Gibby

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday January 20th 2014. All models show a similar sequence of events between now and the end of the weekend. Throughout this period several troughs will cross the UK from the NW bringing bands of rain which become slow moving in the East of the UK as they hit an European cold block. Behind the rain bands there will be a mix of clear or sunny intervals and showers which could be wintry on the hills. Some frost and/or fog can be expected between the rain bands as winds alternate between SW and NW while staying quite light. GFS then shows a cold and windy first few days of next week with wintry showers on NW winds. By midweek a brief ridge of High pressure descends down over the UK with frost and fog patches overnight. The rest of the run then sees changeable conditions with occasional rain bearing troughs moving East over Britain with drier and brighter spells in between. Temperatures later in the run would probably return to near average in the North and rather above at times in the South. The GFS Ensembles show a mean below the long term average tonight for much of the run and while not excessively low there is sufficiently low levels shown adequate enough to promote some higher ground snowfall at times with plenty of rain spread about over the run for all parts of the UK. UKMO has another deep Low pressure area South of Iceland next Monday with a strengthening SW wind across the UK with rain sweeping East through the day. GEM is very similar at Day 6 with a deep Low near Iceland firing strong Westerly winds and spells of rain followed by showers across the UK in temperatures close to average or a little below with little change in this overall setup even at Day 10. NAVGEM has an intense depression moving slowly East then South across England early next week with gale or severe gale force winds with prolonged rain and showers, turning to snow on hills especially over the North. Temperatures will be slightly below average accentuated by the strength of the wind. ECM has Low pressure areas slipping SE across the UK and North Sea from Iceland next week with areas of rain and strong winds and wintry showers in between. By Day 10 conditions across areas far away from the UK to the North and NE look like bringing a spell of wintry weather soon after the expiry of the run as synoptics look as though strong Northern blocking could be about to form. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show the pattern of High pressure strong to the SW and NE and Low to the NW and SE with the UK and North sea lying under a broad trough with largely unsettled and changeable conditions with rain at times and snow on hills most likely in 7-10 days with the UK still lying on the wrong side of the trough to promote UK wide cold. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows the trajectory of flow over the Atlantic and to the South of the UK looking like persisting over the next 10-14 days made more complex by a strengthening of the Jet stream speed next week. In Summary the weather is looking very confrontational tonight. On one hand we have a cold block over the Continent remaining in situ. On the other hand we have an active Atlantic fuelled even more next week by a strengthening Jet Stream. The result is a UK battleground where troughs slow and stall in their delivery of rain and showers. Later deep and parent depressions too are shown to slide SE up against the block and by the look of it the ECM operational offers something quite mouth watering beyond the end of it's run tonight. Model watching at the moment is very fascinating as we watch these two power horses of West vs East UK battle it out for supremacy over the coming weeks.

Good morning folks. Here is the report from how I see things developing over the coming few weeks using the data from the midnight outputs from the NWP and lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models follow a similar pattern of events through this week and the weekend. The UK lies in slack pressure currently with light winds, bright weather with clear or sunny intervals and frost and fog a feature over the next 24 hours. Tomorrow sees a new frontal system move slowly into the West and cross over to the East by Wednesday. Rain will move East slowly tomorrow and Wednesday before clearing in the West to showers and a cool NW breeze. All areas then see NW winds and scattered showers on Thursday before a ridge of High pressure crosses East late in the day and overnight with the return of frost and patchy fog. On Friday the ridge gives way slowly to a new frontal system with increasing SW winds and rain moving down from the NW through the day. The weekend is then shown by all models to remain changeable with further showers and some drier and brighter weather, this most likely on Sunday. GFS then shows deteriorating conditions next week as a deep Low slips SE across the UK with gale force winds and heavy rain with colder weather sinking down behind to reach Southern areas by midweek. Some snowfall is possible on high ground for a time almost anywhere for a time on the exit SE of the Low and in the NE winds. Towards the end of the run the weather reverts to a chilly NW air mass type with further Low pressure areas sliding SE down over the UK or just to the NE with further rain and showers with sleet or snow on the hills at times in rather windy conditions. The GFS Ensembles show very ordinary levels of temperature through the period with plenty of rain events still scattered about through the run from most members as the Atlantic continues to remain the source of our weather. The operational was one of the colder options later in the run but there is some other rather chillier options shown too but never desperately cold. UKMO closes it's run next Sunday with a ridge of High pressure moving across from the West clearing away the early wintry showers from the NE to a dry and bright if rather chilly day with increasing cloud from the NW late in the day as the next system approaches. GEM shows a much stronger NW flow next Sunday with plenty of showers, wintry in places under a strong NW wind. Towards the end of the run the weather remains often unsettled and windy with further rain and showers turning to snow in places as it, like GFS shows a brief NE flow across the UK. NAVGEM shows Atlantic systems based to the North of the UK continuing to influence the UK weather with further fronts crossing West to East over the UK with rain and showers at times in brisk winds and temperatures close to average. ECM today has Low pressure following next Sunday's ridge crossing ESE to the NE of Scotland and dragging blustery NW winds with rain followed by showers affecting the UK early next week with snow on hills in the North. This then sets the tome and pattern for further unsettled conditions at the end of the run as a Westerly flow continues to bring further unsettled weather later. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue to show it's ongoing theme of the most likely pattern in 10 days time. The favoured option looks to be a trough down the North Sea attached to low pressure to the NW. High pressure lies to the SW and NE with the UK likely to be just on the western fringe of the north sea trough indicative of West or NW winds and rain at times and some periods of cooler and showery weather with some wintry showers possible on the hills in temperatures generally near or just below average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow maintaining it's current pattern for some time yet before a strengthening of the flow spawns some deeper Low pressure areas next week. The overall position remains uncertain then with a mix of options taking it more NE towards Scandinavia while others maintain the flow much like it's current position. In Summary very changeable weather remains the most likely pattern for the weather over the UK in the next 10-14 days. It looks very likely that Low pressure areas will continue to feed down from the NW over the period with further rain and showers at times. There will be colder air across the other side of the North Sea with fronts becoming slow moving at times close to the East coast and any shift of these further West could bring Eastern areas at risk of some snow at times. In general though snow is more likely on polar maritime incursions from the NW between weather systems. While it is unlikely that disruptive rainfall is likely over the period in view that ground water levels are at saturation point any rain that falls over the period will continue to be unwelcome and there will certainly be some wet weather at times.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 19th 2014. All models show the coming week as another changeable one as further troughs move in from the West and NW through the week with a band of rain moving East on Tuesday replacing the quiet and chilly weather of tomorrow when sunny spells will be plentiful away from any persistent fog. By Wednesday the trough is shown to of made it's way across to Eastern Britain where it could stay wet and chilly for a while into the day. The West will become drier and brighter with scattered showers in a chilly NW breeze. Later in the week a ridge of High pressure moves across Britain lingering over the South into the start of the weekend before strengthening Westerly winds take over by Saturday. Throughout the week all models suggest nothing particularly wet or cold though frosts will be more frequent than of late both early and late in the week. GFS then shows the second half of the run with a notable Azores High sometimes displaced closer to the British Isles, certainly more than of late. This coupled with a strong Jet Stream powering over the Atlantic sets up a strong Westerly flow across Britain veering towards the NW on occasion. Rainfall will be much reduced to that of late, especially over the South while northern areas in particular will see some strong winds at times in temperatures never far from the seasonal average. The GFS Ensembles are another indifferent set, basically showing that there is a lot of mileage left in an Atlantic based pattern fuelled by an active Jet stream with rain at times for all throughout the run and temperatures close to or a little below the average at times. The operational was a warmer outlier regularly in the second half. UKMO tonight shows Low pressure near Iceland with strong Westerly breezes over the UK with a trough crossing East through Saturday with some rain for all, heaviest in the North. GEM shows changeable weather persisting over next weekend and start to the new week as more disturbances run SE across the UK bringing rain followed by clearer and more showery weather at the same time as it becomes a little colder through the showery phases. NAVGEM closes it's run with Low pressure to the North of the UK with a broad flow of Westerly winds with troughs blowing through in the breeze delivering rain at times in average temperatures. ECM tonight shows much stronger winds from next weekend with strong Westerly winds with rain at times with Low pressure areas passing across to the North. Some clearer and slightly colder more showery interludes are likely at times too with some sunshine but nothing remotely wintry. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight show no overall change in the pattern with the main features likely to be present in 9 and 10 days time according to their ensembles is a strong Azores High, Low pressure near Iceland and a trough slow moving down the North Sea. High pressure is shown still over NE Europe though and no doubt some members promote this in a bigger way but the bias still remains for a West or NW flow most likely over the UK with rain or showers at times in temperatures near to or a little below average. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream remains very active and will become more so later in the period as the current position of the flow to the South of the UK changes to a more direct passage Eastwards over the UK to Europe as the block to the NE declines. In Summary the pattern remains a very Atlantic driven show with a strengthening of the Jet Stream developing deeper depressions to the North of the UK from next weekend and dragging stronger Westerly winds across the UK with rain at times. However, this becomes much more focused on the North rather than the South with little in the way of disruption caused by any weather events over the coming two weeks as the charts stand tonight.

