Gibby

Just had a very heavy hail shower here with some quite large hail for a time driven down by a squally wind from the WNW. Quite unusual for us to get daytime late Spring/Summer showers here as the Bristol Channel often protects us due to the cool wind off the sea limiting convection. I guess the air is deeply unstable at the moment. Current skyscape can be seen from the WSW webcam within signature below.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 12TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure will continue to move away NE over the North Sea with a showery but weakening Westerly flow across the UK veering NNW tomorrow as High pressure approaches from the WSW. GFS The GFS Ensemble pack today show that after the improvements of later this week the weather turns unsettled and cooler again as Low pressure slips down across the UK and becomes slow moving. Cyclonic winds will deliver rain and showers for all at times with a slow trend again for improving weather as we look further out towards the Spring Bank Holiday weekend. UKMO UKMO shows SW winds developing across the UK next Sunday as pressure falls with rain in the NW gradually extending SE to other Northern and Western areas through Sunday and no doubt on to all areas to start next week. GEM The GEM operational shows the deterioration much more restricted to Southern and Western areas as High pressure holds further to the NE and low pressure lies much further west and SW than the models counterparts. As a result Southern and Western areas will see rain while northern and Eastern areas stay drier with some brighter spells in a SE flow. NAVGEM NAVGEM continues to show Low pressure slip down into the UK from the NW later next weekend with rain and showers developing for all to start next week. ECM shows Low pressure slipping South close to western Britain early next week with rain and showers for all, heaviest and most widespread towards the South and West. Towards the end of it's run the Low fills to the west and pressure begins to rise again with a suggested improvement to drier, brighter and warmer weather again and just well scattered showers by 10 days time. We need to see the ensemble data later to endorse this as a trend or not. MY THOUGHTS All models continue to predict the improvements later this week as a three or four day event before Low pressure moves down towards the UK from the NW at the end of next weekend. What is less clear is the path this Low pressure takes. Some output brings it down over the UK with rain and showers for all as a result while some other output suggests the Low moves South further to our West restricting the resulting unsettled weather towards more Southern and Western parts in a Southerly breeze. As we look further out towards the Spring Bank Holiday weekend current indications suggest the weather could become rather brighter, warmer and drier again with some sunshine and just well scattered showers.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY 11TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Low pressure over the North Sea will fill slowly as well as move slowly away NE. A broad showery trough will continue to lie across Northern Britain with a weakening but currently strong Westerly flow over the South. GFS The GFS Ensemble pack today show that after the improvements of later this week the weather slides downhill again, most likely from the North with a showery and cool flow giving way to Low pressure across the UK with rain at times with subdued temperatures, a trend that lasts some while before the clarity of what happens after that become diffuse and less clear cut. UKMO UKMO shows High pressure declining across Southern Britain next Saturday with fine and dry weather here while Northern parts are cloudier and more unsettled with some rain. This rain looks like it would edge down across the UK later next weekend as High pressure continues it's decline. GEM The GEM operational also shows pressure falling slowly next weekend following the improvements of the week. However, it shows the resulting Low pressure much more to the west today which 'could' result in better weather hanging on more in Northern and Eastern areas while any rain becomes most likely towards the South and West instead of a general UK wide event. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the pattern as before with Low pressure removing the High pressure over the South next weekend bringing a return to rain and showers to most parts from the NW by Sunday. ECM this morning is somewhat different with the Low pressure moving down from the NW as before but on a more Westerly trajectory bringing unsettled and wet conditions to the South and West for a time while Northern and Eastern parts largely escape from the most unsettled period though it could become chilly and cool as winds switch to the East. There are then signs of pressure recovering again towards the end of this morning's operational run with a showery slack flow in humid weather likely should this morning's run verify. MY THOUGHTS There are small but subtle differences in the evolution of the outputs as we enter the weekend and following week. Though most output continue to show Low pressure of some sort returning down from the NW over next weekend the track of the Low is far from settled with some output including ECM holding a cell further West which could keep Northern and Eastern parts rather drier than originally thought while the South and West become most at risk of rain and all areas becoming under a more Easterly flow for a time. Longer term no strong trends are shown today with most long term output suggesting slack pressure around the UK indicative of no strong signals to one weather type or another.

