Gibby

Good morning folks. A new day but any changes in the models. Here's my version of how I see the 00zs. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Good morning folks. A drizzly damp start here with a very mild start too at 15.6C. My two daily publications on models and local forecasts can be seen below. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Good morning. The GFS Ensemble Pack are the highlights of this morning's 00z output. My thoughts can be read here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

OK. My apologies. I wish I had time to post on all platforms as there is a lot of like minded weather interested people out there with a lot of knowledge but I think it's here and TWO that host the best forums

A reasonable start to the day with some sunshine and a light wind from the West. Currently 12.1C. My thoughts for Somerset today can be seen here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Somerset-Weather-Forecast(2769473).htm

Good morning Netweather. I have been away for far too long what with a family crisis and a house move co-inciding together so apologies for that. I thought I would begin my return with sharing my daily thoughts on the 00zs from within my website at the moment available from the below link. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/NEW-Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Yes I did belong there for a while. Can't remember what happened but I know I got banned from one of the minor forums for some inexplicable reason but I can't be sure whether it was Metserv or not.

Hi fellow South-westerners. Sorry been absent or a long while. What with a very sick elderly Mum and a house move to deal with as well as trying to keep a business afloat been a bad year so far but will look forward to now returning to Netweather on a regular basis for the coming winter months. Why not start now with a look at current conditions here which are 17.5C in a NW breeze and broken cloud cover. A live view over my new village home is now available within my signature below which reverts to an infra red image overnight.

Well I think my patch has copped some of the worst of it for a change. Been thundering and lightning since about 11pm last night and apart from a lull from 2-4 it has come back again. I'm racking up a good rainfall total already today standing at 20plus mm as I type.

Just had a thunderbolt strike Radstock Town Centre. Not sure what it hit but sparks visibly flew everywhere down there. Deafening thunder as a result. Knocked webcams and Weather Station out for now I'm afraid.

Storm here in Radstock. Lots of lightning, thunder and short intense bursts of rain.

While at Kilmersdon 4 miles South not a spot

Not good here in NE Somerset too with thick cloud, no brightness, a cool ESE wind and nearly 10mm of rain today so far. Just 11C currently. Hardly surprising being that posters in the North and West of the thread zone report NNE winds, NW over Cornwall while here it's an ESE wind. I think the centre of Low pressure is making it's home over Devon currently.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 20TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure is positioned to the SW of the UK filling slowly and moving slowly back towards the SW. Two troughs straddle the UK, each weakening as they move North and NW over Northern Britain. GFS The GFS Ensembles show weakening Low pressure under slowly rising pressure as we move through the Bank Holiday Weekend. The weather likely would be a mix of sunshine and local heavy showers but a fair amount of dry weather too in average temperatures. Longer term indications suggest a continuation of quite quiet weather with light winds and occasional rain but a lot of dry, bright and reasonably warm weather too especially in the South and East. UKMO UKMO has moved towards rather higher pressure this morning over the Bank Holiday Weekend. As a result I can be more optimistic that such conditions will give rise to a decent spell of weather over the weekend for many with some showers too, local but heavy where they occur. GEM The GEM operational is more bullish about holding somewhat stronger Low pressure to the SE of the UK with a cool NE breeze and showery rain at times while the best weather holds out to the NW, close to a ridge extending NE from the Azores. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows shallow and showery Low pressure over England to start the weekend gradually lifting out of the UK as pressure builds gently from the SW. ECM also indicates rising pressure at the weekend meaning the weather as a whole may not be that bad for many over the Bank Holiday as the shallow Low over England fills up. Showers are possible in decreasing numbers day by day before a re-establishment of showery low pressure occurs later next week. MY THOUGHTS In general this morning there is good cross model support that the Bank Holiday Weekend weather may not be as bad as first thought. Pressure from most output is shown to rise, perhaps to in excess of 1020mbs at the weekend meaning any showers from the unstable upper air will be less widespread than indicated by yesterdays charts. Temperatures will be close to average generally but it will feel warm in the sunshine. Longer term and the models still show rather changeable weather with no definitive pattern indicated on this morning's chart. However, taken as a whole the weather will probably end up being non disruptive with plenty of dry, bright weather mixed in with cloudier and more showery periods and temperatures never straying far from the seasonal average.

