Gibby

Hi everyone. Here is today's look at the 12 midnight outputs from my perspective for today Sunday December 29th 2013. All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing quickly East over the UK today followed by an active frontal system moving equally quickly East later today and tonight with rain and SW gales returning tonight. Tomorrow shows the front having cleared all but the far SE with a strong WSW flow and scattered showers but the rain may hang on for some while in the SE. On New Years Eve another set of troughs spill East off the Atlantic crossing the UK with further rain and strong winds for a time before New Years Day is ushered in on the back of a strong WSW wind and showers, some heavy and prolonged. Throughout this period all models suggest average temperatures offset by the wind. GFS then takes us through the start of 2014 showing Low pressure after Low pressure crossing The Atlantic and the British Isles throughout the period bulldozed along by a very powerful Jet Stream over the Atlantic. This means incessant periods of wind and rain alternating with short drier and more showery weather when thing become a little colder at times. Winds are always very brisk and sometimes very strong with gales or severe gales at times. Even by the very last frames of the run the pattern remains the same with little evidence of any cessation to the prolonged, unsettled wet and windy spell. UKMO closes it's output this morning at Day 6 with Low pressure well established up to the NW of the UK with a strong and unstable SW flow littered with troughs, each delivering their own version of wet and windy spells as they cross East in the flow. Temperatures look very close to average for all. GEM today is much the same with little of any evidence to support any drier and colder weather lasting for any length of time before the next Low pressure returns wet and windy weather across all areas between the short drier and sometimes chillier interludes. NAVGEM shows a strong Jet flow too propelling Low pressure after Low pressure across the North Atlantic with troughs swept quickly East and NE in the strong SW flow with rain and showers continuing for all areas out to the end of the run. ECM also maintains a strong Jet stream rushing over the Atlantic spawning frequent development of Low pressures winding up to the North of the UK with strong winds and heavy rain carried East in the flow then followed by sunshine and showers with any ridge development flattened quickly by the strength of the overriding Jet flow. Temperatures will be largely close to average for early January. The GFS Ensembles in general maintain their Atlantic driven status this morning throughout their run with spells of rain at times in average temperatures, Low pressure to the North and NW and strong winds at times. The Jet Stream as already mentioned remains very strong and blowing due West to East across the Atlantic towards France and Southern England. It strengthens even further towards next weekend while maintaining a collision course with the UK. It then in the unreliable time limits show signs of weakening somewhat and drifting towards the North. In Summary today the outlook remains one of frequent periods of wet and windy weather when local flooding events are likely to make News headlines as there seems little respite in this sustained period of Atlantic driven weather. Some of the rain will be heavy and prolonged with gale or severe gale force winds at times making for some very unpleasant conditions. Brief ridges are shown by all models to temporarily quieten the weather but none last much more than 24 hours before the next rain event driven by a very strong Jet Stream arrives. With regard to the way out of this period of wet and windy weather it is hard to find anything significant that could change the pattern from today's output but if there was a way it looks like it would most likely arise from a ridging North of the Azores High over the Atlantic hinted at by some of the output in their latter stages but for this to be accomplished we need to see a much weaker Jet Stream at the United States end to enable this process to take place and currently that looks unlikely within the next few weeks.

Good morning everyone. Here is my interpretation of how I see events unfolding as we enter the first weeks of 2014 seen through the eyes of the midnight outputs of the NWP for Saturday December 29th 2013. All models show a steadily weakening SW to West airflow with showers as pressure rises over the next 24 hours. A ridge of High pressure crosses East early tomorrow with an active frontal system moving quickly in from the Atlantic later tomorrow with increasing SW winds and heavy rain sweeping East across all areas late tomorrow and overnight. Over Monday showery weather returns behind a cold front before more rain on Tuesday and later on New Years Day maintain the very wet conditions with renewed floods likely as we move into the New Year in association with deep Low pressure areas close to or over the UK in temperatures close to average. GFS takes us through the start of 2014 with a seemingly incessant barrage of Low pressure after Low pressure streaming in on a strong Jet flow and delivering spell after spell of heavy rain and strong winds with only brief drier weather in between, these most likely later when transient ridges of High pressure cross over briefly ahead of the next system. UKMO today show Low pressure covering all of the Atlantic Ocean North of the Azores with strong SW to West winds and series of troughs crossing quickly East or NE in the flow. Areas of rain and showers will be heavy at times with strong winds too making for an unpleasant and wet start to 2014. GEM also shows a sustained and prolonged wet period with Low pressure permanently present over or just to the North of Britain with fronts bringing spells of rain and showers repeatedly East in the strong flow throughout the runs later stages. NAVGEM also shows no remorse with with spells of heavy rain too occurring in very strong WSW winds and temperatures close to average. ECM today also paints a worrying picture for those looking for relief from recent floods as it indicates a very unsettled phase with frequent bouts of gales and heavy rains as trough after trough crosses East over the UK in strong to gale Westerly winds and temperatures largely near to normal. The GFS Ensembles indicate the Atlantic remains in top gear as it continues to pummel the UK with Low pressure after Low pressure with rain and strong winds at times from all members with temperatures close to the long term mean. The Jet Stream continues to blow very strongly out of the States and across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain for the next week or so. If anything it then slips very slightly South across France as the UK remains under a broad and deep Atlantic trough. In Summary today if anything the resolve towards wet and windy conditions persisting has strengthened overnight. All models indicate some very worrying synoptics for those that are looking for relief from recent floods as next week looks thoroughly wet and stormy at times with strong winds reaching severe gale force in places. In Week 2 small changes to the far NE in the Arctic only serve to pull depressions even further down over the UK from GFS and landing us under a deep trough with further wet and sometimes stormy conditions through Week 2 as well. All other models just continue the incessant feed of wind and rain East across Britain too 10 days from now. We really do need a break from this pattern soon as flooding issues are going to become unprecedented if some of this morning's output verify..lets hope for some moderation in the theme soon.

