Gibby

Good morning. Here is my Monday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Monday February 24th 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled. All models show a Westerly flow briefly today before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after remaining rain clears it's way across the UK this morning a showery interlude follows before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tonight and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures. A new Low then brings rain and wind back over the UK towards the end of the week with some colder air developing with showers turning wintry over Northern hills towards the weekend. GFS then shows that thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North with the South staying largely dry close to high pressure to the South. Temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under NW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php The GFS Ensembles endorse the operational this morning with a lot of dry and bright weather for Southern areas as High pressure lies to the South and SW. Some rain filters across the North at times from the Atlantic but overall conditions shown are far better than of late. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 UKMO closes today with next Sunday being a breezy day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over the North of Scotland and another over Biscay. The weather will be generally unsettled and showery with wintry showers over high ground. The model has taken a step back by delaying the progression of fine weather early next week following the unsettled weekend. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021 GEM continues to show changeable weather well into next week as further troughs round a High pressure area to the SW with rain at times for many gradually becoming more pronounced to Northern and Western Britain. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 The GEM Ensembles though changeable to begin with do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found in the South from next weekend on as High pressure ridges NE to be positioned over Britain late in the run. Isolated rain events are shown in the North and while winds be much lighter than of late it will also become rather mild in places later but with an increased risk of night frosts. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 NAVGEM today ends it's run with Low pressure well in charge across and around the UK to start next week with further rain at times in a blustery westerly wind and temperatures close to average, at least in the South. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 ECM's operational today has reverted back to a more settled phase of weather next week as High pressure builds strongly from the SW steering rain bearing systems away to the far North and keeping the UK in fine and bright daytime conditions with frosty night probable with light winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean charts look largely similar to those of last night indicating the UK could lie in a weak ridge of High pressure with Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores with a West flow of air likely over Britain with some fine weather at times, most coherent in the South with average temperatures for all with any rainfall slowly becoming more confined to the NW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Ensemble group continue to promote a lifting of the flow to higher latitudes across the Atlantic as the Azores High becomes more dominant promoting better weather for Southern areas at last while the North too sees less frequent spells of rain. Overall temperatures remain close to average with a flow on this trajectory NE across the Atlantic and the North of the UK in Week 2. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary there still seems strong support for pressure to rise from the west and SW next week. To what extent this occurs is open for debate still as UKMO and NAVGEM for example holds Low pressure over the UK still as late as next Sunday with only marginal improvements suggested at next week from them. ECM and some of the other output shows a much stronger improvement leading to High pressure over the UK later next week with some much welcomed fine and dry conditions for many with some night frosts. I feel there will be plenty more twists and turns as we battle are way through another week of wind and rain at times before perhaps we can look forward to something more akin to early Spring as we move into next week.

Good evening. Here is my Sunday review of the midday outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled. All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through tonight and accelerate away East tomorrow morning to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW tonight makes it's way across the UK slowly a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures. GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly but not exclusively in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure sometimes not far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems under NW winds. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0 The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions tonight with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times though even here rain and wind occurs at times. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over the North Sea. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground with some snowfall over the hills and not just in the North. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021 GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NE winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then High pressure builds from the SW to show a very ECM'esque 00z run solution with fine and dry weather with night frosts and milder westerly winds filtering across the North later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found in the South from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times to the SE. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while winds become strong SW'ly at times it will also become rather mild too later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack, cyclonic flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before Westerly winds return in the new week to return unsettled and changeable weather to many and temperatures just a little shy of average values. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 ECM's operational tonight is much more progressive in maintaining very changeable conditions as we move into the new week with Low pressure slipping ESE across the North and NE of Britain with rain and wintry showers at times across all areas. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean charts look largely similar to those of this morning indicating the UK could lie in a weak ridge of High pressure with Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores with a West or NW flow of air likely over Britain with some rain at times, most coherent in the North with average temperatures for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Ensemble group have reduced te amount of elevation in the axis of the flow through week 2 with the flow now shown to hold a position near to the UK meaning low pressure to the NW is allowed to dig further South through the British isles at times with High pressure held further South over Europe or the Atlantic. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary this evening the improvements of this morning have become more muted again tonight as the Atlantic once again is shown to be more than a match for the synoptic setup in a weeks time, pushing the ridge steadily away back South as Low pressure pulls back down over Britain. So after a week to come of more wind and rain it looks as though there will still be some unsettled to be had in Week 2 as well though there may be a shift in emphasis of rain towards Northernmost parts while the South and East eventually see longer drier periods in between the wind and rain.

