Gibby

Good morning. Here is the morning report on the NWP output for midnight Wednesday December 18th 2013. All models show a strengthening SW flow across the UK this morning as a rapidly deepening depression moves NE towards NW Scotland. This is shown to swing an active front across the UK later today with severe gale force winds and heavy rain ahead of it. In the NW storm force winds could give rise to damaging gusts for a time tonight when colder and clearer conditions with squally heavy showers on a colder Westerly gale arrives later, lasting through tomorrow and into Friday. Later on Friday all models show winds backing SW and remaining very strong as milder and wet wet weather spreads back across the UK from the SW. This then slowly clears from the North over the weekend, last from the South as a wave delays any clearance here and gives rise to more heavy rain on Saturday down here. By Sunday all areas look to be in a broad and chilly Westerly flow with sunshine and squally showers. GFS then shows yet more mild, wet and windy weather at times in the run up to Christmas with further gales, especially in the North and West. Over Christmas itself the weather looks like reaching it's peak potential for storminess as very intense Low pressure crosses on Boxing Day with Christmas Day having been already wet and windy Boxing Day looks like it could be very stormy with severe gales and damaging gusts of wind across England and Wales coupled with heavy rain and blustery showers following. After Christmas and in the run up to the New Year little overall change is shown though things look likely to turn somewhat colder with some wintry showers on all hills and the chance of night frosts where winds fall light enough. By the New Year celebrations though the stormy and windy weather returns with gales and heavy rain sweeping East over the UK once more. UKMO shows Christmas Eve with deep Low pressure out to the NW with a gale force SW flow over the UK delivering mild and wet weather through the day. On Christmas Even night it looks like a vigorous trough would spread East across the UK with very heavy rain followed by squally showers and colder air. GEM today shows intense Low pressure near and over the UK on the approach to Christmas and Christmas itself with strong winds and heavy rain never far away from anywhere though this run does lessen the impact of damaging wind risk. NAVGEM today maintains a low pressure belt all the way from Scandinavia across to Newfoundland with strong winds and rain rushing across the Atlantic and over the UK frequently with a mix of showery weather with brighter intervals in between. There is also less impact of damaging winds from this model either this morning. ECM today shows a very unsettled run up to Christmas with rain and wind featuring for all. Over Christmas the weather looks very volatile with Boxing Day looking particularly troubling as a vigorous Low is shown to sweep across England and Wales with potential storm force winds bringing damage in places and coupled with heavy and persistent rain before squally wintry showers take over late in the day and in the days that follow. The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of average value temperatures but accompanied by very wet and windy conditions throughout the output this morning with the peak of the worst of the weather likely over the Christmas period. The Jet Stream shows the flow roaring over the Atlantic and the UK in the run up to Christmas before sinking South temporarily over the Christmas period itself before returning North over the UK towards the New Year. In Summary the weather will remain very unsettled over the entire period. Dry days will be at a premium with fast moving weather systems making for fast changing conditions in any one place with the basic ingredients of mild and wet weather alternating with colder and more showery conditions when some snow may fall over the hills, especially but not exclusively in the North. Of most concern is the potential for damaging winds to accompany these weather systems as they are extremely deep even by Winter standards and could give rise to some damaging gusts over the Christmas period itself. Longer term there seems little evidence of signs of a pattern shift even into the New Year with the Jet Stream crossing WSW to ENE across the UK at that point with High pressure remaining over Southern Europe and low to the North and NW.

Good evening folks. Here is tonight's look at the NWP output taken from the midday runs for today Tuesday December 17th 2013. The weather is shown by all models to be very unsettled and often very windy with gales and heavy rain sweeping across the UK tomorrow, especially later in the day and toward the NW where some storm force gusts are possible. Through Thursday the weather will turn colder and more showery with some wintry showers in the North with even a little wintriness to the showers across the hills and moors of the SW too at times. Then through Friday and the weekend the weather stays very unsettled and windy with further spells of heavy rain and it will become mild again across most areas with the North seeing slightly colder weather again on Sunday with showers. GFS then shows next week as increasingly stormy with potential for damaging winds and high rainfall totals giving rise to flooding issues in prone areas over Christmas. In addition colder air will migrate slowly across Britain at times with the risk of snowfall albeit mostly transient over hills and mountains from Christmas on. Little change is then shown in the pattern through the entire run which means little significant change in the weather type until after the New Year. UKMO closes it's run next Monday with Low pressure in the north Atlantic with a strong to gale SW flow with mild and wet weather extending NE across the UK early next week. GEM tonight shows a very windy and wet Christmas week with incessant spells of rain, heavy at times mixed with spells of colder and more showery weather with snow on Northern hills. NAVGEM also shows a wet and windy spell to start next week with some potentially stormy conditions surrounding a small daughter low crossing Southern Britain next Tuesday. ECM tonight shows a very disturbed Christmas with strong winds throughout next week with rain, showers and severe gales all featuring with Boxing Day looking likely to be the worst day with severe Westerly gales and cold weather with squally wintry showers across all areas. The GFS Ensembles again show no changes to the pattern that's been maintained for some time now from the GFS output. Low pressure and copious rain events coupled with strong winds remain the most important weather events over the coming few weeks with little chance of anything other than fleeting wintry showers on the hills and mountains in among the wind and rain. The Jet Stream continues to have the UK in it's sights as it crosses the Atlantic across the UK and way into Europe over the coming period. The sine wave pattern occasionally pushes it further North then back South as each opposing air mass passes over the UK. In Summary tonight at the risk of sounding like a broken record nothing has changed tonight. Day to day variations in the impact of storm systems is all academic as the genera message is one of wet and windy weather very frequently for all over the next few weeks with potential for some very powerful depressions delivering extremely low pressure and severe gale or storm force winds almost anywhere over the period. There is also scope for some colder polar air in the mix at times later delivering some sleet or snow to Northern and Western hills and mountains.

I take it to mean that snow could fall to any level in the North and on hills in the South at times.