Good evening folks. Here's my evening attempt to disect the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Friday December 27th 2013. All models shape a broadly similar pattern between now and New Year with the deep depression close to Northern Scotland filling and moving away slowly North tonight and tomorrow. In it's wake lies a showery WSW flow with the most showers in the West and near the coasts with some lengthy dry spells in the East. Later on Sunday a new trough moves in from the West with another band of wind and outbreaks of rain for all areas over Sunday night returning to sunshine and showers on Monday. On Tuesday Low pressure close to the West sends a new spell of rain and strong winds NE across all areas with New Years Day seeing much more of the same mix of outbreaks of rain and showers in brisk SW winds and temperatures close to average. GFS then shows the post New Year period with a sustained windy and unsettled picture as Low pressure continues to be shown crossing the UK or within the proximity with unrelenting spells of rain and showers in average temperatures. Late in the run pressure is shown to build down from the North or NE and allow troughs from the West to come up against a tongue of colder air over and to the NE of Britain meaning a much increased chance of a break in the Atlantic train to something which could see some places receiving some snow at times in much colder air as mild Atlantic troughs come up against this colder air. UKMO tonight closes it's run next Thursday with Low pressure out to the NW with a cyclonic SW flow over Britain carrying troughs NE overall areas with rain, heavy at times in brisk SW winds. GEM shows a trend towards something colder too later as pressure builds over the Arctic and forces Low pressure areas further South and sends them SE over Europe. On this run the UK is in the battleground area with rain coming up against cold air over North and East Britain and potentially giving rise to some snow for some. NAVGEM unavailable tonight ECM shows a mobile Atlantic flow as Low pressure continues to pass Eastwards over or to the North of he UK with rain and showers for all in sometimes very windy conditions and temperatures close to average. The GFS Ensembles remain uninspiring for cold fans as the vast majority of members still maintain a very active Atlantic sending frequent bands of rain across Britain in average temperatures. The colder outcome of the operational member was not supported by hardly any of it's colleagues but shouldn't be discounted as it has some support from GEM later. The Jet Stream shows a much more mobile pattern as it continues it's unrelenting path across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and on to Europe. It does show strong signals of sinking further South over Europe through Week 2 and this may involve sinking the flow a little way South of the UK too. In Summary there is still a lot of support for the mobile Atlantic and sometimes stormy weather type to continue with spells of rain and showers along with temperatures close to average. However, there are a few grains of comfort for cold fans as the GFS operational and GEM shows some build of pressure to the North and NE late in their runs but they look very much in isolation at this stage. Having said that from small acorns big oak trees grow so if these rogue signals increase in frequency between the output in the days to come and gain more cross model support then they might be taken more seriously.

Good morning. Here is the reports on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 27th 2013. All models show a deep depression to the NW of Britain today moving slowly away North over the next few days but maintaining a showery Westerly flow over the UK with some of these falling wintry in the North. Strong winds will slowly moderate. By Sunday a new Low brings further fronts NE with rain in tow for all areas and further strong winds. The pattern then continues up to the New Year with all models showing rain bands mixed with showery interludes in basically quite strong SW winds and average temperatures. GFS then shows New Year celebrations taking place under windy and often wet conditions with SW winds continuing to blow and maintaining average temperatures. Then as we move through Week 1 of 2014 and into Week 2 little change is shown with Low pressure continuing to race over the Atlantic over or to the North of the UK with spells of rain alternating with brighter and clearer spells with showers, wintry on hills in the North. UKMO ends it's run with the chart for next Thursday showing Low pressure over the entire North Atlantic with one small and vigorous centre moving NE then North up the spine of Britain bringing more wet and windy conditions well into the New Year. GEM today shows very unsettled weather under deep and complex Low pressure to the North then over the UK before sliding it SE late in the run towards NW Europe. There would be spells of wet and windy weather with showery spells intermixed. With time the air would turn colder with wintry showers for many by Day 9 before a toppling ridge from the Azores High gives a quieter interlude before new Low pressure steams across the Atlantic towards Britain soon after the end of Day 10. NAVGEM shows Low pressure out to the NW in the first few days of 2014 with a strong WSW flow bringing spells of rain and strong winds across the UK throughout. ECM today shows a wet and often windy start to 2014 too with just relatively short drier spells as ridges attached to an Azores High cross the UK for a day or two in the first week before by Day 10 the chart looks like the UK could be staring down the barrel of another very wet and windy period with Westerly gales. The GFS Ensembles show very stubborn resilience to any form of change from an Unsettled Atlantic based pattern with rain at times and temperatures close to the long term mean for areas North and South of the British Isles. The Jet Stream continues to trek across the Atlantic Ocean in the general direction of the British Isles for the foreseeable future. It does shift briefly South at times allowing trough to dig deeper down over the UK but not sufficiently so on this morning's output to offer any form of pattern change by encouraging any meaningful High Level blocking to the East and NE to affect the UK anytime soon. In Summary the current pattern is maintained this morning with spells of wet and windy weather alternating with spells of slightly colder weather with sunshine and showers. Temperatures look like staying largely close to average over the next two weeks but that doesn't exclude the odd colder interlude from polar maritime incursions giving some snow on Northern hills at times. Overall the prospect of any cessation of this powerful Atlantic train anytime soon remains low with an unsupportive Jet flow orientation and strength coupled with the resulting ever present High pressure belt well to the South keeping a strong Westerly flow over the Atlantic towards the UK.

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the Boxing Day Evening 12 noon reports for today December 26th 2013. All models show a deepening Low pressure moving ENE close to Northern Scotland tomorrow with a strong Westerly flow across Britain. With heavy rain crossing quickly East overnight clearing through the morning it's a mix of sunshine and showers for the rest of tomorrow and Saturday before a ridge crossing East on Sunday drier things up briefly before cloud and rain spills back NE late in the day. GFS then shows the last two days of 2013 as very unsettled with Low pressure up to the NW steering troughs NE across Britain with further rain at times in a blustery but less strong than of late SW wind. New Year 2014 shows little change in the overall pattern with wind and rain continuing to feature regularly over the UK as depressions cross the UK from the West or NW. With time some short colder interludes with more in the way of wintry showers is possible with a Northerly flow at the end of the run giving the UK the best shot of sleet and snow showers for a time as High pressure builds close to the SW. UKMO closes tonight's run with Low pressure out to the West with a South or SW flow across the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures close to average. GEM also shows a very zonal pattern persisting with High pressure well to the Southwest and a succession of Low pressure areas continuing Eastwards to the North of the UK throwing trough after trough across the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures. NAVGEM also show the same zonal synoptic setup with Low pressure areas to the North of the UK repeatedly bringing wet and windy weather across the UK with rain and showers for all in average temperatures. ECM tonight shows a short battleground scenario between troughs of Low pressure moving in from the West against a High pressure block to the North and NE. This seems temporary as the Atlantic Low pressure bandwagon train seems too strong coupled with a strong Azores High pressure area which on this occasion overpowers any blocking to the NE. The GFS Ensembles show little support for any major pattern shift anytime soon. There is support for the Jet Stream to flow more SE over Europe and this may allow some longer colder interludes to affect many parts of the UK later in the period. The Jet Stream forecast continues the flow in it's general current location for the next week or so before it is shown to move South particularly at the European end with some cold pooling possible over the UK later. In Summary there is very little support for anything desperately cold within the next couple of weeks with the general consensus being for a continuation of the unsettled and rainy weather with colder conditions with sunshine and showers at others. With a strong Azores High we are left to look for conditions over Europe at the moment to produce something that could end the current unsettled Atlantic spell and though there are some hints of that happening on some runs tonight any success is likely to be thwarted by an over riding Jet flow and the Azores High as illustrated at the end of the operational run from ECM and the far end of GFS though admittedly from rather different situations to one another.