Good morning. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs of the NWP for today Sunday January 19th 2014 lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show the coming week as maintaining changeable conditions throughout for all. Today sees Low pressure out to the NW with slack pressure gradients across the UK giving rise to a lot of dry and bright weather with coastal showers in the West and South and frost and fog patches tonight. A similar pattern is shown for tomorrow so similar conditions can be expected. On Tuesday there will be a new trough moving slowly East off the Atlantic bringing rain, heavy in places and a freshening SSW wind. Wednesday too will see the rain still affecting the East of the UK while the West sees brighter and drier conditions with scattered showers as winds swing NW and pressure rises. Thursday sees a quiet day over the UK with slack conditions again with dry and bright weather for many with coastal showers in the West and rather cloudier conditions from an old decaying front in the East. On Friday an early frost will be followed by a dry and bright day as a ridge is shown crossing the UK from the West before increasing SW winds and cloud move in from the West at the start of the weekend with rain and freshening winds into Northern and western areas in particular to start next weekend. GFS follows this period with little overall change for the rest of the run with spells of rain and brighter weather with showers alternating over the period. Low pressure will remain rampant crossing the Atlantic to the North of the UK and down over Europe. Temperatures as a result will remain close to average for all. The GFS Ensembles today show no chance of anything cold at all as the majority of members show a rampant Atlantic with a strong Westerly wind blowing over the Atlantic with rain and showers carried across all areas at times with drier and brighter spells too at times, these especially in the South due to many members showing a strong Azores Anticyclone ridging towards the UK at times. UKMO today finds the end of it's run with a deep Low pressure up near Iceland sending a strong WSW flow into the UK following Friday's ridge with increasing cloud and rain spreading East over the UK next weekend. GEM today maintains a UK based trough driven by further Low pressure feeding in off the Atlantic with further rain at times for all in temperatures near to or a fraction below average. NAVGEM shows an Atlantic flow next weekend and start to the new week with rain at times as troughs move East off the Atlantic in a Westerly flow. ECM today also shows an Atlantic based weather pattern next weekend and the first half of the new week with West or NW winds sending alternating spells of rain and showers across the UK in a blustery wind at times. Temperatures will remain close to average but a little below at times in any NW feed following the exit of cold fronts. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show Low pressure biased to be positioned to the North and NW of Britain and a strong Azores High with a West or NW feed bringing further rain at times for most in temperatures unlikely to be problematic for anywhere in the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to move across the Atlantic west of the UK and then turns South across Southern Europe via Spain. After this week it now looks the predicted strengthening will still take place steering it further East across the UK and then South over Europe as the High over NE Europe declines. It is then shown to move NE across the UK on a much more northerly track and on into Scandinavia by the end of the run this morning. In Summary today the pattern remains very Atlantic based with little to suggest any shift towards anything wintry within the forecast period of the runs. All models show this week with a changeable pattern with alternating spells of rain mixed with drier and chillier spells with some night frost at times as Low pressure continues to move into the UK while weakening. High pressure will lie closer to the SW than for some time and this at long last will start to reduce and alleviate the surface flooding issues in the SW with time. In the second half of the run the weather will become rather windier with a longer Westerly fetch while maintaining the pattern of rain at times mixed with drier and brighter spells. Temperatures will remain close to average throughout with little or no chance of anything wintry.

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP for today Saturday January 18th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a Low pressure area out to the NW of Britain. A frontal trough will swing East across Britain tonight carrying outbreaks of rain as it goes. This will be followed with very slack conditions for all areas by tomorrow and with clear skies later frost and fog is likely with sunny spells by day and coastal showers in the West and SW. After more slack pressure on Monday freshening winds on Tuesday will develop from the SW as a new frontal systems approaches from the West with rain spreading East through the day. The front stalls and weakens over the East on Wednesday as pressure rises across it reducing the rain to drizzle through the day. On Thursday the weather looks bright and chilly as a ridge of High pressure moves slowly down over the UK from the NW. GFS tonight shows changeable conditions for the rest of it's run tonight as further Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK then South towards NW Europe pulling winds into the North for a time with wintry showers before Atlantic Westerlies return at the end with some more rain at times but some reasonable dry periods in the South. The GFS Ensembles tonight have drifted back into a chillier mode in the South for the second half of the run. The weather will remain very changeable with rain at times but most members show some drier spells too with breezy conditions as well at times. UKMO next Thursday shows a ridge moving away East and allowing another trough of Low pressure to spill back in off the Atlantic later next week with rain spreading East late in the day along with freshening SW winds. GEM tonight shows less wet weather but still very changeable conditions later next week and into next weekend and beyond. The Azores High plays a more direct effect on the weather at least in the South with rain at times, heaviest in the NW while SE Britain sees longer drier periods between shorter rainier spells. Temperatures are shown to present no real problems over the period. NAVGEM also shows another trough bringing rain late next week along with a blustery West then NW wind as the rain turns to showers ahead of drier weather under a ridge by next Sunday. ECM tonight shows rainfall in the South becoming a much less troublesome feature late next week as the proximity of High pressure to the SW becomes more influential. However, troughs continue to flow down from the NW with at least some rainfall for all areas but with some drier spells too with temperatures a little below average overall and rather more than just a little below average with the chance of some wintry showers of sleet or snow in places by the end of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Charts continue to show the most likely pattern in 10 days time of Low pressure to the NW and a very strong Azores High. Signs of pressure rises to the North remain quite limited from these charts and I would suggest the operational chart will be an exaggerated version of a potential cold outcome with plenty of members still showing an unstable Atlantic flow from the West or NW over Britain. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow following a similar course to that of recently with the main difference being an increase in it's strength later pushing it across Britain and then onto Europe. In Summary tonight there is some sign of something perhaps less wet for Southern areas from later next week as the Azores High becomes more of a feature to the SW of the UK. With NW winds at times the chances of anything overly mild or cold remains quite small but the worst of the rain from the troughs continuing to afflict all areas at times will be more towards the NW or North with some decent drier spells in the South. While there is still a slim chance of a slightly colder slot of weather there is still no evidence within the time frame of anything major expected to affect the UK.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 18th 2014 raised from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm. All models show the changeable pattern continuing. Through today a frontal system lies over northern and Western Britain with outbreaks of rain on a Southerly breeze. This front moves East later with a slack area of winds moving in tonight and tomorrow with a lot of dry weather over the Uk but with some shwers near western coasts. A similar day on Monday is followed by freshening Southerly winds as another trough moves slowly East with another spell of rain moves slowly East across the UK on Tuesday and Wednesday becoming slow moving in the East before dying out. Then after midweek pressure rises strongly over the UK with a day or perhaps two of dry and bright weather with some frost and fog by night. GFS then shows a quick return of changeable and windy weather with rain at times as Low pressure once more drives SE down across the UK with strong winds at times. In addition it could become rather colder with time with more of the precipitation falling as sleet or snow at times later in the period as winds turn towards the NE temporarily. The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary set overall with rain at times across the UK with temperatures never more than a degree or so from the seasonal average in blustery conditions at times. The group show no real sign of significant cold conditions within this period with the operational run being on the colder side of the pack later. UKMO today shows a ridge of High pressure extending NE across Southern Britain with next Thursday dry and bright in the South. In the North a milder SW flow will bring cloud and rain in off the Atlantic later in the day. GEM keeps a strong Azores High pressure area late in it's run and although each ridge that crosses the UK from it is relatively short-lived with rain at times, amounts of rain would be considerably less than many Southern areas have seen of late with temperatures alternating between milder spells and chillier spells as each ridge passes. NAVGEM is not dissimilar to GEM as far as it goes with the ridge after midweek followed by a rain bearing troughs sinking SE across the UK by next weekend. ECM shows a quick change back to unsettled and windy weather later next week and weekend as Low pressure follows the midweek ridge down over the UK with rain and strong winds followed by showers before a rinse and repeat pattern occurs again towards the end of the run. The last frame of the run shows Northern blocking setting up strongly giving our best chance yet of breaking out of the wet spell as cold Easterly winds look very likely to take hold. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts still don't support the evolution of the operational indicating there is still a majority of mebers wanting to keep Low pressure to the NW with troughing lying SE down the UK or the North sea meaning further rain at times for the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow maintained as it is for the time being maintained South of the UK having crossed the Atlantic before turning South to our West. The flow strengthens later and with this extra invigoration there could be more powerful depressions developing increasing the threat of wind to add to the continuing rain risk. In Summary today the weather looks well agreed upon as we move towards the midweek period with changeable conditions continuing with rain at times and some drier spells too especially after midweek when all models support a drier interlude as the Azores High ridges in. Later developments over the Arctic shown by some models push deep depressions SE across the UK later with further wet and windy weather for all. Then 'as' and 'if' these depressions are allowed to track South of the UK the Arctic High could push South and set up our only real chance of yet this winter (imo) of cold and possibly wintry conditions to start February. The problem being as of yet it is not well supported by either of the ensemble data I have access too from GFS or ECM.