Seems good agreement within the ensembles from ECM for a breakdown too next weekend and beyond. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY 10TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A strong Westerly flow will cover the UK today with a parent low moving slowly East across the North of the UK into the North Sea tonight and tomorrow. GFS GFS shows High pressure building strongly across the UK through the middle of next week with some warm sunshine developing midweek, especially across the South. After several days of this settled warm weather cloudier conditions on SW winds never leaving the NW is shown to sink South across all areas next weekend as Low pressure re-establishes itself in the vicinity of the UK with cooler weather and rain at times. in the far reached of this mornings run there is some evidence of quieter warmer conditions returning as pressure rises again. UKMO UKMO shows High pressure from Denmark to Southern England with sunny and warm conditions hanging on across Southern Britain. Cloudier weather further North seems to be showing signs of edging South towards the South later with some rain likely I would feel before the weekend. GEM The GEM operational also shows a rise of pressure bringing warm and settled weather around the mid to latter part of next week before it too shows a propensity for Low pressure to edge down from the NW just to the west of the U|K with the threat of rain returning to many areas ever increasing next weekend. NAVGEM NAVGEM also follows the GEM route with a fine few days later next week being eroded away from the NW as we move into next weekend with some rain moving SE. ECM shows High pressure building across the South midweek before cloud and rain on deepening Low pressure slips down across the UK next weekend to bring wet and windy conditions alternating with sun and showers in blustery Westerly winds again as we move towards the second week. MY THOUGHTS All models support a brief but pleasant spell of dry, fine, warm and possibly sunny weather for a period between midweek and next weekend. However, all output suggests that this weather type comes under attack quite quickly from developments out to the NW as Low pressure looks like trundling down towards the UK with a return to rain at times in a strong and blustery Westerly flow. For a few days and principally in the South it could well feel like Summer in the South later next week but overall any long lasting and universal spell of Summer weather across the UK looks some way off still this morning with the Atlantic continuing to show it holds sway with regard to the weather across the UK as we approach the end of Spring.

My thoughts are backed up by the Meto update today though. It would be wrong for me to say something other than what is shown when taking all models and ensembles as a percentage likelihood and that is why I was not surprised by the update from UKMO today.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 9TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A fresh to strong and showery westerly flow cover the UK South of Northern Scotland. Late today and tonight the flow will back SW as a warm front moves quickly NE into SW areas by tomorrow morning. GFS GFS shows changeable weather continuing at the start of the coming week as Low pressure eases away NE at the expense of a strong rise of pressure from the South or SW. High pressure is then expected to build across the UK late next week giving a spell of fine and settled weather with some warm sunshine for many. Then later in the period pressure falls again as the High recedes away West with a cool and unsettled north or NW flow developing later with heavy showers returning. UKMO UKMO is looking much better this morning as High pressure builds across Southern Britain midweek with resultant dry and fine weather developing for many Southern areas where it will feel much warmer by then. Further north a SW flow may spoil the improvement with moist winds delivering cloud, light rain and hill fog in places here. GEM The GEM operational is much more restrictive in the extent of improvements from the South next week with Southern England and South wales alone looking like seeing any major improvements where it will become warmer, less wet and breezy but rather cloudy midweek before next weekend and beyond sees all areas return to changeable and sometimes wet weather as the Atlantic depressions push High pressure out of the South with ease. NAVGEM NAVGEM is rather better with the developed ridge stretching NE across Southern Britain midweek maintaining a stronghold into next weekend with all of England and Wales becoming dry and warm with plenty of sunshine while only Scotland, especially the NW maintains moist SW winds and cloudy and damp weather. ECM also shows an interlude of fine and bright weather especially across the South through the middle and end of next week before all areas come under more attack from Low pressure to the North as a result of High pressure to the West receding away West. Fine weather would then be replaced by cloudier and cooler weather with rain at times especially towards the North and East. MY THOUGHTS This morning's model output shows more uniformity between the models in relation to an improvement of the weather soon after the start of next week particularly in the South. Under High pressure there would be some warm sunny spells developing across the South while the North hangs on to more cloud and dampness in the far NW. There are strong trends though towards such an improvement being just a transitory phase ahead of more Low pressure intervention pushing down from the NW later in the period as High pressure migrates away and Westerly winds and occasional rainfall events return almost anywhere.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY 8TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Troughs of low pressure are crossing East over England and Wales today. Scotland lies under a more showery but light Westerly flow and this will spread to all areas tonight behind a cold front. GFS GFS continues to project unsettled conditions for the next week with the better conditions shown yesterday put back by several more days as another depression and associated front cross the UK later next week with further rain and wind at times. In it's later days the run suggests pressure rises of sorts over the UK though sustained fine weather for any one place is not guaranteed with Low pressure shown to continue to brush close to UK shores at times both towards the North and South. UKMO UKMO is still looking very disturbed through next week with Low pressure continuing to be dominant across the UK with rain or showers at times in a sometimes blustery WSW wind in average temperatures at best. GEM The GEM operational develops better conditions later next weekend as High pressure builds up from the South bringing drier and brighter conditions generally with the centre relaxing across Southern Britain by 8-10 days time bringing drier and much warmer weather for most away from the NW. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure building North just to the West and SW of the UK in a week or so with the unsettled weather giving way to dry and brighter weather with some sunshine for all by the end of the run but with a chill North breeze possible towards the NE. ECM continues to be the joker of the pack with a much stronger rise of pressure North through the middle of next week pushing the Low that other models show moving East over the UK much further to the NW restricting it's influence to the NW while Southern areas become drier and warmer from Wednesday. However, it is much less marked than yesterday with a SW flow maintained to the NW which extends SE late in it's run on a band of rain and a trough before the end of the run suggests renewed and cooler High pressure pushing in from the West temporarily though pressure on this from the NW looks high again by Day 10. MY THOUGHTS This morning's output continues to show rising pressure across the UK later next week following another 5-7 days of very unsettled and breezy weather with rain at times and cool conditions. The marked improvements shown by ECM in recent runs is not unexpectedly less pronounced this morning as the High pressure rise from the South becomes stalled from pressure from a SW flow over the NW. However, despite all this there is still enough cross model evidence to suggest something of an improvement towards less Atlantic driven weather as we move through the middle of the month with some dry and bright weather around for many though suggestions of high Summer being likely still look a fair way off this morning.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY 7TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A showery SW to West flow cover the UK with embedded showery troughs moving East across Northern Britain. A new Low pressure will move towards the West of the UK tomorrow with attendant troughs moving NE over Southern and Western Britain. GFS GFS maintains unsettled conditions for some while yet as Low pressure from off the Atlantic remains the driving force over the weekend and into next week too. There is a slow transgression into the chance of brighter and drier weather creeping up from the South or SE to affect some places with warmer conditions later. However, it's ensembles and operational is thwart from risks of further Low pressure intervention later which could mean more unsettled weather, perhaps more likely towards the South and West and it could begin to feel rather humid. UKMO UKMO is showing unrelenting Low pressure feeding across the Atlantic into the UK well into next week with rain and showers at times for all in blustery west or SW winds and temperatures little better than average at best. GEM The GEM operational develops better conditions later next week as High pressure slowly builds up from the South bringing drier and brighter conditions generally though with a cool NE breeze across the South later which looking at last night's ensemble data could develop further over the UK with unsettled weather too across the South. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High pressure building North over the Atlantic towards midweek next week with a chilly Northerly flow over the UK promoting a sunshine and heavy shower mix in rather cool weather outside of the sunshine. ECM is again in Summer mode this morning as it's operational further develops High pressure across the UK later next week As a result with a large 1035mb High across the UK fine and increasingly warm weather would develop with plenty of sunshine away from North Sea coasts. It'e prominence towards this nationwide Summer type needs to be supported by it's ensemble data released later. MY THOUGHTS This morning's output continues to show rising pressure across the UK later next week following another 5-7 days of very unsettled and breezy weather with rain at times and cool conditions. The improvements then should take place from midweek but the extent and depth of such an improvement is far from clear. We have the ECM operational showing us a full blooded Summer setup by the end of it's run with intense High pressure positioned across the UK while other models including the UKMO shows less inclination to build the ridge leading to this setup early next week. With mixed output from the other models shown it maybe we have to wait several more days before the chance of anything resembling high Summer becomes anymore than a chance with plenty of wind and rain to get through yet before we get there.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY TUESDAY 6TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A broad and showery SW flow will extend to all areas today between Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the South. The pressure gradient over the UK will increase over the next 24 hours meaning an increase in strength to the flow. GFS GFS shows a continuation of SW winds and rain at times as further Atlantic depressions and fronts cross East over or just to the North of the UK. In it's lower resolution portion of the run there is still a suggestion of rather better weather, at least across Southern and Eastern parts as High pressure moves up close to the South or SE. However, there is an equal suggestion that Low pressure areas will never be far enough away to prevent the risk of at least a little rain in places even then, most likely towards the NW. UKMO UKMO has the end of it's run with the UK bathed on a chilly WNW or NW flow with a mix of cool, bright conditions and sunshine and showers. Pressure is shown to be building strongly over the Atlantic and a ridge is likely to bring better weather in from the West as we move into next week. GEM The GEM operational develops this ridge as it moves into the UK next week with a gentle settling down of conditions especially across the South. The end of the week looks like a NW/SE split develops with some rain at times in the NW while Southern and Eastern Britain could become bright and quite warm in balmy SW winds. NAVGEM NAVGEM looks very vulnerable as the ridge suggested by the other models quickly breaks down in this run with Low pressure replacing it quickly from the SW maintaining a very unsettled and sometimes wet feel at the end of its run. ECM goes all out today to show the chance of our first taste