Gibby

Yes your right it isn't that bad until late on. I was really meaning the end few days which reminded me of a late September early October pattern. However, on looking again I think my comments for the end of the ECM operational run were justified as the 192hr and 240hr chart look nothing better than horrific for mid June.

Good evening. Here is the report taken from the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 8th 2013.All models show High pressure over the North of the UK with a chilly NE wind pulling an awful lot of low cloud, already over some Eastern areas across many areas overnight away from the far West. With the NE wind persisting over Southern Britain, tomorrow will be cooler than today with a lot of cloud, taking a lot of time to clear, especially from Eastern parts. Some sunshine will break through for many through the day apart from the North Sea coast itself. Monday too will see the ridge holding and with the NE wind across the South finally dying away it could be a warmer day with less low cloud persistence. On Tuesday all models show the High giving way slowly with a Southerly flow developing as pressure falls to the NW with cloud and rain spreading slowly East on Tuesday and followed by more showery conditions for Wednesday.GFS then shows a NW/SE split for a time with dry and bright conditions returning for a time with the NW seeing more rain at times. Early the following week a trough crosses East over the UK returning a spell of rain to all before a cooler and more changeable spell of weather develops over the UK with the majority of rain reserved for the North while Southern areas see a lot of dry if not overly warm weather in a NW breeze. Late in the run unsettled conditions close the run for all.The GFS Ensembles show a return to very average uppers fairly soon. After an agreed upon spell of rain midweek things trend rather drier again later though there will continue to be at least a little rain for most from time to time.The Jet Stream is shown to gain momentum through next week as it crosses the Atlantic towards the British Isles and away towards Scandinavia creating more mobility to Low pressure systems moving East or NE to the NW of the British Isles with time.UKMO tonight shows a SW flow over the UK with a ridge slowly building close to the South next Friday. The NW may see some occasional rain but the South would more likely become largely dry with all areas experiencing normal temperatures with winds mostly from the West or SW.GEM shows a changeable pattern developing once the weather breaks on Tuesday with some dry and bright intervals interspersed by outbreaks of rain or showers and average temperatures. The rain will be most prolific in the North while the best of the drier brighter spells will be towards Southern parts.NAVGEM tonight shows a NW/SE split in its later stages with fine and dry weather likely at times towards the SE with rain at times in the NW with temperatures close to average for most.ECM tonight looks very similar to UKMO at Day 6 with a ridge close to the South while the NW is affected by Atlantic winds with rain at times from passing troughs. Later in the run things get decidedly unseasonal for a time as a deep Low whisks it's way NE towards and then North away from the UK bringing rain and gales to SW areas for a time along with heavy rain for many with further Low pressure moving in to follow maintaining the almost Autumnal theme it shows tonight..In Summary the weather looks like becoming more changeable from the midweek to come onward. Atlantic depressions look to be taking at least some control of the UK weather, especially but not exclusively for NW Britain. There will be rain at times for all but with brief drier and brighter weather too especially in the South. Temperatures generally look like settling close to average. We must hope that ECM tonight is a wet and wild outlier in all senses of the words and that if we are to see a change then it doesn't get any worse than most of the other output shows tonight.

Good morning. Here is the morning report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday June 8th 2013.All models show an area of weak High pressure ridging down over the United Kingdom with an Easterly flow over the South. This pattern will hold position for another two to three days with fine conditions for many with a tendency for low cloud from the North Sea to increase over Eastern and Central regions from tonight. This should clear from all but the North Sea Coast itself by afternoon of both tomorrow and Monday leaving some afternoon warm and sunny spells. By Tuesday Low pressure will be approaching the NW sending a trough steadily East into the West of the UK on Tuesday with a band of rain moving through to be followed by fresher and cooler conditions in a Westerly breeze as we move through Wednesday when bright weather with a few scattered showers is likely.GFS then shows later next week with a ridge of High pressure over Southern Britain with dry and bright conditions here to end the week while Northern areas remain more changeable in an Atlantic influence. Through FI today a spell of windy and unsettled conditions develop for all with rain or showers at times before brighter and drier weather creeps back over from the West late in the run with rainfall becoming more restricted towards the NW by the end of the run when the South looks like becoming dry and warmer.The GFS Ensembles show average conditions developing from early next week. Although all areas are shown to have rain for a time things become rather drier in the South through the second week with 850's trending a little above normal and what would most likely be a light SW flow.The Jet Stream is strengthening over the Atlantic over the coming days and moving across the UK next week towards Northern Europe indicative of Atlantic depressions moving East to the north of the UK with time.UKMO today shows high pressure re-establishing itself over the UK next Friday with plenty of dry and reasonably warm and sunny conditions returning following the midweek rainfall.GEM is more changeable in it's later stages with a Westerly flow with rain at times in the North with the best of the dry, bright and warm conditions in between occasional rain likely in the South.NAVGEM is very similar with the worst of the unsettled and wet conditions likely in the NW later next week and weekend with the South closest to High pressure to the South seeing more in the way of dry and bright if rather cloudy conditions.ECM today also shows things improving, albeit briefly later next week though with rather humid air developing and a further trough moving slowly NE an area of thundery rain could affect parts of Britain, perhaps heavy in the SE for a time. Later in the run a North/South split develops here too with some fine and warm conditions developing in the South while the North sees breezier Westerly winds and rain at times as Low pressure crosses East to the North.In Summary today it looks like a brief unsettled spell for all is likely midweek before things improve again, especially in the South from the end of next week and the weekend. With winds looking like settling into a Westerly weather type the best of the weather looks like taking up more traditional fayre in a North/South split with the best of the dry, warm and bright weather likely over the South and East while the more unsettled but by no means washout conditions reserved for more Northern and Western areas of the UK.

Hi folks. Here is the report from the midday outlooks from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday June 7th 2013.All models continue to model the UK under the influence of a ridge of High pressure across Northern Britain from now until the early parts of next week. The current thundery disturbance over Southern Britain will decay away after tonight. Easterly winds may carry misty low cloud in from the East overnight and in the mornings. There will be some sunny warm afternoons for all though.GFS shows that by Tuesday a strengthening Southerly wind will carry a rain bearing trough slowly East across Britain not reaching the East until midweek. Through the rest of the week a NW/SE split looks likely with further outbreaks of rain at times in the NW while the sunniest and warmest conditions look likely for the SE of Britain. Through FI tonight the best weather remains in the South with a predominance of dry and warm weather with sunny spells while the North sees the biggest risk of rain at times though even here a fair amount of dry weather would be likely from these charts.The GFS Ensembles show a big improvement tonight with the unsettled interlude being a very brief one before Southern Britain in particular return to warm and largely dry conditions with some warm sunshine.The Jet Stream shows a change in flow as we move into next week with a NE moving flow over the Atlantic and across the UK to Scandinavia in a weeks time.UKMO tonight shows a brief spell of rain towards the middle of the week before High pressure builds across Southern Britain by next Thursday with fine and increasingly warm conditions returning from then on.GEM tonight too shows a build of pressure behind the brief rainy interlude in the middle of next week. The High over Southern Britain late next week though moves away East and declines as a new low pressure brings a further surge of unsettled conditions by the end of the run.NAVGEM doesn't show the significant build of pressure later next week with Low pressure inching towards SW Britain at the end of the run with further rain at times.ECM finally shows a similar trend with a band of rain giving way to drier and brighter conditions in light winds once the rain has passed on Thursday. The rest of the run shows a more unsettled trend with small disturbances crossing East over southern Britain around a parent depression to the North. Temperatures will be close to average in winds mostly from the West. The final day though does show a strong build of pressure likely later with warmer and sunnier conditions shortly following term of the run.In Summary tonight conditions for prospects from midweek next week continue to improve with High pressure developing over or to the South of the UK from most models with NAVGEM and ECM maintaining a more unsettled feel as we move through next weekend. Putting it all together though the overall prospects look fairly reasonable and a mile better than last year this time with some warm and sunny weather likely at times with just short unsettled interludes.