Good morning everyone. Here is the Boxing Day morning report on what to expect as predicted by the midnight outputs of NWP for today Thursday December 26th 2013. All models show a weak ridge crossing East today with a new deepening depression crossing the Atlantic towards NW Britain tonight and tomorrow carrying thick cloud, rain and severe gales across the UK. The winds look likely to be less severe across Southern Britain though this time round. By tomorrow morning a cold front crosses quickly East bringing all of the UK under a strong and showery Westerly flow with this weather lasting well into the weekend. On Sunday a weak ridge crosses East damping down the showers ahead of the next series of troughs with rain and strong winds returning later on Sunday and into Monday. Temperatures will range from average levels in the South and a little below in the North where snow may fall from the showers on the hills at times. GFS then shows the last few days of 2013 with Low pressure out to the NW with rain at times, especially towards the North and West before clearer showery weather turns up for New Years Day itself with more of a Westerly breeze. Into the first week of 2014 and the weather remains very unsettled and rather colder as depressions take on a more SE track across the UK enhancing the colder element on the rear of each depression and allowing snowfall to reach lower levels at times in among the continuing large amounts of rainfall. UKMO closes it's Boxing Day morning run with Low pressure well established South of Iceland on New Years Day with a broad SW flow with rain at times carried on troughs moving NE on a strong SW wind. It would feel relatively mild, especially in the South. GEM also continues very unsettled weather into the first week of 2014 though the influence of High pressure to the South and SE is drawing nearer with the emphasis of the very heaviest of the rain shifting more towards NW Britain later with all areas feeling rather milder temperatures at times. NAVGEM enters 2014 showing a depression crossing East over Southern Britain with chilly and showery conditions with a longer spell of rain crossing East on New Years Day. ECM today shows an unsettled start to 2014 with rain at times followed by chilly and showery conditions for a day or two in the first week. At the end of the run High pressure from the SW reaches Southern Britain for a time with frost and fog possibilities in a quiet and dry spell here with an attached ridge drying things up in the North too. The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern over the next two weeks showing changes in the pattern over the next few weeks will be slow and not very noticeable to the majority of folk on the ground. The Atlantic bandwagon remains well in control carrying depressions across the Atlantic to the North throughout with just the hint of a temporary more SE track to the Jet flow deeper into Europe for a time with the risk of colder injections at times before the pattern resets late in the run. The Jet Stream shows no change in the orientation of the flow for the foreseeable future carrying it West to East across the Atlantic and close to or over the UK. The flow does dig South across Europe later in the outputs but remains high across the Atlantic maintaining the milder feed across the UK. In Summary the weather remains Atlantic driven with a continuing changeable pattern alternating between rain bands crossing East and a sunshine and shower mix in between. With winds generally from a Westerly point the weather looks never overly cold with just polar maritime air delivering some wintry showers to Northern hills at times. There is some suggestion that High pressure could edge up closer to Southern Britain later removing the deeply unsettled weather of late to something drier and much less windy and still not cold though this theory is balanced with the chance of Low pressure slipping SE over Europe and bringing the UK into more cold northerly components and attendant wintry weather for a time.

Good evening folks. Here is this evening's look at the midday outputs of the NWP output for Christmas Day December 25th 2013. All models continue to model very changeable conditions from now all the way up to the New Year with spells of rain and very windy weather with severe gales on Friday. There will be plenty of rain on Friday and again later on Sunday and also at various other stops on the way up to the New Year. At other times there will be sunshine and showers, wintry on hills in the North. Temperatures will remain close to average and rather colder in the North at times and rather mild at times in the South especially early next week. GFS shows the New Year period windy and wet with Low pressure crossing the UK on New Years Day with a showery NW flow following with snow showers on Northern hills. Through the first week of the year the weather remains very changeable and often wet with sunshine and wintry showers alternating with heavier and more persistent rain. Temperatures will gradually turn rather colder with time extending the wintry risk to lower levels later. UKMO closes tonight's run with a mild and windy SW flow carrying rain at times across the UK in the continuing unsettled mood. GEM continues wet and unsettled all the way up to Day 10 which of course includes the New Year.There will be ample spells of rain and showers for all with Low pressure always close to Northern Britain in a broad Westerly flow. NAVGEM too shows unsettled weather persisting over the UK with rain or showers at times, the showers heavy and wintry on northern hills at times. ECM tonight also shows unsettled weather continuing up to the New Year with rain and showers at times with brief drier spells in between and temperatures close to average. later there are signs of a change to rather colder NW winds and wintry showers in 10 days time. The GFS Ensembles show the changeable and average temperature type weather conditions going throughout the run with little sign of any pattern change away from the general idea and bias towards low pressure remaining close to the North of the UK with wind and rain at times. The Jet Stream forecast remains unchanged from this morning with an incessant flow from the West over or just to the South of the UK. In Summary the weather will continue changeable and unsettled over the next couple of weeks. Events for the period up to the New Year are quite agreed upon between the models but changes thereafter are more varied but quite modest with little concrete evidence of any shift towards anything colder and more traditionally wintry in the near future.

Happy Christmas everyone. Some active showers out there. It's a pity the cold air inland kills them quite quickly after making landfall. Certainly cold enough for a little bit of wintriness almost at any level. I have noticed that the ingress inland of these showers has increased over the last couple of hours. You never know there could be a late surprise for a few places after dark.

Good morning and a very Merry Christmas to you all. Here is the latest look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 25th 2013. All models show a slightly showery SW flow across the UK with most inland places away from windward coasts having a dry Christmas Day with showers heavy and wintry near mostly Southern and Western Coasts and over Scotland. Pressure continues to rise gently tonight and for a time tomorrow but many places will be dry and bright. Later tomorrow a new Low is shown to approach NW Britain deepening rapidly and giving rise to a repeat of the wind and rain of Monday, come Friday with severe gales and heavy rain making a return to all areas before clearer showery conditions arrive in the West at the end of the day. The weekend then stays unsettled and windy with showers and sunny intervals and chilly weather with some wintry showers and gales slowly decreasing through the weekend. By the end of Sunday yet another Low pressure is shown to approach from the West. GFS then shows a wet and windy start to next week as the next Low anchors up to the NW with SW winds with gales in exposure bring further rain and showers NE across all areas up to the New Year. Then the first week and a bit of 2014 continue to be very changeable and sometimes wet as further Low pressure crosses East to the North of the UK with rain and showers at times with the chance of some sleet or snow at times on the hills of the North especially later. UKMO this morning shows deep Low pressure centred three to four hundred miles to the West of Ireland with a South or SW flow carrying a trough NE across the UK with rain at times for all though at this stage abnormally strong winds may not be an issue. GEM shows a continuation of the fast moving Low pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and to the North of the UK with strong and locally gale force winds for much of the time continuing to carry spells of rain followed by showers in average temperatures and restricting any snowfall to the hills and mountains of the North. NAVGEM is very similar with no let up in the sometimes wet and windy weather a week from now. ECM keeps things very unsettled with a deep trough over the UK later in it's run showing very little signs of releasing it's grip. It does suck in rather colder air down across the UK from the NW which would turn some of the outbreaks of rain and showers to a more wintry mix especially over the hills from a weeks time. The GFS Ensembles show very little sign of any pattern change anytime soon as the Atlantic train is allowed to continue it's current progression aided by a powerful Jet Stream and huge temperature contrasts over the other side of the Atlantic. High pressure may play a bigger role between the Low's offering some brief respite in the South for a day or two on occasion but overall the suggestion from the pack remains an unsettled one in average temperatures. The Jet Stream remains it's undulating sine wave pattern across or just South of the UK spawning deep Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic for some time to come. There is little overall sign of a significant enough change in this pattern to indicate any pattern change within the time frame of this morning's output . In Summary it all looks more of the same this morning. All models show little if any sign of relenting from the often wet pattern of rain followed by showers as each successive Low crosses over. Thankfully the risk of damaging winds look less likely though winds will remain lively and gale force at times. Temperatures look like holding close to average throughout with just a few brief colder incursions shown from the NW on occasion when temperatures fall just a little below average supporting snow on Northern hills. Equally though there may be some milder days in the South as mild sectors pass through. All in all though the models have provided us with a very standard mobile Atlantic based outlook this Christmas morning. So my best advice is take a break from the models today and have a very merry Christmas with all your nearest and dearest.

