Gibby

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from today Monday February 3rd 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a very unsettled week and weekend to come as powerful depression ride on the back of a very active Jet flow crossing the Atlantic towards Southern Britain. There will be several periods of worrying weather for those areas already afflicted by floods with Wednesday, late Thursday and probably Saturday looking likely to produce disruptive rainfall and/or strong winds. In between these periods of deep Low pressures moving up from the SW will be fresher but still strong Westerly winds and heavy showers rattling through then too. GFS then shows next week as being equally disturbed with further strong winds and heavy rain at times as further Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and the UK in temperatures close to average. The GFS Ensembles show the unsettled and often wet pattern maintained in temperatures close to or somewhat above average at times especially in the South. With accompanying strong winds at times will mean any mildness is tempered in the way things feel. UKMO shows Low pressure close to Northern Scotland next Sunday with a strong Westerly flow across the UK with heavy showers rushing East in average temperatures feeling rather cold. GEM is very disturbed with Low pressure close to or over the United Kingdom with gales and spells of heavy rain and showers continuing over all areas at times. NAVGEM closes its run showing Low pressure just to the NE of Scotland with showers in many places, more especially towards the West and temperatures never look like straying far from the seasonal average. ECM is totally unrelenting tonight in bringing in Low pressure after Low pressure across the UK with their seemingly never ending conveyor belts of rain followed by showers win strong to gale wind at times and temperatures close to average. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart gives us a strong clue to where ECM Ensembles lie tonight towards the end of it's run and it remains not good news for those hoping for something drier as both days show the UK influenced by Low pressure most likely just to the West of Scotland with a SW flow across the UK with further rain or showers, heavy and prolonged at times in temperatures close to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the unrelenting passage of winds strengthening further over the next week and maintaining it's course towards France and being a catalyst to powerful depressions developing over the Atlantic and crashing into the UK. In Summary the pattern remains locked in it's current very volatile state with further spells of disruptive rainfall along with high winds giving their own problems at times. With very little evidence of any ridges of High pressure of note then we can't expect anymore than brief drier interludes before the next storm system rattles in. There is no doubt that further flooding and weather disruption in general will be making the headlines over the coming two weeks.

Good morning everyone. A new week a new dawn but the same old? Read on for the latest look at the outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 3rd 2014. All models show a continuation of very unsettled and often windy weather this week as several or as many as three separate Low pressure areas are likely to affect us this week. The first today and tonight will bring a band of heavy rain slowly East to reach the East tonight followed by showers. The second will hit the SW tomorrow afternoon and sweep rain and gales NE over all areas again followed by showers. In the South there may be a further spell of rain as a small Low crosses East just to the South while the weekend returns more wind and gales as a new large Low spreads further gales and rain over the UK for next weekend. Temperatures will often be close to average but it may feel rather chilly at times. GFS changes nothing through the lower resolution portion of it's run with further rain and strong winds at times in winds from between South and West before they turn Northerly late in the run as a temporary feature. The GFS Ensembles maintain the pattern as before wind wild and wet weather at times as winds remain strong and from the West or SW with Atlantic Low pressure delivering rain and strong winds to all areas all too frequently. UKMO today shows the end of next weekend as very windy with a deep Low over Scotland next Sunday with gale force westerly winds driving showers and longer spells of rain Eastwards very quickly in the flow. Some of the showers could fall as snow on northern hills. GEM is very similar next weekend, spiraling up yet more depressions to the NW and West in the early days of the following week with strong Westerly winds backing Southerly ahead of more frontal rain especially in the West long before the end of the run. NAVGEM shows a Low pressure complex over and around the British Isles towards the end of it's run with rain and showers scattered about nationwide with winds somewhat lighter due to the slacker nature of isobars but still biased towards the west and SW. ECM today also shows a similar setup with deep Low pressure over Scotland at the end of next weekend followed by further depressions lined up over the Atlantic each bringing their attendant bad weather especially towards the West and SW. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the continuing theme of Low pressure to the WNW of the UK and a broad and unstable WSW flow likely to lie across the British Isles with showers or longer spells of rain across all areas with relatively mild SW winds. The Jet Stream continues unabated in it's path across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France for the foreseeable future. In Summary it's more of the same this morning with all models continuing to programme the theme of unsettled and often wet and windy weather throughout their outputs. Differences between the models are shown but the overall message indicated by the models today is still a very Atlantic based and windy WSW pattern for some considerable time yet.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's overview of the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this evening Sunday February 2nd 2014, the text lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue the projection of yet another dire set of outputs tonight. The first week is shown to be particularly unpleasant on occasions with Wednesday looking a particular case in question with heavy rain and severe gales a major feature of the day as an intense Winter Low drifts NE across the UK. With a disturbance moving steadily East tomorrow giving heavy rain on Monday then blustery showers on Tuesday and the prospect of further rain and showers late in the week and more especially next weekend there could be a lot of anxious moments to come for those threatened by floods and a continuation of little prospect of major improvements for those already stricken. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts with little meaningful frost, ice or snow anywhere. GFS through it's second half shows very little difference than week 1 with further depressions rattling over the UK from the West with rain and strong winds at times with things trending slightly colder later after a temporary slight rise in temperatures through the middle of the period. The GFS Ensembles show a bleak set of members tonight nearly without exception all showing very unsettled and often wet conditions over the period. The previous warming trend has also been eroded further with conditions at the surface often feeling rather chilly despite temperatures close to average overall. UKMO tonight closes it's run next Saturday with yet another very deep Low over Ireland with a strong cyclonic flow over the UK with fronts delivering heavy rain then squally showers later in the day with severe gales over coasts and hills over the South and West. GEM tonight shows a relentless period of gales and areas of heavy rain from next Saturday until the close of it's run on Wednesday week. This would induce major travel and flooding issues for the UK infrastructure should this setup verify. NAVGEM is very little better with deep Low pressure always present close to or over the UK with strong winds and rain never more than a few hours a way from any one place in average temperatures. ECM again tonight offers no relief from the unsettled and windy period with deep areas of Low pressure steaming in from the Atlantic repeatedly delivering prolonged rain bands then showers in gale force winds at times and temperatures close to average. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts remain about as poor as they could be with the likelihood of a deep depression or depressions out to the North and NW of the UK and an Azores High placed well South of it's home ground keeping the UK in a broad and very unstable SW flow with further spells of rain or showers at times in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow in a strong and flat mood as it flows directly West to east across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain or France powering it's relentless feed of low pressure to it's North with little if any evidence of significant change over the period covered by tonight's output. In Summary there remains little cheer for those looking for a break from this fascinating but monotonous period of sustained wet and windy disruptive weather. Over the period of tonight's output all models show various opportunities for gales and heavy rain will little relief in between rain bouts as Low pressure after Low pressure maintains the prospect of almost unprecedented Winter rainfall for 2013-14 should the next few weeks charts verify. As of this morning's output with so much emphasis on wet and windy weather from the Atlantic there remains little chance of anything remotely wintry in the way of cold and snow in the next few weeks anywhere in the UK other than in mountainous areas in excess of 2000 feet or so in the North.