One of these intense downpours is right in the line of my webcam image at the moment with rumbling thunder and shafts of precipitation from the cloud base. an unexpected drama to the weather here today. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Webcam-Image-Movie(2769633).htm

Good morning. Here is the report from the midnight output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday June 7th 2013.All models support a period of fine and largely sunny weather over the UK for another 4-5 days as a weak ridge holds across the UK. A weak thundery disturbance is affecting my area today with the risk of a shower or thunderstorm later but this should move away West tonight. A few lighter showers could develop over the hills of the North and low cloud and mist will be a feature overnight moving in from the North Sea to affect Central and Eastern Counties through the early part of each day and it will generally become a little cooler and fresher.GFS then shows a trough crossing East towards midweek with a windy spell for the NW while the SE could see the rain turn thundery by Thursday. A ridge then crosses slowly East over next weekend giving a dry and brighter spell before cloud and rain affect NW areas later. Through FI the changeable pattern of weather persists with some rain or showers for all at times but with some good spells of dry and bright weather in between when on the operational it is shown to become very warm in the South from the 17th to the 20th. With pressure systems rolling in from the West outside of this period temperatures will be close to average for the most part and winds will predominate from between SW and NW.The GFS Ensembles show a different slant on the distribution of precipitation than recently with all areas seeing some rain soon after 11th. The South then sees a trend towards drier conditions while Northern locations remain more at risk of further rain. Uppers fall back towards average levels soon and leaving aside the very warm outlier stage of the operational later on most members maintain an average position through the run.The Jet Stream currently shows a weak arm to the NW decaying with a Meditteranean arm gradually doing so too. Later next week the flow settles stronger across the Atlantic and over the UK towards Scandinavia.UKMO shows a trough crossing slowly East across the UK towards the middle of next week with some rain, perhaps thundery for most. thereafter a change to cooler and fresher weather in a westerly breeze with scattered showers look likely for a day or so.GEM today shows a similar evolution through the midweek days of next week with a change to more changeable conditions thereafter with some rain at times but some drier spells too in temperatures returning to average levels.NAVGEM too shows a more changeable theme after a spell of rain midweek as pressure remains weakly low over the UK with rain at times and average temperatures.ECM finally shows a change to more unsettled conditions with rain at times as the Atlantic strengthens it's strangle hold over the UK. There would be some dry and bright spells behind the midweek rain, especially in the SE close to a ridge for a time before it becomes breezy and unsettled in association with Low pressure crossing East close to the North with troughs spreading cloud and rain followed by showers West to East over the UK next weekend in temperatures by then no better than average.In Summary last night's ECM operational which was not supported in it's ensembles was a wild card run and, has reverted to form this morning with a changeable and unsettled pattern developing from midweek. This is shared by most of the other output too but I feel that the worst of any unsettled weather will be more prevalent for the North and West while the South and East could see some good drier interludes between the rain bands when it could feel quite warm. However, it looks a little more likely this morning that the pleasant days of end to end blue skies some areas have experienced of late will be a thing of the past for the time being after the middle of next week.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Thursday June 6th 2013.All models show a continuation of set fair conditions over the UK as High pressure maintains it's hold over the UK fending off the majority of the weak frontal systems around the Southern and later Western periphery of the High for a good while yet. There will be shed loads of sunshine for many Western areas with very little cloud with the exception of tomorrow over the SW where a few showers are possible. Central and Eastern regions remain at risk of rather slow starts to each day as low cloud spills West in the ENE flow. It's not until the beginning of next week that slow changes look like developing.GFS tonight shows Low pressure edging slowly East across the UK through the week but it's progress is painfully slow and takes until it receives a shove from a thundery disturbance moving North soon after midweek before the thundery rain in the West becomes more extensive later in the week. Once passed a cooler and fresher spell develops with rain at times from troughs moving slowly East across the UK from the West. Late in FI the weather settles down again as a new High feeds in from the West with fine sunny and warm conditions returning late in the run.The GFS Ensembles show the same pattern as of late with any significant rain now not shown until after the 11th. After the next 4-5 days of comfortably warm and sunny weather for many uppers fall back to average levels thereon with no sign of any significant heatwave or cool spell.The Jet Stream shows the flow moving South over the coming days to settle in an undulating motion across the Atlantic and NE across the UK to Scandinavia next week.UKMO tonight shows Low pressure edging slowly into the UK through the early and middle portion of next week. A breezy Southerly flow develops which will feel warm in the bright conditions ahead of bands of thundery rain or showers slowly edging in from the West to reach Central districts by Wednesday.GEM tonight also shows deteriorating conditions but not until after midweek when a band of thundery rain crosses NE over the UK followed by a cooler and fresher Atlantic based synoptic pattern with Low pressure moving in close to the North by the end of the run with with rain or showers for all.NAVGEM maintains a slightly better pattern than the others later next week with less spread of rainfall across the UK away from the West. The South and East would eventually become dry and reasonably warm again as High pressure holds close by.ECM tonight shows a strengthening Southerly wind early next week especially in the Western half of the UK. In addition a trough will be moving slowly and steadily East across the UK reaching Central areas midweek with a spell of heavy and thundery rain in tow. This is then followed by clearer and fresher weather later in the week with sunny spells and mostly dry weather with no more than a few light showers in the NW though the rain may linger in the extreme East for a time. The end days of the run show a very warm setup developing (warmer than we have now) with High pressure building NE across much of the UK with fine and sunny, very warm conditions for all away from the far NW.In Summary it looks like the impact of the breakdown to more unsettled conditions is gradually becoming wittled away steadily. Although all models show a period of unsettled weather potential next week it looks increasingly unlikely it will be particularly noteworthy with the chance of a return to very warm and settled conditions shown by ECM as well as hinted at by other output tonight looking very possible after next week. ECM is a peach tonight with a stretch of high pressure at the end of it's run better than anything we've seen for a year or so and with the Jet stream way up in it's summer home to the NW this could produce a very lengthy dry and hot spell if verified.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday June 6th 2013.All models continue to show the fine weather continuing through the rest of the weekend and now the start of next week too as a slender High pressure ridge continues to fend off any attack from Low pressure into the extreme west and South of the UK. While temperatures may fall back a little over the weekend most places will continue to see fine and dry weather with sunny spells and just patchy low cloud near Eastern coasts at times and just a threat from an isolated shower or too over the Scottish mountains or extreme South late in the weekend.GFS then shows much of the working week with a very slow trend downhill of conditions, though even by Thursday many Eastern and Northern parts are still largely fine and bright with just scattered showers affecting more Southern and Western parts. By Friday a small Low develops near Southern England with more appreciable rainfall moving North across the UK followed by a change to more changeable conditions with rain at times and cooler conditions though not a rain-fest for anyone.The GFS Ensembles show a cooling trend from the 9th towards much more average uppers, translated to the surface too as plenty of rain options develop across Southern and Central areas particularly around mid month.The Jet Stream this morning is as before with the flow to the NW weakening away as a new surge of energy crosses the Atlantic towards France next week. The one difference this morning is that it turns NE across SE Britain later indicating a rise of pressure over SE Europe which could encourage a NW/SE split to develop in our weather later with the South and East eventually seeing the most of drier and warmer weather then felt over Europe.UKMO today shows Low pressure to the west of the UK struggling hard to move into the UK with the chance of rain only slowly making inroads into the west of the UK towards the middle of next week. With High pressure of sorts still not far to the East there would still be plenty of fine and at times sunny weather to be enjoyed here.GEM also shows a very slow progression towards more unsettled weather, this time more towards the NW extending slowly to other areas later. On this run the SW flow over the South would become a very warm and humid one with a hot plume grazing the SE late in the week which as the unsettled weather further West interacts with this could give rise to a thundery breakdown for a time across the SE over the weekend.NAVGEM too only shows a slow deterioration in conditions next week with Low pressure slowly becoming more influential towards the west and North. Further South and East amounts of rain would be small and mostly from showers.ECM today looks much more encouraging than last night with the Low held more towards the NW bringing it's main influence to bear mostly across Northern and Western Britain with just a trough cross England midweek with some showers. Behind this though cooler the weather looks like setting up a NW/SE split with rain at times in the NW while the South and East become largely dry and eventually warmer again as High pressure to the South pushes it's influence towards Southern Britain later.In Summary today nothing is any clearer as we look through next week and beyond. While the models continue to jostle over the pattern for next week the fine spell currently enjoyed by most continues to be extended and it now looks like midweek before any real chance of a breakdown seems likely. Even then with such a variety of options available I can put no credence on any one of them verifying until we have more cross model support on such a breakdown and the timing thereof. Meanwhile much of the UK can look forward to at least another 4-5 days at least of good June weather with temperatures very acceptable for the UK if not record breaking.

