Gibby

OK Your wish is my command. SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16TH 2013 Through the evening and night skies will remain well broken with clear spells and patchy cloud producing a few showers here and there, especially after midnight where the odd one could be heavy with lightning possible. It will stay breezy tonight with Westerly winds not allowing temperatures to be no lower than 9-10C. Tomorrow will be brighter day across the area with just a few scattered showers, especially at first in North and NE Somerset. There will be some good sunny intervals and it will feel relatively mild in a lighter WNW wind backing SW or South again by evening as cloud increases again from the SW. Maximum Temperatures through the day will be near 17C in the afternoon, well above average for mid October. Friday will become cloudy, wet and windy but mild as rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day. Some of the rain will be heavy and persistent with a strong Southerly wind for a time. Things may become a little drier and clearer towards the end of the day. On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well. Monday will be drier and brighter than the weekend with just a few showers and longer sunny spells and lighter winds. It will remain very mild for the time of year. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013

5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 16TH 2013 Today will see a stiff SE wind developing with cloudy skies and spells of rain, mostly quite light but a few moderate bursts as well. Milder conditions will affect the area through the day. Later on the rain will clear NE and winds will veer SW to brighter but still windy weather through the afternoon with just the chance of a shower. Temperatures will rise to 16C this afternoon in the brighter weather. Through the evening and night skies will remain well broken with clear spells and patchy cloud producing a few showers here and there. It will stay breezy tonight with temperatures no lower than 9-10C. On Thursday it will be brighter day across the area with just a few scattered showers. It will feel relatively mild in a lighter WNW wind backing SW or South again by evening as cloud increases again from the SW. Friday will become cloudy, wet and windy but mild as rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day. On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers or longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well. Compiled By Martin Gibbs Transcript taken from:-http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Hi everyone. Here is today's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 20th 2013.All models show the recent warmth as a thing of the past now as the weather deteriorates over the coming 24-36 hours in response to Low pressure making it's way in from off the Atlantic over the weekend with wind and rain for all. In the next 24 hours we have to get through a messy transition into cooler conditions with scattered outbreaks of thundery rain but unfortunately for storm buffs no particularly active thundery breakdown. In fact fresher air arrives by tomorrow with a brief bright and dry lull in the weather for many tomorrow.GFS then gradually pushes the depression away from the UK early next week with the rest of the run basically setting up a SW to NE divide as Southern and Western parts are influenced by a large High to the SW while Northern and Eastern areas remain closest to disturbances running around the top of the High and down over the North sea or NW Europe. Here there is the chance of occasional showers and through FI this might extend to other areas briefly before the divisions reset at the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles continue to show a cool phase under the deep depression at the weekend before a recovery to average values look likely thereon with precipitation fairly minimal through the run. There is little trend for any particular type of weather shown this morning so a period of benign and average conditions look likely.The Jet Stream today remains blowing across the Atlantic and the British isles from now well into next week. there are tentative signs of a weaker flow with time and a tendency for it to lift to a higher latitude at least over the Atlantic although it always seems to favour slipping back South again at times.UKMO today shows a NW flow still blowing down over the UK next Wednesday following the exit NE of the weekend depression on Monday. It would be a case of West is best from this set up as a ridge is knocking on the door there. In the East there could still be enough instability to give rise to a few showers at times in a rather cool feel while the West sees nearer average temperatures.GEM also takes the Low away NE early in the week with a slow but positive build of pressure bringing dry and bright conditions to many for a time in the middle of the week as the ridge flattens but stays reasonably close to the South. By the end of the week the pressure begins to fall again with a weak frontal system making it's way SE over Britain towards next weekend with some light rain for many for a time.NAVGEM today shows a reasonable spell of weather next week as the High to the SW takes control of the UK weather with a ridge keeping things largely dry and bright, more especially in the South where the best of the bright and warm conditions will be. More cloud does encroach over the UK at the end of the run as pressure gently falls.ECM today shows a general West to East split or a SW to NE split in the conditions through next week. The SW half of the UK will become dry soon after the start of the week with a spell of benign and dry conditions with spells of sunshine in average temperatures. The NE half of the Nation too will enjoy some reasonable weather but with a NW flow some scattered showers at times may occur and it will feel a little on the cool side at times.In Summary the weather next week looks relatively benign and non-eventful once we rid our air space of the unseasonal weekend Low. Most areas look likely to have dry or largely dry conditions under close influence of a ridge associated with High pressure to the SW. The ridge will be eroded at times by weak troughs from the NW but in general the ridge is shown to hold it's own and if synoptics remain as they are next weekend I'm sure the eventers and organisers of events, especially Glastonbury local to here will be more than happy with the current output.

Hi folks. Here is the report of the 12 midday output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Wednesday June 19th 2013All models remain supportive of a change to cooler and fresher conditions tomorrow and on through the rest of the week and weekend as a Low pressure area moves over the UK from the West over the weekend. After today's warmth temperatures will steadily fall away over the coming 24 hours as Atlantic winds bring cloud and rain in from the West lasting till the end of the weekend. It will be preceded by a spell of potentially thundery weather later tonight and tomorrow.GFS then shows next week as an improving pattern as High pressure builds steadily in from the Atlantic. Conditions would become fine and dry for many though Northern and Eastern parts could be at risk of more cloud and scattered showers at times as a NW flow remains present on the NE periphery of the High. FI tonight is set fair as High pressure holds firm out to the SW and West steering any cloud and occasional rain to far Northern and NE parts of the UK at times with reasonably bright and warm conditions more likely elsewhere.The GFS Ensembles show things steadily cooling off through the next 3-4 days before a recovery to more average conditions is shown. There is quite a spread in the group towards the end of the run with only patchy rain shown in the SE and nothing too significant elsewhere either.The GFS Jet Stream forecast shows the flow being maintained across the Atlantic and the British Isles for the foreseeable future albeit rather lightly at times.UKMO shows High pressure building in over the West of the UK with a light Northerly flow down the Eastern side of Britain on Tuesday with fine and dry weather in the West and a lot of dry weather in the East too but with a cool flow delivering the odd shower.GEM tonight shows High pressure building in too with a West/East split developing next week with fine and dry conditions for many, especially in the West whereas the East could be cloudier and cooler with a few showers.NAVGEM is bordering on the same theme but brings the High pressure in less significantly than the rest of the models with a slack NW flow for all through the week. A lot of dry weather would be likely with this pattern but a few showers could drift down over the North and East at times.ECM tonight is the spoiler of the party as it fails to ridge the High pressure in from the SW as much due to the slower departure of the weekend low pressure. The net result is that the ridge is quickly flattened allowing renewed Low pressure into the UK from off the Atlantic. The weather would improve steadily after a showery start to the week with several days of fair conditions before cloud and rain return from the NW in association with a UK depression to end the run.In Summary improvements look more or less guaranteed early next week as a strong ridge of High pressure moves in from the SW over the British isles towards midweek. ECM is less supportive of this pattern with unsettled weather quickly returning later in the week while the rest of the models would see a spell of weather when West would be the best, seeing the best of the warmer and dry conditions while the East, though largely dry too sees more cloud and the chance of a shower. Overall leaving ECM aside the models look like maintaining our 'OK' type summer next week with nothing spectacular shown in the way of hot weather or indeed cool weather with rainfall far less of a feature than lately. It would of been nice to of had ECM on board but we will have to wait and see what the midnight runs show.

I take your point entirely and what you say is right but in my 50 years of studying weather the most sustained period of Nationwide Summer weather occurs when there is a blocking High up to the NE with a dry and very warm Continental feed of air from SE Europe over the UK. This has been known to hold off the Atlantic for days and sometimes weeks especially if the Azores High is present too with only limited influence from thunder from the South, an extreme example was Summer 1976. As it is no model that I have seen supports this synoptic setup so I remain to be convinced that improvements next week will be limited to 2-3 days and most likely for the South.

