Gibby

Hi folks. Here is the evening report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 15th 2013. All models show a broadly unsettled period between now and the start of the next week. With areas of Low pressure quite shallow and flabby details will always be elusive with areas of rain and showers revolving around a general low complex near the South of the UK. Some places will fair quite well missing a lot of the showers while other areas see rather a lot of rain at times. GFS then shows next week with the fairly static pattern of High pressure to the NW and Low pressure to the South and SW of the UK. The NW half of the UK would have a fairly decent week next week with sunny spells and temperatures becoming reasonably warm in the sunshine. In the South and SE there would be some reasonable weather too at times but here the risk of showers would remain, greater on some days than others in temperatures close to normal. Through the remainder of FI the pattern of High pressure to the North and Low to the North remains with the best of the dry conditions remaining in the North with the continued threat from showers at times in the South. The GFS Ensembles show a wet spell coming up followed by a slow reduction in the amounts of rainfall over the following period. Uppers, after rising above average fall back somewhat and it maybe with less rainfall later in the output that the benefit of these could be felt at the surface if sunshine is allowed to play a role in the weather over the coming 2 weeks. The Jet Stream shows the same pattern as this morning with the track South to the West of the UK and North to the East maintained for a time. later the trough breaks down with the flow split. The Northern arm moves NE well North of the UK with another arm well South over Southern Europe. UKMO tonight shows slack Low pressure covering much of NW Europe with heavy thundery downpours at times in temperatures near or a little above average in any sunnier spells between the showers. The most showers would most likely be in the South with the driest conditions to the North. GEM shows slow and temporary improvements next week as Low pressure gradually fills and moves away in response to a slow rise of pressure off the Atlantic High. Later on though Low pressure slips back down over the UK from the North reviving the unsettled weather at the end of the run. NAVGEM too shows gentle improvements through next week as the Atlantic High makes inroads towards the UK. It could take most of the week though to remove the threat of showers away from the far South. ECM tonight shows rather poor conditions tonight as the UK trough remains firmly anchored close to the UK with various often shallow Low pressure areas delivering showers or spells of rain mixed with some drier and sunnier spells. Temperatures do recover though with the growing season well under way from these showery synoptics. Nights though would remain very chilly. The end of the run shows more Low pressure reinforcements pushing down from the NW maintaining the unsettled theme. In Summary there are few signs of any significant change towards long term settled and warm conditions in the near future. At best tonight the models show some infiltration of High pressure from the Atlantic into more Northern areas next week giving respectable weather and restricting the shower risk to the South. ECM tonight is a disappointment in that it doesn't really show any injection of such higher pressure at all maintaining a UK based trough with further reinforcements from the NW at the end of it's run. On the plus side the cool uppers of recent days will drain away soon so at least the showers that fall will be a warmer variety and help promote the growing season and in any sunshine it will feel reasonably warm.

Hi everyone. Here is the morning look at the midnight output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 14th 2013. All models continue the unsettled theme for the rest of the week with Low pressure never far away from the UK. With cool uppers over the UK for a few more days temperatures will be suppressed by day and more notably by night with a grass frost likely in places for the next few nights. Over the weekend the uppers will warm somewhat from the East but the weather remains disturbed with further rain or showers at times into next week. GFS then takes us through next week with a NW/SE split developing. With High pressure out to the West of Scotland with dry and bright weather developing in these NW areas next week. Further South and East a NE flow will maintain somewhat chillier weather with occasional showers. Changes through FI today are slow but involve the sinking SE of the High cell to the NW before taking it back North again in distant FI. The net result would be that the dry weather in the NW would become more extensive over the UK for a time before low pressure moves back up towards Southern Britain with a return to showery rain and cooler weather in an Easterly breeze. The GFS Ensembles today show uppers rising strongly over the North towards the weekend and less so in the South before the pattern reflects a steady fall of uppers towards average levels in the second week though with plenty of options between the members. There is rain shown scattered about throughout the output indicative that the warmer uppers may not necessarily be translated to the surface with cloud and rain suppressing any sustained warmth from sunshine. The Jet Stream shows the UK trough setting up over the next few days before the Jet Stream breaks up into a weak cyclonic flow South of the UK. Later the flow splits into a weak northern arm moving NE to the North of the UK and the weak cyclonic system to the South centred on an Eastward moving flow over North Africa in a week's time. UKMO this morning takes us well into next week with the whole of NW Europe covered in shallow Low pressure meaning a continuation of the unstable pattern with thundery showers at times but some bright and dry spells too with some pleasantly warm May sunshine between the showers. GEM too this morning keeps the UK in a locked pattern with shallow Low pressure sitting comfortably over Southern Britain early next week setting up shot to the East of the UK later in the week. The resultant Northerly feed would maintain a cool feel with sunshine and showers the likely weather type with any meaningful High pressure held well West of the UK. NAVGEM maintains a shallow Low pressure areas close to Southern Britain and Northern France next week with the best of the dry and sunny weather in the NW while Southern and eastern Britain would remain in a more showery theme with shorter dry and bright spells in between. near average temperatures look likely next week which is an improvement on this week. ECM finally shows a showery first half to next week before a North/South split develops towards the end of the week as a ridge from the Azores High ridges towards Southern Britain.The problem is with Low pressure moving East towards Iceland pulling Westerly winds across the North with Atlantic fronts in tow bringing rain Eastwards towards the end of the month. In Summary the weather remains in showery mode with the UK stuck under a trough for the next week at least and possibly longer. ECM does offer something of an olive branch later as a ridge building towards Southern Britain offers some respite late next week. The problem is it is likely to be shoved away South with time as the Low to the North and attendant fronts move steadily SE beyond day 10. The rather cool conditions though should slowly lose their grip by this weekend as warmer uppers aloft should rise temperatures to near average levels generally and perhaps slightly above should any prolonged sunny spells occur next week.