Good evening people. Here is the evening report from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM for today Wednesday June 5th 2013.All models continue to programme largely fine and warm conditions between now and the start of the new working week. With High pressure remaining close to the UK rain bearing weather systems will be largely held at bay from UK shores albeit that the High gradually weakens with time. After the warmth peaks on Friday slightly cooler uppers will check temperatures back several degrees over the weekend but with maintained sunny spells.GFS then takes us through next week with a through of Low pressure moving slowly East across the UK, weakening as it does with a band of rain, perhaps thundery edging slowly East through the week. Through FI tonight a very changeable pattern evolves with something for everybody looking likely, ranging from rainfall to dry and warm sunny spells and some cooler interludes too in a very confused synoptic progression.The GFS Ensembles look pretty uninspiring for Southern Britain from the 9th, Central areas from the 10th and areas further North later still as more unsettled weather still looks favoured to move up from the South and SW early next week with rainfall most prevalent in Southern and Central regions.The Jet Stream currently flowing lightly well to the North of Britain weakens further over the coming days before aligning to the south of the UK in a rather strengthened format by midweek next week.UKMO tonight shows a Southerly flow developing over the UK early next week as Low pressure deepens to the west spreading cloud, wind and rain slowly East across the UK early next week.GEM keeps fine weather going into next week as a weak ridge holds it's ground South over the UK before pressure falls to the West with rain and eventually cooler and unsettled weather with rain at times develops later in the week.NAVGEM too shows more unsettled weather very slowly making its way steadily but slowly East over the UK through next week with rain at times gradually becoming more extensive later in the week.ECM looks much more unsettled tonight from as early as Tuesday with a more Atlantic based weather pattern developing with fresh winds, cooler conditions and some heavy rain or showers at times for most later in the week.In Summary the pattern is as confusing as ever with a mish mash of solutions on offer next week all eventually leading to a breakdown of sorts later next week. The two worst runs tonight are GEM and ECM who both bring in a full blooded change to cooler and wetter conditions from off the Atlantic later next week with GFS and NAVGEM showing a halfway house in delaying the unsettled weather's onset until later in the week. UKMO offers more unsettled conditions too following the term of it's run but it's progress east and north to all areas seems questionable.

