Gibby

Bright and very mild start to the day with some cloud developing.13.4C

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY OCTOBER 18TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low in the mid Atlantic will move very slowly NE with a very mild SSW flow over the UK with occasional troughs moving NE in the flow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South at times too. Near or slightly above average temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow is shown to blow in a NE direction across the UK for the next few days before turning more West to East over the UK next week. Beyond that the UK remains the home for the flow probably backing towards a SW to NE axis again through part at least of Week 2. GFS The GFS operational today shows the current SW flow veering more Westerly next week before easing across the South later as a strong belt of High pressure lying to the South of the UK becomes more influential with time. Through week 2 the pattern remains changeable with the High pressure across the South extending further North to all areas at times. This means than occasional rain next week will gradually become more restricted to northern areas with time with the dry and fine weather across the South extending to all areas at times with mists and fogs possible at night. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are less supportive of the High pressure belt to the South giving anything more than occasional drier and brighter spells across the South with the North unsettled, windy and sometimes wet throughout. The South too would see some rain at times along with breezy conditions with temperatures held to values close to or above the seasonal average. UKMO UKMO this morning shows an active cold front sweeping SE on Tuesday with wind and rain for all for a time before cooler and fresher air brings a mix of sunshine and showers, wintry on Scottish hills. Milder weather returns on a blustery Westerly wind through Wednesday and Thursday with some rain at times especially over the North and West. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts support the raw data in full today gradually lowering temperatures towards the seasonal average early next week and as an active cold front sweeps SE on Tuesday a chilly 24 hours with showers is shown with milder air over the Atlantic poised in the wings to move across the UK around midweek. GEM The GEM operational today suggests a changeable pattern under a basic Westerly flow with bands of rain and showers moving East across the UK at times. Temperatures would be lower than currently but still relatively mild but windy offsetting the feel. Late in the run a cool NW flow heralds the arrival of higher pressure towards the SW of the UK. NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains the rather changeable theme with strong breezes and rain at times though the South would see least as pressure stays High to the South. Temperatures will stay on the mild side of average for many though a few cooler and showery interventions can be expected across the North at times next week. ECM The ECM operational today continues a blustery feel next week with a mix of bright spells and periods of cloud and rain and showers. Temperatures will fluctuate but be lower than currently but never particularly chilly. The South will see the best of any dry weather and later in the run a strong pressure rise close to the SW would bring dry and fine weather to many areas by Day 10 with the introduction to the risk of mist and fog patches. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains unchanged from the basic Westerly flow continuing across the UK, most active over the North. MY THOUGHTS The models continue to promote a continuation of SW and then Westerly winds across the UK over the coming two weeks with rain and wind at times. Pressure remains projected to be High to the South of the UK which will serve to reduce the affects of more active fronts crossing the North as we move deeper into next week. Nevertheless the influence of this large High pressure belt to the South could serve to stall fronts coming down from the North to stall over Southern England on occasion giving rise to cloudy and drizzly conditions at times at least. However, later in the period the longer term models have a desire to push this High pressure belt up towards and perhaps into the UK giving rise to drier and brighter weather for all with mist and fog problems developing at night should this occur. Over the period as a whole temperatures will hold up well towards average or above but it is unlikely that the current high vales would be maintained. In fact there could be a few polar maritime interventions of air which could deliver wintry showers over Scotland briefly next week but given the time of year it still looks unlikely that anything wintry be it in a calm anticyclonic way or any other is shown by any output this morning with no real pattern shift shown away from this basic Atlantic driven Westerly pattern on the output today.

Overnight showers gone now with bright and sunny skies and temperatures around 9C. Webcam image available below.