Good morning. Here is my Sunday review of the midnight outputs issued by the NWP for today Sunday February 23rd 2014 as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. I am now including links to the data from which each section of my report is compiled. All models show a mild and broad SW flow across the UK with Low pressure to the NW. A trough lying SW to NE across NW areas is shown to slip SE through today and accelerate away East overnight to leave a Westerly flow briefly tomorrow before an active Low pressure systems streams in off the Atlantic towards NW Britain on Tuesday. So after rain in the NW this morning makes it's way across the UK today and tonight a showery interlude follows tomorrow before a fast moving spell of rain crosses all areas tomorrow night and Tuesday morning leaving a couple of blustery and showery days towards midweek with fresher temperatures. GFS then shows a new Low cross into the UK later in the week and take a turn SE across the near Continent next weekend. This ushers in colder weather following a wet end to the working week. Showers will be wintry in the North and East before a ridge moves across from the west or NW damping down any showers and leading to a cold and frosty period next Sunday. Thereafter a typical changeable regime develops under Westerly winds with some rain at times chiefly in the North. The South will see rather drier weather for longer with High pressure never far away from the South and temperatures generally will return closer to average though still rather chilly in the North between weather systems. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0 The GFS Ensembles show very changeable conditions today with Low pressure trending to come down from the NW in Week 2 maintaining a changeable theme with rain at times and snow over the hills, chiefly in the North. The South is shown by many members to have some reasonable drier interludes in accordance with High pressure close to the South or SW at times. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 UKMO closes today with next Saturday being a breezy and cold day under NW winds around Low pressure positioned over NW Germany. The weather will be generally showery with wintry showers over all high ground, dying out from the West later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021 GEM also introduces colder weather from the weekend. A wet end to the working week under Low pressure is replaced by North or NW winds and wintry showers over the weekend. Then further rather cold and unsettled weather with some snow in places occurs to start next week as another Low pressure slides SE across the UK and away to the SE by midweek. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 The GEM Ensembles though changeable do indicate a lot of dry weather to be found from next weekend on as High pressure is in much closer attendance at times, especially over the South. Some rain events are shown, chiefly in the North and while temperatures shouldn't get too low some frosty nights are likely at times. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cmc_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 NAVGEM today ends it's run with a slack and unstable North backing West flow next weekend with wintry showers in places before more places become dry by the start of the new week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=0&carte=0 ECM shows a cold and unsettled weekend with wintry showers especially towards the East and SE before things settle down early next week as a strong ridge builds NE over the South from the Azores with bright sunny days and frosty night. By the end of the run the North has become cloudier and milder under a slowly freshening SW flow. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=0&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0 The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean charts do show some support for the operational again this morning, albeit in a more diluted form. In general it points towards a trend for Low pressure to be held well to the NW with a much closer Azores High towards the UK than has been shown for a very long time. The net result would most likely be for any rain to cease across the South with most if not all restricted towards the Northwest. With winds shown to have a maritime influence but much less strong than of late there will likely be a lot of cloud floating about with temperatures returning to close to average values by the middle of next week. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Ensemble group still point towards the flow elevating to a more northern latitude across the Atlantic through week 2 supporting the better conditions possible for the UK after this week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary this morning it still looks strongly likely that there may be something a little more hopeful in the weather once we have got through what will be another unsettled, windy and often wet week to come. Over next weekend we will likely see a transition period involving a spell of colder NW or North winds with some wintry showers as Low pressure slides away SE over Europe. With the Jet Stream buckling strongly North over the Atlantic at that point pressure will rise strongly towards Southern Britain and while the North may see this as a rather transitory pause in the unsettled Atlantic regime Southern areas may hold on to it rather longer giving flood stricken areas much relief with several days if not longer of fine and benign weather with temperatures never desperately low much with an increased risk of night frosts which we haven't seen for so long.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 22nd 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show another week of unsettled weather to come with rain and strong winds at times alternating with spells of brighter weather with showers. Temperatures will stay largely near average throughout as winds look like continuing to blow from a Westerly point and continue to be strong at times. Low pressure will remain to the North or over the UK for much of the time but by the end of the week subtle changes in the synoptic pattern make for radical changes in the weather over the UK from next weekend. GFS shows the second half of it's run with a cold Northerly flow next weekend with wintry showers for many for a time. High pressure builds steadily behind this short period and allowing fine and sunny conditions by day and frosty nights at the start of week 2. Further out in the run a North/South split seems likely as Westerly winds bring rain at times over the North while Southern areas continue to see drier and brighter weather and little if any rain. UKMO shows Low pressure moving away East near Denmark next Friday with a cold Northerly flow with wintry showers and frosty nights looking likely next weekend. GEM tonight shows a brief northerly next weekend before the briefest of ridges crosses the UK from the West. Thereafter renewed Low pressure slips South over the UK and away to the South as pressure builds to the North. The net result of this would be rain and showers turning wintry in rather cold air as winds veer Easterly later. NAVGEM shows Low pressure to the East next weekend with sunny spells and wintry showers giving some snowfall over the hills as well as introducing frosts by night. ECM tonight shows much drier conditions developing next weekend and the following week following a short colder interlude under Northerly winds and wintry showers and frosty nights. High pressure builds steadily from the SW to form a large centre just to the SW at the end of the run with milder NW winds flowing around the High later. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still remain somewhat reluctant to follow the operational wholeheartedly but are at least slowly coming around to the idea of brighter and drier weather at times, most likely towards the South but not completely removing the risk of rain amost anywhere given that pressure remains much lower on the mean than that on the operational. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show a slow cooling of the pattern over the UK though at the same time there are strong signals of conditions becoming much drier, especially over the South later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream Forecast tonight indicates the flow moving North over the Atlantic following the demise of the seemingly endless procession of the flow close to the South of England for the next week or so. As a result of the move High pressure builds up from Southern latitudes towards the South of Britain. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the momentum for better weather continues to grow pace tonight as all models indicate varying degrees of a migration North or NE of High pressure down near the Azores. In the meantime there is still more rain and strong winds to get through this coming week before the weather perks up with a colder period of weather with wintry showers is the precursor to better conditions than of late, especially in the South where dry weather could for the first time for months become the most dominant factor of the weather. Temperatures after a colder interlude look like returning quickly to average by the end of week 2.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from the big 5 this morning being Saturday February 22nd 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a developing and strengthening SW flow across the UK today and tomorrow. Troughs of Low pressure will move quickly NE across Scotland today with heavy rain with the trailing cold front meandering only slowly SE across the UK later today, tomorrow and into Monday with copious heavy rain totals over the hills of the North and West. Then on Monday the cold front scoots away east over England to be followed by another complex Low pressure area and fronts develivering further rain then showers across the UK in westerly winds by midweek. It will be mild in the South and East until Tuesday when average temperatures return for all. GFS then shows midweek and the end of the week for that matter as very unsetteld with further rain and showers in cyclonic winds and average temperatures before things turn colder under a Northerly flow at the weekend with wintry showers towards the North and East and frosts at night generally. Through the remainder of the run changeable conditions persist but the weather will be much less wet than recently over the South in particular with the most frequent and heavy rainfall likely to the NW. With drier and finer weather in the South frost at night could be more common if skies stay clear. UKMO closes its run with the end of next week with Low pressure over the North Sea with a showery WNW flow across the UK with most of the showers in the North and West where they will become wintry over the hills by the weekend. GEM shows a colder and showery period next weekend with wintry showers almost anywhere but more especially over the north and East in NW or North winds allowing frosts to develop at night under increasingly clear skies at night by the end of the run. NAVGEM introduces colder weather too by next weekend but it shows unsettled weather persisting with rain at times or indeed snow over the hills as it turns colder with frost at night likely. ECM at last shows a drier spell developing from next weekend as an extension of the Azores High throws a strong ridge our way with any wintry showers fading ahead of dry and bright daytime conditions and frosts at night. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate less support for the operational than one would of liked with the maintained link of low pressure from the NW down across Britain to Europe which would maintain an unsettled and somewhat cool feel to things over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles indicate an improvement in conditions after next week especially across the South with the azores High exerting more influence over this part of the World with most of the rain from Atlantic systems likely across NW Britain through Week 2. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream supports an improvement longer term as at last the flow ridges strongly North over the Atlantic and up towards Iceland in Week 2 allowing the Azores High to play a bigger role in domination of the Southern North Atlantic and Western Europe. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=3 In Summary the signs of improvement shown over the last few days from certain outputs is gaining some momentum this morning (although I would of preferred the ECM Ensembles to of been more supportive) as a break in the flow of Atlantic Low pressure areas begins next weekend. The better weather may be preceded by a colder period where some wintry showers are possible as winds switch Northerly ahead of the developing ridge. there is better evidence that the ridge may hold firm rather longer across Southern areas at least and finally dislodge the Jet stream from it's Southern aspect and take it further north towards it's more common position North of the UK keeping Atlantic low pressure well North and keeping rain bearing fronts influential more towards the NW than recently. Temperatures never look like getting very low and daytimes could feel quite springlike especially with the higher elevation of sun now and the much lighter winds likely as a result.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show the current showery Westerly flow giving way over the next 24 hours to a stronger but milder SW flow and fronts moving into NW Britain through tomorrow. This then moves SE through tomorrow and Sunday with some quite large rainfall amounts over the hills of the North and West and later in the South and East late Sunday and into Monday. Then under a complex Low pressure system setting up over Northern Britain before midweek the weather will remain very unsettled and often wet and windy with SW gales accompanying persistent rain and more westerly gales with showers following on behind. GFS then ends the week on a colder note as deep Low pressure edges to the East of the UK with a cold wrap around of Northerly winds affecting the UK with wintry showers up and down the and before a drier day or two when frosts could occur as a ridge of High pressure crosses East. The rest of the run sees the weather remain changeable with further Atlantic fronts and Low pressure's with attendant rain and wind alternating with brighter showery conditions and also the occasional colder interlude under a ridge of High pressure. UKMO tonight ends the run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with an unstable Westerly flow with further showery rain at times and temperatures close to the seasonal average. GEM also shows very changeable conditions prevailing with rain or showers at times with some short colder interludes with wintry showers or dry weather with some night frosts. No sustained periods of dry weather look likely with the likelihood of further Low pressure and attendant rain never far behind. NAVGEM keeps a lot of unsettled weather going over the UK later next week with rain and showers turning wintry with time as winds turn NW towards next weekend. ECM shows a change to colder weather towards next weekend following an unsettled and windy, showery week as Low pressure slips away towards the East and turns winds into the North for a while with wintry showers. Then later still the weather settles down briefly as a ridge tumbles down over the UK with Westerly winds returning behind it. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure out to the NW with a link to Low pressure over Europe. As this morning there are some members which show a tenuous link of the Azores high to one over Eastern Europe while the likelihood for the UK is still rather unsettled weather with rain at times in a trough somewhere near the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show very changeable conditions persisting for virtually the entire run with rain and showers at times in fairly average temperatures. Late in the run a pattern change to something more settled under High pressure seems possible with rather lower temperatures and frosts at night as a result. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream reflects the ensemble data by transferring the Jet flow high over the Atlantic and Iceland late in week 2 allowing a strong ridge of High pressure to build across the UK at last. Until then it's position remains constant down to the South of the UK with several more depressions bringing copious rain and showers from UK based Low pressure through next week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the weather still shows some signs of change towards the end of next week and weekend. Whether it is a notable weather change or just a temporary phase remains to be seen and there is some evidence even at this range that the Atlantic will prove to strong. In the mean time it's business as usual for the next week or so with rain and showers for all in blustery winds before the aforementioned change could result in something rather drier and colder with frost at night.