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday May 14th 2013. All models show a small but intense depression near SW England transferring NE overnight. Heavy rainfall in association with this will also move NE clearing from the SW later in the night but accompanied by a short spell of gale force NW winds. Further North the weather will be altogether quieter with clear intervals and a cold night with some showers near Western coasts. Tomorrow, Thursday and Friday all share showery days once the remaining overnight rain clears the East tomorrow evening. The showers will be heavy with hail and thunder in places but some pleasant sunny spells too with temperatures still on the cold side of average. GFS then shows the weekend with a very deep and inclement Low near NE England on Saturday swirling SW then South over the weekend maintaining wet and cold conditions for all before the new week sees the isobars open out as the low moves away to the South with sunny spells and scattered showers returning into the new week. Through FI tonight the operational tries desperately hard to settle the weather down with the large Atlantic anticyclone pushing a ridge towards the UK at times. However, it never quite succeeds through the period keeping the risk of at least some further showery activity in a light North or NW flow with further more widespread unsettled conditions drifting in from the NW to end the run. The GFS Ensembles show a surge of uppers to above average, especially in the North with more variation developing later in the run here. In the South the trend upwards to more average levels are maintained with showers the order of the weather throughout after the heavier rainfall at the weekend. The Jet Stream shows the UK trough now formed, lasting for a few days before the flow breaks up with a Northern arm though weak extending across the Atlantic towards Iceland by the middle of next week with a weak flow continuing well South over North Africa. UKMO shows a weekend with Low pressure centred to the South and East of the UK with a slack North flow over Britain. Embedded troughs would deliver spells of thundery rain mixed with some sunny intervals and thundery showers. In any sunny spells that develop between the outbreaks of rain it would begin to feel reasonably warm. GEM shows an inclement weekend too as deep Low pressure moves West to Southern Britain with copious rain and cool winds for most over the UK. next week shows the NW as the place to be as pressure builds sufficiently enough to bring some fine and dry weather with sunny spells. However Low pressure is more reluctant to leave the South next week maintaining sunny intervals and thundery showers in near average temperatures in a moderate NE breeze. NAVGEM tonight also shows a similar evolution with Low pressure eventually moving South of the UK with it's attendant showers protracted to Southern areas whereas the North sees the best of the dry and bright weather on offer. One consolation though temperatures would be on the rise everywhere though. ECM tonight is very half-hearted in bringing improvements into the UK next week following this coming weekend's very unsettled weather. It, a little like GFS shows some weak ridging into the UK from the Atlantic High but it fails to achieve any major inroads maintaining a somewhat showery NW airflow with further showers in places. Towards the end of the run the Atlantic High recedes further, with renewed low pressure energy sinking down from the NW to bring yet another spell of unsettled weather with rain at times and Atlantic winds. In Summary tonight there is still little sign of any significant fine and settled weather in the coming two weeks. All the models show variations on a theme of Atlantic High pressure unable to make sufficient inroads against an unstable pool of air over or near the UK to replace the rather showery theme we have become accustomed to. To make matters worse the upbeat GEM and recent runs of other models pointing towards better conditions have been watered down tonight with further showers or outbreaks of rain likely for all in the continuing disappointing end to Spring.

Hi folks. Here's my morning account on the midnight output taken from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday May 14th 2013. All models illustrate a cool and unsettled spell for the remainder of the week as low pressure continues to circulate around or over the UK for the next 4-5 days at least. This means within a broad showery pattern with some heavy and thundery ones scattered about there will be some longer spells of rain too, notably today across the South and across the East too tonight, Friday and Saturday. It will be on the cool side at all times but notably so under the precipitation though with some compensatory sunny intervals in between when it will feel relatively pleasant. GFS then leads us out of the weekend and into the new working week with a NW/SE split developing with the best of the dry and pleasant conditions reserved for the NW for a change with some pleasant sunny spells here while Southern and Eastern England are prone to showers in association with Low pressure continuing to dominate areas to the South of the UK, edging further North at times. Gradually in this run the showery trough to the South extends back North through the following week putting all areas at risk of some rain or showers with average temperatures likely in relatively light winds. The end of the run this morning show quite complex synoptics but in essence Low pressure will be inching closer into the UK from the West maintaining the unsettled pattern with occasional rainfall a risk for all in average temperatures at best. The GFS Ensembles indicate a warming to above average uppers after the coming week's coolness. The problem is will this be translated to the surface and with all the unsettled and flabby Low pressure areas that look likely to persist close to the UK, especially the South I think nearer to normal temperatures are more likely to be translated at the surface coupled with rain at times. These ensembles do provide good growing prospects though for farmers and growers as we lift out of the cold pattern. The Jet Stream shows the UK trough forming as we speak promoting the rapid growth of today's depression as it moves East. The trough in the flow lasts for several days before the Jet develops a split flow again next week with both arms relatively weak. The southern portion will be blowing across the Meditteranean while the Northern arm is way up over Iceland to Northern Norway. UKMO this morning has Low pressure over the English Channel next Monday with unsettled weather continuing for all following a fairly grotty weekend. There would be showers or longer spells of rain, especially in the South and it would continue to feel none to warm in the rain. The far NW will see the best of the dry and sunnier interludes and it could well be warmer then most in shelter from the East. GEM today shows a similar 144hr chart to UKMO which then moves on to show the Low filling and moving away with pressure building strongly down from the NW so that by Day 10 all areas have become dry and warm with sunny spells under a strong ridge from the Azores. NAVGEM is poor though in comparison maintaining Low pressure in control of the UK weather out to the end of it's run with further days of showers and sunny intervals with the odd more prolonged spell of rain too for good measure as Low pressure on Day 8 remains close to the East coast. ECM finally does show improvements as we move out of the weekend and into next week as it attempts to throw something of a ridge in from the Atlantic High. This would mean a reduction (though not total) in showers as we move into next week with a slack flow from the North or NW. Alas it doesn't look like lasting though, especially in the North as Low pressure is developing to the NW to bring cloud and rain into these parts soon after the term of the run with the synoptic orientation suggesting that this would extend SE to other areas too in the days that followed. In Summary we remain locked in a relatively unsettled and showery pattern of weather for quite a while yet. It does look as though the very cool conditions we are currently enduring under the rain and showers will slowly lift away lover the coming weekend bringing temperatures at the surface up to what we would normally expect at this time of year and maybe above in any sunshine. However removing the unsettled weather is a tougher nut to crack as the Atlantic High remains stubbornly anchored out West maintaining the risk of the showery trough over NW Europe to persist and perhaps get reinforced at times. GEM does offer a crumb of comfort though and being that it's 144hr chart is closely replicated by UKMO's then I hold on to the hope that maybe UKMO would follow suit to GEM's conclusion if it ran until Day 10. So there you have it I'll be back later to disect the 12zs.

I have issued a Weather Warning for the folks in my area on my website from the four possible factors from tomorrow's event which could make tomorrow a very noteworthy day in our little patch. i.e. heavy rain, strong winds, low temperatures and snow. Not bad for mid May.

I have issued a Weather Warning for the folks in my area on my website from the four possible factors from tomorrow's event which could make tomorrow a very noteworthy day. i.e. heavy rain, strong winds, low temperatures and snow. Not bad for mid May.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Monday May 13th 2013. All models continue to programme a cool and unsettled week as Low pressure slips down from the North. A small but significant Low pressure develops near SW Britain tomorrow with some persistent and heavy rain with unusually low temperatures through tomorrow for Southern parts of England and Wales. The heavy showery type pattern further North will extend to other areas through the week with some hail and thunder in places as winds fall lighter but conditions remain relatively cool. At the weekend the models diverge somewhat in how they handle developments to the East of the UK. GFS shows the Low over Germany moving SW to the Low Countries then away South early next week. Spells of heavy rain could well affect the East on Sunday in a very chilly Northerly breeze. Brighter conditions with scattered showers on a lighter Northerly wind would affect Western areas with this weather extending to the East soon into the working week. The rest of the run shows High pressure out to the SW and Low pressure drifting ESE to the North of Scotland. The resultant conditions would best be described as bright and at times dry weather in the South while the North mostly maintain the unsettled conditions with rain at times spreading further South at times. With winds always from between West and North temperatures would stay normal at best but would feel OK in sunny breaks in the SE. More generally showery weather develops over the UK at the end of the run as slack Low pressure develops over the UK again. The GFS Ensembles are still trending in the right direction tonight. In getting to the warmer conditions we are subjected to another week of unsettled and at times wet weather before things slowly become less unsettled. There is quite a spread in the pack tonight towards the end of the run and there is less impact from any warming in Northern locations. The Jet Stream shows the trough forming in the flow over the UK Sea areas over the coming days where it remains in situ for some time. Eventually the trough collapses with a weak Northern arm of the flow drifting gently East into the UK in a week or so time. UKMO tonight has a cool and sometimes wet weekend written all over it. Northerly winds will blow fresh for all of the weekend and with Low pressure over Europe closing in on the SE some heavy rain and cloudy skies look likely for many, worst in the East. GEM today shows a ridge from the Azores High over the NW at the weekend with the European Low further away but close enough to affect England and Wales with a chilly NNE breeze and showers. Through the remainder of the run some dry and bright conditions look likely as the ridge extends it's influence South to England before renewed Low pressure slips into NW areas at the end of the run with rain extending steadily SE across many areas. NAVGEM tonight shows a NW/SE split tonight from the weekend as a ridge from the Atlantic High pressure ridges NE over Scotland. The NW would become largely dry with some sunny spells through the remainder of the run. With Low pressure over Europe the pressure gradient will be quite steep over Southern and Eastern Britain with strong winds and outbreaks of rain or showers continuing for many here out to the end of the run. ECM shows a cool and windy weekend for Southern Britain with rain or showers in abundance, some heavy and thundery in a gusty NE or East wind. The North will see some improvements in the same time frame as High pressure builds from the Atlantic, across Scotland and Scandinavia. The end of the run sees a disappointment tonight as it has backed away from it's early summer stance this morning to show a slack, cool and showery Northerly then NW flow over the UK with embedded weak troughs and still rather cool conditions. In Summary tonight there is a slow step back again from the models with ECM being the biggest disappointment. It seems that it's going to be a slow and painful road to remove the cold pool situated over the UK currently with many setbacks along the way. There is evidence of ridging NE from the Atlantic High at times bringing some more settled conditions with some sunshine should it occur but there is no concrete evidence of any sustained fine and settled weather with warm temperatures tonight with disturbances moving down from the NW overriding any short term improvements continuing to be a favoured option.