Hi everyone. Here is this morning's review of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday June 19th 2013.All models are in solid agreement of the removal of the warm and humid air over England and Wales over the next 36 hours as a thundery disturbance develops over the UK with fresh and cooler air following East across the UK in it's wake later tomorrow. Thereafter Westerly winds will usher in Low pressure and troughs across the UK later on Friday and through the weekend with spells of rain and showers in rather cool conditions out until Monday.GFS then takes the Low pressure out over the North Sea where it fills leaving the UK in a slack open ridge of High pressure with drier conditions and just the odd shower here and there with temperatures close to average. Late in the week and through the following weekend a new deep Atlantic Low gives a re-run of this weekend to come with windy and wet conditions for all with very limited bright spells in another session of cool weather as the Low trundles slowly East over the UK. The end section of the run shows the Low slow moving and drifted further North to maintain a basically cool and unsettled spell with rain or showers for all of the UK at times in Westerly winds.The GFS Ensembles show uppers over Southern Britain falling some 10C over the coming 5 days to a position below average before a slow recovery to more average levels is then sustained through to the end of the run. The operational was a cool outlier in it's latter stages but there seems little support or trend towards anything better than average with rain at times over the forecast period this morning.The Jet Stream over the next week or so remains on a collision course with the UK or Northern France before weakening somewhat as we move deeper into next week.UKMO today shows a strong ridge of high pressure building in from the West early next week replacing the cool and unsettled weekend with better drier and sunnier conditions with temperatures recovering out of the rather cool values of previously.GEM too brings High pressure in towards Western Britain through next week with dry and bright weather developing with spells of sunshine. Most places would stay dry beyond Tuesday but a cool breeze would affect the East and SE of England blowing down from the North.NAVGEM builds High pressure in from the west but more slowly maintaining a cool Northerly feed down over the UK perhaps with scattered showers at times still in the East.ECM finally brings High pressure into the UK too next week giving several days towards the middle and end of the week of fine and dry weather with broken cloud and sunshine though never notably warm. The pattern then flattens towards the weekend with unsettled weather feeding down from the North again at the end of the run with rain developing for all at times.In Summary today the weather looks like becoming briefly more settled next week as High pressure situated over the Atlantic spawns a strong ridge which is shown by most models to move over Western areas at least early next week. Before that ridge arrives though we are staring down the barrel of a windy and cool weekend with rain and showers for all before this moves away NE over the first days of the new week. The ridge then moves in but if only we could get the ridge across to the East and feed Continental air over the UK I would be more optimistic for a sustained spell of settled weather. As it is the ridge looks like holding slightly too far West maintaining an Atlantic feed gently blowing down from the North, especially in the East which would hold temperatures down somewhat. Also without the High pressure ridge migrating to the East of the UK the door is once more left open to further Low pressure areas to drift around the top of the Atlantic High and down towards the UK and once more this is where ECM ends up today so in all honesty despite better conditions again for a time next week a pattern change it is not and with GFS endorsing this in a more extreme form this morning we still have some way to go before we can get a nationwide warm and sunny period that we can all share and not the 1-2 day regional spells we have seen so far this summer. Nevertheless, with such difficult synoptics some places may fair well while others not so, and as I keep enthusing things are a multitude better than at most times last summer.

Good evening. Here is the report from my prospective of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEm and ECM for tonight Tuesday June 18th 2013.All models are fairly agreed on the general weather pattern and course of events between now and the end of the coming weekend. A slack area of pressure lies over the UK at present with a thundery Low well to the South of the UK. An equally thundery trough lies to the SE and a wave on this could bring thundery rain into the SE by dawn tomorrow clearing soon after. Very warm and humid air has made it's way up into Southern Britain and with rather more sunshine tomorrow than today temperatures could reach 25-28C in parts of the SE making it the warmest day of the year so far. Things will change on Thursday as a more extensive area of thundery rain and humidity moves NE over England and Wales while at the same time fronts approach the West meaning the potential for very wet conditions on Thursday is high with cooler and fresher air swamping the UK by Friday. Through the rest of the day and weekend the weather becomes windy, cool and unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain with a few drier and brighter intervals.GFS shows Low pressure slipping away NE as we move into next week with slack pressure in rather cool uppers meaning a lot of dry weather would be expected but with the risk of scattered showers in near average temperatures. FI tonight is very disappointing as further troughs then Low pressure move into the UK from the West with rain or showers at times in continuing cool and sometimes windy conditions. There would still be some dry and bright weather in between the rain or showers more especially in the South later.The GFS Ensembles showthe warmth currently over the South soon becomes a thing of the past and it is pushed away towards Russia over the next few weeks with the UK stuck in yet another trough fed by Low pressure from the West delivering occasional rain or showers in disppointing temperatures for late June.The GFS Jet Stream pattern in the reliable timeframe continues to blow across the Atlantic to the UK and on over Europe maintaining the feed of Low pressure tracking across the North of the UK.UKMO tonight shows Low pressure retreating to the NE of Britain early in the weekand being replaced by a new one approaching to the NW with a weak ridge set to cross the UK later on Monday separating periods of unsettled and changeable weather with rain at times with drier and brighter periods too with temperatures generally unexciting for this time of year.GEM tonight is the one of the best of the bunch tonight. The model follows the others with regard to the weekend Low moving it across the UK at out to the NE late in the weekend and start to next week. It then builds pressure strongly from the SW with dry weather likely for most with any cloud and a little rain restricted to Northernmost parts. Temperatures would still be slow to rise very much but in the sun and periods of light winds it should feel pleasant enough should it evolve.NAVGEM is also a little better but falls short of a break in the general pattern as following a ridge of High pressure early next week when a dry and bright spell seems likely Low pressure and troughs are looking ominous just to the west of the UK at the end of the run a return to unsettled conditions soon after.ECM completes the set in verifying a cool, unsettled and windy weekend with rain or showers. As we move through next week pressure rises but temperatures don't with maintained cool uppers. With slack pressure winds would be light and there would be some dry weather to be enjoyed though cloud amounts could be quite large for many with the chance of scattered showers still very possible. Later in the week the Azores High does make progress into the UK with a spell of fine and bright weather with pressure in excess of 1025mbs ensuring dry and pleasantly warm conditions to end the run.In Summary tonight it was beginning to look a little disappointing from the models, particularly after the GFS run. GEM showed hope and then came along ECM which offers continued support for a strong rise of pressure from the SW later next week. Before we get there we have some potentially inclement days to get through and although if and when the better weather gets here it doesn't look like a heatwave is likely with a continuing NW influence to the wind but at least the synoptics as shown will maintain the far better conditions that we all endured through Summer 2012.