Good evening. Here is tonight's report on the midday outputs from the NWP for today Friday January 17th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure continuing to dominate the weather over the UK for the next week with the general trend for Low pressure areas to slip SE across the UK while filling up early in the period with changeable conditions for all areas. Later next week a new Low slips SE down over the UK too with further rain and showers for all but with an increase of the Westerly wind to accompany the rain. GFS then shows the Azores High ridging towards Southern Britain for a time late next week damping down the rain for a time in the South while some continues across the North. Later in the run the Low pressure areas to the North dig deeper down over Britain again with gales and heavy rain giving way to cold and showery conditions with snow showers in places late in the run as winds swing Northerly, this due to the Low pressure area responsible moving SE over the UK and Europe to be followed by a brief ridge of High pressure by Day 15. The GFS Ensembles tonight show a continuation of generally unsettled weather with rain or showers at times. For much of the time temperatures will remain close to average though a slow dip below average may be apparent for some Southern areas late in the run. It may also prove rather windy at times to next week. UKMO shows a quiet day next Thursday as pressure has become slack over the UK as Low pressure clears the SE and High pressure tries to ridge NE over Britain. The likely result will be a rather cold day with a lot of cloud and a little rain in the East, possibly falling as sleet and snow over the hills of the NE. GEM tonight shows a very unsettled period from the end of next week as deep Low pressure areas either pass East to the North of the UK or down across the Nation giving rise to strong winds and rain at times throughout. Some wintry showers would be possible in the colder NW flow later, especially in the North. NAVGEM shows a more sedate period late next week and weekend but still largely unsettled with some rain at times as troughs pass East over all areas over the period. ECM also continues the unsettled mode throughout the latter stages of it's run with increasingly deep depressions coming back from the NW across Britain with gale or severe gale force winds from the West likely with spells of rain followed by wintry showers the most likely weather pattern by 10 days time with temperatures near to or somewhat below average. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts tonight signify that Low pressure close to Northern Scotland is the bias of opinion between the ensemble members of ECM tonight keeping unsettled and breezy weather going for all areas at this juncture in average temperatures. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream Forecast shows the flow maintaining it's current position under moderate strength over the next 4-5 days. Later next week the flow strengthens markedly which may promote some strong depressions once again to the North of Britain leaving the UK in some strong surface wind strengths too. In Summary the weather remains quite unsettled over the next few weeks. In the first week the weather will see occasional rainfall some of which will be heavy and slow moving as fronts and sliding depressions stall over the UK before losing their identity in situ. There could be some drier spells in places when frost patches and fog become possible as well as some snow on Northern hills at times. Through Week 2 the Jet Stream is strongly supported to strengthen markedly spinning up some more powerful depressions close to the Northern Isles whipping up severe Westerly gales at times and rain bands followed by showers, some wintry the favoured sequence of events. Overall temperatures will stay close to average or somewhat below at times through the whole period.

Good morning folks. Here is my report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 17th 2014. All models show Low pressure to the NW of the UK> Winds will be slack over today and the weekend with sunny spells and showers today with coastal areas most at risk from these. Tonight and tomorrow sees a front over the SE later today move West and North across the UK becoming lodged South to north across SW England and Wales tomorrow with heavy rain at times here before the front moves bodily East tomorrow evening to return a mix of sunshine and showers again on Sunday, these chiefly in the SW. Monday then sees a brighter day and many places may see a dry day while the West continues the risk of some showers. Temperatures will remain close to average through the period. GFS then shows that from Tuesday unsettled weather moves back in from the Atlantic with spells of rain and showers blowing through on the Westerly winds which will become quite brisk at times. Then through the latter stages of this morning's run the weather remains very unsettled and windy as deep Low pressure revolves around the UK continuing to feed areas of rain and showers with snow on Northern hills at times in temperatures near to or a little below average, especially in the North. The GFS Ensembles show complete domination by Atlantic pressure systems through the output this morning with nearly all members offering only short drier spells between the rain bands with little or no sign of any dry and cold weather in sight. UKMO today on Thursday shows Low pressure to the North of the Uk with a blustery Westerly wind carrying a trough East across the UK through the day bringing yet more rain. Temperatures would be close to average. GEM today keeps Low pressure across the UK as it fills later in the week. Pressure remains higher on this model to the North and NE later feeding some colder air into the mix but away from the hills outbreaks of rain rather than snow would be likely. NAVGEM keeps Low pressure feeding down over the UK from the NW later next week with further rain at times and perhaps some snow on Northern hills at times, especially towards the far NE. ECM shows rising pressure from the SW for a time later next week reducing rainfall amounts in the South for a time while maintaining relatively mild and breezy Westerly winds. Later in the run and over next weekend deep Low pressure will slip back down from the North with outbreaks of rain and showers in strong winds for all to end the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows the trend for renewed Low pressure to become established just to the North of the UK with unstable Westerly winds and rain at times for all the most likely outcome for all from ECM Ensembles in 10 Days time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows little signs of significant change in it's trajectory and movements over the next few weeks as far as the UK is concerned. there will be occasional shifting of lifting the flow over the UK at times from a position to the South for much of the time feeding off the Atlantic. In Summary the weather is continuing to look very Atlantic based over the next few weeks with rain at times from Low pressure areas drifting SE over the UK at first and then perhaps Low pressure maintaining a more Northerly position close to Scotland later next week. These synoptic changes will make little difference to us at the surface as we will all continue to see rain at times in temperatures close to average though some colder air could feed into Northern areas at times firstly from the East and later from the NW but overall there remains little or no chance of anything significantly wintry indicated from any output this morning.

I think it might rain here soon.. http://90.222.77.27:8002/

Good morning everyone. Here is the first of my twice daily reports on the current state of the outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 16th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show the UK under the influence of a large depression to the west of the UK with a showery SSW flow across the UK, not very strong but providing the catalyst for a lot of heavy showers across Southern and Western Britain with far fewer elsewhere. This pattern remains in place for the next 24-36 hours with the showers if anything becoming more frequent and widespread as Low pressure draws into UK air space. On Saturday a new Low will push rain North across the UK and this could prove quite persistent and heavy in places before clearing to showers on Sunday. By Monday pressure will have slackened across the UK and while still quite Low with light winds the day could well end up dry for many and rather chilly with some frost and freezing fog patches possible in places. By Tuesday the next Low pressure will be knocking on the door of western Britain with strengthening winds and rain by Tuesday. GFS shows this Low moving ESE over the North sea and Europe turning winds towards the North for a time soon after midweek with a drier period developing with night frosts next weekend. this doesn't last long though before a rinse and repeat pattern of what's gone before develops with some wintry showers on the Western flank of the exiting Low in generally cold conditions at the end of the run before winds swing Easterly at the end of the run giving some sleet or snow over Southern and Eastern Britain. The GFS Ensembles show the pattern that we currently have seen of late generally maintained with the added conditions of somewhat colder conditions at times as Low pressure cross ESE down the north Sea giving the UK something of a swipe at colder NW winds on the rear f departing depressions. The operationals wintry end to it's run was not well supported with most members keeping a much more moderate reduction in overall temperatures values and with the incidence of rain still all too frequent. UKMO this morning closes it's morning run next Wednesday with a shallow Low pressure near SW England moving SE. An area of rain will be lying across the UK in association with this and this could well result in some snowfall in the North and East as colder air is drawn in from Europe undercutting the feature. GEM shows Low pressure slipping down over the UK later next week as a much deeper feature than UKMO and as a result bringing yet another spell of wind and rain followed by showers across all districts with little respite beyond a window of drier weather shown on Day 10. NAVGEM is broadly similar in format to GEM with a belt of Low pressure down the North Sea at the end of the run with a chilly and showery NW feed across the UK. ECM follows the general trend of this new Low pressure feeding SE later next week with rain and showers in tow for all before it clears away to the SE allowing a temporary cold incursion of air on a ridge of High pressure to make it's presence felt later with frost and fog patches before further Atlantic fronts move in again from the NW by Day 10. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Charts this morning reveal the status-quo persists from earlier versions of these charts in that the favoured option between members of it's ensemble group show a trough down across the North sea with the UK lying in a West or NW flow between Low pressure to the NW and High over the Azores. One can deduce from this that the current changeable pattern persists over the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream forecast this morning shows the flow largely maintaining it's current pattern for the reliable future with longer term indications suggesting no meaningful change other than a short migration NE of the flow further across Northern Britain for a time later next week before resetting back further South later. In Summary this morning we have little overall change in the pattern of unsettled weather under a UK trough. With cold air to the NE we have to be mindful of what could happen if the synoptic pattern falls our way and UKMO shows some degree of that this morning giving an interesting chart for next Wednesday which with a few tweaks could be a good chart for coldies. however, the general consensus remains that the underlying feeling remains for the cold to stay the other side of the North Sea while we continue to suffer from troughs of Low pressure running in off the Atlantic with rain and showers and occasional hill snow largely in the North at times with short transitory colder interludes with frost.