Good morning everyone. Here is my take on the midnight outputs of the NWP (Numerical Westher Prediction) from the midnight outputs today Tuesday December 17th 2013. All models show a period of potentially stormy weather with the exception of today where the weather is rather quieter as a brief ridge of high pressure crosses from the West. Later tonight and from tomorrow everywhere the winds will become strong for all from the SW and very strong for some with severe gale or even storm force gusts for a time in the NW later tomorrow as a vicious Low is shown to sweep NE across NW Scotland. Rain, very heavy for a time will sweep East followed by a 36-48 window of colder weather with strong West winds and showers, wintry on all hills even in the South and giving accumulations over Northern elevations. Then on Friday and the weekend the weather becomes milder again with spells of rain and gale force SW winds though the colder and showery variety of weather could spill back across at least Northern areas for a time again over the weekend. The GFS operational run shows the run up to Christmas simply put as wet and windy with strong to gale SW winds and mild weather particularly in the South. Over Christmas itself the weather turns colder and there will be plenty of showers around for all areas, especially in the West driven in by gale force winds with snow on all high ground of the North and maybe in the South too at times. The very volatile pattern of rain followed by showers continues then up to and including the New Year with rain and strong winds alternating with colder and brighter spells with showers, wintry in the North. UKMO shows next Monday as a windy and wet affair as another wave disturbance runs quickly East in the near gale WSW flow bringing further heavy rain across Southern areas through the day followed by righter colder and more showery weather in the north and West later. GEM shows unsettled weather throughout next week, becoming deeply unsettled by Christmas with very low pressure values over the UK, strong Westerly winds and heavy rain and showers at times, increasingly falling as sleet and wet snow at times over high ground, especially over the Christmas period itself and in the North. NAVGEM also shows a wet and relatively mild start to next week before things become more alternating over Christmas itself between wet and windy weather to rather colder and showery conditions with strong winds continuing unabated throughout. ECM today shows a wet and windy run up to Christmas followed by a rather chilly and very windy Christmas with squally showers of rain and hail with sleet and snow over the hills. The GFS Ensembles continue to show no let up in the powerful Westerly flow across the Atlantic aided by a Jet Stream rushing East across the British Isles from the Atlantic. Hence periods of wet and windy weather is indicated from all members with an overall trend of maintaining average temperatures but very wet conditions at times for all. The Jet Stream is shown to continue in it's powerful state crossing the Atlantic and over the UK in the period up until Christmas. Beyond that it sinks somewhat South at times bringing much of the UK on the cold side of the flow with the increased threat of wintriness in the showers for the UK later in the period. In Summary the weather looks like remaining and becoming even more deeply unsettled throughout the forecast period this morning. All models show the potential of quite a wild Christmas with cold Westerly winds and wintry showers from which some places could indeed see a white Christmas though wide scale snowfall is not expected with the higher ground favoured for any settling snow albeit briefly. At other times severe gales could occur giving their own brand of travel disruption and when coupled with the likelihood of heavy rain with attendant flooding issues there looks to be plenty to talk about over the UK in the next few weeks weatherwise to distract observers from the family festive activities.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 16th 2013. All models continue the unsettled and often windy theme with High pressure to the South and very deep Low pressure to the North and NW. The next 24 hours will see the High to the South throw a ridge across England and Wales tonight and tomorrow with the rain belt here currently clearing away East overnight. Some mist and fog will develop with a fair day tomorrow before gales and heavy rain sweep back over the UK on Wednesday with colder still windy and showery weather on Thursday with wintry showers in the North. The end of the week and weekend sees strong winds and rain never far away from the UK as the status-quo synoptically is maintained though milder conditions will be featured more than the slightly colder and showery weather over the weekend. GFS then shows the run up to Christmas as very unsettled and often wet and temperatures will slowly lose their mild status as lower uppers associated with deep low pressure dig in over the UK. With a powerful jet stream still evident close to the UK some powerful storm systems look possible over the Christmas Holiday with severe gale or storm force winds possible with a lot of rain too at times mixed with spells of wintry showers, especially over the North. A short spell of colder northerly winds is shown by the operational tonight as we move towards the New Year but it is very short-lived as milder, windy and changeable conditions return over the New Year period with rain at times. UKMO shows a broad Westerly flow across the UK next Sunday with showers or longer spells of rain moving swiftly East in the flow with fluctuating temperatures ranging from rather chilly early in the day and milder by Sunday night as the next Low approaches. GEM also indicates a very volatile run up to Christmas with strong and often mild SW winds and spells of rain blowing through on the wind with some rather chillier and more showery conditions over the North at times. Christmas shows a very unsettled period with Boxing Day tonight looking particularly wild and wet with storm force winds and heavy rain followed by squally showers. NAVGEM too shows a very unsettled start to next week with a strong WSW wind delivering spells of rain in largely mild conditions. ECM shows deteriorating conditions next week with mild and wet weather on most days culminating a in colder and even deeper unsettled conditions over the Christmas period with spells of rain falling as snow at times over the hills along with the risk of severe gales with damaging gusts as surface temperatures fall close to or a little below average. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continual period of average uppers over the UK made up from members showing alternating days of milder then chillier conditions without ever becoming particularly cold. With regard to precipitation there is copious amounts of rainfall shown throughout the period and at times this could fall as wet snow at times as polar maritime air crosses over Britain on occasion, especially later. The Jet Stream remains the focal point for the continuation of this mobile and sometimes stormy setup. It continues to flow rapidly across the Atlantic and over the UK throughout the run with the axis slipping further Southward in Week 2 whilest losing none of it'ss strength and dominance. In Summary the weather remains unchanged tonight with only day to day variations within a very static patern of strong West or SW winds between very deep Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the South. The Christmas period looks particularly stormy with heavy rain, gales and even a little snow all possible over the holiday period with little noticeable improvement or release from the pattern even up to the New Year. So it's a case of watching the skies for wind, rain and gales rather than snow and ice that will occupy us weather observers over the coming 10-14 days.

Hi everyone. Here is today's account of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 16th 2013. All models show an unstable and relatively mild SW flow across the UK. This slackens off over the next 24 hours as a series of troughs finally clear the SE tonight. Then a 24 hour or so window of dry and bright weather with clear spells by night could give rise to the only frost of the week tonight in the North. Late tomorrow and Wednesday a new Atlantic storm winds itself up to the NW carrying renewed gale or severe gales to parts of Britain with rain sweeping East on Wednesday with colder and more showery air on Thursday when wintry showers could affect the North. On Friday, windy and milder air will return with more heavy rain with a rinse and repeat pattern of rain followed by showers looking likely over the coming weekend. GFS then shows the run up to Christmas as unsettled and windy with rain at times. Conditions will be relatively mild in the South but colder at times in the North with wintry showers in between the spells of wind and rain. Christmas itself will be very windy and stormy across the NW as well as becoming generally rather less mild. Periods of rain look likely on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day followed by squally wintry showers across all areas later on Christmas Day and Boxing Day with gale force Westerly winds. The final days of the year are then typified by further rather cold and unsettled weather with an increasing risk of snow at times in the North as winds turn more NW'ly towards the New Year. UKMO today ends next weekend on a windy and rainy note with an active and squally cold front crossing East next Sunday with heavy rain followed by rather chilly and showery WNW winds by night time. GEM today shows High pressure building over Eastern Europe next week with winds backing Southerly or even SE'ly towards Christmas. With Low pressure ganging up to the West the Southerly flow would be very unstable with heavy rain moving North across Britain and more slowly East in temperatures close to average. NAVGEM keeps strong WSW winds over the UK in the run up to Christmas with spells of rain alternating with showers, wintry in the North. ECM keeps things very mobile and stormy at times with Christmas Day looking very worrying as an unusually intense Low near the Hebrides through the Day would bring damaging storm force winds to the West and NW in a spell of very heavy rain followed by squally and wintry showers before things moderate somewhat over Boxing Day. The GFS Ensembles show a very turbulent period of weather over the next few weeks taking us through Christmas and up to the New Year. There is plenty of rain shown by most members throughout the period with the pattern having changed little 14 days from now. There is no indication of any fall off in uppers to levels that would give us anything more wintry to look at though in the colder polar maritime incursions over the next few weeks some short-lived snowy surprises could occur at times especially in the North. The Jet Stream remains very strong exiting the States and crossing the Atlantic on a collision course for the UK for this week and probably next too with little sign of any major shift of axis and strength to get us out of this very volatile weather pattern. In Summary it's more of the same today with plenty of wind and rain the talking points of the weather over the 2 week period. There is some output that worryingly suggests a powerful storm system near the UK over Christmas itself with the potential for disruption from strong winds and heavy rain over the period should it evolve as shown. However, rain and gales look like occurring with frequency throughout the period and it will be cold enough at times for some wintry showers as the storm systems recede away each time, only to quickly be replaced by milder and wet weather once more. GFS does show a more NW feed at the end of it's run prolonging a colder and more showery phase at the end of it's output but this is a long way out and to be honest there is little evidence of any pattern shift to what we have now when looking at those charts that go out to 10-14 days from now.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 15th 2013. All models show a changeable and sometimes wet and very windy spell of weather throughout the coming week. Day to day the weather will vary between wet, windy and mild days with tonight, Wednesday and Friday favoured for this weather type while later tomorrow, Tuesday and again on Thursday sees some colder conditions with dry weather for many on Tuesday while Thursday sees very showery weather with some colder weather in tow too with some temporary wintry showers on Northern hills. GFS shows an unsettled weekend to come with rain and showers in brisk and locally very strong West or SW winds with showers, wintry on Northern hills. A change is shown tonight though as High pressure builds north from France over the Christmas period and allows very mild and drier weather to become established for a time across the South with less rain for the North too before changeable Atlantic type conditions return to all late in the run with temperatures holding up very well with most rain in the North and West. UKMO closes it's run tonight with next weekend looking like being a wet and windy one as well as becoming very mild once more as a broad and strong SW flow is well set across the UK with troughs rushing through at times. GEM again tonight shows a very unstable Christmas period with strong winds and rain at times for all and again tonight the model indicates somewhat lower temperatures with time allowing some snowfall in the squally showers occurring over the Christmas period. NAVGEM also shows wet and very windy conditions next weekend and to end it's run with temperatures well up in association with the near gale or more WSW wind. ECM tonight also shows a trend towards High pressure building back briefly from the South in the few days up to Christmas before Christmas itself looks like a mild and wet one with rain followed by showers on a gale West or SW wind. The GFS Ensembles are edging towards another milder phase now as we approach and carry through the Christmas period although the operational version I described above was a bit of an outlier at this point. None the less there is still little sign from any member of anything remotely in the way of snow and ice in a big way. The Jet Stream shows the flow across the UK through all of this week before it has introduced a short shift North again as we move towards and over Christmas before returning South on a West to East axis late in the run. In Summary the indications are for the weather to stay relatively mild for the foreseeable future with plenty of rain at times with strong to gale force winds too on occasion. If anything tonight the prospects for a deeply unsettled and colder Christmas has receded somewhat tonight as High pressure builds back North towards Southern Britain from France in the days before Christmas before things turn mild, wet and windy again over the period itself. With pressure remaining High over Southern Europe winds will remain from the West for some considerable time aided by a powerful Jet stream. Day to Day differences in daily detail will change regularly over the coming days but there is little change expected in the overall pattern.

