Gibby

What is lacking on this feature today is a squall line to clear the rain band. As it is we appear to just drift from persistent rain to more showery bursts in presumably brighter skies soon. Bit more rain that some folks on here today 15.6mm currently

I think the area at most risk of any snow tonight will be my little patch along with Exmoor Dartmoor and possibly Bodmin Moor. With a cold feed direct from the West showers should be funnelled up the Bristol Channel crossing areas from the Mendips North towards South Gloucestershire and North Wiltshire. Wouldn't be at all surprised to see a covering on the high ground around here tomorrow morning plus the added chance of hail and thunder a period of much volatility coming up.

Good morning. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 25th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a deepening depression moving towards NW Scotland with fronts crossing quickly East across the UK with yet another spell of heavy rain and strong winds. This moves away quickly East followed by clearer and showery weather. Temperatures will fall too with showers turning wintry with snow in places, even on low ground in Southern areas with hail and thunder also possible. This showery theme will continue through tomorrow and Tuesday as the Low pressure area responsible moves only slowly South across Britain reaching Southern areas by Wednesday. As it moves to the South winds swing Easterly and enhance the chill with further wintry showers and as winds become lighter after midweek the greater incidence of night frosts look likely. GFS then shows a new Low approaching from the West with a front moving slowly East over Britain with rain preceded by snow moving West to East over the UK towards next weekend clearing away East by Sunday with slightly milder air especially in the West. The second half of the run then shows a very inclement and wet period as further deep Low pressure areas continue to run into the UK from the Atlantic with rain and strong winds at times and temperatures returning close to normal offset by the wind. The GFS Ensembles show good support for the somewhat colder period this week slowly giving way to more average temperature levels with rain at times through the amounts of rain stated by the operational run later is not as well supported. UKMO closes it's run at the start of next weekend with a strong High pressure block to the East with a front moving into Western areas later on Saturday threatening rain and snow in what will be a cold and breezy day next Saturday with a strengthening SE wind. GEM also shows this block holding firm and indeed intensifying over Scandinavia by the close of the run. Through next weekend fronts will push against the block giving a strong threat of significant snow in places before things dry up but become very cold in a strengthening Easterly flow by the end of the run. NAVGEM too shows an active trough moving very slowly East across Western Britain with a band of significant snow edging slowly East while shearing SE into Europe later as the cold block to the NE holds firm. ECM's operational run pushes the cold block further East with the net result being an easy win for Atlantic Low pressure next weekend bringing rain West to East over all areas, preceded by a short spell of snow in places and followed by less cold and changeable weather with rain at times, this becoming more pronounced towards the North and West as pressure rises to the South. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the chances of the Scandinavian High holding as relatively weak as the Low pressure to the NW shows a bias of allowing SW or South winds more likely to be across the UK with no doubt rain at times with a pressure rise over Southern Europe responsible for this with the most rain across Western areas. The Jet Stream based on the GFS model Ensemble group show a preference to a strong flow across the Atlantic either crossing the UK on it's route to Southern Europe or being to the South of the UK at times. In Summary the very interesting synoptics persist as Low pressure areas continue to run up against a cold block across NE Europe. We have GFS and ECM on the one side of the fence today pushing the block away with ease later this week and maintaining largely unsettled and sometimes wet weather across the UK in temperatures returning to more average levels after the cold week this week. On the other hand we have UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM show a much more bullish attitude to the block next weekend resulting in the very real chance of a significant snowfall somewhere across Britain dependent on the resting position of the push of Atlantic air from the West. What complicates matters today is that both the GFS and ECM ensembles support their operational runs to some degree of certainty which sets the other groups from which we have no such ensemble data to hand, more standalone in nature but despite this I feel that GFS and ECM push the block away too easily later this week and my thoughts lean more towards a UKMO, GEM or NAVGEM type solutions but of course I could be wrong..so more runs needed.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday January 25th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure crossing the Atlantic sending a set of troughs quickly East across the UK later tonight and tomorrow with wind and rain sweeping East, heavy at times and giving rise to further flooding problems tomorrow. Through the afternoon and behind the cold front skies will brighten with squally showers of rain and hail likely with thunder in places and sleet or snow over the hills tomorrow night. through the early days of the week the parent Low responsible for the wind and wintry showers sinks South over the UK and away to the South by midweek with the outbreaks of rain and wintry showers clearing away South soon after midweek. GFS then shows unsettled weather returning from the NW with Westerly winds with rain at times being the order of the day with snow at times over the hills of the North as temperatures only recover slowly from the rather cold levels that will be present this coming week. Late in the run the disturbed weather remains to be shown courtesy of deep Low pressure to the NW with strong SW winds and rain at times and average temperatures for early February. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a short rather colder spell through the early and middle part of the coming week before temperatures recover to more average levels. The weather remains unsettled throughout with rain or snow at times through this week and strong winds and rain at times through week 2. UKMO has a new Low pressure up to the NW of the UK next Friday with strengthening West or SW winds with rain sweeping East again over the UK preceded by snow for some places in the East for a time. GEM also shows the Atlantic winding up again later next week as Low pressure moves in towards the NW of Britain with less cold and windy weather with rain at times and snow over the hills of the North in the showery spells between the rain bands. NAVGEM keeps Low pressure areas slipping SE over the UK later next week maintaining rather chilly and unsettled weather over the UK with mostly NW winds and rain followed by wintry showers the most likely sequence of events. ECM tonight also shows an altogether milder outlook from later next week as Low pressure begins to take a more Northerly route as the block over Europe collapses. The weather will remain no less wet with further spells of rain and very breezy conditions returning after a short drier interlude soon after midweek. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a trend towards a much shallower circulation over the UK around Low pressure to the NW. With a bias towards a windflow from the South or SW this is at last a departure from a UK or North Sea based trough and I would suggest that with a switch of winds from a NW bias to that shown is indicative of a rather less cold and still unsettled pattern looking likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strong flow across the Atlantic and Southern Europe. The general strength of the flow remains unchanged with the basic proximity of the flow remaining close to the UK throughout the period and occasionally to the South. In Summary tonight the weather has stepped back from the predicted cold of yesterday to something much less wintry again with Low pressure off a volatile Atlantic continuing to pile drive Low pressure areas in towards the British Isles from the NW and west. With the block to the East now showing signs of collapse the door is opened for more progressive Atlantic wind and rain bands to cross over and away to the East of the UK with temperatures slowly recovering to average values later.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report of the midnight outputs of the NWP for this morning Saturday January 25th 2014 and updated and raised twice daily from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure moving across the Atlantic towards NW Beitain later today with attendant fronts crossing the Atlantic too and approaching Western Britain by midnight tonight. This follows a brief ridge of High pressure which keeps many Southern areas dry today with some showers in the North, heavy and wintry for a time. Tomorrow sees the fronts cross East over all areas with a spell of heavy rain then showers sweeping East with further flooding issues in places. Through Sunday night and Monday the weather will be very windy and showery as well as become colder with wintry showers over hills, even in the South with hail and thunder too in places. Through this time Low pressure will be slipping South over the UK to be across Southern Britain on Tuesday with rain and showers continuing with sleet or snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. Then by midweek the Low exits the South with a period of cold Easterly winds carrying wintry showers West over the UK with snow most likely over the hills and in the East. GFS then has the second half of the week with the cold East flow dissolving away with Atlantic low pressure areas returning rather cold and changeable weather from the NW with further rain at times expected with snow over Northern hills. Later in the run Low pressure becomes even more pronounced up to the NW with bands of rain then showers sweeping East over the UK with strong winds too in places with temperatures returning to average values. The GFS Ensembles show a spell of colder weather this week as winds swing to a NE or East quadrant briefly. This isn't shown to last long though as milder Atlantic air returns across all areas with rain and wind at times and temperatures returning to average. UKMO today closes it's morning output with next Friday being very cold and breezy with Easterly winds carrying some wintry showers of sleet and snow across Eastern and Southern areas while Northern areas become dry and chilly with frosty nights but sunshine by day. GEM today shows a cold and unsettled spell developing next week as Low pressure takes a much more Southerly aspect with Easterly winds the trend over the UK with rain, sleet and snow at times with some substantial falls possible in places almost anywhere but chiefly over the hills. NAVGEM this morning also shows cold Easterly winds holding their own this morning for later this coming week with some snow and sleet showers or even longer spells of precipitation likely in the West and South at times towards next weekend. ECM today is disappointing for those looking for cold and snowy weather as it quickly removes the Easterly feed soon after midweek in the place of a depression moving ESE into the North Sea with more rain followed by chilly and showery weather feeding down from the NW by next weekend. However, it does somewhat redress the cold balance later by suggesting cold and unstable air developing over the UK late in the run with the chance of rain, sleet and snow in the West as a front bumps up against the cold block still just about holding on to the East. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows a trend towards a UK rough the most likely in 9 and 10 days time on an axis which runs off Southern Greenland the UK to Italy. Whilst this trend is not bad for incursions from the cold continental air the pattern could do to be further west still to enable us to stand a better chance of tapping into something more meaningful. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast sees the strong flow crossing the Atlantic continuing to be diverted South across or to the West of Britain before turning East over southern Europe. This trend remains for a time with even the flow eventually taking a more direct route East to the South of the UK in the second half of the run. In Summary today the weather remains very unstable and often wet as Low pressure continues to dominate proceedings over the next 4-6 days at least. Through this period it's position will change as it migrates South of the UK to bring a spell of cold East winds and possible snow in places later this week. How long will it last is hard to determine from today's output with the ECM and GFS throwing a spanner in the works as both shows progressive conditions late next week which cut off any Continental influence for a time as new Low pressure slips into the North Sea with NW winds carrying rain then wintry showers across the UK later. This pattern is also backed up quite strongly by the GFS Ensembles. However, other output is rather more compelling with UKMO, GEM and NAVGEM all looking much more sustained with regard to longevity in it's cold output. So we have a stand off between these giants of the model field and which one is right? I'm afraid more runs are needed before this one becomes any clearer so we must expect more changes good and bad in the operational outputs of all models over the coming days. My best advice will be to watch the ensembles as they may give a better idea of where we are going than any individual operational run from any model alone.