Good morning folks. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday June 5th 2013.All models show High pressure holding control of the UK weather for some time to come. Between now and the end of the weekend the High will remain to the North of the UK with a slack ridge of high pressure stretching down over the UK holding off Atlantic low pressure to the West and thundery Low pressure to the South. Most places spare the odd shower will be dry and fine between now and the start of next week with temperatures above average and some good sunny spells for many away from cooler windward coasts.GFS then keeps the status quo going into the middle of the week with a lot of fine and dry weather. A trough will be feeding in from the West with some showery outbreaks of rain spreading in from the West on Thursday with showers breaking out more widely over England and Wales by next weekend. FI today shows a change to cooler conditions from the NW in Week 2 as a ridge collapses away SE and Atlantic fronts move East and South across the UK bringing cool and unsettled conditions to all areas by the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles today show warmer than average conditions continuing until around the 20th and 11th when cooler conditions take control from then until the expiry of the run. Rainfall amounts remain low though throughout the period of cooler uppers with no sign of any widespread heavy rainfall with most of it progged as showers.The Jet Stream currently blowing well to the NW of the UK weakens over the next 4-5 days before realigning across the Atlantic to Southern Europe as we move through next week.UKMO shows a period of slack winds under slack pressure gradients over the UK at the weekend with the largely fine and settled weather of then giving way to more unsettled conditions next week as low pressure is shown to edge a trough in from the SW on Monday with attendant showery rain in tow for most Southern and Western areas on Monday.GEM today keeps a ridge stretching down from the North over the first half of next week with any isolated showers reserved for the extreme South while most other areas stay completely dry, bright and reasonably warm in the sunshine. Late in the week Low pressure makes it's move towards the SW at the same time as low pressure passes SE to the NE with rain or showers possible at opposite ends of the UK while central regions remain in nomansland and possibly remain largely dry.NAVGEM holds a ridge over the UK from the SW through the weekend sliding slowly SE while taking the first half of next week to clear the South Coast maintaining dry, bright and reasonably warm conditions going. From midweek Atlantic Low pressure does make inroads into the UK with rain bearing troughs moving in with rain and strengthening SW winds making it a much more unsettled and cooler end to the week.ECM today holds a ridge of high pressure over the UK early next week holding off any progression towards more unsettled conditions until the middle of next week with dry, bright and reasonably warm conditions continuing under very light winds. From midweek though a change does take place with Low pressure, wind and rain moving into the UK from off the Atlantic to give a wet end to the week, especially in the South. As a result it would become much cooler.In Summary there is still some differences of opinion between the models as we go through next week. Between now and then the weather continues to be shown set fair with pleasantly warm if not record breaking hot conditions continuing with sunny spells and, under slack pressure conditions the odd heavy shower could break out over the hills at times. Through next week Low pressure does make inroads into the UK with time but it's progress is slow and erratic between the outputs with the South and West at greatest risk of seeing a change in conditions first with changes further East and North much harder to call.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday June 4th 2013.All models continue to paint a settled and warm picture for the next 4-5 days at least as High pressure remains in control of the UK weather for the period up to the end of the weekend. The centre of High pressure will remain close to Northern Britain with a fresh Easterly breeze across the South at times with the risk of a few thundery afternoon showers across Northern and Western high ground late in the week and over the weekend.GFS then shows the risk of showers increase as we move deeper into next week with a cooler feel to things over most areas by the end of the run as winds settle more from the West through FI.The GFS Ensembles show another 4-5 days of warm uppers over the UK before things turn much closer to the June average. A few very chilly options are shown from a few members tonight with an unsettled trend developing from early next week especially in Central and Southern areas.The Jet Stream continues to lie blowing weakly well to the NW of Britain for the time being. However, it's bad news thereafter as it migrates much further South to a position well South of the UK running due West to East over the Atlantic and Northern Spain as we move into and through next week.UKMO tonight shows pressure falling from the SW as we move out of the weekend and into next week with thundery showers or longer spells of thundery rain developing for many as we move progressively through the first half of next week.GEM shows a slow deterioration in weather conditions as we move through next week with thundery rain or showers becoming quite extensive over Southern and Central areas by midweek and with pressure thereafter remaining Low or even lower by the end of the week the current fine early Summer spell would become a distant memory, at least for the southern two thirds of the nation.NAVGEM tonight shows a slower deterioration than GEM with the North holding on to dry and fine weather well into next week before all areas look like becoming unsettled later in the week.ECM finally bucks the trend shown by the other models as it's operational run tonight shows slack pressure continuing over the UK throughout the next working week as High pressure stubbornly maintains something of a ridge across the UK with largely fine conditions with sunny spells for most and just the odd scattered heavy shower in the warmth of the days. Late in the week a more sustained breakdown looks likely over the South as Low pressure finally makes a move towards SW Britain by Day 10.In Summary there is still some disagreement over the weather events of next week as the models continue to jostle with complex synoptics over and around the British isles. All models suggest an attempted breakdown at least coming from the SW but the timings vary between the models ranging from as soon as the early week from GFS & UKMO to midweek from NAVGEM and the very end of the week from ECM. The ensemble data from GFS does support an early part of the week breakdown is most likely and I would have to wait until seeing the ECM Ensemble data later before passing too much judgement on it's evolution. However, taking all this into account lets continue to enjoy the fine and warm weather of the next 5 days or so and hope this is extended over coming runs.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the ever changing outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for midnight today Tuesday June 4th 2013.There is still a general consensus between the models of dry and fine conditions prevailing over the UK between now and the start of next week with plenty of warm sunshine and relatively light winds, mostly from the East all due to High pressure drifting slowly away to the North of the UK. There is the risk of the odd isolated heavy late day shower each day but these will be the exception to the rule. There will be a cooling trend near the East Coast as misty low cloud invades from the North Sea affecting Central areas too in the early morning's.GFS then draws a thundery disturbance close to Southern Britain very early next week with a day or so of thundery rain or showers here. Then after a drier interlude under a ridge cooler and fresher Atlantic air crosses from the West midweek bringing rain and fresh breezes to all areas for a time. Thereafter, a more Atlantic Westerly based airflow pattern develops with some rain at times more especially in the North.The GFS Ensembles show a change to rather cooler and unsettled conditions look likely as we move into next week with temperatures returning to normal levels with rain at times.The Jet Stream currently flowing lightly well to the NW of Britain reinvigorates early next week on a West to East course towards France.UKMO shows Low pressure developing to the SW of the UK early next week with a potentially thundery breakdown of the weather looking likely. The thundery showers will be most prolific towards Southern and Western areas with the best of the dry and bright weather likely to the NW while the NE sees misty low cloud and cool conditions with a feed off the cool North Sea. Most areas will become rather humid but still warm in any brightness.GEM today also shows a threat of something rather thundery in nature for the SW of the UK while Northern and Eastern areas look at greatest chance of staying dry and fine. The progression towards a total breakdown of the weather is very half-hearted with some places still dry at the end of the run with any shower risk reserved mostly towards the West.NAVGEM brings a change to thundery showers more generally across the South early next week before they clear away East to leave a weak ridge over the UK with dry weather with sunny spells and average temperatures returning around midweek.ECM also shows a thundery breakdown from the SW early next week. The breakdown is hardly a clean one though with many Northern and Eastern areas remaining fine and dry for a good while with the SW seeing the largest changes where thundery rain would never be far away as low pressure develops close by at the end of next week.In Summary the models are still showing a lot of uncertainty in the course of weather events next week. Their struggle is built around their inability to chart how much the current high pressure area loses it's grip and to what extent any resultant Low pressure makes inroads into the UK. The best stab I can give it this morning is that it looks like the greatest chance of seeing a change to the current fine and warm spell is likely to be in the SW as all models look keen to bring at least a temporary spell of thundery rain in here early next week. They are much less keen to spread this on to other areas though later in the week with High pressure still nosing down from the North at times. Whatever happens it looks like the current gin clear skies will be replaced by hazy and more humid conditions with more cloud and poorer visibility from the weekend on. If ECM is to be believed a pretty wet spell could develop in the SW at the end of next week but this is just one of a variety of options shown for the UK by then.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday output from GFS, UKMO, GEM and ECM for today Monday June 3rd 2013.The broad scale synoptic pattern remains controlled by High pressure transferring from the UK slowly North through the week. The weather will be largely fine and dry with long sunny spells and warm conditions with a light easterly wind through the rest of the week. A few well scattered showers could occur here and there later in the week, most likely in the North.GFS then shows more unsettled conditions later in the weekend and into next week as Low pressure moves in from off the Atlantic across Southern Britain with some heavy rain developing across these areas into the new week. The North will largely miss a lot of this rainfall though more extensive unsettled conditions gradually develop for all later in the week with rather cool conditions likely by the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles show the warmer spell losing it's grip beyond this week with a return to average conditions with rain at times from the end of the weekend and start to next week.The Jet Stream shows the flow way to the NW at the moment, such as it is with this weakening over the coming days and realigning across the Atlantic towards France and Spain by next week.UKMO has High pressure centred over the North Sea next Sunday with lower pressure lying towards the South and SW of the UK. There is a considerable chance of thundery showers edging into South and the SW of England and Wales late next Sunday and beyond.GEM tonight shows slow changes from next weekend as High pressure slowly loses it's grip in response to troughs of Low pressure advancing NNE across the South early next week with a West/East split developing towards the end of the run with the highest chance of rain likely in the West.NAVGEM shows Low pressure easing it's way East into the UK early next week with the chances of rain increasing steadily with time.ECM finally also shows falling pressure from the end of the weekend and into next week. Changes in weather are slow though with some places staying dry until midweek when the scattered thundery showers give way to something more Atlantic based late in the run with more extensive and heavy rainfall in cooler and breezier conditions.In Summary tonight the weather remains set fair between now and the weekend with the vast majority of the UK enjoying warm and settled conditions with sunny spells and the odd sharp shower, most likely in the North over the next few days and the South at the weekend. Next week looks like changes are more likely as Low pressure erodes the high pressure gradually away North with an increasing threat of showers or even longer spells of rain moving up from the south or SW as we move through next week as well as temperatures returning to average levels or a little below in the rain. having said all of that there is still a lot of uncertainty shown in specifics next week so expect further changes in the model output's in the days ahead.

Hi everyone. Here is the report taken from the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday June 3rd 2013.All models show High pressure over the UK for the coming days before it drifts slowly away to the North with a slack or Easterly flow developing over the UK later in the week. Conditions will remain set fair through the week with varying amounts of cloud and sunny spells for all. Coastal areas will be cooler with onshore sea breezes developing each afternoon and the build up of daytime cloud could promote a few showers midweek in the North and West and perhaps the risk extending to other areas too by the weekend though most places will see nothing of these and stay dry and warm.GFS then shows a trough moving into Western Britain late next weekend sparking off some showers or outbreaks of thundery rain, especially in the West with clearer and fresher winds from the Atlantic following midweek. Pressure then rebuilds from midweek and with higher humidities it would quickly become very warm with sunny spells away from the drizzly NW before the chance of thundery showers looks possible for Southern Britain by the end of the run.The GFS Ensembles show the operational largely unsupported late in it's run with the vast majority of members pointing to an increasingly warm week to come before things return to more average levels with occasional rainfall chances increasing with time.The Jet Stream shows a weak flow blowing aimlessly around through the coming week before a resurgence of strength to an arm of the flow crosses the Atlantic towards Southern Britain by the start of next week.UKMO today shows falling pressure next Sunday though with light winds and no major weather features close by the weather may stay largely dry at this juncture with sunny spells but the odd heavy daytime shower developing in temperatures still reasonably high.GEM shows slack pressure at the weekend with a lot of dry weather between well spaced showers for the unlucky few. Next week though does show a wakening Atlantic with Low pressure knocking on the door of the UK with some rain for the West before the end of the run.NAVGEM too shows a similar evolution today with an Atlantic Low early next week pulling a potentially thundery trough slowly North and East over Southern and Western Britain early next week.ECM completes the set with a similar weather pattern to the rest gradually bringing an Atlantic influence into the UK early next week with the prospect of fresher winds and some rain displacing the quite and benign weather pattern prior to this.In Summary today there is a pattern beginning to emerge of a change to more Atlantic based weather pattern as we move into next week. This week is more or less set in stone now with the vast majority of the UK continuing to enjoy warm and settled conditions with no more than the isolated shower or two to interrupt this for the unlucky few. As the Jet Stream gradually picks up some momentum at the start of next week it energizes the Atlantic to bring troughs from an Atlantic Low into at least Western Britain to start next week though it may have a struggle to reach Easternmost areas with mostly dry and brighter weather most likely to be maintained here. However, between now and then a lot of dry and warm weather to be enjoyed for all.