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday January 15th 2014. All models show Low pressure in control of the weather over the UK from now until the end of the weekend as it's position moves in close to the United Kingdom reinforced by secondary features moving within it's circulation at times. After today's mildness and drizzly rain the weather will turn a little cooler and more showery with the concentration of showers close to the windward exposures of the South and West of Britain with some lengthy drier and brighter spells at times in the NE. By Saturday a new area of Low pressure moving North over the UK could give some more significant rainfall and flooding issues in places before a return to more showery weather looks likely over Sunday. GFS shows next week with the trend towards windier conditions developing later in the week with further showers and outbreaks of rain as Low pressure moves ESE across the far North and sends troughs quickly East across the UK with temperatures remaining very close to average. The GFS Ensembles shows no change in the overall pattern with just a short relaxation in precipitation amounts early next week. Temperatures remain very respectable given the time of year but with little respite for those flood stricken areas looking likely. UKMO tonight shows yet another Low pressure area moving ESE into Northern Ireland with fresh Westerly winds to the South bringing rain and showers across the UK yet again next Tuesday with the real prospect shown by the Day 6 chart of another quite wet and windy week being likely throughout next week too. GEM shows Low pressure sinking slowly SE across the UK next week, filling slowly but taking until the very end of the run to bring any significant improvements to the wet and windy period for much of next week as a weak High pressure ridge topples down over the UK by next weekend. NAVGEM also shows UK based Low pressure into the middle of next week with further rain and showers for all in average temperatures. ECM is very changeable again tonight with Low pressure areas continuing to dominate conditions over the UK as they trundle down from the WNW over Northern Britain. A few drier intervals are shown on the exit of next weeks depression but the pattern shown suggests that any improvements late in the run look very short-lived. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart shows the most likely scenario in 9 or 10 days time with the UK biased towards an increasingly mobile Westerly flow between a classic UK winter pattern of High pressure over the Azores and Low pressure near Iceland. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream is shown to continue crossing the Atlantic before turning South to North Africa then turning East over Europe. This general theme will continue into next week before the flow crosses the Atlantic and the UK before moving on through Europe later next week. This will probably serve to encourage more mobility of Low pressure systems and fronts through Britain rather than stalling them over us. In Summary tonight at the risk of sounding like a broken record things remain very unsettled with rain or showers at times over the UK. Winds will become rather more blustery as we move through next week from a Westerly point so once more not desperately cold. There seems little evidence of yet of any major influence of the Azores High drying things out anytime soon or for that matter any push from the East so for the time being it's more of the same I'm afraid with rain at times continuing to be the biggest feature of the upcoming period.

Good morning. Here is the report on this morning's output of the NWP for today Wednesday January 15th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure over the Atlantic gradually drifting in closer to the UK over the next day or two. As a result today's mild and damp conditions will change to somewhat cooler and more showery conditions from the West from later today. The showers will be heavy in places and focused most on the South and west of the UK with some Northern and Eastern areas seeing a fair amount of dry weather. By Saturday Low pressure remains close to the West of the UK with a new frontal feature moving NNE across the UK with further heavy rain likely over England and parts of Wales with Sunday too seeing further unsettled weather for all in light winds and temperatures near to or just a little below average as Low pressure fills and slides SE. GFS then shows new Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of the UK through next week, each dragging troughs East across Britain continuing to bring rain and showers at times in basically Westerly winds with temperatures quite close to the seasonal average. The GFS Ensembles show little evidence of any significant change in the unsettled pattern this morning under temperatures largely close to average. There may be some cooler and blustery intervals in showery NW winds but no substantial cold events look likely. UKMO shows a weak ridge across the UK with the UK itself in a 'col' type situation where almost anything goes but the most likely event will see a rather cold and dry interlude with a night frost but a dry bright day perhaps with a shower, wintry on hills. GEM shows the unsettled weather giving way from the North to a colder Easterly flow next week with some wintry showers in the East and South with frost developing at night especially in the clearer North. NAVGEM shows Low pressure up to the NW of the UK by midweek with a broad Westerly flow. The unsettled weather of early in the week will be superseded by the effects of fresher Atlantic winds and further rain bearing troughs crossing East over all areas as Low pressure maintains the upper hand as far as the UK is concerned. ECM this morning keeps very unsettled weather going with deep Low pressure areas continuing to affect all areas of the UK throughout the week with spells of rain, heavy at times accompanied by strong Westerly winds at times too. On the plus side temperatures do not look like being far from the January average. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts today show a bias favouring a trough down the North Sea connected to Low pressure most likely towards the NW of the UK. This as of the last few outputs closes the door on any cold from the East and most likely maintains the unsettled theme across the UK with rain at times in average temperatures and Westerly winds. The Jet Stream continues to blow across the Atlantic, turning Southeast to the South of the UK and then over Southern Europe. This pattern is maintained into the start of next week. Later next week the flow looks like strengthening again and piling East across the Atlantic and across the UK. In Summary the weather remains very unsettled over the next two weeks with Low pressure never straying far from the UK shores throughout the period. The thrust of energy from these Lows is SE'wards for the next 5-6 days before the thrust then looks more East to the North of Scotland next week with an increase of Westerly winds likely at times, giving rise to somewhat more mobility allowing systems to pass through more quickly with time though still with only short drier spells in between. There is nothing again to suggest any change to colder conditions of note anytime soon from this morning's output with the glimmer of hope from the GEM operational looking the only straw to clutch this morning.

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for tonight Tuesday January 14th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a warm front crossing the UK as I type with rain spilling East across the UK in rapidly turning milder weather. The South then becomes drizzly later in the night and at first tomorrow while the North sees the early night rain and hill snow continue throughout with any snow turning back to rain. Tomorrow shows a cold front moving East over the UK with showery rain as it goes clearing to showers in the West later. The rest of the week and weekend is typified by the close proximity of Low pressure with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places with some drier and brighter spells as well most likely towards the East and NE. GFS then shows next week with colder weather making it's way across the UK from the East briefly with the threat of some wintry showers for a time as Low pressure fills it's way SE over France. It isn't long before the pattern reverts to form with Atlantic wind and rain on fronts crossing East in association with depressions to the North takes hold once more. Throughout the run apart from the brief colder interlude early next week temperatures will remain close to average with a rather chilly and strong breeze at times. The GFS Ensembles reflect the operational run quite well tonight with unsettled and changeable weather expected for all areas through most of the time. A brief colder interlude is shown within the ensembles too early next week though most members that support this go the way of returning milder air back soon afterwards. UKMO closes it's run with filling Low pressure sliding SE across the UK and on over Europe leaving very slack conditions across the UK with a legacy of cloud and patchy rain or even sleet in places as things turn rather colder. GEM shows a ridge of High pressure building NE towards Southern Britain early next week with early week rain clearing to a drier and brighter phase in the South for a time. Later the weather returns changeable and wet at times again as further fronts and attendant Low pressure moves East to the North of the UK. By the end of the run winds have swung NW with sunshine and showers, wintry in the North. NAVGEM shows a similar trend to GEM but develops the ridge less and further South meaning the path to continued Atlantic dominated weather over the UK is easier with further Low pressure areas crossing East over or to the North of the UK with rain and showers at times in average temperatures. ECM shows largely changeable weather continuing next week. A drier interlude looks likely under a weak ridge at the start of the week before further Atlantic Low pressure continues to deliver rain at times in very average overall conditions for January though it could turn rather colder at times later next week. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts look very similar to this morning with a trough strecthing SE down the East of the Uk from Low pressure to the NW and SE and High well to the SW and NE. Scrolling between the two days shows little overall change with the Azores High notably strong. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to flow to the South of the UK and Southern Europe over the coming week. Later in the output it appears that the flow may strengthen while moving across the Atlantic into the UK before once more progressing into Southern Europe. In Summary tonight the indecision remains with regard to specific weather detail next week as approaching Atlantic depressions split with one portion sending energy NE while some energy moves SE across the UK with resultant slack pressure at times under Low pressure. As is alwas the case under these synoptics weather details are always hard to pin down with some rain and showers inevitable with some snow on Northern hills while other areas see dry and bright weather at times too. There is still some hope that something might develop from the East should more energy spill SE from these depressions than is currently shown but with the Atlantic remaining strong and some indication of a Jet flow strengthening later next week the favourite option remains for unsettled and Atlantic based weather to continue to run the show over the British Isles for the time being.

