Gibby

Hi folks. Here is the report from the midnight outputs of GRS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday May 28th 2013. All models project similar synopses between now and the weekend with a series of troughs sliding South and SE over the British Isles around a depression gradually moving away to the East of Britain later in the week. Pressure is shown to begin to build towards the British Isles in time for the weekend replacing the rain and showers before that to something rather better. GFS then shows a fine weekend and start to the new week under a slow moving ridge extending from the High to the SW giving fine, bright and reasonably warm weather here. In the NW improvements will be tempered by SW winds and troughs brushing past from the SW with occasional rain here. Through FI a lot of dry and warm weather potential is shown although a period of slightly cooler and more showery conditions occur for a time as Low pressure moves in from the west, weakening as it does. By the end of FI things look very summery for many with high pressure over Germany wafting very warm air from Europe our way. The GFS Ensembles show continuing encouraging signs as upper rise above the long term mean later in the run. There is some, mostly small amounts of rain shown but on the whole a lot of dry and pleasant conditions look favoured. The Jet profile still flowing SE to the west of the UK looks like persisting for a day or two yet before it weakens and breaks down before the Northern arm realigns across the Atlantic to a position Eastwards to the North of Scotland by midweek next week. the Southern arm over North Africa looks set to persist. UKMO today shows High pressure close in to Southwest Britain by early next week with dry and fine weather likely for all areas though cloud amounts may be quite large at times restricting sunshine. Temperatures would most likely be close to average for early June. GEM today is the only model that maintains the original plan of ridging High pressure further West towards NW Scotland and up to the North of the UK. As a result improvements would only be notable for the North and west with fine and dry weather here while the East and South see lower pressure and the risk of showers persist. NAVGEM shows high pressure ridging across the UK to leave an open ridge over the UK at the term of the run as the main centre transposes NE. The weather would become largely fine and dry with sunny spells in reasonable temperatures nationwide. ECM today shows the High ridging across from the SW before collapsing away over France allowing a new Low pressure to move in from off the Atlantic with a spell of rain followed by showers later next week replacing the few days of fine and settled conditions of late in the weekend.and start of the week. In Summary the weather still looks set to improve over the weekend and next week. To what extent and longevity is still open for debate as there is little consistency between the outputs on where to evolve the High's position too beyond the weekend. It does appear though that a lot of dry weather is likely next week with just amounts of cloud and level of temperatures less clear. Nevertheless, I think many would settle with the synoptics as shown because if the sun does break through at this time of year it will feel warm especially with winds looking to be quite light over the UK.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Bank Holiday Monday May 27th 2013. All models show Low pressure sliding SE over the UK along an axis of an occluded trough lying North to South pivoting NW to SE later tonight and tomorrow. An area of rain will move slowly East across Southern England tonight becoming slow moving from the SE to NW Britain. Through Wednesday and the days leading up to the weekend Low pressure will remain off to the East of Britain maintaining a Northerly feed with occasional showers and the odd longer spell of rain too feeding down from the NW in the flow. GFS then shows the weekend under improving conditions as High pressure ridges in from the SW elongating across the UK to start next week with plenty of dry and bright weather with sunny spells, in which it will feel quite warm in temperatures near to average for early June. Later in the week pressure becomes slack over the UK with the risk of showers somewhat higher for a time as weak upper atmosphere troughs get hung up over the UK. Then towards the end of the run the weather deteriorates more radically over the south as Low pressure edges up into the South with rain at times here while the North stays largely dry and bright with some sunshine especially in the West. The GFS Ensembles show 850 uppers still above the average in the second half of the output while the operational above was on the warm side of the pack in the second half. Rainfall amounts are relatively small later in the run for all but certainly not non-existent. The Jet Stream shows the flow moving SE to the West of the UK before the flow weakens and becomes disorganized for a time. later in the run a renewed split flow develops with the Southern arm way South over Southern Europe while the Northern arm moves East across the Atlantic between Iceland and Scotland UKMO tonight shows High pressure moving in closer to the UK over the weekend with a diminishing risk of showers and bright conditions with good sunny spells and average temperatures. GEM shows a much less settled evolution tonight with High pressure held further West and maintaining a Northerly feed over the UK with Low pressure flirting with the East Coast throwing occasional rain and showers along with a cool breeze down across the UK. Towards the end of the run High pressure moves further away North of Scotland maintaining some influence over the North with fine and dry weather persisting while Southern Britain remain far more likely to see occasional rain or showers in association with Low pressure to the South and later SW. NAVGEM tonight is also fairly unsettled and also shows reluctance in bringing High pressure into the UK at a position to benefit all. As with GEM the High benefits the NW with fine and dry conditions eventually developing here while Northerly winds on the Western flank of Low pressure areas over the near Continent maintain cooler and more unsettled conditions towards the South and East. ECM tonight again looks like showing us the reason why the Meto mid term outlook has shown a lot more pessimism towards a drier and warmer period that some of the models suggest. Again tonight the High ridges North too far West to benefit much of the UK away from the NW with Northerly winds persisting through the weekend with scattered showers before the new week sees a further surge of energy moving South over the North Sea and positioning itself over the UK for the end of the run with heavy showers and light winds for all. In Summary tonight there is a continuing difference of opinion between the output with High pressure held too far West and eventually North to have a UK wide effect on the weather. If I had to choose a model with the best closing chart I would choose the UKMO model tonight as it brings High pressure in towards the UK on a better trajectory to the rest. However, it's 144hr charts have a poor verification record so perhaps looking at it in isolation throws some doubt on its credibility. I think it's fair to say that those hoping for a very warm and settled spell with lots of sunshine could be disappointed as it looks more and more like evolving as reasonable weather with average temperatures being the most likely outcome with any such spells' longevity open to doubt too.

Good morning folks. Here is my interpretation of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Bank Holiday Monday May 27th 2013. All models show an unsettled week to come. All areas will be influenced by the transit of Low pressure from the far NW today to a position off SE England later in the week. After all areas experience a period of rain today and tonight a mix of sunshine and showers with some longer spells of rain here and there predominate from Tuesday to Friday with a return to rather cool conditions generally as winds turn towards the North later in the week. GFS then shows next weekend as a showery one with a Northerly flow generating showers and sunny intervals with the heaviest showers towards the East. A ridge of high pressure is then squeezed out of existence as it crosses East early next week ahead of fronts moving in from off the Atlantic with more cloud and rain in tow for most. This breezy and unsettled weather remains until the second weekend when High pressure develops from the South slowly extending it's influence North to all areas eventually with a centre just to the West of the UK with a strong ridge across Britain ensuring fine, warm and sunny conditions. The GFS Ensembles still look fairly healthy this morning with the vast majority of members supporting a rise of uppers to above average levels in a weeks time, maintained thereafter. The operational was a warm outlier at the end and precipitation is still shown scattered about throughout the warmer stages indicating that the weather will not be totally High pressure based. The Jet Stream shows the flow still blowing SE to the west of the UK for a few more days before it breaks up and becomes very weak, certainly around the UK and NW Europe. A thin jet streak then is indicated way South over Europe and way North near the Arctic Circle. UKMO today shows a cool and showery weekend likely under a Northerly flow. A ridge of High pressure is just to the West of the UK but to me it looks under pressure from further Atlantic developments off Southern Greenland to threaten the UK later next week. GEM today shows High pressure having built way up to the North of the UK with the net result of keeping things at risk of being or remaining showery over Southern Britain while the North sees the driest and brightest weather. At the close of it's run it looks as if a North/South split will develop over the following days with an unsettled South and dry North. NAVGEM shows a NW flow at the weekend maintaining cool and breezy weather with scattered showers. A weak ridge then crosses from the West ahead of an Atlantic depression bringing rain in from the West by midweek. ECM shows a showery weekend under a Northerly flow. A weakening ridge then looks like being squeezed across the UK, weakening somewhat as equally weak upper air disturbances allow rather cloudier weather to accompany it with the odd shower, chiefly in the North. In the South though the middle section of next week would not be too bad with some decent warmth to any sunny spells and light winds. In Summary the better spell I've indicated in recent runs looks far from nailed this morning as all models to some degree or another have watered down the full on High pressure expanse shown on previous output. There will still be a ridge of sorts to cheer things up but it's unlikely to have much affect on the weather until early next week with plenty of changeable conditions with outbreaks of showers or rain until then for most. Upon arrival it then becomes under pressure from developments off Southern Greenland either as a charge of SW winds and fronts moving East over Britain or as a cut off feature such as GEM shows bringing a North/South split in the weather later next week with the North seeing the best share of dry and bright weather while the South lies under the threat of Low pressure and showers. The one constant though is behind the current upcoming spell of chilly weather from next week on it does look like being somewhat warmer as the direct Northerly feed loses it's impetus.