Good morning. Here is the report on the outputs of the NWP based on their midnight outputs on Sunday February 2nd 2014 and featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to show a very volatile and mobile setup across the UK through the coming week. With winds from between South and West through the week and Low pressure areas and trough moving across the UK tomorrow, Wednesday and again towards the weekend over the South there will continue to be spells of sometimes heavy rain coupled with strong winds which could reach severe gale force on Wednesday as a particularly deep Low speeds NE across the UK through the day. The rain will be heaviest in areas adjacent to the wind, especially the high ground of the South and West. In between the main rain bands brighter or clearer air with blustery showers will occur most likely over Tuesday and Thursday with temperatures largely near average for all but perhaps rather chilly at times over the North where some mountain snow is likely. GFS then moves through next weekend with no changes with further windy spells with heavy rain at times as Low pressure remains close to the NW. Through the latter stages of the output the weather remains very volatile and Atlantic driven with yesterday's improvements muted today with further low pressure areas maintaining the wet and windy theme right out to the end of the run for all in average temperatures. The GFS Ensembles today show continued very changeable conditions preferred over the period with a lot of rain possible for a good portion of the run though perhaps a trend towards less rain by the end of the run. The recent strong milder surge in uppers have been scaled back this morning with the likelihood of more average temperatures at the surface being most likely for all areas for the next two weeks with solid agreement from most members. UKMO shows the end of the week and start to next weekend with a new depression rattling in towards Western Ireland bringing another set of troughs in from the SW to all areas by the end of Saturday with rain and strong winds followed by showers the likely sequence of events through the day for the UK. GEM today shows deep Low pressure areas continuing to cross the UK next weekend and the start of the second week with more very heavy rain and gales all too frequently affecting all areas with the West and SW continuing to suffer the worst of the conditions with wind too newsworthy too at times. NAVGEM shows a vicious little Low crossing Southern England next weekend with very heavy and prolonged rainfall moving East over the day and followed by more unsettled and windy Westerly breezes with further rain and showers in very average temperatures. ECM today has removed the hint of somewhat drier conditions late in the run and replaced it with a continuation of wind and rain at times, sometimes heavy and prolonged at times as the run continues to show areas of Low pressure and fronts running in from a very active Atlantic Ocean. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts have deepened the trough still more over the UK in 9 and 10 Days time with undoubtedly no chane in the wet and windy wether under Low pressure to the North and West late in its run so no improvent from this model. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to pump Eastwards over the Atlantic and across Southern Britain and Northern France and apart from temporary and slight migrations away from this pattern as Low pressure areas wax and wane over the UK little overall change is shown that would in any way release the UK from the current wet and windy theme. In Summary the weather remains locked in this pattern of wet and windy weather which is rapidly heading towards the wettest winter of all time if we continue down this never ending tunnel of Low pressure through the periods covered by this morning's output. The amounts of rain and wind remain rediculously high again this morning with absolutely no chance of the very short drier interludes between the rain areas being long enough for any alleviation in conditions to flooded areas before any improvements are removed by the next storm but unfortunately that's how it looks again this morning. Winds too feature strongly at times with severe gales likely at times giving rise to their own disruptive recipe almost anywhere. The one consolation that while these conditions prevail there will be little or no risk from snow with ice, frost and fog no more than a local issue on the rare occasions when clearing skies between systems overnight allow patchy ground frost to be possible.

Good evening everyone. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 1st 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a continuation of the very unsettled period, lasting throughout next week with Monday and Wednesday the main days of concern as active troughs linked to Atlantic depressions bring copious rainfall once more to those areas that least need it. Wednesday provides the additional risk of severe gales. In between the main rain bands there will be Westerly winds and showers. Temperatures will recover to average values by the end of next week. GFS shows the weather remaining unsettled through the remainder of the run with further rain and blustery winds and just short drier and more showery spells in between. Temperatures will remain close to average in the North while the South becomes somewhat milder. The GFS Ensembles show little change tonight with further large amounts of wind and rain populating the UK through the next week or two. Winds look like staying strong too at times with a Westerly element throughout. Temperatures look likely that they will be on the rise somewhat as time passes. UKMO is maintaining it's stance of WSW winds later next week with troughs crossing East at times with rain at times in average temperatures. GEM shows a very windy end to next week and weekend with further bands of showers and rain transferring East over the UK in average temperatures on regular occasions. NAVGEM shows a series of depressions running East over the UK later next week and the weekend with spells of rain and showers passing over at times in average temperatures. ECM is a little less dramatic tonight thankfully though nonetheless still shows a lot of powerful depressions delivering copious rain amounts before we get to a windy and milder period late in the run as warm winds are sucked up from the SW with a continued feed of rain and drizzle especially near Southern and western coasts and hills. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are not that supportive of it's operational at Days 9 and 10 as it maintains the approach it has shown for the last few days of a bias from it's members of Low pressure likely to be to the North and NW with a SW flow maintained over the UK in pressure likely to be quite low at 1005mbs to 990mbs South to North, very adequate to support fairly appreciable amounts of rain from fronts travelling NE across the UK in average temperatures at worst. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the West to East flow to the South of the UK maintained over the period drifting slowly North later in the run. In Summary tonight the pattern remains very volatile throughout the reliable period of the output tonight. There will be regular occurrences of wind and rain on most days with the winds very strong at times as well as the rain. There is a slight lifting of the gloom at the very end of the ECM operational tonight with a strong shift North of the Jet Flow carrying the depressions further North too. Whether this becomes a trend or just a glitch will be borne out in subsequent runs but the one positive would be temperatures look like rising somewhat, especially in the South later.

