Gibby

Seen several flickers of lightning up to the NW of us off and on overnight. Just about dry here currently following 2.2mm of rain from overnight showers but it looks like strong convection is developing inland quickly this morning. Mild and breezy at 13.0C currently

HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 9TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 10TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery SW flow covers the UK as Low pressure fills and drifts North across Northern Britain. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times and strong winds too later but with some dry and bright weather for some next week especially in the East. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream in this morning's GFS Ensemble run show the flow maintained close to Southern Britain for the next three to four days. It then weakens and splits with the main arm remaining close to the South of the UK with a weak northern arm to the North briefly weakening. Later in the run the pattern simplifies to a main West to East flow across Southern Britain. GFS The GFS operational today shows the current UK based low pressure filling slowly and drifting North. It now looks like another Low moves NE towards Southern Britain at the weekend with more rain at times and it will become rather cool in the North. Then as this moves away pressure recovers and a couple of milder and brighter days are shown with mist and fog at night before the Atlantic is shown to ratchet up a few gears again with deep Low pressure crossing to the North and bringing rain and gales to all areas before colder and showery weather develops later on a marked cold North wind with some snow showers on Scottish mountains and frosts widespread at night towards the end of the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles look distinctly unsettled this morning following the operational up until the early part of next week. It then brings a deep Atlantic Low slowly in towards the UK with another batch of wind, rain and showers not dissimilar to the setup we have currently. This then becomes reinforced by further Low pressure from the West at the end of the run and with colder air entrained around a major Low to the North by the end of the run gales and heavy showers would be the order of the day for all with temperatures somewhat below average by then. UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure only very slowly rising at the weekend and start to next week with a trough remaining close to Southern Britain in particular maintaining the threat of some rain at times well into next week. Northern parts look like becoming rather direr if rather chilly by night with some mist and fog also a risk at night for many as winds will become generally light Easterly. THE FAX CHARTS The general thrust of the Fax Charts this morning focuses on a slow and gentle rise of pressure and a slackening of winds across the UK over the weekend and start to next week. There will be a lot of dry weather around but a lot of cloud at times too along with some night time fogs to clear. Some rain is also possible mostly in a showery form and more towards the South by Tuesday. GEM The GEM operational today also shows Low pressure moving up perilously close to SE Britain early next week with some rain for many Southern districts. At the same time pressure builds to the North and NE and once the Low has passed a ridge builds strongly down across the UK with dry conditions with mist and fog at night and some warm days in the SE. The strengthening South-easterly winds on it's Western flank will bring cloud and some rain towards the far SW later. NAVGEM NAVGEM also brings a new Low pressure up from the South towards Southern England early next week bringing more wind and rain here. it is shown to stay somewhat more settled in the North as pressure builds somewhat and this better weather then extends South to all areas towards the end of the run as Low pressure is held well to the west and a slack high pressure develops close to the East. ECM The ECM operational today brings new Low pressure up towards Southern Britain early next week with several more days of wind, rain and showers while the North stays at least somewhat drier with higher pressure to the North. Later next week the model brings Atlantic Low pressure into play and with pressure rising over the near Continent the weather warms up considerably under SW winds. However, fronts will be pushing slowly in from the West with some heavy rain and strong winds where the warm air meets the polar frontal zone somewhere across the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend has shifted away from a UK wide improvement towards a more modified version probably lasting only a few days and more towards the East. MY THOUGHTS A very complex synoptic pattern is shown to develop across the UK in the coming weeks as the desire for High pressure to rise from the SE and deliver some mild and pleasant weather is confronted by rather less desire for pressure to fall to the North of the UK next week. The result is a standoff involving a delay in improvements by slack pressure gradients across the UK and a new Low moving up from the South to affect principally Southern areas early next week with a renewed batch of rain and showers. Once this has passed there is a window of opportunity for high pressure to the SE to link with the ridge to the North and with the UK likely to lie on the Western flank of this a warming Southerly or SW flow is likely to develop from the middle of next week. After this the long term models remain mixed but it all hinges on how much progress and what angle of attack a deep Low pressure in the Atlantic has in making inroads into the UK later. Most of the longer term output does show it making at least some progress and setting up another windy and wet spell at the end of the run and if the door fully opens as GFS shows today then some very wet and windy weather is likely with colder air entrained too. It's all very complex this morning and will not be resolved until we see how the spanner in the works Low pressure early next week behaves with it's engagement of other pressure systems around the UK. So I think we can summarise by saying changeable conditions are likely over the next two weeks with rain and wind at times for all areas but with some drier and brighter periods too when it might feel quite mild.

I expected quite a lot more shower activity about this morning than currently. It is 11C in Kilmersdon at the moment and a light SW wind too with broken cloud. Live view for those interested on the link within my signature