Hi everyone. Here is the evening review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday May 26th 2013. All models show the ridge of high pressure crossing the UK collapsing away tomorrow as Low pressure deepening to the NW of Britain pushes a trough East across the UK tonight and tomorrow reaching SE England by evening. Through the middle of the week a very showery spell seems likely with heavy and thundery showers across all areas. Later in the week pressure is shown to build into the UK from the Atlantic with showers becoming more and more restricted to the far SE by the end of Friday with plenty of dry and increasingly sunny conditions developing for the majority of Britain before the weekend. GFS then shows the weekend with pressure continuing to build over the UK with dry and bright conditions for many with temperatures close to average. Through the following week more unsettled conditions edge back into many parts of the UK from the NW for a time before pressure rebuilds by the end of the week and this time some real summer warmth could become established over the UK along with good sunny spells. The GFS Ensembles show the strongest support yet for a strong rise in uppers later this coming week and more especially in week 2. There seems every chance that the unsettled and cool weather of this week may be replaced by drier and warmer conditions with some summery sunshine developing with fewer of those pesky showers. The Jet Stream shows the flow still flowing SE just to the West of the UK joining the Southern arm over Southern Europe. Later this coming week the flow weakens and eventually peters out altogether around the UK along with the Eastern and Central parts of the Atlantic. UKMO tonight shows a Northerly flow over the UK and the end of the working week and start of the weekend. A strong ridge of High pressure is building towards NW Britain from the SW with fine and dry conditions here with sunny spells. In the East and SE a cooling Northerly flow could still bring the odd light shower but even here plenty of dry weather will be enjoyed. Temperatures will be close to average for most. GEM tonight shows High pressure ridging towards NW Britain at the end of the week moving further on to show a High centre developing close to the NW while Southern and Eastern areas become influenced by a somewhat cooler NE wind with variable cloud cover and the odd shower. NAVGEM too shows the same theme with the Highest pressure close to NW Britain from next weekend with fine weather for most but no heatwave yet as winds stay NE down over the East and SE. ECM tonight is desperately trying to join the party and eventually does so though patience is required as it keeps a stronger Northerly influence down over the UK all the way to Sunday with some showers to boot too which could be heavy in the afternoons and more especially in the South. Late in the run High pressure builds NE deeper into the UK mostly cutting off the North feed from all but the far SE early next week. Plenty of dry and settled weather would be experienced and it may become comfortably warm for many in the prolonged sunshine. The 240hr chart does indicate some concern though as a void is developing over the UK from the receding ridge South-westwards which could open the door for another surge of low pressure energy from the NW in the following days. In Summary there is still a good and in some instances a growing trend for dry and settled conditions to develop for 90% of the UK beyond next weekend as High pressure builds into the UK from the SW. There are some 'if's' and 'but's' still to be nullified before confidence is complete but with each passing output the chances of it verifying are increasing. The output does not reflect the mid term outlooks delivered from the Met earlier today but I'm sure if such improvements are still held on the midnight runs I'm sure there will be better news from them tomorrow and most certainly on Tuesday. Leaving this weeks rainfall aside and the slight worry of the ECM 240hr chart there is a good chance that sustained dry weather could last quite a while should High pressure build as shown tonight.

Hi everyone from a sunny West Country. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday May 26th 2013. All models show a ridge of High pressure over the UK currently. This will be replaced tomorrow by Low pressure feeding down from the NW and sending an occluded trough East across the UK over Bank Holiday Monday and overnight into Tuesday with rain and freshening breezes in association with it for all areas. Thereafter a period of sunshine and showers looks likely as Low pressure is shown to sink SE over the UK through Tuesday and Wednesday before exiting away from SE England on Thursday leaving a less unstable NW flow for most parts with the showers restricted to the SE by Thursday. GFS then shows a weak ridge crossing the UK from the NW on Friday with a dry and bright period but a bit on the cool side before a showery trough moves South over Saturday. Pressure then builds strongly over the UK with High pressure over Ireland and Wales ensuring dry and warmer conditions with sunny spells next weekend. The trend through FI this morning is for High pressure to remain in control of the UK weather with various positions occupied by slack and open centres maintaining largely dry and quiet conditions with temperatures on the warm side of average and just the risk of the occasional shower later. The GFS Ensembles show that unfortunately the operational run described above was on the top of the tree with regard to temperatures in the second half of the run. Nevertheless, the trend is an upward one still with most areas achieving temperatures close to average or a smidgen above by a week's time. Rainfall spikes while scattered about throughout the output are never exempt indicating some involvement with showery Low pressure remains possible. The Jet Stream shows a continuation of the pattern of late with a separate arm way South over Europe while the Northern arm moves across the Atlantic towards the UK before turning South to the West of the UK. The Northern flow become disorganized and broken later this week with some support for the flow to rise further North away from mainland Britain between Scotland and Iceland next weekend. UKMO today shows a slightly showery NW flow to end the week and start of the weekend. With pressure relatively High quite close to the SW the showers would be concentrated towards Northern areas whereas parts of the South could see drier conditions with some sunshine. With winds in the NW it will never be overly warm at this point. GEM today shows improvements as we move through next weekend as a ridge of high pressure builds down from the High over Northern Scandinavia. Away from North Sea coasts conditions would become mostly dry with some sunny spells with average temperatures. On North Sea English coasts low cloud and sea haar could give rise to rather cool and dull conditions here. NAVGEM too shows slow improvements next weekend with a strong ridge trying desperately hard to get into Western Britain. However, even by the end of day 7 a small Low near East Anglia is sufficiently close to promote showers and cool conditions under a Northerly wind for many Central and Eastern parts. ECM continues it's trend of building High pressure to the North of the UK later next weekend but on it's transit NE this morning it takes it way NE of the UK to Northern Scandinavia with the UK in no mans land under a shallow cool pool in association with shallow Low pressure over much of Europe. The net result of this weather-wise is to see slow improvements next weekend never reaching the SE with scattered showers here. The risk of showers then spreads to many areas later as the cool pool aloft expands to affect other areas too. Temperatures would be unlikely to be better than average by day and night's would most certainly stay cool. In Summary the High out West is having to work hard on displacing the cool and showery feed of air over the UK this coming week. It is shown to succeed in varying degrees of success with GFS leading the field in this evolution today. Most of the others show half-hearted improvements especially in the West and north with some decent dry and fine weather to be enjoyed. Further South and East we are made to wait rather longer and in some cases shown improvements don't reach these areas at all with a chilly Northerly aspect to the airflow maintained resulting in continuing bright weather but with a risk of showers, average only temperatures and very chilly nights still for June. As in previous runs the lines are very fine lines and it wouldn't take much of a shift in the pattern to show vast improvements for all or conversely more unsettled conditions for all. The one constant it looks like there is unlikely to be high temperatures in the next two weeks over the UK though that's not to say that there won't be any pleasant weather to be enjoyed either. It really is down to a case of one's perception as to what constitutes decent weather in June.

Hi folks. Here is tonight's review of the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 25th 2013. All models show similar conditions between now and Wednesday of next week. A ridge of high pressure is crossing from the West tonight and tomorrow with light winds and plenty of clear skies away from the cloudier NW where there will continue to be a little rain. Chilly conditions overnight will give way to a warm afternoon tomorrow. By Monday Low pressure will be moving down from the NW towards NW Britain sending an occlusion East over the UK with rain marching West to East through the day. By Tuesday and Wednesday the Low pressure is transiting SE over the UK and away to the SE with attendant rain and heavy showers featuring for all areas over these days. GFS shows a reasonable day on Thursday as a weak ridge topples across the UK from the West with few if any showers and sunny spells for most. On Friday a front brings occasional rain East over Britain followed by a strong rise of pressure from the SW by the weekend with Southern and Eastern parts becoming quite warm and sunny while the North and West sees moist SW winds and rain or drizzle at times. Through FI tonight High pressure dominates the UK weather almost entirely innitially centred near or over the UK with increasingly warm and humid conditions. Thereafter although High pressure remains in control things will probably not be as straightforward as being just sunny, warm and dry as prevailing winds and small upper air features are all shown and will totally determine what conditions are felt at the surface. Having said that it's a relatively dry and settled if not overly warm outlook with plenty of dry and bright weather and just the risk of a scattering of showers at times. The GFS Ensembles still show an increase in uppers though it should be noted that the operational was a warm outlier in the second half of the run in the South. Nevertheless, uppers are likely to be above average from about a week's time and with generally smaller amounts of precipitation shown than recently we must assume high pressure should be well in control. The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing the Atlantic and turning SE over or to the West of the UK to the Southern arm over Southern Europe. Later next week the link to the Southern arm is severed with a weakish flow then deflected NE to the North of the UK from next weekend. UKMO tonight shows a NW flow across the UK with disturbances running SE at times enhancing the general mix of sunshine and showers. These will probably well scattered in the South while Northern areas bear the brunt of them. In NW breezes we should only expect average temperatures at best from these synoptics. GEM tonight shows Low pressure clearing the SE slowly later next week with drier conditions gradually replacing the showery midweek conditions. Improvements are slow in the SE while High pressure ridges NE over the North and West of Britain with attendant fine and potentially warmer and sunnier weather. The High later centred to the North of the UK by the end of the run. This sets up an Easterly flow, strongest in the South where the proximity of low pressure to the South could give rise to some thundery showers here. NAVGEM shows a West or Northwest flow towards the end of it's run with further showery troughs making there way down from the NW and becoming slow moving close to the East Coast. A lot of dry and reasonable weather will be a quite common occurrence next week but there will be areas of showers at times probably most concentrated towards the East where some could be heavy. The model shows average temperatures at best from tonight's charts. ECM tonight is a little slower in getting improvements into the UK holding a showery disturbance down over the UK through Thursday with some heavy and thundery showers in rather cool conditions in a Northerly flow. However, therafter the model recovers somewhat as a large High pressure block does become centred to the North of the UK with a gentle NE flow over the UK and a showery trough painfully close to Southern Britain. In addition with such a long sea track over the North Sea such warm uppers will incur much moisture development with widespread sea haar and low cloud becoming problematical for Eastern Coastal Counties and even some Central areas at times. By day 10 High pressure is maintained to the North with a potentially thundery low pushing heavy thundery showers up into the South In Summary tonight the dangers I exposed in my summary report this morning to the improvements logged have manifested themselves tonight as a slight shift in position of very small features and upper cold pools ultimately shows marked changes when percolated down to surface conditions. There is very little overall change to the pattern from this morning synoptically and it is important not to treat what I'm saying as pattern changing, things could easily swing back more favourably tomorrow morning. The one constant that can be noted from the longest term projections from GFS and ECM though is the consistency to keep the best conditions towards more Northern locations while in the South furthest from the High pressure more showery incursions look possible. Overall temperatures look like recovering to levels we should expect in June and possibly rather warm at times especially towards the NW.