Hi everyone. Here is my evening report on the 12z outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday June 2nd 2013.All models continue to show much the same pattern as this morning with High pressure remaining in control of the weather over the UK for the week to come. As the High moves from the SW of the UK to a position North of the UK later in the week the pressure pattern becomes very slack over the UK. There will be plenty of dry, warm and settled conditions with variable cloud cover by day with the occasional shower thrown in to keep life interesting. These may be slightly more prevalent in the North midweek and the far South by the weekend but overall many more places will stay dry and warm than see any showers.GFS then has a trend to gradually see pressure fall next weekend with showers building from the South to more areas. Reinforcements are also fed to the UK from the Atlantic for a time with the risk of showers or occasional rain quite high for a time before the weather settles down again under High pressure late in the run with more dry and sunny weather likely then for most.The GFS Ensembles show steadily warming uppers over the coming days with some very warm afternoons possible later this week. Thereafter, uppers are well agreed upon to fall back to average levels with the incidence of rain at times increasing in Central and Southern areas from later this week.The Jet Stream shows a slack and confused flow around the UK for the week to come before a more definitive flow develops worryingly to the South of the UK at the start of week 2.UKMO tonight shows a ridge of High pressure over the UK building across the UK from the Azores with fine, warm and settled conditions re-establishing itself across the British Isles away from the far NW where cloud and light rain is possible over the weekend.GEM shows a similar second injection of High pressure late in the week and next weekend with fine and warm weather likely for most eradicating the showers from the few areas that receive them earlier in the week. Towards the end of the run the Atlantic rain bearing depressions are getting dangerously close to the UK by the end of it's output.NAVGEM tonight follows a similar trend though it holds any impression from the Atlantic off until after the term of the run.ECM shows fine weather hanging on over much of the UK too with High pressure loosely holding grip of the weather over the UK. There would be warm sunny spells for all with the chance of the odd heavy afternoon shower here and there. Towards the end of it's run synoptics remain very messy over and around the UK with the trend bordering on more unsettled weather gradually becoming possible from slow moving upper troughs caught up in the slack conditions over the UK or from a more direct push from an Atlantic depression.In Summary there remains still a lot of uncertainty following the cross model certainty of this week. After a largely dry and increasingly warm and summery feeling week the cracks around the edge of our fine weather spell begin to occur from the weekend. Although the core of the weather will remain balanced towards fine, dry and warm conditions continuing the chances of showers increases slowly as pressure becomes very slack over the UK. These weather synoptics are notoriously difficult for both the computer models and forecasters to anticipate what will develop beyond such charts being shown so with that in mind I feel it is an open forum as to whether we keep this pleasant early summer spell or we return to something slightly more unsettled beyond the end of this coming week and weekend.

Good morning. A little busy this morning so a slightly shorter report than normal with the info taken from the midnight output of GFS, UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM for today Sunday June 2nd 2013.All models continue to show the UK weather governed by High pressure to the SW of the UK. Over the coming days it will transit through Britain to settle just to the North of the UK. The weather through the coming week will continue to be dominated by it's presence with sunny spells by day and clear spells at night in quite light winds. In time the NW will join the rest of the UK in better conditions though conversely Northern areas in general could see the risk of a shower midweek as a disturbance runs West over Scotland.GFS then shows next weekend still set fair with warm sunny spells under a ridge of high pressure. Fronts are shown to approach NW Britain but largely weaken with no more than the risk of a shower as they move East into the higher pressure. FI shows the risk of a shower at first but High pressure re-establishes strongly over the UK with a lit of dry and sunny weather to be enjoyed. It would become very warm for most.The GFS Ensembles show uppers gradually on the rise with a spell of sustained temperatures above average. The operational was a warmer option later on but it falls in with the general trend of warmer weather for all. Precipitation amounts do increase for a time later in the run mostly from showers affecting the South.The Jet Stream shows a very weak and non-descript flow at present which largely lasts through this week. there is a tendency for it to slip to the South of the UK into the second week but it's not shown in a commanding form as yet.UKMO today shows next weekend with a weakening ridge of High pressure lying across the UK from the Atlantic with a dry and reasonably warm weekend likely for most if not all of the UK next weekend with sunny spells for most.GEM shows the ridge next weekend a little further North over Scotland with somewhat lower pressure near the South promoting a heavy shower risk here. Towards the end of it's run pressure begins to fall in slack pressure conditions and it maybe that showers become a bigger feature of the weather for more areas late in it's run.NAVGEM too keeps an open field pressure wise with light and variable winds over the UK. With an upper atmosphere showery feature caught up over the east of the UK for several days there is the risk of a shower but the vast majority is shown to enjoy largely fine and dry weather with sunny spells and light winds. Temperatures would remain just on the warm side of average for most by day.ECM this morning too keeps relatively settled weather over the UK from slack High pressure sitting over the UK next weekend. Thereafter things quickly go downhill with a deep Atlantic depression bringing wind and rain East over the UK to be followed by windy and cool NW winds and showers to end the run.In Summary today the models are quite happy to maintain High pressure in domination of the UK weather for some considerable time. The threat of showers has reduced with just a few at the end of this week for a few and perhaps near Northern Britain for a time midweek but most will stay dry, bright and warm. GFS brings us into a potentially very warm and settled spell through week 2 which although was on the top side of the member group in the ensembles was not without strong support for maintaining warmth through Week 2. ECM does spoil the party though by bringing in a potent depression after next weekend which would see an end to the good weather and a return to wind rain and showers along with cooler temperatures later. It's the second ECM run with this evolution and lets see if it's there on the 12zs tonight before being too judgemental.

Good evening. Here is the report from the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday June 1st 2013.All models continue to show a mostly settled week to come with variable amounts of cloud, sunny spells and mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will remain largely in the range of 15C-22C North to South through the afternoons. As High pressure crosses the UK and then moves further North away from the UK mainland later next week then the risk of showers increase as pressure falls somewhat at least for a time.GFS brings showers at times from as early as midweek with nowhere immune but many places may miss them and stay dry. This trend continues towards the weekend and beyond as Low pressure moves it's way North from France with thundery rain becoming more widespread in the South. Later in FI a more Atlantic based pattern sets up with fronts in the flow bringing occasional rain more likely to Northern areas by then with temperatures close to average.The GFS Ensembles show a largely dry week to come before more unsettled conditions are shown in the South while the North holds on to drier conditions rather longer. Temperatures look sustained at levels close to or just above average. The operational run was not well supported in it's Atlantic based finale.The Jet Stream shows a very weak and ill defined flow over the coming week before it trends to drift to the South of the UK at the end of the reliable part of the run.UKMO closes it's run with High pressure re-establishing itself from Scandinavia over Scotland following a slightly showery interlude midweek. the weather looks set fair with plenty of dry and fine weather with sunny spells and temperatures on the right side of average for many, especially in the west and away from Eastern Coasts which could turn rather cool and misty.GEM tonight also shows slack pressure from the middle of the week with the risk of scattered showers before High pressure re-establishes this time from the Azores stretching across the UK and Scandinavia by the end of the run with a return to fine and warm conditions with sunny spells for many with any risk of showers held down over France.NAVGEM also shows the risk of showers midweek before the risk diminishes again as slack pressure patterns continue through to the end of the run. Temperatures will remain close to average with the warmest conditions naturally in the sunshine which would be scattered about between cloudier spells.ECM tonight shows slack pressure midweek with the risk of showers greatest then and probably in the North. Later pressure recovers briefly before the Atlantic makes a full blooded attack from the West by Day 10.In Summary a very confusing set of output tonight and one which I'm not going to dwell on tonight. In brief it looks like relatively fine conditions for a week from now with the chance of a showery interlude for a few midweek. Longer term complex pressure patterns mean almost anything could happen and I don't think any model has any sort of handle in what is likely to occur the week after next yet.