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday June 18th 2013.All models show a pool of hot air over the NW of Europe with a thundery Low on it's Western periphery over France. For the most part this stays across the channel though the far SE may see very warm conditions for a time tomorrow while the rest of England see pleasantly warm if humid weather. The weather should stay largely fine in slack pressure gradients today and tomorrow spare the odd burst of thundery rain in the SE. By Thursday a thundery low makes a more definite NE track across the South with a more pronounced spell of thundery rain followed by cooler and fresher conditions from the West later in the day. Friday then looks cooler and fresher everywhere with Westerly winds bringing cloud and rain in later to lead the UK into a cool and breezy weekend with rain or showers as Atlantic Low pressure parks itself over the UK.GFS then shows this Low moving slowly NE early next week and filling up allowing slack but High pressure conditions to take effect over Britain. So after showers early in the week, chiefly in the North drier weather will develop with less wind and sunny spells and it could feel pleasantly warm under these. Late in the week and following weekend the weather is shown to slide downhill again as Atlantic westerlies bring a series of troughs East in the brisk flow with rain at times for a brief while before pressure builds again at the end of the run with dry and bright weather taking hold.The GFS Ensembles show that the high uppers over the South currently last for another day or so before they fall below average briefly then recover to average levels for the rest of the period. Rainfall is expected to fall to sporadic amounts after the thundery rain at the end of the warm period and is indicative of quite benign conditions for most beyond this coming weekend.The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic and across the British Isles with the cut off feature to the South dissolving in 48 hours or so. Later in the period the flow weakens and although GFS doesn't really support any significant movement in the flow the orientation does turn slightly more SW to NE later which could allow High pressure to edge closer to Southern Britain in the distant future.UKMO today shows the weekend as unsettled and cool while Monday sees the legacy of this still affecting most as Low pressure lies over NE Britain with a cool and showery flow in it's wake as it slowly tracks NE.GEM today shows little respite from the cooler and unsettled conditions once they arrive before the weekend with the weekend depression moving slowly away early next week only to be replaced by a new one moving across the UK late in the run.NAVGEM today too shows little better prospects maintaining the weekend's Low in the proximity of the UK well into next week, centred near the far North at the end of the run with a breezy, cool and showery Westerly flow over Britain.ECM finally shows the low pressure moving away from Britain on Monday leaving a period of slack and rather cloudy Westerly winds which slowly back SW with High pressure ridging in close to the South with dry and brighter conditions developing here with warmer temperatures too. The North though does look like staying breezy and changeable next week and by the close of the run pressure is slowly falling again over the North and West of Britain.In Summary today the weather remains in a changeable state. It is far from a washout though and for many the weather will end up not having been too bad through the period. However, the weekend looks generally cool and at times breezy and wet while next week GFS and ECM offer something rather better at least for the South as the Jet realigns slightly and allows higher pressure close to the South. However, these changes are tentative and at a lengthy range currently so we will have to see how such changes develop over the coming days before we can definitively say that a pattern change is likely. Meanwhile let's enjoy the warmth of the coming 48 hours as it may be a while before we see uppers as high as currently over the South, anywhere in the UK.

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs issued by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday June 17th 2013.All models show a complex pressure pattern through this week before things simplify at the weekend. In essence the UK is under a fairly slack airflow pattern with a thundery Low pressure system to the South and a weak ridge over Scotland. Through the week a wedge of very warm and humid air moves up across South and SE England. Temperatures will be high and would be even higher were there more sunshine expected, instead we have to look out for showers and thunderstorms breaking out on occasion over Southern areas over the coming three days. Late in the week the weather turns cooler and fresher from the West as the thundery Low moves away East and NE. Following on behind will be an increasing Westerly wind with cloud and rain spreading East and South across the UK before the weekend. With Low pressure close to or over the UK at the weekend the weather will be showery with fresh and cool breezes and some more prolonged spells of rain at times too. In among all this will be some short drier and brighter interludes.GFS shows the Low filling and moving slowly NE early next week with showers gradually becoming more scattered with longer drier and brighter spells likely, especially in the South. FI shows a slack pattern tonight with High pressure quite close to the West of the UK allowing a lot of dry and bright weather in FI if not excitingly warm. Some rain will occur at times though mostly towards the SW for a time and SE later as High pressure builds strongly NE to the NW of Britain with a NE flow with the chance of enough instability in the flow to give sufficient risk of a few showers in the SE.The GFS Ensembles show another set of uninspiring uppers once the current warm phase ends. A rather cool spell then looks likely before things warm up a llittle at the end of the run. Through the very warm and humid weather the chance of storms shows rainfall (while present) would be very variable before a traditional spread of occasional rain is shown under Atlantic winds from the cooler phase on.The Jet Stream shows the flow West to East across the Atlantic currently troughed to the West of the UK with the returning flow drifting North over Britain. As the thundery trough eases away later in the week the flow reverts to a point West to East across Northern France later in the weekend and start of the new week.UKMO tonight looks distinctly unsettled with a slow moving Low pressure over Southern Scotland with cyclonic winds blowing across the UK with showers or longer spells of rain mixed with some drier and brighter spells with temperatures near or a little below average.GEM tonight shows the Low pressure over the UK at the weekend migrating away NE to Scandinavia with showers continuing for many into the new week. Towards midweek with winds then back to Westerly troughs moving across the UK and would maintain the changeable weather type with uninspiring temperatures.NAVGEM too shows the Low pressure as a slow moving feature over the UK at the weekend with a reluctance to move it away with any great speed thereafter. Further showers would therefore continue for many through the weekend and start to the new week.ECM finally shows the Low tracking off towards Scandinavia at the end of the weekend with a Westerly flow carrying a new trough East over the UK with some more rain for a time early in the week. Pressure is rising slowly to the SW of the UK but doesn't make too much impact on the weather as a whole though probably restricting the worst rainfall towards the North while the South becomes rather cloudy but would probably see just light rain or drizzle in a stiff West breeze.In Summary the weather remains as changeable and often unsettled as ever on tonight's output with good agreement on the thundery and warm period this week giving way to what could be a very unsettled weekend for some with rain and showers scattered around almost everywhere. The longer term models of GFS, GEM and ECM show nothing of significantly better conditions at the 10 day range though GFS does look like settling things down later in a NE flow over the UK with fine and dry conditions for many at the end. The better charts shown are at the end of the run from both GFS and to a degree ECM too need to be extended into following runs, other models as well as the ensembles before I will reflect them as a chance of a pattern change.

I think the Met have copied my report this morning. UK Outlook for Saturday 22 Jun 2013 to Monday 1 Jul 2013: Through Saturday, a band of rain across the west will spread east, clearing the far south east overnight. Heavy rain is possible at first but should turn lighter through the day. Brighter and showery weather following the rainband in the north and west on Saturday will spread to all areas on Sunday. It will turn windier through the weekend, particularly in the north and west, with temperatures close to or just below average. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain unsettled with showers or longer spells of rain but also some drier and clearer interludes. The north and west is likely to see the strongest winds and most frequent rain whilst the south and east enjoys the best of the drier and brighter spells. Temperatures remaining near or just below normal. UK Outlook for Monday 1 Jul 2013 to Monday 15 Jul 2013: Indications are that the weather is likely to stay rather changeable into the first part of July, with westerly winds allowing weather systems to push in from the Atlantic, bringing spells of rain at times. Conditions will generally be more unsettled towards the northwest of the UK, with the best of the drier and brighter periods in the south and east. Temperatures are likely to be a little below average for the time of year, especially in western parts, whereas rainfall amounts look to be close to average in most places. Issued at: 0400 on Mon 17 Jun 2013

It's because they like me expect a lot of cloud due to such high humidities. I would say that 24-27C would be the range more typical but if the sun does break through for any length of time then yes 28-30C is possible.