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 8TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 9TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An unstable West or SW flow covers the UK with a deep Low approaching Western Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Low pressure easing away North and West with pressure rising later over or to the East and SE of the UK. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream is likely to remain positioned well South of the UK for the next 4-5 days while weakening steadily. It then buckles South across the Atlantic and returns in a North or NE flow up the Western side of the UK before settling back to a generally Easterly flow across the heart of the UK by the end of week 2. GFS The GFS operational his morning shows the current deep Low to the West of Ireland moving slowly North and NE filling slowly over the coming days but remaining influential well into the weekend with it's showers and rain at times for all. Pressure continues to gently rise early next week in response to deep Atlantic Low pressure throwing a ridge across the UK and Northern Europe drying things up for many. Later in the run this High declines SE and a SW and then Westerly flow with Atlantic Low pressure running across Northern Britain is shown to return rain and wind at times to all parts later in generally near to average temperatures. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles differ only in small scale synoptics to that of the operational with the resultant conditions at the surface remaining very similar to that of the operational in that after a showery remainder of this week and weekend a brighter and in places warmer period develops as High pressure builds over and then to the SE before a return to changeable weather under a predominantly Westerly flow develops later in week 2. UKMO UKMO this morning shows pressure becoming slack across the UK at the weekend and into the start of next week though with pressure gently rising. Some slow moving coastal type showers are likely but with light winds and some clear spells at night some mist and fog patches could become an issue night and morning. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure to the West and SW with a complex array of troughs gradually transferring NE over the coming 4-5 days with the main centre lying close to the far North at the weekend as a much weaker feature as pressure rises slowly from the South and pressure becomes slack across the UK. GEM The GEM operational today is broadly similar in the short term before it too develops a deep Atlantic low at the start of next week which sends up a strong ridge to the SE and brings warm SW winds and rain to the North and West before a large High just to the SE extends a ridge through all areas later bringing some unusually warm and bright weather across the South of the UK in particular from Southern Europe in a week to 10 days time. NAVGEM NAVGEM also rises pressure to the SE next week though it is a slow progress. Nevertheless, by the middle of next week all areas become bathed in mild SW winds with any rain becoming restricted to the far North and West with some pleasant October weather developing across the South and East. ECM The ECM operational shows a more integrated push towards the UK of deep Atlantic Low pressure next week with a deep centre lying not far to the West of Ireland by the end of next week. This pushes the axis of the ridge of High pressure further East and allows a more coherent push of unstable but mild SW winds across all areas with rain at times becoming more extensive too by the end of the run. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards at least a period of drier, warmer and brighter weather is shown by most models next week but there is some disagreement as to what extent and duration this might take. MY THOUGHTS Having seen GFS lead the way yesterday on a new theme of High pressure based weather yesterday morning and see this extended to later day runs too from many models it has decided to be less dramatic in the form this might take on this morning's output as the Atlantic proves a stronger beast, pushing the developed High to the East and SE next week while eroding it with SW winds and troughs of Low pressure. This theme is also shared by ECM which to be fair showed a similar evolution to this morning's run yesterday morning. It's left to GEM to fly the flag on some unusually warm weather extending North on the Western flank of the European High next week which would give some very pleasant weather in the SE late next week if it evolved as shown. So which is right? I think the carrot will continue to be dangled in upcoming runs on at least the possibility of some unseasonably warm weather towards the SE next week as the large Atlantic Low pressure sets up and brings the warm Southerly flow North. It's then left for the models to pin down the detail on how much the active Low to the West makes inroads into the UK with it's attendant wind and rain and how much of a fight the High to the SE puts up. So the only way to describe things for next week currently is to say that it will definitely become milder than currently for all and possibly warm in the SE. There will be the chance of rain at times too and this will mostly be focused on the North and West in the short term with the caveat that this 'may' spread to other areas too late in the forecast period. It will be interesting to see how the models play around with this deep Atlantic Low and European High over the coming days output with the UK as usual in the battleground between the two.

A bright morning but shower cumulonimbus in abundance to the North and NW of my patch this morning. Currently 6.6C (chilly) and a moderate westerly breeze.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY OCTOBER 7TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 8TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An unstable West or SW flow covers the UK with a deep Low approaching Western Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly becoming dry and quieter across the UK later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently lying across Northern France continues to be maintained to the South of the UK for the next 5-7 days. It then shows signs of disrupting somewhat and splitting with a Northern arm becoming the dominant part andheading to a position North of the UK in week 2 while a much weaker Southern arm lies across North Africa at the end of the run. GFS The GFS operational today offers two distinctly different weeks of weather to come with week 1 dominated by a deep low moving slowly NE over Ireland over the next 48 hours to lie as a slow moving feature close to Northern Scotland and filling slowly by the coming weekend. Pressure then gently rises from the SE as a mild SW flow develops for a time with some more rain in the North and West. By midweek pressure has risen strongly everywhere with a large Autumn anticyclone lying over the UK later next week with fine days and mist and fog at night and morning for many. A SE flow then develops across the South to end the run but dry weather would probably prevail. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are very supportive of it's operational this morning even in the further reaches of the run with a large UK based High pressure returning fine conditions for all by midway through Week 2 possiby with extensive overnight and morning mists and fogs in the very light winds. UKMO UKMO this morning shows our deep Low currently moving NE over the coming days over Ireland and Scotland to lie as a slow moving and filling feature near Northern Scotland at the start of next week. Winds will fall light but the weak Westerly airflow will remain unstable and very supportive of further heavy showers or outbreaks of rain in places across the UK. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show Low pressure to the West and SW with a complex array of troughs gradually transferring NE over the coming 4-5 days with the main centre lying close to the far North at the weekend as a much weaker feature as pressure rises slowly from the South. GEM The GEM operational today is dismissive of the GFS sequence of events as it goes the other way next week in suggesting a gradual return to deep UK based Low pressure with wind, rain and showers in abundance for all after a brief lull at the weekend. NAVGEM NAVGEM does look a little more like GFS as it shows a gentle rise of pressure from the South next week as deep Low pressure slips deeper into the Atlantic and lies further Wet away from us pushing a milder SW flow up across the UK next week with rain probably more rstricted towards the North and West with time as higher pressure lies to the SE. ECM The ECM operational shows a more integrated push towards the UK of deep Atlantic Low pressure next week with a deep centre lying not far to the NW of Ireland by midweek next week with a strong SW flow carrying troughs NE across the UK with wind and rain for all in temperatures recovering somewhat from current levels. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS GFS and to a lesser degree NAVGEM have turned more towards High pressure based weather pattern commencing next week but as yet this is not supported by the other output. MY THOUGHTS Some interesting switches in output this morning mostly from the American viewpoint as GFS has gone all out in switching from an unsettled and windy period next week to High pressure sat across the UK bringing fine and potentially foggy weather night and morning with quiet and bright days. It is well supported within it's own ensembles but less so from the other output. While the theory that leads to this happening is shown by other models too their thoughts gear towards the Atlantic being much stronger through week 2 than GFS shows with the net result that the milder and High pressure based surge shown is much more muted and while the South and East might benefit from less rain than elsewhere with warmer winds from the SW the North and West will probably see quite a bit of wind and rain as High pressure shown by most other European and the Canadian model output remains over the continental side of Europe. We must not discount the possibility of the output of GFS verifying especially since it has support from it's own ensemble pack but until this extends in a greater way to the other models it is subject to change over the coming runs and days. So my own thoughts this morning are to go with the majority this morning in saying that it looks like there will be more wind and rain next week following that of this week and although the emphasis of this will probably shift more towards the North and West if the GEM theory is right we will all be under attack from gales or in places severe gales and heavy rain later next week. However, I think that the ECM version this morning may be nearer the mark come the time.