Tonight's Fax Charts are out and they aren't that bad, especially Wednesday's with cold air flooding West over Europe and Low pressure close to the South with the 528 dam line suitably placed for some wet snow possibilities in the South. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack3.html http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.html

Hi everyone. Here is my interpretation of the midday outputs of the NWP for today Friday January 24th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show an occluding front slowly crossing East overnight with a spell of rain for all followed by drier but murky weather later in the night. Tomorrow will see a freshening Westerly flow with showers in the NW at first then areas further SE for a time late in the day Then overnight and over Sunday wind and cloud will increase from the West with gales and heavy rain sweeping East over the UK through the day. By evening winds will swing Westerly and it will turn much colder with wintry showers sweeping East over many areas through Sunday night and Monday. The parent Low is then shown to drift slowly SE over Britain through the early days of next week with further showers or outbreaks of rain at times and as it turns colder generally some snowfall will occur, chiefly in Northern and Eastern Britain and over hills elsewhere too. GFS then takes us through the second half of next week with a short drier interlude before the weather returns to very unsettled conditions again with further spells of heavy rain and strong winds as further Low pressure areas move East or SE over the UK. With temperatures rather lower than recently there is always the chance of some snowfall too, especially over the hills and in the North. The GFS Ensembles continue to show a rather colder period with spells of precipitation, mostly of rain but some of snow throughout the next few weeks as there remains little respite in the barrage of bad weather moving into the UK from the West or NW. UKMO tonight shows a sinking Low pressure area slipping South from the UK at the middle of next week and on into Southern Europe. Increasingly cold and unsettled weather continues with some rain at times and some sleet or snow looks likely over the hills of Southern Britain for a time around midweek while the North becomes dry and bright for a time if cold and frosty. GEM tonight shows strong trough disruption over the British Isles throughout the latter stages of it's run with plenty more rain and sleet with snow over the hills later next week and the weekend. NAVGEM closes it's run with a quieter interlude following the early week's rain and snow before a new surge of Low pressure looks like sliding back down over the UK later next week. ECM pulls yet another powerful depression SE across the UK later next week hardly giving this coming weekend's and next weeks Low time to clear away it's rain and snow before introducing more problems again later next week with rain and strong winds preceded by snow in places over the North and East and doubtless more flooding to SW Britain. then at the end of the run this Low too pulls away to the South with slack pressure in cold air developing over the UK with outbreaks of rain, sleet or snow still possible in light winds. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show further trough disruption over the UK being spawned by Low pressure off Southern Greenland through the South of the UK to Italy. High pressure will likely be as strong as ever across Scandinavia and NE Europe feeding cold East or SE winds on the Northern and NE periphery of the UK trough. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows a strengthening flow moving across the Atlantic and moving South over the UK early next week and then East across Southern Europe. This trajectory is maintained and pulled back a little West next week which is the catalyst for colder air to infiltrate over part of the British Isles at least at times next week. In Summary tonight the weather looks a right mess with rain and showers a common theme of most days of the next two weeks. What is rather different is the lower temperatures we are all going to encounter bringing a real risk of some of the rain falling wintry with some accumulating snow at times, chiefly over Northern and Eastern areas but areas further South and West at times too. Low pressure of course remains the driving force to all this inclement weather with repeated centre's drifting SE across the UK and increasing the already dire flooding conditions here in Somerset at the moment. What is important and could be instrumental in February's weather is the dogged nature of the persisting cold block over Europe which while keeping parts of the UK in worryingly wet conditions it could also import cold into our shores at times with a continuing snow risk for some.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 weather models for today Friday January 24th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a distinctly disturbed pattern as we move through the next 5-6 days with Low pressure slipping slowly down over the UK early next week to lie close to Southern Britain by midweek. I can more definitively confirm too this morning that it is going to turn colder across all areas next week allowing some of the rain to turn to sleet and snow, principally but not exclusively towards the North and East. Much of the rain and snow will be showery though a prolonged spell of heavy rain is likely to sweep East on Sunday with strong Westerly winds early in the week swing easterly by midweek over all areas except Southernmost Britain. GFS then shows a brief respite in the wind, rain and snow later next week with frost at night for a time before further unsettled and chilly weather with rain at times and snow on hills return from next weekend onward to the end of the run with further snow at times on Northern hills. The GFS Ensembles this morning show a period of colder weather on the way if not desperately so. Nevertheless with unsettled conditions continuing throughout there is plenty more distressing levels of rain shown at times with certainly some snowfall over the higher ground in particular before a trend towards more average temperatures but still unsettled weather is shown towards the end of the run. UKMO today shows a cold Easterly flow across the UK through the middle section of next week with Low pressure just to the South. Outbreaks of rain across the UK will fall as snow in places with some accumulation possible over the hills, more especially but not exclusively in the North and East. GEM today shows increasingly cold and wintry conditions next week with further spells of rain turning to snow giving some accumulations of snow at times, even in the South as cold Easterly winds undercut advancing Low pressure towards the SW of the UK. NAVGEM shows the colder weather midweek with rain and snow clearing away South to be followed by a return to milder westerly winds and rain at times by the end of next week. ECM shows an altogether colder feed of air across the UK as the North Sea trough backs West. the net result is a colder spell to come with spells of rain still bothering in amount at times across the South and West. In addition with colder air making deeper inroads into the UK from both the East and NW at times the trend towards rain turning to snow in places next week is an increasing one even in the South. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show that the trough that has been shown down the North Sea, too far away from the UK to receive anything cold from the East pulled back West by 200 miles or so over the last day or so to lie down across the UK and on SE into Europe. This has increased the risk of cold weather developing widely across Northern and Eastern areas later next week with snow at times and with Low pressure areas expected to continue to slide SE down across the SW of the UK then some of this could extend to Southern and western areas too at times. The charts also indicate that there is unlikely to be much relief from flooding issues either with pressure values circa 1000mbs or less. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is currently undergoing it's strengthening across the Atlantic, turning South to the West of the UK and then turning East across Europe. The flow diverted South to the West of the UK rather than over the UK (shown in recent days) is as a net result of colder conditions from Europe making more inroads into UK air space. In Summary this morning I can easily declare this to be my most wintry report so far this Winter. With a shift West of the trough which has recently been lying down the North Sea recently looks like it is going to lie across the UK later next week. As a result the UK rather than the North Sea becomes the battleground for Low pressure areas bumping into the cold block to the East with cold air allowed to undercut from the East, all this following a Low pressure sinking South away from Southern Britain midweek with it's own mixture of rain and snow to get rid of. Snowfall will be most coherent across the North and East especially over the hills with rain rather than snow still most likely towards the SW. However, this remains unwelcome news as there remains little prospect of anything other than misery for quite a while yet for those flood stricken areas of my area in the SW with so much more precipitation of any form likely.