Good morning. Here is this morning's guide through the output from the big 5 NWP models for today Tuesday January 14th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models continue the changeable theme of weather for the next week or so. Low pressure remains in control of the weather though a ridge of High pressure crossing East today will give a dry and fine day for many with an early frost under light winds. Tonight a warm front crosses East with rain and drizzle for all before the cold front follows tomorrow with further outbreaks of rain. Temperatures will become mild melting hill snow settled over Northern Britain. Through the remainder of the week and weekend Low pressure remains close to NW Britain with showers or longer spells of rain in all areas and temperatures never far from average in mostly South or SW winds. Further flooding issues are a risk in the South and West in particular. GFS then shows a drier and colder interlude early in the week being quickly replaced by strong winds and more unsettled weather with spells of rain and showers at times for the rest of the period. It may feel rather cold at times especially in the North with some snow on higher ground at times. The GFS Ensembles remain tightly packed in agreement on average temperatures in an Atlantic based pattern throughout the run this morning. All areas remain at risk of further rain and showers throughout the period with no prospect of any significant change to drier or colder conditions anytime soon. UKMO closes it's run next Monday with Low pressure well established to the NW of Britain with an unstable Westerly airflow over the UK carrying alternating spells of rain and showers mixed with short drier spells in temperatures close to average. GEM today shows more settled conditions developing next week as pressure builds from the SW with High pressure over the UK by Day 10 with frost and fog by night and some dry and bright days with sunshine. Though improvements in the South start quite early next week things take rather longer over Northern Britain. NAVGEM has no such improvements shown with Low pressure continuing to rule the roost with Westerly winds carrying further troughs and attendant rainfall quickly East across the UK followed by showers in temperatures close to or a little below average with some hill snow possible in the north from the showery spells. ECM today shows a very changeable pattern next week and after a brief drier and colder interlude to start the week next Monday the weather becomes unsettled and windy with spells of rain and showers again as Low pressure moves across close to the North with strong Westerly winds in average temperatures once more. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a similar pattern as last night pulling the pattern slightly East while maintaining the bias towards Low pressure to the NW with Low pressure troughing lying SE down across the East of the UK and North Sea with further rain at times for all the most likely result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to maintain it's theme of crossing the Atlantic, moving SE to the SW of the UK then East across Southern Europe for some considerable time yet. Later the trend seems for it to tilt more to a East or NE direction across the UK as Low pressure moves East North of Britain through Week 2. In Summary the pattern remains locked at the moment in a generally unsettled period with rain and showers at times for all areas. Temperatures never look to be far from average as one would expect with a basically Westerly bias to the winds over the period in association with Low pressure mostly close to Northern Britain throughout. It's GEM's turn today for it's operational to show something rather different with High pressure settling things down next week with fine days and night frost and fog but it is looking very isolated in the overall scheme of things this morning. For those looking for snowfall you will continue to have to travel to the hills and mountains of the North at times with even here only limited amounts in the polar maritime air masses that pass through at times.

Good evening. Here is tonight's review of the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Monday January 13th 2014. All models show a similar pattern with just small differences on specifics for the next 6-7 days. Low pressure remains the driving force of the UK weather over this period with tomorrow offering the best day's weather as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK. By Wednesday Low pressure sends troughs NE across the UK followed by further unsettled weather with rain or showers at times. With Low pressure becoming slack and slow moving over or close to the UK later in the week areas of rain and showers will be slow moving in lighter winds which while heavy and even thundery in places will affect only limited places with plenty of dry weather around too for some. Temperatures will be non problematic on the whole though some frost at night could develop under clear skies and light winds here and there. GFS then shows next week with continuing changeable conditions with winds largely between West and NW bringing rain and showers at times with the heaviest rainfalls gradually transferring more towards the North and West with time. All this due to Low pressure areas continuing to cross East just to the North of the UK and sending associated rain bearing troughs across the nation with sunshine and showers in average temperatures. The GFS Ensembles continue the very average levels that have become the norm for much of this Winter Season. With plenty of rainfall shown nationwide spread throughout the run the Atlantic flow of Low pressure and troughs remains stubbornly persistent for all parts of the UK hindering any chance of any major improvement in alleviating the water from flood plains anytime soon. UKMO tonight ends it's run with a slack Westerly flow under Low pressure with some dry weather but also a fair chance of heavy showers or longer outbreaks of rain continuing to plague the UK with temperatures close to the average for mid January. GEM maintains Low pressure close to or over the UK with rain and showers for all continuing throughout the run with some heavy rain at times and just brief drier spells from a transitory ridge early next week. NAVGEM also shows deep Low pressure close to Southern Britain moving away slowly next week but maintaining showers or longer spells of rain in temperatures close to or a little below average. ECM tonight shows a cold SE breeze developing early next week as Low pressure transfers position from being over the UK to slipping SE to the SW of the UK by midweek. Some heavy rain or showers is very likely for many before drier weather eases down from the North with frost by night becoming much more of an issue. By the end of the run slack Low pressure to the SW and equally slack High pressure to the North setting up something rather colder from the East with the risk of wintry showers in the South. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts continue the theme of this morning with the bias of members showing a UK based trough as the most likely scenario through the middle of next week with Low pressure to the NW through the UK to the Med and High pressure well to the SW and NE too far away to be of a direct influence to the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream forecast from GFS show the flow riding across the Atlantic and then turning SE to the SW of the UK then East across Southern Europe. This general pattern is maintained through the period of the output which is hardly surprising given the uniformity of conditions for the UK shown by tonight's model output. In Summary tonight the weather remains very changeable with rain at times, some of which will be heavy and prolonged but with an equal mix of drier interludes shown by some charts too. Temperatures look like never straying far from the long term average for this time in Winter. ECM has thrown a curve ball with it's operational tonight enhancing the effects of rising pressure from the North and lower pressure to the South next week resulting in an Easterly flow and even the risk of a wintry shower or two should it verify.

Good morning everyone. A new week but will the weather this week look any different to recently. Well here is my take on the outputs of the NWP for the next 10-14 days issued at midnight on Monday January 13th 2014 and lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show Low pressure in the Atlantic with an unstable SW flow over the UK. A trough will move West to East through Britain today enhancing showers as it goes heaviest in the South and West. A ridge of High pressure follows tomorrow with showers restricted to the far NW as a result. Later in the day a new depression and fronts approach Western Britain and sweep East tomorrow night and Wednesday with rain and strong winds for all, heavy at times. Through Wednesday more showery weather will spread across Britain though a frontal wave across the South could delay the clearance here. The rest of the week and weekend looks very unsettled with the UK covered in relatively Low pressure with various features enhancing showers or producing longer spells of rain at times and with some snow at times on Northern hills. GFS then moves into it's second half this morning with chilly NW winds with further rain at times and snow on hills. Later in the week the weather dries up from the SW as a stronger ridge passes over with some frost at night before milder Atlantic winds return before the end of the run with fronts bringing rain, this time more especially over Northern Britain. The GFS Ensembles generally back up the operational model very well though if anything it delays the slight improvement illustrated in Week 2 to the very end of the period. With very average uppers across the UK throughout it looks unlikely there will be much in the way of wintry weather with rain at times likely throughout. UKMO closes it's run with next Sunday looking unsettled with Low pressure positioned over Iceland with an open trough structure South and SE over and around the UK. As a result while there will be some dry weather especially inland the risk of rain or heavy showers is high in temperatures close to or a little below average sufficiently so for some Northern hill snow in places at times. GEM continues the unsettled weather throughout it's later stages this morning with disturbances running ESE or East across the UK with rain events followed by sunshine and showers in brisk winds continuing right out towards the end of next week. As with the other models despite feeling chilly in the wind at times temperatures will remain close to just a fraction below average with some snow events on the higher Northern hills at times. NAVGEM closes it's run with a Low positioned in the Southern North Sea with a chilly NW flow producing sunshine and scattered wintry showers. Looking over the horizon beyond termination of the run there seems little to stop further westerly winds and fronts to continue the unsettled and breezy pattern. ECM shows a much colder feel next week although not remarkably so. High pressure to the SW and over Eastern Europe are trying desperately hard to link next week with the UK in the meeting ground with Low pressure troughs amalgamating and weakening in situ over the UK. There would be some rain at times and possibly sleet or snow over the hills with an Easterly flow for a day or two before slack winds in rather cold air become present later next week. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts are back to it's UK trough scenario looking the bias between the members of it's ensemble group this morning with therefore the most likely prospect of a continuation of the unsettled and changeable pattern with rain at times with High pressure too far to the NE and SW. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream today looks like continuing to blow somewhat weaker than of late. Nevertheless it continues to influence the UK weather as it flows East over the Atlantic and then dips SE to the South of the UK and on over Southern Europe. This maintains a UK based trough for some considerable time bisected by High pressure over Eastern Europe and the Azores. In Summary the weather remains in an unsettled vein this morning with all models posting a lot of Low pressure based charts for the UK. As a result we can all expect further rain and showers across the UK for the next 10-14 days with only small but subtle differences in conditions day to day. Temperatures will never be overly mild and it may feel a little chilly at times in fresh breezes and temperatures close to or a fraction below average. There is the chance of some snow at times over Northern hills and if this morning's ECM operational run is to be believed this may extend to Southern hills too for a time next week. Despite this though there seems little to suggest we will be entering a anticyclonic cold spell soon so unfortunately the flooding risk though lessened continues for parts of the UK through the period of this morning's output.