Good morning everyone. Sorry about no report last night on this forum but had to commit to my Son and his families presence in view it was Father's Day. However, here is today's midnight report from the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday June 17th 2013.All models show Low pressure to the South of the UK with an area of slack winds and a ridge of High pressure over Northern Britain. The low to the South loosens it's grip temporarily in the next 24 hours before reinvigorating into a thundery feature, moving NE close to SE Britain by Thursday and away into the North Sea by Friday. Weatherwise Northern and Central areas will see a lot of dry weather this week with sunny spells and light winds with average temperatures. Further South the conditions will be more complex with some dry weather here too but with very warm and moist air aloft scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are possible between now and Thursday, perhaps becoming more widespread for a time shortly after midweek. By Friday with the thundery Low out over the North Sea cooler and fresher conditions will spread across all areas perhaps with a dry and bright spell for many in light NW winds.GFS then shows an unsettled weekend with Low pressure feeding down over the UK with a spell of rain followed by showers with some sunny spells in between. Through FI the weather pattern remains very complex with no pressure systems having overall control of the UK weather. Instead a spell of very light winds will ensue. With cool uppers over the UK and slack pressure together with strong June sunshine the ingredients are right for large showers to develop inland during the daytime's which would likely be slow moving. Late in the run winds are shown to settle more Westerly with some dry and bright weather likely in the South at the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles remain as before with this weeks warm phase being replaced by cooler Atlantic winds and subsequent lower uppers bringing a mix of sunshine with rain at times for most with no definitive sign of any settled warm spell as yet.The Jet Stream shows the Easterly moving flow continuing across Britain throughout with a weak cut-off portion circulating to the South of the UK for several days in association with the thundery disturbance over the Continent.UKMO today shows a changeable weekend with rain at times, chiefly in the North while the South and SE in particular might not see much rain.GEM today shows the same as GFS with Low pressure sliding down from the NW over the UK and on into the North Sea through the weekend and start to the new week with a cool and showery regime continuing for some time before the flow backs Westerly with a new trough approaching Western Britain by Day 10.NAVGEM looks very unsettled this morning carrying the thundery rain influence further North than it's counterpart models making for a showery week which leads on to showery Westerly winds next weekend under fresher and cooler Atlantic conditions as a Low complex remains centred over Northern Britain.ECM finally also shows more extent of the thundery system midweek which consequently leads to less chance of a window of fine weather on Friday leading the UK straight into cooler and unsettled conditions with showers or rain at times as we move through the weekend and start to next week which continues to show very changeable conditions for all even at the termination of the run.In Summary today it's more of the same with Low pressure maintaining it's stranglehold on the UK weather with meaningful High pressure held far away from our shores. So in weather terms it means that following the warm, humid and potentially thundery period this week in the South the North will see the only guaranteed dry weather over the coming days and even here isolated showers could occur. Once we reach the exit point of the humid weather at the end of the week the Atlantic winds come back with a vengeance giving rise to another period of rain followed by cool showers with short dry interludes in between when it may feel warm in the sunshine. Overall though the output remains disappointing with little likelihood of any sustained and lengthy dry and warm weather for anywhere while this current synoptic pattern remains in place due to a Jet Stream that remains too far South over the UK instead of Iceland.

Yes a different direction to the rain area than was expected. Leading edge currently near Hereford SE to Reading and Eastbourne and moving steadily NE. A lot more areas of the South are going to see rain today than previously thought. It's that steady unrelenting rain which holds temperatures down and gives a cold and miserable complexion both out and indoors.

Hi everyone. Here is the Sunday morning look at the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday June 16th 2013 and what they may mean for us down on the surface over the coming couple of weeks.All models seem to be coming closer to some sort of agreement on the weather over the UK in the coming days. It looks like Southernmost areas will be cloudier than elsewhere and rather cool today with occasional rain in places. The North will be brighter and drier with just scattered showers. This pattern looks like seeing us through tomorrow too before all areas become drier and a little warmer especially in the SE midweek. Later in the week the Low to the South moves steadily NE with outbreaks of thundery rain for some parts of England and Wales by Thursday, especially towards the SE. Late in the week the Low moves away to the NE and fresher air makes it's way across all areas with some sunny intervals in places.GFS then shows Low pressure moving SE over the UK at the weekend with an unsettled and cool period for most with rain and showers for all at times. Through FI today the UK is covered by a large cool pool of unstable air and from this one can only deduce there would be heavy showers and outbreaks of rain scattered about in all areas with temperatures continuing to be held down to near average levels for all. It would though feel reasonably warm in the bright spells between the showers though.The GFS Ensembles are very supportive of a sharp rise in uppers over the coming days before they fall back later in the week. It is though the only light in a very long and dark tunnel from the ensembles this morning as once passed there is unanimous support for average temperatures and rain at times for all areas. The high uppers in the middle of the week will be mostly felt under humid and rather cloudy conditions with the prospect of thundery rain diluting the impact of these at the surface.The Jet Stream continues to meander North and South in an undulating fashion close to the UK over the coming week. In a week's time it is sliding slowly SE to the West of the UK over the Bay of Biscay.UKMO this morning shows the risk of thundery rain soon after midweek in the SE with the extent NW of this unclear. A ridge then moves in behind the clearance of this rain to end the week with a dry and bright period for all before the weekend looks like becoming unsettled again from the NW as low pressure slips SE towards Scotland.GEM shows a chance of thundery rain over a larger part of Southern Britain in a very humid midweek period down here while following the clearance on Thursday and Friday cooler fresher Atlantic air floods back over all areas with rain or showers in association with Low pressure over the North, not unlike GFS this morning.NAVGEM continues to programme Low pressure close to the SE for quite a while later this week with the threat of thundery rain always present with very warm air flirting with the SE for a time. Eventually though this pattern is shown to give way to a return of Atlantic West and North-Westerlies with Low pressure close by returning the risk of rain and showers for many.ECM today shows a more coherent area of thundery Low pressure across South and SE Britain soon after midweek with some very humid and warm air in tow. Towards the end of the week this moves away NE with cooler and fresher conditions returning with showers or outbreaks of rain at times in cool and fresh conditions. Late in the run there is a glimmer of hope with the Azores ridge desperately trying to link with a Northern Scandinavian High at Day 10 to stem the flow down from the NW but it's interaction with Low pressure over Europe may deny it's SE movement over the following period outside of the runs term.In Summary it's another mish-mash of output this morning which promises very little UK wide settled conditions in the next 10-14 days. Instead we have to clutch at what straws there are and the first of these is through the middle of this week when a spell of warm and humid air affects parts of the South and East terminated by a thundery breakdown by Thursday. Thereafter we have to look right out to Day 10 of ECM which does offer some hope as the Azores high does look orientated better to settle things down further out providing it's associated ridge is allowed to drift SE into the UK in the subsequent days. Overall though it's more of the same with plenty of days with very average conditions with neither too wet or dry weather with some bright sunny breaks between the showers.