Yes I agree with that. Nevertheless, the atmosphere is very volatile up there and I think thunderstorms could pop up almost anywhere at anytime over the next 12 hours or so as the airflow continues to pivot them NW.

Yes it's all firing off to the SW of the County right now. It should affect all parts at some point through the evening with some torrential bursts of rain accompanied by thunder and lightning but as always it's hit and miss whether it crosses over any one place. Looking pretty dark over the Mendips right now and with that classic warm wind from the SE blowing which nearly always seems to indicate a thundery breakdown is nigh. You can see the side elevation view of the thundery band currently across West Somerset from the East of the band as my webcam faces the Mendips. http://gibbyswebcam2.no-ip.biz:8002/

Sferics are now detected from that developing line towards South Devon. From my high vantage point here I can see the developing CB clouds on the SW horizon moving North some 70-80mls to the SW of me. My webcam doesn't quite pick it up due to the haze but it does show a good example of mid atmosphere instability with Altocumulus castellatus clouds developing widely in the strong warm sunshine. http://gibbyswebcam2.no-ip.biz:8002/

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 19TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure down to the SW of the UK will spill a warm but slack SE flow across the UK with a trough close to the SW generating some thundery rain at times, this moving slowly NE tonight. GFS The GFS Ensembles show Low pressure positioned over Southern Britain through the working element of this week. this will generate showers and some longer outbreaks of thundery rain across Southern and western areas in particular but as the week moves on nowhere is immune. as a result of extra cloud cover temperatures will fall somewhat through the week. Through the Bank Holiday weekend Low pressure tries to move away further north and NE with a slow rise of pressure across Britain. However, showers still look likely over the bank Holiday and beyond and it looks like things could warm up again later in Week 2. UKMO UKMO has slack Low pressure positioned near to Eastern and Northern Britain with pressure gradients slack over the UK. Instability in the atmosphere is likely to be responsible for slow moving and heavy, thundery showers with bright intervals through the Bank Holiday weekend with average temperatures. GEM The GEM operational shows a showery week to come as shallow Low pressure lies close by. Through the extended weekend showers will become more restricted towards the SE with pressure building towards the NW from the Azores with this rise of pressure extending to all areas next week with sunshine and rather warm conditions probably developing again later next week. NAVGEM NAVGEM also has low pressure close to the SE of the UK, albeit very slack and ill defined. It's presence though will be sufficient to generate showers over the bank Holiday weekend over England and Wales while Scotland look like falling under a ridge of High pressure with drier and brighter conditions here. ECM also shows Low pressure lifting away North out of Britain early next week though it may not be in time to prevent a largely showery weekend for many but it by no means shows a washout with plenty of dry and bright weather around between the showers under light cyclonic winds. Later next week with higher pressure moving in from the SW it may well become bright, dry and warmer again briefly especially across England and Wales before more showery low pressure moves down from the NW late next week. MY THOUGHTS Low pressure close to Southern Britain over the next 5-7 days look like maintaining the risk of thundery showers and outbreaks of rain at times with temperatures gradually subsiding slowly down though humidity will stay high. There is some support now though for Low pressure to gradually migrate North and East early next week allowing a ridge from the Azores High to re-establish itself towards England and Wales for a short time bringing dry and bright weather back though Atlantic fronts could affect the NW at times extending further South again late next week.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY 18TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure to the West and NW of the UK will pivot East on it's Southern flank to lie North to South close to Western Britain by tomorrow with a new Low forming towards the SW approaches later. Pressure will continue to fall steadily across the British Isles. GFS The GFS Ensembles show an unsettled week to come with the current very warm conditions tempered by outbreaks of showery rain driven by slack Low pressure areas close to SW Britain through the week. next weekend and week 2 shows a continuation of the showery theme with various areas of quite shallow Low pressure close to the UK continuing to generate showers while the trend towards the end of the run is for pressure to build from the SW and the weather to become drier and more settled. UKMO UKMO also shows slack and showery Low pressure maintained across the UK through the coming week and into the Bank Holiday weekend. Some heavy showers with thunder look likely and with little wind a lot of rain could fall from slow moving storms at times. After a very warm start temperatures look like slowly returning to average by day though humidity could remain quite high. GEM The GEM operational shows a good week's worth of shallow Low pressure close to or over the UK with heavy, showery outbreaks of rain at times before a temporary rise in pressure across the North and East promotes a drier phase perhaps over the Bank Holiday weekend. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows n such rise of pressure next weekend and with shallow Low pressure through the coming week too heavy showers are likely for all areas at times and this could be accompanied by longer spells of rain too next weekend, especially in the South where it may feel rather cool by then. ECM looks broadly similar to last night's offering with Low pressure through this week maintaining very showery conditions, heaviest and most widespread towards the South and west with the very warm weather slowly ebbing away over the next few days. Later in the run as Low pressure moves North cooler Atlantic SW winds look likely to develop through next weekend and Week 2 with some cloud and rain at times with the emphasis for this shifting more towards the North and West with the driest and brightest weather then most likely towards the South and East. MY THOUGHTS The very warm conditions still present for some at the beginning of this week will continue to ebb away and by midweek shallow Low pressure zones to the SW of the UK will bring all areas a mix of bright spells and heavy, thundery outbreaks of rain for the remainder of the week and well into the Bank Holiday weekend. The humidity will be high and though days will be cooler night's will continue fairly warm for most. With time the longer term trend remains for most of the output to try and shift the axis of Low pressure further North and East and as a result showery rain will affect more Northern areas while the South and SE may become drier and warmer again through next week although there are some exceptions to this trend which maintain a showery picture under further shallow Low pressure. Any return to the current High pressure early Summer type weather type does look unlikely from the output shown this morning.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY 17TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure will decline slowly across Southern Britain while a cold front continues to move very slowly East across Northern and far Western areas tomorrow. GFS The GFS Ensembles pack indicate slack Low pressure sets up towards the SW of England towards the middle of the week with outbreaks of rain carried across the UK on a warm Southerly wind. Later in the week and through week 2 changes look quite slow with slack and showery Low pressure never far away from the UK maintaining the risk of heavy Springtime showers mixed in with some warm sunshine. UKMO UKMO ends it's run with Low pressure elongated from a position NE of Scotland SW to a slack and broad trough to the SW of the UK. With light winds across the UK next weekend further showery rain will be scattered about with average temperatures but with some bright, warm and humid weather at times too. GEM The GEM operational maintains the trend towards Low pressure across the UK later this week with rain and showers in places before it trends towards a pressure rise from the SW later with drier and brighter weather extending NE across Britain in Week 2 with average temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps slack low pressure areas to the South next weekend with the South at risk from further showers while the North becomes drier and brighter under a weak ridge of High pressure. ECM today maintains a showery week to come under Low pressure to the SW culminating next weekend in a strong build of pressure over Europe which in turn maintains Low pressure to the West of the UK. This would mean quite warm conditions persisting but with further outbreaks of rain and showers, these chiefly in the West and SW, heavy at times. Later in the output Low pressure remains well in control crossing the UK with cooler and still unsettled weather likely to continue for many with perhaps some cooler air in tow as winds turn more SW. MY THOUGHTS Today's charts continue to interpret showery weather as the main theme across the UK as slack Low pressure to the SW remains a dominant player in the weather for the next week or so. With the Low being to the SW the weather should remain reasonably warm and humid feeling in SE winds between the showers and thunder is a strong possibility for almost anywhere through the next week as a result. Longer term there seems little general consensus to bring an end to this pattern anytime quick with Low pressure remaining close by with High pressure locked over Eastern Europe although there is a minority of output that shows at least a chance of pressure building somewhat from the SW late in Week 2.