Hi folks. Here is the report taken using the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 25th 2013. All models show a pleasant weekend to come as a ridge moves across the UK from the West giving light winds and sunny periods by day and clear, cool weather at night. A weak trough over NW Britain keeps things cloudier here with a little rain. By Monday a deep depression moves SE towards NW Britain with strengthening winds bringing rain East across the UK in association with troughs of Low pressure through the day. On Tuesday and Wednesday all of the UK remain under the influence of this feature as it drifts SE over the UK returning rather cool and unsettled conditions for all. GFS then shows the latter part of next week under a NW flow. A ridge on Thursday though would give a drier and brighter day with further rain on Friday in rather cool conditions still. Next weekend then shows to be slightly warmer as a warm front crosses NE with a moist and cloudy SW flow following but some brightness and warmth possible in the SE for a time. Cooler and more unsettled weather then returns while a trough crosses East before the end of FI sees a transformation into a warm and sunny spell as High pressure takes complete domination over all areas centred over Scotland. The GFS Ensembles still show a warming trend this morning and with less rainfall spikes this morning there seems to be a trend towards drier conditions even in the South which indicates better High pressure influence. There is no indication of any heatwave status from the members yet though but most of us will settle from what looks like the chance of a spell of very acceptable weather generally. The Jet Stream shows the flow still moving SE over or just to the West of the UK. More encouragingly this morning it then breaks up with a weak flow maintained over Southern Europe while the Northern arm moves East over Britain late next week trending North. UKMO today has improving weather over the UK later next week with Low pressure having moved way off over Eastern Europe with High pressure near the Azores. A slack Northerly flow would most likely deliver largely dry conditions with broken cloud and just the chance of a light shower. Never overly warm though. GEM holds Low pressure close to Eastern Britain rather longer while meaning a greater shower risk later next week, especially towards the East. A strong High just West of Britain refuses to enter UK air space and maintains it's position just to the NW with the SE under a shallow trough with showers prevalent still here at the end of the run. Still on the cool side for many. NAVGEM shows a showery NW airflow late next week and into the weekend with cool breezes everywhere. The showers could be heavy with hail and thunder in places, especially in the North. Some decent breezy dry spells may occur in the South with more scattered showers here. ECM today shows a ridge of High pressure late next week settling things down with sunshine developing widely by Friday as the chilly Northerly aspect to the wind finally dissipates. It will slowly become less cool. With the Jet Stream having moved North towards Iceland the weather finally looks more like Summer for a time as the Azores High stretches across the UK next weekend with long sunny spells and increasingly warm conditions developing for all. However, it might not last long as colder uppers from the North look like infiltrating down over Eastern Britain late in the run with a developing cold pool re-introducing showers from the North by Day 10. In Summary this morning the improvements I mentioned last night have continued to gain slow momentum this morning with all models except NAVGEM showing at least encouraging signs of improvement in the weather over the UK from the end of next week. Finally it looks like the Azores High may make it's move towards the UK following the exit of the depression from midweek's unsettled period. It isn't going to be a straightforward transition though as there will be various cold pools of upper air scattered about which could scupper things and in any event heatwave conditions look unlikely at this stage. Nevertheless, one step at a time and I think this is the best set of output I have reported on for some considerable time. Let's hope it's maintained for the 12z's later.

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12z output from GFS, UKMO< GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 24th 2013. All models show the Low pressure close to SE England this evening filling and moving away South overnight taking it's showers and strong cold winds with it. In it's place comes a rare visitor to our shores in the shape of a ridge of High pressure crossing gently East over the weekend giving rise to dry and fine conditions with sunny spells and temperatures back up to the seasonal average though with chilly nights. On Bank Holiday Monday the weather will deteriorate again as a deepening Low pressure moves close to NW Britain pushing troughs East over the UK through the day. GFS then takes us into the shortened working week with a complex area of Low pressure over or close to the UK moving SE with rain or showers through the midweek period before winds settle Northerly at the end of the week in response to High pressure close to Western Ireland. Over the weekend the high remains in situ maintaining a cool Northerly flow over Britain with some showers scattered around. Little overall change to this pattern of High to the West and NW and Low to the South and East sees winds continuing to blow from between North and East with occasional showers, especially in the South but a lot of dry weather too but never overly warm. The GFS Ensembles, though rather warmer than currently show nothing remarkably warm in the next few weeks. Temperatures look more likely to be close to average at best and with rain spikes scattered about throughout the run, especially in the South High pressure looks favoured to persist to the West and North with showery Low pressure to the East and South. The Jet Stream shows the flow moving SE over or to the West of the UK over the coming week before the flow breaks down to become weak or almost non-existent towards the end of next week. UKMO shows a NW/SE split at the end of it's run following an unsettled midweek period with rain or showers. These will become confined to more SE areas at the end of the run with NW areas seeing drier and brighter conditions in association with a weak ridge close by. GEM shows an unsettled spell too for the early and midweek period of next week with rain or showers. It takes until the weekend before marked improvements begin to take shape in the form of High pressure moving up from the SW with a gradual transition to dry and warmer conditions with light winds to end the run. NAVGEM shows very unsettled conditions next week with rain and showers for all as Low pressure slips South close to the South by Thursday and away SE by the weekend with a slack NW flow with just scattered showers taking over at the weekend with bright or sunny spells and average temperatures. ECM tonight also shows an unsettled spell through the middle section of next week before High pressure from the Azores tries hard to achieve a link with the High well to the Northeast of the UK next weekend. While not ideal for the South many Northern and Western areas would become drier next weekend while an upper air disturbance promotes shower formation over SW areas. However, a good deal of dry and settled weather could develop in the South too with sunny spells and just slack Northerly winds. By Day 10 High pressure has centred between Scotland and Iceland with a weak ridge from it down over the UK. Fine and dry weather would be likely for all and while not a heatwave some respectable temperatures bordering on warm could develop with time. In Summary tonight's charts looks like a gradual improvement is on the cards. High pressure does look more and more likely to play more of a role in the conditions over the UK from about a week or so time. Improvements look like being from the NW but it looks like it could be a painfully slow process for Southern Britain to see full benefits from this improvement. With the UK always on the cool side of any High pressure belt shown tonight nowhere will see heatwave conditions in the next two weeks if all tonight's charts verify but a good deal of bright and at times sunny weather would likely develop which many people will settle for. It maybe though that a weakness in pressure either over or close to the South of the UK could scupper these improvements down here as many charts including the GFS Ensembles show showery Low pressure close by to the South.

Hi Folks. Here is the report of the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Friday May 24th 2013. Today shows all models with a Low pressure area close to SE England with a cold and blustery Northerly flow on it's Western flank. This moves away late today and tonight with a ridge of High pressure bringing warmer and drier weather for all areas over the weekend in light winds. By Bank Holiday Monday pressure falls again as a Low pressure area deepens to the NW of the UK and pushes a trough Eastwards across the UK in true Bank Holiday fashion bringing rain for all at some point though it may be the end of the day before it reaches the SE of England. Through next week the weather over the UK is then governed by the behaviour of this depression. GFS has it sliding SE across the UK and away to the SE leading to a cool and showery week with some bright and warmer sunny intervals for the favoured between the showers. By the weekend a slack NW flow looks likely with an upper trough relaxing South over the UK. Winds will then slowly turn towards the NE or East with High pressure building to the North. Further showers would occur becoming restricted to the South later with the North becoming dry and bright as well as somewhat warmer. Through the rest of FI the North continues to see the best of the conditions with the South remaining at risk of showers as low pressure close to the South or SW is maintained. Temperatures would improve though and it would feel rather warm in places, especially in any prolonged sunnier spells. The GFS Ensembles show generally improving levels to a point more average or above with time though we may have to be patient. The North looks favoured for the best of the conditions as High pressure looks more likely to be close by here while Southern areas though warmer could still see scattered showers but plenty of dry and more importantly warmer weather here too. The Jet Stream continues to flow SE either over then to the West of the UK towards Southern Europe. The flow weakens later and becomes diffuse around the UK and the Atlantic Ocean. UKMO today shows Low pressure in control of the UK weather centred on Thursday over Germany having crossed the UK in previous days. The legacy will be a light to moderate North to NE flow with sunshine and scattered daytime showers over the UK especially towards the SE. GEM today shows Low pressure too close to SE England next Thursday before a strong build of pressure from the West later brings a spell of fine and warm conditions for next weekend. NAVGEM keeps High pressure further to the SW following the exiting depression later next week with a resultant NW flow maintaining cool conditions with sunshine and scattered showers in places to close the run. ECM today tries hard to build High pressure in from the West late next week but does so in a half-hearted manner as an upper feature could maintain a showery pattern over the UK despite pressure above 1020mbs for many with most of the showers in the north and west. It would at least feel rather warmer though. In Summary I am optimistic of something of an improvement in the longer term charts this morning backed up by the GFS Ensembles. It's well agreed that we will have to endure yet another depression's wind, rain and showers at times next week but beyond that there is a good chance that things will turn rather warmer with temperatures near average or a little above as we move into June. Without full blooded High pressure sat over the UK to say that all areas would become totally dry would be foolhardy at this range but it does indicate that there would be a fair amount of dry, bright and warm weather to be found beyond next week though the odd showers would still be possible. I await tonight's 12zs with interest to hopefully see a maintained trend.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 22nd 2013. All models show a developing Low in the North Sea drifting SSW towards SE England by tomorrow lunchtime. Some unusually cold and inclement weather is expected for Eastern areas with many other areas of England seeing heavy showers too while Scotland and Northern Ireland see drier and brighter conditions which will spread to all areas of Britain over the weekend. By bank Holiday Monday the next Low pressure will be approaching from thee NW with rain and freshening winds reaching most areas by the end of the day. GFS then takes us through next week with Low pressure in control but with it's centre nearer the North than previously with a sunshine and shower mix the most likely weather for the week. With Westerly or NW winds some areas may fair quite well missing many of the showers with some pleasant sunshine to be enjoyed. Other areas may see a succession of showers with some heavy ones accompanied by hail and thunder here and there in the afternoons. By the weekend the weather will be improving as a weak ridge crosses slowly in from the West with the weather next weekend closely replicating that of this coming weekend over the UK. Later in FI upper air disturbances getting caught up in the slack winds over the UK could produce further showers, most likely in the South but with a lot of fine and dry weather persisting with OK temperatures for most. The GFS Ensembles show a steady rise in uppers beyond the weekend with a sharp rise between now and then. The weather will remain unsettled though drier conditions might develop more later in the output to accompany the higher uppers which settle somewhat above average late in the run especially in the North. The Jet Stream continues to flow SE over the UK or to the West over the week ahead joining the Southern arm still blowing over areas of Southern Europe. The flow falls light at the end of the run showing as a light flow blowing into the UK from the West. UKMO tonight shows Low pressure having moved SE to be close to Southern England by midday next Wednesday with unsettled weather for all with rain or showers at times and just brief bright intervals and temperatures still technically cool feeling. GEM tonight shows Low pressure to the NW early next week becoming sucked SE into NW Europe with a spell of unsettled and showery conditions for all before an improvement develops later from the NW. By the end of the run High pressure has ridged NE across the UK to give a spell of warm and settled conditions with some warm sunny spells especially in the North and West with rather cloudier conditions in a NE breeze persisting in the far SE. NAVGEM too shows Low pressure slipping SE too next week with unsettled conditions for all before improvements move gradually down to at lest Northern and Western areas by the end of the run. ECM too shows the Low pressure early next week staying further North than it's counterpart models restricting the extent of the unsettled weather with a mix of sunshine and just scattered showers likely for the few days following the rainy Bank Holiday Monday. As the Low fills a new depression develops in it's place and becomes a complex structure over the UK by the end of the run throwing further spells of rain and showers for all by the second weekend. In Summary there is still some indecision on how things pan out involving the depression's movements early next week. UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM has it migrating SE through the week to be to the SE of the UK by the end of next week while GFS and ECM hold it further NW limiting it's affects to just scattered showers in a Westerly breeze with the majority of showers in the north as well as allowing temperatures to recover somewhat. With it moving to the SE there is a better chance of a rise of pressure from the NW ala GEM while holding it further NW keeps the better weather in the South while there is always the chance of renewed fronts and unsettled weather feeding in later such as ECM shows. It's the age old case tonight of 'more runs needed'.