Hi everyone. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from the NWP covering the next 10-14 days issued on Sunday January 12th and taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a very unsettled week to come with the exception of Tuesday. Low pressure is again becoming the dominant factor governing the UK weather over the coming week. It's position over the North Atlantic will push a trough across the UK tonight with rain with another one tomorrow bringing showers, these most prevalent towards the South and West where some could be heavy and thundery. Over Tuesday a ridge will bring a window of drier weather before a new active depression over the North Atlantic west of Britain pushes another set of troughs across the UK on Wednesday with some heavy rain and strong winds followed by a return to showers on Thursday. The rest of the week and into the weekend then shows the parent low filling slowly but remaining close by or over the UK with further rain at times in average temperatures and relatively light winds. GFS then shows the second half of the run with only small changes taking place with only fundamental changes in the trajectory and motion of Low pressure areas not creating major changes at the surface with most areas continuing to see rain at times through Week 2 through a rather windier spell of West winds and temperatures never far from the seasonal average. At the very end of the run a change to colder weather is shown for a time but at that range it will be gone by tomorrow. The GFS Ensembles show a very flat pattern with the mean for the run hugging the long term average mean line tonight. So from this we can deduce further unsettled weather with rain at times especially later in Week 1 with little chance if any of any cold weather in sight other than transient polar maritime air behind exiting depressions later. UKMO tonight shows Low pressure from Iceland linked to a broad and deep trough over the UK ensuring further rain at times over all areas with some snow at times possible over Northern hills. GEM also shows an unsettled end to the coming week under Low pressure. Through the latter stages of it's run it shows the Jet stream moving North with depressions then taking a more Northerly trajectory pulling winds over the UK into the WSW and bringing mild and damp weather with rather less rain at times for many, especially in the South. NAVGEM ends it's run with a cool and showery NW flow giving way to a drier and brighter phase as a ridge of High pressure moves in with some sunshine by day but with a frost or two likely at night for a time. ECM tonight also shows an incessant unsettled spell lasting for the next 10 days with Low pressure always in control delivering rain at times and cold enough for some snow on the hills, especially later as colder air comes into the mix as Low pressure slowly exits South and East of the UK with the run closing next Wednesday with a weak ridge across the UK under cold air with some wintry showers possible towards the East. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show continuing changeable conditions with a bias towards a Westerly flow and average temperatures between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure near the Azores and Eastern Europe. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream profile over the next week or two remains lighter than recently but continuing a sine wave undulating across the Atlantic and Southern Europe through this week before it moves a little North over Europe while maintaining a generally Eastward track close to the UK in Week 2. In Summary the models continue to programme a very unsettled spell for the period covered by the runs. Whilst not as wet or windy than conditions over Christmas and the New Year there will still be some heavy rain around at times with flooding problems remaining an issue, the rain seemingly heaviest at times over the areas of the South and West that least need it. There will be a few drier and brighter interludes between the rain events especially later where there are still a few indications that things might turn a bit colder.

Good morning. Here is the report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Sunday January 12th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show another period of unsettled weather knocking on the door of the West as I type with a trough of Low pressure moving East across the UK later today and tonight with a spell of rain moving over all areas with clear spells and showers overnight. Tomorrow shows another trough moving East through the day with more extensive showers crossing most areas perhaps heavy with hail and thunder in the SW. By Tuesday a weak ridge is shown to cross Eastwards with sunshine and a largely dry window of weather through the day. However, by midweek Low pressure deepens to the NW and brings strong winds and rain NE across all areas through the day. Throughout this period temperatures will be close to average but cold enough at times for some snow over Northern high hills and mountains. GFS then shows the latter end of the week remaining unsettled and sometimes wet as the model shows Low pressure persisting over or near the UK in largely Westerly winds never too strong but never too warm either. In the second half of the run today the weather still remains unsettled as further Low pressure moves ESE across the North before a system moves more directly SE across Britain and into Europe with pressure rising from the NW with a cold NE flow developing in the South at the end of the run with wintry showers and sharp frosts over the North. The GFS Ensembles show the wet January persisting with Low pressure after Low pressure continuing to flow across the Atlantic and the UK maintaining the very tight and average range between the members with regard to uppers and offering little chance of cold and snow. UKMO closes it's run on Day 6 with Low pressure slow moving and straddled down over Western Britain with a Southerly drift for many and troughs also embedded in the flow with rain, heavy at times commonplace especially towards the South and West, just where it is not needed. GEM today shows the unsettled flow persisting over the UK under Low pressure or a Westerly flow in association with Low pressure to the North. This would mean a continuation of wet and sometimes windy weather throughout the latter section of the run. NAVGEM today shows the UK as still the home to troughs of Low pressure ambling in from the Atlantic and stalling somewhat with rain at times in temperatures close to or perhaps a little below average, the latter more likely over the North and NE. ECM today also shows changeable weather with rain at times in temperatures close to average under a persistent trough of Low pressure lying down over the UK. A window of drier weather is shown towards Day 10 as a ridge crosses East but the next trough is shown crossing the Atlantic to reach the West and NW of the UK soon after the term of the run. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart today have declined away from last night's ridging with both charts indicating the most likely option being generally a Westerly flow with a continuation of rain at times for all. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream remains the reason for this continued unsettled pattern as it continues to pump across the Atlantic firstly to the South of the UK and Southern Europe before moving North to cross the UK later in the output. In Summary today the weather looks almost certain to stay unsettled for the foreseeable future and sometimes thoroughly wet as Low pressure areas become strung out over the UK later this week before we probably drift into a more mobile Atlantic Westerly flow later in the run. As a result temperatures never look like being far from the seasonal average though it may feel somewhat chilly at times in the breeze and rain. There remains very little scope in the synoptic patterns as shown this morning for any drift into anything remotely very cold and wintry anytime soon and certainly not within the next 10-14 days.

Good evening folks. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014 taken from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing East over the UK overnight. Tomorrow sees a trough of low pressure with freshening Southerly winds move East into Western Britain with rain following, crossing most of the UK overnight and exiting the East by Monday morning to leave a showery SW flow with some places becoming dry. Another trough crosses East on Monday night with further brighter conditions for Tuesday before a deep trough on Wednesday brings a threat of widespread rain to all areas, heaviest in the South and West with the risk of a little snow on Northern hills. GFS tonight shows a tale of two halves tonight with the first half of the output in a very unsettled mode with rain at times as areas of Low pressure stays close to or over the UK. Later in the run the Azores High makes more of an influence to the UK as it ridges closer in towards Southern Britain while maintaining an Atlantic Westerly flow with rain more confined to Northern areas. The GFS Ensembles show a fairly ordinary January pattern made up of Atlantic based weather of both the wet variety and some of the drier variety too as High pressure steps closer in from the Azores later in the run. Some slightly colder weather is shown towards the middle of the run but looks hardly memorable. UKMO tonight closes it's run with a Low pressure belt stretching from the NW of Britain down towards the SW of Britain with a Southerly feed of air with rain at times, heaviest in the West. GEM also shows unsettled weather throughout this run with Low pressure feeding in from the Atlantic from a NW trajectory with some heavy rain at times and some strong winds at times too. Temperatures will be close to average overall with some colder air in the North at times sufficient to allow for snow at times on Northern hills. NAVGEM tonight as this morning shows Low pressure further North than it's rivals with unsettled weather for all with rain at times in basically Westerly winds. Temperatures as a result would be close to or perhaps a little higher than average. ECM tonight shows equally unsettled weather as the other models with a strong ridge developing in 10 days time on this operational model which would result in a colder and frosty interlude to start the Week 2. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts show a ridge of High pressure likely to be close to the UK with hints of a link with High pressure to the NE which could result in something rather drier and colder with time. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow much weaker than has been the case for quite a while with it's flow taking it well South over Europe for a time. Later in the output the flow strengthens again and passes directly across the Atlantic and the UK through Week 2 though with a higher latitude over Europe around the Azores High. In Summary tonight the weather remains generally unsettled and sometimes wet over the next week to 10 days. There are still signs shown that the Azores High might rescue the flooding position across the South from 10 days or so as it migrates further in towards the South of Britain later. Temperatures look like holding average values across most parts with slightly colder conditions biased towards the North at times and possibly more extensively late in the period.