Good morning. Here is the latest report from the midnight outputs from the NWP for today Friday February 21st 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show an unstable westerly flow through the day with showers, focused particularly on the West, some heavy with hail and thunder and snow on Northern hills. Through tonight and tomorrow the flow backs SW and strengthens but stabilizes somewhat across the South with a dry and windy day likely tomorrow while the NW become wet. Through Saturday night and Sunday this wet weather moves SE to reach most areas by Sunday evening clearing to blustery showers in the Northwest later. After a very showery and breezy day on Monday another vigorous Low moves in from the West with further rain, showers and strong winds through the day. GFS then shows the remainder of next week as unsettled and wet at times with strong winds as further Low pressure trundles across England from the west eventually bringing colder weather in with some sleet or snow over hills later quite a long way South for a time. Late in the run the trend back towards a broad Westerly flow across the UK occurs hence milder weather again and rain at times, this more especially in the North. UKMO today closes it's run with a weakening Low pressure over Scandinavia with a moderate NW flow across the UK with wintry showers towards the North and West with colder conditions for all. GEM today also shows a colder blip later next week as Low pressure pulls away from the SW allowing a brief Northerly flow before the flow backs Westerly and warms up again later with some rain creeping down from the NW. NAVGEM ends it's run with Low pressure out in the North Sea with a West then North flow bringing further rain and showers, turning into wintry showers from the North later. ECM also shows Low pressure crossing Southern Britain late next week with wind and rain in abundance but followed by a cold northerly flow next weekend with wintry showers and night frosts and temperatures much lower for a time. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a traditional late winter setup this morning of an Azores High pressure, an Eastern European cold winter High and Low pressure up to the NW. The result is a Westerly flow for the most part with some modules showing a tenuous link between the Azores and the Eastern European High allowing a drier and colder phase though not all support this as pressure remains relatively low over the UK with a broad trough nearby or just to the East of the UK continuing the risk of rain at times in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show a very spread set later in the run though overall conditions remain close to average made up from a split of milder and colder options. Rainfall amounts although quite frequently occurring through the run do not show any alarmist amounts and it shows signs of becoming drier later towards the South. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream while slacker at the moment looks like strengthening again next week before it ridges North over the Atlantic later lifting the UK into something possibly better weather wise as pressure builds to the South. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=192&carte=0&mode=3 In Summary most models still predict somewhat better conditions slowly developing as we move through the second week of this morning's output. This looks to be brought about by a ridging North of the Jet flow over the Atlantic which after allowing a deep Low to slip SE across the South late next week with yet more rain brings Northerly winds and colder weather and sets up a UK ridge with frost and wintry showers for a time before it looks then to slip into Europe and develops a more traditional NW/SE flow in the far reaches of the output as High pressure resides more appropriately closer to the South to maintain better conditions here at least. All this still seems a long way out and can all too easily change over the coming days and before we get there we have at least another week of often wet and windy or bright and showery conditions to get through.