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 16TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving across Southern Britain while NW Britain sees a waving front to the NW with SW winds ahead of it and occasional rainfall over NW Scotland. GFS The GFS Ensembles show Low pressure becoming the dominant player in the UK weather over the next few weeks. It sinks South to a position SW of the UK for a while before filling slowly as it drifts over the UK late next week. as a result thundery rain and showers will be frequent and heavy especially in the South and west with a lot of warm and humid air in tow for many. Longer term the model continues to feed slack low pressure areas across the UK at times with further showers and probably slightly cooler conditions. UKMO UKMO ends it's run with Low pressure anchored close to SW Britain with a slack Southerly flow extending outbreaks of rain and showers across the UK, heavy and thundery in places especially towards the South and West. After a warm start to the week temperatures will fall back through the week but the humidity will be quite high. GEM The GEM operational shows low pressure to the SW of the UK too for much of next week with bands of rain or thundery showers spilling North over the UK in humid air. Later on the Low pressure will cross NE over the UK with cooler and fresher air developing later as showers decrease in response to High pressure building from the SW. NAVGEM NAVGEM still shows Low pressure down to the SW early next week before it crosses NE across the UK and NW Europe later next week. As a result showery weather seems likely with slack winds and some thundery showers at times with some warm and bright intervals as well at times before things begin to cool down somewhat later as light winds turn NW. ECM today shows a showery start next week as Low pressure becomes established to the SW of the UK. With South or East winds from Europe wafting up across the UK, it most likely will stay warm and humid away from North Sea coasts. This would probably result in thundery outbreaks carried North at times with nowhere immune and this process looks like being maintained throughout the week and into next weekend as slack Low pressure continues to remain close to UK shores. MY THOUGHTS This morning's output still show a slow dip into more unsettled weather next week. This will be most felt across SW areas of the UK but will occasionally affect other areas too. Low pressure is shown to lie to the SW of Britain for much of next week with relatively warm and humid air wafting up across the UK encouraging some thundery weather at times. Through the later stages of this morning's output there seems a gradual trend to shift the Low pressure either NE or East across the UK with a slack pool of unstable air remaining close to the UK encouraging further heavy and thundery showers at times as well as lowering temperatures away from the warm category towards more average temperatures for most late in the period in a more Westerly flow.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY 15TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure remains slow moving across Southern Britain while NW Britain sees a waving front to the NW with SW winds ahead of it and occasional rainfall over NW Scotland. GFS The GFS Ensembles shows a generally unsettled week next week as Low pressure slips South down over Western Britain towards the SW. It then looks like continuing to rotate around the UK for some considerable time always promoting rain and thundery showers across Britain, especially towards the South and West. Changes longer term look slow with a gentle rise of pressure gradually reducing the risk of rain later in maintained rather humid and sometimes warm conditions. UKMO UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure well in control to the west of the UK, probably positioned over Ireland and the SW approaches. With Southerly winds it is likely to stay rather warm in any bright spells with rain being heavy and thundery at times as a result, especially towards the South and West. GEM The GEM operational today continues to show slack Low pressure areas close to or over the UK from Day 6 to day 10 with frequent thundery showers across the UK with some warm sunshine in between and winds relatively light. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows Low pressure down to the SW early next week before it elongates NE across the UK and NW Europe later next week. As a result showery weather seems likely with slack winds and some thundery showers at times with some warm and bright intervals as well at times. ECM today shows a showery start next week as Low pressure becomes established to the SW and West of the UK. With Southerly winds from Europe wafting up across the UK, especially the East it would likely stay warm and humid. This would probably result in thundery outbreaks carried North at times with nowhere immune and this process looks like being maintained throughout the week and into next weekend. MY THOUGHTS Today's output continues to show Low pressure becoming the dominant player next week. However, the trend to push the Low more to the West has increased the chance of things staying rather warm across the UK next week with the rain becoming more showery in nature. With Southerly winds thunder is a distinct possibility at times almost anywhere next week and with some bright and sunny intervals between the showers it could feel very warm and humid at times. The longer term projections from GFS and GEM today suggest a continuation of rather unsettled and showery conditions with Low pressure never far away meaning further rain and showers for all possible and with the propensity for Low pressure to shift more towards the NW of the UK the resultant switch of winds towards the West and SW it could turn a little cooler with time.

Yes I agree John. High temperatures are not highly likely next week imo from todays output. Warm uppers at times yes but high humidities will mean a lot of cloud generally and rain to boot at times for many. I think the best temperatures could end up in the Westand NW of scotland if an ESE flow sets up. With humid air in tow these areas could see some fair weather while conversely near the North Sea could be dull and cold with sea fog and low cloud for much of the time.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY 14TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. An anticyclone will build across Southern Britain through today and tomorrow while a warm front is expected to cross NE across NW Britain later today and tonight. GFS The GFS Ensembles indicate an area of low pressure slips South across western Britain to lie to the SW of the UK for several days with outbreaks of rain for many but principally across more Southern and Western Britain. As days pass details become difficult to pin down but with the lack of any significant High pressure shown and quite slack conditions overall further showers or outbreaks of rain can be expected at times but with some dry and brighter weather too in places, especially towards the East. UKMO UKMO shows the start of next week with Low pressure re-established across the UK with showers or longer spells of showery rain again with winds generally becoming a gentle Southerly or SE'ly and temperatures returning to nearer to average due to the increase of cloud cover. GEM The GEM operational today shows Low pressure settling down towards the South of the UK through next week with unsettled weather for many delivering rain and showers for all, perhaps more especially towards Southern Britain. Temperatures would return close to average with a chilly wind off the North Sea for a time across more NE areas. NAVGEM NAVGEM develops Low pressure further to the SW next week keeping the most unsettled and sometimes wet weather more towards the South and West while Northern and Eastern Britain stay drier and brighter in the NW but with a cool and cloudy North Sea breeze over Eastern Scotland and NE England. ECM today shows Low pressure spiraling around to the SW of Britain through next week sending troughs North and East over Southern and Western Britain in particular with rain and showers in these areas as a result. Though also likely to see some rain at times Northern and Eastern parts may see the best chance of seeing longer drier periods but a chilly North Sea breeze will affect North Sea coasts at times. MY THOUGHTS Today's output continue to model Low pressure becoming influential over the UK for the period commencing from later this Sunday. With the majority of output suggesting Low pressure becoming slow moving close to SW Britain will probably mean the heaviest and most persistent spells of rain and showers will affect more Southern and Western Britain. Northern and Eastern parts look like they could miss at least some of the rainfall with the chance of something drier and warmer at times though with a flow from the East or SE here North Sea coasts could become plagued by dull and chilly North Sea haar conditions with the NW of Scotland being probably the warmest area at times. Longer term this morning Low pressure looks to hold control in one form or another near the UK with a continuation of outbreaks of rain and showers scattered about across the UK with little sign of anything reliably like high Summer shown as yet.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 13TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak and shower NW flow will ebb away today as High pressure steadily builds into the UK from the SW tonight and tomorrow. GFS The GFS Ensemble pack today indicate the fine period towards the end of next week and the start of the weekend will give way to Low pressure moving SE across the UK to start next week. Rain and showers will develop for many on Sunday and continue to affect the UK through next week. The rest of the run shows the ensemble pack continuing to show at best showery weather for many with plenty of shallow Low pressure around the UK though with conditions warming over Europe it could become rather humid later over the UK. UKMO UKMO shows Low pressure sinking slowly SE towards the UK at the end of the coming weekend with a UK trough delivering outbreaks of rain and showers as well as lowering temperatures back to average levels in winds from the SW or West. GEM The GEM operational is somewhat different than the rest with Low pressure settling more towards being to the South of the UK while higher pressure develops towards the far North of Britain keeping things drier there while Southern areas see a cool and cloudy easterly breeze with outbreaks of rain at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM continues to show Low pressure slip down into the UK from the NW later next weekend with rain and showers developing for all to start next week. ECM today shows it's operational run has moved in line with it's recent ensemble pack by dropping Low pressure down across the UK from the North late next weekend and maintained through much of next week. Rain at times will be commonplace for all areas as a result with some drier and brighter spells mixed in with temperatures returning close to average generally. MY THOUGHTS For those looking for a sustained period of fine and warm weather following it's intervention into this showery Spring late this week had better look away now as by the end of the weekend and certainly next week Low pressure will move down across the UK on Sunday and though next week. There are a few differences in the extent of low pressure shown but the general message remains the same from all models in that all areas can expect some rain at least from Sunday on and through most days of next week as Low pressure settles close by to the UK. Looking into the far reaches of the output this morning there are embryonic signs that it may become slightly warmer, more humid and less showery in 2 weeks from now but there is little cross model agreement on any definitive weather type shown for then this morning.