of summer as High pressure builds strongly over southern Britain later next week, this following a week of blustery SW or West winds and rain and showers at times. Should this run verify temperatures would comfortably reach the low to mid 20's across the South and SE by soon after midweek while the NW though better could still see the risk of a little rain in a continued SW breeze. MY THOUGHTS This morning's output shows another week of unsettled weather to come as we continue to be attacked by West or SW winds and rain at times with Low pressure close to the North. Then a more concerted effort from the models, especially ECM shows that things could markedly improve next week as High pressure builds up across Southern Britain from the SW. Such an improvement is most likely to be felt across Southern areas while the NW as usual in pressure rises from the SW are last to see any improvements if indeed they occur at all. Nevertheless, there is sufficient evidence in the charts and ensembles now to at least give reasonable confidence of the chance of rather pleasant conditions at least just over a week away.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 5TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A Southerly flow is developing across the UK with an active front moving steadily East into western areas later today and further East tonight clearing Eastern Britain tomorrow morning. A showery WSW flow will develop thereafter. GFS GFS continues to indicate the UK being under a broad West or SW flow with spells of rain and showers as Low pressure areas and attendant trough cross West to east over the UK through the next week or so. Thereafter indications of High pressure becoming a feature over the UK continues to be highlighted with this morning's ensemble charts suggesting this be of greater importance to Northern and Eastern parts while Low pressure remains a threat to Southern and Western areas at times. UKMO UKMO is very unsettled this morning from later today to the end of day 6 with showers or longer spells of rain for all of the UK at times in a blustery West or SW breeze as Low pressure areas continue to cross west to East to the North of the UK. GEM The GEM operational shows the same unsettled period shared by the other models and moves forward between Days 6-10 with drier and warmer conditions slowly developing from the South as High pressure from the Azores moves towards Southern England. In 10 days time this suggests that any further cloud and rain will continue only in the far North and NW. NAVGEM NAVGEM loks unsettled and breezy with rain and showers throughout with Low pressure never far away from the UK in fairly average temperatures. ECM today looks more optimistic again as we move out of next weekend and through next week as it has re-introduced the prospect that High pressure builds up from the SW later next week with some fine and warm weather possible for Southern areas at least. In the meantime though we have a lot of disturbed weather to get through with rain and showers in a blustery West or SW wind in association with Low pressure close to Northern Britain for the next week at least. MY THOUGHTS Through the period we have a very unsettled period to get through with showers or longer periods of rain with Low pressure close by to the North of the UK. Once again this morning GFS shows improvements later in this run and I can report that this has again spread to GEM and ECM's operational models this morning which of verified the trend would be for Southern Britain in particular to become dry, brighter and warmer later next week with any rain becoming more restricted to the far NW. However, we have to be mindful that this is still well over a week away and there is plenty of time for these weather improvement suggestions to evaporate as has happened a few days ago.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SUNDAY 4TH MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Pressure remains High across Southern Britain today while a warm front over Northern Britain gradually weakens and moves away North tonight. A cold front moves East towards Western Britain tomorrow in a freshening SSE flow. GFS GFS shows unsettled conditions developing by late Monday and persisting for most of the run with Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic in the region of the North of Britain pulling troughs East over the UK with spells of rain alternating with more showery interludes. The trend is for this weather type to persist for 10 days or so before drier and warmer conditions develop as High pressure develops to the South and East of the UK by the end of the run. UKMO UKMO today shows changeable weather through the week with showers and outbreaks of rain on a series of fronts and Low pressure crossing East close to the North of Britain through the working week. Some drier spells look likely too at times as transitory ridges intersect the areas of rain and showers at times. GEM The GEM operational brings occasional rain and showers across the UK through the next week or so though the heaviest rains look most likely in the North and West while Southern areas see occasionally dry and brighter interludes in average temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM is looking very unsettled and breezy this morning with cloud and rain featuring highly each day as Low pressure crosses the UK at times throughout the week with just brief drier periods in between. ECM still looks quite disturbed this morning as the Atlantic keeps domination over the skies over the UK through the next week or so. Cloud and rain will spread east across the UK on occasion with more showery interludes in between while temperatures remain close to average in brisk west or SW winds at times. MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning continue to look largely unsettled and Atlantic based with plenty of Low pressure areas crossing East close to northern Britain, each bringing bands of cloud and rain followed by showers. As always in these conditions there will be some drier and brighter intervals as well when it will feel pleasant enough though these look unlikely to last long. There is still some suggestion from GFS that things might settled down and warm up considerably towards the end of the two weeks with High pressure building from the South and East though at this range it has to be treated with trepidation.