Gibby

No that's right and just highlights the uncertainties still. However, I wouldn't read to much into one operational run. The Met will be running their models repeatedly and don't forget we don't get to see their ensembles which would help give a better picture. Certainly Jay Wynne on the 6:30 bulletin still had the storm tracking across Wales and out over the Humber.

Reposted as wrong link posted earlier. Sorry folks. For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm

For those interested I have compiled a blog on my website which will be updated regularly over the weekend as new data and changes develop. It can be found at:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Martin-Gibbs-Blog(2800563).htm

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 25TH 2013 Friday will start dull and wet with spells of rain but clearer weather will spread NE through the morning with winds veering SW with some sunshine but scattered heavy showers too later. Temperatures will remain well above average with values of near 16-17C in the afternoon. Tonight will be rather cloudy with just a few clearer intervals and scattered showers, a few of which could still be heavy and thundery but not everyone will see them. It will be a breezy and mild night with temperatures not below 12C by dawn. Through Saturday fresh West or SW brings will bring a lot of dry and bright weather but there could be some showery rain in places at first and late in the day a spell of heavier and squally rain will cross East through the area followed by clear intervals and squally showers overnight. Sunday will be bright and very breezy with frequent squally and heavy showers with strong Westerly winds and just brief and fleeting bright or sunny intervals. It will feel chilly in the wind. Monday could potentially become very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Southern England early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. The confidence on the exact procedure of events and it's impact on the area are unsure at the moment and further updates will be added over the coming days. Tuesday will see the storms subside but it will remain very windy with showers and sunny spells and rather cold weather. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 25TH 2013

Still a lot of uncertainty about the storm but I wouldn't bet against it being as the UKMO charts suggest and I for one think the Met are right to give early warnings while at the same time highlighting the uncertainty. I personally think that the UK has one of the most challenging weather patterns in the world and the Met do a brilliant job of handling some very difficult synoptic patterns at times given that there is 4,000mls of ocean to our West where observations are sparse and this weekend is a case in point.

I think it is a little early to discount problems from this storm this soon. The development is not clear cut at the moment and we need a few model runs yet to tie this feature's detail down.

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013 Thursday will be bright but cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, light at first but becoming heavier after dark. It will become mild again through the day with temperatures close to 16C in any sunshine after lunch. Tonight will see the rain advance NE across all parts with some heavy bursts and a strong SE wind. It will be mild tonight with temperatures not below 12C by dawn. Friday will start dull and wet with spells of rain but clearer weather will spread NE through the morning with winds veering SW with some sunshine but scattered heavy showers too later. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. Through Saturday strong West or SW brings will bring a spell of rain across the area after a dry start to the day. Sunday will be very unsettled and windy with showers across the region, heavy with hail and thunder possible in cooler conditions than of late. Monday could potentially become very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Southern England early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. The confidence on the exact procedure of events and it's impact on the area are unsure at the moment and further updates will be added over the coming days. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 20:00HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2013 Tonight will be mostly dry with some clear spells and it will be a cooler night than of late with temperatures near 7C by morning allowing a few shallow mist or fog patches in low lying areas. Winds will continue to fall light becoming variable or SE in direction by dawn. On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, light at first but becoming heavier after dark. It will become mild again through the day. Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area, some of which will be heavy and thundery in places in a fresh SW breeze. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. Through the weekend strong West or SW brings will bring spells of rain and showers across the region on both days, heavy with hail and thunder possible in cooler conditions than of late. Monday could potentially become very stormy as a vigorous Low tracks across Southern England early in the day with the potential for storm force winds and very heavy rain for a time followed by squally showers. The confidence on the exact procedure of events and it's impact on the area are unsure at the moment and further updates will be added over the coming days. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 24TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2013 Wednesday will be breezy and showery at first. Through the day showers will die down and it will probably become dry everywhere by late afternoon with some sunny spells in a cooler Westerly wind maximum Temperatures will be near to 14C so somewhat fresher than of late. Tonight will be mostly dry with some clear spells and it will be a cooler night than of late with temperatures near 7C by morning. Winds will continue to fall light becoming variable or SE in direction by dawn. On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, some heavy. It will remain relatively mild. Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area in lighter winds than of late. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. On Saturday an unsettled start with further rain and showers will be replaced by a drier and brighter afternoon with some sunshine and rather cooler and less windy weather than of late. Sunday will be a very windy day with further spells of rain or showers and very few if any bright weather. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON MONDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2013 Tonight will be a night of broken cloud and occasional heavy showers perhaps with thunder. Some torrential downpours are likely with locally very strong gusts of wind in places. It will be quite mild still with temperatures no lower than 10C in a blustery SW wind. Wednesday will be very windy and showery at first. Through the day showers will die down and it will probably become dry everywhere by late afternoon with some sunny spells in a cooler Westerly wind. On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and some rain spreading NE later in the day, some heavy. It will remain mild. Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area in lighter winds than of late. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. On Saturday an unsettled start with further rain and showers will be replaced by a drier and brighter afternoon with some sunshine and rather cooler and less windy weather than of late. Sunday will be a very windy day with further spells of rain or showers and very few if any bright weather. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 23RD 2013