A wet and windy webcam image here this morning with 10mm of rain so far and a gusty SSE wind.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY OCTOBER 7TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active trough will cross steadily East over the UK today with an unstable and showery WSW airflow following on behind across England and Wales. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in places later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream remains focused across the Atlantic to be over or to the South of the UK keeping all parts in the cool and unsettled trough like structure for the next week or so. After a brief lull in this early next week the flow re-strengthens strongly across Central UK tiwards the end of the period. GFS The GFS operational today offers a very unsettled and changeable period of weather over the next two weeks. This week's deep and slow moving Low gradually clears away NE next weekend leaving a slack and unstable flow from the West across the UK for a time before more Low pressure delivers more rainfall next week, gradually transferring more towards Northern and Western parts with gales as by the end of the run a deep Low pressure crosses East just to the North of the UK. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are supportive of the operational in Week 1 with better improvements shown towards the South and East for a time next week as pressure builds temporarily from the South and East. This is then replaced by more Low pressure again moving into the UK from the West to end the run with a return to wind and rain at times for all in blustery West or SW winds. UKMO UKMO this morning keeps a Low pressure belt stretching from the UK to Scandinavia next weekend with further rain at times especially over the South. It will feel cool too though wind strengths will of become less strong by then. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue a very disturbed and complex synoptic pattern all revolving around a deep Low just to the West of the UK by midweek. A series of troughs will affect the South most with heavy showers and more prolonged rainfall at times, some heavy. By the start of next weekend the Low is shown to begin to fill and drift slowly away NE. GEM The GEM operational today looks very Autumnal with little cessation of Low pressure close to or over the UK bringing repeated periods of rain and showers in sometimes cool conditions lasting throughout the next 10 days as the Jet Stream remains further South than normal. NAVGEM NAVGEM gradually takes the deep Low of this week gradually NE by next weekend with winds decreasing away and leaving drier and brighter conditions with a few showers at the weekend as pressure steadily rises. ECM The ECM operational shows a muted improvement at the weekend as the current deep low pressure zone finally fills and moves away NE. It isn't long though before more Low pressure moves in towards the NW with troughs sweeping East across the UK with more wind and rain for all at times next week. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS No real change from the previous trends of recent runs is shown today. MY THOUGHTS The thoughts of the models this morning seem generally supportive of the now more Autumnal type weather pattern under Atlantic Low pressure now continuing largely unchallenged over the next few weeks. There are as always exceptions to this general pattern and it looks like early next week may see a period of rather better weather towards the South and East for a time as pressure builds towards the South and East of the UK. This is by no means a guarantee and is generally chased away anyway by more unsettled and windy weather by the end of next week from those models that show such an improvement. Rainfall amounts will be varied but could be large locally as active troughs pass through or any local heavy showers occur this week. Winds will sometimes be strong especially midweek and perhaps again later next week but a quieter period looks very likely over next weekend. Temperatures though of course lower than of late may end up close to average overall with the coolest conditions within the areas of persistent rain and the warmest weather towards the SE later this week and perhaps again for a time next week though probably tempered by a strong SW breeze then. Fog and frosts will be generally restricted by often too much cloud and breeze so shouldn't be a major issue through the period. So all in all a typical changeable Autumn period of weather to come for all areas but away from the local wind gusts and downpours I can see nothing particularly noteworthy or disruptive on a nationwide level over the period.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY OCTOBER 6TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A ridge of High pressure will move away East out of Southern England with a strengthening Southerly flow ahead of an active cold and occluded front East across the UK tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in places later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream will remain in it's new Southern location near Southern England through this week before becoming more broken and ill defined on this side of the Atlantic through Week 2 though still with the strongest section in the West Atlantic heading towards quite Southerly latitudes. GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low moving down from the NW to a point just to the west of Ireland and then drifting it slowly NE later in the week but maintaining a trough back across the UK with increasingly cold air by next weekend. It then shows pressure gently recovering through Week 2 especially towards the North and East while SE winds and troughs affect Southern and Western Britain for a time. High pressure is then shown to centre near Northern Britain at the end of the run with cool, Autumnal and possibly mist conditions developing for many . THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar in theme with this weeks Low being replaced by High pressure over the UK through the start of Week 2 before strong SE winds and rain in association with deep Low pressure to the SW brings a return to wet and windy conditions late in the period. UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Northern Ireland on Thursday moving steadily away NE and filling but maintaining a broad and open trough over the UK with cool and showery weather continuing as a result leading into the weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure well in control of the weather over the UK through most of this week. The centre just to the West of the UK is shown to throw frequent troughs East across the UK with spells of wind, rain and showers for all through all weekdays in rather cool conditions overall. GEM The GEM operational today looks like staying very unsettled over the next 10 days with rain and strong winds featuring regularly as this weeks Low pressure moves away NE next weekend and becomes replaced by a strong Westerly flow over the Atlantic in association with more deep Low pressure near NW Britain at the start of week 2. NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later in the week finally bringing a brief ridge of High pressure across over next weekend with reducing amounts of showers as it does. Temperatures overall are shown close to or a little below the average. ECM The ECM operational is rather similar to GEM this morning in not supporting much of a ridge following this weeks Low. Instead it rolls in more deep Low pressure across the Atlantic with more gales and rain affecting all areas at the start of the second week. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Mixed messages remain the trend between the models today with the split between more mobile, windy and wet weather in week 2 challenged by quieter Anticyclonc conditions for a time by some other output. MY THOUGHTS Rather mixed output this morning in the longer term though we have 100% agreement on the course of events this week with a deep Low close to Western England early in the week tracking slowly NE later and filling while maintaining showers and longer spells of rain across the UK reducing somewhat by next weekend. There will be some strong winds at times especially near the coasts but these should die down later as some rather cool air filters down from the North. This is where the models differ with GFS in particular illustrating a shift towards High pressure and calmer Autumnal weather at least for a time before Low pressure to the SW becomes influential by the end of it's run. GEM and ECM though show a much more disturbed pattern being maintained through Week 2 as more deep Low pressure and attendant strong winds run in from the West to keep wind and rain very much a feature out to the end of the run. Which is right is hard to say at the moment but my money would be towards the thoughts of ECM as very cold air sliding South across the Norwegian Sea next weekend is likely to engage with milder Atlantic air setting up a new surge of deep Low pressure and spells of rain at times through the following week as we dip deeper into Autumn.

HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY OCTOBER 5TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will clear East out of Britain today followed by a ridge of High pressure over the South later. Later still sees a deep Low move SE towards Western Britain with a strengthening SW flow later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The change in positioning of the Jet flow is currently under way. It will settle blowing strongly across the Atlantic towards Southern England and the English Channel over the next week or so with somewhat more variability shown in week 2 though generally maintaining a latitude well South of recent levels, certainly over the Atlantic and NW Europe. GFS The GFS operational today shows a deep Low move down from the NW towards a point NW of ireland and then moves slowly NE late next week filling slowly. This will deliver quite a few days of windy and unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers for all. A quieter interlude then develops though still rather unsettled but with lighter winds bext weekend before Week 2 sees a return to wet and windy conditions in strong SW winds across the UK with deep Low pressure anchored to the NW. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar with much unsettled weather over the next few weeks. It does show a different scenario in Week 2 in that Low pressure is further South over the Atlantic later with a large and warm High pressure over Eastern Europe pumping some of that warm air North across Britain late in the period with most of the rainfall by then across the West. UKMO UKMO this morning has deep Low pressure near Western Ireland on Wednesday gradually transferring NE over the following 48 hours. This means that the weather across the UK will be very unsettled and wet at times with spells of rain and showers in strong winds too, all gradually becoming less pronounced towards the end of the week as the Low fills and moves away to the NE. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex zone of Low pressure developing just to the West of the UK next week. This is shown to be slow moving and throwing troughs of Low pressure East and NE across the UK regularly in cool and often blustery weather with showers and longer spells of rain for all areas, the latter most likely towards the South. GEM The GEM operational looks very Autumnal this morning with the deep Low pressure next week very slowly drifting North late in the week but only at the expense of a new centre moving in to replace it to maintain a Low complex close to the North with Westerly winds and rain and showers for all at times throughout the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM is also slow to remove Low pressure away from the UK later next week with the centre still over Scotland quite late next week with further Low pressure out in the Atlantic and a trough to the SW keeping the unsettled theme going beyond the period albeit not quite as windy as early next week. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and over the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure only slowly edging away North later and further Low pressure up to the NW driving further strong SW winds and rain across the UK late in the run there is little respite from the unsettled period apart from the thrust of the heaviest rain reverting towards the North and West later with some warmer winds affecting the South and East later. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend towards better weather in week 2 shown in yesterdays 00zs has been reversed somewhat this morning. MY THOUGHTS We are currently entering the first spell of seriously Autumnal weather across the UK this season as Low pressure becomes the driving force to the weather over the next couple of weeks. In the short term a deep Low looks very likely to be close to Western and Northern Britain for much of next week with plenty of rain and showers for all in blustery and much cooler conditions than of late. Most output then only shows slow moderation in these conditions as the Low fills and drifts slowly away North or NE. This still appears to leave an unstable if lighter Westerly flow with further rain in places before further Atlantic Low pressure rolls over from the West, probably on a slightly more Northern aspect bringing the heaviest rain and strongest winds to more Northern and NW areas with the South and East experiencing a chance at least of something a little drier and less cool as milder SW winds set up. The Jet Stream though seems to heave ratcheted up a copuple of gears over recent runs and this throws the risk of some active Low pressure areas at times throughout the next few weeks with the exception of a temporary reduction in strength next weekend. With High pressure sending some very warm air at times across Europe in the second week and the comparative cool Autumn air to the NW of Britain a spell of notably wet and windy weather in Week 2 looks possible over the higher ground of the North and West as the warm South or SW flow over the UK engages with the cooler air to the NW and gives rise to an active waving frontal zone somewhere over the UK. Something to watch for certain in week 2. However, having said all of this despite temperatures much lower than of late there is no distinctly cold weather on offer from the models today and it may well be that the South and East see above average temperatures return again if the moist SW or South flow develops in week 2 as hinted at this morning.

