and fog amounts. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still an element of indecision between the models of developments beyond this weekend though the overall general trend is for High pressure is one shape or form to be the overriding factor close to the UK later in the period. MY THOUGHTS The pattern this morning remains a very complex one with many factors coming into play over and around the UK which could all shape our weather very differently over the period if one factor overpowered another. As it is the models do vary considerably in detail once we leave this weekend which looks like being benign under a ridge from the East. The general belief next week is that there will be a gentle shift towards a new High from the Atlantic playing a more dominat role in the UK weather over the remainder of the period. The positioning of this will be instrumental in the weather type at the surface with differences in opinion on this shown across the models this morning. If the High makes landfall over Britain which is shown by a number of runs then the net result will be quiet and fine weather for the UK but it could well become cold and foggy with frost widespread. This could be reluctant to shift through the day in the light winds. If, however the High is held to the South as is shown by some other output then the Jet flow will overide the system and flatten the pattern to make for mild Atlantic winds to affect the UK with rain at times chiefly in the North. There is also some opinion that the High could move East of the UK and allow Low pressure to slip South over or to the East of the UK later bringing a plunge of colder polar air down from the North for a time late in the period. It really is a case of you pays your money and takes your choice on which theory if any proves correct come the time. It does look increasingly unlikely now that unless the current High pressure over Eastern Europe can gain assistance from a new High pressure centre elsewhere the block over Eastern Europe will probably not deliver anything cold to the UK this time but with plenty of High pressure floating around at our latitude over the next few weeks there is always a chance that these could be drawn to a position more favourable for bringing cold weather to the UK sooner or later albeit home grown anticyclonic cold or from a cold source either from the North or East. As I hinted at yesterday the pattern is far from set at the moment and there remains plenty of interest hemispherically to induce or maintain interest for coldies with I anticipate a cold period likely at some point over the next three to four weeks looking quite likely for the UK perhaps with some snow though that word 'patience' is going to have to take frontstage.

First major air frost of the season with -3C achieved earlier. Bright and crisp currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

First major air frost of the season with -3C achieved earlier. Bright and crisp currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 24TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure over the UK currently will become weaker as a warm front moves North over the English Channel tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally uncertain conditions seem likely with the East vs West battle lines drawn. Some rain at times for all but a fair amount of dry and benign conditions too. While not warm it won't be especially cold either. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the weak flow around the UK at present persissting until later in the week when the flow strengthens across the UK with the flow moving South late in the period to a point South of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure to the East and later NE continuing to dictate the UK weather pattern. Disrupting Low pressure to the West of the UK later this week allows a strengthening Jet flow to ride over the Northern flank of High pressure over Europe around a week from now with a period of windier and wetter weather as a result before new High pressure builds across the UK towards Scandinavia later and brings a return to dry and cold weather briefly to the North and East while the South and West become under the influence of Low pressure moving SE to the SW of the UK with strong and chilly SE winds and rainfall as a result. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run also keeps High pressure to the East and NE well incontrol of the weather around the UK throughout it's morning run. The South of the UK in particular remains under threat of Low pressure at times either feeding up from the South or down from the NW with some rain at times here. Towards the very end of the run High pressure transfers to mid Atlantic and with an Azores Low pressure then a cold North flow for the UK could be just around the corner from the term of the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS Ensembles take the operational run's route through Week 1 before a High pressure build across the UK based from the Atlantic crosses further NE later to Scandinavia at the same time as deepening Low pressure moves across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. Colder air having moved West from Europe then is shown to engage with milder Atlantic air near Southern Britain to form an intense Low complex over Southern Britain and Northern France late in the run with gales and heavy rain the result and with moderately cold air close by sleet or snow could result in places THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles end this morning with the UK lying in a trough stretching from an Atlantic Low South of Greenland and down towards the Meditteranean indicting little overall change from the current pattern. UKMO UKMO today shows a complex syoptic pattern late next week as High pressure to the East remains resilient and possibly realigns itself further North at the end of the run. Disrupted Low pressure to the West late in the week fails to cross the UK with rain held out to the West before a new ridge of High pressure next weekend keeps things dry if rather cloudy with some fog and frost patches in the South especially should skies clear overnight. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show High pressure out to the East holding up the natural West to East progression of troughs and Low pressure across the UK. Instead we lie in nomansland with decaying fronts either to the West or over the UK decaying in situ as winds slowly warm and freshen from a Southerly quarter later in the week. GEM GEM this morning likes the idea of the disrupted Low pressure system to the West of the UK later this week developing it into a cut off Low to the South at the weekend. At the same time a UK ridge slips South in response to an increased Jet flow crossing the North Atlantic and into Northern Europe gradually strengthening a mild SW flow later with occasional rain spreading progressively South and East across the UK with time early next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a complex synoptic structure across the UK next weekend between High pressure to the East and SW and Low pressure up to the NW and SE with no one system having overall control. The resultant surface conditions would be variable as a result with all areas at risk of some rain but drier spells too in average temperatures overall. ECM ECM this morning also shows a cut off Low feature over Spain at the weekend while the UK in centre ground to a ridge from an European High to another one over the Atlantic. Fairly quiet if rather cloudy conditions are likely as a result with patchy fog an frost at night possible. Then through next week the Spanish Low moves North and High pressure to the West ridges across to Scandinavia strengthening an Easterly flow across the UK. Though chilly no real cold air is available to tap into at this stage so with thick cloud for many and a strong breeze it will feel chilly and uninspiring with rain at times for many especially towards the East and South. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows Low pressure still close to Southern Greenland all the way down to the Meditteranean Sea with High pressure based over Eastern Europe and Scandinavia. The UK lies in nomansland with indeterminate conditions but not especially cold. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is steadily returning to High pressure remaining the driving force to UK weather over the period with the positioning of such instrumental in determining air source and weather type which is currently variable between the models today. MY THOUGHTS A day off from the models yesterday has done nothing to alleviate the pattern that we are at currently and may stick with for some time to come. The main focus of attention is still the persistence and strength of the High block over Europe warding off attacks of Low pressure from the West and sending a cut off Low down to Iberia later in the week. This leads the UK in a slack ridge both from the High to the East and a new one out in the Atlantic. It's the movement of this one which could prove interesting as some output take it through Scotland to Scandinavia and sets up an Easterly flow over the UK. With pressure forced towards the South and SW of the UK because of this pattern would normally introduce a real risk of heavy snowfall and very cold weather being that we are now entering December soon. However, with a few exceptions due to the orientation of High pressure over Russia very little deep cold lies over Europe at the moment and as a result just chilly weather with rain is still the more likely option rather than snow. There are some exceptions to this general rule of thumb though and these in themselves have increased in number over the last few days. No one can doubt that the synoptic pattern is fascinating at the moment and it is a mile away from the pattern of last Winter with this early season standoff between East vs West very marked albeit and although meaning nothing to the UK currently in weather terms I believe that as the season deepens it is only a matter of time before things become better orientated to bring the UK at least a shot of cold weather soon. I think there is one word which is going to have to be adhered too though while all this drama unfolds and that is 'patience' but at least we have a whole Winter season in front of us still so with the synoptics as they are I feel we couldn't be better placed.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22ND 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY NOVEMBER 23RD 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slow moving front across the SE of the UK will ebb and flow NW and back SE over the next 24-48hrs. Pressure becomes High over Northern Britain in light winds. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable later next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving in from the West. Temperatures near or a little above average at times later, especially across the South where a few drier spells are possible too. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the weak flow around the UK at present persissting until later in the week when the flow strengthens close to Southern Britain moving further North across the UK later. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows the slack conditions across the UK continue with a front close to the South with rain clearing by Monday, Then after a few quiet and chilly days a strengthening Southerly wind will bring more rain across from the West later in the week. This then marks a trend to mild SW winds and an alternating pattern of bands of rain follwed by showers under a mobile Atlantic regime developing for all through week 2. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar to the operational model in theory and sequence and trend towards a mild and more mobile SW flow with High pressure to the South and Low to the North from the end of next week. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles also are broadly in line with the above account of proceedings over the coming two weeks with the caveat that this run shows a slightly longer period of disrupting Low pressure sliding SE across the UK into Europe later next week before it then develops the milder and more mobile SW flow the others indicate. UKMO UKMO today shows very benign conditions giving way to freshening Southerly winds and rain in from the West later this week as Low pressure slips SE to the West of the UK following the quieter and chillier couple of days early in the week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show the UK very much in nomansland over the later part of this coming week with troughs mostly slow moving and instrumental around the UK with rain at times in stagnant air. GEM GEM this morning too shows a much more mobile pattern developing across the UK in it's latter stages following the quieter and chillier feel to things over the coming 4-5 days though still with rain at times. Winds strengthen from the SW or West later with gales at times around deep Low pressure crossing east over or to the North of the UK delivering temperatures well up near the average for early December. NAVGEM NAVGEM follows the pack in showing a similar slow transition from the slow moving weather pattern currently with one much more mobile as Low pressure winds up to the North of the UK with strong West or SW winds delivering spells of rain and showers at times in mild conditions overall. ECM ECM this morning delivers closer to what I feared yesterday in that a gradual transition to mild West or SW winds around a High pressure belt from Eastern Europe to the Azores develops later as the Jet stream moves North and sets up a pattern that would bring the wetter conditions towards the North and West while all areas see temperatures harmlessly in the average or even mild category at times. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows a familiar pattern of Low to the NW and High to the SW and far East on this morning's run with a mild South or SW flow affecting the UK with frontal troughs close by especially towards the North and West with rain at times as a result. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend still is relatively one of Atlantic Low pressure gradually taking control of the weather with an increasing indication across most output that the Azores High could become more influential towards Southern Britain later. MY THOUGHTS Scouring the charts this morning to find anything remotely wintry is becoming increasingly difficult as the Atlantic looks like becoming the dominating feature of the weather over the UK once the period of slack and benign pattern over the UK in the next 4-5 days gives way. All models show pressure falling from the NW and some disrupting troughs affecting principally the West of the UK will gradually extnd over to all areas later next week as the Atlantic winds up. Thereafter, it looks like winds will increase markedly across the UK from the West or SW, pressure will rise closer to the South at times and all areas see troughs crossing quickly East from deep Low pressures running East over or to the North of the UK. Fast moving bands of rain and showers look likely for most through Week 2 with some drier spells developing across the South at times. There seems little hope of anything that would suggest anything cold and wintry affecting the UK this side of mid December I'm afraid as the building blocks that are needed to deliver cold to the UK look like receding rather than developing around and over the UK over the period.

Remarkably mild this morning at 13C with only light winds and the rain area further East than feared keeping a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather across the area for much of the day. Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Remarkably mild this morning at 13C with only light winds and the rain area further East than feared keeping a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather across the area for much of the day. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A grey and overcast start with some light rain falling. Currently feeling chilly at 6.9C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

A grey and overcast start with some light rain falling. Currently feeling chilly at 6.9C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 22ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A complex series of troughs will move slowly NE across the UK today and become slow moving near to SE Britain from tomorrow morning with wave disturbances running North along it at times over the weekend. Pressure rises strongly across the North from tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving down from the NW. Temperatures near or a little below average. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the disrupted flow to the West of the UK continuing over the next week with something of a split flow over Europe-one arm high over the Arctic and another one well South over the Med or North Africa. The pattern simplifies in Week 2 as the pattern flattens and a strong flow crosses the Atlantic and Southern Britain later in the period. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows asteady trend towards a more unsettled spell as Low pressure develops and moves down from the NW later next week. There will be spells of rain and showers as a result in temperatures close to or slightly below the seasonal average in increasingly blustery winds. Through Week 2 the winds remain strong and from the West with further spells of rain with temperatures recovering to average or somewhat above in the South as the pattern flattens to a more traditional West to East flow of Low ressure to the North of the UK. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is basically similar in trend and sequence of events with the unsettled and breezy weather revolving around deepening Low pressure over the UK later next week gradually simplifying as pressure rises from the South with Low pressure then to the North carrying wind and rain to more especially Northern areas later while the South sees longer drier phases when temperatures will reach and exceed normal values at times. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles agree with the first half of the partner runs in as much as deep Low pressure develops close to Southern Britain later next week with much wind and rain for all as a result. It then diverges away from the operational and parallel runs in as much as it maintains deep Low pressure sweeping East over the UK rather than to the North with potentially quite stormy conditions at times in periods of rain and showers and temperatures close to average overall. UKMO UKMO today shows very benign conditions under a slack pressure area from Days 4 to 6 with variable conditions as a result with a mix of sunshine, mist, fog, frost and a little rain all possible with a little sunshine too for the lucky few. Conditions do look like deteriorating from the NW soon after close of the run. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a complex pressure pattern under basically High pressure over the weekend and start to the new week. Complex frontal activity will prevail near the SE of the UK for the next 72 hours and again by 120hours as well as new versions approaching from the West at the end of the Fax period. GEM GEM this morning shows the UK remaining the battleground between a block of High pressure over Europe and repetitive Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic and disrupting SE while filling over the UK. This means that after a quiet period early next week more wind and rain is likely thereafter in temperatures close to average but feeling chilly in blustery winds at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows the theme of Low pressure developing and sliding down towards the UK from the NW later next week with rain and wind increasing in intensity and extent with time in blustery winds too but average temperatures overall. ECM ECM this morning remains in the habit of being somewhat different to the majority, this morning making rather less of the disrupted Low pressure pattern of later next week before pulling Low pressure further towards a position North of the UK and subsequently taking a lot of it's rain with it while the majority of the UK remain bathed in a relatively mild and Westerly pattern. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run continues to show a deep trough lying from Southern Greenland through the West of the UK to the Meditteranean with cyclonic South or SW winds across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all likely in average tmperatures overall. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend still is relatively one of Atlantic Low pressure gradually taking control of the weather with some disagreement on the positioning and resulting surface conditions in what remains a largely wintry free run. MY THOUGHTS The output remains very mixed in detail between the models but the general message from them all is similar in that all areas are going to see rain at times across the period. For a time with Low pressure predicted to lie close to or indeed over the UK later next week some very wet weather is likely in places with winds occasionally strong but variable in direction. At this time temperatures may be held back close to or a little below average at times. Thereafter the general trend with exceptions is for Low pressure and the Jet Stream to move North and flatten. There is some evidence that Low pressure will go far enough North in Week 2 to bring drier air across Southern areas from High pressure developing to the South which of course means mild Westerly winds as a result. However there remains enough support too for very unsettled and windy and at times wet weather to persist for all under deep Low pressure lying close to the UK. The High pressure block to the East remains in situ but has shifted away from supplying too much influence to the UK later as the barrage of Atlantic Low pressure overrides it and displaces any chance of cold from a Continental source reaching the UK on this occasion. A more worrying trend is the rise of pressure to the South which is shown on several outputs this morning which coupled with High pressure over Eastern Europe could form an unwelcome Euro High block to the SE of the UK with a mobile Atlantic setup developing delivering most wind and rain to the North and West later. Once this pattern has formed it can prove stubborn to shift and delay a shift towards a more seasonal pattern while maintaining the string of warmer than average months that have occurred this year. However, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before we reach that stage and we still have the ECM Ensemble data this morning showing more support for a more entrenched and deep UK trough keeping things volatile and unsettled for all.