Good evening everyone. Here is today's evening report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Thursday February 20th 2014. All models show that the UK lies under a showery Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This lasts through until Saturday when winds back SW and increase, bringing milder air across the UK. Heavy rain from advancing fronts will reach the NW later on Saturday with the strong winds increasing further across England and Wales on Sunday as the band of rain in the NW sinks SE across many areas by the end of the day. On Monday the weather will remain very unsettled according to most models with further windy and showery conditions likely and possibly some longer spells of rain too.. GFS then shows next week as wet and windy as further Low pressure crosses West to East over the UK with unwelcome heavy rain for many with showers in between and only short brighter intervals. In the lower resolution half of the run there is more unsettled weather to be endured but with a trend to drier conditions later as High pressure builds up close to Southern Britain later, possibly bringing rather mild weather too. UKMO also shows an unsettled beginning to next week as one Low crosses the UK on Tuesday, exiting East on Wednesday with the likelihood of further troughs later in the week to bring at least some more rain late in the week too. GEM shows Low pressure in control too through much of next week. In the first half mild SW winds will accompany the spells of rain but later as Low pressure moves out to the East of the UK there could be a period of colder weather with wintry showers in places on a Northerly breeze. NAVGEM remains very unsettled looking next week with the close of it's run indicating Westerly winds continuing well into the end of next week with rain at times in a fresh and blustery west or SW wind and generally near average temperatures. ECM tonight shows unsettled weather too with Low pressure giving rise to more appreciable rain at times and showers at other. As the axis of Low pressure shifts towards the east of the UK colder air will seep down across the UK in a NW flow with showers turning wintry later with snow over the hills for a time. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts suggest a period of cold zonality with Low pressure to the NW extending a trough SE across Britain and down over Europe. With winds in the West and NW with rain at times and temperatures close o average or a little below. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show uppers very close to the long term mean throughout tonight's output with a wide spread between the members of the pack towards the end of the run. Rainfall amounts are shown to be somewhat less than of late in the SE but remains a popular commodity throughout the run but with drier prospects shown for all at times through the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream remains fairly strong throughout the period spawning more Low pressure areas crossing over or near the UK. Late in the run the shift of the flow NE over Northern Britain could bring some drier conditions to the South and SE later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary it is in all senses of the word a re-run of this morning's output with any improvements shown restricted way out in the unreliable time spans of the model runs and that looking very tentative and speculative. In the meantime there will be plenty more wind and rain for us all to endure in temperatures close to average overall and winds quite strong at times without ever being especially so.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the midnight outputs of the NWP for today Thursday February 20th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a cold front crossing West to east over the UK this morning with a spell of mostly light rain quickly followed by brighter weather with squally showers becoming heavy in places and wintry over Northern hills. This pattern then lasts through tomorrow too before things dry out for Saturday as winds back SW and strengthen carrying milder air NE across the UK but with rain, heavy at times to the NW later. On Sunday a very windy and mild day seems likely with a front moving slowly SE extending the rain in the NW further SE to most areas by the end of the day, still heavy in places. The start of next week then indicates a vigorous WSW flow with further Low pressure disturbances bringing spells of rain and showers over the first days of the working week. GFS then shows that from midweek the weather remains very unsettled and often windy with further spells of rain and showers as Low pressure areas continue to track in from the Atlantic. It then shows a colder snap as a brief Northerly flow interrupts the wet and windy weather with wintry showers before after a few days it becomes unsettled and Atlantic based weather again with less cold air and rain at times to end the run. UKMO closes it's run with a bank of Low pressure across the Atlantic from a position NW of Britain continuing a broad WSW flow with fronts delivering rain and showers at times in average temperatures. GEM too shows an unsettled and windy period at the end of next week with it too showing a brief colder snap towards the end of it's run when wintry showers and frost at night could replace the wind and rain for a time. NAVGEM keeps the WSW flow going towards the end of next week with Low pressure to the NW. Further rain at times seem likely with temperatures close to average. ECM shows a vigorous Low pressure area meandering East across Southern Britain through the end of next week with much more unwanted rain as a result. It too as with other output introduces a colder North flow for a time and looks like at the end of it's run it is setting itself up for a period of colder zonality with Low pressure coming down from the NW with more rain and wintry showers in brisk winds and lower temperatures. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows that the colder zonality indicated by the operational is giving some credence as it too shows a Low pressure to the NW with a broad trough down over the UK to Europe with rain at times and less mild conditions overall. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show a continuation of non-descript output with average conditions overall made up from a mix of solutions none of which show anything remarkably cold or mild but some with more rain than others in an overall Atlantic patterned bias. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream continues to show signs of strengthening again next week as well as move a little further South once more before at the end of the run the flow drifts North in a more meaningful way with the consequences of such we await to see. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the pattern remains a very unsettled one with all models showing a good week or so of more Atlantic depressions and fronts, some rather potent with a lot of rain and strong winds for all a possibility for all. The changes indicated in previous output runs is a little muted this morning and it trends more towards a cold zonal spell of weather with chillier NW winds and showers on SE moving depressions possible from late next week. It should be noted that should this verify this will not necessarily mean drier weather across the UK but it could mean the incidence of snow on hills increases markedly, especially towards the North.

Good evening. Here is the latest report using the midday data from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to show a generally unsettled and windy picture and whilst the weather will be less severe than anything we have seen of late there will still be some unwelcome rainfall for flood stricken areas over the next 4-5 days with sunshine and showers in between a band of rain tomorrow and again later on Sunday. GFS then shows next week as continuing unsettled and windy with further rain at times, some heavy and persistent and with the chance of severe gales for a time. Temperatures will often be fairly mild but rather colder at times too with some wintry showers falling on the hills of the North at times. UKMO shows Low pressure to the North of the UK and a strong Westerly flow delivering rain, showers and strong winds to all of the UK at times in average temperatures. GEM also shows very unsettled weather with strong winds and heavy rain at times as deep Low pressure areas continue to dominate the UK weather, positioned close to Northern Scotland at first while later in the run Low pressure slips South with colder conditions with further rain at times and snow on hills. NAVGEM is also very unsettled looking with deep Low pressure crossing the UK with rain at times, some of which will be heavy and persistent with sunshine and showers in between with temperatures close to average. ECM tonight shows an unsettled period too but still likes to pull Low pressure away South later in the run allowing less wet and colder conditions to affect the UK later in the run as pressure rises under a ridge over the UK pushing the Jet flow North over the Atlantic. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate a UK trough at the end of the period with gently rising pressure. It doesn't however endorse the operational view of the strongly risen pressure over the UK intead keeping pressure quite low with a further surge of Low pressure looking likely from the NW in the days to follow. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles continue to show average temperatures most likely for the next two weeks with a reduction in rain amounts likely by the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream shows the flow stronger next week powering up some more powerful depressions again next week before late in the run the flow is shown to pull well North all the way to Iceland at the end of the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary there is still a lot of unsettled weather to come before any chance of better conditions arrives. Being that such improvements are all at arms length still there is a lot of wet and windy weather to come with Low pressure in total control to the North. Improvements when they do arrive are likely to come from an extension of the Azores High which could be accompanied by a pressure rise to the North too which if occurs could give an end at last to the procession of Atlantic Lows that has afflicted the UK now for nearly 3 months and bring some welcome relief to the UK. On the other hand being as it is so far out in the future currently it could all amount to nothing and we continue with the status quo.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight reports from the NWP for today Wednesday February 19th 2014 and featured morning and evening's on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a Westerly flow backing SW through the day and strengthening with a Low pressure system crossing the Atlantic towards the NW of Scotland and pushing troughs East across the UK with a spell of rain and drizzle for many by tonight and the start of tomorrow. Quite quickly bright and windy weather is shown to follow with showers, heavy and wintry over the North and West but with some drier spells across the East at times, this pattern then sustained until later on Saturday when showers die out and the weather becomes fine for a time Saturday night and Sunday. Through Sunday winds back SW and strengthen with gales in the NW and rain too later while Southern and eastern parts though windy and mild will stay largely dry. GFS then shows next week as windy and changeable with spells of rain and showers at times with the trend towards more settled weather by the end of next week and the end of the period as High pressure finally settles things down over the UK with sunny and bright days with fog and frost issues at night. UKMO shows a deep Low off Western Scotland with a strong Westerly flow over the UK carrying rain and showers across the UK, heaviest in the West. GEM also shows a strong Westerly flow towards the early and middle part of next week gradually transferring into a colder spell as winds swing NW and perhaps North by the end of next week with the prospect of further outbreaks of rain and perhaps wintry showers in places due to Low pressure over Denmark. NAVGEM closes it's run with a complex Low pressure system to the North and West of the UK with a cyclonic SW flow across britain. Troughs swinging NE in the flow will deliver rain, heavy at times in temperatures close to average. ECM shows unsettled weather prevailing overall with Low pressure either to the NW or over the UK later as Low pressure then disrupts over the British Isles with rain at times for all areas in average temperatures but possibly becoming somewhat chillier later. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still show a bias towards a UK trough in 9 and 10 Days time with a Low centre likely to become somewhere close to the North of the UK. So rain at times is the likely scenario still under a Westerly flow. It should be noted that pressure is higher than has been for a long time to the North of the UK so the operational solution is not without foundation. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles shows unsettled weather prevailing throughout the period as Low pressure remains in control. Temperatures remain close to average overall and there are signs of drier weather very late in the run. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow than for some time coming up soon before the flow strengthens again later, never releasing it's grip entirely on spawning Low pressure areas up to the NW with further rain at times. It does show a dip sharply SE to the SW of the UK late in the run indicative perhaps of pressure rising to the North and NE later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary today the weather looks like staying unsettled for the reliable future. All areas will see rain at times, heavy in places and accompanied by strong winds too, though a return to the very stormy conditions of recently remains unlikely thankfully. Later in the output there are still signs of a possible pattern change as Low pressure is hinted at disrupting and sliding SE across the UK allowing pressure to build to the North. What this means longer term for the UK and the weather in general remains to see how the output handles this possible pattern shift over the coming days or whether it dissolves it into yet another false dawn and reverts to Atlantic dominated form.