Overnight showers gone now with bright and sunny skies and temperatures around 9C. Webcam image available below.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 17TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A deep Low in the mid Atlantic will move very slowly NE with a very mild SSW flow over the UK with occasional troughs moving NE in the flow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times but some drier and brighter periods across the South at times too. Near or slightly above average temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow will blow in a NE direction over the UK for the remainder of this week. Thereafter it tilts more West to East across the UK as it ridges over the Atlantic. This ridging amplifies further later in the run with the UK lying in the South moving feed on the Eastern periphery of this flow late in the run. GFS The GFS operational today shows Westerly winds dominating the weather across the UK for the entire period this morning. The Westerly flow will be a cyclonic one for the most part with deep Low pressure moving East to the North carrying troughs across the UK at times with rain and showers. High pressure will not be far to the South at times and this allows less rainfall in the South and East with longer dry spells and temperatures never far from average if not above at times in the South. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles support the Westerly theme through it's run too but shows slightly lower pressure overall with some heavy rainfall reaching the South at times too and a shift to much cooler and showery weather in a Northerly to end the run with the risk of wintry showers for a time in the North and an increase in the possibility of the incidence of frost and fog . UKMO UKMO this morning shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK early next week with a trough moving across on Tuesday carrying a band of rain followed by fresh WNW winds and some showers across the North and West in particular. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows the mild SW flow turning more Westerly with time and taking away the cold front edging across the SE at the weekend and the mildest air ahead of it. A fresher westerly flow is then shown with further Atlantic troughs queued up to cross the UK early next week. GEM The GEM operational today shows unstable Westerly winds throughout next week with temperatures nearer to average than currently. There will continue to be rain at times as troughs cross East on occasions in the strong West flow. NAVGEM NAVGEM indicates a less strong Westerly flow with higher pressure especially over the South. Nevertheless, there will continue to be rain at times for all but most of the heaviest rain towards the NW with longer drier spells in the SE with temperatures near or a little above average in general. ECM The ECM operational today leans towards rather better weather across the South developing with time as a spell of rain early in the week from a trough clears SE allowing pressure to rise close to the South. This then holds as a ridge later with the Westerly flow shown by other output restricted more towards Northern Britain where rain and showers continue while the South turn dry and bright with mist and fog issues possible night and morning. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has been for pressure to rise close to Southern Britain next week although it's only ECM which shows this as a major influence to the weather in the South. MY THOUGHTS The pattern across the UK over the next few weeks continues to look very Atlantic dominated. However, things between the models are not that straightforward and one of the notable themes I have picked up on in the past 24 hours is the desire to track the Jet Flow slightly further North than recent output sufficient to allow pressure to rise across France and Biscay. This steers Low pressure slightly further North and lessens the effects of these somewhat across the South. However, at the moment most output shows changes from recent output only limited with all areas subject to wind and rain at times next week with the more likely effects being the lessening in both the strength of the wind in the South as well as less rainfall in general down here. However, ECM goes one step further and brings a strong High close to Southern Britain by midweek next week which then holds as a ridge close by thereafter and would bring dry and quiet weather down here while the unsettled conditions continue further North. So all in all it's still a breezy and changeable period to come for all areas but there is room for some better weather to develop across the South at times over the next few weeks and it looks a good deal less wet than some output was showing yesterday morning with temperatures continuing to be shown to hold up reasonably well everywhere over the period.

A grey start with total cloud cover and an increasing SE breeze. Dry at the moment though. Currently 9.8C with pressure falling at 1004.4mbs

A grey start with total cloud cover and an increasing SE breeze. Dry at the moment though. Currently 9.8C with pressure falling at 1004.4mbs