Good morning everyone. here is my report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 13th 2013. All models maintain the theme of this week that has been shown for many runs now. An unsettled week ahead looks likely with Low pressure slipping South over the UK exacerbated by a disturbance running East into Southern Britain tomorrow bringing showers and in the South a particularly wet day tomorrow. By Wednesday Low pressure will be centred over the UK with a mix of sunshine and scattered heavy showers over the UK though some parts as always in showery setups may miss them and see a lot of dry and reasonable weather. By Friday Low pressure will be more likely centred to the South or SE of Britain and developments from their may bring some thundery rain NW across Southern and Eastern Britain to set us up for a cool and breezy northerly flow at the weekend with further showers or rain at times. GFS then moves us into next week with a NW flow, so still staying on the cool side with further showers running down in the flow, particularly to the North and West where some longer spells of rain are possible, close to Low pressure to the NW. Unfortunately this morning the improvements of last night are muted from GFS with slack Low pressure maintained near to the UK with further rain at times right out to the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles today although a slight step back from last night still show some signs of optimism as the trend is still upwards, especially later in the run with rainfall amounts reducing with time. The operational was a cold outlier late in the run over Northern locations. The Jet Stream shows the anticipated trough in the flow developing over the UK through the week. Then we will see the trough disrupt and decay as a split flow develops again with the Southern arm well South near North Africa while a Northern arm moving East or NE just to the north of the UK in a week's time. UKMO today has a deep Low over the Southern North Sea on Sunday with a chilly Northerly flow over the UK. It will be a cloudy and windy spell with very cool conditions too with cloud and outbreaks of rain scattered around over the UK, perhaps heavy and prolonged towards the East. GEM today shows the low pressure further East over Germany at the weekend with a NW flow down over the UK with showers likely. It then draws further Low pressure down towards the Northern North Sea with further rain and showers likely well into next week. NAVGEM is trying hard to get improvements into the UK with the help of the Azores High ridging towards Scotland late next weekend and into the following week. However, it is a slow trend and Low pressure remains stubbornly close over the near Continent maintaining a chilly feed of air down from the North with showers in the East lasting well into next week. ECM is the pick of the bunch today with High pressure ridging strongly NE from the Azores early next week removing the chilly and showery conditions with dry and increasingly warm conditions especially in the west. By the end of the run High pressure has total control of the UK weather centred close to the NW with some very warm temperatures possible here by midweek next week. Further South and East there will also be some dry and settled weather but here Eastern coasts would become cool and grey with low cloud lapping in off the North Sea which could move SW in the flow over much of Southern Britain each night, burning back slowly through each day. In Summary there are mixed messages again from the outputs this morning. After an unsettled week agreed upon by all output this week there are various options on the table this morning. GFS, GEM and UKMO look like there would be a slow road to improvements in the weather next week which may be scuppered by further developments from the NW. However, NAVGEM and more especially ECM bring the Azores High towards the UK breaking us out of the pattern of cool and showery weather with some welcome sunny weather especially in the NW although I doubt Eastern Coastal Counties would be clapping their hands at the prospect of a spell of NE winds under an anticyclone this early in the season.

Good evening. Here is tonight's assessment of the 12 noon output of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday May 12th 2013. The pattern for this week has long been resolved with Low pressure sinking South over the UK with rain and showers for all in generally cool or rather cool conditions. Later in the week the isobars open out over the UK meaning lighter winds and slow moving showers and possibly more prolonged heavy rain in the SE. GFS then shows a steady but slow improvement starting in the SW and gradually working it's way slowly North and East over the UK, eroding away at the unstable NW flow covering the UK with further rain and showers. By the middle of the second week pressure has built markedly to form a UK based High which steadily moves East sucking up increasingly warm conditions over the UK with sunny spells. Most of the UK is then dry towards the end of the run with no more than the risk of a thundery shower in the SW for a time. The GFS Ensembles show much improvement tonight with warmer air progressively taking control over our weather, particularly in the second week. After frequent outbreaks of rain in the first week the second week sees progressively drier conditions slowly take control. The Jet Stream shows a deep troughing of the flow over the UK this coming week before the pattern collapses and the Jet stream becomes split with a flow East over Africa and a very weak Northern arm blowing into Northern Scotland from the West in a week or so. UKMO continues to keep Low pressure near to the UK to start next weekend, centred over Germany with a Northerly flow over the nation with further showers and cool conditions especially near the East coast. The NW would see the brightest and driest conditions. GEM tonight has a slight improvement too over recent output showing a trend towards ridging from the Azores High for a time next weekend. However, the trend is a slow one and a temporary one with scope for further showers over the UK until the end of the run at least as a slack Low pressure area from the North regains some control over the UK weather. NAVGEM maintains broadly unsettled conditions over the end of it's run with winds based from between West and North with further rain and showers at times in generally chilly conditions. ECM tonight shows a showery end to the week followed by a nasty Low pressure deepening over Germany and moving West to Holland on Sunday with a cold and very wet day for many Southern and Eastern areas in a strong Northerly wind. The North and West would see the best of a bad day with less rainy and less cold conditions though still windy. Towards the end of the run the drier NW will extend it's weather steadily South over the UK as pressure builds strongly to the North and the offending inclement Low slides SW then South over France with an Easterly flow blowing over England and Wales still with scattered showers. The run ends with the slow improvement continuing with any remaining showers restricted to the SE while East coastal counties stay rather chilly with an onshore breeze. Some warm sunny spells would develop in the North and West. In Summary tonight there are slender signs of improvement, notably from GFS and it's Ensembles as warmer conditions are well supported with time. There is still a lot of room for improvement between the other models and ECM becomes notably unpleasant next weekend before pressure builds down from the North in the second week with more promising synoptics developing as the run ends. It's too early to say whether tonight's embryonic improvements are likely to be sustained and expanded upon but there is definitely room for some optimism tonight as we move towards the end of the month.

Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday May 12th 2013. All models continue to show a cool and showery week to become as Low pressure slips down over the Uk through the week to become a shallow Low complex near Southern and Eastern Britain by the weekend. This will mean showers and longer spells of rain at times with some drier and brighter interludes between times. It will stay rather cool in the rain and showers but might not feel too bad in the sunnier interludes. GFS then takes us through next weekend and beyond with little overall change as Low pressure remains in control coming down from the NW or settled over the UK with further showers or rain. However, later in the run there is evidence of the Azores ridge extending across Southern areas restricting more unsettled conditions to the far North while the South become dry, bright and warmer by the end of the period. The GFS Ensembles does show a gentle rise in uppers this morning over the next few week. However, they are hardly indicative of high summer and will encourage things to feel more normal for the time of year in among the outbreaks of rain and showers still evident throughout, lessening somewhat later. The operational was a cold outlier in the North for a while. The Jet Profile remains the same today with a sharp troughing of the flow over the UK next week while the flow over the Atlantic largely disintegrates next weekend. UKMO today keeps Low pressure over the UK next weekend, albeit in a slack format. This would deliver further showers and outbreaks of rain across the UK from time to time with some drier and brighter interludes too with light winds trending from the North. GEM today also keeps the unsettled theme going through the duration this morning with further pulses of Low pressure energy moving down from the NW periodically maintaining the cool and unsettled theme. however, towards the end of the run there is a push of energy from the Azores High which could dampen down the showers from the NW by Day 10. NAVGEM is not quite a s good as last night's 12z run maintaining an unstable and cool NW feed over the UK with occasional showers or rain throughout. ECM today looks like holding the unsettled theme throughout the extended part of it's run with Low pressure either over or close to the UK with continuing bands of rain or thundery showers encircling the UK. Temperatures will be held to near normal values or slightly below in the rainfall. In Summary today there is little to get excited about yet again. There are a few suggestions in deep FI that High pressure from the Azores might ridge towards Britain, hinted at as well from GEM and it's from here that I feel is the most likely way we eventually leave this pattern. However, I feel patience is going to have to be needed as it looks more likely that the weather remains unsettled and cool with Low pressure from the NW continuing to feed into the UK. There will be some drier and brighter spells in between the rain and in these it will probably feel OK. ECM looks a bit of a horror show this morning and gets the 'booby' prize from me while GFS is the best though it's improvements are still a long way out into 'neverland'.

Quite true but there is still a noticeable trough evident over the UK from the cold uppers troughed down over the UK indicated by the colour profile. Plenty of showers would still be frequent and heavy over the UK with the High pressure still miles away averaged sitting over the Azores.

Hi folks. Here is tonight's review of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Saturday May 11th 2013. All models look depressingly similar over the period of next week with Low pressure gently moving South over the UK over several days to arrive near to Southern Britain late in the week where most models prove it very reluctant to move away thereon. It means a spell of rain over the coming days along with gusty West winds before an unusually cool and showery Westerly flow arrives for all on Monday with heavy showers and thunderstorms in abundance over the UK throughout the course of next week's working week. With Low pressure over the UK some places will see longer periods of thundery rain too but in among all the gloom there will be a few short not to be relied upon sunny spells when it will feel reasonably pleasant. It may be Mid May but some prone areas may see showers fall as snow over the hills and frost at night is a distinct possibility in notorious frost hollows through the week. GFS then takes us into next weekend trying to rescue the UK from the continuing cold trough over the UK and partly succeeds for a time as a weak ridge dampens down the showers although temperatures remain remarkably chilly for this time in May. However, it is only a partial and temporary respite as Low pressure from the NW is back on the scene by the end of the run with a return to heavy showers and storms and temperatures no better than average. The GFS Ensembles show the pattern as before with cool and showery conditions over the UK for the foreseeable future with disappointing temperatures throughout. The operational was a cold outlier in the drier phase described above, thankfully. The Jet Stream shows the UK entering a very unusually deep cold pool trough with the Jet buckling South then North west and East of the UK respectively over the coming week. UKMO shows little sign of let up late next week with showery rain and cool conditions maintained from the slack Low pressure areas maintained over and to the South of the UK. GEM is as depressing as the rest with Low pressure not releasing it's grip at all with Low pressure spiralling around over all of the UK with rain or showers at times. NAVGEM is the Gem in the pack tonight as it builds a ridge NE from the Azores High later next week and beyond with drier weather with longer sunny spells and relatively few if any showers by the end of next weekend. ECM tonight shows little mercy tonight with winds from between West and North for much of the outputs course. With Low pressure to the East and disturbances running SE in the flow we can forget any heat or warm sunshine as cool NW winds propel showers or outbreaks of rain SE at times with just the briefest sunny intervals. In Summary there is little change in the general theme tonight and just differences on specifics in synoptics. NAVGEM though does throw a lifeline in an overall mundane set of models. With the winds shown repeatedly between the models favouring the direction between North and West temperatures will never be very inspiring. The best advice is to enjoy the bright and sunny intervals between the all too frequent showers and hope for better models runs tomorrow.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 11th 2013. All models show a cool and changeable weekend with sunny spells and outbreaks of rain and showrs moving Eastwards across the UK periodically. It will be generally on the cool side. Some of the showers will be heavy especially towards the East today. The best of the dry weather will be in the West later today and tonight and in the East tomorrow. Through the early days of next week a new Low pressure drifts down from the NW with further rain and showers for all with a more prolonged spell of rain likely in the SE by midweek while some of the showers elsewhere may be heavy and thundery. GFS then shows towards the end of the week the winds change to a NE feed as the Low pressure sink away to the SE with cool and cloudy weather with occasional rain or showers occurring for all areas at times. This weather extends through the weekend too with winds backing Northerly then NW and eventually back to Westerly through FI around a deep Low to the NW of Britain. It would become somewhat less cool in a Westerly breeze but changeable weather would be maintained though the South might become drier and less cold for a time before the whole Low pressure area slides back Douth with an Easterly unsettled feed setting up again with a High pressure block to the North keeping Northern areas drier then. The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of the cool and unsettled spell through the two weeks with suppressed temperatures and spells of rain and showers in just broef drier and bright interludes. The Jet Stream flow shows the split flow continuing for a time with the northern arm extending South of the British Isles towards Southern Europe with the Western end of the Northern arm then weakening and dissolving leaving just a portion of the flow remaining near Spain and North Africa later next week and weekend. UKMO today shows slack Low pressure over and near to the SE and NW of the UK with unsettled conditions continuing with rain or showers at times and quite cool conditions too outside of any sunshine. GEM today shows a very unsettled end to the week and weekend too as Low pressure refuses to give ground once it sinks over the UK through the week and is reinforced by a new centre close to the North over next weekend keeping the showery and unsettled theme going. NAVGEM continues to show the Low sinking South of the UK later next week with an Easterly or NE flow developing with the rain and showers concentrating more towards the South by next weekend with longer drier if cool spells in the North with some sunshine. ECM finally maintains it's cool and unsettled feel still today with Low pressure never far away from UK over the next week to 10 days with rain and showers for all areas in cyclonic windflow patterns. Temperatures would often be suppressed but it could feel OK in any sunshine. Towards the end of the run the Lo centres drift to the East setting up a cool Northerly with showers though pressure is building slowly in from the NW In Summary today the weather will remain often cool and showery over the next 10-14 days as a UK trough continues to be the form horse over the period. As always in slack low pressure some areas will see some lengthy dry and bright spells and wonder what all the fuss is about while others see more than their share of often heavy and persistent showers or more prolonged rain. However, nowhere would be guaranteed to stay dry for too long under such synoptics with the impression from the distant output that we may remain in this rut for a while beyond the end of the output range this morning. Footnote: For those wanting to view my forecast pages within my website today will notice they are not updated this morning. My web Host appears to be down across their entire website this morning meaning I can't update so sorry for that. Access to the site and the Live portions of the site are all updating ing fine though. Hopefully will be OK for this evening though.

Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 10th 2013. All models show the weekend as a cool and unsettled one with a window of fine weather through Saturday Night and Sunday moving West to East across the UK. There will be showers or spells of rain outside of this window with a brisk Westerly breeze. Through next week all models show Low pressure sinking down over the UK with further spells of rain or heavy showers at times with just the briefest of drier and brighter spells when it will feel pleasant enough but the general theme will be towards cool weather still. GFS then shows the pressure gradients over the UK slackening late next week though still under relatively Low pressure with heavy showers and sunny intervals the order of events. Through FI tonight the pattern remains locked with Low pressure slipping down over the Uk from the NW and then becoming slow moving maintaining big showers and sunny intervals, in which it will continue to feel OK. Some of the rain will be very heavy though due to the fact that the showers will often be slow moving. The GFS Ensembles are very uninspiring tonight with the South seeing the more of the precipitation than the North at times, indicative of Lower pressure close to the South on occasion. There are strong signals that temperatures will remain suppressed for the duration of the output. The Jet Stream remains split with the Northern arm currently moving East towards the UK before sinking sharply South then North to the West and East of the UK respectively setting the UK up under a deep trough next week. UKMO tonight shows the UK engulfed in a upper atmosphere pool of cold air with Low pressure close to the SE. There would be widespread heavy showers and possible thunderstorms in a slack Northerly drift with sunshine quite limited. GEM shows a very disturbed pattern tonight with Low pressure repeatedly moving down from the NW and settling over the UK with wind, rain and showers all too frequent features of weather over the UK through the next 10 days as well as temperatures staying near or somewhat below what we would like to expect at this time of year. NAVGEM is a little more optimistic building a ridge NE from the Azores High later next week damping the rain and showers down with longer drier spells with temperatures more respectable in any lengthier sunshine. ECM tonight shows a very disturbed picture yet again with next weeks Low pressure slipping South over the UK filling as it goes before it engages with an opposing air mass over Europe and deepens rapidly again in the Western English Channel late next week. Rain and showers through the week will be heavy and prolonged with just brief drier and brighter spells in places. Through next weekend Low pressure remains the driving force in a slacker form with further rain or heavy showers scattered about for all. In Summary it's the same unsettled picture tonight with only NAVGEM showing any sort of improvement that would be felt at the surface. Rain or showers are the order of the dominating events of the next 10-14 days as the UK remains the settling and breeding ground for Low pressure for the immediate future with temperatures remaining generally suppressed.

Studying the charts as I do I can categorically say that the Jet Profile, although to the South again this year with Northern blocking is somewhat different this year to last. The Jet is higher over the Atlantic before sinking South to Southern latitudes just West of the UK. This enables the Azores High a better chance of ridging in on occasion which was hinted at within the 00zs this morning and I expect it to be repeated in the runs to come. This of course doesn't negate the risk of the Summer being cool and wet but it does give a greater chance that the unsettled conditions being punctuated by more settled conditions as the Azores High ridges NE. It's because of this that I have stated in my 'Summer Predictions Forecast' over on my website that this Summer will almost certainly be less wet and cool than last year's. See you later for the 12zs.

My stab at Summer 2013 can be seen over on my website until I get time to paste it across but it could make for interesting reading as I don't think it will be as wet or cool as last year. I have also left my Spring Seasonal Forecast up for people to see how I faired. Not a total disaster I feel.

Hi folks. Here is this morning's breeze through the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 10th 2013. All models show a unsettled weekend to come as an unstable Westerly flow continues to blow across the UK. With troughs embedded in the flow there will be more extensive rainfall at times in among the otherwise showery spells. However, it won't be all gloom and doom as there could be some sunshine at times too, especially towards the East and SE. It will remain breezy with temperatures close to normal or a little below in general. Through the early days of next week all models continue to programme another Low pressure to sink South over the UK maintaining the showery and changeable theme across the UK in cyclonic variable winds. GFS shows the Lows to move away to the SE late in the week with a showery trough left over the UK for a time. However, this morning shows a ridge from the Azores High becoming close to Southern Britain next weekend with the next Low pressure area held more to the NW with the attached rainfall reserved for these areas while the South, though not settled will see longer drier, brighter and warmer spells by then. Through the rest of FI the weather becomes warmer everywhere with a lot of dry weather for a time away from the far NW. However, as pressure become lower and slack at the end of the run the warmth would generate some heavy showers or thunderstorms in places in conditions that would turn rather humid. The GFS Ensembles unfortunately show the operational as a lone species in the warm and humid part of it's output so can largely be disregarded within the main scheme of things as the more likely outcome from the rest of the pack looks like continued average uppers with rain and showers at times. The Jet Stream maintains something of a split flow for several more days with the Northern arm moving East across the UK. The deeper we move into next week shows the Northern arm to turn South across the Atlantic and join with the Southern arm in it's path East across Southern Europe leaving the UK and NW Europe in a cold pool of air. UKMO today is resolute in dropping Low pressure down over the UK through the middle of next week and away to the SE leaving a slack and showery NE flow across the UK by next Thursday. Some heavy rain and showers can be expected from this set up for all at times and it might not feel very warm outside of any sunshine. GEM shows a very similar scenario with the caveat that Low pressure is held closer to the UK in it's later stages of the run maintaining the threat of more prolonged rainfall at times in among the showers. Some brief drier and brighter interludes would occur at times almost anywhere. NAVGEM shows a similar evolution to GFS with the first Low moving to the SE next week with something of a ridge from the Azores High slowing or blocking the passage SE of the next Low as it ridges NE across the South giving a window of perhaps drier conditions late next week, especially in the South. ECM too shows this type of scenario with the showers becoming more scattered though still possibly heavy as we move through the end of next week and weekend. In Summary there is still not too much cheer from the outputs this morning if it's warm and settled weather your after. However, there is a trend shared between some of the models that a ridge from the Azores High may disect the belt of low pressure expected to stretch between the Meditteranean and NW Britain later next week. Where it's shown it's axis is shown to lie across the British Isles and will have the effect of damping down the shower activity and allowing some longer dry spells with some welcome sunshine. It has to be said though that such a prognosis is very tenuous at the moment and there is plenty of support still for as gloomy an outlook synoptically as yesterday. However, it is something to looks for in future runs and let's hope the trend grows further.

