Gibby

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday December 5th 2013. All models show a deep depression running ESE across the Northern North Sea and down into Central Europe tonight and tomorrow. A spell of windy weather is shown for all with severe gale or even storm force gusts of wind in the North later today for a time. A cold front also moves South with a band of rain reaching Southern England this evening followed by clearer and cold conditions with snow showers across the North by tonight, transferring to NE Britain while most other areas see decreasing winds and clear skies along with a frost. High pressure then moves in close to the South tomorrow as a warm front moves around the top of the High across Britain late tomorrow and on Saturday returning the UK to milder and cloudy weather but dry conditions once early rain and sleet clears the NE. This then heralds a prolonged period of stagnant conditions across the UK. GFS shows Westerly winds to start next week gradually backing Southerly with increasingly mild conditions expected especially over the North and West with a little rain and drizzle possible over hills and coasts at times. In the South and East though technically similar conditions overhead it may well be a little less mild here with less breeze and slightly drier air allowing the risk of some mist and frost patches if skies clear to any degree overnight. Through the remainder of the run High pressure continues to have complete control over our weather with dry and cloudy conditions likely to continue with temperatures close to average under an inversion most of the time. UKMO closes it's run next Wednesday with High pressure stretching from Southern Britain to the Baltic Sea. Much of England and Wales would be largely calm and cloudy and possibly rather cold feeling. Should the general cloud cover break from the SE then frost and fog could develop making it very cold locally. Scotland and Northern Ireland would stay rather cloudy and certainly milder with a little hill fog and drizzle near Western coasts. GEM today continues to show a very wintry situation developing as the latter part of next week develops. High pressure which stretches from the UK to the Baltic midweek intensifies North to Scandinavia as a surge of cold Russian air moves West on the Southern flank of the High at the same time as a deep Western Atlantic Low pumps troughs down towards Iberia and Biscay which intensifies a strong and bitter East flow with potential for snowfall across Southern Britain by the second weekend. NAVGEM maintains High pressure on a more Southerly latitude continuing the static and rather cloudy Southerly drift over the UK later next week. It will feel a little colder in the SE with the flow from a Continental land source but chill rather than cold would be the feel while the NW stays quite mild. ECM today too holds High pressure more towards the SE of the UK rather than East with the UK well and truly on the warm side of this feature with gentle SW winds and mostly cloudy skies the likely weather pattern. Some drier and colder air could skirt the far SE at times making it less mild here and later in the run Low pressure troughs would be closing in on NW Britain with increasing winds and a greater threat of rain likely here by next weekend. The GFS Ensembles show a markedly dry period coming up for December with little if any noteworthy rain events shown by hardly any member through the period. In addition a sustained spell of mild uppers cover the UK in a Southerly drift from Southern Europe or the Southern part of the North Atlantic. There is a slow trend towards more average conditions late in the run but this looks due to natural variability in members's predictions at that range rather than a particular trend. The Jet Stream shows the flow diving SE down the North Sea around the deep Atlantic storm to the NE today. Thereafter it surges NE back towards Iceland and Northern waters where it remain blowing strongly for almost the entire period from the SW. In Summary there is still little excitement in the weather patterns over the UK for the next couple of weeks. With the Jet stream blowing very strongly East and NE well to the NW of the UK for the foreseeable there is little manouevreability for High pressure over Europe to edge North next week to Scandinavia to change the pattern to something more wintry. GEM manages to do it though for the second operational run in a row but looks very isolated among a pack of much milder benign options which all show a light Southerly flow with warm uppers wafting up across the UK. As it's winter inversions are likely to form over the UK with a lot of cloud trapping some colder air at times near the surface and this is likely to occur next week across the South and East at times while the North and NE have the chance to achieve some very mild value temperatures at times in the weak SW flow. It is currently hard to see where and when we will break out of this pattern with the clock ticking to what would be a very dry and benign December if the charts verify up to later December as is shown this morning but we must always remember a week or two is a long time in meteorological terms and things can change fairly quickly and probably will.

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs of the big 5 weather modules and what they mean for us at the surface over the coming few weeks from today Wednesday December 4th 2013. All models show a rapidly deepening depression moving East to the North of Scotland while Southern Britain lies under a weak ridge of High pressure tonight. Through the night winds increase markedly over Scotland then Northern England with severe gales and storm force gusts in places. An area of rain will move South too, heavy and squally briefly before clearer and colder weather with a continuation of severe gales and developing wintry showers of sleet or snow across Scotland by the end of the day. England and Wales will also see winds increase with a weak band of rain towards the end of tomorrow, however winds are not expected to be troublesome here with rainfall at a minimum too. Thereafter a cold and dry Friday once remaining wintry showers clear the NE leads into a milder trend over the weekend and start of next week as High pressure crosses ESE over the South and away to NW Europe where is it looks like settling for some considerable time. GFS tonight then shows little change to these synoptics for virtually the remainder of the run with SSW winds blowing up across the UK with the mildest conditions over the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas stay fine and possibly cloudy but less mild then further NW. UKMO tonight closes it's run with High pressure close to the Netherlands with a light Southerly feed over the UK. All areas look like staying dry and relatively mild in any brighter spells and in the lee of high ground to the South. There is still the risk of patchy frost and fog at night across the SE in particular. GEM shows High pressure building over Scandinavia towards the middle and end to next week before High pressure transfers to Greenland swamping the UK in colder winds from Europe with some clearer air making for some frost at night in shelter from the SE wind. NAVGEM shows High pressure towards Central Europe with a ridge towards the UK and the Jet Stream roaring over the top of the High over Scandinavia. This keeps many areas fine and dry with a lot of cloud and average temperatures or above for all, coldest in the SE. ECM tonight shows a sobering though for cold lovers tonight as it shows High pressure covering most of mainland Europe with dry weather extending across much of he UK too. With a broad SW flow temperatures look mild or very mild for some with occasional rain at times possible towards the NW at times. The GFS Ensembles show good support for very much warmer conditions aloft next week and probably beyond. At the surface it may also be mild as South or SW winds mix the air out to bring some of that mild air to all at times. As usual at the end of the run natural variability between various solutions ensues with no definitive trend to be drawn from that range. The Jet Stream tonight shows the flow moving NE to the NW of the British Isles after the temporary diversion SE down the North Sea for the next 24-48hrs. It shows very little sign of deviating from this location for the foreseeable future tonight. In Summary tonight leaving GEM's operational fanatics aside all models support a sustained period of potentially mild and benign weather for the foreseeable future once the gales and coldness of the next few days dissolves away. High pressure looks destined to become slow moving to the SE of Britain with South or SW winds driving mild and cloudy weather from the East Atlantic over Northern and Western areas at least. Southern and Eastern parts may also be mild at times though winds from a more SE direction at times could direct some rather colder air across at the surface with the risk of overnight fog and frost patches. Amounts of rain over the two weeks looks small.