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 16TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An occluded front will move NE across the UK today and tonight to lie West to East over Scotland tomorrow. A very mild SSW flow will develop across England and Wales behind it. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with showers or longer spells of sometimes heavy rain in strong SW then West winds. A few drier and brighter interludes in near average temperatures overall. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow will continue to strengthen over the next few days and edge to a position over the UK in a strong NE flow through the coming days. It then shifts it's axis to a West to East motion still across the UK next week. Late in the period it remains quite strong though ridges North across the UK at the end of the period. GFS The GFS operational today shows Atlantic based changeable weather dominant across the UK throughout it's duration this morning. The very mild but unstable SW flow over the next three to four days turns to a cooler Westerly from Sunday with next week seeing plenty of wind and rain as successive troughs and Low pressure to the North swings across the UK. Some drier and brighter periods are shown under weak and transient ridges but these seem quickly chased away by the next depression and fronts. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles support the operational in full with cooler Westerly winds with occasional gales and heavy rain dominant at frequent periods over the next 10 days. It's only at the end of the run when pressure builds North across the UK from the South bringing some relief from the Atlantic onslaught for a time especially over the South. UKMO UKMO this morning shows complex Low pressure to the North of the UK and a strong Westerly flow over all parts of the UK. The weather would be very unsettled and windy with showers or longer spells of rain in temperatures having returned close to the seasonal average by early next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a very mild and strong .SW flow across the UK. there are multiple troughs crossing erratically East and quicker Northeast over the UK at times with rain and showers as a result for all. An active series of fronts moving in from the west on Sunday spell the end to the very mild air and bring fresher cooler air in from higher latitudes of the North Atlantic to start next week . GEM The GEM operational today shows a very mild SW flow shifting towards a cooler but equally strong Westerly flow next week. With Low pressure remaining to the North throughout the remainder of the run the weather will be wet and windy at times next week with temperatures having fallen to average levels overall. NAVGEM NAVGEM indicates the same theme albeit a little slower in delivering the cooler air to the SE early next week. Nevertheless, the pattern remains unstable for all parts of the UK with rain at times and temperatures gradually declining to average levels for all as we move through next week. ECM The ECM operational today also underlines the theme shown by most output that after the deep mid Atlantic Low moves NE and away to the North at the weekend it opens the door for cooler and unstable Westerly winds to take command next week with rain at times. After some very mild values at the end of this week and start to the weekend temperatures will fall off to average next week in a blustery West wind with heavy rain at times . NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still towards the milder weather later this week being replaced by something cooler and still unsettled next week with all models now in line in endorsing this pattern. MY THOUGHTS All models now support the theme of the very mild SW flow giving way to cooler Westerly winds next week. The process will be accompanied by plenty of unsettled and windy weather with some heavy rain at times offsetting the feel of the very mild temperatures in the far SE. Through next week the winds remain strong but with a source nearer to Greenland rather than the Azores temperatures will be forced down to average levels. Low pressure will be deep and dominant for much of the time close to Northern Britain carrying successive bands of rain and showers quickly East across all areas at times. As always in this Westerly regime there will be some drier and brighter days in isolation as transient ridges pass by but there seems little to suggest any major shift back towards High pressure based weather anytime soon with any shift restricted to the final days of the GFS Ensemble group at the close of the run. While winds remain from the West and the profile of the Jet Stream remains as it is predicted to be from next week it is unlikely that the UK will turn particularly cool so frost and fog patches will be restricted as a result. Any troublesome weather likely to be reported upon if anything will be the amount of rainfall that is likely to fall over the period particularly on the Western and Northern up-slopes but elsewhere too are likely to see higher than average rainfall over the period resulting in water tables becoming dangerously close to saturation levels by the end of the period which is not something we want to see this early in the Winter season.

Still a damp and breezy feel out this morning as the dying embers of yesterdays rain hang on across this part of the SW. 9.8C in a NW breeze. Totally dull.