Good morning everyone. Here is my take on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday June 1st 2013. All models continue to show a similar course of events as we progress through the next 7 days. The UK weather through the next week will be governed by the transit of High pressure to the SW of the UK via the UK and away to the North later next week. There will be dry and fine weather for many throughout this period with pleasant and warm sunshine by day but rather chilly nights with some valley mist patches around dawn. Winds will be light and cloud amounts rather variable and sometimes rather large by day. After midweek pressure leaks away over the UK with a slacker airflow pattern developing. With small upper air features floating about and the trend for lower pressure to develop from the South the incidence of showers will increase from midweek with some heavy and thundery ones possible in the South before next weekend. GFS then takes us through the second weekend and following week with Low pressure close to the SW for a time with thundery showers here while Northern and Eastern parts see dry and fine conditions persist. Through the rest of FI, though a lot of fine and dry weather prevails small disturbances affect the UK at times with the risk of showers never totally eliminated. The GFS Ensembles show solid agreement with very little spread between members on a period of slightly above average uppers next week before things revert to more average levels thereafter. The North holds on to the driest weather while the South looks increasingly showery for a time perhaps reducing a little later. The Jet Stream looks like remaining weak and disorganized over this part of the Northern hemisphere for the next week or so. With no definitive pattern there will be fingers of air moving around all over the place in the upper atmosphere over the next week making predicting developments of weather features very hard to predict. UKMO today has High pressure to the North of the UK to end next week with the UK lying in a slack Easterly flow. Some decent weather will be maintained for many with some warm sunny spells while the South and SW in particular run the risk of thundery showers later. GEM has high pressure retreating away West then NW later next week and weekend with Low pressure feeding down the North Sea to be centred close to Southern England to end the run with showers breaking out in many Southern areas later while the best of the dry and bright weather retreats towards the NW. NAVGEM keeps a very slack pressure pattern over the UK at the end of next week and weekend with High pressure clinging on to the UK most influential towards the north and NW. With pressure slowly falling and with lower pressure over the Continent cooler uppers could introduce some showery activity in the South later. ECM today is disappointing as it pulls up a more coherent area of thundery Low pressure north from France late next week and more especially over the weekend. Thundery showers will break out over the South late in the week with some longer spells of thundery rain at the weekend in developing cool conditions with any dry weather under these synoptics restricted to the far NW. In Summary there is very little change in the synoptic progression this morning to that of late. The main question is how soon will showers be introduced over the UK in response to the High pressure moving further away from the UK. In answer all models show the risk of this soon after midweek with ECM disappointingly poor longer term this morning with a wet 2nd weekend shown for Southern Britain. Using a broad sweep method the most likely scenario would be for guaranteed dry and bright weather head further NW as here there looks a very good chance of staying dry, bright and at times warm. In the South there will be a lot of this weather too but it would be amiss of me to not mention the risk of heavy showers becoming much more likely with time as we move towards and through next weekend with all models showing Low pressure close to the South to a greater or lesser degree by then.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the noon output of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 31st 2013. All models show High pressure well in control weather for the next 5-7 days at least with the centre moving from the SW over the UK late in the weekend and away to the North later next week. It's influence though will maintain a position close enough to keep many areas dry until at least this time next week though there may be some scattered showers about for the unlucky few from midweek. GFS then takes us through next weekend with the North being best close to High pressure to the North with sunny spells and reasonably warm conditions in the sunshine. In the South the proximity of slack or low pressure to the South will encourage showers to form but not for everyone with a lot of dry weather still around even here. In FI tonight pressure remains slack but reasonably high with no real weather features over the UK. Therefore the weather would likely stay dry with pressure on the rise again at the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show a warm enough spell of weather to come with temperatures slightly above normal for the most part. The only thing I'm not so keen on is the number of members showing rainfall to Central and Southern areas later in the run. The Jet Stream shows a very weak flow for much of the period with no set positioning. With such slack winds the movement of small weather systems in the higher atmosphere will be hard to judge the movements of next week. UKMO tonight closes with pressure recovering somewhat following a fall off in the middle of the week. The weather apart from the risk of a shower midweek would be mostly fine and warm with sunny spells. GEM shows a blip in the High pressure midweek with a risk of showers on Wednesday. Some improvements take place once more later in the week and over the weekend as High pressure builds back to maintain largely fine and reasonably warm conditions. NAVGEM shows a mostly high pressure based run with a slow fall off in pressure at the end promoting the gentle progression towards showers by the end of the run. ECM tonight once more shows increasingly messy synoptics towards the end of it's run with no real weather feature having overall control. Taking that into account the most likely outcome is plenty of dry and reasonable weather for many, especially more towards the North whereas further South the greater likelihood of a showery theme increases with time. In Summary the models are OK tonight with no major breakdown likely over the duration of the output. Instead there is a slackening of pressure shown by all models through next week but with High pressure never far away to the North fine weather will maintain the upper hand. The risk of showers is there though from as early as midweek from some output but with these likely to be scattered and far from widespread many areas will likely miss them and stay dry at least in the reliable timeframe.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 31st 2013. All models show complete agreement in the sequence of events synoptically and weather-wise over the next week or so making my job rather easier this morning. A slack Northerly flow over the UK exists at present under steadily rising pressure from the SW. Today will see bright weather as a result and with rather humid air over England and Wales still it will feel warm this afternoon. A weak front crossing Scotland could trigger an odd shower and will carry fresher air down over the UK tonight with lower temperatures than of late. The weekend then shows High pressure moving in over the UK by the end of Sunday with bright days with good sunny spells and cool nights for all. Early next week the High over the UK moves north with little change occurring though an Easterly drift to the wind will develop over the South by Tuesday. Through the remainder of the week all models support pulling the High pressure well to the North of the UK with a slack NE or East flow developing over the UK. Many places will remain dry but upper air features will become caught up in the airflow over the UK sufficient enough to promote the development of showers later in the week, these more likely towards the South. GFS then moves through next weekend with one such feature drifting West over Scotland while pressure falls to the South of the UK too with more widespread rain or thundery showers edging up from the South over the weekend. Through FI today a more changeable pattern is apparent with some dry and bright days under a transient ridge before we end up back to square one to end the run with the UK under a slow moving trough with rain or showers at times and very average temperatures at best for June. The GFS Ensembles have taken a step back this morning with most members now supporting very average temperatures over the coming weeks with little sign of any significant warmth. Nevertheless, a lot of dry weather is shown especially for the North. The South too shares this dry weather in the first week with a trend towards more unsettled conditions here from later next week indicating Low pressure moving up from the South or SW. The Jet Stream falls light and insignificant to NW Europe over the coming days and that's how it stays for much of next week before a trend to set up an arm way to the NW between Iceland and Greenland is shown by the ensemble end. UKMO is covered within the above text from the first paragraph. GEM moves towards the end of next week and weekend with increasingly unsettled conditions developing, especially over the South with rain or showers very likely. The North would stay dry for the most part though even here a shower could not be ruled out later. Temperatures shown are close to average for all. NAVGEM ends it's run with High pressure to the North and a strengthening Easterly flow developing as Low pressure deepens to the South of the UK replacing the otherwise showery conditions in the South with the threat of more persistent rain edging up from the South. The North would stay largely dry and bright with the warmest conditions in the NW. Elsewhere temperatures look like being close to average. ECM today shows a very complex slack pressure pattern over the UK late next week and through the weekend. In essence the weather would be characterized by a lot of dry and benign weather conditions with plenty of bright weather around but with the ever increasing risk of showers from midweek as upper air disturbances become embroiled in the slack airflow pattern. Late in the run a more marked breakdown with Low pressure is shown moving it's way North towards Southern Britain from Spain. In Summary this morning we have universal agreement that the weather will be set fair for the next 5 days or so with plenty of dry and pleasant weather with warm sunny spells and light winds. Night temperatures will be rather chilly and day temperatures will be near to average for many. From midweek there is good support this morning for pressure to leak away over the UK with the increased threat of showers and probably longer spells of rain to the South later as Low pressure pushes up from the South ala GFS, GEM and ECM. However, despite this talk of rain many places will continue with 'OK' weather between any showers but those wanting a heatwave I'm afraid there is little evidence of that this morning, none more so when looking at the GFS Ensembles. What is apparent if these charts verify UKMO mid term outlook yesterday made a good call on their forecast and I expect it to be further backed up today on it's usual Friday more comprehensive outlook.