Good morning folks. Here's my take on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday December 4th 2013. All models show a change to colder, windier and brighter conditions beginning today as the first of two weak cold fronts cross SE bringing fresher and somewhat colder conditions with some sunshine later today and some frost tonight. At this time all models also show a rapidly deepening depression crossing East to the north of Scotland and then on over Europe with a fast moving cold front moving South tomorrow bringing a narrow and short-lived burst of rain followed by very much colder weather with severe gales in the North for a time along with snow showers, appreciable on Scottish mountains for a time. High pressure then builds quickly back across Southern areas and cuts off the cold feed to bring a less cold weekend and probably rather cloudy again with a little rain possible in the North for a time. GFS then shows the High settling to the South, most likely over France with a mild SW flow over the North and West with cloud and a little drizzle possible. The South and East will share in this benign weather pattern but here there remains a risk of patchy night frost and fog should cloud breaks occur. Things then turn more changeable for all briefly with some rain possible for just about all as troughs move through before thing again return anticyclonic and benign at the end of the run and still relatively mild for December. UKMO today closes it's run for next Tuesday High pressure well established to the SE of Britain with relatively mild Southerly winds moving North over the UK. The North and West will likely feel the full benefit of these with largely dry and cloudy conditions while the South too sees a lot of cloud too but less mild with some mist, fog and frost patches possible at times should cloud breaks drift across in association with drier continental air to the SE. GEM shows a similar pattern to begin the week but it pulls High pressure to more northern latitudes over Europe maintaining a ridge towards Britain. This then allows colder and brighter conditions to gradually infiltrate the South of the UK from Europe with frost and fog patches night and morning while the North clings on to milder weather. NAVGEM is virtually the same with High pressure to the East drawing up Southerly winds with the mildest air to the North and West with the same patchy fog and frost risk likely towards more South-eastern parts of Britain. ECM keeps High pressure towards the East and SE with a slack SE flow over the South for much of the time. There looks likely to be a lot of cloud trapped in the flow but as with the other models a SE feed from Europe could carry clearer and colder air in at times with frost and patchy fog night and morning. Further North and West this looks less likely with the mildest weather likely in the NW. The GFS Ensemble data suggests a very dry period for Southern and Eastern areas with high uppers aloft once the cold phase clears out of the way early this weekend. There is little rain shown throughout for the South with any shown transitory to a route with more High pressure. The Jet Stream is expected to maintain a position well Northwest of the UK next week and beyond probably near Iceland offering the UK no real chance of tapping into cold conditions anytime soon with High pressure maintained over Southern and Central Europe. In Summary today there is no chance of any real cold shown in any of the output this morning under the time span covered. This gives us two weeks in which to relax from wondering whether the atmosphere will throw anything at us that will affect any outdoor plans as after the next few days with High pressure close to the SE days of useable benign weather conditions look likely when we will be chasing areas of cloud around to allow some pleasant and relatively mild sunshine or conversely as to how much frost and fog such clearances at night will allow. Such breaks are more likely over the South and East where conditions shouldn't be overly mild but further North and West mild weather is likely and here there is more risk of occasional rain from Atlantic fronts.