Not a bad start to the day here and despite the prospect of days of cloudy weather forecast for much of this week we have had a reasonable amount of sunshine at times and this morning despite a generally cloudy forecast loks brighter than expected. Currently 6.9C (the minimum all night). Full Data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Not a bad start to the day here and despite the prospect of days of cloudy weather forecast for much of this week we have had a reasonable amount of sunshine at times and this morning despite a generally cloudy forecast loks brighter than expected. Currently 6.9C (the minimum all night). Full Data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 21ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack airflow over the UK will strengthen somewhat as troughs of Low pressure move up from the SW later today, tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving down from the NW. Temperatures near or a little below average. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the split in flow currently running East both to the North and South of the UK becoming ill defined and slack for a period early next week before it strengthens markedly close to Southern Britain later next week while maintaining it's tendency to divert both North and South around the mainland of Europe as the High pressure block over Eastern Europe persists. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a trend towards deep Low pressure gradually moving SE over the UK later next week setting up a spell of wet and very windy weather for all areas. Temperatures would be average at best and it will feel cold in the rain and wind. Later in the run the weather settles down somewhat as the Eastern European High makes a comeback in the form of a ridge stretching West across the UK from Scandinavia bringing cold and drier weather with some frost and patchy fog in the Easterly drift. Weak troughs coming up against the block could give a little rain at times still chiefly in the far West which may fall as snow over Northern high elevations. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar to the operational this morning through the first two thirds of the run but it brings an even colder Easterly flow for a short while later with a better orientated ridge from Scandinavia allowing East winds and wintry showers near the East coast before the power of the Atlantic ratchets up a major storm cell to the NW at the end with Westerly gales and spells of rain affecting all areas before the end of the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES Putting all the GFS members together the ensembles are in unity over bringing the deep Low pressure down across the UK later next week with all it's attendant wind and rain. However, the majority of members want nothing of an attack from cold to the East with the general consensus being a ridge from the SW on the backend of the departing depression to the SE before the Atlantic wins through with more deep depressions close to or over the UK and wind and rain for all in average temperatures to end the period. UKMO UKMO today shows a very slack period next week as the early week front finally clears the SE. The air will be chilly and probably filled with a lot of mist, low cloud and fog with frost too for some which if persists could give some very cold days for a time otherwise the weather looks fairly benign at the end of run stage. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a marked complexity of the frontal system affecting the UK from late today until late Monday when it looks like finally clearing the SE. As a result there will be a zone of wet weather across the UK only very slowly clearing SE as the higher pressure and chilly air across the NW eventually makes it's way down to the SE at some point early next week. GEM GEM this morning shows the quiet beginning to the week with the weekend trough only barely having cleared the Southeast early in the week before it moves back North at the same time as being injected by falling pressure from the West. This then strengthens the slack flow across the UK early in the week to much stronger one with eventual Westerly gales and heavy rain for many as on this run Low pressure is held furhter to the North than is shown by other output but meaning little difference in surface conditions to what is being shown by the others. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning makes a much cleaner break and clearance of the weekend trough with High pressure covering Southern Britain early in the week with bright days but frost and fog issues likely by night. Later in the week pressure falls from the NW slowly but only the North looks like being affected by wind and rain from Atlantic depressions while the South holds on to something of a ridge with dry and bright weather maintained rather longer as a result. ECM ECM this morning shows a quiet start to next week as the trough over the SE decays at the start of the week leaving behind a rather cold and potentially frosty and foggy period before the Atlantic winds up by midweek with a deep Low heading SE just to the West of the UK with a strong and cold SE wind bringing rain in across principally Southern and Western areas and as that moves away and decays a new surge of Atlantic energy pushes more Atlantic troughs into the UK with attendant wind and rain especially in the West. Through all of the period the block of High pressure to the East of the UK over Eastern Europe is maintained. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run continues to show a deep trough lying from Southern Greenland through the West of the UK to Italy with cyclonic South or SW winds across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all likely in average tmperatures overall. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend still shows a downhill trend to wet and windy weather though it does look like there will be a lot of disruption to troughs and Low pressure, most likely over the UK as they move up against the persistent block of High pressure to the East. MY THOUGHTS Though nothing very wintry of note is shown in the output today the synoptic pattern could hardly be described as boring as the High pressure block over Europe persists and plays havoc with the models in determining what to do with ever more powerful Atlantic depressions and fronts as we move through the next few weeks. At the current time they mostly all show and agree on the path of the first deep depression as it's programmed to drift down over or just to the West of the UK next week bringing wind, rain and potential gales to places. Once that moves away SE and fills as is currently shown is a window of opportunity for pressure to rise further to the North and NE of the UK and while nothing majorly is shown in this camp this morning look out for the possibility of that happening in future runs over the coming days because if it does I feel it could tilt the balance towards cold reaching our shores soon from the east. As it stands at the moment and bearing in mind we are by then in FI territory the general thrust of thought this morning lies with powering the Atlantic up into a frenzy under a strong Jet flow by then and delivering rain and gales over the UK with a parent and very deep low likely somewhere towards the North and NW. If however, and it is a big 'if' the block to the East proves strong enough the orientation of the second attack from the Atlantic in week 2 could be more favourable under slider Low pressure meaning we might begin to see something more wintry across the UK as we enter December. This is not a forecast from me though and I mention it only as I have seen this setup in many winter's past where projected and powerful storm systems from the Atlantic power up and even strengthen the block to the East. We will need Europe to cool down much more than it currently is though to bring any snow interest into any equation. However, as the ECM Ensembles testifty this morning having a Low pressure belt stretching between Southern Greenland and the UK to Italy with intense High pressure over Russia is not a bad place to be in as we enter December if it's cold weather your looking for later in the season.