Good evening. Here is tonight's attempt to review the latest outputs of the NWP from their midday runs and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show one more day of relatively quiet weather with dry and bright conditions with light winds for many too as a weak Westerly flow gradually backs SW tomorrow. Over Wednesday night and Thursday cloud, wind and rain sweeps across from the SW with clearer and showery conditions following thereafter through the latter half of Thursday, Friday and the first half of Saturday with some heavy showers, especially in the West. Later on Saturday the showers die away as another weak ridge crosses East over the UK. Then later on Sunday strong SW winds and rain reaches the North and West spreading steadily SE to many areas by evening. GFS then shows next week and the remainder of it's run with very changeable and unsettled weather with spells of rain alternating with sunshine and showers. The heaviest rains would be over the North and West with the longest drier spells likely in the South and East. Temperatures would be largely close to average or slightly below in the North at times and slightly above over the South while winds could be strong almost anywhere at times. UKMO tonight shows a very unsettled start to next week with strong SW winds and spells of rain across the UK in temperatures close to average, all in association with deep Low pressure close to the NW of Britain. GEM tonight also shows an unsettled start to next week with mild SW winds and rain at times. Late in the week it may turn somewhat colder as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK with slacker winds but further rain at times and still some snow over Northern mountains. NAVGEM also shows a wet and windy start to next week in association with the same pattern of Low pressure close to NW Britain and strong but relatively mild SW winds. ECM also shows a wet and windy if mild start to next week with strong Southerly winds bringing a band of heavy rain East across the UK followed by squally WSW winds and showers. Later in the run Low pressure takes a more Southerly track down over the UK suggesting a possible pattern shift though in the short term Southern areas in particular will stay unsettled with rain at times and as it becomes colder some wintry precipitation could develop over the higher ground while the NW becomes dry under rising pressure. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts do not support the operational, even more so as you consider how much more it would of offset the mean charts had it more support from other members too. As it is one can assume that the majority of members continue to support a theme of changeable and unsettled weather with rain and showers at times under Low pressure close to or over Northern Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight continue to show largely unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures largely close to average. rainfall amounts are shown tor educe by the end of the output range. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream shows the weakening of the flow over the coming days before it re-strengthens next week, at least for a time. It's position remains in close proximity of the UK in it's oscillating fashion. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary tonight while there appears to be little overall change to the current pattern with rain and strong winds continuing to feature for quite a while, yet there are again signs of change later in the outputs. The split longer term solutions between GFS and ECM are all too apparent with GFS wanting pressure to rise towards the SE while ECM pulls Low pressure down over the UK and away to the South allowing pressure rises to the West and NW, a trend hinted at by GEM too. It's all too early to say if either solution is a feasible one at the range shown but it at least shows the models are sniffing the chance of something of a change in a couple of weeks with other greater and lesser options likely to be shown in the coming days under a less strong Jet flow.

Good morning folks. Here is today's morning look at the midnight outputs of the NWP as featured on my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue to show a well worn path of unsettled weather this morning. The next 5 days will see some of the best weather today and tomorrow as a slack Westerly flow delivers just scattered showers which some places may miss and stay dry although some of the rain my be heavy with hail and thunder locally. It will be quite mild away from Northern Scotland where yesterday's trough lingers with occasional rain and mountain snow. Later tomorrow and more especially on Thursday winds are shown by all models to increase and back SW with heavy rain sweeping East across the British Isles followed by showers in the West later. Then through Thursday and Friday a broad and strong Westerly flow will carry frequent and heavy showers across the UK, heavy and thundery in places and wintry over Northern hills. Over Saturday we will find winds decrease but showers continue with Sunday being the best day of the weekend as a weak and transient ridge crosses the UK before the next spell of wind and rain looks like returning early next week. GFS then shows next week as very unsettled, often mild and windy and wet at times but with a few drier spells in the SE and colder showery conditions at times later in a strong and colder Westerly wind. UKMO starts next week with Low pressure to the North of Scotland with Monday looking a mild and windy day with some rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West. GEM shows continuing unsettled weather next week and potentially stormy weather by the end of the run as repeated areas of Low pressure pummel the UK from off the Atlantic in relatively average temperatures for late February. NAVGEM too starts next week windy with rain in the North and West extending further SE with time in a strong and relatively mild SW flow. ECM this morning is equally unsettled with a potential nasty Low pressure system next Tuesday bringing gales and heavy rain before Low pressure disrupts over the UK late in the run with lighter but colder winds still bringing outbreaks of rain almost anywhere across the UK with the chance of snow over Northern hills. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts indicate that the ECM Ensemble pack suggest the UK will lie under low pressure somewhere near northern Scotland with a high risk of a trough down across the UK bringing further unsettled weather with rain or showers in continuing West and possibly NW winds later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show little change this morning with average temperatures likely to be sustained with Westerly winds and rain at times for all areas. the North does trend slightly lower temperatures from incursions of polar maritime air at times but these remain largely insignificant. No generally dry, settled or cold conditions are shown again this morning. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=0&carte=0 The Jet Stream still shows the flow of winds getting lighter across the Atlantic over the coming days before there is every sign of the flow increasing again later in more or less the same position as of present. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the weather remains far from settled with another two weeks at least of unsettled weather to come and no doubt some of the rain that falls as well as generally unwelcome and disruptive again in the flooded areas. Low pressure out to the NW continues to be the driving force and while severe gales and damaging winds aren't expected there is potential for some strong winds to give local problems at times. Temperatures will remain close to average with little significant frost over the period and very little snow away from Northern hills.