Hi folks. Here is the report taken from the noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday June 15th 2013.All models show today's showery Low moving away East with a new Low decelerating as it approaches the SW tomorrow with the fronts from it draped towards France. Through next week this Low shows little significant inroads into the UK through the first half of the week with most of the rainfall from it only affecting the extreme South and SW and maybe the SE towards midweek.GFS shows little influence at all from the feature to the South beyond Monday with an Atlantic front instead carrying some rain East across the North with winds returning to a Westerly point. The weather remains changeable from then until the end of the weekend with a NW flow continuing to blow over the UK with occasional rain as weak fronts meander Southeast or East in the flow. Some drier and brighter weather will occur at times too with average temperatures maintained though the SE may become rather warmer briefly towards midweek. Through FI tonight little changes synoptically with winds remaining stuck between SW and NW with occasional Low pressure areas slipping SE delivering periods of more unsettled weather outside of which there will be some pleasant dry and bright weather for a fair part of the time too. With warmer uppers developing over the Atlantic waters late in the run cloud amounts could be quite large restricting temperatures as the warmth travels over cool seas.The GFS Ensembles show nothing overly inspiring tonight but I notice a slow rising trend above average albeit in far FI. The warmth recently shown for early this coming week has been eroded to a 1-2 day affair now and only for the SE while rainfall remains a feature throughout the run albeit never a monsoon anywhere.The Jet Stream tonight shows the trough feature from tomorrow to Wednesday being overwhelmed by a surge of Atlantic energy re-establishing the Jet flow across the UK later in the week and weekend.UKMO tonight shows a fairly benign pattern midweek with any thundery rain leaving the SE fairly readily with a slack NW flow over the South with a lot of dry weather. Dry conditions further North though will gradually become replaced by more unsettled weather returning from the Atlantic which looks destined to travel further SE across the rest of Britain next weekend.GEM tonight keeps pressure relatively low to the South of Britain through the weekdays with the risk of some warm and humid air making it into the SE for a time with some thundery showers before cooler air further North and West moves down over all parts later bringing the UK back to square 1 with a slack NW flow bringing another area of Low pressure down from the NW with attendent showery rain although a fair amount of dry weather is likely before that occurs, especially in the South.NAVGEM also brings warm Continental air up into the extreme South and SE of England towards midweek with a swathe of thundery rain or showers crossing NE across these parts while the NW sees a quieter and drier spell for a time. Later in it's run the thundery rain is shown to move away NE opening the gates to the Atlantic again as winds back towards the West with a new Low pressure sinking down over the UK with showery rain for all at the end of the run.ECM shows a potentially thundery spell in the SE through the first half of the week as very warm and humid air flirts with the UK as slack thundery Low pressure meanders around France and the near Continent. Later in the week the weather reverts to form with the Atlantic bringing in it's next Low pressure area on a familiar track SE towards the NW to start next weekend with a spell of rain followed by showers the likely course of events with temperatures back down to much fresher and average values in the SE. The end of the run shows next weekend to be a very showery one with Low pressure gently drifting out of Britain into the North Sea on Sunday with a ridge crossing East on Monday drying things out for most temporarily.In Summary tonight there is little overall change from this morning's runs synoptically though there are subtle differences from this morning's output meaning small changes day to day and place to place, sometimes making all the difference at the surface. On reflection many places may come out of it OK this week with just scattered showers and the balance favouring dry conditions for much of the time. Winds will still be from a basic West or NW direction so there is unlikely to be any noteworthy warmth to enjoy although there is some evidence tonight that the SE could feel some warm temperatures and humidity towards the middle of the week with the risk of some thundery activity in places for a time before the UK trough realigns to whisk any warmth away over Europe.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday june 15th 2013.All models are finally on some agreement over the events leading up to midweek this morning. Today shows a showery WSW flow over the UK with a Low pressure crossing East over Northern Britain through the day. A ridge follows tonight killing off most of the showers with a new Low approaching the SW of England tomorrow. This slows down and stalls to the SW but throws a trough up into Southernmost areas through the day with rain at times moving up as far as South Wales to London through the day. The rain then dies back South temporarily before returning North and East over Tuesday leaving all areas with a quiet interlude midweek with a slack NW wind and just scattered showers over the North.GFS then brings new Low pressure over the North of the UK later in the week with troughs affecting all areas with rain at times for all with some brief drier interludes too. FI this morning shows little to inspire sun worshippers with a succession of fronts attached to Low pressure areas crossing the UK from the West in continuing brisk and cool winds with just brief drier interludes in between.The GFS Ensembles have shortened the duration of the warmer blip this morning for the early part of next week in the SE and quickly returns to the levels of normal values shared by the rest of the UK throughout the run. With rain scattered about throughout the run and all locations plus a good degree of tightness between the members supporting this pattern there seems little chance now of seeing anything particularly settled and warm this side of July.The Jet Stream remains the culprit for the continuing changeable pattern with an axis too far South to allow High pressure to settle near the UK instead steering Low pressure further South than normal towards the UK or just to the North instead of over Iceland and Northern waters.UKMO today shows a quiet period midweek with sunshine and a lot of dry weather over the UK for a time before troughs associated with Low pressure affect the North and West later in the week, spreading steadily SE with time.GEM today shows a very changeable pattern with the chance of some thundery rain midweek in the SE before all areas see a return to Atlantic based weather in association with troughs and low pressure feeding down from the NW.NAVGEM doesn't show a drier phase in the South midweek, reserving that for the North only as the Low to the South is shown to migrate NE across these areas midweek with some thundery rain in places for a time. The end of the run then shows the UK back under a West or NW flow of air with occasional rain, more especially over the North with temperatures remaining very close to average at best.ECM today shows a very changeable pattern with details irrelevant from day to day. It can best be described as an alternating pattern of periods of cloudy weather with rain at times while other days may see a predominance of bright and dry weather as transitory ridges pass, these most likely across the South. With winds always blowing from a West or NW direction it will never be very warm with temperatures close to the average range of 15-20C in the South and 12-17C in the North. Winds are often shown as brisk and cool.In Summary today the weather looks like staying in changeable mode over the next few weeks. This involves some rain at times for all areas but some reasonable drier and brighter spells too. The one constant that remains unchanged throughout the period is the balance of synoptics that support the Azores high remaining in place near the Azores and the continuing track of Low pressure sliding across the Atlantic further South than we would like due to a Jet Stream that remains persistently too far South. This keeps the door open for successive troughs and Low pressure to affect the UK from time to time. Also with winds for nearly all of the time between SW and NW we will never get any real summer warmth from this setup so taking all this into account this morning having dissected the model outputs it looks like July is likely to be the earliest point we may see anything remotely very warm or hot over the UK unless a major pattern change develops soon.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday June 14th 2013.All models are still very undecided on events beyond Sunday. In the mean time they are all agreed upon the current Low pressure moving across the UK tonight and tomorrow with rain followed by showers for the first half of the weekend in fresh to strong and squally WSW winds.GFS then shows the Low approaching the SW on Sunday with rain here before it retreats SE over Europe as well as it filling early next week. The weather would probably become drier with just the odd shower over Britain in a light NW breeze so not overly warm. Later in the week thundery rain moves NE over South and SE England with the dry weather elsewhere also becoming eroded from Low pressure moving in off the Atlantic by the weekend. So once the thundery rain leaves the SE Atlantic based rain moves in across the UK from the West on Saturday. FI then shows winds flowing down from the NW for the most parts and while there would only relatively small amounts of rain mostly in the North the weather will stay rather cloudy at times with spells of sun at times. Temperatures would be close to normal but feeling warm in any sun in the SE.The GFS Ensembles continue to show the SE benefitting from higher uppers early next week with the chance of thundery rain in places. Thereafter, the temperatures fall back to average levels for all with changeable conditions still the favoured option shown.The Jet Stream continues it's flow across the UK over the next few days before it troughs South over the UK early next week before reverting to a positions East over the UK later next week and the weekend.UKMO tonight shows a drier phase shortly after midweek under a ridge of High pressure before a return to troughs moving in off the Atlantic brings a return to bright spells and occasional rain late in the week.GEM tonight shows very little progress North of the Low on Sunday, affecting just the far South before a dry spell develops early next week with some pleasantly warm sunny spells for a time. However, as the week progresses the Low gains momentum and moves North across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all before a new Low moves in from the Atlantic at the end of the run maintaining the unsettled spell.NAVGEM too holds the Low more to the South with it's passage NE close to SE Britain through the middle of next week bringing some thundery showers across Southern and SE areas for a time midweek. The NW will see the best of the dry and bright conditions.ECM tonight likes the GFS method of carrying Low pressure across the SE through next week with a chance of some thundery rain for a time before the door is opened to the Atlantic again with Low pressure moving in from the West with rain at times along with a blustery and cool West wind.In Summary there is still indecision about Sunday's Low pressure let alone further out and small differences in the eventual positioning of that Low pressure can have stark implications for events later on next week so in essence the exact details of next week's events can be taken quite lightly at the moment and open to significant change. However, having said all that the broad scale pattern looks less likely to change and that means a continuation of unexciting weather with occasional rain mixed with dry weather with some sunshine and temperatures little better than normal for the next 10-14 days.