Here's my January data from the flood stricken West Country which includes the data table for Winter to date. Note the total rain figure from Dec 1st. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

Just so you guys can see how things have shaped up over January and Winter so far from Radstock here's a link to my stations data to date...pretty wet I think you'll agree. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

Good morning. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday 1st February 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show deep Low pressure close to NW Britain with a strengthening SW or west wind today giving rise to high tides and over-topping at tonight's high tide in the west and SW. The weather itself will be showery with hail and thunder possible at times as well as more prolonged showers too as the day progresses. Tomorrow ill see conditions ease as the Low fills and drifts slowly North allowing winds to decrease and back Southerly late in the day. The next deep depression then comes crashing in on Monday with yet more rain and wind through the day followed by squally showers on Tuesday. It's then all eyes to Wednesday as all models show a potentially damaging storm system crossing the UK from the SW with severe gale or even storm force winds yet again accompanying heavy rain and showers sweeping into the UK from the Atlantic through the day. GFS then shows the end of next week with little overall change as further depressions and fronts are shown to sweep NE across the UK in a very strong SW flow with the only glimmer of light being that temperatures will be close to average or somewhat above at times in the South. The latter end of the run does show a change to drier and brighter weather as High pressure is finally shown to ridge up from the SW with the drying out process allowed to commence later. The GFS Ensembles show a sustained warming over the coming week or two with little overall change to the wet and very windy weather as it continues to be scheduled to afflict our shores. The drying process shown by the operational has only very limited support unfortunately from within the ensemble group. UKMO today closes it's run with Low pressure topping and tailing the UK with at least showers for all and also longer spells of rain too, once more mostly towards the South. GEM shows a further series of depressions and disturbances running NE across the UK in the run up to the end of the run maintaining the thoroughly wet and miserable spell of weather. NAVGEM also continues to show Low pressure out to the NW with rain at times in strong but often rather mild SW winds especially in the South. ECM today is as shocking as ever with incessant intense depressions crashing into the UK from the SW with further very heavy rainfall, especially in the SW with strong winds at times too. Temperatures though on the mild side of average will be totally academic, lost by the strength of the wind. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of a maintained locked pattern over the UK still well established for some considerable time with the UK locked in a SW flow around Low pressure to the North of Britain feeding bands of rain and showers North and East across the UK each day. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to flow East over the Atlantic and either over Southern Britain or to the South with a particularly strong streak later next week and with very little lessening in strength through Week 2 either. In Summary today there remains little optimism from me of a pattern shift anytime soon with the only talking point being the degree of severity and extent that each passing depression over the next few weeks impact on an already desperate situation over the parts of the UK that are afflicted by floods. There are plenty of charts which can only be described as alarmist with ECM deeply depressing if verification occurs with wind strengths adding to the already storm damaged landscape. With all the wind and rain frost, ice and snow will be very limited with little likelihood of much of this away from Scottish mountains. There is indeed some support for things to become rather mild at times later in the period as winds from the Azores reach our shores.