Hi everyone. Here is today's A.M. Report on the overnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday May 23rd 2013. All models continue to show a cold 48 hours to come as Low pressure develops and slips down the North Sea to be centred near East Anglia tomorrow. A cold and strong North flow will ensure a showery day today and maybe more prolonged rainfall in the East tomorrow before an improvement reaches NW Britain later tomorrow and then extends steadily SE in time for the weekend. A window of very light winds and bright or sunny conditions look like coinciding with the weekend to give all areas a surprisingly decent Bank Holiday weekend. However, Low pressure will be deepening to the NW on Bank Holiday Monday with rain and strengthening winds to these parts through the day but it maybe these conditions do not reach the South and SE until very late in the day. GFS then shows Low pressure moving very slowly ESE across the UK through the week with spells of rain and showers scattered about with brief drier and brighter interludes around too. By the weekend the Low has filled and given way to a shallow ridge of High pressure which again coincides with the weekend to give a warm and sunny spell in many places. This improvement is then maintained later in FI with dry and sunny weather to many Northern and Western areas as High pressure lies to the North. Southern areas too will see some of this weather but on the operational an upper cold pool moves SW later giving rise to thundery showers here. The GFS Ensembles show the current very cool weather giving way to less cool conditions at the weekend and beyond. The trend is slightly upwards through the run but with unsettled conditions at the surface any lifting of uppers beyond the seasonal average may be marred by cloud cover and rain or showers as there is still plenty of members showing precipitation throughout the output, over England especially. The Jet Stream continues to descend across the Atlantic either over or to the West of the UK towards Southern Europe with the UK keeping itself on the cool side of the flow and in the target zone for Low pressure systems migrating down from the NW on the flows Eastern flank. UKMO today has Low pressure centred over Central England with showers or rain at times circulating around it with nowhere immune. There will be some drier and brighter spells mixed in too with temperatures average at best. GEM today shows the same Low pressure for the first half of next week slipping down close to Northern Britain and affecting all areas. With time the Low fills and pressure builds gently from the South to bring next weekend into drier and brighter weather in many Central and Southern areas with temperatures on the rise. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure slipping SE into Scotland early next week where it revolves around the UK for several days before slipping further SE into NW Europe at the end of it's run. Showers and rain at times would be the likely tone of the weather over the UK with some dry and bright spells for some in between and temperatures still bordering on cool conditions overall. ECM finally shows little better conditions with the same Low creating unsettled conditions through much of next week. Towards the end of the run the Low fills and isobars do open up allowing lighter winds. However, pressure fails to rise substantially and with a prevailing Westerly flow and Low pressure just to the North and West further incursions of unsettled weather looks likely beyond Day 10 especially considering there is so much Northern blocking over the Arctic still present. In Summary the weather over the next two weeks or so can best be described as changeable. It will not be a total washout with some spells of drier and brighter conditions when,because it's June some warm sunshine could be felt. The main share of the weather will be given over to Low pressure either centred over or near to the UK with nowhere really for it to go once arrived giving many days of rather cloudy weather with showers or longer spells of rain scattered around. It will often feel cool under these with temperatures overall unlikely to exceed average values at best unless the later GFS operational run verifies. The weather appears to be stuck in a rut at the moment and we need to rid the Northern blocking shown by ECM latterly as if not we could be stuck in this scenario for a long while yet.

Hi everyone. Here is this evening's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 22nd 2013. All models now seem to be singing from the same hymn sheet with regard to the sequence of events over the next 4-5 days. All areas begin this period with an increasingly cold, strong and showery NNW flow over the coming 24 hours as Low pressure develops out to the NE and slips slowly South down the North Sea towards NE England by tomorrow evening. This movement continues on Friday so that the Low will be off the SE English Coast by late evening. The weather would see a very showery day for all tomorrow with hail, thunder and even sleet possible over the hills in a strong and gusty wind with just brief bright intervals. On Friday Scotland and Northern Ireland will become drier and quieter while England and Wales maintain cold and cloudy weather with further rain or showers in a strong North wind. Over the weekend the weather moderates substantially as a slacker flow follows over the UK with a lot of dry and sunny weather for many over the weekend in temperatures recovering to average for a time. However by Bank Holiday Monday a new Low begins to move down from the NW over the UK renewing the risk of cloud and rain and cool weather again for many by the end of the day. GFS then shows this becoming the dominating feature over the UK for the rest of the week with rain or showers at times and some brief drier and brighter interludes for the lucky ones. By the weekend the Low has filled up with a weak ridge crossing from the West giving a spell of dry and sunny weather for all with temperatures close to average. Through the latter stages of FI there are indications of yet another Low feeding in slowly from the West with outbreaks of rain or showers returning to all areas. The GFS Ensembles show a mediocre pattern tonight once we have seen the back of the unseasonably cold uppers over the coming 48 hours. Rainfall is still fairly common over England and Wales with the best of the drier weather likely towards Scotland. The Jet Stream maintains a pattern which guarantees changeable and often unsettled weather over the UK as it is increasing it's persistence in maintaining a SE flow across the UK or just to the West and subsequently joins the Southern arm of the flow over Southern Europe. UKMO shows the UK covered by shallow Low pressure by next Tuesday with the unsettled conditions of Monday turning into a showery spell on Tuesday and probably beyond. As the model shows a less deep Low than it's partner models then the showers may be more scattered with some places seeing rather longer drier and sunnier spells over the UK. GEM shows the Low as a deeper feature slipping down over the UK next week and in no hurry to leave thereafter. Spells of rain and showers would occur over the UK with some drier and brighter spells too especially later in the week as the Low fills and moves out to the East of the UK bringing back a slack Northerly with very average temperatures at best through the period. NAVGEM is a little different in as much that it keeps next weeks Low towards the NW which lessens the longevity of it's influence somewhat to more Northern and Eastern areas with the SW gradually seeing drier and brighter weather albeit with a cool NW breeze gradually spreading NE towards other areas too by the end of the run. ECM tonight looks pretty grim to be honest bringing the Low down over the Nation following a set of troughs on Monday to be centred slap bang over the top of the UK by midweek. The remainder of the week sees this feature as a slow moving affair with a gentle migration East and North at the end of the week only serving to renew a chilly feed of air down from the North or Northwest in very showery conditions. In Summary there is very little good news tonight if it's High pressure based warm and settled weather your looking for. The Post bank Holiday period looks generally unsettled with Low pressure never straying far from the UK. With cool air in tow the best we can hope for are average temperatures in the drier periods between the showers or rain bands. ECM is the worst of a pretty bad bunch with just NAVGEM holding the long term candle tonight. I'm not quite sure what to make of the 144hr chart from UKMO but with High pressure both well to the West and North my feelings are that the slow moving Low has nowhere to go except spawn new centres around the area of NW Europe in the following days. So a disappointing set of output tonight, lets hope for better tomorrow.