Good evening folks. Here's how I see the midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM and what they mean for us down on the surface over the next week or two. All models show a weak cold front moving South across Central areas overnight with a band of outbreaks of rain moving South to reach South Wales and the Midlands by morning. The North will see clearer conditions behind the rain with a frost in places and a few wintry showers over the far North. Through tomorrow the rain progresses through the South while another front approaches the North later. Clearer conditions will give the South more sunshine later in the day while Northern areas become cloudier and breezier later. Through tomorrow night and Thursday a rapidly deepening depression moves East then SE to the North and NE of Britain with gale or severe gale force winds over Northern areas and with a short spell of rain moving quickly SE down over all areas through the day. Very cold air will follow with snow showers in the North and East while Southern and Western areas stay dry, breezy and cold. Then after a frost on Friday night High pressure slips SE over Southern Britain allowing milder air and cloudy conditions from the North Atlantic to filter across and down over the UK through the weekend. GFS then shows the rest of the run with the UK under mild SW or SSW winds with Northern and Western areas under risk of rain at times in blustery winds. More Southern and Eastern areas stay largely dry with rather cloudy conditions prevailing and temperatures possibly mild if surface winds stay sufficiently breezy to bring milder uppers down from above to the surface. UKMO tonight shows High pressure over much of France and the Meditteranean Sea with a Westerly flow over Northern Britain with relatively mild and cloudy conditions here. Over Southern Britain winds will be quite light with a lot of cloud at times but with some drier and clearer skies at times too leading to frost and fog patches night and morning with chilly and grey conditions prevailing at other times. GEM shows High pressure to the SE building strongly through next week with mild Atlantic winds affecting the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas stay dry and though rather cloudy at times areas of mist, fog and frost under any clearances in the cloud could give some more rather chilly anticyclonic gloom type days down here. NAVGEM follows the trend of the others with a moist SW flow over the North and West carrying cloud and mild weather across these areas. In the South and East it may well be that we maintain somewhat colder conditions with some frost and fog patches should cloud breaks occur overnight. ECM shows a large High pressure area over France later next week which will maintain mostly fine and settled conditions across many areas. It will not be particularly mild early in the week away from the NW but it does look under the light to moderate WSW flow shown on Day 10 that mild if cloudy conditions look likely for all though with very little rainfall anywhere. The GFS Ensembles show a cold snap over the coming few days before things turn less cold and benign once more as High pressure to the SE wafts Southerly winds up across the UK. Rainfall is shown only towards the latter part of the run for the South from some members with amounts small for all. The ECM 12 noon Ensembles also paint a relatively mild scenario at least aloft with High pressure to the SE of the UK. To obtain cold from these we need an inversion which often means cloudy, grey and rather cold conditions in very light winds. If however, the winds are somewhat stronger at the surface some of those warmer uppers could translate towards the surface though conversely frost becomes an issue at night should drier continental winds make landfall over the South. The Jet Stream shows the flow to the NW turning SE down the North Sea briefly over the next 72 hours before the flow quickly resets in a NE direction over the Atlantic to the NW of the British Isles and on over Northern Scandinavia. In Summary tonight the cold snap is almost here and still shows a 'blink and a miss it' affair away from Northern and Eastern parts where severe gales and occasional snowfall could be quite noteworthy for a while. However, this is the only noteworthy weather conditions to come out of the 12 noon models tonight. All of them show High pressure moving in close to Southern Britain at the weekend and down to the SE from the start of next week setting up a South or SW flow over the UK. With the proximity of High pressure so close to the SE at times then cloudy and dry weather will probably sum up the weather through most of next week and probably beyond with little or no rain away from the far NW at times. Temperatures will be on the warm side of average over Northern and Western Britain under a maritime SW'ly while Southern and Eastern areas possibly too sharing some of this milder air remain always at risk from incursions of Continental air bringing colder air in from Europe at times with frost and fog issues should it occur. All in all though it looks very likely that it is going to be sometime before our UK weather resembles anything like real Winter weather with most farmers, growers, travellers and the like able to carry out their outside duties and travels unhindered.

Good morning everyone. Here is how I see the outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM taken from their midnight outputs today Tuesday December 3rd 2013. All models show High pressure moving gently South over Southern Britain today as a weak cold front sinks South over Britain with some rain in places as it comes. Behind it some clearer skies develop for a while with a patchy frost tonight before another front sweeps SE across the UK on Thursday bringing a strong to severe gale NW wind to the NE for a time. Some wintry showers of sleet and snow will affect these areas too for a time before the drier weather over Southern and Western areas at the end of the week spreas to these regions too. Over the weekend cold and frosty weather is shown to be slowly replaced by cloudy and milder conditions as High pressure is shown to slip SE across Southern Britain and on into NW Europe backing winds to a milder SW direction. GFS then shows next week as being much milder for a time with Southerly winds wafting North over the UK around High pressure over SE Europe. In any brighter intervals it could become very mild in places. Later on though the High moves North to Scandinavia and a puddle of very chilly air is sent NW from Europe towards the UK. At the same time Low pressure off the Atlantic engages this cold air to deliver a spell of unsettled and wet weather for many and it may be cold enough for some of this rain to fall as snow for a time before the end of the run sees much more unsettled weather with rain or showers at times around deep Low pressure over the Atlantic. UKMO shows High pressure covering much of SW Europe early next week with mild Atlantic air drifting over the UK from the West or SW. The mildest weather will be towards the North and West where the cloud will be thickest and the winds more strong while Southern and Eastern areas remain more at risk of cloud breaks at times perhaps with some mist and fog patches and somewhat lower surface temperatures as a result in very light winds. GEM today shows a pattern we'd crave for in July as it would mean very hot weather as Southerly winds move up across the UK all the way from North Africa as High pressure settles down over SE Europe. As it is in any brighter breaks in the SE it could become exceptionally mild for early December with all areas sharing in very mild conditions at least with little in the way of rain away from the far West. NAVGEM shows High pressure collapsing all the way down to the Med early next week with pressure falling to the NW setting up a mild and strong SW flow over Britain with troughs crossing NE with rain at times for all in temperatures close to or somewhat above average. ECM takes High pressure only briefly away to the SE early next week before bringing it back NW in increasingly warm uppers to settle over the UK with a ridge to Scandinavia by Day 10. It looks like cloud will again be a big factor in determining conditions at the surface and it may well be that cloudy skies may keep cool conditions at the surface. However, if clouds break some very mild conditions could develop locally for a time though with patchy frost at night before more generally colder conditions begin to spread from the SE across Southern Britain at the end of the run as the UK High ridges towards Scandinavia. The GFS Ensembles show our brief cold snap as a blink and miss it affair before we revert back to probable anticyclonic gloom as cloudy skies around High pressure to the SE looks likely for much of next week with very little rainfall for the South and East until later as things become more mobile as Low pressure edges in towards Western Britain at times with rain for all on occasion. The Jet Stream today shows the flow to the North tilting SE down the North Sea in a day or two before resetting NE towards NW Scotland and on over Scandinavia next week keeping the UK very much on the mild side of the flow for the time being. In Summary today if we were in Summer we would be staring down the barrel of some very high temperatures as High pressure looks like slipping down to SE Europe and sending long fetch Southerly winds from North Africa, Spain and France across the UK. Being as it's winter things are much less clear cut as cloud cover will likely set up an inversion with cloudy skies and temperatures nearer to average but largely dry, frost and fog free. However, if clouds break occur it is not out of the question for some very mild conditions to develop for a time next week with 15C or more not entirely out of the equation if the sun breaks through. Later on though there is still suggestion that High pressure rises over Scandinavia and this would gradually pull colder air from Eastern Europe towards the UK in 10-14 days time but this is an ocean of time away at the moment and must remain speculative so the UK Winter remains on hold for the time being.