Good evening folks. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 23rd 2014 and lifted from my website on http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models agree on the progress of events over the UK for the next 5-6 days before some differences between the models begins to crop up by the middle of next week. A complex trough structure bringing milder air will move erratically East over the UK tonight and tomorrow with rainfall for many giving rise to further flooding possibilities in the already sodden areas of the SW. By Saturday a window of drier air will of arrived with a showery NW flow and it will feel colder than tomorrow will. On Sunday a major depression is shown to approach NW Britain and this trundles SE towards SE England by midweek. After a wet period for all on Sunday strong Westerly winds and heavy showers, wintry on hills will give way to quite cloudy conditions towards midweek with further outbreaks of rain and as colder air is drawn into the UK by midweek on the Northern periphery of the Low some of the rain will turn to sleet and snow in places, mostly across the North and East. GFS then shows the remains of the cold flow across the South give way to a return to westerly winds and changeable weather at the end of the week and weekend with further rain and showers crossing the UK from a very active Atlantic with very little overall change out to the end of the run. The GFS Ensembles show a continuing unsettled period with Low pressure well in control. The air will turn colder for a time next week with the chance of some snow over the North and East but the likelihood of milder air returning soon afterwards remains quite high as the Atlantic depressions maintain control to the North. UKMO tonight shows a slow moving filling Low pressure close to SE England with a cloudy and raw day for many with rain or sleet in places and some sleet and snow over the higher ground of the north and East for a time. GEM shows the remains of any cold easterly flow over the South along with any remaining rain or sleet moving away South to be replaced by Westerly winds and further Low pressure areas crossing the UK keeping the wet and windy theme going with temperatures likely to return to near or somewhat below average. NAVGEM also removes the remnants of the Low pressure area from the SE later next week with milder Atlantic Westerly winds taking control over all areas again with rain and showers moving back in from the West by next weekend. ECM tonight shows Low pressure to the SE filling quickly shortly after midweek with the resultant cold Easterly flow dissolving away along with any rain and hill snow. Then the weather returns to wet and windy conditions as further Low pressure and fronts ride in on the back of a strong Atlantic Jet stream later next week and weekend. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show the bias being towards the UK lying in the path of Low pressure stretching between Southern Greenland and South Iceland to the UK and on down into Italy. The trough has sharpened tonight with lower pressure indicating more trough disruption over the UK and Low pressure areas in their own merit diving SE over the UK. The pattern has shifted a couple of hundred miles West in the last 24 hours or so and this could be sufficient to continue some wintry interest for the NE of the UK still in 10 days while the rest see cold rain and showers on a chilly NW'ly flow as the most common weather type likely. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is undergoing a strengthening over the next few days with a very strong flow persisting from the weekend and throughout next week and possibly beyond maintaining it's trajectory of crossing the Atlantic and into the UK before turning South then East over Southern Europe. In Summary tonight things remain very volatile and very interesting from a synoptic point of view. We have the classic battle of East vs West with the battleground just too far East due to a stronger than usual Jet Stream adding extra oomph and push against the block meaning we don't tap into any real exciting wintry weather over the British Isles with regard to widespread snowfall. However, being positioned as we are geographically puts us in the firing line for frequent decelerating troughs moving into the UK on the back of a powerful Jet Stream and delivering spells of copious rainfall mixed with colder and more showery spells when some snowfall could occur on higher ground. The longer term prospects do not look good for drier weather anytime soon and concern is continuing to be very high for worsening flooding issues for some over the coming period.