Good evening. Here is the Christmas Eve report on today's NWP midday output. All models show an intense Low close to NW Scotland moving slowly North and filling slowly. A rather cold SW flow covers the UK with most showers over the Christmas period hugging coastal areas facing South and West and it maybe that many inland areas stay largely dry and bright with some sunshine by day with a touch of frost by night. Where showers do occur they could be heavy and wintry over any high ground above 250 mtrs. By the end of Boxing Day a new storm is shown to move in off the Atlantic with further very strong winds and heavy rain commencing 48 hrs from now in the SW and spreading quickly NE to all areas overnight. On Friday the rain will clear East to sunshine and showers in a strong WSW wind again and snow will fall from these showers too over the hills in the North. This showery theme then continues over next weekend with the showers dying away on Sunday as a weak ridge is shown to cross from the West. GFS then shows another storm system to take us up to the New Year with yet another Low pressure coming into the UK from the West. This then fills in situ over the days up to the New Year and into 2014 itself with showers or outbreaks of rain, falling as snow over the hills in decreasing winds over the period. Low pressure then pulls down from the NW and settles towards the SE of Britain by the end of the run with a change to much colder and unsettled weather with sleet and snow becoming much more prominent should it verify in a cold and blustery NE flow with High pressure having built North through mid Atlantic. UKMO tonight shows next Monday with a new Low pressure in the Central North Atlantic with a WSW flow over the UK. Troughs in the flow will continue to bring rain at times and it will fall as snow for a time over Northern hills. In the South it looks somewhat milder later. GEM shows a continuing flow of Low pressure moving West to East across Britain from a weeks time though with less explosive force as recently. There would be spells of rain and showers for all but it should be less windy than recently. NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure still well in control with centres close to or over the UK with plenty of wind and rain for many areas under temperatures close to average. ECM keeps the unsettled and changeable theme going later in it's run though the charts look far less stormy than recently. Nevertheless there will be troughs crossing East in the Westerly flow with rain or showers at times in temperatures never far from average though it may turn rather cold towards the end of the run in a more NW flow. The GFS Ensembles show that the weather remains changeable for the next 10 days. There is some support between it's own members of a cool off at the end of the run when it would become rather less wet though the operational is at the extreme end of this scenario. The Jet Stream shows the flow remaining close to or just to the South of the UK tonight keeping the UK under a trough throughout the run meaning Low pressure close by. Evidence of a build of pressure in the Atlantic is shown towards the end of Week 2. In Summary tonight the weather stays on an unsettled track for a good while to come. After a relatively quiet and showery Christmas another powerful storm looks likely later this week and the weekend before less stormy conditions are trended thereafter. Nevertheless there seems little evidence of any settled conditions with further rain expected off and on throughout the next few weeks with the saturated ground having little chance to recover. GFS does show some signs of a pattern change late in it's outputs supported by some of it's own ensemble members. However, I feel that we need such a trend developed on over the coming days and given more cross model support once such a change comes within all models time range. A Very Merry Christmas To You All

Yesterdays storm has left and my data reveals that it was the windiest day I have experienced in my current location which is 7 years and the most rainfall in a day for at least 15 years. I recorded two 59mph gusts, one at 1pm and the other around 10:00 last night. Yesterday's rain amassed 49mm and the highest 24 hour total up to 7am this morning was 57mm. No visual damage to our property but it has had an indirect effect on me in as much as I am unable to update my website this morning due to power failures at my servers end in the SE of England.

Good morning folks. Here is todays report taken from the 12 midnight outputs of NWP for today Christmas Eve 24th December 2013. All models show an intense depression close to the far NW of Scotland with a showery WSW flow over the UK following the stormy fronts clearance over the SE later this morning. The showers will be heavy but scattered with some snow over the hills at times. The strong winds will gradually subside away from the far NW by tonight. Christmas Day and Boxing Day are shown with our deep depression filling to the North and moving away with both days being dry and bright days for many though coastal areas of the South and West may see scattered showers, still wintry over the hills. It will feel rather cold. Late on Boxing Day another rapidly deepening Low is shown to drift past Western Ireland and Scotland with yet more heavy rain and severe gales over Boxing Night clearing to sunshine and showers, wintry on hills again over Friday and Saturday. GFS then shows a cool and showery end to the weekend as winds blow down from the NW though much lighter than previously. Then as next week begins it's back to square 1 as a new deepening Low swings NE over the North with strong winds and rain for all followed by showers, turning wintry from the North on New Years Eve. Then through the extended parts of it's output the run keeps very changeable conditions going over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain in near average temperatures but it looks less stormy than recently. UKMO closes it's run with Low pressure up to the NW of Britain with another set of fronts carrying strong winds and rain across the UK to start next week. GEM today also keeps Low pressure belts to the North and NW with strong WSW flows over the UK with spells of rain and showers for all in average temperatures. NAVGEM is similar with deep Low pressure ending up just to the West of the UK a week from now with wet and windy weather still the most dominant weather events for the UK in temperatures near average. ECM this morning also shows very changeable conditions persisting into the New Year with fast moving depressions crossing the Atlantic to the NW or indeed over the UK maintaining the very frequent areas of rain followed by showers type weather going. The depressions are shown to be less deep though and as a result the winds should not be as fierce later. The GFS Ensembles trend very slightly downward in the 850 values late in the run but there is little overall evidence of a major shift towards anything generally cold. Instead there is less heavy rain shown later in the run with the emphasis shifting more towards the NW later. The Jet Stream profile remains wrong for cold over the UK in the coming two weeks. The flow remains strong and while it remains just South of the UK currently it moves back North over the UK later and tracks in a NE direction across or to the NW of Britain late in the run. In Summary the weather remains very unsettled for the foreseeable future. There is still room for more severe weather in the pre New Year period as more storm systems develop very deeply to the NW. However, as time goes the depressions look less intense as we move into the New Year and while they will still each bring their own version of wind and rain to many areas they look less inclined to bring severe gales. However, the further rain they bring will only exasipate the already saturated ground to maintain a flood risk in places. For those looking for colder weather I have nothing to report this morning as if anything the amount of wintriness in the showers on the passing of each storm system looks likely to become more and more restricted to the ususal locations over the mountains of the North with temperatures holding up well towards average in the basic West or SW flow.