Good evening. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 31st 2014. All models continue to show very unsettled and potentially stormy weather over the next 4 or 5 days. Through this period there are three distinct periods of concern shown by all output. Tomorrow will see the UK battered by gales and squally showers followed by something of a respite on Sunday. On Monday the second attack comes up from the SW with further very heavy rain and strong winds. A return to showers on Tuesday is followed by a worryingly bad spell of weather with severe gale force winds and flooding rain on Wednesday with near average temperatures throughout. GFS then shows the rest of the run similar to that of this morning's with very changeable weather alternating between windy and wet weather with brighter and more showery conditions at times. A drier and brighter interlude under a rare anticyclonic interlude is shown later when it may be accompanied by a rise of temperatures in the SE with the more pronounced rainfall transferring to the NW. However, this period looks far from a pattern changer and it isn't long before such improvements are eroded away by more Atlantic Low pressure at the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show a marked warming to rather mild levels by the second half of the run with the weather remaining wet and often very windy as Atlantic Low pressure areas and fronts continue to bring rain in milder SW winds. UKMO closes tonight showing next Thursday with a deep depression over Ireland on Wednesday clearing slowly North on Thursday with a small secondary feature close to Southern Britain threatening more wind and rain for the South while the North sees strong Westerly winds and showers. GEM tonight also shows very unsettled and wet weather next week with spells of rain and showers on all days next week before things become rather milder, especially in the South and East later as the most rain transfers more towards the North and West. NAVGEM is still showing very unstable SW winds next week with fronts moving East and NE regularly bringing rain and showers for all at times in more average temperatures. ECM tonight is purely awful once more, as bad if not worse than this morning with repetitive spells of rain and showers in very strong winds at times and temperatures around average. there remains little sign of a pattern break even at day 10. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show strong support for Low pressure biased to be to the North of Scotland in 9 or 10 days time with the seemingly ever present SW flow across the UK with rain bearing fronts still in attendance. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast remains testament to why our weather remains poor tonight. the flow is shown to blow west to East just to the South of the UK with occasional surges of increased strength powering up large depressions and escalating weather conditions to disruptive levels at times. The flow does inch a little further North to lie over the UK late in the run. In Summary tonight the Atlantic bandwagon motors on with little sign of any significant improvement shown again tonight. There will be frequent periods of rain and strong winds giving rise to disruption at times with temperatures very gradually rising to average then above average conditions at times later. I doubt if anyone will notice such a temperature rise as for the most part it will be accompanied by a strong SW breeze and further rainfall.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the morning outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 31st 2014. All models show a deep Low pressure area steaming in from the West today and settling near NW Britain pushing troughs across the UK through the day with spells of heavy rain followed by wintry showers tonight and strengthening SW winds. Tomorrow will become very windy with severe gales in the South and West with the real risk of another storm surge giving rise to coastal flooding issues in these areas. Inland sunshine and showers will be present with hail and thunder between brighter intervals. This showery theme extends into Sunday as the Low only slowly moves away North from Scotland so winds should be less strong. GFS then shows the rest of it's run with very changeable weather with further spells of rain and strong winds at times with a drier anticyclonic period for parts of the UK for a time later before the unsettled regime returns. The GFS Ensembles today are concerning again today as they indicate no relief from the very wet pattern of this winter so far with spells of rain predominant throughout the period. The only differing trend from the current situation is the raising of temperatures into the mild category as we pass deeper into next week and through Week 2. UKMO today closes it's run with next Thursday showing the whole of the North Atlantic and the British Isles being covered in Low pressure in one shape or form with further spells of rain and showers but with slack winds it looks as though night's could be quite cold and frosty should skies clear between the rain and showers. GEM also shows very unsettled weather in SW winds as Low pressure areas continue to bring spells of rain and showers throughout the next 10 days with temperatures recovering towards near average. NAVGEM also shows very unsettled weather with low pressure close to Northern Britain with wet and windy conditions persisting over the UK with strong winds at times and average temperatures. ECM today is quite simply appalling for SW Britain who look like bearing the brunt of repeated attacks of Low pressure areas and fronts moving in off the Atlantic, each bringing it's own version of heavy rain and potentially strong winds. Temperatures may rise a little above average at times later in the period. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no change to the general synoptic setup of Low pressure to the North and NW with SW winds carrying rain and strong winds across all areas of the UK with the wettest weather still likely to be towards the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing to cross the Atlantic just to the South of the UK and only slowly drifting North to be over the UK later. In Summary the weather pattern remains a very serious one with regard to pending amounts of rainfall that can be expected if any of the current model projections verify. With little notable change to the pattern away from Low pressure Atlantic based weather continuing for the foreseeable future we can only expect further newsworthy events and disruption making media headlines over the next few weeks. On a minute meaningful scale temperatures will probably rise somewhat later in the run with little or no prospect of cold weather anytime soon.