Still a damp and breezy feel out this morning as the dying embers of yesterdays rain hang on across this part of the SW. 9.8C in a NW breeze. Totally dull.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 15TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak Low pressure near East Anglia will fill up as a front attached to a deep mid Atlantic Low pressure moves NE over England tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with some rain at times but with some dry and very mild weather likely in the South and East for a time. Windy at times. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow will strengthen somewhat across France tomorrow before trending North across the UK on a SW to NE axis towards the weekend before returning back South on a more West to East axis for a while next week. Clarity becomes more clouded later in the period but the general theme is for a relatively strong flow to continue to lie in the vicinity of the British Isles in a undulating pattern. GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep mid Atlantic Low pressure moving slowly NE towards the weekend enabling a mild or very mild but strong SW flow to establish over the UK with troughs delivering some heavy rain at times especially across the West and North. Through the weekend and week 2 the flow veers more towards a Westerly point with cooler conditions developing but no less changeable with spells of string winds, rain and showers all featuring for all areas on occasion in week 2 with temperatures returning to more average levels. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are in agreement with the operational in format with the caveat that next week will see a typical Westerly type Autumn setup with Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of the UK each delivering bands of rain followed by showers and fluctuating temperatures between somewhat above average in the strong and mild SW'lies and rain to somewhat below in the colder NW'lies behind each departing Low pressure. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure holding firm over Southern Europe at the weekend with an active trough of Low pressure out to the West making slow and erratic progress West to East feeding rain in from the West and displacing the mildest of the conditions away from the SE . THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts indicate a very mild or even warm SW flow over the UK towards the weekend. The atmosphere is shown to be littered with troughs feeding NNE in the flow and tempering any thoughts of sunshine as cloud and outbreaks of sometimes heavy rain continually feed NNE in the very mild flow. GEM The GEM operational today shows a very mild SW flow in the short term gradually veering Westerly later in the weekend and making for changeable Westerlies next week between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the South. All areas would be at risk of rain next week in average temperatures with the sometimes strong winds delivering most rain to the North and NW with longer drier spells towards the South. NAVGEM NAVGEM simplifies the general theme of very mild SW winds and rain at the weekend veering Westerly next week and cooling down somewhat in a continuing basic unsettled theme. ECM The ECM operational today also underlines the theme shown by most output that after the deep mid Atlantic Low moves NE and away to the North at the weekend it opens the door for cooler and unstable Westerly winds to take command next week with rain at times. After some very mild values at the end of this week and start to the weekend temperatures will fall off to average next week in a blustery West wind. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still towards the milder weather later this week being replaced by something cooler and still unsettled next week but the options are widely scattered within this general theme. MY THOUGHTS The general theme of less mild weather moving across the UK from the West at the weekend is maintained this morning as a deep mid Atlantic Low moves NE to the North of the UK and tilts the SW flow to a more direct Westerly later delivering changeable weather with rain at times next week as successive troughs and Low pressure areas move East across the Atlantic and over or close to Northern Britain. There are small variations shown between the models on this basic theme mainly hinging on the possibility of higher pressure ridging up close to Southern Britain on occasion and bringing brief spells of drier and less breezy weather in the South before the next Low and troughs displaces it. With this Westerly aspect to the weather temperatures will never fall low and frost and fog will be very limited to ridges behind passing Lows. Equally there may be periods of strong winds when gales are a possibility but it looks unlikely that anything out of the ordinary given the time of year is likely. So putting a broad brush over the next few weeks it looks like typical mid Autumn weather with rain and showers at times along with occasional strong winds and some drier and brighter periods, these chiefly over the South in average temperatures overall once the up and coming very mild interlude gives way later in the weekend.

Large rainfall totals likey to amass across parts of the UK in the coming weeks as the Jet flow ratchets up with warm moist air over the UK and Low pressure coming together to deliver the potential for very wet and windy conditions at times for the coming 10-14 days at least.

Cloudy and damp but not as much rain here as expected. Currently cloudy and windy at 10.7C

Cloudy and damp but not as much rain here as expected. Currently cloudy and windy at 10.7C