Hi everyone. Here's tonight's report from the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday December 3rd 2013. All models tonight show High pressure over Southern Britain slipping South towards midweek as a cold front slips slowly South over the North tomorrow and the South too by midweek with a little rain. Behind it comes clearer air for a time before another cold front brings a more marked drop in temperature especially over Northern and Eastern parts when some wintry showers could occur later on Thursday and Friday with some snowfall over Scotland. The drier air over the South and West then is shown to extend to all areas at the weekend as High pressure builds across Southern Britain for a time before beginning to decline SE early next week. GFS tonight shows mild SW winds taking hold slowly next week as High pressure continues to feed away SE. Innitially dry and rather cloudy weather will be likely before Low pressure gradually moves in closer to Western and NW areas bringing cloud and rain in on occasions with strong winds at times. Winds back more South or SE late in the run and with pressure rising to the NE things may begin to turn rather colder after the term of the run. UKMO closes it's run on Sunday with High pressure having moved away to the SE with a milder SW flow covering all areas with mild and rather cloudy weather likely to affect most parts early next week clearing the remains of the weekend chill away from the SE. GEM tonight shows High pressure over Northern France slipping SE then North towards Scandinavia late in the run. After some milder weather with a fresh Southerly flow and maybe a little rain in the West and NW rather colder air develops from the SE as winds back towards East around risen pressure over Scandinavia. NAVGEM tonight shows High pressure to the SE with a milder SW flow becoming established across the UK early next week with cloud and a little rain in the NW at times. ECM again tonight shows pressure rising strongly over Scandinavia by the middle of next week with cold air never really leaving the South where frost and fog patches could continue well into next week. The Northwest will see the milder conditions while winds backing ESE by the middle of next week would likely feed cold continental air NW across the South with clearer skies and further frost likely. The GFS Ensembles show a one day colder blip before a spell of milder weather with SW winds is shown by many members. Things then do trend slightly colder as we move into next week. Rainfall remains in short supply across Southern Britain. The Jet Stream shows the flow driving SE down the North Sea later in the week ahead of a realignment of the flow to run NE across the Atlantic and over the UK later in the period. In Summary tonight all models show a cold snap lasting a day or so giving way to a milder period with SW winds and a little rain, most likely towards the North and West early next week. The next phase of interest looks like developing later next week as there are some signs of pressure wanting to rise over Scandinavia and if this trend develops then we may have to start looking East for a cold spell later next week. The one thing of note it looks highly unlikely that there will be any significant rain in the next two weeks across Southern or Eastern Britain.

November, Autumn and Annual Data to date for Radstock can be found here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

November, Autumn and Annual Data to date for Radstock can be found here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Radstock-Data-Tables(2798516).htm

Good morning. Here is the latest Model Analysis report taken from www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk for today Monday December 2nd 3013. All models show High pressure positioned over England with flat calm conditions for many under largely cloudy skies. This weather type with only minor local variations continues through until Wednesday. The North will see a band of patchy rain move South through tomorrow and Wednesday as a cold front slips South. This then reaches the South late in the day before another front crosses South over the UK on Thursday bringing a notable drop in temperature, occasional wintry showers of sleet or snow for a time in the far North and East while Southern and Western areas become clear and cold with frost at night but sunshine by day to start off next weekend. GFS then takes High pressure away SE next week with cloudy and milder air being pumped up across all areas from the South and later the SW. Temperatures would exceed normal for all with time but it might take rather longer for this to happen in the SE early next week. Rain at times would develop for a while as fronts moved NE in the flow. Later in the run High pressure then migrates back NW over Europe to the UK bringing yet another spell of quiet and benign, rather cloudy conditions and with warm uppers we rely on an inversion to set up not to transfer very mild conditions down to the surface should it evolve as shown. UKMO shows next Sunday as a milder and breezy day across the North as winds back WSW with a front carrying cloud and a little rain East through the day. In the South quieter conditions remain and with High pressure close to or over the area then dry and potentially bright weather continues with some overnight frost and fog possibilities look more likely. GEM today shows High pressure receding South early next week into Southern Europe allowing milder SW winds to become established over all areas. With a bank of deep Low pressure stretching West to East to the NW of the UK rain at times would be inevitable, heaviest in the NW with strong winds reaching gale foce too at times. Temperatures would be close to average at worst and the SE may become rather mild at times. NAVGEM too shows High pressure receding SE early next week with milder SW then Southerly air affecting the UK, probably rather cloudy and benign again with any frost and fog risk at first in the SE gradually becoming less evident with time. ECM today holds a spark of interest as it bucks the trend from the other operationals in as much as it rises pressure over NE Europe next week which absorbs the High near to SE Britain into a ridge which would result in a much increased risk of the weather staying cold, certainly over the South with lower temperatures extending North through the week. With a continental feed of air across the South sunny skies by day seem more possible but with the usual caveats of widespread night frosts and freezing fog patches which could become very stubborn and slow to clear over England and Wales with time. It should remain dry though. The GFS Ensembles are dreadful if it's cold your looking for with an almost blanket approach to milder conditions for all next week with High pressure to the SE. There are varying degrees to what influence that High pressure may have on conditions across the South and SE as some members show rain at times for all but if the High stays closer to the SE then things could stay rather dry with just occasional rain here with the majority of rainfall and strong winds likely in the North and West. The Jet Stream shows the flow moving SE down the North Sea later this week moving East before the trend this morning is for a new arm to move NE across the Atlantic and over the UK in the second half of the run then moving on NE towards Scandinavia over the top of High pressure over Europe. In Summary today it looks more likely than not that the end of the week's cold snap will be a blink and miss it affair with little significance away from the far North and NE where some snowfall in the form of showers may occur for a time. High pressure then builds back for a time next weekend before most output wants to shift it SE into mainland Europe bringing mild and changeable conditions across the UK with strong winds and rain at times, heaviest and most frequent towards the North and West. Then we have the 'ECM' model which throws a spanner in the works by building High pressure strongly over NE Europe next week which if evolved would totally change the complexion of conditions over the UK next week with frost and freezing fog patches along with brighter dry days much more likely next week with below average temperatures. However, it looks a little isolated and needs support from it's ensemble members and future runs to ascertain this as a trend to watch through the coming days.