Hi folks. Here is the report on the midnight output of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday May 22nd 2013. All models show a strengthening and cooling Northerly flow between High pressure to the West and Low pressure to the East blowing down over the UK for the next 72 hours. There will be bright skies and only fleeting showers at first but by tomorrow there will be far more showers, some heavy while Friday looks an altogether inclement day with exceptionally cool weather likely with strong winds and rain at times, clearing in the NW later. The pressure pattern then releases it's grip through Saturday and Sunday with a lighter NW feed, dry weather with some sunny spells and much lighter winds making it feel considerably warmer. By Bank Holiday Monday though pressure will be falling away again from the NW with rain and wind reaching Northern and Western areas extending to more Southern areas too later though it may be that the far South and East stay dry till late in the day. GFS then takes us through the next working week slipping down over Ireland and Wales to Southern England over the middle days of next week, filling as it goes. A showery pattern will be the most likely weather type, some of which will be heavy with hail and thunder though some places may miss them and stay dry especially near windward coasts. FI then shows slack Low pressure never far away from Southern Britain with scattered showers and a wind that settles from the NE while the NW sees drier and warmer conditions with good sunny spells in association with High pressure to the NW. The GFS Ensembles show the short pronounced cool blip on Friday moderating as uppers become closer to average and a bit above later. However, with good support for just marginally above or average uppers no heatwave is indicated by any member at all. Instead the most likely solution looks like one of High pressure to the NW with dry conditions shown up here while the South and East is more likely to be prone to showers though certainly not a washout. The Jet Stream continues to be unfavourable for sustained dry weather with a SE moving flow over the UK becoming weak and diffuse for a few days before a stronger surge of energy again sets up moving SE just to the West of the UK and down over Southern Europe maintaining a Low pressure belt from the NW to SE Europe. UKMO this morning shows Low pressure sliding SE over Bank Holiday Monday and Tuesday when it is centred just off NE England with a cool NW flow and a mix of sunshine and showers following a band of rain East late Monday or early Tuesday. GEM also shows Low pressure moving SE over the UK early next week with rain and showers at times followed by a strong rise of pressure from the Azores high settling things down with sunny spells and warm conditions developing universally over the UK by the end of the run. NAVGEM shows the Low pressure early next week too sending it's energy down the North Sea by the end of it's run at Day 7 with a cool NW airflow over the UK with a mix of sun and showers likely later next week following a wet spell early in the week. ECM shows a filling Low pressure slow moving over the UK next week with heavy showers and warm sunshine between for many most days next week. By Friday the Low has filled up in situ but left the UK under a still unstable and slack NW flow with the likelihood of further showers at times in places but with some good sunny spells too with temperatures close to average when taken Nationally. In Summary it is now agreed by all models that yet another Low pressure will move SE over the UK early next week with another delay in seeing any meaningful surge of High pressure from the High out to the SW anytime soon. The Central slice of this Holiday weekend looks OK for most but rain will be moving SE across the UK on Monday in temperatures at average values at best for many. There is some differences of opinion in how the atmosphere over the UK behaves once next week's low passes with GEM developing a strong surge of Summer warmth from that Azores high while GFS keeps any meaningful ridging from this too far NW to benefit the South of the UK much, while ECM keeps a slack pressure gradient over the UK with weak Low pressure aloft maintaining the risk of some shower activity in a light NW feed and an Azores High still too far away from UK shores.

Hi folks. As I'm a little late tonight and time is tight here is a somewhat shorter review of the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday May 21st 2013. All models show a strengthening Northerly flow over the UK in the coming few days with some unseasonably cold air sinking South over Eastern Britain. Accompanying this coolness will be a rash of heavy showers or more prolonged rainfall most prevalent in the East and SE on Friday. By Saturday and Sunday the winds will have moderated with a slacker NW flow with dry weather with sunny spells for many and just scattered showers here and there. GFS shows unsettled, wet and windy conditions returning quickly as Low pressure slips down over western Britain with 2-3 days of cyclonic winds with rain at times for all in rather cool conditions. Gradually pressure rises later next week with the weekend onward becoming dry and sunny as High pressure builds to form a closed centre over the UK with increasingly warm conditions. The GFS Ensembles show a sharp if notable decline in uppers over the next 48 hours before a slow and steady recovery takes hold to bring average conditions if not slightly above by the end of the output. Rainfall will decrease in amounts as the run progresses with the last to achieve this being in the South. The Jet Stream continues to show a Southward moving flow on the end of a flow moving East over the Atlantic then down over the UK albeit not very strong. This weakens and disrupts over the next few days before developing again later next week. UKMO shows a reasonable end to the Bank Holiday as pressure has built from the SW with fine and bright weather for many by then end of the weekend and bank Holiday Monday. GEM shows increasingly dry and bright conditions developing over the latter part of the bank Holiday and beyond as High pressure ridges in strongly from the West. NAVGEM tonight was not available at time of publishing ECM shows a better weather day on Sunday as a ridge crosses over the UK. By Bank Holiday Monday a new Low has sent things downhill over the NW which quickly extends to all areas by Tuesday with rain and showers for all as the Low moves ESE over the UK. Pressure builds somewhat behind it returning the weather to a dry and bright mode again before the end of the run. In Summary it's a mixed bag tonight with the NW remaining the direction we have to look for our weather again tonight. With High pressure in the Atlantic making repeated attempts to intersect the consecutive Low pressure areas there are varying degrees of success shown between the outputs tonight. GFS and ECM both show another surge of Low pressure early next week while UKMO and particularly GEM look much more favourable towards bringing fine weather over the UK, something which GFS does catch up on by Week 2 of it's run. It seems the models are currently struggling handling the events beyond this weekend and I expect more twists and turns over the coming days.

Discussing Model Output here in the UK pales into insignificance when comparing our 'will it rain or not' weather with the dynamic force of Nature and the devastating effect it has had on infrastructure and human life in Oklahoma USA overnight. However, Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday May 21st 2013. All models show a slowly strengthening Northerly flow through the coming few days as the pressure gradient steepens over the UK between High pressure over the Eastern Atlantic and Low pressure sliding South from Scandinavia later. After a few dry and bright days with temperatures steadily falling back towards average and then below showers will develop towards the East on Thursday and more especially on Friday when winds will become strong and very cool for a time towards the SE. By the weekend the offending Low will loosen it's grip as it moves away into Europe with isobars opening up over the UK with a much better day likely on Saturday for many with just well spaced showers. GFS then shows a slack NW flow over Sunday backing West on Monday as a weak ridge crosses the UK. These two days should be largely dry and bright and without the wind of previous days it would feel rather warmer. Then through the week Low pressure becomes the dominating force as it sinks across the UK with rain and showers for all in a cyclonic wind flow. Through the end of the week and start of the second weekend the Low moves slowly away to the East leaving behind Northerly winds again with scattered showers and good sunny spells, these most prolific in the West. Things then gently continue to improve though High pressure never takes complete control of the weather with the continuing risk of the odd shower in temperatures which should recover to at least more average levels for early June. The GFS Ensembles continue to show a return to average value uppers after the cool dip over the coming days. There are plenty of precipitation spikes throughout the run after the next few days though Eastern Scotland continues to look to see very little of this with dry weather there for much of the time. The Jet Stream continues to show a rather broken pattern across the UK in the coming days with the flow generally from the NW down over the UK. Later on the return of a UK trough in the flow looks likely late in the weekend and into next week. UKMO today shows very quiet conditions over the second half of the Bank Holiday weekend with plenty of sunshine in what is shown to be light winds. A few showers would be possible here and there but many places would stay dry, bright and reasonably warm in the sun but with chilly nights where skies clear. GEM today also has a slack pressure gradient over the UK later in the weekend with sunshine and the odd shower to see out the weekend. Through the following week Low pressure becomes more dominant over or close to the South of the UK increasing the risk of shower activity in very average temperatures for late May. The NW would see the best of the bright and sunnier conditions. NAVGEM today shows shallow Low pressure over the UK to start next week with a sunshine and shower mix most likely in light cyclonic winds. Good sunny spells between the showers would maintain an OK feel about conditions between any showers. ECM finally also shows a more showery look about events beyond next weekend with temperatures close to average but with only light winds and sunny spells between the showers things would feel OK. Showers are shown to become more confined to the East later as the culprit Lo exits SE of the UK leaving a slack north flow over the UK to end the run. In Summary it appears the models have taken a step back again this morning. There is still considerable doubt about the High making it's way far enough into the UK to kill off any risk of showers and to assure dry and warm summery weather. However, the Bank Holiday weekend looks far from a washout with some good sunny spells for all areas and with light winds it will feel quite warm in the sunshine. As next week transpires though the risk of showers increases with good suport for shallow low pressure to take control of the weather over most areas with more widespread showers and temperatures no better than normal in a cyclonic wind flow. There is no overall signs of any heatwave type weather yet but it's early days yet and it wouldn't take too much of a shift in synoptics around that High pressure to the West to offer something much more promising but I think we may well have to be patient.