Quiet in here this morning suggesting the models don't suggest anything interesting of note this morning. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY OCTOBER 13TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY OCTOBER 14TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of Low pressure near SE England will edge very slowly NE out into the Southern North Sea tomorrow filling slowly . MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with some rain at times but with some dry and very mild weather likely in the South and East for a time from later this week. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet flow to the South of the UK will edge further North on a SW to NE axis over the UK later this week before becoming a more organised and straightforward West to East flow across Southern England in Week 2 strong at times. GFS The GFS operational today shows the current Low in the SE filling over the next 24 hours as a deep Low in mid Atlantic drives frontal troughs NE across the UK later in the week leading to a period of mild and strong SW winds and showers or rain at times especially in the North and West. Thereafter winds veer to a more Westerly point for a time with cooler and still unsettled, occasionally wet and windy weather for all parts. Late in this run High pressure returns to bring a more benign period to end the run with dry rather than wet weather becoming dominant with frost and fog at night as High pressure ends up centred across the UK. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly in agreement to the operational this week but differ next week in showing a very unsettled and potentially stormy period as deep Low pressure to the North maintains wet and windy weather alternating with chilly and showery weather lasting through to the end of the run with no significant pressure rise shown. UKMO UKMO this morning shows mild SW winds bathing the UK at the end of this week. They will be unstable though with a frontal boundary likely to be lying across the UK somewhere and with pressure below 1015mbs everywhere some rain can be expected almost anywhere but as always in SW'lies more so to the North and West. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are fairly supportive of the raw data showing a mild and showery SW flow towards the end of the working week before a build of pressure brings a drier phase to the SE at the weekend. However, pressure is falling to the West and North and fronts from the Atlantic look likely to approach Britain from the West outside the time frame shown. GEM The GEM operational today looks generally unsettled throughout with the mild SW flow later in the week giving way to Low pressure from the West or SW settling over the UK for a time with showers and rain at times from the weekend in average temperatures but with some drier periods in between. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a period of very mild SW winds and although a drier and perhaps brighter phase is shown for the SE generally unsettled weather will continue to bring rain at times to many Northern and Western areas in particular. ECM The ECM operational today continues the theme of very mild SW wins at the end of the week with some dry, bright and rather warm weather possible over the SE for a time before pressure falls somewhat and more unsettled conditions encroach across all areas from the West for a time under a shallow Low edging in from the West. The main Low pressure is however, steered quite a way North on this run which holds higher pressure to the SW which encroaches towards and over Britain later in the shape of a ridge bringing cooler and more benign conditions to end the run in the West. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still towards the milder weather later this week being replaced by something cooler and still unsettled next week but the options are widely scattered within this general theme. MY THOUGHTS There is one constant shown by all the output this morning and that is the weather is going to turn much milder later this week as SW winds are shown to move up over the UK from the Azores. These moist winds look like carrying a lot of moisture and Northern and Western areas could be quite wet at times but it still could be that the SE becomes rather warm and brighter for a time though this looks far from guaranteed by some output today. In any event all models then suggest a period when cooler Atlantic Westerly winds take hold lowering temperatures to average and continuing a theme of rain at times. It's from that point early next week that an array of options are shown ranging from a potentially wet and stormy period from the GFS Ensembles to something more moderate from ECM with High pressure edging back into the equation again by Day 10, this time from the SW. The GFS operational also takes a diversion off into high pressure land towards the end of it's 14 day run with if verified much fog and frost as a result. As all these options are the result of complex atmospheric upwind patterns shown for next week they are all viable but not guaranteed and as a result it is hard to predict where we will be synoptically in 10-14 days time. However, what is more certain is that there appears nothing out of the ordinary likely to come upon us suddenly over the next few weeks as the pattern seems like standard Autumn weather patterns currently none of which are showing any immediate slip into deep autumn or early Winter weather with just the usual bouts of windy and wet weather to contend with at times in broadly near to just above average temperatures.

I find looking at charts more than 10 days out for specifics is quite futile really. I know I state what the charts are showing in weather terms at that distance within my reports purely to inform those less able to read charts but it's only my evaluation summary at the end which I hope gives a cross model, balanced and unbiased view of the most likely scenario taking all output as a whole. Despite isolated mouth watering charts from our old friend GFS in FI in recent runs I see nothing to indicate any slant of note towards winter anytime soon..quite the opposite in the short term actually.

Not much to see on the webcam today unless you like extensive mist and fog. Just 4.6C currently with no wind.