Good evening everyone. Here is this evening's account of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to show a very unsettled period developing once more starting tomorrow. A deepening depression is moving quickly over the Atlantic pushing active troughs NE across the UK with heavy rain and hill snow in places through tomorrow. Following on behind will be very strong and gusty SW winds with flooding issues around the coasts of SW England and Wales over the weekend with very high tides. In addition heavy showers will batter Southern and Western areas, some heavy with hail and thunder in places. Sunday will see the Low drift slowly North with winds easing somewhat though maintaining a showery theme while late in the day winds backing towards the South in the SW of the UK will herald the arrival of yet another active rain bearing Low pressure system to start next week. GFS then shows next week with Low pressure over the North of the UK with strong WSW winds and periods of rain at times interspersed by brighter and showery interludes. Temperatures will be close to or a little above average for most. For those hoping that the lower resolution half of the run shows any changes will remain very disappointed as the incessant barrage of Low pressure troughs in association with Low pressure to the North continues right out to the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles shows an especially wet period through next week with very average temperatures. Through Week 2 while further unwelcome rainfall is shown uppers will warm in a SW airflow and the heaviest rainfall may transfer more towards the North and West rather than the South and West of Week 1. UKMO shows an active Low pressure system over Scotland with strong West or SW winds continuing to drive showers and longer spells of rain across all areas at times. GEM shows little difference to the rest of the output with just a slow trend later for milder SW winds in response to raising pressure over SE Europe giving longer drier periods between rain bands over the South and East in 10 days time. NAVGEM shows a broad and unstable SW flow later next week as deep Low pressure remains to the NW with rain and showers off and on for all in average temperatures. ECM tonight also shows a depressing set of charts tonight as throughout next week it too indicates further active areas of Low pressure areas to the North and NW sweeping rain bearing troughs East across the UK with showery spells in between throughout the period. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show little change tonight with the ensemble pack stating the likelihoods of deep Low pressure to the NW of the UK in 9 and 10 days time is very high and with a resultant strong SW flow across all areas rain at times will be the ultimate weather pattern in temperatures well up to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is shown to remain very strong over the next two weeks continuing to steer depressions close in to the UK for the next week to 10 days with just a slight trend to shift the flow somewhat further North late in the run. In Summary I have nothing new to report tonight that hasn't been said on numerous runs this Winter as put quite simply the pattern that has afflicted the UK for the majority of this Winter re-establishes over the next few days and carries on throughout the output periods tonight. Any changes that are shown are minimal and will change only rain distribution over the UK late in the period at the same time as bringing the chance of above average temperatures accompanying the rain. There is little or no chance of any cold weather as the Jet stream remains very strong with the main worrying fact for those afflicted by floods there seems few straws to grasp.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday January 30th 2014 taken from Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a quiet day today as the remains of the early week Low remain close to SE England. Through tonight and tomorrow a very active depression deepens over the Atlantic and spins it's way up towards N Scotland by Saturday with a series of active fronts crossing East and NE over the UK with spells of heavy rain as a result. Showers will follow, heavy, thundery and wintry over the hills and will affect mostly Southern and Western areas while some NE areas become drier. At the end of the weekend a new area of Low pressure begins to move up towards the SW with more heavy rain and strong winds developing by Monday morning. After a chilly day today temperatures will recover somewhat over the weekend. GFS shows the remainder of it's run with incessant strong winds from between South and West and depression after depression moving across the Atlantic towards the NW of the UK with their attendant troughs crossing all areas, repeatedly bringing spells of rain and strong winds followed by showers throughout the period and with temperatures close to or above average at times. The GFS Ensembles maintain a mild and unsettled view this morning with total Atlantic domination shown by all members throughout the period. From this one can expect plenty more rain events over the period with strong winds from between South and West and very little in the way of reliably dry weather lasting more than a day or so. UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure out to the NW and West of the British Isles with SW winds pumping spells of rain and showers NE across the UK on Wednesday with further troughs looking poised to affect the UK later in the week. GEM looks much the same with Low pressure out to the NW with frequent bands of rain spreading NE across all areas with some regularity. Winds will be strong at times too but being from the SW temperatures will hold well up to average and possibly above at times. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure to the NW with secondary Low pressure areas moving frequently NE across the UK with spells of rain and showers in very average temperatures for early February. ECM also shows very unsettled conditions with periods of rain across all areas at times as further Low pressure areas spin up towards the NW of Britain with temperatures close to the seasonal average and possibly above later. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of very unsettled conditions persisting across the UK with a high chance of a deep Low pressure area to the NW of Britain likely to be in total control of our weather with attendant rain and showers continuing to affect all areas of Britain at times, probably still heaviest towards the South and West. The second trend is that it looks like with rising pressure over SE Europe the SW flow will become rather mild for early February. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast continues to flow strongly West to East just to the South of the UK before the trend is then for the flow to tilt more SW to NE across the UK towards Scandinavia in Week 2. In Summary today all models continue to show an unrelenting run of Atlantic domination as Low pressure after Low pressure is programmed to steam across the Atlantic towards NW Britain powered by a strong Jet flow close to Southern Britain next week. Later in the period pressure does show signs of rising towards the SE of Europe which would pump ever milder air NE over the UK with little relief from wind and rain as further Low pressure up to the NW steers further troughs NE across the UK. There is an almost zero chance of anything remotely cold showing up anywhere over the British Isles within the forecast period given the output this morning and that includes the ensembles. Environment Agencies and authorities looking for a dry spell will not like my report this morning as there seems little relief from events from the sky undoing any good that is being done at the surface in the flood stricken part of our County.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and taken from the Midsomer Norton and Radstock Weather Website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a light Easterly flow over Britain and rather stronger cold winds in the NE. Cold weather will prevail over the coming 24-36 hours with a little rain or sleet in places in generally cloudy skies. On Friday a deepening area of Low pressure moves it's way towards Western Scotland with active fronts crossing steadily East and North across the UK bringing spells of heavy rain preceded by sleet or snow on Northern hills in strong Southerly winds veering more towards the West later and bringing a change to showery conditions with showers again turning wintry over the hills, even over the South at times over the weekend. GFS then shows next week as very unsettled with a new deepening depression as early as Monday bringing rain and gales NE across the UK. Through the week further spells of heavy rain and strong winds continue with gales at times and temperatures close to average. In the lower resolution of the output tonight things show no real sign of significant change with winds between South and West throughout carrying further depressions up to the NW of the UK and pushing troughs NE across the UK with incessant spells of rain and showers alternating in temperatures well up to average. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a resolute solution towards wet and windy weather predominating throughout the oncoming two weeks with upper 850 temperatures above the seasonal average beyond this weekend and very little indication of anything more reliably settled anywhere tonight. UKMO shows a very unstable SW flow across the UK fuelled by a deep depression South of Iceland. Secondary Low pressure areas sweep NE across all areas bringing spells of heavy rain punctuated by heavy showers and squally winds from a SW point. GEM tonight shows 4 separate bands of prolonged rainfall on a succession of disturbances running NE across the UK from a parent deep Low pressure area out in the Atlantic. Winds would occasionally be strong with gales in places and temperatures near average. NAVGEM is broadly similar in type to the other output with rain and strong winds at times from a similar synoptic setup to the other models. ECM shows very unsettled weather next week too with Low pressure areas barreling into the UK at times with rain and strong winds for all. One such Low pressure is shown to make an interesting diversion to the South of the UK later next week with the chance of an Easterly feed bringing the risk of snow for a time before a large Atlantic depression at Day 10 reclaims ground from the cold air again by next weekend. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts totally divorce the idea of the 216hr operational chart showing the pattern as before with a strong bias towards the likelihood of a deep depression out to the WNW of the British Isles with a SW airflow over all areas meaning troughs would be swinging NE across the UK in relatively mild air and strong winds at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow continuing West to East across the Atlantic and to the South of the UK, strengthening next week. Later it's orientation is shown to change to a more NE direction carrying it over the UK. In Summary tonight the weather remains very unsettled and Atlantic driven for the foreseeable future. The ECM operation does provide a little interest for cold lovers at the end of next week but the chances of it verifying is once more very small as the Atlantic prowess once more looks too strong later next week. The most concerning factor from current output rather than lack of cold prospects is the continuing large amounts of rainfall occurring over the UK with little likelihood of any relief for flood stricken communities anytime soon.