Yes looks like I have got the trajectory of these storms slightly wrong as it now looks like Wiltshire and Gloucestershire are most at risk for the time being. Very confusing with surface winds due South and upper winds SSW.

I'm currently looking at some very potent thunderstorms with potential enough for flash floods, currently lying between Weymouth and Bournemouth moving due North and another band lying North to South through Lyme Bay destined for Bridport, Weymouth, Yeovil, Wincanton, Shaftesbury and points further North through East Somerset and West Wiltshire in the coming hours. Could be interesting.

I can remember many a sleepless night weather watching when I was a schoolboy. My parents used to think I was crazy.

Could be a very turbulent night for Southern England as conditions are primed for widespread deep convection and squally winds and to enhance things more a deep trough will pass in the early hours. Many places will probably see at least distant lightning and probably more for a few. It is also conceivable that an isolated waterspout or small tornado could affect Southern Coastal Counties East of Dorset through the night giving the risk of localised damage.

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON MONDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2013 Tuesday will see a wet start with heavy rain tracking slowly NE across the County followed by brighter weather later on in the day but with some heavy and possibly thundery showers. It will be another windy but mild day for all of us with temperatures close to 16C in the afternoon. Tonight will be a night of broken cloud and occasional heavy showers perhaps with thunder. It will be quite mild still with temperatures no lower than 10C in a blustery SW wind. Wednesday will be very windy and showery with some heavy showers and some longer spells of heavy rain possible too at times. A few brighter intervals are possible in between, especially later in the day. On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and rain spreading NE later in the day, some heavy. It will remain mild. Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area in lighter winds than of late. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. On Saturday an unsettled start with further rain and showers will be replaced by a drier and brighter afternoon with some sunshine and rather cooler and less windy weather than of late. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON MONDAY OCTOBER 21ST 2013 Tonight will see a lot of cloud still across the areas with outbreaks of rain and drizzle at times for all. After midnight the West of the County will become very wet again with some heavy rain towards morning elsewhere too. It will be a very mild and breezy night with temperatures no lower than 13C which a strong Southerly breeze. On Tuesday it ill be a very wet morning with heavy rain tracking slowly NE across the County followed by brighter weather later on in the day but with some heavy and possibly thundery showers. It will be another windy but mild day for all of us with temperatures close to 16C in the afternoon. Wednesday will be very windy and showery with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain possible too at times. A few brighter intervals are possible in between, especially later in the day. On Thursday after a bright morning cloud will thicken through the afternoon with SE winds increasing and rain spreading NE later in the day, some heavy. It will remain mild. Friday will be another very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain across the area in lighter winds than of late. Temperatures may be a little lower than of late but it will still be mild for the time of year. On Saturday an unsettled start with further rain and showers will be replaced by a drier and brighter afternoon with some sunshine and rather cooler and less windy weather than of late. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 22ND 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 09:00HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 20TH 2013 Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy and squally with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October with temperatures close to 16C in the afternoon. It will be a rather breezy day across the area with a stiff SW breeze. Tonight will see most of the showers die out as well as the wind with a largely dry night with broken cloud and clear spells. Towards morning cloud will of thickened from the South and with an increasing SE wind by then heavy rain will of arrived for most by dawn. Minimum Temperatures tonight will still be a mild 10C at lowest. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. Some of the rain will be heavy and prolonged, especially in the morning with the East of the county probably becoming a little brighter and drier in the afternoon. A very windy day is expected everywhere. On Tuesday and Wednesday it will be very windy and showery with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain possible too at times. A few brighter intervals are possible in between especially on Wednesday. On Thursday after a bright start cloud will thicken through the morning with SE winds increasing and rain spreading NE through the day, some heavy. It will remain mild. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 20TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 19:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013 Tonight will start mostly dry with clear spells but after midnight much of the area will see occasional showers and a fresh to strong Southerly breeze. Some of the showers could contain some thunder and lightning here and there as they pass. It will be another unseasonably mild night with temperatures close to 12C. Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy and squally with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October with temperatures close to 16C in the afternoon. It will be a rather breezy day across the area with a stiff SW breeze. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between. On Thursday after a bright start cloud will thicken through the morning with SE winds increasing and rain spreading NE through the day, some heavy. It will remain mild. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON SUNDAY OCTOBER 20TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON SATURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013 Today will see the weather begin cloudy and damp but through the morning skies will brighten. It will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places later or even longer spells of rain for a time but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely later in the day. Temperatures will be on the warm side again around 17C in any afternoon sunshine and the fresh Southerly wind. Tonight will see further spells of broken cloud interspersed with occasional showers and a fresh to strong Southerly breeze. Some of the showers could contain some thunder and lightning here and there as they pass. It will be another unseasonably mild night with temperatures close to 12C. Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON SATUURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2013 Tonight will stay cloudy over the area with a fresh SSE breeze. It will be a very mild night with temperatures unlikely to fall below 12C by dawn. There will be some drier interludes but with some outbreaks of rain too, some of which may be heavy locally. On Saturday the weather will begin cloudy and damp but through the morning skies will brighten. It will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places later or even longer spells of rain for a time but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely later in the day. Temperatures will be on the warm side again around 17C in any afternoon sunshine and the fresh Southerly wind. Sunday will be a bright day with sunshine and showers, again some of which could be heavy with thunder in places. Some drier spells will occur as well and it will again be a mild day for this time in October. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. On Tuesday and Wednesday current thinking is that it will be very windy and showery days with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind and some longer spells of heavy rain too. A few brighter intervals are possible in between. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON SATUURDAY OCTOBER 19TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013 Friday will become cloudy, damp and windy but mild as some rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day. Most of the rain will be light and intermittent but some heavier bursts are possible in the West of the County with a moderate to fresh Southerly wind. It will be rather mild and breezy in the West of the county with temperatures still well above average at 17C. Tonight will be another cloudy night with showery rain still around slowly dying down late in the night though not completely. Through the night it will become misty again over the hills with temperatures no lower than 11C. On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places perhaps with thunder or, longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely on Sunday. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. On Tuesday current thinking is that it will be a very windy and showery day with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind. A few brighter intervals are possible too. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 20:00 HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 18:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013 Tonight will see dry weather across the region and with light winds overnight mist and fog will readily form in the East of the County becoming dense in places. Further West cloud will increase later in the night with some occasional rain in West Somerset by dawn. Temperatures will stay on the mild side tonight with values no lower than 9C in the foggy East and 12C in the cloudier West. Winds will settle South or SE by dawn. Friday will become cloudy, damp and windy but mild as some rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day. Most of the rain will be light and intermittent but some heavier bursts are possible in the West of the County with a moderate to fresh Southerly wind. Things may become drier and clearer towards the end of the day. On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places or even longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well, these most likely on Sunday. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. On Tuesday current thinking is that it will be a very windy and showery day with some heavy showers driven on by a near gale SW wind. A few brighter intervals are possible too. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 08:00 HRS ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 18TH 2013

SOMERSET & BANES 5 DAY FORECAST 5 DAY FORECAST ISSUED AT 08:00HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013 Today will be brighter day across the area with just a few scattered showers, especially at first in North and NE Somerset though even here many places will remain dry. There will be some good sunny intervals and it will feel relatively mild in a lighter WNW wind backing SW or South again by evening as cloud increases again from the SW. Maximum Temperatures through the day will be near 17C in the afternoon, well above average for mid October. Tonight will see dry weather across the region and with light winds overnight mist and fog will readily form in the East of the County becoming dense in places. Further West cloud will increase later in the night with some occasional rain in West Somerset b dawn. Temperatures will stay on the mild side tonight with values no lower than 9C in the foggy East and 12C in the cloudier West. Winds will settle South or SE by dawn. Friday will become cloudy, damp and windy but mild as some rain spreads NE across all parts of the region through the day.Most of the rain will be light and intermittent with a moderate Southerly wind for a time. Things may become drier and clearer towards the end of the day. On Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue mild and rather breezy with heavy showers in places or even longer spells of rain at times but with some drier and brighter intervals as well. Monday will probably become cloudy and windy through the day with rain spreading NE across the area in maintained mild conditions. Compiled By Martin Gibbs NEXT UPDATE AT 19:00 HRS ON THURSDAY OCTOBER 17TH 2013

Try this company. They cater for all budgets and have a big range of models digital and otherwise.http://www.weather-station-products.co.uk/weather-stations

Should do and your area and mine are in range after midnight.