Good evening. Here is the slightly late report from me on how I see the 12 noon outputs from the big 5 models for this evening Sunday December 1st 2013. All models show a quiet first half of the week as High pressure remains in control for the time being with slack and light winds and largely close to average temperatures. Through the middle of the week weak troughs move South over the UK with the later one bringing a substantial drop in temperature, especially over Northern and Eastern areas where snow showers will become a feature for a time with accumulations here and there. In the South and West though colder the weather will be fine and dry with sunny spells with frost developing overnight. GFS then shows a change to milder conditions soon after the beginning of next week with milder SW winds bringing cloudy and mild conditions with rain at times over the remainder of the run with strong winds at times and the heaviest rain towards the North and West. UKMO closes it's run with fine weather over all areas as High pressure is positioned over Southern Britain. The weather will be cold at the surface with some very sharp frost and fog patches, slow to clear in places. The far NW will become more cloudy and less cold later. GEM shows High pressure slipping away towards Southern Europe through the following week with fresh SW winds developing for all with some rain at times especially in the North and West. It would become milder everywhere. NAVGEM keeps cold and High pressure based weather early next week as High pressure slowly drifts East across the UK. Frost and fog at night would likely be problematical before a Southerly breeze picks up later. ECM tonight shows High pressure sliding over towards Germany towards the middle of next week with milder weather across the North and west though with largely overcast skies. In the South and East a continental feed of air may assist in keeping thing colder, especially overnight if cloud breaks occur when frost and fog is possible. It may be though that it stays rather cloudy and grey. The GFS Ensembles show a colder then milder spell before things return to fairly close to average. There are some colder options shown there, some with a Scandinavian High which could prove interesting in time if it evolves. Rainfall would be limited in the South until later in the run while the NW in particular sees more rainfall than elsewhere. The Jet Stream shows the flow turning Se across the UK and North Sea later next week before another change occurs and for the first time tonight this season the flow is shown to blow well South of the UK in Week 2 as pressure possibly builds to the NE. In Summary tonight the weather is set to turn colder later this week, albeit briefly. Some sleet or snow showers should be likely in the North and East with fewer showers in the West closest to High pressure moving in from the West. Thereafter the most popular solution looks to be for High pressure to be sliding away South or SE with milder SW winds developing but there is a lot of mileage over the coming days of this week for this pattern to change as it looks no means certain that this is how things will evolve.

Good morning. Sorry no report last night but too busy with work. However, here is today's account of how the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM look for today Sunday December 1st 2013. All models show a large annticyclone close to Ireland with a gentle Northerly flow over the UK. A lot of cloud is trapped under this HIgh pressure and will continue to dominate conditions over most areas for the first few days of the week with limited brightness and just a little overnight frost and fog if skies happen to clear somewhat overnight. By midweek most models show High pressure weakening slowly and allowing a weak cold front to slip South on Wednesday with a little rain travelling North to South over all areas. This is then followed by another one on Thursday, this time more marked with a switch to cold and strong NNW winds with wintry showers travelling South all the way down to Southern England by Friday. Frosts would return at night and snow showers would be falling thick and fast across some Northern and Eastern areas at times with even a few possible in the South for a time. Through next weekend all models illustrate High pressure moving in close to the South of the UK with the Northerly flow becoming cut off with a legacy of cold air over the South with clear skies giving rise to sharp night frosts and freezing fog patches while the North becomes less cold as winds settle from the West with more cloud spilling in too. GFS, in Week 2 shows High pressure moving away SE into Europe and allowing all areas become under the influence of an increasingly mild and strong SSW flow with Low pressure spiralling around in the Atlantic sending troughs towards the North and West with rain at times, though amounts in the East and SE would be small or non existent at times. At the very end of the run somewhat colder air may reach Southern and Eastern areas as a SE continental drift to the wind reaches these areas. UKMO today closes it's run next Saturday showing High pressure over Western Ireland with a decreasing but still very cold straight Arctic Northerly flow over the UK delivering snow showers to Northern and Eastern coastal areas in particular, all the way down to Essex and Kent. The West would become largely dry but cold with sunny spells and overnight frosts. GEM sinks High pressure away South from late next weekend and into the second week with a strong and less cold Westerly flow developing for all with rain at times too, chiefly but not exclusively in the North and West with average vlue temperatures by midweek. NAVGEM holds High pressure over the UK with a centre much further NW towards Greenland with a ridge SE across the UK. The end of it's run would be typified by very cold and frosty weather with snow showers dying away from NE areas apart from the far NE coast. Some sunny days would probably compensate for the very cold conditions. ECM today shows High pressure holding firm across Southern England having arrived here next Sunday. The North would slowly become less cold following the cold snap and a lot of cloud would encompass these areas off the Atlantic with little in the way of frost and fog then. These benign conditions will gradually extend South to Southern Britain too by the middle of Week 2 replacing the frost and fog patches of early in the week. The GFS Ensembles shows good support this morning for a short cold snap late this week and coming weekend to be followed by a NW/SE split in the weather with a long fetch SW'ly looking the most likely option. All areas would be at risk of some rain at times, only a little at times in the SE but with some wetter conditions to the North and West along with strong winds and temperatures everywhere recovering to above average. The Jet Stream shows the flow tilting to a more SE direction later this week down across the UK from it's current location which is well North of the UK. It then resets in a NE directions across the Atlantic and across Scotland through Week 2 indicating Low pressure to the NW and High pressure to the SE of Britain. In Summary the weather is set to turn colder briefly at the end of this week and next weekend with some snow possible for a time in the North and East and sharp overnight frosts in the cold North wind. In the meantime the weather will stay cloudy and benign with dry weather until a couple of weak fronts deliver the cold snap soon after midweek. Then through Week 2 it's all about where the High killing off the cold North feed ends up. The Americans seem to want to sink it SE over Europe quite quickly next week setting up a changeable and relatively mild and breezy SW feed with rain at times, mostly in the North and West while ECM shows High pressure holding across the South with a return to benign and increasingly cloudy and less cold conditions following a frosty start to the week. Which is right? It's a case of more runs needed I'm afraid.