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY SATURDAY 3RD MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. High pressure over the UK will slip slowly South today allowing a warm front to cross East across the North of Britain tonight and tomorrow with a SW breeze freshening over the North. GFS GFS today shows a generally very unsettled period coming up once we exit the Bank Holiday weekend. The operational model and it's ensembles show continued Low pressure never far from UK shores bringing rain or showers across the UK on most days with some heavy rain in places, fresh winds and temperatures showing little signs of being anything spectacular for most areas over the next few weeks. UKMO UKMO shows a feed of Westerly winds between Low pressure close to the North and High pressure well away over the Azores. This classic UK weather set up means all areas will become subjected to rain and showers at times in breezy Westerly winds and temperatures close to average at best. GEM The GEM operational also shows unsettled conditions coming up with Low pressure areas queuing up in the Atlantic later next week to maintain a very unsettled spell with rain and showers at times in fresh Atlantic breeze. NAVGEM NAVGEM is virtually a mirror image of it's counterpart models with Low pressure well in control to the North of the UK with wind and rain coming across all areas in frequent succession from the early part of next week. ECM too shows the Atlantic in complete domination from Tuesday with various centres crossing East close to northern Scotland with attendant rain and showers spilling East across all areas at times. This pattern looks maintained through next weekend and beyond too in temperatures close to average. MY THOUGHTS I cannot bring much good cheer for those looking for an early taste of summer this morning. Instead all models without exception show a very unsettled period next week and probably beyond too with rain and showers likely for all with just brief brighter periods. The previous days optimism towards improvements in Week 2 of the model runs seems to have evaporated somewhat with the favoured option now trending towards a continuation of rain at times for most areas on blustery Westerly winds.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY FRIDAY 2ND MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A High pressure centre will slip South down across the UK from the North through today. A warm front will approach NW areas from the Atlantic through tomorrow. GFS GFS shows fine weather across the UK today and tomorrow in association with High pressure moving South over the UK. Through the second half of the weekend and for a time next week Atlantic fronts will affect the North at first and all areas by Tuesday. The model's ensembles then shows changeable conditions for a time for all before the trend towards High pressure building to a greater or lesser degree remains evident this morning for week 2. UKMO UKMO looks very unsettled this morning with a fresh Westerly flow next week between Low pressure to the North and High pressure near the Azores. All areas would be subjected to spells of rain at times in Westerly winds and average temperatures. GEM The GEM operational this morning also shows the likelihood of a period of blustery Westerly winds and occasional rain through next week and weekend as Low pressure remains to the North and High pressure recedes further to the South. NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows unsettled conditions spreading to all areas soon after the Bank Holiday with Low pressure crossing the UK from the West and followed by further unstable Westerly winds later with further outbreaks of rain in average temperatures. ECM looks very disturbed this morning as the Atlantic ratchets itself up on Tuesday feeding Low pressure, Westerly winds and frontal troughs spilling across from the west regularly from Tuesday onward right out to the end of the run. MY THOUGHTS After the fine and dry weather of Bank Holiday Monday next week looks increasingly likely to turn unsettled and breezy with rain at times as Low pressure is now focused on affecting all areas of the UK next week. With all models now singing from the same hymn sheet there seems little room for deviation from this general message with GFS the only voice in the dark indicating a trend towards drier and warmer conditions developing under higher pressure through Week 2 though it too shows disturbed conditions in the period before. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some warmth in any brighter patches between the rain in the SE.

For those interested in my statistics for my little patch of the SW here they are. APRIL 2014 DATA AND REPORT FOR RADSTOCK SOMERSET UK LOWEST TEMPERATURE 1.0C(34F) on the 19th at 06:36 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 19.2C(66F) on the 21st at 14:25 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 10.0C (50F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 97% on the 1st at 08:32 LOWEST HUMIDITY 37% on the 16th at 17:14 WETTEST DAY 14.8mm(0.60inc) on the 20th HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 105.0mm/hr(4.20inc/hr) on the 20th at 17:00 TOTAL RAINFALL 66.0mm(2.64inc) DRY DAYS 14 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 11 Days (9th-19th) HIGHEST PRESSURE 1030.3mbs on the 15th at 11:35 LOWEST PRESSURE 997.4mbs on the 27th at 04:37 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1014.2mbs PRESSURE RANGE 32.9mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 37mph on the 7th at 06:53 WIND BETWEEN S & W 37% WIND BETWEEN W & N 20% WIND BETWEEN N & E 7% WIND BETWEEN E & S 36% TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 128 hours and 48 minutes on the 15th DAYS WITH NO SUN 3 Days on the 2nd, 6th & 7th BRIGHTEST DAY 266.9w/sqm on the 16th DULLEST DAY 39.0w/sqm on the 20th DAYS WITH THUNDER 1 day on the 20th (16:30) DAYS WITH HAIL 1 Day on the 28th at 16:30 HOURS OF AIR FROST None DAYS WITH FOG 2 Days on the 11th & 30th for 5.5hrs DAYS WITH SNOW None REPORT April 2014 was a typical month with something for everyone with a strong emphasis on showery conditions. Rainfall totals were not far from average while temperatures ended somewhat above the long term April mean for us by 0.6C though there were no remarkably warm days with temperatures staying several degrees shy of the magic 21C 70F. There were some chilly nights with grass frosts but no sub zero temperatures were registered at this location. In addition there were quite a few misty and chilly mornings with thick fog on two occasions for several hours around the dawn periods of the 11th & 30th. There was one occasion of thunder on the 20th and hail on the 28th. Sunshine amounts were a little below the average for the area, hardly surprising given the generally unsettled pattern of the month as a whole but this was compensated by strong warmth when it shone. Winds were non problematic leaving the month as a whole non eventful overall.