Not much to see on the webcam today unless you like extensive mist and fog. Just 4.6C currently with no wind.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY OCTOBER 12TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY OCTOBER 13TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An area of Low pressure will move slowly North over France and into Southern England later tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with some rain at times but with some dry and very mild weather likely in the South and East for a time from later this week. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The rather weak Jet flow currently lying to the South of the UK is predicted to strengthen later this week and ridge North to lie SW to NE across the North of the UK next weekend before reverting back South again through week 2 while maintaining a basic sine wave structure. GFS The GFS operational today shows complex Low pressure moving up into Southern Britain over the next few days before filling close to the East coast in a day or two. This is then absorbed by deep Low pressure slow moving over the Atlantic but sending an active trough NE across the UK midweek. This then brings a mild SW flow with showers as pressure builds from the SE. The weather could turn quite pleasant in the SE for a time before the Atlantic Low moves North of the UK and brings a cooler Westerly flow with bands of rain and showers for all later while at the end of the run pressure builds strongly as High pressure develops over or near to the East of the UK with cool and settled conditions with a fog risk night and morning takes over from wind and rain. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are decreasingly similar to the operational as time passes this morning with the broad structure and sequence of events basically the same as the operational with just differences in timings and depth to the more unsettled phase as we enter week 2. This then leads on to a different end to the run as potentially stormy conditions for a time are followed by colder air being drawn down across the UK from the North towards the end of the run with the operational's late run High pressure held further West by the Ensembles and keeping a cold Northerly flow over the UK with potential for wintry showers in the North and frost at night generally. UKMO UKMO this morning shows Low pressure held back well into mid Atlantic at the end of the week and start to next weekend. After an unsettled midweek period mild SW and later warm South winds bathe the UK with any rain only for the North and West while the South and East become fine, warm and dry for the most part. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure early in the week and a trough midweek all bringing rain before a trend towards mild SW winds if rather cloudy and damp weather looks poised to move up across the UK later with pressure rising steadily across the UK. GEM The GEM operational today shows the mid Atlantic Low being drawn closer in towards the UK late in the coming week making any reliable dry weather harder to find even in the South as spells of wind and rain are then drawn across the UK from the SW and then West. After a period of relatively mild weather late in the week things turn cooler and fresher to start Week 2 as winds veer more Westerly and become strong. NAVGEM NAVGEM as some other output holds Low pressure further away to the West later this week with pressure becoming High to the East setting up a very mild Southerly flow for the UK with fine and dry conditions for many with any rainfall restricted to Northern and Westernmost parts by next weekend. ECM The ECM operational today continues this basic theme of an unsettled first half to this week before mild and less unsettled weather follow a trough NE by Thursday. The deep and complex mid Atlantic Low then feeds slowly NE later and the mild or very mild if rather cloudy SW flow across the South and East slowly gives way to more unsettled weather across all of the UK again by the end of the run as winds become more Westerly, stronger and cooler with rain at times for all by the end. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still showing a conflict of interest in whether Low pressure to the West and North overcomes the power of High pressure to the SE and East in the longer term outlook this morning. This conflict has still to be resolved from the latest outputs today. MY THOUGHTS There seems reasonably good agreement on the next 4-5 days weather before the models differ somewhat in where we go from then. In the short term the Low currently coming up into Southern England from France looks like giving a couple of inclement days of cloud and rain in cool weather over England and Wales with Scotland fairing best. Then the mid Atlantic Low pulls an active trough NE midweek with more heavy rain in places before it more importantly introduces the UK to increasingly mild and less unsettled weather towards the weekend as High pressure builds to the SE. It's then the discrepancies between the solutions shown by the models come into play with some output showing a period at least of potentially warm weather affecting parts of the South and East though cloud amounts could temper this somewhat. Other output shows the Low to the West moving in closer to keep the unsettled if milder theme going late this coming week and weekend before a general consensus for a dip into more generally unsettled weather in week 2 is supported. This then heralds the usual array of wild and windy scenarios offered by GFS in the low resolution period who eventually shows an excursion into late Autumn by the end of the run with cold North winds, widespread frost and wintry showers in the North possible. All speculative at this range of course and I think the more likely scenario is something close to what ECM offers this morning being quite likely meaning after an unsettled start to this week a period of mild or very mild and dry weather for the South and East could hold on quite a while before the unsettled conditions held to the North and West become more widespread again next week as the Jet tilts more West to East across the UK or to the South and sinks back South. In Summary despite some wind and rain for all in the next few weeks given it is October there is nothing to suggest anything disruptively unpleasant in the longer term this morning with potentially very mild weather being the most noteworthy parameter to be the weather headline to be talked about over the period especially in the SE.

A dry and bright start to the day following 2.0mm from overnight decaying showers as they moved NE from the SW Peninsula. Currently 8.7C with no wind.