Good morning all. Here is the latest review of the latest outputs issued by the NWP for today Wednesday January 29th 2014 and raised from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a quieter day today and tomorrow though still with some outbreaks of rain and sleet today as the remains of the recent deep Low over Britain finally leaves the South Coast as it drifts away into Europe. The dry, cold and cloudy weather of tomorrow will be short-lived as a new rapidly deepening Low swings in from the Atlantic towards the NW on Friday spreading a large swathe of rain and strong winds across the area from the SW. This could fall as snow over Northern hills briefly and will be replaced by clearer and chilly weather with squally showers, wintry on hills over the weekend as the Low only slowly drifts away North from Northern Scotland. GFS then shows the entire remainder of it's run with repeated attacks of deepening Low pressure areas swinging in from the SW close to Western Britain and then moving further North each leaving blustery showers in their wake. The only glimmer of hope visible on this morning's operational run is that pressure rises somewhat later with the worst of the rain transferring to the NW with longer drier periods in the SE. Throughout the run temperatures at the surface will be close to average or a little above. The GFS Ensembles show complete agreement on the continuation of rain and strong winds from Atlantic depressions close to NW Britain throughout with far too much rain projected for comfort and temperatures on the plus side of average. UKMO shows another deepening Low having swung North up the Western side of the UK with an active front crossing east over the UK carrying another spell of heavy rain followed by showers. GEM also shows deeply unsettled weather though it does show the chance of another slip into a cold ESE flow across the NE as the next Low in the series takes a slightly different orientation. This means little for the South with more heavy rain but a short colder snap in the NE with some snow briefly as the rain in the South moves North. By the end of the run all areas are deeply unsettled with centre's all over the place with wet and windy weather for all. NAVGEM also offers no relief from the recent rains carrying repetitive sequences of weather North and NE over the UK with spells of rain and showers in association with Low pressure spinning NNE up the western coast of the UK. ECM also shows unsettled and often wet weather next week as Low pressure remains in total domination of the UK weather throughout next week and continuing to provide plenty of rainfall to areas that least need it through the period in average temperatures overall. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a continuation of the pattern of deep low pressure over the Atlantic and the UK bathed in relatively mild South or SW winds with heavy rain for all at times with the heaviest rains appearing to be most likely adjacent to the wind in the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Forecast remains as active as ever steaming across the Atlantic, strongly at times and then continuing East just to the South of the UK with just a gentle trending of the flow North over Southern Britain very late in the run. In Summary today the pattern remains unchanged from yesterday with Low pressure looking in total domination of conditions over the UK throughout the entire output, generally positioned to the NW. This promotes frequent periods of rain on troughs crossing North and East across all areas with the heaviest rainfall still most likely in the South and SW where it is least needed. Temperatures present no problems this morning with the average for the time of year achieved on most days with even some days above average if Southerly winds waft North with any brighter weather between weather systems.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show an agreement on conditions between now and Sunday inclusive as our current Low pressure area over Wales slipping away South and dissolving over the next 36 hours. After further outbreaks of rain and showers with increasing amounts of snow over the hills through tonight and tomorrow will give a window of dry weather on Thursday as we lie in the void between pressure systems. By Friday winds will of freshened quickly from the South as an active frontal system rattles in from the SW with periods of heavy rain and strong winds marching Northeast on Friday and followed by a rather cold and showery weekend again with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible over the hills. This weather will be in association with a deep Low trundling in towards the West of Scotland on Saturday, drifting slowly North on Sunday. GFS then shows next week and the rest of the run with Low pressure established to the NW of the UK with periods of rain interspersed by showers in temperatures close to or a little above average overall for all areas. The GFS Ensembles show complete support for an Atlantic based two weeks of weather from this Friday with Low pressure in one shape or another close to the NW feeding mild SW winds and spells of rain at times throughout the period. UKMO closes it's run tonight with yet another deep and deepening Low swing NE close to Western Ireland with another swathe of heavy rain sweeping North and East across the UK next Monday with temperatures close to average. GEM looks much like UKMO next Monday with a deep Low just to the West of Ireland bringing rain and strong winds followed by showers in the early days of next week. The rest of the period taking us out to next Friday shows yet more Low pressure areas with strong winds and heavy rain following the course of their predecessors and keeping all of Britain largely wet and windy with brighter showery interludes in between. Due to the SW wind it will never feel that cold with temperatures largely near average. NAVGEM is possibly the worst of all early next week with very deep Low pressure covering the Atlantic with the UK entirely in it's grip with periods of heavy rain and strong winds an all too regular feature. ECM tonight also shows very changeable conditions alternating between milder wet days and brighter, slightly chillier and more showery days with a little sunshine here and there, all the result of Low pressure areas spinning NE to the West of the UK. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight show a bias towards a high chance of Low pressure being very close to Western Ireland with the likelihood of a broad and unstable SSW flow over the UK with plenty of rain bearing troughs likely to be spreading rain North and East across the UK regularly in very average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong Jet flow carrying forward it's relentless track East over the Atlantic over or just to the South of the UK. In Summary tonight the output is relentless in churning out run after run of inclement weather in the way of heavy rain and strong winds seemingly relentlessly moving across the UK powered by successive depressions spinning NE close to West and NW Britain. With only very limited dry interludes between rain bands it is hard to see how any of the models verifying tonight would cause anything other than more headaches for those areas afflicted by floods of late. Temperatures as a result of SW winds are unlikely to be anything other than close to average with very little evidence in any output of drier or colder weather in sight tonight.

To me it is just as interesting as snow and ice as it makes up what is known as 'The weather'. This morning's charts can hardly be called boring and serve up a cocktail of interesting weather events over the coming weeks. Of course they are not the type of charts that many want to see and it is remarkable to me that how quiet it becomes on here when all chance of cold has gone as if 'weather' as a subject has been removed rather than snow. It would be helpful to 'newbies' if those that post disecting the atmosphere explaining why this and that will be responsible for bringing cold in the next week or so were to stay on here when the event doesn't happen to explain 'Why' it hasn't happened rather than disappearing from the forum altogether until the next cold shot is shown.

Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight runs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 28th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models remain adamant that the very unsettled weather is to persist over the UK for the next two weeks at least. In the short term our current depression near North Wales this morning continues to drift slowly South while maintaining a complex structure and therefore spinning spells of rain and showers across the UK with winds switching Easterly for all areas later tomorrow and into Thursday when colder air could turn any showers left to snow, especially over higher ground and in the East. By Friday a new Atlantic systems pushes a new trough in from the West with a spell of increasing Southerly winds and spells of rain falling as snow on Northern high ground for a time as it becomes less cold. GFS then shows a windy and cold weekend with strong and blustery Westerly winds and squally showers of rain and hail and snow on hills as deep Low pressure resides to the North of the UK. Through next week sees more Low pressure areas swinging NE to the West and NW of Britain with each bringing their own version of strong winds and rain followed by showers in temperatures never far from the seasonal average and strong winds at times. The flooding issues across parts of the UK will be exaggerated further by all this rain should it verify. The GFS Ensembles continue to back the story of the operational indicating further unsettled weather fuelled by Atlantic depressions. there will be copious rainfall over all areas at times and with temperatures rising somewhat later as the orientation of winds swing more from West to SW. UKMO closes it's run with the end of next weekend looking unsettled with an unstable SW flow with showers and the prospect of more general rain later as a new disturbance is shown to be moving NE towards the SW of the UK. GEM today shows a parent depression anchoring itself in mid Atlantic spinning small but active depressions East and North across the UK at times next week with spells of rain followed by showers likely for all in sometimes strong South or SW winds. NAVGEM also shows a similar structure to the synoptics next week though it does hold meaningful Low pressure slightly further away from the UK keeping the worst of flooding rains away with more occasional bursts interspersed with some drier spells especially towards the East and SE. ECM shows an increasingly disturbed period again next week following an unsettled weekend. After a brief respite early in the week Low pressure pushing up from the SW becomes part of a major centre in mid Atlantic later with spells of rain and showers on active troughs crossing NE over all areas later next week with no doubt more flooding issues likely but with compensatory temperatures close to average at worst. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today confirm the operational's sequence well with the likelihood from its ensembles of a deep Low pressure out to the NW and closing in on the UK with the resultant SW airflow keeping the UK wet and often windy but never overly cold. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow moving from West to East close to Southern Britain or over France throughout with a strengthening flow hinted at again in the second half of the run. In Summary this morning the charts have yet another troublesome look to them as all models show their own version of foretelling a very unsettled period with spells of heavy rain followed by showers and blustery winds from the SW. The one consolation South or SW strong winds will maintain temperatures close to average or indeed above at times and frost, ice and snow looks very unlikely beyond this week. Flooding will definitely remain a feature in parts of the UK and for those trying to tackle the flooding issues on the Somerset levels will have their work continue to be thwarted by the additional rains not required.

I think saying what you say is what happens when we all follow the operational runs of each model as gospel which have of course swung quite quickly from one solution to another of late. However, the ensembles have always been much less susceptible to such swings over recent weeks and at no time have shown anything resembling a full blown Easterly bias within their ensemble group and that is what seems to have come to pass. Follow the operational runs of course but always remember that without the support of it's ensemble group it is far less likely to verify unless of course it's member ensemble group support the operational. Using that basic rule of thumb will set you up for less of a fall when the operational's follow a sensational chart on one run with one that contradicts it's predecessor on the next and could make model watching a lot more enjoyable and less traumatic and less under and overwhelming for new members to the forum trying to learn. I am not a believer in FI is FI and never verifies. These time frames have and continue to provide good guidance to me and are excellent at picking up trends as long as one doesn't dwell on the specifics of each chart until it falls within more reliable time restraints. Of course sometimes even the ensembles don't pick up on trends until we are close to the event but in general you won't see such wild swings day to day as you will within the operational's.

Hi everyone. Here is the evening report on the latest 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014. All models show a slowly filling depression slipping slowly SSE over the UK and down over France by Thursday having largely filled up by then. Over the next 48 hours further very showery weather persists over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain with hail at times and sleet and snow over the high hills of the North. Winds will be brisk from a West or SW point in the South then an easterly point in the North by Wednesday. Thursday then sees a spell of rain and hills now move SW on an occluded front dying out over the SW later in the day. Eastern and Central Britain may see the isolated wintry shower or two briefly before a deepening depression to the NW of Britain sweeeps any cold weather away with freshening Southerly winds carrying rain East across the UK on Friday with some snow over the hills for a time. GFS then shows a very unsettled and windy spell with winds between South and West throughout with showers and longer spells of rain occurring with all too much frequency as deep Low pressure areas successively sweep NE over the UK with temperatures very close to average for early February. The GFS Ensembles show a wet and windy two weeks with the Atlantic in total control of the UK weather with Low pressure after Low pressure ensuring that the weather doesn't allow any recovery in conditions affecting the flooded areas of the SW. Temperatures will remain close to average and after a short chillier than average spell for a time this week we become rather milder than average in places later. UKMO tonight has conditions on Sunday governed by a Low pressure area moving away to the North taking it's showers with it and allowing a weak ridge of High pressure to cross East and bring a drier spell of weather for many ahead of a new Low pressure area approaching from the SW to start next week. GEM is also painting a very unsettled picture with showers or longer spells of rain in strong SW winds in association with Low pressure encircling over and to the NW of Britain. NAVGEM is very similar with Low pressure well established to the NW of Britain with strong winds and spells of rain and showers sweeping NE on regular occasions from this coming weekend. ECM too is very changeable but perhaps a little less deeply unsettled over the South for a time with average temperatures and winds from the South or SW for most of the time. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the likelihood of Low pressure being positioned just to the NW of the UK with a cyclonic South or SW flow across the UK in pressure levels at sub 1000mbs over the majority of the UK. With relatively mild winds from the SW and such low pressure we can only expect the prospect of plenty more rain and showers, probably heaviest in the areas that least need it, being the West and South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast maintains the flow close to or over Southern Britain over the coming few weeks. The flow will be just to the South through the firsts week before it shows signs of strengthening strongly again later in the low resolution part of the run. In Summary the Atlantic is gaining supremacy more and more with each run as the embers of the cold spell become reduced to one day on Thursday. With successive deep Low pressure areas spiralling around to the NW of Britain from all output to a greater or lesser degree the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet with showers or longer spells of rain in brisk, sometimes strong SW winds and temperatures recovering back to near or even a little above the seasonal average in the South at times.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Monday January 27th 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models illustrate Low pressure close to NW Scotland filling slowly and moving slowly South through the next 72 hours before clearing Southern Britain on Thursday. Through this period there will be further showers, heavy at times with thunder, hail, sleet and snow all possible, the latter mostly over the hills. By Thursday winds will of switched briefly Easterly with a cold raw feed making it's way across Britain before the trend is reversed by Friday as a return of the Atlantic influence begins to take shape. GFS shows very unsettled weather through the rest of its run with showers and longer spells of rain as new Low pressure areas spread East or NE across the UK with temperatures recovering to closer the average though still they could fall just below average at times. The GFS Ensembles show this morning that the predicted cold snap for this week is quickly evaporating into non event with strong support for a warm up next week to temperatures above average as winds switch to the SW and bring milder air up across the UK from more Southerly latitudes in the Atlantic. With low pressure in close attendance though amounts of rain will still be quite large for many. UKMO closes it's run today with Low pressure South of Iceland and a broad WSW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers crossing West to East across the nation regularly in average temperatures but brisk and occasionally strong winds. GEM too brings Low pressure back across the Atlantic towards NW Britain giving rise to further spells of rain and showers, some heavy in a blustery SW wind and average temperatures. NAVGEM too follows the course of action from the other output with milder Atlantic winds around Low pressure South of Iceland maintaining the sometimes wet and windy weather. ECM has Low pressure marginally further North next weekend with most of the heavier rain towards the NW but still some for the South too at times. With winds becoming SW with time and less strong less cold conditions will gradually feed across the UK from the West. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a bias towards Low pressure being positioned South of Iceland with all of the UK under a SW flow around a Low pressure of one type or another to the NW. This means I'm afraid the likelihood of the operational's less wet conditions for the South is not well supported and the prospect of quite a bit of rain from this mean set of charts remains this morning. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream shows the flow running ESE to the South of the UK before running East over Southern Europe. It's trend is to change orientation towards more of a ENE movement across the UK and away to more central Europe later. In Summary this morning it's more of the same I'm afraid as the Atlantic appears guaranteed now to make a complete comeback across the UK by the weekend. Models do diversify in specifics within this context but the message remains that the UK will continue to receive spells of rain and showers moving East into the UK quite regularly with only brief quieter and drier periods in between. After the whiff of a cold snap this week temperatures are shown to rise everywhere back to average levels or somewhat above in the South should GFS verify.