Good evening from a very stormy West Country. Here is the latest look at the midday outputs from the NWP output for today Monday December 23rd 2013. All output tonight shows a very intense depression West of the Hebrides with some exceptionally low central pressure readings over the next 12-24 hours as its is shown to move gently North. The spell of torrential rain and severe gales continues across Southern Britain for another 6-9 hours before a clearance from the West later in the night sees wind speeds fall and the rain turn more showery as it turns somewhat colder. In the far NW storm force winds for a time later tonight and at first tomorrow are possible. All areas are shown to see a windy day tomorrow as the Low still has total influence over all areas tomorrow with a mix of sunshine and squally showers for all. Through Christmas day and Boxing Day the weather relaxes somewhat in a sunshine and showery mix with some welcome relief from strong winds for most. By Friday a new intense Low moves NE close to Western Ireland deepening explosively and returning rain and severe gales once more to all areas through the course of the day. the weekend then becomes rather colder and showery again in a blustery Westerly flow. GFS then shows a continuation of wet and stormy conditions through the period from the weekend and over the New Year with continued flooding and high wind speeds still very newsworthy at times. Once into the New Year though still very changeable and often wet the weather becomes less stormy and steadily colder at times with some sleet or snow featuring across the UK and not always just over the hills. UKMO tonight shows Sundays chart with yet another rapidly deepening depression moving NE close to Northern Ireland with severe gales renewed over Southern Britain and heavy, persistent rain sweeping NE to England and Wales through the day. GEM tonight shows a barrage of Low pressure and strong winds across the UK on the run up to the New Year and some way beyond with an awful lot of rain and periods of very strong winds the main ingredients of the weather with academically average temperatures throughout. NAVGEM too shows no let up in the windy and very wet weather at times from Christmas out to New Years Eve at least. ECM also shows very changeable and often wet and windy weather well into the New Year though the intensity of the wind may reduce somewhat as we move into 2014. The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions continuing throughout with wet weather at times for all. The very worst of the rain may lessen with time. The colder weather that develops from the operational late in the run is not well supported by other members of the ensemble group. The Jet Stream continues to power Eastward over the Atlantic and around the British Isles throughout the run with the usual oscillating pattern North then South very indicative of very changeable and stormy weather. In Summary there is still a lot of support for a lot more very strong winds and heavy rain for a good while yet before things improve somewhat. It is unlikely that any improvement of note in the current pattern will take place this side of the New Year and with a very strong Jet Stream in conjunction with stark temperature contrasts over the States showing little signs of relenting the pattern could well last out towards the middle of January before any significant change arrives.

Just touched 59mph at Radstock. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/RadstockUK/

Just reported gusts of 51mph on the hill overlooking Radstock. It really is wild out there. Why does it always coincide with rubbish collection day. Here's the latest from my station. http://www.weatherlink.com/user/RadstockUK/

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 23rd 2013. All models show Low pressure deepening explosively over the Atlantic as it winds up to be West of Scotland later today pushing very strong winds, gale, severe gale or even storm force winds into the NW later. In addition a spell of persistent and heavy rain extends NE across England and Wales this morning and on to other areas soon after. Rain will be heavy and prolonged with some flooding issues possible in the South and SW through the day. Later on clearer, colder and more showery weather will spread across Northern and Western areas reaching the SE on Christmas Eve with a windy and showery day with some showers heavy with hail, thunder and sleet or snow over the hills. On Christmas Day and Boxing Day the weather will become quieter with showers more likely towards Southern and Western coasts and hills where they may be wintry and heavy in places. Some inland parts may stay dry and bright with some weak winter sunshine especially in the East. GFS then shows another powerful storm sweeping gales and heavy rain NE again over the end of the week and next weekend. Further flooding and structural damage is possible with wintry showers over Northern hills once the main frontal activity has passed. The rest of the run tonight indicates further rather windy and wet weather at times as further depressions sweep wind and rain followed by showers across the UK with temperatures close to average at first but becoming rather colder from the NW later. UKMO early next Sunday shows a strong WNW wind delivering sunshine and showers ahead of a ridge of High pressure drying things up briefly later in the day, in turn followed by another Atlantic depression to begin next week. GEM today keeps the train of Low pressure from Scandinavia to Canada going late next weekend and into the New Year week with rain at times on a blustery and strong West or SW wind though not as stormy as recently. NAVGEM closes next week and weekend off with plenty more rain at times, some heavy as Low pressure remains well established over the Atlantic to Northern Europe. Winds will slowly become less strong but still reaching gale force at times as the West or SW flow over the UK remains dominant. ECM today maintains unsettled weather on the run up to the New Year with Low pressure trundling across the Atlantic. However, late in the period pressure rises from the South over the Atlantic and it looks possible that the procession of low pressure will end soon after the New Year with maybe somewhat colder and drier conditions as pressure rises over the UK under a Northerly towards the end of next week. The GFS Ensembles for the first time trend down towards the end of the output with some members going into rather colder weather as we move into the New Year, especially the Control run. There are still some windy and rainy options on the table too, including the operational but overall things may become rather drier and brighter into the New Year with some frosts possible at least for a time. The Jet Stream continues it's slow movement South to blow East to the South of the UK over the Christmas period. It's position then sets up a pattern much less biased towards SW to NE motion taking it on a more of a West to East track with it's position much further South over Continental Europe in Week 2. In Summary the weather remains distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy over the next week with a Christmas lull in the stormy activity over Christmas and Boxing Day though still with showers, wintry on hills. With some colder air over Britain at times up to the New Year the heavier showers could lead to some wintry weather over the hills almost anywhere but most likely over the North. Longer term the risk of stormy weather recedes but the pattern remains largely unsettled as shallower Lows and fronts continue crossing the UK into the New Year though there are some small changes indicated this morning which could lead to a pattern change soon after the end of this morning's output to something rather colder and drier.