Hi everyone. Here is my take on the 12 noon outputs issued by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday My 30th 2013. All models show High pressure steadily building NE towards the British Isles over the coming few days and over the weekend. Progressively drier and brighter conditions will develop from now on across the UK although conversely Northern Ireland and Scotland will see more cloudy weather with some light rain or afternoon heavy showers tomorrow and more cloud and light rain over the weekend.. It will be warm tomorrow over England and Wales and rather less so over the weekend as fresher air replaces the current humid air still covering England and Wales. There will be plenty of sunshine in average temperatures though to replace it. Early next week sees all models support the evolution of High pressure extending NE towards Scandinavia and an Easterly flow developing across Southern areas with the threat of showers rising here by midweek. GFS then shows the slow but progressive fall in pressure continuing later next week with more and more showers in Southern Britain day to day. As we reach the weekend and FI some longer spells of potentially thundery rain are possible in the South extending further North. The end of the run then becomes cool and unsettled with showers or rain at times mixed with some brighter and drier spells. The GFS Ensembles show a warmer spell to come as uppers rise above the June mean and persist that way for much of the two weeks. There is though a trend towards more unsettled conditions for Southern and Central areas with time with the driest conditions reserved for Scotland. The Jet Stream shows the flow disrupting and becoming weak and diffuse before a split flow results in arms flowing North and South of the UK with a huge area of slack upper winds affecting much of Europe including the British Isles in a week or so. UKMO tonight migrating North towards midweek with lower pressure gradually developing from the South. At this time point though the weather will still be dry and fine for all with some sunny spells with the warmest conditions developing in the West and North. GEM shows a similar evolution moving on to take High pressure way to the NE of the UK. Pressure will fall steadily, especially in the South where Easterly winds would bring showers up from Europe and perhaps more general rain in the SW at the end of the run. While all this is going on in the South the North remains dry and pleasant with sunny spells and the best warmth in the West of Scotland. NAVGEM shows the same pattern with showers developing from the South to the South from midweek. ECM tonight also shows High pressure moving away North at the midweek point though maintaining a ridge down across the UK sufficient enough to keep most places dry through the week. It opts for High pressure South of Iceland late in it's run and the UK ridge is under pressure from the disturbance close to the East of England with the increasing threat of showers towards the weekend. Temperatures would be pleasantly warm in the sunshine though with a drift from the east for the middle and end of next week North Sea coasts would feel very fresh. Things though are generally on the decline by Day 10 as High pressure finally relinquishes it's grip. In Summary all models show High pressure moving North of the UK later next week following several days of fine and warm weather with sunny spells. The net result of this is as I said this morning what happens to the weak disturbances caught on the underside of the High. GFS and GEM show a more substantial breakdown than ECM tonight but it wouldn't take much of a shift in any of the outputs to show either a wet South or a dry South and I think several more days of shifts and changes will occur before any concrete foundation can be put to any particular likely evolution so my advice is enjoy the guaranteed good weather over the weekend and early next week.

Hi folks. Here is this morning's report taken from the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday May 30th 2013. All models show a Northerly flow over the UK between now and the weekend. The flow will weaken slowly as High pressure very slowly makes it's way towards SW Britain restricting the amounts of rain and showers that are currently occurring to the extreme SE by tomorrow night. Over the weekend most areas will be dry, still with a very light North wind with the exception of NW Britain which may see cloud and a little rain over the weekend. Elsewhere some sunshine is likely but with a lot of cloud at times too in average temperatures. GFS then shows High pressure ridge North from Southern England early next week to Northern Scandinavia with a slack airflow over the UK. An upper trough moving down from the NE could promote a few showers here and there by Wednesday. Later in the week and through much of the second half of the run a North/South split develops with the North maintaining largely dry and bright weather with light winds. Further South Low pressure over France creates a cooling Easterly flow here with scattered showers at times before a slack airflow develops for all by the end of the run with a lot of dry if not overly warm conditions. The GFS Ensembles show the operational as one of the warmest members through the mid section of the run. The trend is for a cooling off beyond next weekend with temperatures close to average. There looks to be plenty of opportunity from many members for showers in Southern and Central regions later while Northern locations look to be largely dry. The Jet Stream is currently the process of breaking up around the British Isles before a split develops later with one arm well North of the UK near Iceland and Scandinavia while the Southern arm relentlessly continues to flow strongly East over north Africa and the Southern Mediterranean Sea. UKMO today shows High pressure migrating North away from the UK by midweek. A ridge is maintained from it's centre over the UK maintaining fine and dry conditions. Cloud amounts will be quite large at times though with bright rather than sunny weather likely in respectable temperatures towards the West. It may become cool and misty near North Sea coasts. GEM today also shows High pressure retreating NE towards Scandinavia by the middle of next week with a period of slack winds, broken cloud and some sunshine. Temperatures would be close to or in any prolonged sunnier breaks a bit on the warm side. Late in the run the void over the UK is filled by Low pressure moving in from the Atlantic with all areas seeing cloudy weather with rain or showers at times for next weekend. NAVGEM is rather different maintaining High pressure close to the Southern half of the UK throughout the run with dry and bright conditions persisting as a result. However as it migrates towards the SW the door is open for fronts to move East and SE over more Northern and Eastern parts to end the run. ECM shows High pressure maintaining it's influence over the UK in it's extended outlook with the main centre taking up a position West of the UK with a ridge extending across many parts. However, right at the end of the run things are becoming more tentative towards the SE as a cool upper sir feature moves in close with a risk of showers breaking out here next weekend. In Summary this morning it's all about where that High migrates too from midweek and what position any small upper troughs and disturbances are in following it's departure. There are various options on offer though it is important to emphasise before commenting on these that the vast majority of the next two weeks for most look predominently dry. Small upper atmoshere features could give rise to scattered showers here and there and GFS takes this one step further in developing this type of feature into a Low cell to the South of the UK which would give rise to more extensive showers in the South with time. Unfortunately it never looks like becoming very warm and cloud amounts at times will be quite large and disappointing for many. Nevertheless the absence of end to end Nationwide rain is a plus and most people I'm sure will remain quite happy with the output at present.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 29th 2013. All models show improvements on the way for the UK. The current unstable airflow blowing from the North will relax it's grip over the coming days as High pressure builds in from the West over the weekend. Improvements will be quite slow for England and Wales with another unsettled day tomorrow before the drier weather feeds East over Friday and the weekend. Most areas will become dry away from the far NW where Atlantic fronts could bring cloud and a little rain over the weekend. Further South over England and Wales there will be variable cloud cover with sunny intervals and it will feel warm as a result. GFS then shows next week with High pressure just about maintaining control over the UK. I feel for many that cloud cover will be quite large and the risk of showers is there both in the east towards midweek and the west by the weekend although many places should stay dry with temperatures a little above average. Through FI tonight High pressure remains a feature to the North of the UK with fairly slack pressure patterns over the UK. There will not be a full on heatwave as a result of this setup but broken cloud, sunny spells and slightly above average temperatures and the risk of showers in the South. The GFS Ensembles show almost universal support for warmer than average uppers from next week. The operational was on the warm side of the pack in the South. The North shows dry conditions on the whole while Southern areas see a lot of rain spikes later indicating the infiltration of showery Low pressure into Southern Britain later. The Jet Stream shows the SE moving flow to the West of the UK breaking up in the next few days. The flow indicated on earlier model runs suggesting a Northward locating flow between Iceland and Scotland looks less likely on tonight's run as the flow diverts South having crossed the Atlantic towards Southern Spain. UKMO tonight shows high pressure over the UK early next week extending North on Tuesday. The weather will be set fair with a mix of broken cloud and sunny spells in which it will feel warm. Winds will be light and anticyclonic over all of the UK. GEM tonight is poor if it's sustained fine weather your after. The beginning of the week will be fine and sunny in most areas as the High migrates steadily North and Northeast towards Scandinavia. Pressure then falls from the South with showers breaking out from midweek with temperatures falling back to the seasonal average with the end of the run seeing a large cool pool over NW Europe with the return of sunshine and showers for all. NAVGEM shows the High moving NE across the UK and away to Scandinavia as we move through next week with pressure leaking away. A light Easterly flow sets up with the risk of afternoon showers developing across Southernmost parts. Temperatures will be close to or a little above the average in sunnier spells especially in the NW. ECM too shows High pressure stretched over the UK early next week with fine and dry weather with some good sunny spells for many and reasonably warm too. Later in the week the setup does become more complex, though High pressure remains in the driving seat with just the chance of a shower here and there. In Summary tonight the weather is still set to become warm and dry for much of next week. As always there will be complications developing as the week goes on in the shape of falling pressure and the risk of showery troughs becoming caught up close to or over the South of the UK. Overall there will still be a lot of dry and bright weather between any showers, though record breaking High temperatures are not expected and rather large amounts of cloud could spoil the party too at times.