A dry start to the day but with a lot of cloud and a little more breeze than of late. Currently 13.9C

An unsettled and wet period next week is shown by all models but how long will it last. This is the highlight to discuss today i feel so in a simplistic text form here is my report on the models this morning. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY OCTOBER 4TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will move slowly but steadily SE across all of the British Isles over the coming 24-36 hours with a strong SW flow ahead of it veering West to NW behind the front. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A change in the position and orientation of the Jet stream is still shown as it exits Newfoundland and eventually Canada, crosses the Atlantic and over Southern Britain next weekend. It then dips sharply South over the Atlantic and back North to lie well North of NW Europe in the 10-14 day period. GFS The GFS operational splits into two halves with Week 1 showing the well documented slide into wet and windy conditions as Low pressure over or to the NW of the UK dominates conditions across all areas. This is followed by a switch to High pressure, firstly crossing the UK and then moving into Europe and extending a ridge back West across the UK with fine and dry weather with mist and fog night and morning becoming the main features of the weather in continuing cooler conditions than of late. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar in this resolve bringing drier and brighter weather back across the UK slowly through week 2 as the Jet flow returns North of Europe but a way South over the Atlantic in week 2. So a wet and windy week next week should slowly give way to less rain, calmer and quieter conditions again through the second week especially across the South and East. UKMO UKMO this morning maintains a deep Low complex close to or over the UK through the middle days of next week with frequent outbreaks of rain or showers, heavy at times in a generally cyclonic SW flow across the UK. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show an active and squally cold front crossing SE over the UK over tonight and Saturday with squally winds and heavy rain for a time. A ridge is then shown to give a quieter interlude across the South briefly before Low pressure and active troughs move in from the West with the active troughs crossing East over all areas to start next week with gales and heavy rain and showers for all, the longer spells of rain most likely across the South. GEM The GEM operational brings unsettled, often windy and wet conditions across the UK next week as Low pressure becomes deep and extensive close to or over Northern Britain with any improvements very slow as it only edges away slowly to the NE later filling slowly with higher pressure and drier conditions edging up across the UK from the SW next weekend and beyond. NAVGEM NAVGEM today is equally unsettled next week as a deep Low close to the UK brings spells of rain or heavy showers to all areas on most days. Pressure is also shown to rise slowly late in the week as the Low to the North fills though rain at times is still likely for most. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and over the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure only slowly edging away North later and some reinforcements shown to move up from the SW next weekend there looks less signs of High pressure becoming as dominant later as it's counterpart models with further rain and showers at times possible almost anywhere right out to Day 10. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is a slow growth in the theory of better conditions under High pressure returning to the UK in some shape or form after a week to 10 days of the coming unsettled and windy period. MY THOUGHTS Low pressure is going to be the main ingredients of the weather over the next week with all models supporting deep Low pressure moving down close to the West and North of the UK with spells of heavy rain and showers for all next week in temperatures much more seasonably average than of late, the feel accentuated by the wind. It's what happens thereafter which has shifted a little this morning towards at least a chance that drier and more benign weather could return over next weekend and beyond as High pressure rebuilds from the SW in response to a shift North of the Jet again over and to the East of the UK. The ECM model is less supportive of this theory and brings further Low pressure up over the UK from the warm waters to the SW with further rain at times to end it's run this morning and while I sense that there is a reasonable chance of improvements in conditions being viable there is a lot of ingredients over the Northern hemisphere next week which have to come together for that to happen and I feel we will see plenty of swings towards and away from better weather shown during the course of the output released over the unsettled and Autumnal period of the next week. One thing that is a given should any better weather develop after next weeks wet period it is unlikely we will see particularly warm weather return as with wet surfaces by then mists and fogs under any High pressure could become a major issue along with the seasonal increase in the incidence of frosts should skies clear. So today looks the last day that any outside tidying of gardens etc ready for the Winter can be accomplished unhindered by weather factors.