Good morning everyone. Here is this morning's look at the synoptics for the UK over the run up to Christmas, Christmas itself, run up to the New Year and into the first days of 2014 data supplied from the midnight outputs from the NWP for Sunday December 22nd 2013. All models show a showery WSW flow today which will deliver scattered showers and breezy weather to all areas with some heavy and wintry showers over the hills of the North. Tonight shows winds backing SW as a rapidly deepening depression in mid Atlantic moves NE towards the NW of Scotland tomorrow with a very wet and windy spell for all with severe gales and potentially storm force winds in the NW for a while. Clearer and more showery weather will reach the West and North by dusk. Christmas Eve then shows all areas in a very windy and showery WSW flow again with showers, turning progressively wintry on Northern and Central hills through the day. Any remaining rain from the previous day will clear the SE. Christmas Day and Boxing Day shows isobars opening up over the UK giving much less windy days with as a result many inland areas staying dry and bright in rather cold winter sunshine. However, Western coasts and hills will be peppered with showers and where these are allowed to drift inland on prevailing winds they could be heavy and wintry. Late on Boxing Day winds will back SW and freshen again markedly with Friday seeing another very deep depression close to NW Britain with another area of very strong winds and rain followed by showers the order of the period as we approach next weekend. GFS then show the rest of the period between Christmas and the New Year as remaining unsettled and windy with showers and periods of rain. Though rather chilly at times in the North under the more showery interludes the South looks like it could turn milder as pressure builds over Europe. Into the first days of the New Year a brief colder and drier interlude is quickly squashed away South as Westerly winds return though with pressure staying high not far from the South all areas will become quite mild with rainfall much more restricted to far Northern and NW areas. UKMO closes it's output for next Saturday with deep Low pressure up to the West of Scotland with a strong to gale WSW wind blowing everywhere with further rain or showers in very average temperatures. GEM shows pressure building over Europe next weekend and while this period will be still influenced by Low pressure North of the UK with attendant rain and showers with time the worst of the weather will transfer more towards the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts slowly turn less wet and rather milder. NAVGEM remains very unsettled next weekend with Low pressure still covering sea areas North of Scotland with strong and blustery West or SW winds over Britain with heavy rain at times in largely very average temperatures. ECM keeps the unsettled and windy theme going throughout the post Christmas period and up to the New Year with Low pressure close to northern Britain throughout. As a result there will plenty more wind and rain though the threat of damaging winds should steadily diminish. Temperatures look like holding close to average for all. The GFS Ensembles today show virtually no chance of any significant cold weather developing on a natuionwide scale at all over the last week of this year nor the first week of the New Year. Instead uppers are locked solid at average levels as far as the eye can see and with plenty of rain spikes from all members at times the Atlantic remains in complete control of this seasons UK Winter so far. The damaging winds of the current period do look like becoming less of an issue as we reach the New Year but rainfall amounts could continue to be a problem on flood plains and other susceptible low lying areas. The Jet Stream continues to pump actively out of the States for the duration of this morning's output. It oscillates between a position over and to the South of the UK over the next week in response to the ebb and flow of the low pressure systems to it's North. In Week 2 a temporary weakening of strength is short lived as a new surge is shown crossing the Atlantic towards the UK later in week 2. In Summary the weather remains locked in an Atlantic pattern which looks like refusing to lie down. There are plenty more active and powerful Low pressure areas between now and the New Year each producing their own version of gales, heavy rain followed by showers with the chance of wintry showers over the hills at times, largely in the North. In Week 2 there are some signs of pressure rising over the Meditteranean Sea and pulling the Jet flow more NE towards Scandinavia and as a result sucking milder air across the South and East while maintaining quite unsettled but less stormy conditions however, this all looks tentative at the moment. The one constant between all the models being that not one shows any excursion into anything cold and wintry so we are left stuck looking at wind and rain events for the foreseeable and staring at the computer models outermost limits for seeking any embryonic signs of change. I think the 240 hr mean chart sums up our problem for cold weather fans this morning considering this is a chart for 10 days from now. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

No real light at the end of a very long tunnel from the ECM 240 mean tonight imo. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday December 21st 2013. All models continue to show a very volatile spell of weather on the road to Christmas with a very showery day tomorrow especially in the West followed by a thoroughly awful day on Monday as a vicious area of Low pressure winds up close to NW Britain with severe gales and storm force gusts affecting some areas through the day along with heavy and locally torrential spells of rain. Following this there will be heavy and squally showers rushing through on the wind with hail, thunder, sleet and snow all possible on Christmas Eve. Through Christmas Day and Boxing Day lighter winds look likely with showers more scattered as a result and confined to coastal areas adjacent to the breeze with some areas ending up dry and bright if rather cold. GFS then exits Christmas with another active storm system sending strong winds and gales across the UK which only relaxes slowly as we move towards the end of the year. By New Years Eve another Low is formed close to Western Britain with more wind and rain for many areas which quickly clears NE in time for New Years day which looks much better and quieter across most areas. Changes then towards the end of the run revolve around rising pressure from the Southeast sending and weakening rain bearing systems towards Northern and Western areas while England and Wales become much quieter and drier if somewhat colder. UKMO tonight shows post Christmas opening with another very powerful storm system to the North of the UK with strong to gale force WSW winds and heavy rain having cleared East to be replaced by showers with once more some wintry showers on hills and in the North. GEM tonight shows unsettled and innitially stormy conditions soon after Christmas with storm force winds, heavy rain then squally and wintry showers with hail and thunder all thrown in at times. Winds do die sown towards the end of the year but the weather looks likely to remain cold and unsettled as we hit the New Year period with another Low pressure down to the SW and with pressure over Europe less in a hurry to rise. NAVGEM shows very stormy weather a week from now with gale SW or West winds showers and longer spells of rain and showers, wintry on hills. ECM tonight shows unsettled and sometimes stormy weather continuing right up to the New Year with nowhere immune from some very unpleasant conditions at times. Heavy rain will be all too frequent with some colder brighter weather with showers, wintry on hills in between the rain bands in temperatures close to or a little above average at times in the South later. The GFS Ensembles show another disappointing set with average uppers throughout and spells of heavy rain all too frequent with sunshine and showers in between with wintry showers over the hills. The Jet Stream shows the flow slipping South of the UK as we approach and over Christmas itself before it moves back North over and occasionally just to the NW of the British Isles towards the end of the run. In Summary there is still an awful lot of newsworthy weather to get through before any of the models show anything of significant improvement over the coming period and even then there is still plenty of scope for further wind and rain to take us into the New Year. Temperatures in themselves will be close to average overall though this will be sufficiently cold enough for some snow over hills at times. The wind will also be a major feature with another worrying storm likely just after Christmas before things do look like moderating somewhat in terms of wind strength while rainfall build up could continue to be a problem throughout the period. Unfortunately for those looking for something rather traditionally colder and wintry will have to continue to wait as there still remains little signs of any major change to the overall pattern anytime soon while the Jet stream profile remains as it is.