Hi folks. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 29th 2013. All models show a ridge of High pressure moving slowly into the UK over the next 3-4 days slowly displacing the cool frontal laden airflow from the north that is affecting the UK at present. This means that the cloudy and damp conditions of late with outbreaks of rain or showers will become more and more restricted to Eastern parts and eventually leave the UK altogether by the second half of the weekend. As the High reaches our shores by Sunday weak Atlantic fronts may bring cloud and occasional light rain for a time later to the far North and NW of the UK. It will slowly become somewhat warmer. GFS then shows High pressure across the UK early next week with fine weather for all with sunny spells and light winds. Through the week the High becomes squeezed both from the West and East with the chance of cooler and more showery conditions developing over the East soon after midweek. Through FI today the UK is kept under shallow High pressure with some stubborn atmospheric weaknesses caught up in the flow increasing cloud amounts at times and giving rise to the odd shower but on the whole a lot of dry and acceptably warm conditions look like continuing with some warm sunshine at times. The GFS Ensembles continue to show a progression to slightly above average uppers over the upcoming period. With undulations in the rainfall amounts later in the run indicating higher afternoon spikes in the South it looks like showers are the order of the weather type in the South after a mostly dry period, this though most pronounced in the North. The Jet Stream profile moving SE to the West of the UK breaks down after the next 48 hours and realigns SW to NE between Scotland and Iceland later next week. UKMO today is set fair at the end of it's run with High pressure enveloping the UK with light winds for all, plenty of sunshine and conditions overall becoming rather warm by day. GEM this morning is not as prolific with it's High pressure development bringing a Scandi trough SSW over the North Sea next week with attendant cooler air and an increased risk of showers, first to the East and then more generally as pressure gradually leaks away later in the week. NAVGEM follows a similar track unfortunately with a showery disturbance from Scandinavia aiding the removal of the High to a position well North of the UK late in its run with the South and east becoming at risk of showery rainfall while the north and west remain largely dry and bright. ECM too supports the same theory although it is a little more restrictive in it's spread and extend to the showery cold pool likely close to SE Britain by the end of the run. After several days of fine, warm and sunny weather cooler conditions would spread into the East and South with an increased risk of showers later in the week. In Summary all models support a strong build of pressure from the weekend to the midweek period of next week when all areas should see a break from the changeable conditions of late to a pattern much more akin to Summer with warm sunny spells, light winds and warm weather. However, it doesn't look like lasting with most models showing a leaking away of pressure beyond midweek as a showery disturbance over Scandinava feeds SSW down the North Sea and on to the South of the UK. This looks like having the net effect of trending the driest and warmest conditions towards the North and West while Southern and Eastern parts look like becoming rather cooler and more showery again by next weekend, though not without some spells of sunshine between the showers too.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the output from noon today of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Tuesday May 28th 2013. All models show Low pressure centred over Southern England currently gradually retreating SE into the near Continent with today's rainfall gradually moving away Southward tomorrow. Some further weak bands of rain breaking up into showers could become briefly heavy tomorrow afternoon. From then on High pressure begins to build strongly from the SW with High pressure taking control of the UK weather from Friday with increasingly bright and sunny conditions. It will also begin to become warm by Sunday as winds fall very light with sea breezes developing near coasts in the afternoons. GFS tonight then takes us through the weekend and start to next week with High pressure strongly ridged across Southern Britain with fine and warm conditions here with breezier and slightly unsettled conditions affecting the far NW at times. As the run progresses through FI the High pressure and the most persistent fine conditions are held up to the North of the UK with the South returning a risk to potentially thundery showers, especially in the SE for a time and then the West towards the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show warmer than average uppers from this weekend on in association with High pressure from most members. There are some members including the operational which throws a spanner in the works in the shape of showery Low pressure affecting largely Southern areas later. The Jet Stream tonight indicates the SE moving flow to the West of the UK breaking up over the next 48 hours and remaining slack and diffuse over the areas surrounding the UK for some while. By this time next week the flow rejuvenates in a position moving NE to the NW of Scotland. UKMO tonight shows High pressure building NE strongly and slowly into the UK by the weekend. By Monday a High centre in excess of 1030mbs is centred over Southern England with light winds for all and good sunny spells with increasingly warm and summery conditions being felt by many by then. GEM shows a decent weekend too as High pressure builds in from the West towards the weekend with fine, sunny and dry conditions developing for all. However, in it's later stages high pressure is pushed away to the North as Low pressure pushes SW across the UK to settle us up for an Easterly flow over the UK with showers for Southern areas as it settles to the South of Britain while high pressure to the North keeps Northern areas dry and bright. NAVGEM too shows High pressure building NE across the UK linking to the Scandinavian version and ensuring a fine and dry spell developing for the weekend and into the start of next week. there would be some pleasantly warm sunshine in broken cloud conditions with light winds. Improvements for the NW are hinted at being temporary as fronts brush in closer with time in a more mobile SW wind here by early next week. ECM tonight shows High pressure ridging NE across the UK at the weekend with fine and dry conditions with temperatures inching up to average levels or a little above under a light westerly wind. Next week sees High pressure well established over the UK at the start of the week with warm and sunny conditions for all. Later in the week the High splits NE and west but still maintains enough impetus over the UK to keep a lot of dry and bright weather going with sunny spells. A few showers may develop later in the week as the slow pressure decline continues. In Summary tonight the weather looks set to turn more like Summer at the weekend and well into next week. There will be plenty of warm sunshine, patchy cloud cover and just light winds to lift the spirits of many for several days. As always I have to look at the negatives as well when posting these unbiased reports and tonight's there is a hint at where the UKMO has got their mid range outlook from as ECM shows a gentle leaking away of high pressure through next week with the re-introduction of showers soon after midweek. GEM also hints at a similar showery end to it's run in the South while NAVGEM introduces the chance of rain at the other end of the UK late on to. The message is make the most of it next week while it lasts as it might not be too long before things become less settled again.