Good evening everyone. Here is tonight's report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAGEM and ECM plus ensemble data and Jet Stream report from that available, the report taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a weakening Low pressure moving into the West of the UK with the rain of today in the west making it's way Eastwards while becoming much lighter generally. A weak Westerly flow is then shown through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers and drier spells for many but with a lot of cloud. Later on Wednesday and Thursday winds will increase with cloud and rain spreading in from the west through Wednesday night and lasting into Thursday before a strong westerly flow brings showers or longer spells of rain across all areas through the period Thursday to Saturday with a ridge of High pressure moving quickly East over the UK later on Saturday with a drier interlude for all later in the day. GFS then shows Sunday as another day when SW winds will be increasing with cloud and rain spreading across from the West through the day. Through the rest of the run the weather remains very mobile in a strong and gusty SW flow with rain or showers at times and strong winds too always between South and West. UKMO shows a mild SW flow to close it's run next Monday with cloudy skies and rain or drizzle at times and with a cold front approaching from the West by Tuesday heavier rain will be on the horizon. GEM has very unsettled weather continuing with the same SW flow as UKMO at 144hrs with Low pressure to the North maintaining spells of rain and showers at times for all in brisk Westerly winds. NAVGEM has a mild SW flow too early next week with increasingly wet weather expected as pressure falls and troughs cross steadily NE over the UK with spells of rain and strong winds increasing with time. ECM tonight also has the SW'ly to start next week but the operational has higher pressure over Europe with the worst of the rain affecting the North and West while Southern and Eastern areas while seeing some rain have longer dry spells in between. The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts suggest a rather suspect operational tonight as the mean follows the pattern of the last week maintaining a preference to keep Low pressure close to the NW of the UK with SW winds carrying rain bearing fronts and showers overall areas at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of temperatures close to average with rain at times in mild SW winds. There remains little evidence of a major pattern shift anytime soon. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php The Jet Stream continues to show a generally weaker feed across the Atlantic and the UK this week before it strengthens again next week in a sine wave pattern. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary tonight there remains little overall change tonight in what we have been seeing over recent days. There doesn't look like being a repeat of the recent powerful storms though windy weather will still be likely with rain at times for all in generally mild conditions considering the time of year.

Good morning folks. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday February 17th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a weakening area of Low pressure crossing into the Uk from the West in attendance of a band of rain and drizzle through today and tonight. Following on behind is a spell of slack Westerly winds and occasional showers, some of which could be heavy especially tomorrow. By Thursday winds will increase from the West with bands of rain, heavy in places sweeping East and followed by colder and very blustery Westerly winds and squally showers with hail, thunder and sleet and snow all possible over the hills in the North. By Sunday a transient ridge of High pressure is shown to move across from the West with drier weather for a time with less wind and some sunshine to end the weekend. GFS then shows a continuation of Westerly winds, strong at times with spells of rain followed by colder and more showery weather in between. It will often be windy and relatively mild. UKMO shows next Sunday with a ridge of High pressure across the UK giving a dry and brighter period before the next Low looks like trundling across from the west to start next week. GEM has strong SW winds throughout the end of it's run with frequent troughs moving NE in the flow bringing rain and showers across at times in temperatures relatively mild for the time of year. NAVGEM also shows next Sunday's ridge quickly giving way to more cloud and rain as a strong SW flow sets up next week with deep Low pressure to the NW. ECM today also shows Low pressure to the NW with spells of rain and showers running quickly NE across the UK on occasion with temperatures well up to average overall. The ECM 9 and 10 Day mean Charts show Low pressure still up to the NW with SW winds for all and fronts delivering rain at times in generally mild conditions. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show sustained and unsettled weather under Atlantic domination of Westerly or SW winds. All areas are shown to receive rain at times with strong winds at times too and temeratures largely close to average. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php The Jet Stream shows an undulating pattern throughout with the axis involving the UK in it's movements with a strengthening of the flow again looking likely next week. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the pattern remains unchanged with further spells of rain and strong winds affecting all areas at times throughout the next few weeks. While the severe weather of late looks unlikely the additional rain will hamper and possibly worsen the flooding conditions still affecting some areas through the period. It should remain relatively mild over the UK throughout.

Good evening. Here is the report of the 12 noon outputs from NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014 taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a slowly filling Low moving in from the West tonight and tomorrow bringing rain across Western and Central areas through the night and lasting for much of tomorrow. The far East will stay dry but become cloudier later. By Tuesday the rain area weakens and decays as it crosses East on Tuesday with a slack Westerly shown with a lot of cloud and just a few showers through most of Tuesday and Wednesday. Later in the week the models do vary with a stronger SW flow looking likely as Low pressure takes control of the UK weather up to the NW. GFS then shows fronts crossing East late in the week with rain followed by showers which then leads on to another unsettled second half to it's operational output tonight with spells of rain and showers with some drier and brighter periods too at times, these chiefly in the SE. Temperatures will be generally close to average but perhaps a little on the mild side in the South at times while conversely the North could see temporarily chilly conditions at times. UKMO shows next weekend shows a window of drier weather on Saturday following the previous days of wind and rain. By Sunday it looks like it would become wet and windy for many again, especially towards the North and West. GEM has the UK bathed in fresh to strong SW winds with rain at times and temperatures perhaps on the mild side in the SE. Late in the run Low pressure crosses the heart of the UK at times with appreciable amounts of rain for many as the winds remain strong and from a Westerly point. NAVGEM has a mild SW flow late in it's run with Low pressure to the NW with relatively mild weather with bands of rain crossing NE in the flow at times. ECM is unsettled as well through next weekend and the start of the new week. However the weekend might not be that bad as a weak ridge dampens down this week's rain to give a dry and brighter spell lasting longest over the SE before all areas gradually become wet and windy again thereafter. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to indicate a strong trend for Low pressure to be close to NW Britain in 9 and 10 Days time with the resultant mild SW winds and often wet weather well established over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show a fairly average spell of weather with regard to temperatures and it does also look that another rather wet period will be on the cards following the quieter spell of the middle of this week. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow much weaker for the next week or so blowing steadily across the Atlantic in a somewhat undulating pattern before a marked strengthening of the flow is shown through Week 2 again close to Southern Britain. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=0&code=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary the weather pattern remains an unsettled one. While not the severe pattern we have seen of late there is still plenty of scope for more than enough rain in the areas that don't need it to give rise to further flooding issues and very little scope for any sustained dry and fine weather lasting for any length of time. Temperatures will remain pleasant enough for this time of February with very limited amounts of fog, frost, ice or snow.