APRIL 2014 DATA AND REPORTFOR RADSTOCK SOMERSET UK LOWEST TEMPERATURE 1.0C(34F) on the 19th at 06:36 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 19.2C(66F) on the 21st at 14:25 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 10.0C (50F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 97% on the 1st at 08:32 LOWEST HUMIDITY 37% on the 16th at 17:14 WETTEST DAY 14.8mm(0.60inc) on the 20th HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 105.0mm/hr(4.20inc/hr) on the 20th at 17:00 TOTAL RAINFALL 66.0mm(2.64inc) DRY DAYS 14 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 11 Days (9th-19th) HIGHEST PRESSURE 1030.3mbs on the 15th at 11:35 LOWEST PRESSURE 997.4mbs on the 27th at 04:37 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1014.2mbs PRESSURE RANGE 32.9mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 37mph on the 7th at 06:53 WIND BETWEEN S & W 37% WIND BETWEEN W & N 20% WIND BETWEEN N & E 7% WIND BETWEEN E & S 36% TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 128 hours and 48 minutes on the 15th DAYS WITH NO SUN 3 Days on the 2nd, 6th & 7th BRIGHTEST DAY 266.9w/sqm on the 16th DULLEST DAY 39.0w/sqm on the 20th DAYS WITH THUNDER 1 day on the 20th (16:30) DAYS WITH HAIL 1 Day on the 28th at 16:30 HOURS OF AIR FROST None DAYS WITH FOG 2 Days on the 11th & 30th for 5.5hrs DAYS WITH SNOW None REPORT April 2014 was a typical month with something for everyone with a strong emphasis on showery conditions. Rainfall totals were not far from average while temperatures ended somewhat above the long term April mean for us by 0.6C though there were no remarkably warm days with temperatures staying several degrees shy of the magic 21C 70F. There were some chilly nights with grass frosts but no sub zero temperatures were registered at this location. In addition there were quite a few misty and chilly mornings with thick fog on two occasions for several hours around the dawn periods of the 11th & 30th. There was one occasion of thunder on the 20th and hail on the 28th. Sunshine amounts were a little below the average for the area, hardly surprising given the generally unsettled pattern of the month as a whole but this was compensated by strong warmth when it shone. Winds were non problematic leaving the month as a whole non eventful overall.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY THURSDAY 1ST MAY 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A shallow Low pressure area is expected to cross ESE over Southern Britain over the next 12 hours. A trough over Northern areas will then slip South over the UK with rising pressure extending down from the North tomorrow. GFS GFS continues to show a fine weekend under High pressure slipping South over the UK. Through next week the Atlantic influence develops again across most areas as Low pressure crosses East to the North of Scotland. This means occasional rain will develop towards the middle of next week for most areas before the trend towards the later end of the period shows a more restricted Westerly flow, principally affecting the North while many Southern areas may well see longer drier and warmer spells in association with High pressure close to the South. UKMO Not available this morning. GEM The GEM operational shows more unsettled conditions developing next week as Atlantic Low pressure close to NW Britain steers troughs East across the UK pushing the Bank Holiday Weekend High pressure away to the South. All areas can expect some rain, heaviest in the North and west and accompanied by very average May temperatures. NAVGEM is also largely similar contracting High pressure away from the South early next week in preference of Atlantic Low pressure moving East close to northern Scotland with some rain at times expected for all later next week. ECM shows Low pressure crossing East over the UK midweek with rain and showers for all with further changeable conditions affecting most areas as well late next week and into the weekend. It maybe though that Southern areas become largely dry if rather cloudy through next weekend as High pressure builds somewhat from the South. MY THOUGHTS A decent weekend looks likely with all models supporting High pressure sliding down across the UK with fine and dry weather by day with plenty of sunshine but cold and clear nights. Thereafter the trend remains for more unsettled weather to return towards midweek with some rain at times for all though the longer term outlooks from the models remains a slow trend towards Southern areas becoming drier and brighter with temperatures rising somewhat as High pressure builds from the South with by then most rain bearing fronts from off the Atlantic restricted more towards Northern Britain.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY WEDNESDAY 30TH APRIL 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A trough of Low pressure will move slowly NE across SW England later today and tonight with shallow Low pressure developing over Central Britain tomorrow along it's axis. GFS This model shows High pressure slipping down across the UK over the weekend and next week with fine weather for many clinging on for most areas as the High slips slowly away East midweek to allow Atlantic fronts in for a time with occasional rain in places. The longer term outlook suggested by it's morning ensembles suggest that towards the end of the period High pressure may well build back North across the UK setting up an Easterly flow and largely fine weather again with some warmth in the West should it verify as shown. UKMO After the weekend sees High pressure dominant across the UK pressure will relax away SE early next week beginning to open the door to the Atlantic with the risk of rain increasing as we move towards the middle of next week. GEM The GEM operational continues to show a deterioration in conditions as we move through next week with the weekend High pressure being replaced by Lower pressure moving across the North with Atlantic fronts affecting all areas at times. Winds would settle Westerly and be fresh at times with temperatures close to average outside of the rainier periods. NAVGEM too shows High pressure easing away SE next week with fine weather being replaced by windier and more unsettled conditions as Low pressure passes East to the North. Troughs associated with this feature will cross East over all areas with some rain or showers for all at times. ECM this morning is rather slower than recent runs to deteriorate conditions next week as a High pressure ridge is shown to hang on across the UK for a while longer from a centre to the NE and SW.However, it does give way later in the run covering the end of next week as Low pressure to the NW brings cloud and rain across all areas by then in Westerly winds. MY THOUGHTS The general trend this morning remains unchanged although timings differ between the outputs. All models continue to highlight a fine weekend with some good sunny spells and the early weekend risk of frosts should dissolve away quite quickly as we move into next week. Then it's a case of how quickly High pressure dissolves away SE that determines the surface weather as we move through next week and beyond. As it stands the NW will show changes to cloudier and wetter weather quite soon after the Bank Holiday while Southern and Eastern parts are last to see this change, probably soon after midweek. In the far reaches of the longer range models the pattern remains unclear with GFS showing signs of rising pressure again with attendant fine and possibly warmer weather through Week 2.

HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 28TH APRIL 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. The UK lies in a slack East flow around Low pressure over France. A trough of Low pressure is expected to move NE across the SW approaches later tonight. GFS GFS today shows High pressure sliding down across the UK over this coming weekend with dry and fine weather for many over the Bank Holiday weekend with inherently cold air, especially by night before things warm up early next week as the High slips South allowing Westerly winds to develop. The trend then is shown for troughs of Low pressure to cross the North and eventually the South too at times but with some further injections of higher pressure now and again with fine and dry interludes in temperatures close to average. UKMO High pressure moving down over the UK at the weekend will settle near Southern England on Bank Holiday Monday with fine, dry and increasingly warmer weather with sunny spells. NW Britain may become rather cloudier later but are shown to stay dry out until the expiry of the run. GEM The GEM operational today shows High pressure maintaining control over most of the UK through next week as it drifts from it's position over the UK at the weekend to a point to the east through the week. Temperatures as a result would rise with some warmer continental air wafting up across the UK later in the week with any cloud and occasional rain restricted to the very far NW. NAVGEM sides with GFS with lower pressure moving back down over the UK through the early part of next week with some rain at times for all, first in the North but later in the South too as Westerly winds bring more cloud and a Westerly breeze increasingly evident through next week. ECM too this morning shows High pressure close to Southern England losing grip somewhat as we move through next week, at least for a time. In this period the fine weekend will be eroded by cloud and some rain moving down across the UK for a time through the middle period of next week. Temperatures would become somewhat warmer, especially in the sheltered SE later. MY THOUGHTS There has been a few changes since yesterday morning's output. The anticipated lengthy spell of High pressure shows signs of being interrupted at least for a time after the Bank Holiday Weekend as much of the output indicate a strong risk of a period of more unsettled weather to move down across the UK for a time through the midweek period. My own thoughts are that beyond this High pressure will re-establish itself towards the South or SW with a NW/SE type scenario setting up with Southern and Eastern Britain becoming dry and bright while NW areas see the biggest risk of seeing more in the way of rain at times in a SW flow. Temperatures look like settling close to average though it could become quite warm in the SE at times later.

Hi Guys. Though my personal circumstances continue to get in the way of my life at the moment I have been told that 'life goes on' and with that in mind I have decided to resume my daily analysis of the models with you, though only once a day in the morning for now. Hope mods don't mind me putting this here but I know some of you have missed my reports and I would also like to thank those that have offered support over what has been and still is a traumatic time for me. For now to keep things on topic here is my effort from this morning lifted from my website bearing in mind it is taken from the 00zs HERE IS THE LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM TODAY MONDAY 28TH APRIL 2014. THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. The UK lies in a slack flow around a weakened Low over Norther France. A weak upper Low near Northern Ireland will maintain it's own feed of light winds over Northern Britain. GFS shows a showery week to come as pressure is shown to remain slack across the UK as an injection of further shallow Low pressure crosses the South through this week. By the weekend High pressure is shown to move down across the UK settling things down into colder and brighter weather at the weekend with frosts at night. The trend thereafter appears to be a continuation of High pressure maintained close to the East or SW of the UK with a lot of dry weather, especially in the South.although incursions of Atlantic energy crossing East to the North of the UK at times could deliver occasional rain in Scotland and Northern Ireland as it becomes warmer in the South. UKMO By the weekend High pressure is shown to have become established across the UK with attendant fine and dry weather with sunny spells but with the strong possibility of unwanted overnight frosts inland. GEM This model shows the same trend as High pressure develops across the UK next weekend. Thereafter High pressure does slip away South a little allowing some Atlantic fronts to affect the North with rain in places. At the same time as winds back more Westerly milder air should remove the frost risk with somewhat warmer days too in the South. NAVGEM keeps a strong ridge from High pressure over the Low Countries early next week with the weather set fair across all areas with some warm sunshine by days and although cool night still frosts should become less prevalent the deeper we move into next week as winds turn more Southerly. ECM this morning shows High pressure well established across the UK through much of next week following a fine but chilly weekend. The resultant conditions would continue fine and bright with temperatures by day and night recovering somewhat with any rain unlikely anywhere. MY THOUGHTS It looks like the common denominator between the models this morning is that High pressure will become established at least for a time, coming down from the North before settling down across or near the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend and next week too from ECM, NAVGEM and to some degree GFS too. Any rainfall risk will look restricted towards any Atlantic incursion into the far North of Britain next week though taken as a whole a lot of dry, bright and pleasant weather looks likely next week though a heatwave looks unlikely at the moment.

Hi Guys Just a quick off topic post to tell you that despite my family health dilemmas which have far from gone away I have resumed my website services including model output summaries to keep my mind active and away from health issues. It looks like High pressure at Northern latitudes is continuing to feature in current output. Lets hope this pattern is not maintained through the Summer as it may end up being being quite wet at times.