No my thoughts were totally based on the UK as a whole. Don't assume that everyone who posts on this forum is biased to any weather type or location because I certainly am not one.

I don't post in here often, perhaps I should but I sometimes feel like saying 'I told you so' when wintry charts at 10-14 days out get watered down but that would come across as arrogant and cavalierish and I don't want to appear that way as I am often proved wrong myself as much as the next guy and certainly not afraid to admit. However, on this occasion I have never seen anything other than a short sharp cold snap and probably not even that. The reason, the Jet profile is all wrong for anything other than transitory cold over the UK for the next week or two as it remains strong and too far North and dare I say it looking even less likely in a few weeks as it looks like blowing NE strongly over the UK meaning High pressure is then likely to develop to the SE. While I appreciate what's happening at the pole and Canada can have a bearing on our UK weather outcomes it is only a small factor and it normally comes to pass that what's happening to the South and SW of the UK, (which no-one seems to want to mention) is what transpires as, let's face it living in the UK this is the prevailing direction for weather to want to come from. Despite what many people might think that read my reports I love the cold and snow as much any of the cold rampers but have been on this Earth long enough to be a realist in the knowledge that a lot of factors have to come together to make it happen on a wide scale over the UK and that sadly and in all honesty doesn't look like happening anytime soon. Rant over.

Hi everyone and good morning. Here is my no frills text account of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday November 30th 2013. All models continue to show High pressure in control of the UK weather for the next 3-4 days with a fine day today with plenty of sunshine but overall cloudy conditions developing from tonight with benign and quiet conditions lasting thereon until the middle of next week with temperatures close to average. The GFS operational then shows winds increasing across the North on Wednesday and further South on Thursday. A band of rain will be moving South across the UK on Wednesday followed by another on Thursday/Friday with clearer and colder conditions reaching the North briefly with wintry showers in places. This dry and cold weather may reach the South too very briefly before it is swept away NE by Low pressure along with milder, wet and windier weather later next weekend. This then sets up a much more mobile pattern with details irrelevant at this range but the general theme would be wet and windy weather alternating with brief colder interludes with wintry showers across the North at times. Overall temperatures would return to average but maybe returning rather colder later. UKMO this morning ends next week with cold weather plunging South on Friday with rain in the South clearing to showers of sleet and snow, albeit briefly and mostly across the North and coastal areas in the East and West next weekend with frosts at night and a cold and strong Northerly wind. GEM today shows no more than a glancing blow from the cold weather next weekend across principally Northern and Eastern areas where wintry showers may occur for a time with frost at night. Further South and West changes will be very tempered and in any event the trend from the start of the new week is for all areas to become mild and rather cloudy with Southerly winds from the Canaries to embalm the UK in mild air as we move into next week, perhaps with some rain in the North and West. NAVGEM shows a brief encounter with colder air next weekend preceded by some rain and a fresh West wind as a depression moves steadily East across the North. A day of wintry showers look possible before a brief ridge crosses East drying things up perhaps with a night frost or two next weekend with temperatures below average at that time. ECM today shows the most coherent cold snap next weekend with a two to three day window from next Friday of cold NW then North winds with snow showers, appreciable over Northern hills likely for a period. A ridge of High pressure moving steadily SE to our SW does show the flow being moderated by milder air rounding the High and down across the UK on a NW flow by the start of the new week with rather cloudy and benign conditions returning for many away from the far East where it may well still feel cold and breezy at times perhaps with a few showers, mostly of rain by then. The GFS Ensembles show that (leaving the operational run to one side as it looks very suspect this morning) the weather looks like staying generally close to average temperature wise as we move through the run. The cold snap though still present for the North and East makes little inroads over the South before SW winds and more changeable weather looks the favoured consensus between the members through the second half of the run. As mentioned with SW winds predominating later in the run and with High pressure likely to be to the SE it will be mild for many especially to the East of high ground with most of the rain towards the North and West. The Jet Stream currently travelling East at high latitudes well to the North of the UK slowly sinks further South as we go through next week as High pressure tries to give way somewhat. However, after a brief lull a surge of strong jet energy is then sent across the Atlantic and across the British Isles later in the run pumping up the potential for some deep Atlantic depressions to our NW later in the run, borne out by some of GFS's output this morning. In Summary there is still a period of quiet anticyclonic weather for most areas between now and Wednesday. However, all eyes are on events thereafter with potential for a cold plunge of air to occur over Britain next weekend albeit rather brief. The American models seem to want less to do with this and allows the South to escpae almost entirely while the North sees something of a glancing blow at colder weather for a time. The Euro models are more productive though with ECM leading the field in producing a 2-3 day window of very cold and wintry weather with snow showers and very sharp night frosts. Nevertheless, it looks nothing more than a brief affair with the Jet Stream shown to power up to our West later throwing the potential for the Atlantic to create some large depressions out to the NW with all areas looking favoured to come under their influence with spells of rain and showers along with occasional gales. Though technically mild towards the end of the period some colder injections could affect the North at times with wintry showers over the hills.