A dry and bright start to the day following 2.0mm from overnight decaying showers as they moved NE from the SW Peninsula. Currently 8.7C with no wind.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 11TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 12TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An unstable and slackening SW flow covers the UK over the next 24-36 hours. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times and strong winds too later but with some dry and bright weather for some next week especially in the East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The general thrust of the Jet stream looks like remaining over or to the South of the UK in varying strengths and trajectories over the coming two weeks. GFS The GFS operational today shows the current slack pressure gradient tighten by the middle to end of next week as a deep mid Atlantic Low slowly edges towards the UK from the West. The slack pressure early on will contain upper Low pressure near to the SE which will throw some wet conditions across the SE for a time and the increase in Southerly winds later in the week will bring warmer weather before the rain slowly edges in by the weekend. It then shows a steadily cooling and unsettled period developing through week 2 as the Jet flow strengthens over the UK and deliver some rain and showers for all. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are similar to the operational in many respects especially as one would expect early in the run but differs in Week 2 with a marked deepening of Low pressure areas steaming in from the West and delivering potential severe gales and heavy rain to all areas later in Week 2. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deep Atlantic Low midweek with a strengthening mild South or SE flow with rain edging slowly in from the SW. By the end of the week the Low becomes more complex and a SW flow will continue to bring breezy, mild and unsettled conditions with rain at times to end the week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are supportive of the raw data gradually bringing the influence of deep Atlantic low pressure towards the SW of Britain soon after midweek. GEM The GEM operational today shows the deep Low in the Atlantic remaining in situ until deep into the run. This supports a slow rise of pressure from the South and NW towards next weekend with a spell of fine and bright weather with mist and fog by night before High pressure quickly collapses SE and the Atlantic finally breaks through with stronger winds and rain to end the run in 10 days time. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the Low moving gently NE later next week and bringing all of the UK into mild SW winds with rain at times towards the North and West while the South and East could more likely stay largely dry and bright at times. ECM The ECM operational today shows mild SW winds as well later next week following a trough across the UK soon after midweek with some rain. After a few drier days across the South a change in the orientation of the Jet Stream brings a change to cooler Westerly winds and spells of rain and showers to end the run as Low pressure crosses East just to the North of the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still showing a conflict of interest in whether Low pressure to the West and North overcomes the power of High pressure to the SE in the longer term outlook this morning. MY THOUGHTS There remains confusion between the models on which way to take the weather later in the forecast period this morning. It all hinges on how the deep mid Atlantic low developing next week behaves. Most output has it slowly moving East or NE towards or to the NW of the UK. Those that show it moving East would bring a greater threat of UK wide unsettled but mild weather with rain at times while a NE movement would restrict most of the rain eventually towards the North and West allowing pressure to rise to the SE and setting England and Wales up in very mild air for a time. In those models that go further out there is a general agreement that the Jet stream will strengthen through Week 2 and as the GFS Ensembles suggest this morning this could power up some major depressions later delivering gales and heavy rain on a more widespread basis by then. On the counterpart side GEM holds the Low out in the Atlantic to allow the higher pressure to the NW and SE later next week to combine and give a period of quiet and settled conditions next weekend before it too breaks this down to Atlantic low pressure to end it's run. My own general thoughts this morning is that ECM may not be far from the mark with the North and West seeing the greatest threat from wind and rain after we all see a band of it move East soon after midweek. The South and East may well see a dry and mild period next weekend before the unsettled weather returns on a cooler West to East airflow later. While some fog and frost patches could occur towards the North and West over oncoming nights the rest of the period looks like being very mild at times particularly at night with balmy SW winds for a large portion of time from midweek next week.

A dry, cool and sunny start to the day in the West Country this morning. Currently 6.0C and no wind.