Good morning. The start of a new week and is it the start of better weather. Here is this morning' report on the midnight releases of the NWP for today Sunday February 16th 2014. All models show a quieter spell of weather this week though still unsettled weather to be had by all with occasional rain but rather much less in the way of very strong winds. Low pressure areas are continuing to feature in the coming week's weather for all areas but they are shown to be either much weaker or further North than those of late restricting and changing the location for the heaviest rain and strong winds more towards the NW with some longer drier spells between the rain bands. GFS then show next weekend as breezy and showery ahead of a drier Sunday under a weak and transient ridge sliding East later. Then through Week 2 the trend shown is for further Low pressure moving East across or to the North of the UK bringing further rain and strong winds at times but also some colder and brighter spells with sunshine and showers more likely with a wintry flavour to some of the showers over the hills later. UKMO ends it's run opening next weekends weather with a windy and showery day on Saturday following more prolonged rainfall on Friday. It will be windy for many with temperatures near to average though it looks like it could be briefly rather chilly under the showery conditions of Saturday with snow on Northern hills within the showers. GEM shows an unsettled start to next weekend with some rain before a milder and increasingly strong SW flow under deep Low pressure over the Atlantic spreads wind and rain quickly NE across all areas with more following off and on through the first half of the week after next. NAVGEM also shows SW winds the main ingredient to the weather next weekend and beyond, strengthening somewhat. So this means a showery weekend will give way to some spells of more persistent rain at times in Week 2. ECM shows a chilly start to next weekend under a cool NW flow with scattered showers. This is followed by a dry and brighter 48 hour period as a ridge crosses over from the West in lighter winds and sunshine by day. Through Week 2 the trend is for Low pressure in the Atlantic to dig down across the Atlantic and bathing the UK in Southerly winds and periods of rain, quite copious at times in the West and accompanied by a return to milder air. The ECM Mean Charts shows that the likelihood of the UK being influenced by Low pressure out to the West and NW is high with SW carrying mild and sometimes wet weather across the UK, heaviest towards the west with any dry weather more likely towards the far east and SE. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles today show a very average set temperature wise with fairly wet weather for most after a couple of drier days in the SE early in the period indicative of further Low pressure dominated weather off the Atlantic. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The Jet Stream shows a weaker flow this week with slower tracking weather systems as a result. A sine wave pattern results in the flow with periods of good and bad weather through this week while Week 2 indicates a trend for the flow to strengthen again and become responsible for more coherent Low pressure areas to affect the UK again though hopefully not to the extent of recently. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=0&ech=0&mode=3&carte=0 In Summary today the weather remains generally unsettled with rain at times for all areas over the coming two weeks. It is important to note that in the context of recent standards this week's weather will be much better overall. especially in the South with less new disruption from both wind and rain as a result. In the latter end of the period the trend is shown for deep Low pressure areas to offer more in the way of coherent rainfall again with gales and severe gales in exposure and we will have to see how this trend develops over coming output to see whether that could take us back into worrying territory again. The one thing that isn't shown this morning is any prospect of particularly cold conditions and therefore not too much in the way of frost, ice and snow away from the Scottish hills.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Saturday February 15th 2014 and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show yesterday's storm now well away to the NE with a weak ridge crossing the UK tomorrow giving a dry night and day tomorrow with some welcome sunshine and light winds. Later tomorrow the weather deteriorates again as cloud and rain attached to a weaker Low pressure than of late spreads in from the West to give a cloudy and damp day in the West on Monday before the weather improves again on Tuesday and much of Wednesday as a weak ridge crosses from the West. GFS then shows a more vigorous Low pressure system crossing Southern Britain soon after midweek with wind and rain for all followed by a changeable remainder of the run with rain at times in winds from a mostly SW direction giving generally milder conditions later. UKMO looks menacing at the end of it's output tonight with a small but vigorous Low crossing Northern Britain with gales and heavy rain sweeping East across Britain with temperatures close to average before colder and showery weather follows as the Low pressure moves out into the North Sea. GEM shows a very windy and sometimes very wet period as winds between South and West carry spells of rain and showers across all areas through the latter period of the run. NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times in temperatures close to average overall. ECM tonight is also a little disturbing as after a brief respite next week we appear to be falling down the path of a return to deeply unsettled, windy and wet weather across all areas before the end of next weekend. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts show little change from this morning's with Low pressure in control of the UK weather with SW winds and spells of rain and showers, probably heaviest towards the West of the UK in temperatures largely close to average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles tonight show an unsettled period maintained throughout tonight's output. The temperatures will remain close to average for many but it could become rather mild in the South for a day or two while throughout there will be rain at times almost everywhere. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The Jet Stream Forecast indicates the flow will remain fairly consistent within it's current location while strengthening somewhat again after a lull next week. In Summary there appears to be growing trends shown between the outputs of the UK slipping back into a very unsettled and windy period with rain and strong winds featuring heavily again after a brief period of less unsettled conditions. With a fairly strong jet flow re-emerging again later next week the catalyst is their for some powerful depressions to affect the UK once more with the North and West and probably including the SW too for some more disruptive rainfall and severe gales.

Good evening. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKM, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday February 15th 2014. All models show the powerful storm of the last 24 hours now positioned near Eastern Scotland and through the weekend it will move away North and fill with winds and rain lessening to modest levels through the weekend to end up seeing most of the UK dry tomorrow. By Monday a much weaker Low weakens further but not quick enough to prevent a spell of rain moving across the UK from the west on Monday, heavy in places. Then as this moves away East Tuesday and Wednesday will be quiet enough days with sunshine and a lot of dry weather if rather chilly conditions before new troughs from Low pressure to the NW bring increasing winds and rain in from the West by the end of the day. GFS then shows the end of next week with changeable conditions prevailing with rain at times as troughs in association with Low pressure to the North and NW cross East in the flow, a pattern that persists for the remainder of the output this morning in temperatures close to average and possibly a little above for a time towards the SE. UKMO shows next Friday as a windy day with Low pressure close to Northern Scotland with strong Westerly flow with showers or spells of rain at times in temperatures close to average. GEM shows a trough crossing East later next week with a showery and chilly NW flow following for a time giving way to a strong and milder SW flow with rain at times, heaviest in the North and West. NAVGEM also shows an active cold front crossing East next weekend with a chilly and showery NW flow following with wintry showers, especially in the North. ECM today shows Low pressure to the North as Scotland similar to UKMO with a strong West flow bringing rain or showers at times to end next week. Thereafter Low pressure becomes a dominant feature across the North Atlantic with a strong SW flow with rain at times, heaviest towards the North and West. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning continue the pattern broadly resembling the operational so an Atlantic based Low pressure area is likely to be bathing the area in SW winds with rain at times, heaviest and windiest towards the NW while temperatures probably become a little milder later. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles today indicate a mobile Atlantic pattern persisting through the two weeks with rain at times for all areas in blustery WSW winds. Temperatures will for the most part never be far from average though it could become rather mild for a time in the SE early in the second half of the run. The Jet Stream still shows signs of weakening markedly in the next week with the resultant quieter period of weather affecting the UK. In week 2 it shows signs of strengthening again though not to the extent of recently. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ In Summary the weather still shows signs of becoming much less severe as we move through next week. All areas will see rain at times but some good dry periods in between and temperatures shouldn't create any problems either apart from occasional touches of frost here and there. Prolonged dry weather however looks unlikely with low pressure in control up to the NW firing troughs East or NE across the UK at times. Conditions for flooded areas will ease very slowly but the additional rain next week will slow any major improvements for some time yet.

65mph gusts here this evening. The highest i have recorded since moving to my current location and certainly from my last a few miles away that some 15 years. Sounds very angry out there and I for one am glad i'm indoors.