I mentioned the Mean Charts in my report above. As it stands there is nothing to report for anyone looking for cold today. The Azores High is predicted to strengthen in a week or so time with the Jet flow steered on it's course over the Atlantic and up to the North meaning one thing for the UK..mild West winds. Of course this is based on the 00z output and not my own thoughts and could all change in the coming days..who knows. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gif http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday January 11th 2014. All models show a ridge of High pressure crossing slowly East across the UK today and tonight with fine and sunny weather following any early rain clearing the SE. Also the showers in the NW, wintry in hills will also clear later. Through tomorrow the models show the approach of a trough of Low pressure from a mid Atlantic depression bringing increasing Southerly winds and rain across Western districts first and Eastern areas overnight Sunday to be followed by a showery SW flow for Monday. The showers may be heavy and thundery in the SW but more scattered elsewhere. Through Monday night a further trough crosses all areas with further heavy rain with a return to showery weather on Tuesday. By Wednesday Low pressure is shown in close proximity to the UK from all models with further rain and showers a risk for all especially in the South and West. Temperatures towards midweek look like staying largely close to average with any slightly below average values restricted to the far North and NE. GFS shows a UK trough continuing in situ for the rest of the week. However, the Azores High will become very strong later and gradually the influence from Low pressure will become more restricted towards Northern areas as the Jet Stream shifts North again where rain at times will continue in strong Westerly winds while Southern areas see longer drier spells and rather cloudy weather also under Westerly breezes with temperatures close to or somewhat above average for late January. The GFS Ensembles reflect the above picture quite well with some wet weather for many next week giving way to somewhat drier weather with less rainfall especially across the South as High pressure to the South gives relatively mild weather given the time of year. UKMO closes it's run on Friday with a large and complex Low structure across the UK and away to the North of the UK too maintaining the rainfall issues for many areas on a regular basis through the end of next week in average temperatures and winds that will be fresh but not troubling. GEM today keeps Low pressure over or near the UK throughout next week with plenty of wind and rain at times. Very late in the run the balance of pressure rises somewhat from the SW but insufficiently so to prevent cloud and rain from Atlantic troughs to continue to move in on Westerly breezes and average temperatures at the end of the run. NAVGEM this morning shows Low pressure somewhat further North as early as later next week but the weather would remain no less unsettled with rain at times from active weather systems moving East over the UK in strong winds at times too and once more very average temperatures for January. ECM today also show all of next week and weekend as very unsettled as Low pressure remains close by over or just to the South or West of the UK. This means these areas will see the wettest conditions with further flooding issues likely later next week. In the far reaches of the run this model too shows signs of rising pressure from the SW and while changeable weather looks likely to persist the weather would warm up as Atlantic Westerlies between High pressure to the South and Low pressure to the North looks like developing in response to a Jet stream moving back North. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Charts shows a trend for the UK trough over next week to move away slowly East with the Azores High likely to become a major player in the UK weather at the end of the month as it gradually pushes Low pressure further North and brings mild Atlantic air and some rain at times across the UK with most of the rain likely in the North later with at last some drier and benign conditions in the South hinted at. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The GFS Jet Stream forecast is for the flow to continue to flow East at fairly low latitudes currently in a poorly defined state before it strengthens over the Atlantic next week and on across Southern Europe through next week. Longer term it is shown to move North over the Atlantic around an Azores High while splitting with one arm staying over Southern Europe while a Northern arm sets up across the Northern Atlantic and over to Scandinavia later. In Summary today the weather typified of Winter 2013/14 so far continues on this morning for another week to 10 days. While the stormy weather of the Christmas and New Year period looks less likely there will still be a lot of rain for some areas, especially in the South and West as Low pressure remains in close proximity to the UK over the next week to 10 days. Longer term the trend is shown for the Jet flow to shift North as the Azores High becomes a strong feature with a Westerly flow shown later by some output. Depressions are then shown to be sent further North with something of a North/South split possible with the most rain returning to the North while mild weather looks like being the order of the day everywhere later under Westerly breezes. Any chances of significant cold anytime within the next two weeks anywhere look very slim this morning and with an Azores High very strong in two weeks time I would suggest this could be extended even longer.

Good evening. Here is this evening's report on the midday outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday January 10th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a weakening cold front crossing the UK with patchy rain continuing to push East across remaining Southern and Eastern areas followed by clearing skies and colder but light NW winds head of a stronger ridge of High pressure than we have seen for quite some time. This brings a dry weekend for many with a frost on Saturday night. However, the pattern remains fluid and further Low pressure troughs move in from the West later on Sunday and extends East to Eastern areas too by Monday with rain followed by showers for many. On Tuesday further Low pressure out to the West sends frontal troughs East again over the South and West in particular with other areas too seeing rain at times. GFS shows the midweek period with deep Low pressure slow moving across the UK with rain and showers encircling the UK some of it heavy and prolonged in very average temperatures for mid January. Later in the run the Azores High becomes a large feature down to the SW with the Jet Stream rounding the Northern flank of the High across the UK and down over Southern Europe. With time the weather would become less wet but mild for all with Westerly winds bringing a lot of cloud across the UK from the Atlantic with any rain from troughs restricted to Northernmost parts. The GFS Ensembles have shelved the cold spell now with virtually all members maintaining generally changeable conditions with rain at times in temperatures close to average over all areas in brisk winds at times. UKMO tonight shows Thursday afternoon's chart with Low pressure positioned near NW Britain with a cyclonic South or SW flow over the UK with rain at times, some heavy being experienced by most if not all areas with temperatures close to average. GEM keeps Low pressure close to Southern Britain through the middle and end of next week with a continuing risk of heavy rain and showers almost anywhere but more likely in the South as temperatures hold up to average reasonably well. By the end of the run Low pressure remains in control close to the NW with unstable West or NW winds quite strong at times and temperatures close to average though perhaps rather colder later under the NW flow. NAVGEM shows Low pressure receding away North later leaving a mild and fresh Atlantic Westerly flow across the UK with some rain at times still chiefly in the North and West. ECM today looks quite different in it's later stages to this morning's run with Low pressure slipping away South after giving us a wet and unsettled week next week only to be replaced by another deep Low sliding East past Northern Scotland towards the end of the run and sending an interval of colder NNW winds and wintry showers down over the UK by the end of next weekend. The ECM 9 and 10 day Mean Chart suggests a biased suggestion of a trough near the UK with unsettled weather likely in association with it the most likely weather type through this period. A strong Azores High is once more a significant feature with any cold weather nowhere to be seen at this juncture. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream remains in a confused and indeterminate mode over the coming few days before it settles over Southern Europe for a time next week. Later on it is shown to reset North to the North of the UK and towards Northern Europe following a more active Azores Anticyclone through Week 2. In Summary tonight the dying embers of the projected cold weather has been completely removed tonight with a cocktail of models that all show different synoptics within the same changeable pattern with more unwanted rain at times for all with some short and drier interludes at times too with temperatures never far from average.