Good evening everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 29h 2013. All models remain in unison between now and the middle of next week with High pressure in control over or to the West of the UK with fine and dry weather. Some brighter conditions are likely tomorrow but anticyclonic gloom will gain momentum again across all areas through Sunday then likely last until midweek when Westerly winds freshen markedly across the North of the UK. Temperatures though not spectacular will likely remain average for the time of year with little in the way of frost and fog. GFS then shows a deepening Low move East close to Northern Scotland bringing stronger winds and rain followed by a dramatic drop in temperature as a cold front sweeps SE bringing rain to all and then following it with sleet and snow showers extending SE across many areas through Friday and into Saturday. Winds then steadily decreases and less cold conditions for a day next weekend with sharp overnight frost. Thereafter the operational model sees a rapid change to more active Atlantic based weather with spells of rain and severe gales at times but with some quieter and brighter spells in between. Temperatures will be close to average but it would sure feel cold in the windy and rainier periods with some snowfall at times on Scottish hills. UKMO tonight shows next Thursday as a much windier day with increasing Westerly winds veering NW or North later in the North. Rain crosses SE through the day with an abrupt drop in temperature behind it with snow showers affecting Northern and Western hills and coasts by the end of the day spreading SE. GEM shows a more glancing blow from the Northerly at the end of next week and start to the weekend with some wintry showers in the NE. The rest of the weekend becomes dry and cold as High pressure transfers across before deep Low pressure near Iceland and Greenland has a broad SW flow across the entire North Atlantic with disturbances running NE in the flow bringing rain at times in relatively mild conditions, the most rain likely towards the North and West. NAVGEM ends next week with no Northerly at all and instead keeping things very basic and ordinary for early December as High pressure slowly recedes away SE and allows a moderate and milder SW flow to bring the threat of rain at times, more especially towards Northern and Western areas. ECM tonight shows a colder snap later next week and the start of the weekend as a deepening Low runs East into Northern Europe and sends a plunge of cold air down across the UK with rain followed by a period of frequent sleet and snow showers with some accumulations in places over the hills of the North. As with previous runs the cold is relatively short-lived as High pressure moves ESE down across the South cutting off the flow and bringing less cold air back down over the UK by the start of the new week. Sharp night frosts could persist somewhat longer though in the South. The GFS Ensembles shows good support for a short cold snap late next week and equally good support for a warm up thereafter with temperatures likely to be exceeding the average in the week after next but with a more changeable weather pattern looking likely with rain at times. The Jet Stream shows the flow well to the North of the UK for the next three to four days before it moves SE down over the UK while the cold snap occurs next weekend. Thereafter the flow blows in a NE direction quite strongly over the Atlantic and across the British Isles pulling milder air NE over the UK should it evolve as shown. In Summary tonight the weather remains benign for the next four to five days with anticyclonic gloom and temperatures uninspiring but not cold. Soon after midweek much colder air is shown to blow down across all areas for a time. There would be snow showers coming thick and fast to Northern and Western coastal hills with drifting of the snow in the bitter wind through Friday and Saturday. The depth of cold is short-lived by all models but there are variations in the details of the weather to follow with much more mobility looking likely later with mild SW winds, rain and gales all featured in the later outputs supported too by many members of the GFS Ensembles. While all models as already stated support just a short cold snap late next week the depth of cold is quite marked this early in the season and the evolution taking us out of the cold may be more gradual than is currently shown in my opinion.

Hi everyone. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday November 29th 2013. All models maintain High pressure close to the West of Britain over the next three or four days. It's centre has pulled a little further West today which has allowed a colder and fresher NW flow down across the UK today behind a weak cold front, For most this will mean largely dry conditions still but brighter and cleaner air later will improve the complexion of the day. This weather type with a few showers, wintry on hills in the NW will last through until later tomorrow when the High moves back towards the UK and brings a return to cloudy skies down from the NW with benign and non-descript weather for the following few days, taking us towards the middle of next week when some change begin to take place. GFS then splits High pressure East and west of the UK but with very little difference felt at the surface as winds remain very light and slack over the UK away from a stiffer westerly breeze in the far North. Then at the end of next week, probably on Friday a cold front introduces cold and clearer air down to all areas with some wintry showers over the North and East for a time before High pressure returns across the UK with sharp frosts and fog patches. The second half of the operational today sinks High pressure down to the SE but close enough by to maintain largely fine conditions. Temperatures would steadily rise through the period with some very mild weather possible across Southern Britain later if a low level inversion can be avoided. UKMO today shows High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic next Thursday orientated West to East with a strong ridge across Southern Britain maintaining the theme of cloudy and largely dry weather with average temperatures for England and Wales while Scotland and Northern Ireland see a stronger Westerly wind and occasional rain later. GEM this morning shows High pressure close to or over Southern Britain towards the end of next week relaxing South briefly to allow a change in weather type to dry and cold weather with clearer skies later in the run with frost and fog at night becoming much more of an issue as High pressure builds back across all areas to end the run. NAVGEM shows High pressure close to the SW late next week with rather cloudy and dry conditions giving way to a spell of wet and windy weather in the North as a small Low zips East across Scotland. The South would probably see a little rain from this as it's cod front cleared SE. ECM shows a ridge across Southern Britain next Thursday with winds freshening markedly from the West with rain over the North. The High is then pulled West as a strong Northerly flow pushes down through Friday to all areas with very cold conditions with snow showers giving accumulations in Northern and Eastern areas for a time. Then through next weekend the cold air relaxes as winds back NW then West bringing less cold and more cloudy air across the UK from off the Atlantic with temperatures slowly returning to average. The GFS Ensembles show a rather cold set overall this morning with the operational I described above very much one of the warmest members of the pack later on. It looks like most members support a rather cold period between the 5th -11th and with some precipitation around sleet and snow is a possibility for a time, especially across the North and East while the South look likely to avoid this. As usual a wide range options are shown late in the run with the most likely scenario being a return to average early December values with rainfall amounts looking still quite suppressed through the period, especially in the South. The Jet Stream this morning is programmed to maintain it's path to the North of the UK for the next 5-6 days before it turns SE or South across the UK in association with the colder phase late next week. It then returns slightly further north to a positions between Scotland and Iceland thereafter on a NE course indicating a bias towards High pressure close to SE England. In Summary this morning the models are all over the place with conditions in the interesting part of the output from the middle of next week. In the shorter term the quiet and benign pattern remains with few features in the weather offering any interest with much cloud cover, light winds and temperatures close to average with little in the way of frost and fog away from tonight and possibly tomorrow night in the South. The fun and games begin later next week with some output showing a potent plunge of cold air from the North leading to some snowfall for some, more especially in the North and East. Some output make little of this pushing the thrust of this too far East while most others weaken it quite quickly as High pressure builds back in from the West with a spell of cold and clear weather with sharp frosts seeming likely before the inevitable infill of cloud returns with slowly less cold conditions and a return to what we have now possible. It remains interesting over the next few runs how this phase of potentially very cold weather is developed or dissolved to nothing more than a blip. Time alone will tell.