Good morning. Here is the report on today's midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 15th 2013. All models continue to show a very changeable and often windy period over the next week with winds strong and from the SW for much of the time with a notable exception on Tuesday when winds will be much lighter and temperatures as a result less mild for a time. From soon after midweek all models show a particularly deep Low to the North of Scotland carry gale or severe gale SW or West winds across the UK with a band of squally rain followed by sunshine and squally showers through Thursday and Friday with some wintry showers over the hills in the North. GFS then takes us through next weekend with a spell of milder and windy weather again with rain at times move swiftly NE across all areas in turn followed by slightly colder and showery weather once more as another Low moves East to the North of Scotland, and so the pattern continues over the Christmas period and in the run up to the New year. It may become very stormy over the latter part of Christmas and in the days that follow as intense depressions cross the heart of Britain with potential for storm force gusts giving local damage for a time. In additions the model shows rather colder conditions generally late on with some snowfall reaching low levels briefly in the North and the hills of the South too in the showery periods behind the depressions. UKMO shows next weekend with Low pressure over Iceland and a broad, mild and strong SW flow across Britain with gales for many and spells of rain in all areas, especially but not exclusively in the North and West. GEM today shows a mild weekend too next weekend as a broad SW flow carries troughs NE and delivers rain to all at times with temperatures well up to average if not above across the South for a time. Later the weather turns potentially stormy and somewhat colder towards Christmas with rain and gales alternating with wintry showers over Christmas itself. NAVGEM also shows relatively mild weather next weekend but with a very strong SW wind with gales and rain at times for all as troughs pass over quickly in the flow. Some slightly colder and more showery weather could affect the North at times. ECM maintains a very changeable run up to Christmas with rain at times with strong winds and relatively mild weather for much of the time though the risk of short polar maritime incursions of air with wintry showers increases across the North at least as we move towards and over Christmas where wintry showers could occur as a result. The GFS Ensembles this morning show compact agreement in temperature values at the 850 level very close to the long term average for the forseeable future. This indicates the odds of a white Christmas in any one place away from high ground is extremely remote with most places seeing rain and strong winds the main factors of the weather with average surface temperatures with little in the way of frost. The Jet Stream continues to blow very strongly in a NE direction over the Atlantic and the UK currently in a somewhat sine wave pattern as Low pressure ebbs and flows towards the UK. Later the flow changes it's orientation to a more West to East flow which carries it deeper into Europe and allows the chance of polar maritime air to dig deeper down across the UK in Week 2. In Summary the pattern remains locked as it is now for some considerable time. With deep Low pressure out to the North and NW there will be frequent bands of rain and strong winds for all with copious amounts of rain in places probably giving flooding issues in places before the end of the year. With winds never straying far from a West or SW direction there will be a lot of mild weather, especially across the South with little in the way of frost. However, incursions of cold polar maritime air will waft over Britain at times behind exiting depressions and this could deliver some upland snowfall at times especially later in the period. All in all though it's wind and rain that will make any weather headlines over the Christmas period rather than widespread disruption from snowfall with no real sign of a change in weather pattern in sight this side of the New Year.

Good evening. Here is my slant on the latest report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 14th 2013. All models show a very mixed spell of weather over the next 4-5 days. In essence there will be periods of rain for all in mostly mild conditions offset by an often strong SW wind, reaching gale or severe gale force at times towards the NW. On Monday and Tuesday a respite in conditions look likely across Southern Britain as High pressure moves quickly East close to the South of the UK with something of a ridge from it giving less windy and colder weather for a day or so. By midweek a new storm system to the NW will push troughs across the UK with strong winds bringing heavy rain to all with gales and severe gales over all areas once more. GFS then shows a colder and showery period with some wintry showers over the higher hills before further spells of stormy and wet weather storms in from the West on occasion. It looks like Christmas will be a potentially stormy period with heavy rain or severe gales more likely to be newsworthy rather than snowfall, though Northern hills will see some of this at times as temperatures fall back slowly to average and maybe a little below at times. UKMO tonight shows the end of next week with deep Low pressure out to the North and NW with a broad and strong SW flow across the UK. It would be becoming milder again after a colder showery few days before the end of the run. Fronts crossing NE would again bring heavy rain across all areas but most prolific in the North and West. GEM tonight shows fast changing weather patterns with rain and strong winds at times with temperatures never far from normal offset by the strength of the wind at times. NAVGEM shows a wet and very windy period to end next week and the weekend with strong to gale and locally severe gale winds at times with bouts of heavy rain and showers for all areas at times, wintry over Northern hills. ECM tonight shows deeply unsettled and occasionally stormy conditions on the run up to Christmas with copious rainfall for all areas at times with the most volatile weather likely towards Christmas. Colder conditions could accompany this period too when some wintry showers with snow in places might occur in amongst the spells of rain in some places over the Christmas period despite winds from a Westerly source. The GFS Ensembles tonight endorse universal support for a very volatile spell of winter weather to come. There is spells of heavy rain and severe gales with very low pressure readings at times later across the UK. Temperatures will become less mild with time and there will probably be some snow on hills though this will be far from the main talking point of the weather over the period overshadowed by the potential of damaging winds and heavy rain by most members. The Jet Stream remains extremely powerful throughout the coming few weeks with it's position gradually moving further South over the UK and then to the South in week 2. In Summary it's probably the most mobile and boisterous Atlantic pattern of weather we have seen for some years at this time of year with the prospect of a very windy and wet Christmas looking more and more likely day by day. While some colder air will be entrained in the strong airflow at times with some snowfall at times on Northern hills the main talking point at the end of the period should tonight's charts verify will be the amounts of rain and potentially damaging strong winds that could buffet the UK at times over the period. Interestingly there could also be some very low air pressure readings at times across the UK with some near record low level readings occurring over the UK at times.

Good morning. Here is the latest report on the 12 midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 14th 2013. All models show troughs of low pressure crossing East across the UK later today and tonight in a strong SW flow. The rain will be heaviest in the NW and here will be coupled with severe gale force winds for a time. Clearer air behind the fronts will bring a quieter spell overnight before tomorrow sees a re-run of today as another swipe from Atlantic fronts affect all areas in a mild weekend and a stormy one over the NW. Early next week sees somewhat less mild conditions for a ttimes as pressure builds near the South with later Monday and tuesday becoming dry and bright. By Wednesday the next powerful Atlantic storm will of wound itself up to the NW with troughs swinging East with wind and rain for all by the end of the day. GFS then shows a sustained period of Atlantic dominated weather with very deep low pressure to the North pushing active troughs and secondary Lows NE across all areas with spells of rain followed by sunshine and squally showers, wintry at times over the hills in the North. there seems little chance of sustained cold weather with a white Christmas unlikely away from higher Northern elevations. The end of the run leading out of christmas and towards the New Year looks unlikely at this stage to see any major pattern change from the generally wet and windy conditions in SW or west winds though it might turn rather colder from the NW. UKMO shows a blustery west wind behind a cold front next friday with a mix of sunshine and showers, wintry on Northern hills briefly before it looks like milder weather will return over the weekend as a new Atlantic system bears down on the UK from the West. GEM shows a mild and windy spell of weather following a briefly chillier showery period late next week. Winds will be gale force and with fronts straddling the UK there would be rain at times for all, always heaviest across the North with some drier and very mild periods in the SE. NAVGEM also shows a milder period next weekend as the cool and showery weather late next week becomes replaced by gale SW winds and warm frontal activity bringing rain NE across all areas next weekend. ECM maintains very unsettled weather with the potential for a viscious storm system crossing the UK next weekend with storm force winds for a time and heavy rain followed by a mild SW flow with rain at times in the north and West and still windy weather everywhere. The GFS Ensembles show a very unsettled and windy spell over the coming two weeks with a domination of Low pressure over or just to the North of the UK. After a mild start temperatures will moderate to average and perhaps slightly below average later with wintry precipitation developing over the hills at times. The Jet Stream continues to show a sine wave pattern in a very strong flow near the UK for the next week or so. there are still indications this morning that the flow may sink South of the UK in week 2 increasing the risk of colder conditions over the UK later. In Summary there seems little change in the overall windy and changeable theme of the weather over the entire period. the only main difference or trend seems to be that the South could become quite close to high pressure again over Europe for a time later next week decreasing the effects of rain and wind here and making it become quite mild again before it seems that it may well become wet and potentially stormy again over christmas week when Northern high ground could see some snow. Overall though the chances of a white Christmas remain quite slim though with Polar maritime air present close by a few may have a surprise.

Good evening. Here is the latest report from me on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 13th 2013. All models show a volatile period of weather to come with quickly changing weather from day to day all in association with rapidly deepening depressions moving quickly NE close to NW Scotland and a strong SW wind across the UK with gale and severe gale force winds in the NW at times. There will be some drier spells too, especially across the South as cold fronts clear East tonight and again tomorrow night leaving much of Saturday and Sunday daytime in the SE not too bad. Tuesday too looks an OK day in the South as transitory High pressure runs quickly East across Northern France through the day while the North stays breezy and showery with generally mild conditions for most areas for much of the time as well. GFS shows very windy and unsettled weather across all areas for the remainder of the run with gale and severe gale force winds at times with spells of heavy rain followed by squally and possibly wintry showers before a return to mild and windy weather returns again in oscillating fashion through the Christmas period and beyond. UKMO tonight shows a strong WSW flow later next week with rain and strong winds followed by more showery conditions when it will become a little colder with some snow on Northern hills in the showers. GEM maintains a strong WSW flow too from the end of next week until the end of the run with periods of rain and relatively mild conditions alternating with colder and more showery weather with some potent showers at times falling as snow on higher ground. NAVGEM is little different with very windy weather the biggest feature with heavy rain at times but with some chillier and more showery interludes in between. ECM is less keen on deep Low pressure reaching the South maintaining High pressure over Europe where it remains very mild. Over the UK winds would be strong and SW'ly. There would be spells of rain and strong winds, particularly heavy in the NW but much less so in the South and East where some longer drier spells look possible. Overall milder conditions should outweigh colder interludes which will be more likely to occur in the North. The GFS Ensembles show less range than usual especially for Northern locations where there is the most solid support for spells of wet and very windy weather with Low pressure rattling over or just to the North of the UK. Things are a little more varied in the South where some longer drier spells seem possible at times. Temperatures never look like being particularly low with most members opting for a green Christmas rather than a white one but this doesn't exclude the risk of some snowfall on Northern high ground at times. The Jet Stream shows the flow powering across the Atlantic and the UK for the reliable future. In the latter part of the forecast in the less reliable time frames it shows the flow slipping South of the UK and possibly meaning at least a chance of rather colder conditions developing. In Summary tonight the Jet Stream spawns some major storm systems out to the NW of the UK over the whole output period. How far South the influence of these storm systems come is unclear and it maybe away from the far NW that it will be just windy and wet rather than stormy and wet with some colder spells developing when snowfall could turn up abruptly. ECM shows Low pressure much further NW tonight with High pressure solidly holding firm over Europe steering the worst of the weather out to the NW. The rest of the output is much more determined to bring stormy conditions to all areas at times with some colder polar maritime air capable of delivering some snowfall at times, especially through the Christmas period. Which 1s right is yet to be determined in this very volatile unstable situation synoptically and time alone will tell.

Hi everyone. Back to normal today with my report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 13th 2013. All models show a more unstable but still relatively mild SW flow now establishing over the UK with a series of troughs crossing slowly East through today and again over the weekend. A brief chillier and brighter period tomorrow will be followed by the flow strengthening and pressure steadily falling with the risk of heavier rain increasing for all with time. Winds will reach gale or severe gales at times as we move from the weekend into the new week with a brief lull likely on Tuesday as a ridge crosses East over the UK, meaning a drier and less windy day is likely when it would feel a little less mild. GFS then ratchets up a very disturbed Atlantic with a lot of cold air coming out of the States and spinning up some powerful storm systems which lie to the North of the UK for some considerable time including the Christams period. This will allow some potentially very strong gusts of wind at times as squally bands of rain sweep West to East across the UK with showery weather following quickly behind. In the colder air there could be a surprise white Christmas for some as squally wintry showers are shown to affect the UK over the period with even the potential for some longer spells of rain, sleet and hill snow for a time in the South. Overall average temperatures look likely before it turns rather cold over the Christmas period. Little change in the unsettled and windy spell then concludes this morning's run. UKMO this morning closes it's run next Thursday with very deep Low pressure near Iceland with a strong and increasingly chilly WNW flow over the UK. Rain will sweep East early in the day and clear East to be followed by frequent showers with hail and thunder and some sleet or snow over Northern hills as it begins to feel colder, especially in the North. GEM today shows very unsettled weather towards the end of next week and on to the end of it's run with showers or longer spells of rain in strong to gale SW winds affecting all the UK at times. This run shows only brief colder incursions with showers before milder air sweeps back NE again. NAVGEM also shows a colder and more showery period towards the end of next week quickly replaced by a return to milder air with gales and rain at times by the weekend. ECM also shows a fast changing pattern later next week alternating between short showery and rather colder conditions with spells of rain on milder SW winds with only very short drier interludes in between in constantly strong to gale winds for many. The GFS Ensembles today show a sine wave pattern between milder and colder interludes from alternating air masses between tropical and polar maritime air indicative of a fast changing and mobile Westerly airflow. The operational described above was a colder option, especially over the Christmas period with most members keeping Christmas mild and wet with some heavy rainfall for many, especially in the South as wave depressions sweep through. The Jet Stream shows we have a powerful and changing little surge of energy crossing the Atlantic and the British Isles throughout the entire run keeping a very unsettled and potentially stormy spell of weather for many parts of the UK in the run up to Christmas and probably beyond. In Summary today we are staring down the barrel of sustained and quite powerful at times Atlantic driven weather setup with deep depressions centred close to Northern Britain for much of the time. It will take some time for the deepest unsettled and stormy conditions to affect the South in a big way as it's not until the middle of next week that the removal and influence of High pressure embers to the SE finally leaves the South. Thereafter all areas will see spells of very windy and wet weather alternating with colder and more showery air and yes there will be some snow at times over Northern high ground and even the chance of a little on Southern hills too if the cold air digs far enough South behind the squally cold fronts. Any such wintryness will be transient though as the next system would quickly sweep milder air back NE again with gales and rain. So all in all a typical wintry and potentially stormy period of weather is to come when the day to day forecasts from the output will change markedly run to run within a pattern that is likely to change little.

Hi folks. Just a quick summary for me before off to work. In Summary the models all show a potentially stormy and generally mild period in the run up to Christmas and probably over Christmas too with some rapidly deepening depressions spinning across the Atlantic and up to the NW of Britain with SW gale or severe gales and temperatures remaining generally on the mild side of average. In among the periods of rain some brighter and showery conditions will rush over at times and temperatures will fall briefly to average with some wintry showers over northern hills. But from this morning' output this looks the best we can hope for between now and maybe the New Year as the very strong Jet Stream continues unabated across the Atlantic and the UK supported by High pressure over Southern Europe.

Good morning folks. Here's how I see the 12 midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 11th 2013. All models show a slack Southerly flow with a continental influence in the SE making for a foggy start for many with a touch of frost under clear skies for others. Elsewhere the air will be maritime and milder with a lot of cloud and some rain in the far NW. Through tonight cloud will extend East to many areas and troughs will begin to make headway across the British isles from tomorrow changing the weather to more changeable with rain at times, principally on Friday and Sunday with a colder and drier interlude lasting through Saturday as a ridge crosses by from the West. GFS then shows all of next week with Low pressure out to the NW and troughs rushing NE across the UK in a strong to gale force SW flow. rain at times would occur everywhere and it could be very wet in the NW with copious totals through the period over hills and mountains. There will be less rain in the SE at first though even here towards the end of the run it will become very wet and potentially stormy at times as we move towards Christmas. A white Christmas looks unlikely away from Scottish mountains due to temperatures being near to or above average throughout. UKMO closes it's run today showing a Low pressure trough swinging East across the UK next Tuesday with some rain and wind for all before clearer and colder conditions temporarily spreads in from the West through the day. GEM is similar on Tuesday before an intense Atlantic depression spawns some powerful Low pressure areas which zip NE across the heart of the UK later with rain and storm force winds at times followed by squally showers on a strong Westerly breeze. Though technically quite mild in would feel cold in the strength of the wind and rain which in itself could be copious at times. NAVGEM this morning shows Low pressure well to the NW in a week's time but with a strong SW flow over the UK ahead of a squally trough moving it's way slowly SE across the UK through next Wednesday. It would remain mild for many through the day. ECM offers very changeable conditions next week with spells of strong and mild SW winds alternating with brighter and drier interludes when it would be briefly less mild. Overall the heaviest rain would be to the NW with the longest dry spells towards the SE. The GFS Ensembles today show complete support for a relatively mild and unsettled spell to commence this weekend and last until Christmas at least. With winds often strong and from the SW the wettest weather will be in the North and West but even the SE will see some heavy rain at times if this run is to verify. The Jet Stream remains very strong throughout the run and maintaining it's NE orientation firstly located NW of Britain but moving further SE over the UK and on towards Scandinavia next week keeping the UK under the influence of mild and string Atlantic winds throughout. In Summary today there is an unsettled spell on the way. As the High to the SE migrates further away several hundred miles the UK is able to tap into more in the way of Atlantic mobility and aided by a powerful Jet Stream there is the potential for some powerful storm systems to develop over the North Atlantic and the North of Britain over the period. Details differ between the output but the general message is plenty of wet and windy weather to come with the usual caveats that the heaviest rain will be in the North and West while the SE sees the best of any drier interludes while all areas are at risk of gales, severe at times. It will remain generally mild though a few days of colder weather may be thrown in at times behind cold fronts when temperatures return to average briefly.

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday December 10th 2013. All models show a Southerly flow over the UK which is very slack across the South with clearer skies allowing a colder night tonight across the South and SE with mist and fog forming in places later tonight and becoming dense in places and slow to clear tomorrow. However, in the days that follow the weatherbecomes more breezy as troughs push in from the West by Friday with some rain at times. Then over the weekend a NW/SE split looks likely with mild weather for all. The North and West will be at risk of some rain at times in a brisk and locally strong SW wind. In The SE though rather cloudy weather will deliver just small amounts of drizzly rain at times if any. GFS then shows a sustained period of SW winds and changeable weather with rain at times with some slightly colder and brighter conditions before SW winds return mild and wet weather in association with the next depression. UKMO shows a trough crossing East on Monday with rain spreading East across the UK through the day followed by drier and brighter or clearer conditions in the West later. GEM also shows a brisk SW winds with a mix of cloudy and damp conditions with rain at times, heaviest in the NW with drier and slightly brighter conditions where the SE sees the most prolonged drier periods with mild conditions prevailing for all. NAVGEM keeps the SE largely dry and bright while places to the NW sees much stronger winds and rain at times in overall mild conditions. ECM shows more unsettled conditions for all of the UK next week with most places seeing some rain at times with strong winds for some. The North would see the most rain though many Southern areas will not see a great deal with some drier spells at times. Temperatures are shown to remain close to average at worst over the period. The GFS Ensembles show little or no sign of anything remarkably cold in the upcoming period covered by the runs which in the case of GFS takes us over Christmas. Instead uppers look like returning towards average values as the more mobile and unsettled weather takes hold. The Jet Stream currently to the NW of Britain continues it's trend to shuffle SE to lies SW to NE across the UK as next week progresses. In Summary there is little change in the overall patterns tonight. As a result there is little to say that hasn't been said already which in a nutshell means the trend towards unsettled and reasonably mild weather continues with little sign of any wintry weather this side of Christmas.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday December 9th 2013. All models show a mild Southerly flow over the UK between High pressure over Southeast Europe and Low pressure over the mid Atlantic. The mildest conditions are shown towards the NW where Southerly breezes will be at their strongest with a little rain at times. In the SE drier continental air may filter across over the next 24-48 hurs bringing slightly less mild air and a greater risk of mist and fog overnight for a time. However, by the end of the week and into the weekend troughs make more progress across the UK bringing at least a short spell of rain and stronger winds for all before things dry up and settled down somewhat again over the second half of the weekend as High pressure is shown to build back North to some degree from the South. GFS then shows a very mobile pattern next week and on until Christmas with the details irrelevant. With a train of Low pressure crossing quickly over or just to the North all areas can expect wind and rain and there will be quite a lot at times on Western upslopes. Winds will often be strong but always from a mild SW'ly direction continuing the no risk of wintry weather going for all areas. UKMO today shows a return to this weeks synoptics early next week with High pressure refusing to move away from NW Europe with Low pressure out to the NW with a broad and very mild SW flow carrying rain at times to Northern and Western areas while the South and East maintain a lot of dry weather. GEM today continues it's trend from yesterday with mild SW winds blowing strongly across all areas next week. Troughs and smal depressions in the flow will move rapidly NE over the North at times with some fast moving spells for all with the heaviest rain as usual towards the north and West with some drier interludes more likely towards the SE. NAVGEM this morning holds the main thrust of Low pressure further to the NW and as a result High pressure remains close to the South and SE and although a few weak troughs deliver a little rain in the South at times the main share of Atlantic rain will be across the NW with mild conditions persisting everywhere. ECM shows the weather becoming more deeply unsettled and often wet through the middle and end of next week with Low pressure troughs digging South across the UK delivering spells of rain and showers in blustery and mild SW winds. Things are shown to feel less mild later as winds switch more towards the West or even a little north of West at times when showery interludes could include a little wintriness over Northern hills. The GFS Ensembles today show a few more dry days before things steadily turn more unsettled and often wet in the North and West but less so in the SE. This pattern is very indicative of a normal winter pattern of deep Low pressure to the NW and High to the SE with troughs crossing NE over all areas at times, most active towards the NW. Upper temperatures will fall off from current levels to nearer average ones later but at the surface some very mild days could be enjoyed in the SE Especially and to the lee of high ground in the NE. There looks absolutely no sign of anything remotely wintry from any ensemble member other than the odd one or two this morning. The Jet Stream maintains it's trend to sink SE over the next few days to be running still in a NE direction across the Atlantic but this time over the UK allowing Atlantic lows and fronts to make deeper inroads into the UK. The trajectory though remains totally unbeneficial for getting any sort of cold anywhere near the UK due to persistent High pressure over SE Europe. In Summary the trend towards more unsettled but still very mild weather is gathering some pace this morning. However, it looks unlikely that the SE will see too much in the way of rain but the North and West could become quite wet at times. Winds will also become more of a feature for all areas, blowing from the SW strongly at times with gales or severe gales in places and maintaining temperatures average or above for all. As we move inexorably towards Christmas day by day the chances of anything Wintry over the UK on the big day look distinctly remote from today's trend and synopses.

Good evening everyone. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday Deceember 9th 2013. All models continue the theme of dry and fine weather for the remainder of this week as High pressure is maintained to the SE and Low over the Atlantic. However, NW Britain will be the exception to this with cloudy skies from troughs just to the West with outbreaks of rain at times along with strong winds. It will be mild here. Further South and East it will be brighter with some pleasant sunshine in between cloudier spells and by night clearer skies could give rise to patchy frost and fog in places, slow to clear by day. By the weekend things may begin to turn somewhat more unsettled for rather more of the UK with the East alone staying dry. However, it's here where the models diverge a little in how this transpires. GFS then sets up a very mobile pattern for the second half of the run with rain at times for all. With winds permanently from a positions between South and NW the temperatures will remain quite respectable for December with little chance of significant frost, fog, sleet or snow. UKMO closes it's run for next Sunday with a very deep Low near Iceland with a stronger and strengthening SW flow with most areas having become more changeable with some rain at times, especially in the North and West. Temperatures would remain near to or a little above average for most. GEM tonight brings a change too next weekend with some rain ahead of a decline into potentially quite stormy conditions as intense depressions cross quickly NE over or just to the NW with very wet and windy conditions developing fr all, especially but not exclusively to the North and West. Temperatures would remain close to average but it would feel chilly in the wind and rain next week. NAVGEM also shows a period of more unsettled weather at least for a time with some rain likely for all as winds freshen markedly from the West in response to low pressure crossing East to the north of Scotland. Temperatures look like being close to average overall. ECM tonight shows a much more Wintry looking set of charts for next week as High pressure influence to the SE is lost in preference to deep Low pressure covering the North Atlantic. Very unstable WSW winds would bring spells of rain and showers, some heavy later with thunder and hail as somewhat colder conditions take hold with temperatures close to average at best. Winds would be starong at times too with gales in the North and West. The GFS Ensembles show a steady decline towards more average December levels from later this week with rain developing at times in all areas with time though amounts in the South will be largely suppressed. The Jet Stream tonight's most notable attribute is the strength of it's flow as it powers NE to the NW of Britain through this week. It then shows a continued trend to bring the axis further SE to run NE over the UK next week hence the incursion of more mobile Atlantic weather type with rain and showers and storm systems to the NW of the UK. In Summary tonight there is definitive trend that things may begin to change from the weekend. While we are unlikely to move towards anything wintry in the way of snow and ice we will probably get out of the rut of dry and mild weather as many of us will see this week into something more interesting with wind and rain becoming much more widespread through next week along with some strong West or SW winds at times. Some models do show the effects to the South as still quite limited while others suggest the South will also share in some heavy rain and gales at times. It will be interesting to see how this growing trend develops or subsides again over the coming model runs.

Good morning. A new week but will the weather be any different as we continue the run up to Christmas 2013. Here is my visualization of the output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 9th 2013. All models continue to show a period of benign weather for most areas of the UK away from the NW where it will be cloudy and windy but mild with rain at times through the coming week. Towards England and Wales the weather remains more settled and with a SW wind backing towards the SE for a day or two midweek it will become less mild for a time with a greater risk of mist, fog and a touch of overnight frost slow to clear for several days. However, by the end of the week and certainly through the weekend SW winds will bring milder air back across all areas and as winds increase generally the risk of some rain increases as weak fronts are shown to cross the UK by some output delivering occasional rain for some, even in the South. GFS shows this well next weekend with one such band of rain crossing early in the weekend and another on Monday with the general trend to change the orientation of the wind flow to more of a West or NW directon as High pressure builds from the SW this time. Eventually this is shown to cover the UK with a marked drop in temperature and delivering much colder nights with widespread frost and fog problems but some crisp winter days with plenty of sunshine. The customary collapse of the High SE is shown right at the end of the run with milder SW winds slowly returning. UKMO shows a weak front crossing East at the end of the week with a little rain for a time before the pattern resets somewhat though there would be more wind and troughs look like having a greater impact on many areas as we move towards next week in a mild SW flow. GEM gradually shows things becoming much windier next week with the North in particular shown to experience gales and heavy rain at times as small depressions zip NE. Rain will reach the South too at times where it will stay mild but windy here too. NAVGEM too recedes High pressure a little right at the end of the run but the pattern remains the same with High pressure to the SE and Low to the NW with a mild SW flow carrying troughs NE across the North and bringing these areas rain at times and there are hints that this may reach the South too with time. ECM shows signals today of a much more mobile pattern eventually showing up later next week. Before we get there though there are many days of benign and quiet weather with mild SW winds just bringing the occasional weak trough East across the South next weekend while the NW sees more in the way of wind and rain throughout. Low pressure then looks like digging in closer to the WNW of the UK with troughs making inroads to more areas, but it should stay reasonably mild. The GFS Ensembles are a little better this morning with the trend at least the right way for more average levels of temperatures, both aloft and at the surface to show up. It may come at a price of wind and rain at times but never much in the SE. The Jet Stream continues to orientate itself NE across the Atlantic to the NW of Britain for some considerable time to come. The only change of note is likely to be a shift towards a more West to East orientation across the Atlantic and the UK at least for a time in Week 2 but there is no major signs of a major shift that would deliver anything cold to the UK as of today's output. In Summary then there remains little to offer in the way of colder weather for the UK as a whole from this morning's output. With pressure high to the SE and the South later, West or SW winds are likely to predominate throughout. Through this week it looks like there may be a few days of chillier air across the South with fog and frost possibilities but these look like being swept away by the weekend by an increasing SW breeze and a little rain at the weekend. The trend thereafter appears to be a slow progression to more changeable weather with rain at times in a fresh to strong SW flow later next week.

Good evening. Here is the latest report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 8th 2013. All models show a mild and moist Westerly flow backing more Southerly over the next few days with mild and cloudy conditions across the North and West with occasional rain in the NW and a fresh breeze. Over the South and East a backing wind will bring slightly colder and drier air off France and this will allow things to become a little less mild especially at night when there will be some mist and fog patches in light winds, which may as a result be slow to clear in the daytime. Late in the week stronger winds should blow the fog away and maintain milder weather for most areas with some rain edging deeper into Western and Northern Britain by the weekend. GFS then shows slightly more changeable conditions in the extended part of it's run with troughs pushing East across the UK briefly with some rain for all before drier air returns from the West with temperatures closer to the seasonal normal by the end of the run. UKMO tonight show no changes next weekend with a SW flow over all areas. The flow will strengthen markedly over the NW as a deep Low swings North to the West of Scotland bringing rain and strong winds for a time. In the South and East the weather will stay dry and potentially brighter with less in the way of fog by then as winds are shown to have swung more to the SW with mild air for most. GEM shows absolutely no change in pattern throughout the entire run so that in 10 days time we are still looking at an extended period of mild SW winds with a little rain in the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas see fine weather continuing with some brightness at times and temperatures remaining on the mild side of average for all. NAVGEM shows a rather stronger SW flow across Britain with a weak trough having carried a little rain East towards the end of the week though wholescale changes at the end of the run look a long way away still. So it would mean mostly rather cloudy and mild weather with any rain most likely towards the NW. ECM tonight shows a trough approaching the West in a week's time with stronger but mild winds ahead of a spell of rain for all before things cool down somewhat as we enter the new week as winds switch NW briefly. The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of mild uppers for the next week before they slowly decline to more average levels but with winds in the West any cold weather looks highly unlikely. Rainfall will be little if any in the South until late in the run with no excessive amounts anywhere. The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained to the NW of the UK moving in a NE direction before it slips a little further South over the UK later but still flowing in a NE direction maintaining mild and strong SW winds across the UK. In Summary tonight there remains no change in any output tonight in the continuation of generally mild and settled conditions across the South and East and rain at times in the North and West, all in association with a pattern of High pressure to the SE and Low pressure over the Atlantic and a SW flow over the UK. There are just mere hints that things might turn a little more unsettled and more breezy for some other areas for a time in Week 2 but it looks unlikely that would lead to a pattern change any time soon after.

Good morning everyone. Here is my interpretation of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday December 8th 2013. The General Situation. All models show a pattern of High pressure over France with a Westerly flow of winds across the UK, strongest in the North. Through the coming week the trend will be for winds to back more towards the SW and then South with even milder air affecting the North and West in particular through the coming week with some further rain at times towards the NW as Atlantic fronts brush by. In the SE there are still some signs that it may be a little less mild than elsewhere with a drift off the Continent for a time midweek and mist and fog could be present on some nights between now and Thursday. Towards the end of the week though High pressure remains stubbornly to the SE and mild SW winds will affect all areas with further rain in the NW which may extend further SE next weekend in what could become very windy weather in the NW. GFS then shows next weekend as windy and mild with rain at times. This extends into week 2 with the trend for winds to veer more towards the West and later NW drawing colder air South and East across the UK behind successive depressions and cold fronts with temperatures returning to normal and a little below in the North. With rain at times likely for all by then some of this will fall as snow over Northern hills before the end of the run. UKMO for next Saturday maintains High pressure down over SE Europe with a broad and mild SW flow over Britain with troughs out to the West delivering some rain to the North and West of the UK while the South and East remain largely dry but cloudy. GEM today keeps High pressure over Germany next weekend very much in control with just local variations on temperatures and cloud cover the only likely items of interest in an otherwise benign pattern. The High does show signs of weakening for a day or so before intensifying again near SE Britain at the end of the run with a renewed period of fine weather but maybe a little colder with mist and fog possible in light winds. NAVGEM is resilient to showing any major changes either as it ends it's run with mild SW winds bathing the UK in dry and rather cloudy weather though a rogue weak trough could deliver a little rain for a time next weekend and rather more frequently over the NW. ECM does also show a rather windier spell for all next weekend but still potentially very mild in a strong SW breeze. Occasional rain could occur almost aywhere as weak troughs pass NE but this becomes restricted to NW Britain later as High pressure remains in total control stretching in a belt from the Azores to Southern Europe by early next week and lockning the UK in a mild SW flow for some considerable time to follow Day 10 if verified as shown. The GFS Ensembles this morning show little change to that being shown in previous runs. There seems little support to exit the UK out of this locked pattern of mild SW winds which only slowly lose their very mild uppers status late in the run. However, a drift to average upper levels is unlikely to make much difference down at the surface as SW winds just become more unstable with rain at times for all likely later with winds still blowing for the most part over the UK from a mild Atlantic point. The Jet Stream this morning remains at odds with delivering cold weather with the flow running NE strongly between Scotland and Iceland. Over the coming week this flow moves even further North for a time before the continuing trend to slip it back further SE to be crossing NE over the UK in Week 2. It's orientation does change slightly late in the run to a more direct East flow over Britain as High pressure collapses over Europe and relocates near the Azores, Southern France and Spain. In Summary this morning there remains little sign of change in conditions over the UK for the next few weeks. In such conditions it is unlikely that anywhere above mountain top location will see a white Christmas this year if this morning's charts verify. The UK seems locked in a South or SW flow with High pressure persistent over SE Europe bathing the UK in potentially very mild and cloudy air. Some local low level cold inversions may affect the South briefly midweek but other than that cold remains on hold for now. Rainfall amounts will be small in the South though the NW could see quite a bit of rain at times as troughs brush past in a strengthening SW flow here later in the week. There are then small signs of this sinking SE to affect many areas through Week 2 with rain at times for all should it occur but it looks unlikely that such a change would result in anything very wintry soon afterwards as High pressure is shown remaining locked strongly over Southern Europe and the Azores.

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday December 7th 2013. All models continue to show few changes in the general synopses over and around the British isles. In general Low pressure will lie well to the West and NW while High pressure dominates over much of Europe. As a result the weather will remain fairly benign with in general a lot of cloud and fairly dry weather with rain and drizzle on occasions across the North and West of Britain. Equally in Southern and Eastern areas things may become rather misty and a little colder next week as winds back more to the SE for a time with some fog patches. GFS then brings an increase of wind from the SW late next week with more changeable weather developing steadily with rain at times and some drier and brighter periods. With winds never far from a SW direction things will remain largely on the mild side of average though it may become rather breezier at times later in the period. UKMO closes it's run with High pressure over SE Europe with a stronger SW flow developing over the UK. as a result it will stay quite mild and often cloudy and there could be some rain developing over most Northern and Western areas by this time next week. GEM also shows an increase of wind across the UK from a SW direction next weekend. There would also be a series of troughs close to NW Britain at times giving rise to quite a bit of rain over the hills in mild weather conditions. There would be little if any rain in the SE apart from a day or two ahead of High pressure building back North from the South across Southern areas at the end of the run. NAVGEM is mild mild mild all the way with a Southerly flow over the UK all the way and with less frontal incursion from this model then things would remain largely dry. Things in the South and SE could be a little less mild than elsewhere but it would hardly be cold considering the time of year. ECM tonight shows the fairly mundane spell of weather persisting over the next week with just variations of wind direction and cloud amounts determining any differences in the weather felt on the surface. as a result temperatures could fluctuate down for a while in the week to come across the South before rising for all later at the expense of a marked increase of wind to gales in the NW and the increased risk of rainfall extending slowly SE across many Northern and Western areas by the start of the week after next. The GFS Ensembles show a sustained dormant spell of weather with mild upper air conditions overall though maybe a little chilly at the surface over the South for a time. The chances of rain in the South are pretty non existent over the coming week and even thereafter no great amounts of rain are shown. The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the NW of Britain over the coming week. there are tentative signs of it slipping further SE on it's SW to NE axis through week 2 though this is outside the reliable time frame at the moment. In Summary there remains little change to report in the weather conditions to be expected over the coming two weeks to that shown on previous recent output. As a result we can expect largely mild weather with a SSW flow of winds and though a fair amount of dry weather is to be shared the North and West can look forward to some wet and windy weather at times too especially later. It still remains hard to see where any meaningful change in the general synoptic pattern is likely to occur other than a mild SW flow with rain making greater ingress of Low pressure into the North and West of Britain at least.

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's rather shorter than usual report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday December 6th 2013. All models through Week 1 show a Westerly flow over the UK at first following a warm front moving East over the North with High pressure close to Southern England. Over the coming days this changes little drifting slowly down into France maintaining relatively mild and rather cloudy weather across the UK with a band of rain and snow clearing East out of Scotland overnight tonight leaving all areas in the same air mass with Western ocasts and hills at risk of drizzle at times with any breaks more likely to the East of hills and in the South. Through next week there may be a period of slightly colder conditions across the South as winds back SE briefly before SW winds look like taking hold again towards the end of the week with mild conditions generally and some rain to Northern and Western extremities. In Week 2 all models that go out that far maintain the status-quo with High pressure to the SE of the UK with SW winds and mild conditions and occasional rain in the North and West with very little signs of change as far as the models can see tonight. The GFS Ensembles continue to show mild weather over the UK for the foreseeable future with few exceptions from the members to this rule. Though dry through Week 1 there seems a slow trend for blocking to the SE to recede somewhat to allow Atlantic troughs and stronger winds to make more progress down over the UK later in Week 2 with some rain for all. However, temperatures will remain distinctly mild feeling despite this. The Jet Stream continues to run NE well to the NW of Britain steering all rain bearing fronts and depressions around the Northern flank of the European High and onward over Northern Scandinavia. There are just the merest hints of it slipping down towards the UK in a NE direction towards the end of week 2 which is reflected by the GFS trend of more rainfall for more areas at the end of the run. In Summary tonight there is nothing to say that hasn't been said already with the Northern arm of the Jet being steered strongly NE well to the NW of Britain around the periphery of a European High which remains dominant throughout the coming two weeks. It's position shuffles around a bit with a slight difference to this morning in that it now looks that less time involving a continental feed is likely from tonight's output suggesting that any cooler and misty days in the South towards midweek could well be short-lived with mild SW winds soon returning with attendant cloud cover but precious little rainfall. As I look towards the position in two weeks time there is little to suggest currently that mild weather won't continue for some time to come after the expiry of the runs, possibly out to Christmas.

Or from another angle. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif Not very inspiring to me but we can forever hope.

Hi everyone. Here is this morning's look at the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 6th 2013. HEADLINE: No Cold weather in sight. All models show a High pressure area drifting ESE towards Northern France. This provides a Westerly flow to bring milder Atlantic air across the UK on a Westerly breeze with a warm front on the leading edge carrying a band of rain and drizzle across the UK, preceded by a little snow on Northern high ground. This moist West flow then remains in place for the next two to three days with some troughs giving further mostly light rain at times in the NW while many other areas stay largely cloudy, relatively mild and dry. GFS then shows High pressure inching a little further East next week allowing winds to back South or SE and this will have the effect of keeping Northern areas mild and cloudy with some drizzle over hills and coasts while Southern areas become somewhat less mild at times as drier continental air feeds across the channel at times, especially to the SE with some night fog and a touch of frost possible but some daytime sunshine too. However, despite this it can hardly be described as cold and milder air will filter back across at times, especially later in the run when the North and West turn rather windier with rain at times as troughs to the North and West move closer in on the mild SW wind. UKMO today shows High pressure retreating somewhat further away East next week with Low pressure to the West strengthening the Southerly flow for a time with troughs just to the West possibly carrying some rain North up the Western side of the UK then NE across Scotland. Many Eastern parts should stay dry and possibly bright with the mildest conditions likely in the West and North. GEM this morning keeps a very mild South or SW flow going across the UK for all of next week and weekend as High pressure stubbornly remains near Germany feeding mild or at times potentially very mild uppers up across the UK from the South. While not always very mild at the surface normal value temperatures would be achieved for all in the Southerly breeze and the potential remains for some very mild conditions to develop if sufficient breeze mixes out the air to the lee of high ground. NAVGEM too keeps quite a brisk breeze from the South or SW and with this mixing of the air all areas should be on the mild side, very much so at times and though dry for the best part of next week fronts would move into Northern and Western areas by next weekend with rain at times. ECM today also shows High pressure maintained to the East or ESE and therefore the pattern will be the same as the other outputs in that a period of benign and quiescent weather is maintained with a lot of cloud and mild conditions on a light Southerly drift. It may feel a little chillier in the East and South at times as a drift from the SE moves across the channel with some chillier nights giving rise to the possibility of fog patches but overall the pattern remains locked solid at Day 10 with any rain only likely in the far NW. The GFS Ensembles today show rock solid support for two weeks of mild and generally settled conditions around High pressure slow moving over Europe. The only trend later maybe the ingress of Atlantic fronts moving deeper into the North and West of the UK late in the run on stronger SW winds but even then the South is shown to avoid much of any rain. The Jet Stream remains locked in a pattern that will keep the UK relatively mild for the foreseeable future. It is shown to blow strongly in a NE orientation across the Atlantic and on towards Northern Scandinavia preventing any chance of significant ridging North of the European High and therefore not only keeping the UK mild but much of Western and Northern Europe too. In Summary this morning this morning's synopses reminds me of the mild Winter's of early in the millenium years when much of the time we were bathed in similar synoptics to that of today. Now I'm not saying that this will be the course of this Winter but it certainly will be for the next couple of weeks. We have the Jet Stream to blame which is orientated totally wrongly for any chance of cold for the UK for some considerable time to come. It is also too strong at the moment in it's relentless progression NE over the Atlantic towards Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. This prevents any chance of any meaningful ridging North of the European High towards Northern Europe and therefore prevents anything moving West on it's Southern flank to usher in change. With this strong Jet to the NW it also maintains High pressure in situ so though not technically a blocked situation there is little room for change in synoptics quickly. So as it stands for the time being we have to try and predict local small scale changes day to day on whether cloud breaks enable temperatures to rise to very mild levels or whether days of anticyclonic gloom, mist or fog prevail over Eastern and Southern parts at times keeping things at least a little cooler. Rain will be a rare commodity overall restricted to the North and West on occasions.

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday December 5th 2013. All models show the severe storm to affect the North and East today abating overnight as the storm moves East over Europe. many coastal areas are at risk from flooding at the high tides overnight. Elsewhere the weather quickly calms down as a ridge of High pressure moves across from the West. By tomorrow a warm front crosses East around the Northern flank of High pressure over carrying a band of rain across Northern areas and increasing cloud for all. By the weekend all areas will be under much quieter weather with fine and cloudy weather with temperatures close to the seasonal normal, a pattern that remains in place for the early part of next week. GFS then shows a sustained period of tranquil and benign conditions with light to moderate winds from between SE and SW with a NW/SE split developing later with any rainfall restricted to NW areas while the South and East look like staying largely dry throughout the run. Temperatures would be mild for most but with some colder surface air across the South at times with some areas of mist and fog possible. UKMO closes it's run with High pressure away to the East and ESE with a slack South or SE flow over the UK with fine weather predominating across the UK. The mildest conditions will be in the NW whereas Southern and SE Britain may experience less mild conditions with some mist and fog at times and a touch of frost should skies clear by night. GEM tonight has dropped it's wintry scenario of this morning with a movement towards the other models in maintaining largely dry and cloudy weather with the 'will it' 'won't it clear' being the determining factor on how things feel at the surface. NAVGEM also shows a mild and breezy Southerly feed across the UK next week with High pressure out to the East. It will be dry and the mildest weather will be likely in the West with somewhat colder and less breezy weather possible towards the East at times. ECM tonight shows High pressure to the East and SE building across the UK with quiet and benign conditions with a lot of cloud overall. However, the chance of some clearer weather at times will increase the risk of fog dramatically and some frost may also occur locally should this occur. Late in the run High pressure does migrate to Scandinavia briefly with some rather chillier conditions for a while but with the Jet flow still riding over the top it only has one place to go and that is shown in the end days of the run as it sinks South into Europe, though for the UK in this run colder air may well hold on with some frost and fog by night, especially in the East. The GFS Ensembles shows the general trend of maintaining High pressure based weather across the UK for the entire run tonight. Any rain is most likely towards the NW with very little elsewhere as High pressure is biased to be positioned over Southern Britain or to the SE. The uppers are almost universally well above average across the UK through the entire run tonight once the current cold blip dissolves over the next 48hrs. The Jet Stream shows a continuous train of a NE flow crossing the Atlantic and up to Iceland and northern Scandinavia keeping the UK well and truly on the warm side of the flow with next to no change shown tonight over the coming two weeks. In Summary the weather looks like becoming locked in a pattern that could stick around for a couple of weeks and maybe until Christmas. The main culprit is a strong Jet flow which becomes anchored in a strong and NE moving conveyor belt across the Atlantic up to Iceland and across to Northern Scandinavia over the coming two weeks. With High pressure over Europe and maybe Southern Britain the weather is likely to become stuck in a rut with the only differences day to day being the amount of cloud cover and whether it becomes mild or not. It will not become very cold anywhere if tonight's chart verify but if skies clear and a continental drift to the wind moves across the South then widespread fog problems could arise along with a touch of frost. As a result of this a slow clearance through the day of fog would result in cold conditions in places. On the other hand if the wind shifts more to the SW which is indicated by some output mild conditions could develop with temperatures well above average at times. We'll have to see how it pans out day to day but all in all there is little excitement for weather observers to look forward to tonight.