Overcast but dry this morning at 7.6C currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Overcast but dry this morning at 7.6C currently. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 20TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening front will kove slowly NE across England and Wales later today and tonight. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Slowly becoming windier and more changeable next week and beyond with rain or showers and strong winds at times moving down from the NW. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the large High pressure block over Europe continuing to divert the Jet Stream both North and South of the UK over the next 5-7 days. Very gradually the flow becomes more direct to lie over or near to the South or North of the UK late in Week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning continues to show High pressure over Eastern Europe continuing to affect the UK in one form or another over the next few weeks. For the most parts the attacks from the Atlantic are half hearted or thwarted as fronts come up against the block and while delivering some rain for all at times there will be some drier spells too with average temperatures as a result. For a period though through the start of Week 2 a more powerful Low pressure area is shown to pull SE across the UK with rain and gales for all as well as some snow on hills in the North as a temporary wedge of colder air accompanies the Low. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar to the operational this morning with much Low pressure disruption near the British Isles through Week 2 delivering a lot of rain and showers for all in temperatures turning rather chilly at times with snow on northern hills. The High pressure over NE Europe does become more favourable in position at times to deliver the chance of colder air from the East too. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles also shares the view of the above model runs with a trend to a more deeply unsettled spell in Week 2 before it shows a rise of pressure from the SW late in the period with cold and frosty plus foggy conditions possible towards the end of the period. UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure developing in 4-5 days across the UK with dry and bright weather with frost and fog at night the most likely scenario towards the beginning and middle of next week following some rain over the start of the weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex frontal system towards the weekend becoming slow moving across SE Britain while pressure rises strongly over the North and West. Occasional rain crossing the UK looks like becoming slow moving near the SE at the weekend before the quiet, colder and perhaps frosty weather develops by the start of the new week. GEM GEM too shows the High pressure across the UK early next week before it become displaced to the East and allows Low pressure to sink down and develop as a complex system around the UK later delivering spells of rain and showers in temperatures close to or a little below average with some snow possible on Northern hills. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows the rain at the weekend disappearing as High pressure ridges up from the SW. The rest of the run shows a mild period with basically SW winds and some rain in the NW while many others become dry and rather cloudy. ECM ECM this morning takes the road towards a slow decline in conditions from the NW through next week and the weekend as the rain clears this weekend to give a drier and colder period with some frosts likely before cloud, wind and rain become more dominant from the NW from midweek with a wet and windy spell looking most likely by the end of the run and beyond. Temperatures look like being close to or maybe a little below average at times and some snow on Northern hills is possible at times later as a result. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run continues to show an ever deepening trough aross the UK by Day 10 powered by a deep Low likely to lie somewhere close to the NW of the UK at that point with spells of wind and rain or showers as a result in average temperatures. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend seems to be for a slow decline in conditions across the UK towards more Atlantic driven weather under Low pressure later next week and beyond. MY THOUGHTS Today's output continues to show a slow decline into more unsettled conditions later next week as the benign and stagnant weather of present mostly due to a High pressure block to the East recedes. The models though still show some resistance from the block to the East even then and as a result steers deep and developing Low pressure down across the UK from the NW. This of course means plenty of wind and rain at times for the UK and with some polar maritime air getting into the mix at times later temperatures would likely be average at best and perhaps a little below at times with some snow on higher elevations of the North. There is still little evidence shown of any major dip into cold weather with the most likely option shown currently that Low pressure to the NW is likely to remain dominant until at least the end of this morning's outlook period with wind and rain at times for all as a result. I will note that although this is the consensus shown this morning High pressure remains over Eastern Europe even at the extremities of the run and at some point in the future it may position itself more favourably to deliver cold to the UK on an Easterly flow but patience is going to have to be administered until later in the season and other building blocks align in better positions than shown at present.

Cloudy but dry this morning, a theme that will probably repeated regularly for the rest of the week. 7.3C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html