Hi everyone. Here is the report on the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 20th 2013. All models show a slack NW flow over the UK. A weak cold front over the North has triggered a few heavy showers and storms near SE Scotland and NE England which will trundle South and decay overnight. With the air quite humid the next 24 hours or so will see a lot of low base cloud but temperatures very respectable, especially in the sunnier intervals tomorrow. Through the second half of the week the weather will freshen up and cool down with winds blowing down from the North quite strongly by Friday. There would still be a lot of dry weather in Western and Central areas but some showers in the East, heavy locally. GFS then shows the weekend as being a reasonable affair as Bank Holiday weekends go with some sunny spells. There will be a few scattered showers about through the weekend mostly in the East before a ridge of High pressure moves down from the North to bring more settled and warmer conditions with a continuation of sunny spells although warmer ones by midweek. FI tonight shows basically dry conditions with just an occasional shower from time to time. In fairly benign conditions temperatures will be generally close to average with warm conditions in the sunshine. The GFS Ensembles show a cool off in uppers over the coming days before a rise to average conditions from the weekend. The operational was a warm outlier later in the run more so in the South where showery rain events prevail with frequency. The North has the driest conditions shown. The Jet Stream shows a mixed and confused picture for the coming days before a split flow develops in a weeks time with the Northern arm riding High to the North of the UK. UKMO shows a slack Northerly flow over the UK at the weekend with plenty of dry and bright weather to be had with just scattered showers here and there. Temperatures would be close to average but with light winds and late May sunshine it will feel warm in the sun. GEM tonight shows slightly more emphasis on showers at the weekend as small disturbances run SE in the slack NW flow over the weekend with sunny spells in between when things will feel comfortable enough. By the end of the run High pressure builds over the UK with some dry and increasingly warmer conditions developing by midweek. NAVGEM also shows a more showery theme but these largely in the East over the weekend with a chill North wind. Elsewhere dry and bright conditions will prevail with sunny spells and generally light winds.Towards the final days of the run a High pressure ridge to the NW sinks don across the UK bringing dry and warm conditions to all by Day 7. ECM shows a fairly benign pattern tonight backing the North breeze at the start of the weekend into a NW then West wind later. Innitial showers in the SE would abate to generally dry and pleasant conditions before a North/South split looks likely late in the run with cloudier damper weather with rain and drizzle likely in the NW while Southern and SE parts become dry and warmer in sunny spells. In Summary tonight a decent weekend looks likely with sunny spells for most and just the chance of some showers biased towards the SE and early in the weekend. As time passes the weather looks like staying largely benign with plenty of dry and bright conditions with the occasional shower always a risk while with time warmer uppers nearer to average arrive and translate into warm sunny spells at the surface beyond the Bank Holiday with rain becoming more likely towards the NW if ECM is to be believed.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday May 20th 2013. All models show a slack, warm and humid northerly flow being replaced by a much cooler and stronger flow through the week as Low pressure slips South from Scandinavia later in the week. A large Atlantic anticyclone remains in place over the mid Atlantic. After a few mild and rather cloudy days but with a few warm sunny periods and a few heavy showers all areas will become cooler and fresher with rather more in the way of sunshine but showers too especially in the east and SE by Friday. GFS then currently shows a changeable Bank Holiday weekend with showers and sunny spells. Late in the weekend and particularly on Monday a deep Low is shown to cross the UK from the WNW with a spell of wet and windy weather for all followed by rather less unsettled weather towards midweek as pressure builds somewhat. Later in FI a changeable pattern remains with some rain for some at times as Low pressure becomes a cut off feature near Ireland later. However, there would be plenty of dry and rather warmer conditions developing with time as High pressure builds to the NE. The GFS Ensembles continue to stubbornly refuse to show anything remarkably warm over the next few weeks. Having said that there will be some good spells of useable weather to be had with average temperatures perhaps more so towards the North while the South sees quite a period of wetter weather in the middle portion of the run. The Jet Stream continues to show a disorganized pattern with areas of wind at high levels all over the place for a time before a split flow develops again late next weekend and into the following week with the Northern arm then crossing the Atlantic, turning South down over the UK and joining the Southern arm over Southern Europe. UKMO today shows a fairly undramatic weekend of weather to come with plenty of dry and bright weather with sunny spells mixed in with scattered showers. temperatures will be a little suppressed but it will feel warm in the sunshine making for a fairly useable weekend for most. GEM today shows a similar type of weather over the weekend with many places probably ending dry. Next week shows a deterioration in conditions as winds back West and a North/South split develops in the weather. Northern areas will see rain at times and rather breezy weather while the South will see rather less in the way of rain with longer dry spells with temperatures recovering to normal values everywhere. NAVGEM this morning shows a disappointing start to the weekend with rain and cool weather commonplace, especially in the South as Low pressure spins it's way across and away from the South. Later in the weekend the weather quietens down and becomes much drier with sunny spells and light winds. ECM shows the NW seeing the best conditions at the weekend with dry and sunny weather likely while the SE in particular is at risk of showers and cool weather until Sunday. Towards the end of the run fortunes switch as a ridge descends down over the UK with a dry and sunnier spell for Southern areas while the North sees a change to more unsettled conditions spilling down from the NW. In Summary this morning the Bank Holiday looks like a relatively benign one with many places seeing reasonable conditions in sunny spells if not overly warm weather. There will be some rain about in the form of showers towards the SE at first but the latter end of the holiday looks dry for many with sunny spells and just a cool Northerly wind. As is usual further out looks more confusing with various options shown but while not looking like a heatwave is likely anytime soon it looks reasonable for many with just occasional rainfall at times perhaps becoming most likely towards the North with time.

Good evening and welcome to my evening report on the 12 noon output from the big weather models this Sunday May 19th 2013. All models are fairly agreed on the pattern through the working week ahead as the first few days will see variable and often large amounts of cloud across the UK with a few weak troughs embedded moving slowly SW then South over the coming few days. With warm uppers aloft, slack winds at the surface, convergence zones will form during the warmth of the day tomorrow and with fairly high humidity some showers or thunderstorms may develop tomorrow, more likely in the North but not exclusively so. Through Tuesday a cloudy and drizzly spell looks possible as a weak cold front brings much cooler and fresher South across all areas by Wednesday. Thursday and Friday then see a straight Northerly feed likely with showers for many, heaviest and most frequent in the East and SE while Northern and Western parts see fewer showers and good sunny spells. Cold nights will develop later in the week with ground frost forming in places around dawn. GFS then shows the Bank Holiday weekend as a changeable affair with some rain or showers at times coming across all areas from the West or NW with fairly average temperatures overall in winds blowing from between West and North for the most part. Through the half term week slow improvements are shown as we move through the week with the cool and showery weather gradually being replaced by warmer and more settled conditions as High pressure builds NE across the UK. The last to see the improvements will be in the SE but even here things look very pleasant by the second weekend with long sunny spells and eventually very warm conditions away from the onshore breezes on the East Coast. The GFS Ensembles show a steady fall in uppers as we go through this week to below average, especially in the North. Further out and they do recover to near the average with rainfall amounts reducing somewhat later in the run following a rise in rainfall events while the cooler weather takes hold. The Jet Stream shows a weak Northern arm while the Southern arm remains flowing unabated over North Africa and the Med. In a week's time a split flow develops once more with the Northern arm crossing the Atlantic towards the UK and turning South to the Southern flow via Biscay. UKMO tonight shows a slack and showery airflow over the UK next weekend. Winds would be light but with fairly chilly uppers and strong sunshine it won't take much for heavy showers to develop inland over the daytime. Also with clear skies overnight frost will be a real risk for many. GEM tonight shows a chilly start to the weekend with showers in the East. Winds back NW and then West in the half term week and with deep Low pressure close to Northern Scotland changeable weather would be maintained with wind and rain featuring at times for all. There would be some drier and brighter spells more likely in the East than anywhere else and it could become somewhat less cool. NAVGEM shows a cold Northerly flow at the start of the Holiday Weekend with showers and cold winds mixed with some bright and sunny spells in between more especially in the Northwest and West. Late in the weekend the winds fall light and showers become more scattered. With cool uppers still above our heads we can expect no better than average temperatures by day and well below at night with a frost risk remaining. ECM finally shows a very unstable and cool Northerly flow lasting many days from Thursday. There would be plenty of heavy and thundery showers by day and some longer spells of rain too in the SE as Low pressure lies just to the East of the UK with High pressure held well to the West. In Summary tonight the weather pattern remains locked in this seemingly everlasting Northerly type weather which instead of waning as we move towards Summer seems to be strengthening as we move towards and through the Bank Holiday weekend. GFS is a peach tonight with it's long stretch of High pressure over the UK later in it's operational with ever warming conditions while the counterbalance is held by ECM yet again with a long spell of very chilly Northerly winds with plenty of unsettled weather and just brief brighter spells. The other show something of a halfway house between the two but none of them show what we all want to see at the moment so we will have to make do with the dry and bright weather between the showers and hope that high summer weather is waiting for...summer.

Good morning folks. Here is the AM report from the midnight outputs of the big weather models supercomputers for Sunday May 19th 2013. All models show Low pressure to the South and east of the UK with a slack Northerly flow over the coming 24 hours or so. Embedded within this flow will be several weak fronts bringing cloud, rain and drizzle South across the UK most prolific in the East tomorrow. Tuesday sees a similar arrangement with the warmer conditions enjoyed over the last few days becoming shoved away South of Britain by midweek. From midweek a straight Northerly feed, strengthening somewhat in the East will deliver brighter skies with sunny spells and scattered showers to the East and a return to flocal night frosts in the North by the bank Holiday weekend. GFS then intensifies the unsettled conditions at the end of the week to deliver a cool and unsettled weekend with rain in places though no doubt some sunny spells at times too. Throughout FI today the standoff between High pressure wanting to extend down from the North remains with some dry and bright weather here but as we move progressively SE over the UK and to all areas at times the risk of continuing unstable air persists along with the attendant risk of showers. Temperatures would probably recover again to more normal values later after a rather cool spell next weekend. The GFS Ensembles follow the trend of the operational although the operational was a warmer member at times. So after a warm few days much cooler condtions develop over the UK followed by a trend to average uppers and surface temperatures in Week 2. Showery weather looks again the nature of the weather type with the precipitation amounts having trended higher over recent runs. The Jet Stream shows the flow becoming disorganized and diffuse for the next three or four days with the general trend for it to eventually settle on a West to East orientation across Southern England and Northern France in a week or so. UKMO today shows a chilly Northerly feed to start the Bank Holiday Weekend blowing around Low pressure over Germany with scatttered showers likely in the East and it would feel particularly chilly near Eastern Coasts. The West and NW would see the brightest and sunniest conditions but even here not overly warm especially at night. GEM today shows a similar theme with a chilly Northerly flow to start the weekend. This then backs NW to perhaps give a window of decent weather to end the Holiday Weekend ahead of further Low pressure moving in from the NW as we move through the following week with rain at times returning for all. NAVGEM shows split fortunes over the Bank Holiday Weekend as Friday and Saturday sees cool and unsettled weather with showers, especially in the SE give way to dry and fine weather by Sunday and Monday as the Low moves away and a slack ridge topples down over the UK with some warm sunshine in average temperatures. Once more this model too shows chilly nights where skies clear with the risk of ground frost. ECM finally shows Northerly winds in control over the holiday weekend with the SE seeing showers in the early part of the weekend reinforced by new Low pressure by Holiday Monday expanding the shower risk to most areas though still more prolific in Southern and Eastern areas with the NW having the best chance of staying dry and bright. Into the new working week and low pressure to the South keeps the UK in a chilly feed of quite fresh by then NE winds and further showers, especially towards the South. In Summary today the weather looks like being rather cool but bright over the holiday weekend. It depends on your own classification of what is good weather and the bright conditions may be enough to satisfy many people's tastes over the holiday weekend but if it's high temperatures and wall to wall sunshine you want you may well be disappointed. The blanket surmisal of conditions is that there will be a mix of sunshine and showers with SE Britain most at risk of these. The NW will probably see the driest conditions with the highest daytime temperatures though night's wherever you live could well be jolly chilly for the time of year with a frost risk. Looking further ahead the locked pattern seems to continue with little sign of the UK being lifted out of the rather cool conditions with scattered showers and temperatures close to average at best. However, when compared to last year this weather likely to be experienced over the UK in the next two weeks far surpasses what we were having to endure a year ago. There is no sign of any disruptive weather anywhere apart from the frost risk that Gardeners, Farmers and Growers are anxiously awaiting me to remove from my reports in my area at the moment.