A dry, cool and sunny start to the day in the West Country this morning. Currently 6.0C and no wind.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 10TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY OCTOBER 11TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An unstable and slackening SW flow covers the UK over the next 24-36 hours. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times and strong winds too later but with some dry and bright weather for some next week especially in the East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream in this morning's GFS Ensemble run shows the flow remaining generally South of the UK although quite weak at times over the coming three to four days. It then strengthens somewhat all the way down over Spain and Southern France before slowly migrating North across the UK for much of week 2 and possibly further North still right at the end of the run. GFS The GFS operational today shows relatively slack areas of low pressure dominant across and around the UK in a slack airflow over the coming 4-5 days. This means showers or rain at times for all with some dry and bright periods too when mist and fog plus some frost patches occur overnight with a rather cool feel developing generally. Then deeper into next week milder Southerlies develop as an Atlantic Low moves in closer to the west with rain and fresh winds becoming commonplace for many in the west and North extending East with time. This then sets up a potentially stormy spell late in the run with deep Low pressure near NW Britain steering periods of rain and SW gales across all areas at times to end the period. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are quite harmonious to the operational in theory this morning though the differences at the surface could be more marked in Week 2. It, as the operational suggests a spell of quiet and unstable conditions with rain at times in cool weather lasting into the middle of next week but then holds High pressure closer to the SE of the UK which in turn focuses more dry and potentially mild weather for these areas as a Southerly airflow develops. The slower advancement of the deep Atlantic Low to the west by then is also indicative of less wind and rain than the operational shows and subsequently shows less deep Low pressure late in the run mainly affecting the North and West with rain while the South and East stay mainly dry, bright and mild. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a ridge of High pressure extending South across the UK from the North midweek with dry, bright and rather cool weather with mist, fog and frost patches quite extensive at night. The SW will become cloudier with some rain by Thursday's end of run chart as a deep Low to the west extends it's influence slowly East. THE FAX CHARTS The general thrust of the Fax Charts follows the raw data quite closely with a small but active low near the SE on Monday possibly delivering some copious rainfall and cool weather for a time early in the week before the cool ridge from the North takes hold midweek. GEM The GEM operational today shows slack Low pressure in control over the coming few days with further rain and showers at times before a small but active area of Low pressure affects all of Southern Britain early in the week. Once this passes a quieter few days are followed by milder Southerly winds as a deep Atlantic low makes slow progress East. Rain will then edge West to East slowly across the UK to set up a windy SW dominated airflow by 10 days time with rain and strong winds at times, heaviest towards the North and West. NAVGEM NAVGEM also brings this troublesome small Low up across Southern Britain at the start of next week with a spell of cool rain for many in the South before a ridge behind it settles things down for a time. Then as winds settle South or SE rain will edge in from the West in association with a deep mid Atlantic Low. This appears to set up a milder period under SW winds and rain at times to end the run as a troughs moves slowly NE across the UK. ECM The ECM operational today brings a similar sequence of events in the short and mid term of it's run but then goes the opposite way to GFS and indeed much of the other output in ridging High pressure up across Southern and Eastern Britain in a week or so with fine and warm weather affecting England and Wales by next weekend in balmy South or SW winds. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend is still showing a conflict of interest in whether Low pressure to the West and North overcomes the power of High pressure to the SE in the longer term outlook this morning. MY THOUGHTS The synoptic long term outlook is no more clear this morning as the models struggle to deal with the effect of the mid Atlantic Low next week and how it determines the events of weather over and around the UK thereafter when coupled with the anticipated rise of pressure over France and Europe later next week. Most output and particularly GFS keep the Jet flow well South and powers up some big storms later which would bring rain and gales for all but this is less marked within it's ensembles. It's hard to see where UKMO would take us given it's relatively short model run span with GEM and NAVGEM offering a somewhat half-way house between GFS and the more interesting ECM operational today. Should the ECM operational verify then Southern and Eastern Britain will receive unseasonably warm temperatures with dry conditions prevailing under the Southerly breeze with the Atlantic Low pressure much weaker and held well at bay for the time being. It will be interesting to see where the operational sits within it's ensembles released at around 09:30 but I wouldn't mind waging a bet it is on the better side of the pack with the most likely scenario ending up more akin to being something like GEM but we will see. So having said all that and to summarise it looks like next week will start cool and wet in the South before all places see a quieter and perhaps misty and/or frosty risk midweek before a slow transition to milder and perhaps wetter weather extends slowly East across the UK late next week with Week 2 then being in the land of the gods ranging between potential gales and heavy rain and mild and dry in the South and East. As always more runs are needed but I think we can safely say that no early wintry shocks to the system weather-wise look like occurring over the coming two weeks.