A quiet and benign start yet again here today with variable cloud cover across the sky. 11.4C Live webcam image available below

HERE IS MY LATEST TEXT ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 2ND 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 3RD 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An active cold front will edge SE across the far NW later with a strong to gale SW flow affecting the North ahead of it. A ridge of High pressure will be maintained across Southern Britain for the time being. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE All areas look like being unsettled and windy with rain at times in cool conditions. Possibly a little drier and less cool in the SE later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST A change in the position and orientation of the Jet stream is expected soon as it transfers SE to lie in a position from Greenland or Canada, across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain through next week and probably beyond. GFS The GFS operational this morning shows Low pressure in control of the weather across the UK over the coming couple of weeks as a deep centre drifts SE towards Western Britain and carrying troughs of Low pressure with wind and rain across all parts next week. Longer term improvements shown are slow this morning with further Low pressure and cool, rainy weather under further Low pressure coming up from the SW especially across the South before finally High pressure pushes a ridge across the UK from the East at the end of the period with a direr and brighter if cool interlude. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles remain supportive of it's operational through Week 1 with Low pressure close to northern Britain keeping things windy and wet at times next week with only slow improvements in Week 2 as a temporary ridge passes East ahead of further deep Low pressure across Britain to end the run in two weeks time. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deep Low pressure area having slipped SE from the NW to lie in a position close to Western Britain with basically SW winds and spells of rain and showers dominant across the UK through the first half of next week at least. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show an active and squally cold front crossing SE over the UK over tonight, tomorrow and Saturday with squally winds and heavy rain for a time. A ridge is then shown to give a quieter interlude across the South briefly before Low pressure moves down from the NW with active troughs crossing east and SE over all areas to start next week. GEM The GEM operational brings unsettled, often windy and wet conditions across the UK next week as Low pressure becomes deep and extensive close to or over Northern Britain with any improvements very slow as it only edges away slowly to the NE later filling slowly with further showery rain and quite cool conditions lasting all the way out to day 10. NAVGEM NAVGEM today is little different to the other output all supportive of a deep Low close to NW Britain delivering spells of rain and showers across the UK in blustery Westerly winds through the week and probably beyond. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and probably to the West of the UK next week with rain and wind at times for all. With the thrust of Low pressure slightly further West and lifting out North of the UK later as well as filling it does hold the chance that temperatures would be quite mild at times across the SE and holds a chance that rather less unsettled conditions could develop across the South and East with time. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is no change in the trend towards much more cyclonic based weather holding firm across the UK for all of the output term this morning though any marked improvements hinted at from some output longer term is more restricted to ECM this morning. MY THOUGHTS Low pressure is going to become the driving force of the UK weather over an undetermined time destiny this morning. The main thrust of Low pressure will arrive early next week from the NW, this following a brief but active transitional cold front finally ending the warm and static conditions the South of the UK have seen for so long with some heavy and squally rain. Once the main thrust of Low pressure arrives early next week it will be cool and windy with spells of rain or showers for all, some heavy. Longer term we still have embryonic signs of a pressure rise from the SE again in week 2 bringing drier, brighter and relatively mild weather back into the South and East later but this is a little more tempered this morning by the chance of further Atlantic Low pressure coming back in from the West later, shown by the GFS Ensembles and more restrictive to the extreme SE from ECM. So all in all a much more seasonal feel to things is just around the corner with the wind and rain accompanied by lower temperatures culminating together to produce quite a shock to the system for many, especially those living in the South.

Here's my Stats for Kilmersdon near Radstock for the month of September 2014 DATA TABLE FOR RADSTOCK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 2.9C(37F) on the 22nd at 07:00 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 23.7C(74F) on the 18th at 16:41 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 14.4C (58F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 97% on the 3rd at 06:21 LOWEST HUMIDITY 48% on the 9th at 14:19 WETTEST DAY 19.2mm(0.76inc) on the 18th HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 150.0mm/hr(6.00inc/hr) on the 18th at 22:30 TOTAL RAINFALL 23.8mm(0.95inc) DRY DAYS 25 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 16 Days (2nd-17th) HIGHEST PRESSURE 1028.1mbs on the 22nd at 01:51 LOWEST PRESSURE 1007.4mbs on the 18th at 16:24 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1019.4mbs PRESSURE RANGE 20.7mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 20mph on the 18th at 21:53 WIND BETWEEN S & W 7% WIND BETWEEN W & N 23% WIND BETWEEN N & E 20% WIND BETWEEN E & S 50% SUNNIEST DAY 10 hrs and 48 minutes on the 9th TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 104 hours and 18 minutes DAYS WITH NO SUN 3 Day on the 19th, 20th & 27th BRIGHTEST DAY 180.4w/sqm on the 2nd DULLEST DAY 42.7w/sqm on the 19th DAYS WITH THUNDER 1 Day on the 18th DAYS WITH HAIL None HOURS OF AIR FROST None DAYS WITH FOG 6 on the 3rd,10th,22nd,23rd,29th & 30th (14.5hrs) DAYS WITH SNOW None REPORT September was a very strange month overall. It was warmer than average but not seriously so here. Temperatures though always on the warm side of average by day never really got to anything exceptionally high but the longevity of the fine weather through the month made for a very pleasant feel to things. There were some chilly nights and the first Autumn fogs arrived too through the month totalling 14.5hrs of the early mornings. Patchy grass frost was recorded on the morning of the 22nd. Sunshine was somewhat above average reflective of High pressure based weather pattern. It was a drier than average month too with one notable excepton of the 18th when the months only active thunderstorm delivered nearly 20mm of rain in a few hours and there was some strong lightning accompanying this storm too but leaving this aside it was an exceptionally dry month. Winds were very light and I actually recorded a completely calm day in the sheltered location I now live in on the 29th. There was no other unusual weather phenomenon experienced through the period.