Well I see I have come in for a bit of stick this morning but that's fine. Constructive criticism is fine and I welcome it because I certainly ain't no God in weather circles and can get it as wrong as the next man. I do take issue with the fact that someone mentioned I copy my reports from the Met Office outlooks which is totally wrong. Yes I read them but my reports are printed long before they are issued anyway. Anyway I have looked again at the output I compiled my report upon this morning and had I been rewriting it as of now I would of changed nothing and not surprising to me the updated Met Office mid term forecast leans closer to my reports way of thinking rather than some snowfest posts I have read in here. When it gets to the 12zs later if they show something more akin to widespread snowfall next week I will be first to report it but until I do and it falls within the 72-96hr timeframe I refuse to become excited by anything on offer at the moment. The main reason for my thoughts is the strength of the Jet flow exiting the States which strengthens further over the coming days and this coupled with a very strong Azores High pressure area anchored in it's home base and the seemingly endless procession of Low pressure out of the States there is little wriggle room for anything to come from the East affecting anywhere other than the far NE for a time next week. Incidentally, I do have some access to charts not released to the General Public but am not allowed to give info as to what and where they're from-sorry . With regard to snow next week, personally I hope I'm wrong because contrary to what many people on here think I love snow and would like nothing more than to see a strong East flow with UK wide coverage but that looks unlikely for the reasons I've just mentioned. Apologies to Mods for straying a little off topic but felt as a matter of respect I ought to respond to some of the issues raised to me this morning. Thanks.

Nah not a problem to me. I can take criticism and I am always the first to admit when I'm wrong and I do get it wrong sometimes but to me the charts this morning didn't look right for snow anywhere other than parts of the North and that is what has been borne out in the updated mid term Met outlook this morning. Mind you that's not to say it won't snow next week here in the SW but my predictions this morning were based on the 00z output and no more. If I feel tonight's 12z offer something more hopeful I will report it. of more concern to me and imo should be within the Mod discussion is the swamp the UK is currently and what it's likely to become in the next week if this morning's charts verify. But as always over there this is glossed over by most in search of a wet blob of snow but hey ho everyone to their own.

Good morning. Here is today's report for the output issued from the NWP for Thursday and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a very unsettled period to come overall areas for the next week. Through the period there will be a couple of active frontal systems affecting much of the UK, one tomorrow and another on Sunday when the parent depression will continue to affect the UK weather all the way into the middle of next week as it drifts slowly SE across the UK to lie close to or to the South of the UK by midweek. throughout the period we are all going to see much more rainfall, heavy and disruptive in places, especially in those areas already affected by flooding issues. Some brief drier interludes are possible at times but nowhere are these expected to last for long. Winds will also be strong at times especially on Sunday and Monday. Temperatures will be average or thereabouts but it may become colder briefly towards the middle of next week as the low slips to the South of the UK bringing an injection of cold Easterlies briefly; GFS then sees out next week with yet another depression moving SE over the UK with further rain and strong winds with overall not much in the way of a sustained improvement through the rest of the run with average temperatures returning with any snowfall restricted to northern hills. The GFS Ensembles do show a mean value suggesting a rather cold spell of weather but nothing desperately so with snowfall remaining quite elusive away from the hills. Rainfall in general is shown to be quite well spread about over the period as unsettled weather persists though amounts do trend downwards gradually with time. UKMO remains very troubling with regard to heavy rainfall as Low pressure having arrived at the start of the week still remains well in control close to Southern Britain next Wednesday with heavy showers and longer spells of rain still likely over many areas, worst in the South. Somewhat colder conditions over the North could give rise to some wintry weather over the hills. GEM is a little more optimistic as we move towards the end of next week with Low pressure taking rain and sleet away from the South midweek before a ridge brings a drier interlude with some sunshine and frost at night though further weaker fronts moving SE will keep rain a feature at times, this time more especially in the North. NAVGEM also shows a welcome ridge to bring an interlude to the wet weather late next week but by the end of the run stronger and milder SW winds have already infiltrated their way back into the NW with some rain. ECM today shows the end of next week as unsettled as ever with the early week Low pressure moving away soon after midweek with rain and sleet clearing away ahead of renewed Westerly winds or gales and spells of rain and showers likely for all areas again long before the weekend. Temperatures will return closer to normal after a colder snap midweek. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show no overall change to those of late and maintain the pattern that has been shown now for more than a week. The net result is that the UK lies under or on the western flank of a broad trough created by Low pressure to the NW and sliding troughs down across the UK maintaining chilly and sometimes wet weather interspersed with sunshine and showers, some wintry. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is currently undergoing a strengthening as it exits the states and this will remain the case for more than a week as it powers across the Atlantic towards the UK before turning South across us and away over Southern Europe. It's not until the less reliable time lapse before it is shown to weaken. mostly due to natural variability in member solutions at that range. In Summary this morning the weather looks very unsettled and often windy and wet. This of course is not what many want to here but unfortunately it is what is shown throughout the output with just a brief window of drier weather late next week from some of the less reliable output. For those looking for cold the window of opportunity has closed even more this morning with just a day or two at most near the middle of next week the time when a little wintry weather could be apparent, mostly in the North. However, with regard to importance this remains a miniscule factor in what by far the most newsworthy factors of this morning's output is the continuing probability of troubling rainfalls, likely to make the headlines again next week rather than snowfall.