Hi everyone. Here is the evening digestion of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Thursday May 9th 2013. All models continue to paint a generally unstable spell of weather over the UK from Low pressure transferring NE away from the UK over the next 24 hours. Left behind will be an unstable WNW flow with embedded disturbances enhancing the occasional showers to something more organized at times as they pass West to East. A brief drier interlude is indicated over Saturday night and Sunday under the weakest of ridges moving through before renewed fronts and rain from Low pressure to the NW moves across late Sunday and early next week in maintained fresh and chilly Westerly winds. GFS then takes us through the middle of next week with the Low sinking SE over the UK and away to the South before the weekend. A spell of very showery weather with thunder a possibility looks likely before slow improvements move down from the NW under a slack ridge over the weekend. Though not killing showers off entirely and keeping things none too warm some good dry spells with some sunshine would be likely at times especially towards the West. Late in FI the progression of successive Low pressure areas drifting down from the NW continues at times though there will be increasingly longer dry spells occurring later as High pressure ridges edge towards SW Britain at times. The GFS Ensembles are still very uninspiring for this time in May with plenty of rainfall spikes shown from uppers that are never far from normal for most parts of the UK. Given the frequency of rainfall events temperatures at the surface will feel cool while conversely in the sunnier spells between the rain it may feel quite warm. The Jet Stream shows the flow to the South of the UK for the coming few days. It ridges North and then digs strongly South to the West of Britain all the way to North Africa next week before turning East across the Med. The UK and NW Europe remain locked in a deep trough. UKMO tonight shows a deep UK based trough filling slowly in the middle of next week with rain or showers at times in rather cool conditions overall but with some warm sunny spells between the thundery downpours and lighter breezes late in the week. GEM is very disturbed tonight with Low pressure circulating the UK throughout next week with showers or longer spells of rain for all areas on most days. NAVGEM also keeps the UK firmly under the control of Low pressure centred close to Northern Britain with an extensive trough South from it over the UK and NW Europe. As with GEM frequent heavy showers or more general sometimes thundery rain will be maintained over the UK. ECM tonight shows Low pressure moving down over the UK with thundery showers or more prolonged rain at times almost anywhere. At least the winds will become light as the pressure gradient becomes slack over the UK so in any sunnier breaks it will feel reasonably warm. Towards the end of the run it looks much like this morning's run with Low pressure ending up somewhere near Eastern England with cold and grey weather with rain and strong winds wrapped around the system. By Day 10 very little has changed with Low pressure all over NW Europe with rain and showers continuing for several more days to follow at least. In Summary tonight the output shows the weather remaining very unsettled with Low pressure in total domination of conditions over the UK. GFS does show some more acceptable weather interludes late in it's operational run but it is not widely supported by other members within the ensembles. There is very little else of note which suggests anything other than occasional sunny spells between the showers or rain with temperatures never exceeding normal values although in any sunnier spells it will feel quite warm given the time of year.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday May 9th 2013. All models show a familiar and distinctly unseasonal feel about them this morning as we look like we are staring down the barrel of a sustained unsettled spell this morning. The current deep Low pressure over Ireland will sweep Strong to Gale SW winds and heavy rain across the UK today with heavy showers following into the West later. By tomorrow the winds will be less strong and more from the West but still with plenty of showers rattling through on the breeze, especially later as a further showery front blows across the UK from the West. The weekend too looks cool and breezy with some showers for all but probably with a drier interlude in parts of the sheltered South on Sunday. GFS then takes us into next week with another deep Low pressure sinking South down over the UK from the North with a spell of strong winds and rain gradually being replaced by sunshine and showers again in the rather cool Westerly then cyclonic flow that follows. Then after a few days of less windy though still showery conditions the cycle repeats itself again through FI with yet more Low pressure to the NW spreading further unsettled weather across all areas gradually relaxing SE to a positions near the SE by the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show an unsettled and uninspiring set this morning with rain on most days with temperatures little better than normal and often somewhat below. The Jet Stream shows a NE flow across the South at present which weakens in the coming days as the main arm ridges High in the North Atlantic. Next week it turn sharply South then equally sharply back North to the East of the UK leaving the UK in a deep trough hence the unsettled weather shown by all the outputs. UKMO today has Low pressure well in control of the weather next week as it sinks South down the western side of the UK. There would be plenty of showers around but some brighter and drier interludes too, especially in the SE. There could well be some longer spells of potentially thundery rain near the Low centre. Winds are shown to be cyclonic light to moderate. GEM today continues to show it's version of events as very similar to the others dropping deep Low pressure down over the UK next week where it steadily fills in situ before being reinvigorated by reinforcements from the NW. So rain or showers would occur nationwide in this pattern with temperatures no better than normal. NAVGEM today shows Low pressure slipping South over the UK next week and away to the South later. However, it maintains a slack pressure gradient over the near continent and the UK with a slack Easterly wind with thundery showers or rain at times in temperatures recovering a little later. ECM finally is probably the worst of the lot if it's dry and fine weather your after as it sinks the Low down over the UK next week as the others show. However, it holds it in quite a deep format near SW England before it moves East and then North towards Eastern England as still a deep and wet feature with copious rainfall and cool conditions dominating in fresh cyclonic winds. With high pressure strong over Scandinavia and further Low pressure off the Southern tip of Greenland the UK looks like remaining the home turf for further Low pressure after day 10. In Summary today it remains a very unsettled and relatively cool set of outputs. In honesty they are so bad it's difficult to find anything to cling to in hopes of any new emerging trend. The only saving grace is that it is May and in any bright, sunny intervals between the showers and outbreaks of rain (and there will be some) it won't feel to bad but if it's a sustained dry and warm period that your after I would skip this morning's outputs and hope for improvements and a changed trend over the coming days.

Hi folks. Here is the review of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO< GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Wednesday May 8th 2013. All models show little overall change tonight so I will do a shorter version of the output and just highlight any differences or new trends as we go along. The pattern between now and Sunday sees little change as Low pressure moves NE across the North over the next 24 hours and is followed by a cool and showery WNW flow for all lasting through the weekend. GFS shows a slightly different evolution tonight as early as later next week as a ridge from a mid atlantic High reduces the shower activity over the UK with some sunny spells if rather chilly conditions. In far FI the model reverts to form with a deep UK trough delivering rain and showers to all again. The GFS Ensembles show that the operational though well supported for temperature through the mid phase was not with regard to precipitation indicating the ridge from the Atlantic High is unlikely to verify. The operational was a colder outlier in deeper FI. The Jet Stream shows a UK based trough in the flow later next week with a Southern arm continuing to domiante to the South. UKMO tonight shows little change from this morning with Low pressure sinking SE towards the UK at the beginning of next week maintaining the basically showery theme. GEM keeps Low pressure in the vicinity of the British Isles through next week with rain and showers scattered about for all in average at best temperatures. NAVGEM is depressingly similar with a Low pressure area sinking down over the UK next week with unsettled and sometimes wet weather for all in temperatures on the cool side of average. ECM tonight is as unsettled as this morning although there is a little more warmth around on the Eastern flank of the Low centred down to the SW later next week. There would be showers or rain at times for all and with the addition of warmth into the mix towards the end of the run the showers could be upgraded to thundery status in places later. In Summary the weather remains in an unsettled state as Low pressure drifts down from the NW next week. There are differences between the models on positioning of the Low pressure and a few moderations tonight on the effects of this over the UK in the upcoming period but the general message is still the same as much Northern blocking looks like keeping Low pressure close to UK shores for some conssiderable time to come.