Good morning folks. Here is this morning's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday June 14th 2013.All models continue to feed Low pressure in from the West over the next day or so with showers or spells of rain affecting all of the UK over the next 24 hours followed by a sunshine and shower mix to start the weekend when the SE may not fair too bad despite a stiff breeze. By Sunday a new Low to the SW extends it's influence to much of England and Wales through the day and it's at this early point that the models diverge.GFS quickly removes the Low feature South where it fills leaving a slack ridge over the UK with sunny spells and just scattered showers. It will feel warmer in less wind than of late. Thundery rain though will not be far away on the very warm near Continent. This feeds into some Southeastern parts of England for a time through the week while Northern and Western parts stay cool and breezy with scattered showers and a cool North wind on Friday. The weekend sees the Atlantic regain control of the weather as a Low moves East to the North spreading wind and rain followed by showers across the UK. Through the rest of FI changeable conditions are shown and with winds between SW and NW it will never be overly warm though in the sheltered SE it will feel pleasant enough at times.The GFS Ensembles show a marked rise in uppers over SE Britain for a time early next week though this continues to be programmed with an increase in the incidence of rainfall so some effect may be lost at the surface due to cloud and precipitation. This rise in uppers quickly becomes weaker and non-existent for more Northern and Western areas where uppers remain close to average at best throughout with occasional rainfall. Beyond midweek next week the warmer uppers in the SE become devoured too by the cooler weather elsewhere.The Jet Stream maintains it's path across the Atlantic at around 50 deg N across Southern Britain and Europe. Early next week the flow buckles and sets up a troughing arrangement near the British Isles which continues off and on thereon.UKMO today shows Low pressure having filled and moved away East through midweek with the rain and showers of previous days in pause mode as a ridge builds across the South with dry and bright conditions, at least for a time. The NW though will become affected by a new Low out to the NW feeding rain bearing troughs slowly East across in a freshening SW breeze.GEM today fills Low pressure down to the South early next week with decreasing amounts of cloud and showers here for a time while the North enjoys a quieter and more sedate spell of weather before the Low to the South reinvigorates and moves NE over the Low Countries re-introducing showery rain to the South and opening the door to a return of Atlantic Westerlies and occasional rain by next weekend to all areas.NAVGEM, though slow to fill Low pressure to the South early next week does eventually do so and leaves a ridge of High pressure across the UK in rather cool air. However, the Low to the SE leaves a legacy of warm and humid air on the Continent and this keeps the risk of thundery rain close to the SE later next week while much of the UK enjoy benign and quiet weather with sunny spells and average temperatures in light North-Westerlies.ECM keeps the Low pressure to the South further South this morning affecting only Southernmost parts of England and Wales early next week with showery rain while the North stays largely dry and bright under a ridge. Through the week and weekend a messy picture develops with NW winds predominating and no particular weather system in overall control. The net result of this would likely be plenty of dry weather, especially towards the SE but with a lot of cloud at times and occasional rain or showers feeding down in the flow at times, most affecting the North. The one constant through next week is that it never becomes very warm with temperatures held back by the cool NW Atlantic influence to the airflow. It may feel pleasant enough in the SE though.In Summary today another set of runs and a slightly different way of saying the same as yesterday. First and foremost there is still little sign of a summer heatwave over the UK in the coming two weeks. On the plus side there is certainly no sign of anything substantially wet and in fact the models have trended towards things being somewhat less unsettled than on previous runs, especially ECM. The problem is that the Azores High refuses to be our friend remaining stubbornly anchored in it's home town and even though there are no major Low pressure areas near the UK as such it still refuses to ridge in to any great degree, instead maintaining a NW feed across Britain and keeping any Continental warmth or indeed home grown warmth to a minimum. The problem is with this setup is that it leaves the door open for Low pressure to feed down from the NW and though the models have relaxed this risk this morning, don't be surprised it it's returned over subsequent runs.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 13th 2013.All models show a mixed pattern over the coming three or four days. The behaviour of a depression to the SW by Sunday is instrumental to the sequence of events as we move through next week. In the meantime we have another depression's wind and rain to get through tomorrow and Saturday as a Low moves East across Northern areas. Winds will be particularly strong for this time of year across Southern Britain with gusts similar to those of today. In amongst all this temperatures for many will be suppressed but may reach reasonable levels tomorrow afternoon in the brighter intervals in the SE.GFS then moves into next week with Low pressure to the South of Britain with a ridge of high pressure over the North with some dry and bright weather up here while Southern areas remain at risk to rain or showers in winds turning Easterly. After a brief lull in the unsettled weather midweek Low pressure quickly takes control again in the second half of next week with brisk and cool winds returning from a West or NW direction with rain or showers at times for all. FI tonight maintains very changeable conditions over Britain with spells of rain at times as Low pressure pushes in from the West. A brief drier and warmer slot in association with a ridge of High pressure is shown though for a time in the middle of FI.The GFS Ensembles show good support for a warm up early in the week in the SE. Temperatures will rise above average with rather humid conditions triggering some thundery showers or heavy rain across the South and SE before things return to cool and unsettled conditions on Westerly winds again for all later.The Jet Stream continues to undulate across the Atlantic and the British Isles over the forseeable future maintaining the basic unsettled and changeable pattern now established.UKMO shows a weak ridge of High pressure across Southern Britain around the middle of next week replacing the previous days showery conditions with dry and brighter conditions across the UK though danger is looming to the NW with further Atlantic fronts likely to be approaching in the following days.GEM tonight shows Low pressure close to Southern Britain early next week with a showery weather pattern expected from this over the South. A ridge of High pressure should keep the North fine and bright. Through the week the ridge slips South through and away from Southern England bringing a phase of dry and bright weather for many before the Atlantic steps up a gear again late in the run with a North/South split developing with rain at times, most of it falling over more Northern areas while the South sees longer drier periods.NAVGEM shows the Low sliding Eastwards more slowly than it's counterparts with the unsettled and showery weather pattern persisting well into next week for many Southern areas. Towards the end of it's run the Atlantic gains a foothold again with rain bearing troughs moving in from the West again late in the run.ECM finally continues to show unsavoury synoptics for June with Low pressure in control of the weather next week firstly to the South and West and later to the North and West. The net result is showers or longer spells of rain featuring in the forecasts next week almost anywhere with the South most at risk early in the week and the West later. Temperatures remain relatively unexciting for the time of year and I'm sure it will feel cool in the breeze and rain. Towards the end of the run isobars open up under relatively Low pressure with maintained heavy showers and possible thunderstorms with the next Atlantic disturbance creeping down from the NW at the end frame of the run.In Summary tonight the theme remains unchanged. The weather looks like remaining very changeable over the UK over the coming two weeks. With an all too familiar pattern of Low pressure trundling in from either the West or NW and finding it's home over or near the UK remains with associated wind and rain showing it's hand over all areas from time to time. It's not all doom and gloom however and there will be days when favoured areas remain dry and feel relatively warm in bright sunshine but overall rain will never be far away as pressure refuses to rise significantly enough with the Azores High remaining a feature only of benefit to the Azores themselves. With winds predominating largely from a NW quarter one can hardly expect temperatures to be anything other than average or a little below for much of the period over the UK with the exception of early next week in the SE.