Hi everyone. From an exceptionally windy and wet West Country tonight here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Friday February 14th 2014. All models show an intense Low pressure area (958mbs) moving slowly Northeast then North over Eastern Scotland with a severe gale force Southerly wind over Southern England along with driving showers and more persistent rain maintained overnight. Winds are shown to veer Westerly by dawn with a slow improvement through tomorrow as the heavy showers also slowly clear from the west by evening. Sunday then shows a quiet day as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK before a band of showers and a more coherent band of rain march in late Sunday and Monday but with much less windy weather. Towards midweek it looks like being rather colder with scattered showers but pleasant enough in some sunshine and the much lighter winds. GFS then shows the end of next week as being very changeable with further rain at times with some brighter and drier interludes as well. This general theme is then shown to last through the remainder of the run with no settled weather likely for any length of time though thankfully without the powerful storm systems than we have endured of late. UKMO tonight shows a breezy end to next week as Low pressure to the NW steers trough East across the UK in blustery winds with rain at times followed by showers. Temperatures look generally close to normal at the end of next week but chillier in the North with some wintry showers. GEM shows troughs of Low pressure moving East into the UK with rain slowly crossing East with snow on hills in the North. A more definitive trend towards more mobile, unsettled weather looks likely with rain and showers continuing to affect the UK at times out to the end of the run. NAVGEM shows the end of next week as a chilly affair with NW winds, sunshine and showers with a ridge moving in from the West later damping down the showers later. ECM shows a trend towards a strong and mild SW flow across the UK towards the end of it's run with further unsettled weather with rain at times in temperatures above average later. The ECM Mean Charts tonight hardly show anything inspiring tonight as it looks like the UK will be governed by a large and complex Low pressure area to the West and NW of the Uk with strong SW winds with gales and spells of rain and showers for all in average temperatures and maybe slightly above in the SE at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles indicate a changeable spell of weather with rain at times and temperatures near to or somewhat above average for a time in an Atlantic dominated pattern. http://www.null/two/ensembles/ The Jet Stream is shown to become much weaker next week as it develops a sine wave pattern across the Atlantic and the UK. After this lighter phase the flow then is shown to strengthen again through the second half of the run. In Summary tonight the improvements shown in previous days remain tonight. However, it is important to note that while improvements will take place it remains very relative to current conditions and there would still be some heavy rain at times wwith some strong winds too, though without the very strongest winds recently seen. There will also be some longer drier spells between times to at least allow a slight improvement to flooded locations with time and temperatures should not prove to be an issue either.

Very gusty up here overlooking Radstock with horizontal rain squalls too at times lifting today's rain to 16mm and a recent gust of 57mph, stronger than the 55mph on the last storm. Gonna be hard to sleep tonight with the continuing squalls and winds veering into the West by morning, a nasty direction for us.

Good morning. Here is this morning's report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday February 14th 2014 and taken from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show another powerful depression moving NE towards Ireland today and on across the UK to lie to the East of Scotland tomorrow. heavy rain will move north and NE across the UK today, heavy at times and falling as snow in the North, especially over the hills. Severe gales will follow the rain as SE winds veer SW and West later with damaging gusts likely along the South and West coasts later accompanied by squally showers. Then with a showery day tomorrow Sunday is shown to be a quieter day with bright spells and scattered showers before all models show a new but less intense depression move in from the West on Monday with more rain for most but lighter winds. GFS then shows next week as very changeable with further Low pressure areas to the North with bands of rain and showers moving East over the UK interspersed by shorter drier periods at times in temperatures gradually recovering to average or somewhat above average levels in the South. A brief drier and very mild spell is shown in the South later in the run which could make things feel positively springlike for a time. UKMO today closes it's run towards the end of next week with Low pressure close to the NW with further SW winds and troughs crossing the UK with rain at times in average temperatures. GEM keeps things very mobile and largely unsettled through the latter stages of it's run with rain and showers never far away from any one place in temperatures close to average and fresh breezes from a Westerly point. NAVGEM is also unsettled looking in a weeks time with Low pressure to the NW driving bands of rain and showers East across the UK in blustery winds. ECM is also relatively unsettled too but does show some mild air on SW winds wafting over the South later with much of the rain from fronts close by affecting anywhere at times but always more prolific in the NW. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts which give a good indication of the weather type likely in 9 and 10 Days time indicate the UK is most likely to be still affected by Low pressure out to the West or NW with a relatively mild and unstable SW flow with occasional troughs bringing spells of rain and showers across all areas at times. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show a very turbulent spell of weather overall with many members maintaining Atlantic domination throughout with strong westerly winds with periods of rain and showers in temperatures near or somewhat above average. The Jet Stream Forecast is still very dominant in the way the weather affects the UK and after a weakening next week is shown to re-strengthen again through Week 2 near to or just South of the UK promoting more depressions and rainy weather for the UK. In Summary the emphasis still remains on largely unsettled weather for the next few weeks with further rain at times for all. However, it looks like next week will be less wet and certainly less stormy than this week gone with outbreaks of rain more sporadic and less widespread overall. Having said that there is still some worrying charts especially later in the period that could indicate a return to more very wet and windy conditions with the attendant problems that such charts would bring. What no model shows this morning is anything reliably dry under High pressure nor anything cold and wintry as temperatures look like being close to or above average in the South for at least a time next week.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Thursday February 13th 2014 and pasted across from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show another powerful depression streaming towards Ireland tonight and tomorrow with the current quiet and showery conditions being replaced tomorrow by heavy rain and hill snow in the North and severe SW gales in the South later tomorrow as the rain turns more showery. Through tomorrow night very stormy and wet weather will cover many areas before the Low moves away slowly to the North with squally showers and gale force winds easing through the day. On Sunday a quieter day develops with sunshine and just scattered showers before Monday shows a weaker depression carrying more cloud and rain in from the West to begin next week. GFS then shows generally changeable conditions with rain at times for the rest of the period with strong winds at times mostly from a direction between South and West. there will be some longer drier spells in between, especially in the South but nothing prolonged seems likely. Temperatures will be close to average overall. UKMO tonight shows the middle of next week with a slack and unstable Westerly flow across the UK. It would unlikely be completely dry so with this setup showers would be expected at least but with light winds and less widespread rain this could be described as an improvement on recent times. GEM shows a stronger Westerly flow on the Southern flank of Low pressure to the North. there would be showers or longer spells of rain falling as snow on the hills at times but with some drier intervals with shelter. NAVGEM shows a similar setup to UKMO at Day 6 moving forward to bring more Low pressure down from the NW with bands of rain followed by showers in temperatures close to average. ECM tonight shows a very changeable pattern with rain at times in breezy Westerly winds. Conditions overall though will be much improved on recent standards. The ECM Mean Charts show a worrying trend to more Low pressure to the West of Ireland sucking up warm SW winds from the Azores area and no doubt leading to spells of heavy rain, once more heaviest towards the South and West. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1681.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem1921.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Ensembles show show a bias towards keeping the UK under a Westerly flow, quite strong at times and with Low pressure remaining in proximity (though less intense than of late) there will continue to be rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average and maybe a little above in the South at times. The GFS Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow weakening somewhat next week and becoming more of a sine wave pattern which should give a rain then dry pattern of weather as each peak and trough passes west to east over the UK. It doesn't move far enough North through the period to push rain bearing systems far enough North to miss the UK. In Summary tonight the charts for next week and beyond will at any other time be classed as poor with unsettled weather prevailing. As it is they actually suggest an improvement on recent times with less in the way of substantial rain and much less wind issues too. In fact it looks a very ordinary period coming up once we pass the other side of the up and coming storm with occasional rain with some drier and brighter interludes in a generally Westerly wind providing temperatures close to average.

Just has a snow shower in Radstock. Some settling on cars on the high hills around the town with the settling level at around about 600feet so Mendips should be quite white. All academic though as it is just a shower and will be very transient. Nice to see none the less.