Tonight's Fax Charts are indeed very worrying for much of Britain let alone the SW and quite honestly without all the rain that has fallen recently they would raise a few eyebrows of environment agencies and the like even after a spell of average rainfall. http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t48 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t60 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t72 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t84 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t96 http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120 Apologies for the bad links. You can scroll to all charts from one page.

Unable to post my regular report over to you tonight but for those who wish to read it you can find it on my website at this link http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

I think raising the concern of rain here Ian is falling on deaf ears as most just look for one thing I'm afraid. i have relatives who live in Moorland Nr Bridgwater and I am quite concerned for their welfare if your weekend predictions come to fruition.

I concede that maybe a bit pessimistic but when typing it I was mindful that some models did not show any interjection from the East at all following this depression.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 22nd 2014 and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue the basic pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the SW and NE with a broad troughing down the North Sea. Through the period between now and the start of next week a series of troughs cross East over the UK, each bringing spells of rain and/or showers, heavy and prolonged at times and falling as snow at times over Northern hills, especially tomorrow. Friday and again on Sunday look likely to be the most wet days with flooding issues again becoming possible in places in blustery winds at times. Temperatures will be close to average but there will be some chilly days, most likely tomorrow and a few mild ones most notably on Friday as the rain pushes over. GFS then shows next week as a very windy and unsettled one with further showers or longer spells of rain in a blustery WNW wind at times. Late in the week a drier interlude with lighter winds and night frosts look likely as a ridge of High pressure is shown to sink South behind a departing depression to the SE. The end frames of the run show no change with the Atlantic bandwagon of Low pressure continuing delivering rain at times in a blustery Westerly wind and average temperatures. The GFS Ensembles show little change to the rather chilly and unsettled weather but it looks unlikely to turn very cold with most members maintaining average temperatures just below the long term mean. Rainfall looks like continuing to be a feature for all throughout the period but the amounts of rain trend downward with time, especially towards the South and SE. UKMO closes it's run this morning with a deep Low pressure area over the NW next Monday sliding SSE down over the UK maintaining a very unsettled start to next week with showers and longer spells of rain likely for all areas in temperatures a little on the cool side with no doubt some hill snow at times in the North. GEM too takes this depression down over the UK from the NW early next week with attendant rain and showers continuing for all before pressure rises slowly from the NW with colder weather with scattered wintry showers looking likely for a time before dry weather develops under a ridge of High pressure over Southern Britain late in the run with frosts at night. NAVGEM shows the Low drifting South over the UK early next week, moving it quite slowly away while bringing further rain and showers. On the rear side of the Low a period of cold Easterly winds are shown when cold air moves in and could turn some of the rain to sleet and snow before it exits away South at least from Scotland. ECM today shows the Low moving South on Wednesday with rain and showers for all. It is quickly followed by a strong Westerly flow with Low pressure areas crossing East to the North with further rain at times as troughs move ESE across the UK in the flow with yet more rain. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts this morning once again favour Low pressure to be to the North of the UK in 9 and 10 days time with a trough down the North Sea. It looks that as a result of this little overall change in the pattern of rain at times will continue as systems bump into the block over the Continent with the UK remaining on the Western side of the trough and therefore temperatures remaining near to or a little below normal at times in West or NW winds. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast today shows the flow strengthening at the weekend as it continues it's unrelenting path and trajectory over the Atlantic and down over the UK next week keeping the Atlantic Low pressure systems bumping into the block to the NE with some energy sliding SE and some NE and maintaining cold continental air at arms length across the other side of the North Sea. In Summary this morning apart from some variations on a theme shown between various operational outputs this morning the basic pattern looks largely the same with a trend shown that doesn't offer much change to what we have now. All areas look at risk from further bouts of wind and rain as successive Low pressure areas cross the Atlantic and push their troughs across the UK before stalling them to the East. Most models do show a deep Low pressure area slipping South over the UK next week and some do show a brief flirtation with something rather colder on the rear side of the exiting depression but with the Atlantic still being driven by a strong West to East flow over the Atlantic on the Northern Flank of a strong Azores High it is only a matter of hours rather than days before milder Westerly winds and further rain return across the UK later next week.