Hi everyone. Here is the report taken from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Wednesday May 8th 2013. All models have seen the transfer to much cooler and unsettled conditions overnight. The trough bringing the change will move away NE today with the parent depression winding itself up near Ireland with strong to gale SW winds developing over Western and SW areas tonight and tomorrow. There will be some dry and bright conditions following the rain today with a few showers developing more widely after dark and becoming prolonged from the West tomorrow. By Friday the Low will fill slowly and move away to the NE leaving several days of showery West to NW winds with further troughs embedded enhancing the showers at times. A weak ridge over the South on Sunday could dampen the showers down somewhat over the South and SE for a time. GFS then takes us through next week with further showery and unsettled conditions as Low pressure drifts down over the UK from the NW. It maybe that Southern areas stay largely dry on Monday and Tuesday with more isolated showers. By the end of the week, weekend and through week 2 the pattern is well locked with a Southerly moving Jet over the Atlantic maintaining a deep trough over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain maintained in technically rather cool conditions, though that means in any sunshine it will feel reasonable enough for a time. The GFS Ensembles has all it's members more or less singing from the same hymn sheet again this morning with a period of sustained normal uppers delivering disappointing and cool conditions at the surface with showers or longer periods of rain at times for all. The Jet Stream continues to indicate the flow will be taking a Southerly course down over the Atlantic next week with the flow South of the UK around Spain this time next week. UKMO today shows Low pressure ambling slowly SE down towards the UK early next week maintaining Westerly winds and occasional rain and showers. It maybe with a slightly slacker flow over the South the first few days of next week in the South may not be too bad with just scattered showers and some warm sunny spells. GEM today shows the theme of the others in bringing Low pressure SE over the UK next week where it becomes complex and slow moving with rain and showers circulating around for all areas. NAVGEM sets up an Easterly flow by midweek as the Low pressure sinks South over Britain and away to the South leaving the UK in Easterly winds with further outbreaks of rain or showers but these becoming more restricted to the South with time. ECM today is still adamant in keeping Low pressure over or just off shore of our Kingdom with spells of rain or heavy showers for all. It maybe that as other models show the South may have a window of slightly less showery weather early in the week. Longer term ECM shows an excess of northern blocking with the Jet sent south as a result and the UK locked under cool Low pressure with potentially heavy rain at times. In Summary today there is little to be added to my previous reports as the synoptics have changed little over the last 24 hours. The only slight window is for the South on Monday and perhaps Tuesday too as the progression of the Low to the NW looks a little slower on some output, especially UKMO but the end result ends the same with a spell of unstable weather with rain at times and mediocre temperatures the most likely outcome from this morning's output. With the GFS Ensembles showing tight agreement on showery conditions through the period of the run this morning and given all the operational's appear fairly in unison it might be some while before we break out of this pattern.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday May 7th 2013. All models show Low pressure deepening to the SW of the UK and moving NNE towards Northern Ireland over the next 24 hours. A front will move NE across all areas apart from the far North of Scotland over the period. A band of heavy rain will sweep NE overnight reaching Eastern areas tomorrow, weakening as it does. Clearer, showery weather will follow with a strong and blustery SW wind. On Thursday the Low deepens further near Ireland and a secondary feature runs East over England and Wales with gales and heavy rain or showers the order of the day. Through the latter stages of the week and weekend all models show the low finally move away to the NE but leaving behind a brisk and cool WNW flow with showers and sunny intervals for most. GFS shows a very disturbed spell of weather next week as a Low pressure complex slips South over the UK to dominate the whole week's weather with showers or longer spells of rain throughout with hail and thunder locally as well as some short drier spells with a little sunshine. As we move deep into FI Low pressure does retract towards a position NW of the UK with occasional rain bearing troughs blowing through with rain mixed in with rather longer drier ad brighter conditions by the end of the run when it becomes warm and humid in the South and East. The GFS Ensembles show a tight cluster of members throughout the run tonight with all of them showing rather cool conditions with frequent and heavy showers the general theme. There seems little to choose between North to South with regard to precipitation with all areas at risk from some heavy rain at times. The Jet Stream tonight shows the flow moving NE towards the UK. In the following week the flow trends North over the Western Atlantic then South to the West of the UK to set up a Southerly position across Southern Europe. UKMO tonight shows a showery WNW flow over the weekend with some sunny spells in many places between the showers. It will feel rather cool in the blustery breeze. Through the beginning of next week the weather remains very showery as reinforcements in the shape of Low pressure from the NW arrives on Monday keeping the heavy shower risk going and maintaining unspectacular temperatures. GEM tonight shows a deep UK trough setting up next week with plentiful rain and heavy showers likely for all in temperatures close to normal at best and sometimes somewhat below. NAVGEM shows very little change from the other output except that it holds up the second Low pressure sinking down from the North a little longer consequently reducing the shower risk in the South on Sunday and Monday of next week. ECM shows a very showery picture tonight with Low pressure moving SE towards Western Britain early next week replacing the showery WNW flow this weekend. Spells of rain interspersed with heavy showers in rather cool conditions look likely for the early and middle portions of next week and as the Low slips further South ending near the SW approaches it sets up a potentially very wet spell late next week with humid and moist air to the East engaging with the unstable air aloft. In Summary it's the same story as this morning's output with little optimism towards warm and sunny weather from any model tonight as the deep trough anchors near the UK. This means that all areas are at risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms. There will be some dry and bright spells too and given it is now May any sunshine will feel very warm. However, this will help fuel the atmosphere further, especially if as ECM suggests some warm and humid air mixes with our cold pool aloft endorsing the risk of copious rainfall in places later, most likely in the South.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday May 7th 2013. All models show a change to more unsettled weather on the way with today being the last day of the current warmth and sunshine across England and Wales. Low pressure is forming down to the SW and will become a deep Low complex close to NW Britain by later tomorrow sweeping strong winds and rain followed by showers to all areas. Temperatures will then be much lower than recently with a cool feel to things generally. After tomorrow the weather will be a typical Spring mix of sunshine and well spaced April showers. Parts of the South and East could still have a reasonable amount of dry weather but less likely in the NW. When the showers do come along they could well be heavy and accompanied by hail and thunder locally. It's not until Sunday when a brief window of 24-48hrs of less showery weather looks possible over the South as a transient ridge of High pressure moves across from the West. GFS then shows a very showery week next week as Low pressure moves South over the UK, close to SW England by midweek with heavy showers or longer spells of rain likely for all by then. There is little cheer through FI with Low pressure ambling around the UK in no particular hurry to either fill or move away maintaining the heavy shower risk but with some warm sunshine between the showers in what will otherwise be a rather cool spell of weather. The GFS Ensembles show a generally showery pattern through the two weeks with very little spread of note between the members. There are no indications of anything as warm as currently through the coming two weeks though by the sheer nature of showery conditions there will be some places that fair rather better than others, maintaining drier conditions more while other have some heavy if brief rainfall events. The Jet Stream is not becoming our friend again over the next few weeks with a split flow endorsing a UK based trough next week with the Southern portion dragging ever lower pressure down to low latitudes and keeping the UK on the colder side of the seasonal warmth. UKMO today shows a blustery and showery weather type over the UK over the weekend with a drier phase on Monday under a weak ridge before renewed Low pressure extends down into the UK from the NW by midweek. GEM today shows Low pressure slipping South over Ireland through the week and eventually to the South of the UK with rather cloudy and showery weather for many. Some longer spells of rain are also likely with the East seeing the best of any drier and sunnier breaks between the rain. NAVGEM shows a showery WNW flow at the weekend with a deep Low sinking South to cover the North Sea and Northern Britain by midweek next week. This means heavy showers and ever decreasing sunny intervals as we move through the week with generally cool and breezy conditions. ECM finally continues the gloom though conditions in the SE may not be too bad for a day or two early in the week. However, Low pressure is shown to migrate South close to the West of Britain with rain or showers here. As the cool uppers then engage warmer uppers to the South of the UK by midweek next week, deeper Low pressure forms close to the SW spilling rain or showers North across the UK to most areas. It may become somewhat warmer and more humid should this pattern develop. In Summary there is little cheer for those of us looking for a continuation of the current early summer type weather. Low pressure is set to return tomorrow and keep a showery and blustery Westerly flow with temperatures down 5-6 degrees on recent daytime values. There will be some dry weather to be had but not guaranteed as there will also be showers blown through on the breeze, heavy and thundery at times. Through next week the pattern is maintained as Low pressure looks set by all models to slip South over or near to the British Isles with rain and showers continuing for all at times. Coming from the North temperatures will never be overly warm but in any interludes of brightness and lighter winds it will feel pleasant enough. The worrying thing that I can see this morning is the refusal of this pattern to lift out of the British Isles anytime soon once it sets in with pressure becoming High to the North (yet again) and a split Jet flow with the Southern arm encouraging low pressure to sink South to Southern latitudes. It seems a familiar and repetitive pattern of synoptics over the British Isles in recent years.