Hi folks. Here is tonight's viewpoint from me on the 12 noon outputs of the big models for Saturday May 18th 2013. All models show shallow Low pressure and associated troughs spinning around the UK with one such Low and trough clearing West then SW out of Ireland while a new one pushes up towards the SE tomorrow. Beyond that and into next week a weak front will push south over the UK with some light rain and drizzle for some, mostly towards the East with brighter skies further West. By midweek brighter and possibly sunnier conditions look likely to develop as pressure rises slowly from the West but with a chill North wind bringing temperatures down several degrees on current levels especially towards the NE with the likelihood of some ground frost at night later in the week. GFS tonight shows the Bank Holiday Weekend as an acceptable period weatherwise with Northerly winds keeping temperatures in check at near average levels by day but cold at night with further ground frosts possible. By Monday though a weakening trough is shown crossing from the West with a spell of cloud and patchy rain moving West to East over the UK. Later in FI the weather is shown to become more disturbed for a time with some rain for all in Westerly winds with the North seeing the most rainfall while High pressure close to the South at the end of the run keeps things rather drier and warmer again later. The GFS Ensembles tonight show an ebb and flow pattern with the rise in uppers currently being steadily displaced as cooler air spreads down from the North. As is usual as the run progresses the members show a more spaghetti type pattern with the general concensus of a fairly average set of temperatures for late May. With regard to rainfall nowhere looks like being drenched in the next few weeks with more scattered showery rain likely with fairly long dry spells in between. The Jet Stream shows a fairly weak pattern over the coming week or so. The current main part of the flow is well South of the UK with a Northern arm crossing the Atlantic later next week turning South over the UK before breaking up or disrupting again around the UK. UKMO tonight shows Northerly winds blowing down over the UK towards the end of the coming week. The weather would be set fair though some showers could occur in the extreme East later as low pressure sinks South from Scandinavia. Through the week temperatures would fall back to average or somewhat below with some chilly nights with a ground frost risk. GEM shows an increasingly chilly week coming up and with more unsettled conditions developing with heavy showers and sunny intervals by the Bank Holiday Weekend then lasting several days with cold clear nights likely to give rise to ground frost inland. Late in the run the winds back West with less chilly conditions along with more Atlantic based weather of wind and rain at times moving in by the 28th. NAVGEM tonight maintains it's earlier theme of bringing High pressure in towards more NW areas late in the week giving rise to a dry and fine spell for all with sunny spells but Eastern Coasts would feel chilly in an onshore wind. Temperatures would be close to average towards the West and South but rather cool towards the NE. Late in the run the High recedes back SW somewhat with winds falling light but little overall change to conditions at the surface. There would be chilly nights throughout though. ECM is not as good tonight with high pressure way too far West to have any meaningful influence other than to produce cool Northerly winds backing NW for a time. At the surface this will translate into cool days with bright or sunny spells and showers, the showers most heavy and prolific towards the East lasting throughout the Bank Holiday weekend especially towards the SE. The end of the run shows a weak ridge collapsing over the UK from the NW ahead of further Low pressure beyond the term of the run. In Summary it's more of the same from the models with the trajectory of High pressure out to the West continuing to be the cause of conflict between the models. The ranges in weather from the two extremes of synoptics tonight is relatively small though with fine and cool weather from one extreme (NAVGEM) and heavy showers and cool weather from the other (ECM). There would be sunshine to be enjoyed whichever output is right tonight but heatwave type weather remains very much on hold for the time being.

Good morning. Here is my take on the midnight runs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday May 18th 2013. All models show a complex Low pressure system around the UK with an area of rain moving West over Central areas. This then clears away West then South away from the UK. A further disturbance moves NW close to Southeast Britain late tomorrow but this looks less influential for most parts away from the SE tomorrow giving a dry, bright and warm period. Early next week shows a Northerly flow developing pulling colder conditions South across the UK following a cold front South over Monday and Tuesday leading into the midweek period being governed by a Northerly, cool flow with sunny spells and a few showers, these chiefly in the East and NE while Western regions stay largely dry. all areas would then see sunshine by day but chilly nights with ground frost returning once more. GFS then takes us into the Bank Holiday weekend with a slowly developing more changeable pattern with some rain at times, especially in the NW although all areas would see rain on Sunday as a weakening cold front moves East across the UK. This then sets the scene for the rest of FI with generally Westerly winds carrying occasional troughs East across the UK with some rain at times. With the Low pressure responsible lying well to the NW of Britain the North and West would see the most frequent rainfall while the South and East see quite long, dry spells in between when it could feel quite warm in the brightness. The GFS Ensembles again show the operational as a rather warm member of the pack with most opting for a near average couple of weeks. rainfall amounts are far from excessive and in fact many areas will see a lot of dry weather over the coming few weeks. The Jet Stream shows the flow disrupting around our part of Europe over the coming days. The disorganized flow remains in situ for some while before the flow rejuvenates across the Atlantic and down over the UK to join the Southern arm down over the South of Spain and the Meditteranean Sea in a week's time. UKMO today has taken a step back somewhat from last night's output and keeps the Low pressure closer to the UK over Scandinavia come Friday with a cold and showery Northerly flow blowing down over the UK with showers in places and the risk of overnight frost in temperatures no better than normal and a little below for many. GEM has High pressure knocking on the door of Western Britain at the same time point and throws a ridge across the UK which sinks towards the South over the Holiday Weekend setting up a NW/SE split in the weather with milder Atlantic winds developing in the NW with rain at times with the best of the dry and brighter and warmer weather reserved for the South and East by the time folks return to work on Tuesday. NAVGEM brings High pressure very slowly into the UK by the weekend taking all week to do so and meaning winds will be maintained from a chilly Northerly point. The Holiday weekend would be dry and fine for all but not overly warm with chilly nights promoting a continuation of unrequired late ground frosts almost anywhere. ECM this morning also shows a quiet Bank Holiday weekend with slack winds and temperatures close to average as High pressure although close to the West fails to make the journey across the UK to bring warmer weather. Therefore it would be a case of sunny spells in all areas but later in the weekend the chance of showers increases especially in the SE. Night's would continue cold with the risk of grass frost as winds although light are maintained from a Northerly aspect. In Summary today there is still considerable reluctance shown to bring in High pressure sufficiently far enough East into the UK to cut off the chilly Northerly feed which has plagued our weather of late. The Bank Holiday Weekend does look decent enough for most areas though without particularly high temperatures anywhere. With High pressure to the West there will be a lot of dry and bright weather with sunny spells by day but Eastern Coasts and later the SE could see some showers should Low pressure over NW Europe creep close enough to our shores. The most concerning aspect of the weather over the period is the night temperatures which will continue low with the risk of frost, something that gardeners and growers do not want to see at this late stage of Spring. We really do need that High out West to cross the UK to the East to rid us of the cold source airflow and bring us into what would otherwise be a real taste of early Summer weather.

Hi everyone. Here is the report from the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday May 17th 2013. All models show Low pressure moving in from the East tonight carrying rain West across the Central swathe of the UK while areas in the South sees a dry and partly clear night once remaining showers leave Cornwall. the far North too will be dry, clearer and chilly in light winds freshening from the East here. Tomorrow sees the Low move West then South over Ireland and away to the South by early next week. The rain will continue through most of tomorrow before dying out leaving much of the UK dry for a time. Later on Sunday another disturbance moves slowly NW into SE Britain and far enough NW to affect other Southern areas later in the day. On Monday and Tuesday all models show rising pressure from the West with the trend to drier and brighter conditions following a band of rain and drizzle trundling slowly South on Monday and Tuesday. GFS then shows the ridge of High pressure over Scotland towards midweek sink further South to Southern Britain later though with the air flow from the North weak disturbances could make things rather cloudy at times. The Bank Holiday Weekend shows quite slack pressure over the UK with light winds and relatively warm conditions with sunny spells and just the chance of the odd shower. In FI tonight a NW/SE split seems likely with the NW seeing cloud and rain along with a fresh SW breeze while Southern and easternmost parts of England and Wales ill enjoy a lot of fine and bright weather with some warm sunshine at times. The GFS Ensembles show the operational was on the top of the pile for much of the run so it's warmth should be downgraded when taken the ensemble mean as a whole. The mean of the pack indicates more average uppers with the amounts of rain expected relatively small once we move beyond this weekend. The Jet Stream shows the flow weakening and breaking up around the UK in a day or two's time before an eventual return to a split flow develops before the end of next week. UKMO tonight shows a period of fair weather for many later next week. with broken cloud and sunny spells. With winds in the North it will never be very warm with average conditions at best and probably rather below, especially in the NE where the odd shower or two is likely. GEM tonight shows winds staying in the NW quarter next week with variable cloud and sunshine at times before the Bank Holiday weekend sees Low pressure slipping down over the North Sea with some cool weather with showers likely. By the end of the run which coincides with the end of the Bank Holiday winds will of backed Westerly with rather more unsettled conditions pushing in from the Atlantic. NAVGEM too shows a NW flow next week with High pressure relatively close to the west of the UK. This means there will be a lot of dry weather across the UK with average temperatures and only the odd shower in the East to spoil a relatively dry pattern. ECM tonight has a steadily improving picture next week as High pressure inches slowly in from the West by the Bank Holiday Weekend. The weather would be dry and bright for the majority of next week with the cool Northerly flow weakening with time. The High settles down over the UK nicely in time for the Bank Holiday Weekend with fine, warm and sunny weather developing over all areas at that time with just the far SE at risk of a shower on Bank Holiday Monday. In Summary there is cause for optimism from tonight's output as there is progressive improvements shown by nearly all of the output as the previous UK trough is now programmed east of the British Isles. ECM develops a nice spell over next weekend with temperatures comfortably above normal and the final chart from UKMO is not a million miles from showing a similar evolution should it have shown output for a few more days. In among all this good news though one should not forget the GFS Ensembles which are not overly inspiring temperature wise. The one constant between the models is that beyond this weekend's unsettled spell there will not be much rain over the UK for some time to come if tonight's outputs verify.