DATA TABLE FOR RADSTOCK FOR SEPTEMBER 2014 LOWEST TEMPERATURE 2.9C(37F) on the 22nd at 07:00 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 23.7C(74F) on the 18th at 16:41 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 14.4C (58F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 97% on the 3rd at 06:21 LOWEST HUMIDITY 48% on the 9th at 14:19 WETTEST DAY 19.2mm(0.76inc) on the 18th HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 150.0mm/hr(6.00inc/hr) on the 18th at 22:30 TOTAL RAINFALL 23.8mm(0.95inc) DRY DAYS 25 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 16 Days (2nd-17th) HIGHEST PRESSURE 1028.1mbs on the 22nd at 01:51 LOWEST PRESSURE 1007.4mbs on the 18th at 16:24 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1019.4mbs PRESSURE RANGE 20.7mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 20mph on the 18th at 21:53 WIND BETWEEN S & W 7% WIND BETWEEN W & N 23% WIND BETWEEN N & E 20% WIND BETWEEN E & S 50% SUNNIEST DAY 10 hrs and 48 minutes on the 9th TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 104 hours and 18 minutes DAYS WITH NO SUN 3 Day on the 19th, 20th & 27th BRIGHTEST DAY 180.4w/sqm on the 2nd DULLEST DAY 42.7w/sqm on the 19th DAYS WITH THUNDER 1 Day on the 18th DAYS WITH HAIL None HOURS OF AIR FROST None DAYS WITH FOG 6 on the 3rd,10th,22nd,23rd,29th & 30th (14.5hrs) DAYS WITH SNOW None REPORT September was a very strange month overall. It was warmer than average but not seriously so here. Temperatures though always on the warm side of average by day never really got to anything exceptionally high but the longevity of the fine weather through the month made for a very pleasant feel to things. There were some chilly nights and the first Autumn fogs arrived too through the month totalling 14.5hrs of the early mornings. Patchy grass frost was recorded on the morning of the 22nd. Sunshine was somewhat above average reflective of High pressure based weather pattern. It was a drier than average month too with one notable excepton of the 18th when the months only active thunderstorm delivered nearly 20mm of rain in a few hours and there was some strong lightning accompanying this storm too but leaving this aside it was an exceptionally dry month. Winds were very light and I actually recorded a completely calm day in the sheltered location I now live in on the 29th. There was no other unusual weather phenomenon experienced through the period.

After a little rain overnight a pleasantly sunny and mildish start to the day. 12.2C http://90.220.29.219:8150/

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 1ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 2ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Weak cold fronts will move SE across the British Isles today and tomorrow becoming slow moving across the South. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing largely benign this week with a lot of cloud and a little rain at times especially in the NW. Becoming more unsettled and cooler for all later with more widespread rain at times. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream currently flowing NE to the NW of Britain is soon to change it's orientation and position to lie close to Southern England over the weekend and next week flowing in a more Easterly direction and wavering slightly North and South of this position under a cyclonic pattern. GFS The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure close to SE Britain finally giving way to less settled weather from the NW in a few days time. By early next week a deep Low will of moved down from the NW and this brings wind and rain to all at times next week in much cooler air. The model run then continues very unsettled and sometimes windy weather from renewed and slow moving Low pressure over the UK moving in from the West by the end of the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles support the operational well this morning with the general message of Low pressure becoming dominant across the UK with spells of wind, rain and showers for all, heavy at times commencing from the weekend. There is jsut a weakening of the pattern shown right at the extremity of the run with pressure slowly rising across the UK from the South. UKMO UKMO this morning shows a deep Low pressure area having slipped SE across the UK to lie over the heart of England by next Tuesday with troughs and strong winds circulating it bringing spells of rain and showers to all in temperatures conssiderably lower than of late. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show weak cold fronts dissipating near Southern England over the next 36 hours with High pressure close by while a new surge of Atlantic energy in the shape of an active cold front moves in across the NW by Saturday and moves erratically SE to give all areas some heavy rain for a time before a temporary ridge moves across the South late in the weekend as pressure falls markedly to the NW by day 5. GEM The GEM operational brings deteriorating conditions from the NW too by the weekend with next week looking decidedly unsettled as Low pressure becomes slow moving across the UK with rain and showers at times in cool conditions. By the end of the run a Southerly element to the airflow could lift temperatures somewhat later especially towards the East. NAVGEM NAVGEM today is very similar to all other output setting the UK up to be home to a slow moving Low pressure next week with rain and wind at times for all in temperatures returning to average if not rather below at times in strong breezes. ECM The ECM operational maintains the basic theme of all other output in bringing a deep Low down towards and probably over the UK next week with rain and wind at times for. With the thrust of Low pressure slightly further West it does hold the chance that temperatures would be quite mild at times across the SE with a Southerly fetch for much of the time but overall it would feel much less warm than recently. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is no change in the trend towards much more cyclonic based weather holding firm across the UK for all of the output term this morning. MY THOUGHTS All models are once more very supportive of a change to a much more seasonal pattern of weather developing from the weekend across the UK. The change is well marked to occur from a cold front crossing SE on Saturday and introducing much cooler air with sunshine and showers following a band of heavy rain SE. Low pressure slipping down behind across the UK will enhance showers to longer spells of rain at times for all next week and with an air source from a point well North it will feel distinctly chilly when compared to what we have felt of late. In the longer term there is little evidence of any release from this pattern quickly with all models promoting pressure being relatively low and slow changing from this position once it arrives with further spells of rain and showers likely right through Week 2 with just the slightest hint that pressure may rise slowly from the South in 10-14 days time pushing the Jet flow back North slightly and bringing the most wind and rain back towards the North and West with longer drier spells then possible towards the South and East. This is a long way out though and should be treated only as a 'chance' of occurring at this range.