Hi folks. Just a few minutes to spare before I endulge in another day of Canaries heat to give you a snapshot of how I see the models this morning as printed over on my website. This morning's analysis tells a story of changeable conditions typical of the time of year with a mix of low pressure from the Atlantic delivering spells of rain alternating with some drier, colder and brighter phases when some wintry showers could fall, especially over the North and East. Some models show High pressure becoming dominant again after the coming weekend's showery theme which if verified would mean more warm and dry weather by day but frosts and fogs at night. However, this improvement is by no means set in stone with other output suggesting Low pressure sliding down across the UK meaning rather cold and unsettled weather prevailing with rain or sleet at times, and no doubt some snow over the hills, especially in the North Whichever is right as indicated earlier will be just typical early Spring weather when it is almost possible to have four seasons in one day.

Hi folks. Things are progressing a little better for me now though I'm taking one day at a time at the moment. I have no less than three members of my close family ill at the moment plus more distant elderly members are still dislodged from their homes due to the flooding which has taken it's toll on day to day living. With my son home caretaking my wife and I have taken an extended break down to Puerto Rico in Gran Canaria for a few weeks while my well members of the family care for those ill at home. It is lovely and warm here with temperatures comfortably in the low 20's each day with sunny skies and it really is what the doctor ordered. O/T With regard to my model analysis I am managing to maintain a once daily updated summary of the models while here as i have a decent wifi signal at my hotel which can be found on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm and hope that should things continue to progress as currently I should be able to resume my normal reports soon after I return to the UK later in the month. P.S Thanks for the support for those forum members whom I didn't find time to acknowledge a couple of weeks ago.

Hi folks. I'm sorry for not being able to post my twice daily model analysis for the last week or so. I have my elderly mum in hospital currently with an illness which in a younger person would not be life threatening but at 92 what isn't so please excuse me for interrupting this twice daily analysis. While at home resting after another time consuming day I have looked at the models and can see that a major change is imminent towards dry and settled weather with some mild spring sunshine with potentially chilly and frosty nights coupled with patchy fog. It is worthy of note though that March has a habit of offering Spring in one hand and plunging us into winter in the other so I would caution that although Spring is indicated in tonight's output to take one day at a time as Winter often has a last bite between now and Easter. On my reports scenario I will be back as soon as possible posting my regular analysis with you guys as soon as I am able.

Good evening. Here is my Monday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled. All models indicate an unsettled spell to come for the remainder of the week. Tonight sees Low pressure to the West of the UK spilling a trough steadily East over the UK with rain and strong winds for all overnight followed by a sunshine and heavy shower mix tomorrow in blustery, relatively mild winds. On Wednesday a weak ridge delivers a dry day for many as it crosses East before more Low pressure becomes complex to the North and then over the UK over Thursday and the lead up to the weekend with more rain and showers for most. Over the weekend the weather remains generally unsettled but with some dry weather about but with some showers as well in a NW wind and somewhat colder conditions. GFS then shows a typical changeable regime developing under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under any NW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0 The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come in from the West at times through Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 UKMO closes today with next Sunday seeing a bank of Low pressure to the North and NW with a chilly Westerly flow carrying further rain at times in blustery winds with some snow at times on Northern hills. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021 GEM also shows a Low pressure trough across the UK in a NW/SE axis. In essence the weather looks like staying changeable and showery well into next week with the air cold enough at times for some snow on northern hills. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 The GEM Ensembles also maintain fairly changeable conditions with Low pressure areas crossing to the North of Britain next week keeping Westerly breezes going and rain at times, heaviest in the North in average temperatures.Late in the run there is support for High pressure to move up strongly towards SW Britain with settled and bright conditions in NW or North winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 NAVGEM shows a deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain to start next week with rain and showers circulating around it affecting most areas. With a Northerly contingent to the wind some snow is likely on Northern hills at least as it remains a little on the chilly side. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 ECM's operational tonight shows a breezy Westerly flow likely next week as Low pressure to the North of the UK brings rain at times for many, heaviest in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see rather longer drier periods in between more occasional rain and rather milder conditions later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show Low pressure to the NW and High to the South. The operational's deep Low just NW of Scotland is not well supported with the underlying pressure values shown indicating somewhat better conditions likely than what is shown on the operational but High pressure likely near Spain and Portugal some unsettled weather is possible over the UK at that range, especially towards the North. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced the amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK and remain quite strong meaning Low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British Isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary this evening there seems a reduction in confidence on the scheduled improvements next week. Tonight we have UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM looking far from moving towards the High pressure scenario shown yesterday. ECM and GFS is also watered down somewhat on it's fine weather projections of earlier and finds a half way house tonight with changeable conditions across the UK continuing though with not much rain in the South. It still seems the Atlantic is still showing solid strengths which continue to detain any intervention of any would be fine weather solutions and as I indicated yesterday I think we will see many more up and down model runs one way and another in the days to come before a clearer picture of where we are next week is known.