Good morning folks. Today is the shortest day and from today o the hours of daylight become slowly longer. So with that thought in mind here is my look at the NWP output based on the midnight outputs for today Saturday December 21st 2013. All models continue to show very volatile conditions across the UK up to and over the Christmas period. A showers WSW flow shown today will be exacipated by an active squally trough sweeping East tonight following the final clearance of rain from the SE earlier in the day. Once passed temperatures will fall markedly as a colder westerly flow is shown to take hold with scattered showers and sunny spells tomorrow with most of the showers near Western coasts with some Eastern parts becoming dry. On Monday another powerful storm system close to the NW is shown to spread severe gales and loads of rain across the UK from the SW and it will become mild again especially in the South. By Christmas Eve this weather is shown to be replaced by colder and more showery conditions in the North and West filtering down into the SE later. Christmas Day then looks to be a colder, less windy and potentially showery day with some sheltered areas away from prevailing West winds perhaps seeing a dry day while areas in the West see showers, wintry on hills. Boxing Day looks like starting dry and cold for many away from Western areas with a frost and light winds for a time. Later in the day things go quickly downhill as the next Atlantic storm system approaches the UK from the West. GFS then shows the run up to the New Year as remaining very unsettled and potentially stormy as further Low pressure brings rain and showers in off the Atlantic repeated over the New Year before things finally look like becoming less stormy and quieter especially across the South as the Jet stream moves North and takes the worst of the depression further North to affect the north far worse than the South by the end of the run. UKMO closes it's run on the 27th with a new deep Low pressure out to the NW having spread mild and strong SW winds back across the UK with gales and heavy rain likely for all at times with severe gales in places. GEM today also shows a continuing very unsettled period lasting up to and including the New Year as successive depressions deliver wind and rain followed by showers for all. It too though shows pressure rising over Europe which may steer some of the heavy rain away from the South and more towards the NW as we enter 2014. NAVGEM closes it's run with a powerful storm system centred between Scotland and Iceland next weekend with strong to gale WSW winds and rain followed by squally showers affecting all parts next weekend with wintry showers again over the hills. ECM shows the post Christmas storm much further South this morning and less deep crossing the Centre of the UK. Nevertheless it would provide Southern regions with a potent gale and spell of heavy rain while the North sees colder and more showery weather before all areas remain changeable thereafter with the New Year period looking every bit as unsettled as a new deepening Low rattles into the UK from the Atlantic on New Years Eve. The GFS Ensembles remain an unsettled bunch maintaining total Atlantic domination throughout on sometimes strong Westerly winds. As a result little if any sign of significantly cold or indeed mild weather shown with plenty of rainfall over the period from most members. The Jet Stream shows the flow across the Atlantic and on collision force with the Uk throughout the next week. It troughs South of the UK over Christmas briefly before the next storm system pulls it North again post Christmas. In the neverland it does show signs still of wanting to ridge North around an Atlantic High but it looks like it could be flattened quite quickly again as pressure is put on it by further cyclonicity exiting the States. In Summary there is absolutely no sign of any change in the weather pattern over the next 10 days with further gales and heavy rain at times for all. Hopefully any damaging weather looks restricted to Monday and Christmas Eve now with a quieter but still unsettled period over Christmas itself especially across the South. there is the chance of a white christmas for a few as cold uppers could bring some of the colder air to the surface in heavy showers, most likely in the West and North. As we exit Christmas and into the New Year there is little difference with yet another storm system up to the North dictating the wet pattern for the period. The only nugget of hope for drier weather could come from a rise of pressure to the SW, South or SE as we move into the New Year shunting the deepest part of depressions further NW and restricting the severity of wind and rain to these areas. However, I appreciate this is not what cold weather fans want to here as if it verified it would keep cold weather well away from the UK well out into January at least.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's attempt to look between the Weather models 12 noon outputs for today Friday December 20th 2013. All models show another deep depression to the NW of the UK with a cold front slipping ESE across Southern and Eastern areas overnight leaving behind a cold and showery SW flow over northern and western areas while a wave travels NE along the cold front over the SE tomorrow delaying it's clearance until evening. By Sunday all areas will be under a rather colder and showery Westerly flow with some wintry showers over the hills and maintained very windy weather. On Monday the weather becomes particularly stormy everywhere as yet another unusually intense depression moves in close to NW Scotland. A series of troughs cross all areas through the day with heavy and persistent rain for much of the day clearing slowly SE later with severe gale or storm force winds giving rise to potential damage in places. GFS then shows Christmas Eve as a windy and very showery day with gales and frequent showers for all with more persistent rain left over from Monday only clearing the SE slowly. Some of the showers will again be heavy and wintry in places , most frequent in the West. On Christmas Day and Boxing Day it looks like being somewhat less windy but rather cold with further showers and longer spells of rain or sleet, especially in the South. Thereafter up to the New Year yet another storm system similar to Christmas Eve's version brings heavy rain and severe gales to all areas followed by sunshine and showers yet again. As we move towards and over the New Year High pressure ridges towards the UK from a position North of the Azores and brings much less wet but breezy weather with more benign conditions over the South while rain becomes restricted towards the North. UKMO tonight shows a wet and occasionally very windy Christmas especially on Christmas Eve. It will become rather cold with some snow showers over the hills at Christmas where a quieter period at the end of Christmas leads us into the approach of the next storm system on the 27th. GEM tonight keeps deeply unsettled weather throughout the three day Christmas period with strong to gale or even severe gale force winds driving spells of rain and showers across the UK repeatedly over and beyond Christmas , falling as snow at times over the hills. NAVGEM tonight also replicates GFS and UKMO's trend of seeing the back of one spell of stormy weather as we exit Christmas and enters into another as a new storm system piles in from the North Atlantic post Christmas with renewed gales and heavy rain. ECM keeps the unsettled and sometimes stormy weather going well beyond Christmas and towards the New Year with plenty of rainfall and showery interludes with cold enough conditions at times for some snowfall over the hills especially over the Christmas season itself. The GFS Ensembles maintain no signals for any really cold weather anytime soon with the general trend for the very wet first week slowly giving way to less wet conditions for the South later in the run as temperatures maintain average uppers. The operational was a warm outlier at the end with it's warm uppers blowing in around an Atlantic high . The Jet Stream shows very little overall movement over the majority of the output time tonight though it does show some evidence of ridging North over the Atlantic around a displaced Azores High in the far reaches of the run. In Summary there is a lot of very unsettled, wet and stormy weather to come over the next few weeks. Temperatures will fluctuate between a little above average during the rain bands to just below in the showery spells when some snow could be witnessed, especially over the hills and over the Christmas period itself. There is very little evidence of a reliable indication of the way out of this pattern with virtually no chance of any major changes this side of the New Year. The only evidence of change hinted at tonight is that the Jet flow be pushed back more towards the North again as High pressure builds again over Europe or the Azores though at 10-14 days out this theme will have to be maintained and built upon in future runs to gain any credibility.

Never would describe the weather as boring in the UK. There is always something to talk about. I admit like frosty that a SE European high and the mundane events that goes with it is boring but it's all part of the weather as far as I'm concerned. I know many on here love snow and ice and crave all Winter for it but it's not a natural pattern for the UK and there will always be a greater emphasis on the milder Atlantic driven variety over Continental air masses in any Winter Season. With regard to the here and now the prospect of high winds and heavy rain is OK for me.