Well it's a misty and foggy start here today on what should be another very useable day. Currently 10.1C. My forecast for Somerset today can be found on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Mid-Term-Outlook(2770141).htm

Sorry for the delay in replying. What I mean is that when looking at a map of the UK the Jet Stream troughs South (turns South to the West of the UK) and then turns back North (to the East of the UK) creating a U shape image which in the Northern hemisphere means a trough or Low pressure lies within these parameters thus near to or across the UK and it was this that I was referring to persisting. Hope that helps.

Misty and foggy here today but dry. Live view available below.Temperatures currently 12.8C. No wind Todays Somerset forecast from me can be found here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Mid-Term-Outlook(2770141).htm

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY SEPTEMBER 29TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY SEPT 30TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack pressure gradient remains in place across the Brtish Isles with a front reaching NW Britain tomorrow and a shallow pool of instability in the upper atmosphere crossing NE over Southern Britain today. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Continuing largely benign this week with a lot of cloud and a little rain at times especially in the NW. Becoming more unsettled and cooler for all later with more widespread rain at times. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream remains positioned to the NW of Britain for much of this week before it troughs South over the UK next weekend and persists in this trough pattern close to the UK for most of week 2 with varying strengths. GFS The GFS operational this morning shifts High pressure steadily East and declines it later in the week as pressure falls across the UK from the NW. After a benign start to the period SW winds freshen everywhere late in the week with a much more unsettled feel to the weather everywhere across Britain in Week 2 with occasional rain or showers and fresh winds too lowering temperatures towards the seasonal average as Low pressure engulfs the UK or lies just to the West. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are symbolic of the operational through the first half of the run and while some continuation of occasionally wet and windy weather remains through Week 2 pressure is shown to be High to both the East and SW and a linking ridge could cut off the unsettled weather later with just the extremities North and South liable to see further showers in an otherwise return to more benign conditions again. UKMO UKMO this morning shows High pressure declining later in the week. After a weakening trough crosses East over Wednesday with just a little rain SW winds freshen more markedly by next weekend with more active fromts bringing rain SE across the UK by the end of the run with temperatures falling back towards average values. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts agree with the pattern of the raw data and remain unedited in any major way. Therefore the weather will be benign through the week but not discounting a little rain midweek as cold fronts are shown to slip SE. A ridge following shows a couple of drier and for some fresher weather days before wind and rain moves down from the NW under a more active SW flow by the weekend lowering temperatures then. GEM The GEM operational also manintains the trend shown by other output this morning with a shift away from the fine and quiet conditions of much of this week with just a little rain for a time midweek to a much more active weather pattern with a concoction of Lows and troughs circling the UK next week with rain at times along with fresh winds and temperatures generally much cooler than of late. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a decline in conditions by next weekend and the start to the new week with Low pressure becoming resident close to northern Britain with troughs swinging East in the flow. Temperatures will fall back to average after most of this week stays somewhat warm at times and winds will be much more noticeable. ECM The ECM operational today completes the set with unsettled and windy weather arriving from the NW by the weekend as a deep Low moves down across the UK giving strong cyclonic winds with spells of rain and showers in much cooler weather than of late to start next week. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is finally good cross model support for the trend to cooler and more unsettled, windier weather for all areas by the end of the week lasting through week 2. MY THOUGHTS The models continue to strengthen there trend towards a much cooler and more unsettled period of weather starting at the end of the working week and extending SE to cover all of the UK by the end of next weekend. Changes will feel marked as we have enjoyed some very protracted warmth and calmness to the weather of late so the increase in wind and more pronounced rainfall events will enhance the feel of the lower temperatures we will receive. The change of weather will move down from the NW and with the Jet buckling South to engulf the UK in a trough like form at the weekend and sustaining this pattern well into next week if not beyond. So once the unsettled weather arrives it will probably remain sustained, in particular as some cold air advecting West across Scandinavia next week is shown by several model runs this morning which once engaging with the unstable air over the UK could give rise to even more potent depressions towards the end of the period. However, as always there are always exceptions to this theory and the GFS Ensembles do show a return to High pressure as heights to the East and SW remain High possibly with a linking ridge over the UK late in the period to bring extensive mist and fog problems if that theory evolves rather than wind and rain. Having said all that this morning offers good overall support for Autumn proper to arrive next weekend with some decent amounts of rain and fresh breezes for most areas at times from then on with the much cooler feel of conditions becoming the main talking point as daytime temperatures fall some 5C or more from current daytime values across the South.

Good morning. A fine and quiet start here today and relatively mild at 11.1C. Here is todays Somerset forecast from me plus a copy of the Model analysis posted over on the Model Output thread. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Good morning folks. Here's my Sunday attempt of looking at the latest outputs of the models covering the next few weeks. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

No expected fog this morning as too much cloud. Currently 11.5C. For the benefit of those not wanting to delve into the model output thread. here's my publications this morning. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm