Gibby

Good morning folks. Here is my latest look at the outputs from the NWP dated from midnight on Wednesday January 8th 2014. All models are pretty clear on the course of events between now and the start of next week with rather drier and less dramatic weather than of late with exceptions. Today shows a slack Westerly flow across the UK with a new Low developing to the SW and moving NE across Wales tonight with rain and strong winds across Southern and Western areas early tonight extending NE to all of England and Wales and clearing out into the North Sea tomorrow with clearer and drier weather moving across from the West leaving a ridge of High pressure over the UK. On Friday another front is shown to cross all areas with a lighter band of rain. Late in the day a more substantial ridge is crossing East giving a largely dry day for many areas lasting 36-48hrs for most. However, later on Sunday the weather slides downhill again as new Low pressure pushes East off the Atlantic into the UK with rain moving steadily across the UK late in the day in a strengthening SE wind. GFS than shows a dramatic change to colder weather early next week as Sunday's low disrupts across the UK and slides South while pressure continues to build across Scandinavia. As a result early rain will increasingly turn to snow first in the North but to southern areas too by midweek in cold Easterly winds. On the operational run it doesn't last too long before the Atlantic pulls milder air back down from the North later with a return to blustery and changeable conditions with average temperatures towards the back end of the run. The GFS Ensembles mostly support a change to colder weather next week which could give some snowfall in places next week. Though uppers average below the mean then throughout the rest of the run some degree of lessening of cold is shown later with the incidence of more mobile cool zonality type weather following the Easterly incursion next week. UKMO shows next Tuesday with disrupting Low pressure as a developing High pressure block continues to develop in the Norwegian Sea. The Low pressure will affect much of the UK with a lot of rain from slow moving troughs turning to snow in places with time over the hills. the chart shows unwelcome conditions likely in the flood stricken areas of the SW early next week. GEM today shows a very wintry spell developing next week and doesn't look dissimilar to UKMO at 144hrs. After a wet and cold start strong Easterly winds are shown for much of the rest of the week and no doubt snow will feature widely at times and not just in the North or East. NAVGEM keeps Low pressure over the UK next week and as a result the weather will stay relatively milder but still very wet for many with further copious rain events mixed with more showery weather with snow possible on northern hills in strong winds. ECM this morning also look much like UKMO and GEM at Day 6 but differs from GEM in that it shifts the High from the Norwegian Sea SE quite quickly to cut off the cold feed from all but the far South by next weekend. Nevertheless, it will be a much colder week next week with several days of cold easterly winds and slack weakening Low pressure over the South providing the catalyst for some snow events as the cold Easterly feed drags cold Continental air west over Britain at least for a time. The ECM 7 to 10 Day Mean Charts show strong support for a Scandinavian High pulling colder continental air across the UK early next week. With Low pressure down to the SW a trough structure would most likely exist across Southern and Western Britain with rainfall possibly turning to snow in places early in the week. On this run the trend moves away from a prolonged cold spell by Day 10 as most members favour falling pressure over Scandinavia and a subsequent weakening of the pattern with a slow shift towards pressure becoming low again to the NW later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is undergoing change currently as the flow becomes more diffuse over the next few days before settling on a course Eastward over Southern Europe with High pressure supported to it's North. Later in the output it strengthens again over the Atlantic with some support for it to overide the Scandinavian High later subsequently pushing it SE and re-introducing Low pressure across the Atlantic in a NE direction later. In Summary this morning's output has accelerated the progress of developing cold weather over the UK very quickly next week. Most models support Low pressure down to the SW and more importantly a strong build of pressure over Scandinavia. As a result it looks odds on that most of the UK will see a period of cold Easterly winds with some snow next week and nowhere looks immune. In among all this we mustn't forget the risk that these synoptics will do nothing to alleviate flooding issues across the SW if troughs get hung up across these areas be it rain or snow. Frosts would become much more widespread than of late. The longevity of this spell is open for debate at the moment as there is some support that Scandinavian High pressure may be pulled away SE late next week by a rampant Atlantic jet flow riding over the High but this is a long way out and is certainly subject to change.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 7th 2013 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure to the North of the UK filling over the coming 24-48 hours as pressure rises gently over the UK. In the South and SE an overnight passage of a front will create some more unneeded rainfall across SE England overnight and more widely over England and Wales tomorrow night. Winds are shown to be much lighter than of late for all. On Thursday and into Friday a drier and brighter spell is likely before some rain returns on Friday night into Saturday, again in turn followed by a drier phase over the weekend with rain and wind spreading steadily North and East over the UK. GFS then shows next week starting unsettled and wet with rain at times under Low pressure. Later in the week the system providing the rain slides away SE with High pressure developing from the NW as a High pressure belt stretches from Scandinavia to the Azores which then sinks further South and East to a point South of the UK with Westerly winds returning for many by the end of the run lifting temperatures back to average levels from the colder figures and no doubt threatening rain in the North. The GFS Ensembles are a very mixed bunch with a very wide spread between members with many showing values close to average while some show colder than average ones with the upper hand going to the slightly colder ones tonight with precipitation scattered about throughout the period indicating Low pressure fairly close by from all members at times but mixed in are some quieter anticyclonic weather in between times too especially later. UKMO shows Low pressure over Northern Scotland with a wet and windy period sweeping East over the UK with showers to follow in rather colder air. GEM tonight turns things much colder for all once disruption to the trough moving into the UK early next week takes place. Rain would move across all areas for a time before it sinks away SE and is replaced by very much colder and dry conditions as High pressure eases down from the North with widespread sharp frosts by night. As the rain clears there could be a period of snow which could accompany the change to colder air chiefly in the South. By the end of the run the pattern slips South as an Azores High allows for milder air to topple back down over the UK late on. NAVGEM keeps any High pressure influential to Britain towards the SE steering Low pressure across the UK in West or SW winds with things drying up a week from now as a ridge from the High to the SE covers the UK. ECM tonight is apalling for dry weather fans as the UK becomes the battlegrorund between mild Atlantic winds and cold continental air developed over Europe through next week. The net result in the 5-10 day period is thoroughly wet and windy weather again as Low pressure becomes blocked over or close to Southern Britain. By Day 10 the filling Low near the SW may allow cold continental air to waft West across Britain beyond the end of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Ensemble Mean Charts show the situation much the same as this morning with the risk of Low pressure troughs ganging up close to western Britain with fairly persitent rainfall possible. While the scandi High is still an option from many members it's progress to a full blow Easterly still looks a long way off at Day 10 and not progressing from Day 9. However, having said that the charts are both still quite promising. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast from GFS shows the flow remaining active across the Atlantic ridging and troughing North and South at times with a growing trend to keep the flow on Southern latitudes over Europe which could support High pressure over Northern Europe. In Summary the weather looks set to turn colder next week. The nature and the process in the way that this pattern develops could be quite troublesome as it could lead to a lot more rain as troughs and Low pressure gang up on the UK from the West, blocked by a developing High pressure to the East or NE. There is still a lot of water to pass under the bridge (forgive the pun) before we get a clearer picture of how the pattern unfolds in the longer term but my own thoughts would be that a pattern change is likely to something more interesting for cold fans later in the month with a strong chance of a Scandinavian Anticyclone developing sometime soon which I believe would be the first step towards meaningful snowfall chances too this winter.

I think the main talking point of note from this morning's output should be the concern of more disruptive rainfall likely next week which is certainly more likely than disruptive snowfall. I really do admire you folks on here for continually scanning the model outputs for that elusive cold snap and the prospect of snow. I used to be much the same in my younger years. Nowadays I take the weather as it comes and enjoy it all equally, that way it has become a year round fascinating hobby and not just a hobby of bitter disappointments when the expected snow and ice doesn't materialise which let's face it is more often than not in the UK. Still keep it up guys I enjoy your banter when I get in from my workshop each evening

Good morning. Here is the report on today's NWP output for today Tuesday January 7th 2013. All models show the filling of the deep Atlantic depression to the North of Scotland continuing a pace with less windy weather developing through today. The frequent showers will become less widespread today and the process will continue overnight. However, all models show a disturbance running close to SE Britain tonight and a larger disturbance tomorrow bringing heavy rain back across Southern Britain later. Then after all models show a Westerly flow on Thursday and the rest of the week and start to the weekend with some further showers. Sunday then shows a ridge of High pressure bring a decent day to end the weekend. GFS then shows next week as another very unsettled and potentially wet week as further Low pressure moves East then SE over the UK, each bringing their own spells of potentially heavy rain followed by showers in blustery winds with the end frames of the run showing a colder push from Europe to the SE briefly on the exit of the last depression of the run. The GFS Ensembles show a continued pattern of only small changes in both pattern and temperature values with the only trend of note is for the winds to be a little less notable and temperatures to be a little less mild. With regard to rainfall however there is still scope for disruption due to further heavy rain at times from this morning's ensemble set. UKMO today closes it's run next Monday with a Low pressure centre over Iceland pushing an active Atlantic trough slowly East across the UK with copious rainfall for all through the day. GEM also shows a very unsettled week next week as a series of depression commencing on Monday move close to the West of the UK with heavy rain on several occasions under blustery West winds before they turn North or NE late in the run with rain turning to snow in places as temperatures would take a sharp dip. NAVGEM today shows Low pressure up to the NW with fronts crossing NE over the UK with further rain at times to start next week. ECM next week shows very changeable conditions with pressure relatively high to the East and repeated attacks from the Atlantic sending bands of rain repeatedly into the UK from the Atlantic before becoming slow moving over the UK and sliding away SE. Rain could well be heavy at times and cause further disruption should this run verify. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts show a very worrying trend for those afflicted by fronts. There appears good support for High pressure to set up shop to the East of the UK with troughs ganging up on the UK to the West or over the UK. This could mean slow moving bands of rain affecting the UK throughout the end of next week exasipating flooding issues. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows the long lasting strong West to East flow of late breaking up somewhat over the coming days before something of a reset takes place but at the European end the flow is forced South to lower latitudes in response to higher pressure to the East or NE. In Summary this morning it is not a pretty sight for those looking for drier weather as after a brief lull for some at the weekend next week looks again very disturbed and potentially wet but under different type of synoptics than of late. This time higher pressure looks like being maintained to the East of the UK with the Atlantic still quite active. This then has the effect of stalling the rain bearing fronts coming into the West and consequently giving rise to much unwanted rainfall through the week with conditions cold enough for some snow on Northern hills at times. In the models longer term trends it look as though undercutting of the lows in a more SE fashion over Europe may develop and if this verifies it maybe that in 10-14 days that we may finally see something more seasonal from the East become more of a threat for the UK.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Monday January 6th 2014. All models show a deep depression to the NW of the UK filling slowly over the next 48 hours as it moves slowly NE ending up to the North of Scotland by this time on Wednesday. In addition frontal rain will flirt with the South at times over the next 48 hours enhancing the flooding risk even further in the South. However, strong winds will become less of an issue with time with only moderate Westerly breezes by Thursday with some further rain running West to East across the UK. By the end of the week pressure will of risen strongly to the SE of the UK with drier and quieter weather likely for all for a time. GFS through the weekend shows quiet and fine weather for many before the unsettled weather returns from the West early next week with rain bearing fronts crossing the UK from the West in what would be if verified another round of deep depressions, intensely so at the end of the run with strong to gale winds again and heavy rain and flooding issues likely again. The GFS Ensembles look very unsettled and changeable again tonight with rain at times with strong winds too and little likelihood of much in the way of drier weather after the breather of later this week. UKMO for next Sunday shows High pressure declining away SE early next week as troughs of Low pressure move in from the Atlantic with further unwanted rainfall following the drier interlude early in the weekend. GEM shows an interesting period from next weekend as it's operational shows Low pressure moving in late next weekend with further rain before the whole system slides SE allowing pressure to rise strongly to the NW of Britain. This would enable winds to swing NE and Low pressure to reside near the Meditteranean with the cold wind giving rise to some wintry weather with snow in places in 10 days time. NAVGEM declines High pressure away SE too after the weekend as Low pressure to the NW sends troughs back NE over the UK next week with renewed rain, this time probably heaviest towards more NW areas rather than places further South and east. ECM tonight shows Saturday as the best day of this week when it should be dry and fine under a transient ridge of High pressure. It isn't long before Low pressure troughs swing back in from the West before sliding SE and giving rise to plenty of rain again in the process. then towards the end of the run a new Low over the Western Atlantic send another active trough slowly East across the UK hitting a High pressure block slowly declining across Europe. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show strong signals for the majority of members of the ECM pack to favour a blocking High over Scandinavia at this time point with the UK lying in a SSE flow with Lower pressure troughs close to the West. If this majority verifies then we can look forward to some colder and drier weather but if the fronts to the West come in too close then we could all end up with a lot of cold rain and perhaps some snow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast tonight shows the current flow imploding in a few days time before becoming diffuse and unclear with regard to favoured position before the pattern resets with an incredibly powerful surge of flow shown racing over the Atlantic towards the UK late in the run. In Summary tonight the pattern is taking a backwards step towards maintaining rather unsettled weather moving into next week and beyond. The Atlantic is shown to weaken considerably later this week with at least a window of drier weather likely towards the weekend before it looks increasingly possible for wet and windy weather to return later though hopefully not to the extremes of recently. There is still a nugget of hope for cold lovers though as both GEM and ECM go for some trough disruption next week meaning an awful lot of cold rain for many as Low pressure slides SE and opens the door to something rather colder behind it ala GEM. However, despite the principal being the same from ECM the Atlantic proves too strong from this run to set up cold Easterlies as the next Low pushes troughs back in from the West on Day 10.

Just had a biblical storm of rain and hail from a very local storm that tracked up from the SW. 4mm in 5minutes and large hail to boot with gusts approaching 40mph. No thunder though.

Good morning one and all. Here is today's report from the NWP for the period from midnight last night to 21st January lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show an intense depression West of Scotland which will continue drifting slowly NE to a position North of Scotland by midweek, having filled considerably by then. The weather pattern as a result of this will be similar for all with strong to gale force SW winds slowly decreasing with time but carrying showers and occasional longer spells of rain, these particularly to the South and SE towards midweek. Some of the showers will be heavy and thundery with hail but quite scattered at times. Temperatures in this strong SW flow will remain close to average and rather mild at first in the South. GFS then shows a trough crossing East on Thursday carrying the last of the showers over and away East from this current system. However, following a transient ridge and attendant dry weather the rest of the week sees further troughs cross East at times in the slacker Westerly flow with further outbreaks of rain at times in average temperatures. Through next week High pressure moves up close to the South and SE for a time with a fine and dry inerlude for many before unsettled, sometimes windy and changeable conditions return later with rain and showers for all in average temperatures though a little snow is possible on Northern hills in the more showery periods. The GFS Ensembles seem to agree with the overall message of the operational with some variability between the members of the set with a few going cold at times but a fair few staying milder than average too leading to an overall consensus that things are most likely to remain Atlantic based with rain at times and temperatures never far from average. UKMO today shows next Sunday with High pressure to the SE having declined with a small area of Low pressure developing to the SW bringing another hindrance to the drying up process as it looks like it would send cloud and rain North and East across Britain later in the day. GEM this morning brings some slow moving fronts across the UK next weekend with some rain before finally pressure rises and High pressure forms close to SW Britain late in the run with quiet and benign conditions developing in average temperatures while northernmost areas stay rather more cloudy under a Westerly breeze. Slight night frosts could develop across Southern Britain later. NAVGEM continues it's unsettled vein right out to the end of it's run making next weekend unsettled and breezy with rain at times as yet another Low pressure crosses East over the far North with Westerly winds for all. ECM this morning shows High pressure over France next weekend moving NE to Scandinavia later at the same time as a deepening Low moves North over the Eastern Atlantic sending troughs East into the UK. Some fine relatively mild and dry conditions early next weekend would be replaced by wet and colder weather as the troughs having moved in from the West disrupts over the UK and slides away SE later with pressure then rising again. The run ends with the Jet Stream flattening the Scandinavian High and we end up with what looks like a mid latitude block forming close to Southern Britain later next week with dry and fine weather with overnight frost and fog patches, especially towards the south and SE. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart show a better overall outlook for those looking for cold with the trend or bias for High pressure to the East of the UK or indeed Scandinavia looking quite high next week. Fronts are likely to be attacking any European attack from cold and this could result in slow moving fronts over Western Britain later with more unwanted rain and possibly snow if enough undercutting can take place. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast is for the current flow to subside in a few days with the flow arching North strongly over the Atlantic while breaking up, lighter and more diffuse by next weekend. In Week 2 the genral theme is for it to blow more variably in track and speed though still close to the UK at times late in the run. In Summary today there is not a lot of change with just a shuffling about of outcomes shown between the runs. It still looks very unlikely that any significantly colder weather is likely over the period covered by this morning's runs however the ECM mean Charts for next week aren't at all bad for the cold fraternity providing we could tap into some cold continental air. However, what this morning's do show is an increased chance of drier if not dry weather next week giving flood stricken communities a chance to mop up as the Atlantic train of Low pressure becomes weakened and de-railed due to High pressure building to the South or East of the UK. Some frost and fog look like becoming possible next week over the very wet ground principally towards the South and SE but unless the models have the position of the High wrong then daytime temperatures outside of any fog look like remaining quite reasonable unless ECM's mean can be pushed towards cold further.

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs of the big 5 weather modules for today Sunday January 5th 2014. All models show a large Atlantic storm crossing ENE slowly over the Atlantic and towards an area North of Scotland by midweek. Several bands of squally rain will cross East overnight perhaps with hail and thunder before things settled into a showery WSW flow through tomorrow, Tuesday and Wednesday with the threat of more persistent rain for a time midweek in the South as a wave feature runs East close to Southern England. Pressure will rise soon after midweek with some welcome dry and bright weather, particularly in the South and East though the North and west under a slacker Westerly pressure gradient will see a continued risk of rainfall though these areas will share in the less windy conditions too. GFS then shows a very changeable pattern through the remainder of it's run with things turning distinctly unsettled and potentially stormy at times again towards the end of the run as deep Low pressure and westerly gales re-establishes itself. Temperatures will stay near to average or marginally below at times in the wake of passing Low pressure. UKMO for next Saturday shows Hiigh pressure slipping slowly away to the SE with a slack SW flow developing under slowly falling pressure with the advance of Atlantic fronts towards the West late in the day with potential rain. GEM tonight shows a quieter spell late next week before Low pressure regains control, sliding SE over the UK in response to High pressure over Scandinavia. The UK would see spells of rain followed by wintry showers with things becoming rather cold in the North towards the end of the run although probably only briefly. NAVGEM tonight also shows High pressure to the SE with attendant drier conditions down here although troughing remains perilously close to Northern and Western areas threatening further rain at times towards the end of next weekend. ECM today shows tentative signs still of drying the weather up from next weekend as High pressure moves close to SE Britain and maybe further towards Scandinavia later. However, the Atlantic is not dead and the threat of Atlantic fronts into the west and NW at times later remains very real. Quieter and less windy weather though could lead to frost and fog patches under any clearer night time skies later. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of lower pressure to the west of Iceland and generally higher pressure towards Europe. However, there is no definitive suggestion of which pattern is gaining momentum with something of a stalemate developed between colder continental air over Europe and milder Atlantic rain bearing troughs and attendant rain close to the West from many members. It is an indication when strolling between the 9 and 10 day mean charts that changes and trends are painfully slow and hard to call. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles have reversed this morning's trend of the somewhat colder trend and have returned a very ordinary set tonight with rain at times throughout the run with a very Atlantic based pattern. There are a few anticyclonic members in the mix too offering something rather drier if not especially cold. The GFS Jet Stream Flow shows the current flow becoming much disrupted by the end of this week with multiple fingers of flow scattered around the North Atlantic and UK before a tendency for it to feed strongest towards a position South of the UK in a split flow develops through Week 2. In Summary tonight GFS is not a pretty sight maintaining a very unsettled and Atlantic based pattern with plenty of rain around and wind too later. It's ensembles are not wonderful either with very average temperature values. However, all other output does suggest a break from the wet and windy theme of recently though with the Atlantic fronts and Lows perilously close to our Western shores at times we may well have to be patient for any major shift towards a more wintry flavour than that on offer of drier and more useable weather with night frosts and fog a possibility in the South and East.

Good morning everyone. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs of the NWP for toeday Sunday January 5th 2013 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models shows another very deep depression crossing slowly ENE across the Atlantic to reach an area to the North of Scotland as a filling feature by Wednesday of this week. The next 72 hours will be characterized by a spell of rain crossing East today to be followed by a couple of days of blustery and heavy showers, especially near Southern and Western coasts but some drier spells in the more sheltered East. Winds will be strong to gale force SWl'y but should subside towards midweek with temperatures holding well up to average of not a little above in the South. Soon after midweek all areas will become quieter with light winds but with slow moving troughs caught up in the slack flow over the South which could give rise to further copious rainfall, not helpful at all to the current flooding situation. GFS makes less of this feature gradually drying things up after Thursday as High pressure glides east over France. A Southerly breeze develops in it's wake and it isn't long before low pressure once more develops close to the West, moving North-East and renewing rain events to all areas in blustery winds. This format retains it's place then for the remainder of the run with strong winds again shown later with just brief drier spells under transient ridges over the South. Temperatures look like holding largely close to average. UKMO this morning closes on Saturday with High pressure to the SE and light winds over the UK and a light SW flow over the North. A front looks like being straddled across Southern Britain in light winds meaning a slow moving area of rain could lie close by with largely cloudy skies while the North has the best chance of seeing somewhat brighter conditions. GEM is the driest model run this morning with events later in the week showing a steady drying up process with all frontal activity removed by the weekend as High pressure develops over Scandinavia. This migrates slowly South and West late in the run to be positioned close to NE Britain by Day 10. The weather would turn cold and frosty with some sunny spells but a cold and raw SE wind would likely develop over many areas though it would likely stay largely dry. NAVGEM shows slack pressure late in the week and over the weekend over the South with slow moving troughs again running the risk of creating wet conditions over the South before the pattern looks like becoming a little more changeable and mobile again from the West following next weekend. ECM today also shows slack pressure towards the end of the run and with upper troughs caught up in the slack airflow it looks unlikely to be guaranteed dry with the South most at risk of some prolonged rain while the North sees the best chance of brighter conditions with a little more wind pushing troughs through rather quicker. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart today is better news for cold fans as it now supports in a bigger way High pressure over Scandinavia and a slack Southerly feed the most likely bias over the UK. Low pressure has a much weaker bias to towards the NW this morning. With a continental feed injected over the UK there I would think be good support from the members of it's ensembles for very much colder conditions to arrive after next weekend. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles do show a dip this morning below average in Week 2 with some unsettled and mobile weather still thrown into the mix by some members. There are rather more members though approaching the -10C value later in the run with a wider spread from all the members averaging a bias towards the cold end of the range. The Jet Stream Forecast shows the lengthy spell of West to East movement over the Atlantic and Southern Britain coming to an end later next week. The flow looks like disrupting late this week and particularly at the European end appears to be forced to lower latitudes indicating the possibility of High pressure over Northern European latitudes. In Summary there is a change in the weather on the way although changes involving the cessation of rainfall may have to be more patient. From the middle of the week gales will be a thing of the past but some stubborn slow moving troughs could keep things potentially wet at times in the South until the weekend. From thereon we have a split with GFS and NAVGEM going the way of returning unsettled and windy conditions with yet more rain in the second week while UKMO and ECM operational shows a High pressure to the SE with an Atlantic drift over the NW where some rain would become likely again later. The more interesting slant this morning is shown by the ensembles which especially from ECM show their greatest indicator yet of pressure becoming High to the East and NE and throwing much colder weather our way as a result. The margin for error is very fine though and we need to see more cross model support before shouting from the rooftops. Nevertheless, it looks like at last the Atlantic may be running out of steam for a time so all areas look almost guaranteed of becoming rather drier and certainly much less windy and with the natural risk of cold weather occurring from Europe increasing later in the Winter it is from these predicted weaker Atlantic synoptics that cold spells can develop quite quickly should things fall into place correctly.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 4th 2013 lifted from my website http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a brief respite from recent rains overnight as today's rain finally clears Eastern and Central parts this evening. Tomorrow then shows a freshening SW flow again ahead of troughs of Low pressure returning rain to all areas through the day, heavy at times. Winds will also become strong again with gales in exposure but less problematical than recently. Following the troughs the parent Low moves gently NE towards an area North of Scotland between Monday and Wednesday filling as it does. All areas can expect showers or further rain at times with decreasing winds and temperatures close to average. GFS then shows the second half of next week with troughs continuing to move West to east across the UK in lighter winds than of late but with still sufficient energy to hinder any drying up of recent flood waters. Through the second week a more definitive period of dry weather develops as High pressure forms close to the NE of Britain, sinking South later. Dry and frosty weather would develop for most before a deterioration in conditions creeps down from the North through the final days of the run. UKMO tonight shows High pressure over France with a WSW flow over the UK with troughs moving slowly East in the flow carrying some rain for all in average temperatures. the heaviest rain will be more confined towards the NW. GEM tonight shows the unsettled embers of the recent wet period finally dying next weekend as High pressure develops over the UK with frost and fog becoming much more likely over the UK rather than wind and rain, at least for a time. NAVGEM shows a continuation of at least some Atlantic influence into next weekend as slow moving fronts cross the UK giving rain for quite a time as they go. ECM tonight continues this morning's theme of gradually drier and brighter conditions developing from next weekend as Low pressure gives way to High pressure shown tonight close to or over Southern Britain. No doubt frost and fog at night would be commonplace with fine and bright days to compensate in temperatures by day being close to average outside of any persistent fog patches. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart tonight shows Low pressure biased between the members to be most likely to be in the vicinity of Iceland and Southern Greenland and High or higher pressure equally biased towards the Azores to France and Central Europe. This would favour a clamer spell of quiet weather with light winds and these most likely from a SW direction more than anywhere else. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of rather changeable conditions over the extended period with more than a hint of an Atlantic influence still though rainfall will be greatly suppressed on recent levels with less gales likely too. Temperatures continue to look very average for January due to High pressure located towards the South or SW of the UK. The Jet Stream continues to blow West to East across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and France for a while longer. From later next week it disrupts more with a trend to drift it further North over the Atlantic before turning SE down over or just to the East of the UK later in the run. In Summary tonight the trend towards drier and fine weather continues as High pressure develops closer to the UK finally ending or reducing the effects of the recent monsoon like rainfall as any Low pressure troughs become much weaker or steered much further towards the North and NW of the UK. How long such an improvement lasts remains an open question but to my eyes with the Jet flow riding over the top of developing High pressure it would appear that the High pressure areas could well eventually sink away South.

Good morning everyone from another wet morning in the West Country. here is the report from the NWP output from the midnight runs for today Saturday January 4th 2013, lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. All models show an unstable SW flow across the UK with a disturbance carrying rain steadily North and East across Southern and Eastern areas through today followed by more showery conditions later. This showery flow will continue overnight though a small ridge is shown to cross giving rise to a drier window when a slight frost might develop in places. Tomorrow will see a very deep Low in the Western Atlantic throwing troughs well ahead of it over Britain later tomorrow with rain and strong winds followed by showers taking control later tomorrow and on Monday. On Tuesday and Wednesday this showery them continues as all models show the parent Low filling to the North of Scotland. Secondary features could give rise to more prolonged rainfall in the South towards midweek. Through all this period temperatures will remain largely close to the seasonal average but it could be just abut cold enough for some snow on Northern hills today and again towards midweek. GFS then shows further troughs of Low pressure trundling Eastwards across the UK later next week in a slacker Westerly flow. With High pressure to the South these fronts could become hung up over Southern areas at times with further prolonged rain here while the North turns cooler and showery on occasion. Then later in the period a period of mild Southerly winds with rain in the West becomes replaced by further Low pressure over the UK at the end of the run with rain and showers for all. UKMO next Friday shows a lobe of High pressure stretching from the Azores to Biscay with all of the UK in a slacker West to SW flow with troughs moving across from the West and maintaining the risk of rain or showers at times, especially in the North with temperatures remaining close to average. GEM shows pressure building to the SE later next week with a mild Southerly flow drifting up across the UK as Low pressure areas set up shop over the Atlantic. It isn't long before troughs arrive from the West from these to affect principally Western and Southern areas then extending further North and East later. NAVGEM closes it's run with a slack pressure gradient over the UK in a Westerly flow with slack High pressure to the South. Troughs would cross slowly East over the UK from the West at times, each giving rain at times though less heavy and frequent than what we have seen of late. ECM today has removed it's Scandinavian High and subsequent threat of colder conditions and replaced it with High pressure to the SE and South gradually taking control. Rain on a front will eventually clear the SE late next week ahead of drier and quieter weather with overnight mist and fog and touches of frost likely with breezier and cloudier weather in the North and West with occasional rain. The GFS Ensembles show a resilient pattern with very little change in temperatures over the whole period and a very Atlantic based pattern. All areas look like continuing to see rain at times with little in the way of frost, fog, ice or snow. The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the reasons for the maintained unsettled Atlantic bias to it's track this morning as it continues to feed across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain and France through the period although some disruption is shown for a time next week which ridges it further North over the Atlantic for a time. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart this morning shows some support for something of a pressure rise over Scandinavia which should at least dry things up for the UK over time. Low pressure is shown biased towards Greenland keeping the UK under something of a trough and SW winds which would probably mean some rain at times most likely towards the North and West. I would suggest average temperatures the most likely result though frosts could become more frequent in the East closest to High pressure wherever it may be situated over Europe. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif In Summary this morning we have some differences of opinion on what happens once our next week depression fills up and moves away. Most models support further troughs for a time moving in off the Atlantic to continue occasional rain up to and including next weekend. There is also reasonable support for pressure rises to the South and SE with a more Southerly feed around Low pressure in the Atlantic keeping the rain risk further towards the North and West while ECM become quite anticyclonic later though with some troublesome weak troughs to clear out of the SE first whereas GFS keeps the Atlantic monsoon going throughout. There isn't much indication from anything I have seen today to suggest a shift towards cold and wintry weather which I know cold weather fans are becoming desperate to see but for those that are looking for something drier, less windy and still reasonably mild for the time of year then your wish may be granted in a week or so time with as always in the UK a few caveats.

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 3rd 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. All models continue the very unsettled and disturbed spell of weather with the showery SW flow being complicated by morning by further troughs moving up from the SW late in the night with further heavy rain at times in squally winds. Tomorrow shows this troughing moving North over the UK with showery west winds returning to the SW later. On Sunday a short window of better weather is the precursor to further strong winds and rain later in the day and into Monday in association with another powerful Winter storm winding up to the West and NW of Scotland on Monday. There will be sunshine and very squally showers from the word 'go' in the SW returning later in the day to all areas. Then over Tuesday and Wednesday all models show pressure rising slowly as the Low pressure to the North fills but with a trough close to the South further prolonged rain may affect the South for a time towards midweek while showers largely continue elsewhere. GFS then shows further unsettled weather later next week and through next weekend as less significant troughs bring bands of rain Eastward across the UK at times in average temperatures. Then later in the run the Atlantic flow strengthens again with further big storms possible to batter the UK with rain and gales by the runs end in continuing temperatures close to average. The GFS Ensembles show little change from previous runs with the majority of members maintaining largely average temperatures for this time of year with Westerly winds carrying rain and strong winds at times across the UK though on this set not to the severe extent of recent events. UKMO tonight closes it's run next Thursday with a showery WNW flow ahead of a brief ridge of High pressure covering the UK in sunshine and showers with further unsettled conditions out to the West in the Atlantic poised to affect the UK again late in the week and into the weekend. GEM keeps things very unsettled again all the way out to the end of its run in 10 days time. With west and then SW winds there will be further rain or showers at times in blustery winds less strong than recently. NAVGEM shows a belt of Low pressure still across Northern waters with a Westerly flow still blowing across the UK albeit much lighter than of late. There is still scope for occasional rainfall though the South could become rather drier as pressure has built stronger to the South and SE later next week. ECM shows a very complex pattern setting up later next week as a gentle shift towards colder but still unsettled weather is well on the cards on tonight's operational. High pressure builds over Scandinavia and with a Jet flow moving South some undercutting is permitted throwing the risk of rain, sleet and snow coming up from the SW late next week with a colder, less windy period likely to last through the weekend and into the following week. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to look as this morning heavily biased towards Low pressure more likely to be towards the NW of the UK and High to the South with a Westerly flow still indicative over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow retaining it's current strong East trajectory over the Atlantic towards France or Southern Britain over the next 5 to 7 days. Thereafter it tends to more Southerly levels over the second period of the run indicating the threat of colder weather, though this more likely from Polar maritime air from the NW rather than the East on this run. In Summary there remains a lot of support for the weather to remain largely unsettled across the UK over the next few weeks with sustained dry weather looking unlikely. However, the strong winds of late should decrease to more modest and average levels given the synoptics as shown. ECM looks much more encouraging for cold weather lovers tonight with it's operational showing a Scandinavian High and undercutting Low pressure towards the SW throwing the risk of lower temperatures and the chance of snowfall to some areas even in the South in among the rainier spells. Whether this is a one off or is expanded upon over subsequent runs is open for debate but it shouldn't be discounted as the Atlantic train, though not lying down becomes less of a ferocious beast with time creating better opportunity for pressure to rise either to the South or North-east later.

Thunder here in Radstock too. Went black as night but with a yellowy hue. Eerie.

Good morning everyone. Here is my website report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 3rd 2013. Transcript lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. All models continue to show a powerful storm system close to NW Britain with a windy SW flow with showers across inland UK and severe gales at the coast and a risk of coastal flooding especially in the SW. This pattern continues well into tomorrow before a slow cessation of wind strength is shown but further troughs moving up from the SW tomorrow could enhance rainfall once more with snow possible over Northern hills. On Sunday a brief window of better weather early will evaporate as all models show yet another storm system out to the NW to start next week with renewed severe gales and heavy rain later on Sunday transferring into showers through the start of next week with winds decreasing steadily with time. GFS then shows showers continuing in lighter winds midweek before a drier interlude gets displaced by troughs of low pressure advancing East slowly across the UK with further rain. This sets the tome for a further spell of changeable and sometimes wet period though severe gales are less likely. It could well turn rather colder too with snow becoming a factor across the North at times as winds turn more ESE here with a Jet stream which ends up to the South of the UK. The GFS Ensembles look very ordinary though with little evidence of significant cold in our corner of the world. With rain events scattered about throughout the period the likely trend is for a continuation of Atlantic driven weather though effects from excess wind and rain could lessen with time with some members offering some quieter anticyclonic interludes with some frost. UKMO today shows the period following midweek next week as one of sunshine and showers as Low pressure fills close to the North at the same time as receding away East. Pressure is reluctant to rise significantly over the UK though and it looks only a matter of time before the next Atlantic fronts exiting the West Atlantic make landfall towards the UK by the weekend. GEM today shows Low pressure gradually moving away East out of the UK from midweek taking a lot of the showery rain with it. A quieter colder period is then shown with a frost risk before the Atlantic brings further troughs into the UK from the West by and over next weekend with further rain at times. NAVGEM today shows the best chance of seeing somewhat drier conditions across the South at least later next week as it builds High pressure close to the South and SE with dry and possibly milder air pulled NE. However, it also shows a straddling trough caught up under this higher pressure which if verified would bring further rain which extends to most areas again soon after term of the run as the Atlantic feeds another trough East. ECM continues to look very unsettled with fronts and depression feeding in from the West right up to the end of the UK. There could be a few longer drier phases than of late when it could be rather colder later next week and it will generally be certain to be less windy but any sustained dry weather looks likely to be a scarce commodity with a Low pressure belt again to the North in 10 days time. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues to show quite a flat bias in the pattern with Low pressure over Iceland and High pressure to the South. This shows that the bias of members lies with a continuation of a zonal pattern with winds preferring a Westerly aspect with rain at times for all areas in temperatures that never look particularly cold. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream flow blows for another 5 days or so under it's current shape and form before a disruption looks likely for a time later next week. It is short-lived though and seems to reset to a West to East flow close to the UK again late in the period. In Summary there seems unlikely to be relied upon settled weather over the next few weeks over the UK. Changes in the pattern are trying to occur later next week when pressure rises to the North somewhat but the problem appears that pressure to the South is too high and with an over riding Jet around this the pattern quickly resets to a zonal one once more later in the output. So although there is a window of better and colder weather likely soon after midweek it looks unlikely to move us out of the unsettled spell with further rain at times from the West then taking hold once more. Temperatures for the most part will not be bad considering it's January but it is likely to become somewhat less mild than of late with some snowfall at times possible over Northern high ground. with time.

Good evening folks. Here is the evening report on the 12 midday outputs of the NWP for today Thursday January 2014. All models continue to show a new major storm winding up towards the NW of Britain later tonight and tomorrow with a short spell of rain this evening and tonight giving way to showery and very windy weather tomorrow with gales and severe gales in places. Through Saturday further showers look likely as winds remain SW or West and strong though a drier spell is possible before all models show a new surge of Atlantic energy with wet and windy weather on Sunday before returning all areas to showers and blustery SW winds early next week. GFS then shows Low pressure to the North filling midweek with a lessening in wind and showers for a time. However a further spell of rain looks likely later next week as further Low pressure moves over from the West before High pressure moving up from the SW by next weekend then gives a period of quiet anticyclonic weather with frost and fog problems night and morning and cold bright days. The GFS Ensembles show that the operational was a colder outlier later in the run with most members supporting a change onto drier and brighter conditions at times through Week 2 but with higher temperatures hinting at High pressure being just to the South or SE of the UK. UKMO closes it's run next Wednesday showing sunshine and showers with rather lighter SW winds in association with filling Low pressure to the North and rising pressure to the SE and the mid Atlantic. GEM again tonight keeps things very unsettled throughout it's run maintaining the Atlantic progression of rain bearing troughs though the gales of late should of become less marked than of late. Temperatures look like remaining near average. NAVGEM also keeps a West or SW feed going later next week though much lighter than of late. There would be continue to be rain at times for all should tonight's charts verify with temperatures close to normal. ECM also shows maintained unsettled weather as a Westerly flow from the Atlantic is maintained with rain and showers at times. Despite higher pressure values than of late the weather in terms of rainfall will continue to be poor and hardly requisite for flooding levels to fall but at least the wind will be less of a feature as will the temperature values. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart continues it's theme of recent runs with Low pressure most likely towards the NW of Britain near Iceland and High pressure remaining to the South with a SW flow across the UK with the risk of rain remaining for many. This bias indicates relatively few members offer much in the way of reliable relief from wind and rain let alone cold and snow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast keeps the flow pumping quickly across the Atlantic and over the British Isles for the next week or so. Then in line with it's rises of pressure the pattern becomes much more diffuse and unclear with no clear cut signal apparent. In Summary the weather pattern remains largely disturbed tonight. GFS does offer some better weather and High pressure in it's operational and ensembles but the other models bring any rise of pressure too far to the South to prevent rain areas to continue to affect all areas at times in the persistent Westerly breeze which hold temperatures close to average at least for all areas.

Good morning everyone. Here is today's review of the 12 midnight outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 2nd 2014. All models continue to show the UK weather driven by a strong Jet flow across the Atlantic towards the Southern UK. Within this flow large depressions are shown to move up towards NW Britain with strong to gale SW winds and periods of rain running through on active troughs followed by periods of sunshine and squally showers. This process occurs through tonight and tomorrow and again on Sunday and Monday with just brief drier interludes in between principally today and again later on Saturday. Early next week then shows a large Low close to NW Britain filling steadily but maintaining rather showery conditions across the UK but with decreasing winds and temperatures a little lower, especially by night in the more sheltered East. GFS then shows the midweek period with a continuing SW feed under rising pressure and further showers before a longer spell of rain associated with new troughs pushes East across the UK late in the week. This is followed by drier weather moving across from the West under a brief anticyclone close to SE England for a time next weekend. The pattern remains changeable however and it isn't long before further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure threaten the dry period with further rain at least for a time late in the run. The GFS Ensembles maintain next to no chance of major cold over UK shores within the two week spell keeping temperatures very close to average with rain at times throughout the run though amounts may well reduce from the amounts experienced of late, at least for a time. UKMO today shows filling Low pressure up to the NW later next week with SW winds decreasing and a broad trough just to the West. As a result further sunshine and showery type weather looks likely in average temperatures or a little above and with some Eastern areas becoming largely dry. GEM keeps very unsettled weather going throughout it's later stages as further Low pressure forms to the SW and later West with rain and showers continuing for all areas at times with temperatures close to average. NAVGEM shows gently rising pressure through next week but doesn't eradicate the risk of rain at times anywhere although the North will see the majority of it later next week as pressure rises enough over the South to give at least some dry and bright weather at times. Temperatures would stay close to average but slight ground frost at night could be possible in the South under light winds and clearing night time skies. ECM without the earlier support of it's ensembles has dropped it's High pressure phase later next week as it now shows a continuation of Low pressure being fed in off the Atlantic from the West to maintain frequent areas of rain and showers across all areas in strong winds at times and fairly standard and average January temperatures. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows a bias of pressure being High to the South and Low to the North-West near Iceland. The resultant Westerly flow indicates the weather is likely to remain somewhat unsettled and probably rather mild in the South with closer proximity to higher pressure to the South than recently. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Forecast continues to blow strongly East over the Atlantic close to Southern Britain before it shows less clear signals later but with a bias to maintain a course similar to currently but less strong than of late particularly at the European end. IN Summary today there seems little to indicate anything other than a continuation of the Atlantic based weather pattern. It looks certain that after the early week storm that some lessening in the depth of unsettledness and strength of depressions flowing in from the West will lead to less gales and heavy rain but will nevertheless keep things generally changeable with some rain at times. With High pressure looking possible to creep in close to the South at times the feed of air from the West or SW could become rather mild at times in the South later. There remains little concrete evidence in this morning's output of any risk of severe cold, ice or snow anywhere in the UK anytime soon.

My rainfall and Annual data can be found here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 1st 2014. All models show the very unsettled period persisting for some considerable time tonight with the next week seeing all models show deep Low pressure areas repeatedly moving NE to the NW of Britain with spells of heavy rain alternating with sunshine and showers taking us out towards the middle of next week. GFS then maintains the feed of wet and sometimes wild conditions with further Low pressure areas maintaining a well worn path across the Atlantic with a continual feed of strong West winds and troughs feeding band of rain after rain across the UK in temperatures close to average. The GFS Ensembles continue with the unabated pattern of Atlantic based weather with periods of rain and showers across all areas throughout the next few weeks in temperatures close to average. UKMO on Tuesday 7th shows a slow moving and filling depression South of Iceland with further rain and showers feeding NE across the UK, heaviest in the South and West in relatively mild SW winds. GEM shows little overall change with the continuing feed of Atlantic winds in the vicinity of the UK though the effects will be less dramatic than of late with the heaviest rain returning to more Northern and Western areas later next week. NAVGEM also shows lessening effects of the SW flow which is generally maintained across the UK towards the end of next week with mild and dry conditions likely across SE Britain at the end of the run. ECM tonight continues to show a much better outlook later next week with Low pressure filling up to the NE and rising pressure leading to drier and brighter conditions with light winds and sunny spells but also sharp frosts at night later next week. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is attached and shows to me that the majority of the ECM members show something less settled than the operational is indicating but that is not to say it isn't right as others have pointed out it is three operationals in a row that have shown something more settled later next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream pattern remains strong and as were for the next week or so with the flow remaining fast and strong in an Eastwards direction close to Southern Britain. The trend is much less clear cut thereafter with a rather weaker flow at least tempering the flow and location later. In Summary the pattern remains the same as this morning with the main exception being that of ECM which once more shows an operational run which shows the weather improving markedly later next week under High pressure. The rest show less well structured improvements in pressure levels with winds remaining Westerly with further rain at times through the second week.

Good morning everyone and a very Happy New Year to you all. Here is my 1st report on the midnight outputs from NWP for today Wednesday January 1st 2014. All models remain very unified in stating that the current unsettled spell will continue for at least the next 7 days with Low pressure areas continuing to crash across the Atlantic up to the NW of Britain. This maintains the feed of strong to gale and locally severe gale force SW winds at times along with areas of rain and showers repeatedly crossing quickly NE or East in the flow. The rain will be persistent and troublesome at times giving rise to surface flooding issues almost anywhere but more likely to the usual prone locations. In the showery interludes the usual winter cocktail of hail, thunder, sleet and snow is just about possible particularly near Western and Southern coasts with only very short windows of drier weather in between. GFS then takes us through the middle and end of next week with some moderation in the wet and windy regime for a time as isobars open out with somewhat colder air in tow for a time. However, on this morning's operational run it isn't long before renewed Atlantic gales and heavy rain sweeps back in off a volatile Atlantic for the remainder of the period to maintain the pattern that we have grown so used to since mid December with little chance of wintry weather. The GFS Ensembles back up this theme very well with a heavy bias towards Westerly winds being maintained and heavy rain at times throughout the period with temperatures never far from average overall. UKMO today shows a deep depression near 950mbs between Scotland and Iceland next Tuesday which means a continuation of strong WSW winds and showers at least and most likely some longer spells of heavy rain in places too with temperatures close to the January average. GEM shows this feature filling in situ as we move through the middle and end of next week with the rain and showers dying out slowly before High pressure building to the SE sets up a milder SW flow with rain for the North and West to end next week. NAVGEM also shows this feature filling up to the NW over the middle of next week but insufficiently to change the weather pattern of rain or showers within the confines of the run this morning. ECM is looking very isolated in it's prediction of a pattern change later next week and carries on from where it left off last night developing it further into a Scandinavian High pressure by the end of the week coupled with a tongue of cold air wafting gently West towards Southern Britain in slack conditions. There would continue to be a risk of rain from this slack pressure zone across the South perhaps turning wintry over the hills. The ECM Ensembles Mean chart for 10 days does not support the operational ending up looking more like GEM in 10 days time with High pressure biased towards being to the SE of the UK and the rampant Atlantic set to pounce once more. However, I realise this is just half of the picture and there will no doubt be some support for the operational in among the gloom of the other members of it's set. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream forecast suggests the flow maintains it's current trajectory for some while yet with only minor tweaks and adjustments North and South over the UK in the forecast period. In Summary today there is a split in the output theory on developments following the filling of a large depression North of the UK towards the middle of next week. While much output doesn't stretch out far enough to evolve it on it looks unlikely that GEM or NAVGEM would follow any other route than that of GFS which maintains a strong Atlantic flow with deep depressions continuing to rattle over the Atlantic with all the wind and rain to which we have become accustomed maintained well into mid January. However, ECM has other ideas with a block forming over Scandinavia and with Low pressure West of Iberia and over Eastern Europe the block could be supported at this Northern latitude without collapse. The Day 10 chart is quite a clever chart as it leaves you wanting it to move on a few more days as there is certainly a chance of something better for cold fans to grasp hold of today. The main problem however, is the Ensemble mean chart for day 10 puts a bias towards High pressure to the SE of Britain whilst drier would hardly lead into something notably cold. More runs needed and greater cross model support too.

Good evening. Here is the last report of the 300 or so I have produced through 2013. It is taken from my website using as usual the data supplied by the NWP for Tuesday December 31st 2013. All models maintain the unsettled and sometimes thoroughly wet and windy conditions over the next week or so as Low pressure continues to move into the UK from the Atlantic repeatedly over the next 7 days or so with strong to gale SW or West winds on occasion. Temperatures will stay largely close to average with some short colder slots when some of the showery spells could produce some snow over the higher hills at times. GFS shows a drier interlude as more of a ridge crosses West to East over the middle of next week with some drier and brighter weather for all areas before the weather slides back downhill again late next week and through the latter stages of the run. With higher pressure closer to the South than of late the rain amounts would lessen overall with the heaviest and most persistent precipitation reverting towards more NW areas in temperatures close to average for early to mid January. UKMO shows deep Low pressure just off NW Scotland next Monday with a strong to gale force WSW flow over Britain with rain or showers affecting all areas through the early part of next week in average temperatures. GEM shows pressure building next week after the deep Low early in the week steadily fills. Early heavy rains at the beginning of the week die out steadily later with dry and brighter conditions while maintaining basically quite average temperatures but with an increased risk of night frost. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure up to the North slow moving and filling steadily next week so that by soon after midweek the weather becomes less wet with showers dying back towards western coasts as High pressure builds to the Southwest and Southeast. ECM tonight shows a transformation tonight with pressure rising steadily next week as Low pressure steadily fills to the North next week as it moves away East. By the end of the week High pressure has built strongly over the UK with frost and freezing fog the main issues with some pleasantly bright and sunny days where fog clears, The GFS Ensembles continue to show an unsettled pattern for the next few weeks with an increase in length of some drier spells in between the rain as we approach next week. There is no real sign of any generally cold conditions though things may trend somewhat colder overall than currently. The Jet Stream shows the flow continuing to flow East across the Atlantic close to the South of Britain. The trend is to keep the flow well South over Europe late in the output with a push North of the flow over the Atlantic towards Iceland later in week 2. In Summary tonight there is still good support for a slow down or a cessation of the Atlantic train of Low pressure. The ECM's operational run is at the extreme of hope I feel but there is other good evidence for something drier and brighter later next week with temperatures not likely to be particularly high away from areas of frost and fog which may develop as a result of higher pressure and lighter winds. ***********************MAY I WISH ALL AT NETWEATHER A HAPPY NEW YEAR**************************

Yes just had a pretty good line squall pass over with driving heavy rain and hail briefly. We almost dipped back into darkness as the black roll cloud passed over.

Good morning. Here is the latest report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for the final day of 2013. All models show a continuing very unsettled period between now and the end of next weekend with details slightly different between the models but all saying the same message of Low pressure over or to the NW of the UK with a strong to gale West or SW flow over all areas. The wet and very windy spell is going to persist through the first week of 2014 with strong winds and heavy rain alternating with brief drier and more showery interludes. Temperatures will remain close to average largely offset for much of the time by the strength of the wind. GFS then moves into next week showing very little change with the rest of it's run typifed by continuing very strong West winds and further spells of rain with some colder periods over the North with wintry showers at times over the hills. There seems only a small chance of much in the way of anything more than very short dry interludes between the rain bands. UKMO closes it's run next Monday with an intense depression under 950mbs just off Northern Ireland with gale or severe gale force WSW winds over the UK with showers or longer spells of rain rushing through on the breeze through the day in very average temperatures for early January. GEM is also reluctant to show anything other than more of the same towards the end of it's run with the chance of a rather colder and less windy period later next week when wintry showers might occur almost anywhere for a time. NAVGEM too shows frequent Lows crashing across the Atlantic and into the UK bringing repeated bands of wind and rain, heavy at times across all areas in average temperatures. ECM today shows a slight change towards the middle of next week with a pause in the Atlantic bandwagon allowing for a quieter couple of days with a few wintry showers in colder air before I'm afraid the next system over the NW Atlantic regains supremacy with fronts crossing East over the UK by the end of the week returning wind and rain to all areas as well as returning temperatures to average values. The GFS Ensembles paint all too familiar a picture again this morning with an Atlantic bias throughout carrying forward the very unsettled, wet and often windy period to which we have become accustomed right out to the far end when there are quite a few members showing an Anticyclonic end to the run biased towards the South of the UK . The Jet Stream remains very strong crashing over the Atlantic and into the UK or Northern France for the next week to 10 days before the High pressure based bias in the ensembles pushes the flow further North across towards Iceland at the end of the run. In Summary it seems my innitial encouraging thoughts towards a break in the pattern to something more wintry last night was a tad premature as any such thoughts from this morning's output have been largely dwarfed or removed as the seemingly immovable train of Atlantic weather systems remain. There does seem some indication of a slow down of intensity of the wet and windy period later in the outputs as High pressure does show more of a hand but not necessarily in the right place for cold weather to become established.

Good evening folks. Here is tonight's report on the 12 noon outputs of the NWP for today Monday December 30th 2013. All models show the weather fine for a time tonight as a lull passes East over the UK. Another squally trough feature then moves East over Britain after midnight clearing tomorrow morning to a day of sunshine and squally heavy showers. On New Years Day the weather remains very unsettled with a new Low spinning NE up the Western flank of the UK with renewed gales and heavy rain followed by showers late in the day. The unsettled and windy theme is then shown to continue in one shape or another from all models up to the end of the weekend. GFS then shows the second half of the run with little respite with further Low pressure areas marching in from the West close to Northern Scotland sending rain bearing troughs East across the UK with further severe gales in places and temperatures close to average throughout. UKMO closes the run next Sunday showing Low pressure to the West of Ireland with a strong SW flow across the UK with heavy rain and gales continuing to batter the UK on occasion with showers and sunny intervals in between. GEM tonight shows stormy conditions to start next week before a colder interlude develops with wintry showers as pressure rises from the South with a dry and brighter spell for most in 10 days time, though it doesn't look likely to last long. NAVGEM closes it's run with deep low pressure to the north of the UK with strong WSW winds carrying further rain and shower bands East across the UK in average temperatures. ECM too shows the chance of something rather colder setting up as we move towards the end of next week as Low pressure slows down and fills over the UK as High pressure ridges through the Atlantic, setting up a cell of High pressure just to the North and with lower pressure over Southern Europe there is a chance that the end of tonight's ECM could be the break that many cold fans were looking for. The GFS Ensembles do show some signs of change later in the output as a few members drop into the abyss with regard to cold while others take a more modest approach towards cold late in the run. the net result is another week to 10 days of wet and wild weather before things may turn rather colder and drier. The Jet Stream shows the flow as before through the next week to 10 days with the increased tendency for it to buckle later as the speed of flow of Atlantic Lows is slowed. In Summary tonight I am pleased to say that there does seem to be some light at the end of the recent very long tunnel. There is a lot of wind and rain to get through during the next 10 days but there are tonight better signals for a pattern change later next week as the chance of something rather colder and drier is indicated from more than one source.

Good morning. From yet another morning of wet and windy conditions in the West Country here's this morning's report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for Monday December 30th 2013. All models show a trough moving steadily East over the UK carrying strong winds and rain with it, clearing Eastern Britain later this afternoon. A lull of light Westerly winds follow with just a few showers before another vigorous trough crosses East overnight with further very gusty winds and showery rain. Tomorrow is then shown with SW winds, strong at times with rain turning showery later. Into 2014 and the weather is shown by all models to look every bit as volatile with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds alternating with somewhat colder interludes with heavy showers, especially near Southern and Western coasts. GFS then shows next weekend as very unsettled as another vigorous Low pressure trundles East across the heart of the UK with gales and heavy rain at some point on Saturday giving way to colder and showery conditions for a time before on Sunday a new major Atlantic Low sets up another round of strong WSW winds and rain. From then on through Week 2 absolutely no respite is shown with deep Low pressure to the North with strong Westerly winds and showers and longer spells of rain coupled with gales persisting unabated. UKMO closes it's run next Sunday with a deep and complex Low pressure covering much of the North Atlantic from Newfoundland, Iceland and the UK each affecting the UK with strong winds and very heavy rainfall with flooding becoming a serious issue if these Lows come in with this frequency. GEM is very similar with the main message being of more severe gales at times with periods of rain sweep in from the West regularly with short showery spells in between. The run ends with a 960mb Low centred close to West Wales with all the attendant problems that would bring if verified. NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure (965mbs) West of Ireland with strong SSW winds and rain from troughs blown quickly North and East on strong SW winds, especially in the South. ECM today shows little difference although once more Low pressure fills over the UK by Day 10 giving a brief colder spell in 10 days with showers turning wintry for all in lighter North winds. However, with the pressure structure as it is the UK looks to be on the collision course of the next Low pressure exiting Newfoundland by the end of the week as an Atlantic ridge would topple SE over and away from the UK. The ECM Ensemble Mean at Day 10 indicates troughing still over and to the NW of the UK with higher pressure to the South over Southern Europe and the Azores maintaining unsettled weather with rain at times and hardly indicative of anything other than colder transitory polar maritime incursions at times. The GFS Ensemble mean remains little changed from those of late with nothing to suggest anything other than a continuation of wet and windy weather for all areas at times in temperatures overall pretty close to average. The Jet stream continues to be programmed to run powerfully across the Atlantic towards Southern Britain or Northern France throughout this morning's output. The Summary this morning remains doggedly the same as I have been saying for weeks now and that is the very volatile and sometimes powerful unsettled spell is locked in for the foreseeable future. There will be spells of very strong winds and very heavy rain all too frequently through the period creating more misery for flood prone areas with some wind damage too possible at times. There will be some very short showery interludes when winds fall lighter and at these times it may be briefly colder with some snow showers on the hills, especially in the North. However, temperatures overall will not be troublesome maintaining an overall very average level with only limited chances of slight frost under transient ridges.

Good evening. Here is my latest analysis of the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Sunday December 29th 2013. All models show an active frontal system crossing the UK overnight with rain and strong winds already over the far West moving across all areas by midnight or soon after. Tomorrow will see the front clear SE England through the day followed by less windy and quite bright conditions with just a few showers over hills and coasts in the West. Then on Tuesday another disturbance will run across from the South-West with further heavy rain and strong winds followed by showers with New Years Day following a similar pattern to that of New Years Eve. On Thursday rather colder and still breezy conditions will be present over all areas with a mix of sunshine and showers, heavy and thundery in places and falling as snow on hills in the North. GFS then leads us into next weekend with gales and heavy rain followed by colder weather with sunshine and showers in a blustery NW flow before the whole pattern resets early next week with further strong winds and rain for all. For a time the heaviest rain will transfer North to affect Scotland and Northern England with SW areas becoming drier though windy for a day or two before very unsettled weather returns to all areas before the end of the run. UKMO tonight closes it's run next Saturday with a very disturbed pattern across the British Isles with deep depressions crossing over and close to the North ensuring next weekend stays wet and occasionally windy and rather cold in the North with snow showers on the hills. GEM remains resolutely unsettled at the latter stages of it's run with Low pressure persistent to the North and a strong Westerly wind carrying rain and showers across all areas with snow on Northern hills at times and temperatures generally close to average. NAVGEM tonight is also very disturbed next weekend with Low pressure clearing away East only to make way for another deep one close to the NW with strong and blustery winds coupled with periods of rain and showers from fast moving troughs the ongoing outcome. ECM is broadly similar with a window of fine conditions next Sunday not unlike today's as a brief ridge passes over but as always of late it doesn't last and by the start of the new week very deep Low pressure out to the NW sends strong winds and rain NE across all areas followed by windy and showery conditions. At the end of the run a window of potentially much colder and drier period looks possible as the Low pressure slips SE over the UK followed by a building ridge of High pressure with NE winds for a time with wintry showers for all areas and frost at night. The GFS Ensembles still show no definitive trend towards anything other than what we have received over the last couple of weeks with powerful depressions keeping the mobile and sometimes stormy weather pattern going with just short gasps of polar maritime air on the rear end of exiting depressions before the next one comes along. The net result is for the mean average for the set staying close to the long term mean. The Jet Stream keeps pushing relentlessly strong across the Atlantic towards Northern France or the UK throughout the period on show tonight. In Summary tonight the pattern remains very unsettled and potentially stormy at times. There will be copious amounts of rain for all areas over the next few weeks with no area immune. With only short drier and somewhat colder periods on offer under transient ridges, and with ECM possibly offering up something more sustained for a time in 10 days or so it's not all gloom and doom. However, there is a lot of water to pass under the bridge before any such changes could occur and we must continue to wait for more definitive and cross model agreement on any changes shown in the longer term before we can begin to believe that a change of pattern is about to happen soon.