Hi everyone. Here is the morning report taken from the midnight outputs issued by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 13th 2013.All models continue to programme an unsettled spell with wind and rain featuring in the UK for all between now and the start of next week. While many areas will see relatively small amounts of rain there will be some heavier bursts around too either in the form of heavy showers across central and Eastern areas today or from more general areas of rain likely tomorrow and Saturday in the North and West and the SW on Sunday. Temperatures as a result will be fairly suppressed and it will often be rather windy.GFS then shows Low pressure to the SW to start the week, transferring it slowly SE through the week while it fills bringing some occasionally heavy rain to Southern and SW areas for a time. It could become briefly warm and humid towards the SE early next week. Once the Low weakens and pulls away SE it leaves a weak ridge over the UK in a basic NW flow with complications in the form of showery troughs making there way SE over the UK maintaining a rather chilly feel with showers scattered about but some sunnier intervals too. FI is relentless this morning in holding winds from a West or NW direction with showers or outbreaks of rain moving West to East across the UK on occasion and holding any prospect of significantly warmer conditions well away from UK shores in this run.The GFS Ensembles endorse the above completely with occasional rain and a strong Atlantic influence to the pattern with winds from a basic Westerly quadrant.The Jet Stream maintains it's East or NE axis across the Atlantic and the British Isles before developing a trough around the UK later which remains maintained for some considerable time pulling weather systems SE to the NE of the UK as the Jet returns North from the base of the trough over Eastern Britain or the North Sea late next week.UKMO today shows Low pressure to the SW of the UK at the end of the weekend migrating it steadily East over the early days of next week to leave a slack NW flow by midweek. The weather would be largely unsettled and rather cool with sunshine and heavy showers perhaps prolonged at first next week in the South. Some places may become dry by midweek missing the showers. Temperatures would most likely remain suppressed below levels that we would all like to see for this time in June.GEM today also maintains a very changeable pattern next week. It too fills the Low to the SW at the weekend as it moves away ESE leaving a slack and unstable NNW flow with scattered showers before the Atlantic regains control with Low pressure trundling in off the Atlantic passing fronts over the UK with attendant wind and rain followed by showers. It would remain cool and often rather windy later next week.NAVGEM shows a different approach to unsettled conditions next week and on it's run the North might no fair badly for a while. The Low to the SW is shown to amble around eventually re-invigorating and encircling Southern Britain through the week with outbreaks of rain or showers in generally cyclonic winds.ECM today shows the Low filling too early next week but leaving a void pressure pattern for a time as winds settle NW. After some heavy rain possibilities for the South and SW early in the week a drier phase would evolve with just well scattered showers but with some bright or sunny spells. The weather reverts to form by the end of the run with the Atlantic sending another depression our way, close to Northern Scotland with a Westerly flow carrying troughs across from the West bringing rain followed by showers type weather. Needless to say with the Atlantic influence maintained temperatures would remain unremarkable for mid to late June.In Summary again today the models have dished us up a very uninspiring set of runs with few straws to clutch for those looking for a sustained warm and summery spell nationwide. Instead we remain chasing Low pressures around which continue to dictate our weather with mixed fortunes across the UK from day to day. We have to pin our hopes on the possibility of a transient ridge towards the middle of next week to deliver anything dry on a Nationwide scale and even then it is shown to be replaced by a resurgence of the Atlantic Jet Stream moving towards the UK with depressions close to northern Scotland with wind and rain at times for all.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday June 12th 2013.All models show Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK over the coming few days with rain at times driven along by a fresh wind from the West or SW. There will be some brief drier and brighter interludes on Friday and again on Sunday away from the SW as the next Low pressure stalls towards the SW.GFS shows this Low over Ireland with further rain and strong winds bearing down on the Uk on Monday. As the Low tracks NE the weather slowly improves with a lighter NW flow developing and scattered showers replacing the more significantly unsettled conditions of early in the week. This basic NW flow persists for the remainder of the run with a short spell under a ridge of High pressure for Southern Britain. Temperatures throughout tonight's GFS run are suppressed to average levels at best.The GFS Ensembles again look very ordinary with some rainfall at times throughout the run North to South.The Jet Stream maintains it's East or NE flow across the UK with a dip below the UK for a time early next week before it returns to it's current trajectory again later.UKMO tonight shows Low pressure filling slowly over the UK early next week with rain or showers for all in temperatures held to near average values.GEM tonight holds the weekend Low further to the SW then the other models allowing warm and humid air to flirt with the SE for a time before the Low transfers North through the UK with rain followed by Atlantic westerlies again late in the run.NAVGEM shows the Low slipping slowly across the UK early next week with unsettled weather maintained for all with a slow rise in pressure late in the run as a slack NNW flow brings a mix of sunshine and scattered showers.ECM finally shows the Low filling as it moves across the UK from the SW early next week with a cool and blustery WNW flow following with showers in places along with very breezy conditions too. Later in the run the pattern flattens to a Westerly flow with a North/South split developing with the most unsettled conditions returning to more Northern areas while the South sees a little warmer conditions though with a breeze from the SW and plenty of cloud for most of the time.In Summary there are some changes to the synoptic pattern expected next week between the models however the net result is basically more of the same with plenty of unsettled weather expected with rain at times under rather cool conditions in a fresh breeze. There will no doubt be drier and brighter interludes between the showers or rain but they look hard to come by in a lasting state from the output on offer tonight and there is certainly nothing particularly summery to grasp one's hopes too either.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midday output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday June 11th 2013.All models show an unsettled spell of weather to come as Low pressure and fronts move steadily NE over the coming three or four days with rain at times for all along with fresh breezes and temperatures close to normal. By Sunday all models show the next Low pressure area stalling near the UK with further showers or rain at times continuing into next week.GFS keeps the Low as a secondary feature close to Southern Britain on Sunday which moves East into Europe with a chilly Northerly flow with showers the order of events early next week. Through the week a ridge builds across the North of the UK while the South sees Low pressure moving up from the South bringing thundery rain before the Atlantic takes control again under Westerly winds and changeable conditions by the end of the week which continues then until the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles show a very uninspiring set with the operational at the 20C point on the 20th being a wild outlier. Overall a period of average uppers look likely with rain at times throughout the run North and South.The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to cross East and NE over the Atlantic and across the British Isles for the upcoming period.UKMO tonight shows a slow moving Low pressure area over Southern Britain early next week with rain or showers at times in temperatures close to average or a little below.GEM tonight also shows a slow moving Low pressure area over Western Britain early next week with plenty of rain at times for most evolving on to a cool and unstable WNW flow with further showers or rain at times out to the end of it's run.NAVGEM tonight holds the slow moving Low pressure at a more Southerly point South of Britain but close enough to affect conditions across Southern Britain with potentially thundery rain at times while the North stays somewhat drier.ECM finally shows Low pressure down to the SW of the UK late this coming weekend and into next week with showers or outbreaks of potentially thundery rain moving North at times over the UK. It may become quite humid in the SE for a time. Towards the end of the run tonight the Low to the SW drifts North and fills but maintains a cool and rather showery and unstable cool pool across the UK with embedded troughs keeping the cool and unsettled spell going.In Summary tonight prospects do not look good if it's fine and settled weather your after. No doubt there will be some fine days but rain or showers will never be far away as Low pressure remains the dominant feature for the British Isles in the coming 10-14 days. Temperatures will remain close to normal and in any brightness it will no doubt feel OK, especially towards the SE at times. However, in spells of rain or under showers it will feel cool and often rather breezy.