Hi everyone. Here is the morning look at the outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for midnight on Friday May 17th 2013. All models are more agreed now on the path of the Low pressure moving West over the UK in the continuing changeable pattern over the UK. A swathe of Central Britain will see persistent and heavy rain move West then SW over Northern England and the North Midlands today and then across Ireland. the rain will last 24 hours or so before dying out. To the South and north of the band the weather will be drier, brighter and in the NW quite warm while the South sees occasional showers. By early next week most models show Low pressure relaxing away to the South with slow improvements in the shape of a ridge of High pressure slipping slowly South over the UK. GFS shows the ridge moving South towards midweek with dry and bright conditions already in the NW by then moving further South to clear away the risk of showers in the South. Later in the week the risge is squeezed somewhat from the north by weak troughs crossing ESE towards the NE where a little rain and more cloud could return towards the end of the week. The Holiday weekend itself looks set fair over the first half before Low pressure develops over the UK by Sunday and Monday delivering rain or showers by then. In FI this morning this change to cooler and more showery conditions nationwide persists out to the end of the run with some dry and bright interludes too with near average temperatures at best. The GFS Ensembles show a steady warm up in uppers over the coming days, quite pronounced in the North. The rise is short-lived though and by the time we reach next week the uppers fall off to normal levels or even below as winds settle back towards the North dragging cool and bright weather down with the risk of showers at times. There is still no long term evidence of any sustained warm and settled conditions nationwide over the coming two weeks though I'm sure in sunny spells in shelter from the North it would feel OK. The Jet Stream shows the troughed pattern over the Uk currently break down as the flow weakens and disrupts. Eventually the Southern arm remains in situ down over Southern Spain and North Africa while a Northern arm crosses the Atlantic then turns South over the UK over the Bank Holiday weekend. UKMO this morning shows a strengthening and cool Northerly flow developing next week with showers in the flow, becoming wintry on Northern hills with frosts returning overnight. All of this due to a Scandinavian Low pressure and a mid Atlantic High ridging North towards Eastern Greenland. GEM today shows the improvements shown by GFS early in the week but it too develops a chilly Northerly towards the Bank Holiday weekend with showers and cool conditions in a blustery cool wind with below average temperatures for a time and frost at night in the North. The coolness then becomes modified as winds back NW though changeable conditions woul be likely to persist. NAVGEM today shows winds from the North for much of next week so it will never be desperately warm. With Low pressure sinking South down the North Sea or NW Europe a few showers are likely in the east with West being best for enjoying the dry and bright weather on offer from this model in conditions which would remain rather cool in the north wind, especially overnight. ECM this morning shows a chilly North wind through the middle of next week with a few showers in the North and East. the South and west would see the brightest and warmest conditions, probably best to the SW. Through the end of the week and start to the Bank Holiday weekend the weather would be largely dry, bright and a little warmer as a ridge moves gently across the Uk from the West. By Holiday Sunday and Monday the weather is shown to turn a little more unsettled with Low pressure to the NW developing yet another UK trough with the increasing risk of showers. In Summary this morning there are still signs of an improving week next week. Having said that I am not suggesting high Summer with temperatures widely in the 20's C but a average or chilly spell with plenty of dry and bright weather likely for many next week with just scattered showers at times. UKMO is a concern though and it is not without support in pulling really chilly conditions South midweek with showers of snow on Northern hills and more concerning damaging frosts overnight in the North. As the Bank Holiday Weekend gradually comes into range it currently looks like a fair start to the weekend with dry and bright if not overly warm conditions before things look like sliding into more unsettled and still cool conditions as we move into the second half of the weekend. For those looking for a toasty spell of prolonged warm and sunny conditions Nationwide there is little evidence of this in any of the outputs I have seen this morning including the ensembles. On the plus side there is no evidence of disruptive rainfall events or other nasty conditions either. So in a nutshell if it's quiet, sometimes pleasant and benign conditions with a little rain at times type conditions your after then this morning's output could be for you.

Hi folks. Here is the report of the 12 noon output from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday May 16th 2013. All models show a complex pressure pattern over the UK with differentials shown between the models from quite an early point. Low pressure is the governing factor with various centres continuing to revolve around and over the UK for the upcoming days. GFS shows Low pressure moving West into the North of the UK then away to the South early next week. Rain is shown to move West across the North particularly on Saturday while the South, though cloudy looks like it could stay largely dry. By early next week Low pressure is generally South of the UK with showers becoming increasingly restricted to these areas as a ridge from the Atlantic High moves over Scotland. This sinks South over the week with all areas becoming dry with sunny spells and warmer temperatures by day. The Bank Holiday weekend shows Southern areas being very pleasant with plenty of dry and bright weather while the North becomes cloudier with some rain for a time late in the weekend. In FI the weather remains reasonable for a time before the return to a UK trough setup similar to currently looks probable. The GFS Ensembles show a sharp rise in uppers over the North in the coming days in association with the Low moving West into the North on Saturday. The rise is less marked in the South but at least a recovery to more normal uppers look likely here too. Longer term the high uppers in the North reduce to average levels. The rain is marked in the South on Sunday/Monday with a more showery scenario looking likely later. In the South the operational is on the warm side of the pack in the second half of the run. The Jet Stream shows the flow sinking South to the West of the UK and North to the East with the UK in the middle. The trough in the flow subsides after a few days and the flow becomes split with the Northern arm extending NE to the North of the UK and over Northern Scandinavia while the Southern arm remains over North Africa and the Med. UKMO tonight shows slowly rising pressure next week following the changeable patterns of the weekend. Showers would generally become more scattered with time with plenty of dry and bright weather possible. With winds settling between NW and NE it will never be overly warm especially overnight. GEM tonight shows the UK based trough persisting with showers or rain at times scattered about over the UK mixed with some dry and bright spells. Later next week renewed Low pressure feeds down from the NW renewing the threat of more persistent rain and showers over the UK in time for the Bank Holiday weekend. NAVGEM shows a temporary improvement next week as something of a ridge from the Atlantic High slides down over the UK early in the week. The showers or rain at the weekend would be replaced by several dry and bright days with just a few showers here and there. Later in the week pressure falls again with showers or rain becoming more noticeable again over the UK particularly in the North and East. ECM tonight also shows some changes with the unsettled weekend likely to give way to a West/East split next week as a Low slips SE to the East of the UK with it's attendant cool and showery weather restricted to more Eastern areas while the West shows fine and bright conditions albeit with Northerly winds it would still feel cool for many with the risk of grass frost in the North overnight. Towards the Bank Holiday all areas look dry and bright for the first few days as a ridge crosses East over Britain. Following on behind for the second half of the weekend is Low pressure moving down from the NW to bring all areas back into showery and rather cool conditions. In Summary there are some slender improvements in some of the output tonight with next week seeing a fair share of dry and bright weather once this weekends unsettled weather moves away South early next week. With the Atlantic High trying desperately hard to throw it's influence towards the UK it succeeds to some degree for a time. However, while it stays West of the UK a temporary ridge is the best we can hope for which is borne out tonight as Low pressure from GEM and ECM makes certain that any change to a prolonged dry and warm UK wide spell is still a way off renewing the UK trough at some point close to the Bank Holiday weekend. It should begin to feel somewhat warmer by day Nationwide though in any sunny spells.

Hi everyone. From a very bright but chilly West Country Spring morning here is the report on the midnight outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for this morning Thursday May 16th 2013. All models show a complex Low pressure pattern over and around the UK for the next 4-5 days or longer. Various centres of Low pressure will deliver spells of rain especially in the North over the weekend with the risk transferring towards the South and SE early next week. In among the rainier spells will be some pleasantly dry and bright weather with some warm sunshine but always the risk of catching one or two of the scattered heavy showers which will accompany the brighter spells. Under any clear skies at night grass frost remains possible, especially at first over this period though generally conditions will improve in regard to temperatures as we move into next week. GFS then shows the middle and end to next week with Low pressure close to the South and SE with heavy showers always a risk here in a cool NE breeze. Further North and West will see conditions rather better with sunshine more prevalent and largely dry and bright weather by day but still with chilly nights under clear skies. Through FI the ridge of High pressure delivering this rather better weather slips SE across other areas with most areas becoming dry with good sunny spells and pleasantly warm conditions to end the run though the far North could see a little rain from weak fronts crossing East on the Northern flank of the ridge for a time towards the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show gently rising uppers across the South over the next 4-5 days before they settle close to average under rather showery conditions lessening later. In the North the rise in uppers is more stark and pronounced as is the subsequent fall back to average levels later. Up here precipitation values are quite small particularly beyond this coming weekend. The Jet Stream currently blowing South to the West of the UK and returning North to the East breaks down in a few days time as the flow reverts to a split flow with one weak Northern arm carrying the flow NE to the North of the UK while the Southern arm remains stubbornly over North Africa, Southern Spain and the Med later next week. UKMO today shows a lull in the unsettled proceedings on it's 144hr chart this morning with High pressure tantalisingly close to the West, sufficiently close to bring something of a ridge into the UK with dry and bright conditions likely under average temperatures overall. Low pressure to the North looks poised to spread more unsettled conditions back before the end of the week though. GEM today is very unremitting in maintaining a Low pressure based pattern as further Low pressure trundles down into the UK from the NW keeping showery and sometimes wet conditions going for all in temperatures none too special for late May. NAVGEM shows a gentle rise of pressure next week with the showery weather gradually weakening from the SW as pressure builds. However, it is a painfully slow process and by the end of the run weak fronts are still shown meandering in from the West or NW across Northern areas at least. ECM maintains it's stubbornly familiar theme of late on showing Low pressure over or close to the UK in a continuing procession of Low pressure from the NW. However, there will be some drier and brighter interludes especially towards the SE before the next system arrives later next week. In Summary this week it's a case of 'Deja Vu' as the general pattern refuses to show any worthwhile improvements towards a UK wide fine and settled period. Instead it looks like we will have to continue to enjoy what dry and fine conditions are on offer locally between the showers and there are some on here which will say this is a good spell of weather but speaking as a whole for the UK it's far from it with the risk of rain or showers never far away from any one place and temperatures that never look like being remarkably high over the coming two weeks, especially overnight.