Good evening. Here is the report on today's midday outputs from the NWP for today Sunday January 26th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a deep depression close to NW Scotland with a cold and showery WNW flow over the UK. The showers will be heavy and wintry at times with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible almost anywhere but more likely near western coasts and hills. Through the first half of the week the parent Low pressure slips South down the Western side of the UK and then away to the South maintaining the unsettled and sometimes wet weather with temperatures on the low side of average. Pressure then builds strongly from Scandinavia briefly over Thursday and into Friday with drier and cold weather on an Easterly breeze which falls light later in the week allowing frost at night. GFS then takes us out of the week and into the weekend showing the first of yet another series of deep depressions, many ending up over the UK with the resultant wet and windy conditions keeping things over the flood stricken parts of the UK very depressing indeed. Temperatures remain close to normal but it will feel chilly at times and there will continue to be some snowfall on higher ground at times, especially in the North. The GFS Ensembles show a chillier period this week as the Low pressure responsible slips South of the UK. It then turns very Atlantic dominated again as Low pressure brings milder weather with periods of rain and showers in strong winds and temperatures returning to close to or slightly above average values later. UKMO shows the start of next weekend with a Low pressure trough having cleared to the East of the UK with a spell of rain having cleared to the East followed by NW winds and wintry showers across the North and west later. GEM shows a reversion back to Atlantic based weather next weekend with periods of rain and strong winds moving East and NE across the UK towards the end of the run replacing the rather chilly conditions of this week with temperatures rather closer to average. NAVGEM shows the only chance of colder air in association with a block to the East offering some resistance to the Atlantic onslaught next weekend as Low pressure areas disrupt and weaken in situ over the UK with rain bearing fronts slowing and stalling across the UK with rain and snow in places to begin with before all areas away from the NE become less cold and wet as a deep depression lies to the west of Ireland. ECM tonight also shows the Atlantic winning out next weekend as a front crosses East with rain then wintry showers. Then as we move into the new week the weather remains and if anything becomes more unsettled as Low pressure becomes ensconced across the UK once more. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight indicate a bias towards Low pressure to be most likely to be situated to the west of Scotland with SW winds and unstable air across the UK with rain and showers across ll areas and temperatures back up to average levels with any cold from the block to the East back to the other side of the North Sea. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's current trajectory for next week to the South of the UK. The trend in the latter stages of the output tonight is for the flow to strengthen yet again and shift position to cross Southern Britain in Week 2. In Summary tonight the weather is going to become rather chilly this week but apart from some scattered snow flurries there seems little chance of any widespread snowfall anywhere. However, it will feel more seasonal for a time as winds shift easterly for a short time after midweek. Later in the period the Atlantic regains supremacy with most models showing an easy victory for the Atlantic with little prospect of anything other than transient snowfall away from the high ground of the North and NE before temperatures return nearer to average and what's more important in my estimation a very real possibility of much more rainfall to add further misery to those areas afflicted by floods.

Yes your right and each one is more and more likely to be of snow and hail now rather than rain and sleet so could be a good night coming up. The strange thing is I can remember several occasions in recent years when some of our heaviest snow falling from the sky was witnessed in a cold showery Westerly. also folks it could be a good night for thunder too if things develop as they seem.

Just had a very heavy shower of hail and sleet. left an icy deposit under walls and window sills. Temperature just 3.1C and now with a dew point of 0.6C. This blob of cloud which is currently West of Ireland could become interesting if it holds itself together as it hits our area around dawn tomorrow. http://www.sat24.com/en/gb?ir=true

Yes looks like my earlier fears may be a tad premature as the air appears unstable enough for showers to pop up anywhere. so keep a look out snow could fall almost anywhere from now on tonight

The problem I see now for North somerset the wind has veered just a bit too much towards the NW keeping most showery activity away now over Devon and Cornwall and away from the Severn estuary. We in this part of the region need to see winds back a bit towards the West which is likely overnight but we may have to wait until after midnight to see anything much in the way of showers here from now on. Might be and hope I'm wrong but looking at the radar that's how i see it.