Good morning. Here is the report of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday June 11th 2013.All models show an unsettled period to come with a succession of troughs associated with Low pressure to the NW crossing the UK from time to time delivering spells of rain and showers, some heavy between now and Sunday. Some drier intervals look possible too with the heaviest rain likely in the North while the South may see a drier interlude on Friday.GFS then shows the remainder of the run with High pressure anchored just too far away to the SW near the Azores to be of any meaningful benefit to the UK with either slack Low pressure or centres to the North and East bathing the UK in winds from the West or NW with cool conditions delivering rain at times for all in temperatures around average or slightly below.The GFS Ensembles show a poor set this morning if it's sun and warmth your after as they indicate very average temperature values throughout with just a few members offering a brief excursion to something rather warmer for a time. There is precipitation shown for all throughout the run with the biggest degree of this looking likely for more Northern locations, though nowhere is immune.The GFS Jet Stream pattern shows the flow approaching the UK from the SW currently and maintaining a SW/NE pattern for some time to follow. Later it undulates North over the Atlantic then South of the UK putting the UK under a trough next week.UKMO this morning shows an unsettled weekend with the UK under Low pressure which settles over Southern Britain by the start of the new week but maintaining a very showery and sometimes wet pattern for many in very ordinary temperatures for mid June.GEM today tracks Low pressure across the UK early next week with rain and strong winds for a time. Thereafter, pressure gently rises with a slack ridge of High pressure bringing drier and warmer conditions later next week with just the odd shower left by then.NAVGEM brings a ridge of High pressure up from the Azores early next week squeezing Low pressure away to the South and leading the UK into a fine and more settled picture with sunny spells and steadily recovering temperatures.ECM finally too brings the NAVGEM evolution into play though it's influence is more reserved towards Northern districts as a cut off Low feature to the South of the UK remains close enough to pose a threat for some thundery showers before the Atlantic returns once more across the UK by Day 10 with rain at times for all again by then.In Summary a very changeable spell of weather commences from today with periods of rain or showers mixed with some drier and brighter spells. The South look the most likely place to see longer dry spells, especially on Friday while a more general interlude of better weather may develop for a time early next week as a ridge from the Azores high is shown by some output to move into Britain for a time. It doesn't look like lasting though as some of the outputs show a reversion to more Atlantic type weather returning later in the week and those that don't show the High pressure as a weak and open, slack type version under pressure from the NW. It looks some way off before a return to more universal UK settled, fine and warm weather looks likely to grace our shores at the moment.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday June 9th 2013.All models show wind of change in the next 24 hours. The persistent ridge which has served to give mixed fortunes in recent days is finally giving ground to Atlantic fronts moving in from the West and SW tonight and tomorrow. Though most places will have a dry and reasonably warm day today with sunny spells, cloud and rain will move into the West tonight and at first tomorrow, then on to other areas by Wednesday. Through the remainder of the working week a changeable pattern will ensue with spells of rain, wind and showers mixed with some dry and bright interludes especially later Tuesday and early Friday.GFS then shows this coming weekend to be windy and wet in the NW but drier in the South and East with the wet and unsettled conditions in the NW extending SE to all areas through Sunday and into Monday. Pressure is then shown to build from the SW for a time with several dry and warm days likely for England and Wales before the changeable pattern returns with the precursor of some thundery rain in the SE. Then the changeable pattern takes hold, again from the NW with rain at times along with a fresh and cool breeze to end the run.The GFS Ensembles show a very average set this morning. Despite a few members (including the operational) showing off shoots into very warm territory at times they are not well supported with the vast majority painting a changeable pattern of weather indicative of a not unusual pattern of Westerly winds in Summer meaning rain at times with some dry and sunnier interludes too.The Jet Stream is currently crossing the Atlantic on a basic trajectory to cross the UK and away NE into Northern Europe. With this NE movement it shows a tendency for Low pressure to lie to the NW with the UK in the firing line of troughs and attendant rain moving West to East over the UK at times.UKMO shows a fairly unsettled weekend with the SE fairing best with any dry and bright weather while all other areas take in rain or showers at times with Low pressure just to the North of Scotland and South-West of England.GEM is broadly similar though under different synoptics with a cold front carrying rain SE over the UK next Sunday followed by several days of cool NW winds and showers before what looks like a temporary ridge building NE across the UK late in the run drying things up for many at least for a time.NAVGEM today shows a changeable next weekend with some rain for all while things turn even more unsettled to start the new working week with a depression moving East over the UK to bring rain and strong winds at times.ECM finally looks a lot like it's partner UKMO with it's synoptics next weekend. Low pressure lies close to the North with another centre to the SW with rain and wind transferring NE across the UK at some point. Winds then turn Northerly, with a day or so of heavy showers before a ridge builds across the UK through the middle of next week though it might not last long in the South as Low pressure over Biscay next Thursday brings a thundery rain risk North into South and West Britain to end the week.In Summary this morning the weather pattern over the coming two weeks can best be described as changeable with rain at times for all but with some drier and brighter spells too especially but not exclusively over Southern and Eastern Britain. While there is nothing particularly chilly shown in uppers there certainly is no heatwave likely either though the injections of high pressure from the SW at times could turn things briefly warmer, again specifically across the South and East.

Good morning. Here is my viewpoint on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today sunday June 9th 2013.All models show a ENE flow over England and Wales with a high pressure ridge extending down towards the north of the UK today. This becomes increasingly squeezed out through tomorrow as pressure falls to the West allowing Low pressure to the NW and a trough to extend East into the UK over Tuesday nad more definitively on Wednesday. This then clears away NE by Thursday with a new low and accompanying troughs advancing East into the UK by then. In a nutshell this means a few more days of dry and bright weather with less low cloud by night with time and warm afternoon sunny spells. A few showers are possible in the NW. By midweek cloud and rain will move slowly East across the UK with scattered showers following in the North. Amounts of rain in the South look likely to be small.GFS then shows the potential for some thundery rain at the weekend in the SE before FI this morning shows a changeable pattern developing with a generally Westerly flow looking likely with occasional rain or showers at times, especially but not exclusively in the North. Temperatures will revert to average values at best for mid June with a few warmer days at times in the South as transient ridges occasionally pass East.The GFS Ensembles show a typical Atlantic style pattern over the UK as we move onward from midweek with average uppers in the North and slightly above average in the South. As one would expect in this likely scenario rainfall amounts are most frequent in Northern and Western locations of the UK with the least (but still some) likely in the SE at times.The Jet Stream shows a strengthening flow developing over the Atlantic set to cross the UK on the way to Northern areas of Europe later in the week which is very indicative of where you would expect to see it when confronted with a spell of mobile Atlantic Westerlies in Summer.UKMO this morning shows a largely SW flow over the UK at the start of next weekend. Following an unsettled spell midweek the weather becomes drier in the SE close to High pressure while the SW flow continues for Northern and Western areas with rain at times as fronts pass by. Temperatures look like being close to average next weekend but it might feel reasonably warm at times in any sunny intervals between the large amounts of cloud in the SE.GEM today also shows a similar pattern later next week and through the weekend with a Westerly flow over the UK with occasional rainfall, mostly but not exclusively in the NW with fairly average temperatures in a sometimes brisk West or SW wind.NAVGEM today also shows a largely SW feed over the UK through the same time period with the driest, brightest and warmest weather likely for the SE while many other Northern and Western areas see more extensive cloud cover and rain at times in a brisk SW wind. Temperatures overall would be close to average.ECM finally is much the same with Low pressure out to the NW at the end of the week driving Low pressure disturbances NE across the UK in a brisk SW flow. The heaviest rain will be towards the high ground of the North and West though there will be sufficient energy from these systems to reach the SE at times too. Temperatures would be close to average for much of the time but may border rather chilly later as showery WNW winds move in off a still chilly Atlantic Ocean.In Summary today it looks increasingly likely that a more mobile Atlantic weather pattern will develop over the UK with time. That's not to say there won't be some pleasantly dry and bright days at times, especially in the SE where spells of predominantly dry if rather cloudy weather looks likely with very occasional rain. Further North and West rainfall looks rather more likely carried east and NE on a fresh breeze at times. Temperatures look like being close to average for large parts of the time but a few warm days are possible for the SE should sunshine be allowed to poke through the cloud for any length of time.