I understand the point you are making but my point was that the Azores High which is as present as ever in 10 days time will have a big impact on whether we get into deep enough cold for what everybody wants to see and those slightly colder anomaly's for the UK you illustrate will most likely be achieved via polar maritime air from the NW rather than anything from the East.

I wouldn't disagree with that but that warm pool down to the SW is having a large say still even in 10 days on the limited spread of the cold to the NE.

The problem is with these they are for De Bilt which is on the cold side of the trough down the North Sea. We in the Uk would not share any of this cold going by the current 10 Day Mean synopses likelihood. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

The way things are here in Somerset and given the output for the next two weeks no February snow will settle anyway as half the county is under water.

Don't post them across to get credits StuieW but just try to offer a balanced perspective from a thread that can become over burdened with posts looking for that elusive snowflake in what has been one of the most fascinating winter seasons that I have followed model wise for years. I know that will go down like a lead balloon for many on here but there really has been some fascinating model output over recent months and there still is plenty on offer on tonight's output. On a separate issue I have noticed that there is a lot of talk about wild swings between models and runs of length which I don't wholeheartedly agree with. Yes there has been the occasional divergence into a more wintry outlook but always in FI and only when viewed from an operational run's viewpoint. The Ensembles which I much prefer to gauge my end summary upon within my reports have maintained a lot of stability in their prediction of a maintained trough near or just to the East of the UK for what seems ages now, particularly ECM. I think people would get a better idea of the most likely outcome in 7-14 days time if they viewed these ensembles rather than get hung up on each individual operational run which shows something mouthwatering and probably off kilter from the rest of the member output.. This is not a criticism of anybody and the debate and constructive arguments at times from those more knowledgeable on here make for very interesting reading at the end of a long day and long may it continue. I just sometimes feel that the less knowledgeable can become disorientated by the skewed obsession from a wealth of posters on the one factor of weather which is the most rare in the UK. I agree with Ian Ferguson's earlier post which reflected the more important issues of impending further flooding issues that are likely as long as this current pattern persists rather than searching for snow which is far less likely currently. Finally from me tonight a note of optimism for coldies. Although the evidence for cold is not great at the moment going by tonight's output the building blocks are there to the NE and for those who can think back to my Winter Forecast I suggested then that February offered the best hope for cold and snow this Winter in the UK and that still stands as of now.

Good evening. Here is the report from the 12 midday outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Tuesday January 21st 2014. All models show an unsettled and changeable period between now and the start of next week. A band of rain is shown to be currently crossing the UK with clearer and more showery weather following on behind. Tomorrow will see the front bringing the rain only slowly clearing away East out into the North Sea with the rain clearing slowly. Elsewhere a showery West or NW flow blows with showers forming in organized bands both tomorrow and Thursday. By Friday a new trough delivers more appreciable wind and rain through the day and this will be repeated on Sunday with Saturday being the best of the weekend days with sunshine and showers most likely. Throughout this period temperatures will be up and down but never overly cold or mild over the period. GFS tonight then shows next week and indeed beyond unsettled and occasionally windy with showers and longer spells of rain continuing in generally West or NW winds with a few brief Northerly incursions for some pepping up the potential for wintry showers at times but never substantial away from the high ground of the North. The GFS Ensembles are nothing exceptional tonight whatever your preferences should be with plenty of unsettled weather with rain at times blown in on pressure systems crossing the Atlantic and reaching the UK via the West or NW. Temperatures look a smidgen below average overall sufficiently enough for some snow on high ground of the North at times but generally of little consequence. UKMO starts the new week off with deep Low pressure moving ESE towards Scotland with a cool and showery WNW flow over the UK with some heavy showers perhaps with hail and thunder and snow over high ground in the North. GEM shows the Low over Scotland next Monday sinking South over the UK and down into Europe with cold and showery weather with some hill snow at times. Late in the run continuing changeable weather seems likely as further troughs move across from the West and NW with more rain and temperatures returning to average. NAVGEM pushes complex Low pressure out to the NW on Monday South over the UK with showers and longer spells of rain continuing well into the middle of next week. ECM also continues changeable weather through next week with rain or showers at times, probably heavy and persistent at first but with increasingly lengthy drier periods between the rain bands later in the week as the slightly chilly conditions revert towards more average temperatures by the end of the run as winds turn Westerly. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which I highly regard when looking at the probabilities of where we will be standing in 9 and 10 Days time have remained rock solid with the current pattern for what seems an age now and tonight's charts are no exception. In 9 or 10 days time it looks like we will still be staring down the barrel of a stand off between High pressure to the NE and SW with the UK lying on the Western periphery of a North Sea trough with continuing spells of rain and showers in West or NW winds and temperatures near or a fraction below average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to show very little change in trajectory and course over the coming few weeks as it continues to cross the Atlantic before turning South over the UK towards Southern Europe and then East over the Med. The flow does strengthen for a time next week. In Summary there remains little chance of any significant dry weather over the course of the output tonight. There will again be plenty of rain in areas that could well do without it. For those looking for cold weather there seems little sign of that either tonight with the pattern that we have now remaining in situ for some considerable time to come. However, having said that the air that crosses the UK on the rear of exiting depressions could well be cold enough for some snowfall on hills, especially in the North but once more tonight there seems little sign of any meaningful cold and snowfall.