Good morning. Here is the report on the NWP output taken using the 12 midnight data on Friday December 20th 2013. All models show very unsettled conditions up to Christmas with a new Low and fronts crossing NW Britain today with severe gales and heavy rain developing and sinking it subsequently SE over Southern areas tonight where it becomes slow moving and mild again later. Tomorrow sees colder and showery conditions finally reach the SE late in the day with Sunday being a very windy and showery day for all with the heaviest ones in the West and with wintry ones on Northern hills. CHRISTMAS EVE looks likely to become very wet and potentially stormy as yet another storm system approaches NW Britain. Heavy rain and severe gales look likely for all before colder and clearer weather with squally showers in Westerly gales reach all but the SE by Christmas Eve night. CHRISTMAS DAY looks like very deep Low pressure will lie close to the North with a strong rather cold and showery Westerly flow delivering a lot of showers to Western and Northern coasts and hills with rather drier and brighter weather possible in the East with a little sunshine. BOXING DAY currently shows rather lighter Westerly winds but rather cold conditions across the UK. With pressure shown to be very low from all models troughs would bring showery outbreaks of rain and hill snow with the most likely places to receive these impossible to predict at this range but nowhere would likely be immune. GFS then leads us out of Christmas and into the New Year with further storm systems repeatedly rushing across the Atlantic and passing the NW of Scotland maintaining the pattern of strong winds and rain in relatively mild conditions with spells of showery weather when it will be rather colder with some wintry showers over the hills of the north at least. UKMO closes it's output with Boxing Day being an unsettled day with a trough crossing East giving enhanced showers, perhaps wintry on hills before drier and less showery weather moves in from the West late in the day. GEM shows a cocktail of Low pressure systems encompassing the UK in the period up towards the New Year with plenty of scope for gales and heavy rain on each day with some brighter and colder moments in between. NAVGEM ends the Christmas holiday period with an intense storm near SW England with severe gales and torrential rainfall possible in the South should it evolve with some snow possible on it's Northern flank while Northern areas remain rather chilly and showery. ECM closes Christmas with another storm system up to the NW pushing SW'ly gales and heavy rain across all areas when it will become briefly milder again with the sunshine and shower mix returning again for a time as we approach New Years Eve. However, the embryonic signs of a new storm system to arrive over the New Year period is high on it's 10 day chart. The GFS Ensembles show no shift whatsoever in maintaining the current pattern of Atlantic driven weather through the entire period with the mean temperatures for the run hugging the long term average throughout. Rainfall is again shown to be copious and troublesome at times with flooding issue a very likely proposition if this verifies. The Jet Stream powering this pattern remains locked in situ with a short fluctuation South of the UK over Christmas before powering back NE across the British Isles again towards the New Year. In Summary the pattern remains locked with a powerful Jet stream continuing to feed active storm systems close to NW Britain each giving their own bouts of gales and heavy rain in repeated doses. There will be some polar maritime incursions of air when showers could be heavy and wintry almost anywhere before milder weather returns on the next approaching storm. There looks unlikely to be any major pattern shift now this side of the New Year with the Jet Stream in 10 days time showing little significant signs of weakening or changing it's orientation. the net result of this sustained period will be the flooding that is likely to develop with time and this takes the headline away somewhat from the earlier risks of storm force winds over Christmas which thankfully looks to have receded somewhat on most recent model runs.

Good morning. Here is the report on the NWP output for today's midnight outputs for today Thursday December 19th 2013. All models show the run up to Christmas as unsettled and potentially quite stormy at times as deep depressions continue to run East over or just to the North of the UK. Spells of heavy rain will be commonplace especially later tomorrow and Saturday in the South. Christmas Eve also looks like it could be very wet and windy too. All other times will see a mix of sunshine and showers with wintry showers over the hills at times as air turns briefly colder under these events. GFS shows Christmas Eve as a very unsettled day with deep Low pressure straddling the UK with each centre providing the risk of prolonged and heavy rain and it looks like it would be cold enough for snow on Northern hills. Christmas Day and boxing Day remain very similar with unstable and sometimes strong Westerly winds providing plenty of opportunity for heavy rain and wintry showers. This weather type continues up to and over the New Year with temperatures near to or a little below average. UKMO shows an intense depression just to the North of Scotland on Christmas Eve with strong Westerly winds and rain clearing to brighter or clearer spells and wintry showers with some snow on Northern hills. GEM maintains deep Low pressure over the UK throughout the Christmas week and in the days thereafter with heavy rain and strong winds never far away and with temperatures borderline for snow on hills at times. NAVGEM looks a lot like UKMO for Christmas Eve with the following two days of Christmas following suit with deep Low pressure over or close to the UK maintaining strong winds and heavy rain for many with some wintry type showers in between. ECM shows very unsettled weather over Christmas with rain at times and snow on the hills though it has removed the damaging winds scenario over Christmas on previous output. Nevertheless there is still plenty of wind and rain shown to wash down the Christmas festivities. The GFS Ensembles maintain a very average setup temperature wise made up of an oscillating sine wave pattern by all members with fast changing air types bringing rain areas across from the West followed by showers, wintry on hills. Christmas itself continues to be modelled as a very wet period especially in the South. The Jet Stream continues to be programmed to be crossing the UK strongly from the West for the next week, slipping South of the UK at times over Christmas. It then resets slightly further North across the UK in the run up to the New Year, still very strong. In Summary there is nothing new to report this morning with all models continuing to predict very volatile conditions with spells of rain and gales alternating with brighter and more showery conditions with some snow on the hills. The risk of severe gales over Christmas remains though the operational runs have backed off a little from this today. For those hoping for a pattern change as we look towards the New Year may find that they may have to wait rather longer from this morning's extended model outputs.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from NWP for today Wednesday December 18th 2013. All models show an active cold front attached to a very deep depression to the NW of Britain crossing quickly East over the UK this evening. Following behind will be a colder and still windy period of weather with a mix of clear or sunny intervals and heavy and frequent showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow the latter most likely but not exclusively over the hills. Then after a bright start to Friday a new area of heavy rain will sweep NE across the UK with renewed severe gales in the NW. Showery air will return to the North of the UK later with a slower clearance for Southern areas as a new wave runs along the cold front giving rise to another very wet spell for the South on Saturday. Sunday will then be a colder day for all with sunshine and showers, wintry on hills. GFS then shows the whole of the Christmas Week as wet, windy and occasionally stormy with severe gale or even storm force winds at times giving rise to flooding and wind damage issues almost anywhere over the period. After Christmas improvements are slow with plenty more fast changing conditions alternating between wet and windy weather to sunshine and showers, wintry at times. Overall things would turn somewhat colder, especially in the interludes between the rain areas. UKMO shows Christmas Eve as a rather cold and windy day with gale or severe gales across the North and West in particular with frequent showers giving hail, thunder, sleet and snow in places. GEM shows very unsettled with very deep Low pressure encircling the UK with some very potent small centres delivering very heavy rain and strong winds for all at times. It will become more generally less mild with some snow at times over the hills. NAVGEM tonight shows a very wet Christmas too with low pressure spiraling across the Atlantic and the UK with heavy rain and severe gales with sleet or snow showers at times over the hills. ECM tonight shows plenty of wind and rain over the Christmas week with severe gales at times and plenty of rain with wintry showers over the hills at times, especially across the North. The GFS Ensembles show a sine wave pattern indicative of a very mobile and Atlantic based weather pattern. There will be plenty of rain with local flooding issues if some of the charts verify and some colder interludes too when some sleet or snow showers could fall over the hills. The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing more or less unabated across the Atlantic and across the British Isles for the reliable future. In Summary there seems no real letup now in the very unsettled and potentially stormy spell of weather which will take us through the Christmas period and up to the New Year. Although never technically very cold at any point the volatile nature of the weather will result in some unexpected weather events to show up, be it snowfall or thunder, lightning hail and even mini tornadoes. Wind damage will be feasible at times ad most importantly with continual heavy rain events occurring there will be an increasing risk of flooding as rainfall totals rack up quickly over the next week or so.