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the midday outlook supplied by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 6th 2013. All models are still supportive of a change to a windy and cooler spell with a period of rain followed by heavy showers from later tomorrow onward. The warm temperatures of today and for a time in the East tomorrow will not be repeated for some time as Westerly winds ensure conditions remain much cooler from Wednesday. There is more reluctance tonight to lift the UK out of the showery spell until later in the weekend as a further showery trough caught up in the West flow passes through late Friday and Saturday, though Sunday does hold a reasonable chance of being drier and brighter as a ridge builds somewhat over the South. GFS then brings the UK under a further sustained unsettled spell as Low pressure slips SE down across the British Isles with showers or longer spells of rain developing widely through the week in rather cool conditions. It's not until the final frame of the run when this Low pressure complex fills up completely with a ridge replacing it across the South. The GFS Ensembles show good agreement with quite a tight spread of members that favour a rather cool or normal at best set of conditions. In essence this means rather cool and showery period as the most likely option, given that precipitation spikes are commonplace later in the run. The Jet Stream is maintained as a split flow for the majority of time over the next week to 10 days. For a short while at the weekend the Northern arm dies as the Southern arm ridges North to the UK. However, it soon reverts back South as the Northern arm strengthens across the Atlantic and over Southern Britain in a week or so. UKMO tonight shows a showery Saturday and a less showery Sunday. A weak ridge is shown close to Southern England but an upper trough will maintain the risk of showers, especially in the North and inland over England through the daytime. Signs are that on the 144hr chart the following days will see Low pressure and unsettled conditions move down from the NW. GEM shows a slower transgression towards next week's unsettled spell as the WNW flow at the weekend lasts rather longer gradually being replaced by less windy weather under slack pressure with a gradual trend towards more unsettled weather as we move deeper into next week. NAVGEM shows a showery period from a Westerly flow at the weekend with most of the showers in the North before they gradually extend to other areas as we move into next week as Low pressure drifts down into Scotland from the North. ECM tonight has a very showery picture across the UK with the weekend seeing the best of any drier spells between the showers over Southern and Eastern Britain. As we move into next week Low pressure slips down from the NW enhancing the showers in all areas with just brief sunny intervals between times and rather cool temperatures maintained. At the end of the run the showery picture is maintained with warmer air knocking on the door of the East from Europe most likely accompanied by much sea mist and haar. In Summary the weather looks rather disturbed tonight. The Azores and European High's that Southern areas have enjoyed of late looks like slipping further away from our shores and becoming less influential with Low pressure slipping down over the UK next week with the accompanying showers and outbreaks of rain (with hail and thunder a possibility) becoming the most likely weather type. Once this pattern of Low pressure sets in it may well become slow moving over the UK as GFS illustrates clearly tonight. If there are straws to clutch it's GEM which holds a faintly lit candle as it is more reluctant or delays sending Low pressure down from the North over the UK next week.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 6th 2013. All models show a slack Southerly flow around High pressure to the East of the UK bringing warm and dry conditions North across the UK for today and some of tomorrow. Pressure is falling to the West with a developing Low moving NE to become a deep Low complex near or over NW Britain by midweek. The strong to gale SW winds on it's Southern flank sweep the warm air away by Wednesday and along with associated troughs moving NE in the flow heavy rain and showers would reach all areas by midweek. Clearer weather will return by the end of the week as the Low is shown to move away to the NE leaving a cool WNW flow with scattered showers largely in the North. GFS then shows the weekend with cool NW winds over the UK with showers, chiefly in the North and East while the South and West see the best of the dry and bright weather in the cool winds. Next week then shows Low pressure slipping SE over the UK with unsettled weather returning to all areas in the form of showers or longer spells of rain. Late in FI the weather looks like remaining cool with potential for showers on most days and cool breezes blowing from between West and North. The GFS Ensembles show a period of sustained normality in 850 upper temperatures and under these synoptic patterns this would be reflected at the surface too. Unsettled weather looks likely to develop in the latter half of the run to follow this week's changeable pattern. The Jet Stream is blowing on a split flow with the Northern arm looking like continuing to advect East close to Scotland with the Southern arm well South over Southern Europe. UKMO today is showing a new Low pressure up to the North at the weekend spreading another spell of wind and rain East across the UK followed by Westerly fresh breezes and showers later. It would feel rather cool generally. GEM shows a deep Low sliding slowly SSE across the UK in the latter stages of it's run with a very showery spell likely with hail and thunder likely by day and brief sunny intervals. It too shows a generally cool pattern of temperatures. NAVGEM this morning shows West to NW winds and a sunshine and shower mix at the weekend with only a few showers in the South. At the close of it's run at 180hrs though it shows the embryonic signs of following it's partner models in delivering Low pressure sliding down from the NW maintaining or exacerbating the showery and cool theme. ECM today is poor for those looking for sustained dry and warm weather as it too has low pressure slipping South over the UK next week. A window of fine weather is likely in the South at the weekend but next week would become increasingly cloudy, showery and cool as an Easterly wind picks up, this especially in the North while the heaviest showers transfer towards the South later. There is fairly good agreement now on the pattern of events over the coming 10-14 days. We look destined for an unsettled and rather cool spell from Wednesday on with rain or showers to see out this week displacing the current warm and sunny weather over England and Wales. After a window of fair weather in the South at the weekend, next week looks very showery over the UK with nearly all models showing Low pressure close to or over the UK. With winds possibly settling Easterly late in the perod and Low pressure in control Eastern coasts would become distinctly chilly while the heaviest rain or showers transfer their way more towards the South.