Good morning everyone. Here is the report on the 12 midnight outputs from the NWP for today Friday January 10th 2014, the report lifted from http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models show a quieter interlude of weather over the UK for the next 48-60 hours. A weakening trough is shown to cross East over the UK today with some rain but this should pass without much enhancement to the flooding already in place and will be followed by colder and frosty conditions by night and sunny spells by day through Saturday and the start of Sunday. Then an active front attached to a deep Low in the mid Atlantic swings East across the UK overnight Sunday and into Monday with some heavy rain in places followed by showers across Southern and Western areas. GFS then shows Low pressure to the NW sliding gently South across the UK through the week filling slowly. This means there will be plenty of rain again next week with temperatures close to average though rather colder in the far NE at times. Through the extended section of the run this morning the weather maintains this very changeable and unsettled pattern in temperatures never far from average though a drier period is shown for a time later. The GFS Ensembles show things turning colder on recent standards and certainly cold enough for hill snow at times. However, deep cold is not shown when taken as a whole with rain at times more likely than snow for many. UKMO today closes it's run next Thursday with deep Low pressure West of Ireland with an unstable Southerly flow over the UK ranging from SE in the North and SW in the South. There will be troughs moving up across the UK at times with showers or longer spells of rain in average temperatures. GEM today looks disturbingly wet this morning as a seemingly never ending series of Low pressure areas slide SE across Southern Britain with rain bands incessantly affecting these areas. In addition there is some cold air entrapped within this complex setup with no doubt some snowfall for some areas turning up at times, especially towards the North and later elsewhere. NAVGEM shows Low pressure slipping South over Ireland late next week with rain in abundance especially across the South and West with temperatures largely close to average. ECM shows Low pressure slipping South from Western Britain to France and Spain with a chillier Easterly flow setting up later with the wet weather gradually giving way to drier weather but rather grey and overcast with the most likely pattern being that some light sleety showers would be possible, especially in the South with some frost developing over the North as skies gradually clear. The ECM 10 day Mean Chart shows little hope for those seeking cold as this morning's mean edges the UK trough even further East to lie down Eastern Britain and the North sea with an Azores High influence shown possible with time. This pattern locks any cold weather the other side of the North Sea and receding. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream continues to look it is going to sink South over Europe next week in response to rising pressure over the North of Europe. In Summary the weather still looks like being depressingly wet for many next week as the normal progression of depressions from the Atlantic Eastwards is thwarted by rising pressure to the NE. This means that the slow moving nature of these features will provide plenty of opportunity for rain bearing troughs to become slow moving across the UK and bringing plenty of cloudy and gloomy weather to most areas. Late in the period the weather could turn somewhat colder as there is some indication of low pressure slipping to the South and opening the door to something from the East to flood West over Britain though a major wintry outbreak looks unlikely from this morning's pattern.

Hi everyone. Here is my evening report on the outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 9th 2014 lifted from my website at http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm All models currently show the UK under gently rising pressure as a weak ridge crosses East over the UK overnight ahead of a weakening cold front moving steadily East across the UK tomorrow bringing an area of showery rain with it clearing from the West later in the day. saturday's charts from all models show a fine and dry day as a strong ridge of High pressure crosses East bringing colder air with a sharp frost and fog patches possible on Saturday Night. The respite from the rain then ends on Sunday as after a dry start a new Atlantic depression pushes wind and rain NE across the UK later in the day, heavy in places. GFS then shows a very unsettled week next week as Low pressure slides South down the Western side of the UK through the period bringing rain and showers at times all week with the heaviest rain and showers reserved for Western and SW areas in temperatures close to normal. Northern and Eastern parts will be colder for a time with the risk of some of the precipitation falling as snow over the hills. Through the extended outlook the model shows the Azores High building NE across the UK to bring drier weather with temperatures close to normal across England and Wales before Atlantic Westerlies strengthen over the North with rain at times to end the run. The GFS Ensembles tonight has evaporated the previously predicted cold spell to nothing as it now looks the changeable but largely unsettled spell will continue through the next two weeks though with less rainfall overall than lately. UKMO tonight closes it's run next Wednesday with Low pressure with a deep Low pressure to the West of Ireland and showers or longer spells of rain over all areas through the day in temperatures close to average. GEM tonight shows deeply unsettled weather with Low pressure areas sliding SE over the SW of the UK and bringing strong SE and occasionally cold east winds with rain copious in amounts at times and some snow on hills too at times as cold continental air flows West on the Northern flank of the Low pressure areas. NAVGEM tonight is in the Atlantic camp as it brings deep Low pressure slowly East into the UK from the West through next week filling it gently as it comes in. the net result will be a lot of showers and longer spells of heavy rain at times with average temperatures and ongoing flooding issues almost anywhere. ECM tonight remains poor news for those in the SW looking for flood relief as most of next week continues to show Low pressure close by with areas of rain and showers spiraling around various centres of Low pressure all week. It looks poor news too for cold fans away from NE Britain as too much Atlantic influence brings rain rather than snow in temperatures marginally colder than of late but at least far less windy. The run closes with the threat of colder conditions finally seeping West from Europe on slowly backing winds towards the East and with Low pressure still in close proximity to the South and SW some of the rain could begin to turn to snow over the hills. The ECM 9 and 10 Day Mean Chart show a UK trough in response to High pressure likely to be near NE Europe in 10 days time with rain at times in winds from a Southerly aspect the most likely result. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2161.gifhttp://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif The Jet Stream shows the flow crossing the Atlantic next week and staying well South over Europe as a result of High pressure over Northern Europe. The problem is with an Azores High the trajectory of the flow over the Atlantic becomes problematic for the UK to tap into anything cold from the East. In Summary tonight the spectre has fallen on anticipated cold weather next week as most output now shows unsettled and often wet conditions in temperatures close to average. Some particularly wet charts are shown which if verified would exasipate flooding issues with very little opportunity for anything profoundly dry for any length of time in any one place. However, despite the pattern between the models being generally similar the specifics are quite different in the period from midweek next week which indicates the models have not got a handle on longer term evolutions on tonight's outputs.

Good morning. Here is this morning's look at the midnight outputs from the NWP for today Thursday January 9th 2014. All models show a brief respite in the recent wet conditions over the next 72 hours. However, even this is fraught with frustration for some as all models show further troughs moving in from the Atlantic tomorrow and again later on Sunday. Although tomorrow's front will not be particularly active there will be some heavy bursts of rain on it in the West and after a fine and colder day on Saturday a more active set of fronts moves in later on Sunday with a strong Southerly wind and heavy rain with flooding issues enhancing again. Then through Monday a more showery period develops as winds fall lighter but it looks like becoming colder as all models from quite early in the week bring colder air to the North and East with a growing risk of some of the rain turning to sleet and snow. GFS then shows the middle week period with yet another active frontal system affecting the SW with further heavy rain. It's this feature as it moves SE that brings the colder weather in the North and East further towards the SW as the fronts hit the colder air and turns more and more of the rain to sleet and snow to all areas by the end of the week as cold Easterly winds develop over all areas. Then through the lower resolution part of the run the cold weather is shown to persist in the South with further risk of sleet and snow at times while the North sees the cold relaxing under a ridge of High pressure with sharp frosts and eventually becoming milder as milder Atlantic winds take hold over Scotland. The GFS Ensembles show nothing particularly exciting temperature wise and only keep rather cold uppers for a brief while next eek before the mean brings values back up to closer to normal later. precipitation remains a feature throughout the period and some of this will be of snow in places for a time with not much evidence of anything particularly dry lasting for any length of time in any one place. UKMO is not that interested in producing much in the way of cold next week with only the North and East at risk. Instead it shows Low pressure anchored in the Atlantic with a strong flow dragging fronts into the UK next week with some regularity, especially into those areas in the South and West that least need it. GEM shows the weather turning colder quickly next week as high pressure to the NE becomes the driving force to our weather with increasingly cold winds from the East. With Low pressure to the SW and fronts close by here the risk of snow is a very real one from the middle of next week and beyond particularly in the South. NAVGEM shows also High pressure over Scandinavia a week from now with a cold and unstable ESE flow over the UK dragging cold surface air across the UK from Europe with snow likely at times especially towards the South and near the East coasts of Britain. ECM today is rather less wintry keeping Low pressure over the UK for longer before it slides away South later in the week. For flood stricken areas this model brings an awful lot more rain to those areas that least need it with spells of heavy rain and showers maintained through the week gradually turning more wintry in Northern and Eastern areas firstly and then to other areas too later in the week. The ECM Mean Chart for 10 Days shows good confidence on High pressure biased towards Scandinavia with a Low pressure trough stalled close to the UK. This is a typical classic Winter setup for the UK which can often bring some wintry weather to anywhere over the UK at times as cold continental surface air looks likely to be dragged across Britain from Europe bumping into frontal activity which looks strong over the UK with sleet and snow a real possibility for almost anywhere away from coasts. The Jet Stream Forecast from GFS shows the flow migrating further South of the UK next week and East across Southern Europe. Later in the output the flow is shown to split with one arm maintained over the South of Europe while a Northern arm later puts pressure on the Scandinavian block by rounding it's Northern flank, sinking it South slowly later. In Summary this morning it looks likely that next week's weather could go one of two ways. The Euros show that it looks likely to keep an Atlantic feed of air with spells of rain and showers continuing to pummel those areas of the South and West that least need it with the North and East likely to see some snow for a time as the fronts reach colder air here. The ECM Ensembles and the operational's of GEM and GFS are much stronger on their suggestions that the UK will turn much colder before the middle of the week with the risk of snow almost anywhere as low pressure troughs over or to the West of the UK disrupt and get forced SE into Europe allowing Easterly winds to flood over the UK. There will no doubt be a lot of ups and downs in this developing situation as we go through the outputs of the coming days and through the weekend before we know to what extent if any cold weather affects the UK next week but at least the best chance this Winter yet of snow and cold exists currently.