Good morning. Here is today's morning report on the NWP from their midnight release for today Tuesday January 21st 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to paint a changeable period over all areas for the next 5-6 days. The current area of slack winds over the UK will give way to freshening SW winds ahead of a trough which crosses the UK from west to East today and tonight. Rain and hill snow in the North will move steadily East over the UK today and tonight replacing the morning frost and fog in the East. Clearer showery air in a WNW breeze will follow to the West tonight and the East too tomorrow with Wednesday and Thursday staying showery with some heavy and thundery ones with snow on hills likely in the North. By Friday a weak ridge dampens down the showers before a further band of rain crosses East through the day. Over the weekend another spell of NW winds with scattered showers seems likely ahead of a major depression early by the start of next week. GFS shows this Low pressure becoming a major role player in next weeks weather with a major feature slipping South down over the UK next week with spells of windy weather with rain and showers for all with some wintriness at times over the hills of the North in particular. Changeable weather will continue thereafter with rather drier weather across the South for longer between the rain bands with temperatures remaining close to or a little below average in a mostly Westerly breeze. The GFS Ensembles show a rather cold picture this morning mostly caused by a cold NW flow of winds from Low pressure areas sliding SE over the UK. There is unlikely to be any distinctly cold conditions but with precipitation continuing to feature through all parts of the output some of this could fall as snow at times over the hills and in the North. UKMO today shows the weather next Monday with a deep Low pressure to the NW with strong Westerly winds carrying spells of rain then showers across the UK at the start of next week when it will feel somewhat cold. GEM shows a very unsettled week with next week with Low pressure areas slipping SE down the East of the UK and the North Sea driving rather chilly West and NW winds with rain and showers falling as snow at times on hills and in the North. NAVGEM also shows Low pressure slipping South over the UK with a wet and windy period with rain and showers and snow on hills through the middle of next week. ECM is not dissimilar ending the run with a ridge of High pressure from the cold High to the NE over the UK giving rise to clearing rain and sleet away from the South after a very wet period earlier in the week and spreading dry and cold conditions SE across Britain with sharp frost and dense fog patches the likely features across Britain by Day 10. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Chart shows the stalemate pattern continuing in 10 days time with the pattern of High pressure to the NE coupled with a strong Azores anticyclone together with Low pressure to the NW and a broad trough down across the North Sea and on into Southern Europe. The net result weather wise meaning further rain and showers likely moving down from the NW and becoming slow moving just to the East of Britain with periods of showery weather likely in the West under a chilly NW flow at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's basic pattern though with some strengthening of the flow for a time next week responsible for the deep depression many models predict slipping South over the UK next week. In the far reaches of the run the flow may weaken again but maintain a similar position so changes in any weather pattern look very slow from this morning's prediction. In Summary the weather remains in an unsettled state as the stand off continues between a cold block over NE Europe and milder Atlantic winds bumping into it from the West. The net result still favours the milder air winning out as far as the UK is concerned though things do get perilously close for very cold weather to reach our shores at times. As it stands on the models today most predict the battleground likely to be over the North Sea keeping the UK on the milder side of a broad trough maintaining spells of rain followed by showery and chilly NW winds and showers with brief drier spells when fog and frost becomes possible. The one thing to note though despite what I have just said is that it would only take small shifts in specifics to increase the prospect for cold over the UK in a much more meaningful way..we will just have to see how the models continue the battle over the coming days.

I think that had it been not for the expected strengthening of the Jet flow next week giving extra oomph to the Atlantic push from the weekend the path to cold would have been very much easier given the synoptics to the NE.