Yes it is cold and I agree but in the general view of things I think most people know what I mean.

Here we are copied across from my website from my own fair hand tonight. I wish it was a good omen for cold and snow but having seen the 12zs I'm afraid it's not. Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Thursday November 28th 2013. All models illustrate a spell of anticyclonic gloom coming to an end briefly as a cold front crosses SE across the British Isles tomorrow bringing cleaner and fresher air to all areas by tomorrow evening. Winds will strengthen markedly from the NW and could carry a few showers to NE Britain for a time before Saturday sees decreasing winds with quite a pleasant day for many before cloudier weather spills down from the NW to land us back to square one on Sunday with largely cloudy and non-descript weather to start next week with temperatures remaining close to the seasonal average as High pressure maintains a ridge across Britain from the West. Frost and fog would be relatively limited in amount through this spell with Friday and Saturday night's the only nights at substantial risk. GFS then shows a weak series of fronts cross SE soon after midweek with a little rain ahead of a colder phase, especially across NE areas while elsewhere stays dry and probably quite bright and only a little colder. By the weekend wet and windy weather spreads first across Northern Britain and then on to all areas as a deep Low crosses East to the North of Scotland and down over NW Europe. The cold front would bring a short spell of cold NW winds and potentially wintry showers of sleet and snow in the North before a ridge of High pressure brings a change to increasingly milder weather with any rainfall becoming more and more confined to Northern areas as Southern Britain sees some potentially very mild weather for a time. UKMO today shows High pressure well under control of the weather still over the UK with a strong ridge across Britain from a centre over mid Atlantic. The quiet and benign weather of early in the week looks like persisting with perhaps a few more brighter interludes by day and clearer interludes at night to promote a little more in the way of frost and fog. GEM shows a front moving South midweek with some occasional rain for a time before clearer conditions move down from the North and then another band of more coherent rain spreads down behind on a more active front and this time is followed by a spell of cold NW winds with wintry showers and night frosts to end the run. NAVGEM too shows a couple of fronts moving SE through the middle of next week, the second of which brings a spell of cold and showery weather with sleet or snow showers over all high ground and frost at night. ECM tonight shows a brief spell of rain midweek behind which a cold NW flow brings some wintry showers to the North and East before High pressure slides over from the West keeping things cold but bringing dry weather with frost and fog. By Day 10 it looks like Northern areas will see milder air moving in off the Atlantic while Southern areas stay flat calm under High pressure. The GFS Ensembles show a short colder interlude towards the back end of next week before the general trend is for thing to return to average by the end of the period. The current High pressure and precipitation less weather that we are currently experiencing will most likely continue for the next week or so before it is shown to give way to somewhat more unsettled conditions from many members later. Tonight's mild ending shown by the operational was a big mild outlier at the end of the run. The Jet Stream tonight shows the flow remains to the North of the UK before it is directed SE over the UK later next week. thereafter, the flow becomes indeterminate and hard to find a pattern from with many options possible. In Summary tonight there is still a week of High pressure based weather to wade through with benign and cloudy conditions with just a brief window of colder and fresher weather for 36-48hrs from Friday. Later next week still looks like turning cold across the UK with the threat of some sleet or snow in parts of the North especially but most output still indicate the North flow providing the cold being shunted East quite quickly and replaced by High pressure with frost and fog possibilities late in the period. It should also be noted that there still is a good chance that some milder weather will return over the UK late in the period as High pressure may become flattened to the South.

Having read some comments in posts mentioning my name this morning and in recent days it still seems a little unclear what my reports are all about. For most people on here and certainly those that read them via my website are only interested in whether it's going to rain or snow or not and it's these folks that my reports are directed towards. The sciences are drawn by many knowledgeable posters much more educated and qualified people than me and illustrated on this and other forums well. Remember my reports are posted across from my website and are compiled with my websites readers in mind and not any forum. If people on here think that I just use to blanket an approach perhaps it might be better just for me to provide a link to my website for the report each day and to not clutter up forum space. What do you think?

but this is the second consecutive ECM Ensemble suite that has not shown any great support for a prolonged cold period. This morning's was a little better but in my view even that was pretty poor if it was prolonged cold and snow you were after.

It comes as no surprise to me as it is what I was alluding too this morning but unfortunately some folk could see something that I couldn't. Still on a positive note it's a long way out and there's plenty of time for the pendulum to swing back the other way.

No not really. The pattern through this year has been very different with the Jet flow behaving itself in a much more normal position through the year hence the vastly drier weather this year compared to last and the favourable Summer too. The persistence of an Azores High over or displaced close to the UK is forming the basis of my early Winter thoughts though it may well become eroded later in the Winter. I know I've put my head on the block a little with the margin for error being narrow as has been touted in the Model Output thread today but I have seen nothing today to change my thoughts despite some earlier questioning my judgements in the aforementioned thread from some posters but that's fine. I am well aware that come March I could have a serious amount of egg on my face or it could end up being trumped as 'not a bad effort.' As always with weather only time will tell.

But with respect you are using GFS charts to back up data supplied by ECM and those temperature profile map readings are as useless as a chocolate fireguard at that range but hey ho everyone to their own.

IMO despite some optimism this morning I can't see any excitement to be gained from the 10 day mean chart of ECM. High pressure to the SW means there is no way cold will last a day or two on that synopsis. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

No it is not a guess. I have been studying weather for the last 40-50 years and put reasoning into my interpretations. I don't think I would be able to run a successful website on 'guess work'. In answer to your comment though my methods are given in the pretext to my forecast. I don't profess to be anymore accurate than the next guy but just because it's not what many want to read doesn't make it more likely to be right or wrong than if I was forecasting raging blizzards all Winter.