Gibby

Beautiful here this morning. A valley ground frost though but temps recovering well now. Current conditions at: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 9TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY NOVEMBER 10TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A slack and cyclonic Westerly flow covers the UK today. Winds back Southerly and strengthen tomorrow as an active front edges slowly East across the UK. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. perhaps becoming a little colder and drier from the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow continuing to be forced to a position to the South of Britain over the next week keeping the UK in a cyclonic flow. Later in the period the flow splits into two with a Northern and Southern arm, the latter weakening and ridging North over and around the British Isles later in Week 2 and linking with the Northern arm over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's GFS operational run shows the UK continue to see areas of Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and into the UK from the West where they become slow moving and fill slowly bbringing spells of rain, heavy at times along with strong winds in average temperatures. Through the period the desire to build pressure from the North remains and succeeds through week 2 with winds switching Easterly and bringing further rain at times to the South and drier conditions near High pressure close to the North later. Temperatures would probably fall to a little below average in this new setup. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run carries the same sequence of events though differs in Week 2 by collapsing High pressure to the North SE over Europe and cutting off any route to colder and prolonged drier conditions for the UK as well as bringing the UK back under attack of Atlantic Low pressure from the West and SW later with it's subsequent wind and rainfall. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are broadly similar in message with a wet first week under slow moving UK Low pressure being forced South in Week 2 in rising pressure from the North and NE with an ESE flow developing with drier and chillier weather as a result, chiefly in the North and East. Low pressure over the Atlantic will continue to run up against this block centred over Europe by then and keep the risk of rain and strong SE winds going for the South and West. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure deep and persistent out to the West and NW of the UK through this week with spells of rain and heavy, thundery showers going into next weekend in relatively mild conditions. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of occlusions and showery troughs edging slowly East across the UK through this week each bringing their own variety of wind, rain and thundery showers across the UK all connected around deep Low pressure anchored to the West of Ireland. GEM GEM shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next week spinning in from the West towards SW Britain with heavy rain and showers at times as a result in average temperatures if not somewhat mild in places. Later on pressure rises over Northern Europe and a SE wind setsup with Low pressure then to the SW with further rain here at times while Northern and Eastern parts become drier and less mild. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure in complete domination over the UK through next week with the main centre out to the NW next weekend with showers or longer spells of rain in relatively mild and strong South or SW winds for all as a result. ECM ECM this morning shows unsettled and relatively mild weather over the next week with rain and showers, heaviest and most prolific across Southern and Western areas. Over next weekend and the following week pressure is shown to rise to the North and NE with winds switxhing towards an Easterly point as well as being quite strong. Although feeling colder temperatures will only fall modestly and with Low pressure still entrained across the Atlantic to the South and SW further rain at times looks like it would edge up into Southern Britain at times too in the mostly cloudy flow. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ensembles point to a continuation of broadly unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK in average temperatures and a SE flow as Low pressure continues to stretch from Southern Greenland to the SW of the UK. Some of the rain will be heavy and winds look like continuing quite strong at times. Pressure remains High to the NE of the UK at that time. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today still shows a chance of High pressure developing to the North and NE bringing drier conditions to the North and East in Week 2 with slightly colder weather. MY THOUGHTS The synoptic pattern over the UK and surrounding waters remain very complex over the next few weeks. The UK remains in the firing line for deep Low pressure moving across the Atlantic and stalling near our shores through this week with rain and showers for all areas as a result and it will stay generally windy and relatively mild. I guess the interest for many occurs from around next weekend when pressure builds strongly to the North and NE of Britain and this theme is shared by all output. This then forces Low pressure out of Britain and to the South and SW with a SE or East flow likely to develop across the UK in some shape or form through week 2. This would normally introduce much colder and potentially wintry weather to the UK but this looks unlikely as Europe remains much milder than average and the orientation of such High pressure does not permit any interaction with cold Arctic air as things are shown currently plus of course we are still very early into the Winter Season. So due to all these factors the most likely pattern to evolve will be of a chillier East or SE wind bringing drier conditions to North and East Britain but with a lot of cloud and the brightest conditions towards areas such as West Scotland on the leeward side of high ground. It also looks like Low pressure will never be far away from the South and SW and the desire to pull this back across the UK late in the period is hinted at by some output and it maybe that Southern Britain remain unsettled with rain at times anyway. My own thoughts at the moment are that it looks unlikely that this pattern will evolve in such a way that brings cold weather to the UK on this occasion and could end up being just a cloudy and benign coolish period before the Atlantic wins back. Nevertheless, like last night's ECM operational showed there is always potential when the synoptics setup in the way and it only needs a change of orientation of the High and Low pressure features to change my opinion to something rather colder but I conclude that this is not shown this morning so I don't expect the Met Office to indicate any note of particular change in the mid range forecasts unless cross model support for something more wintry is shown consistently for several days at least and we're not even on the treadmill to that goal yet.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 8TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Fronts will clear NE over the UK today with a showery westerly flow following. A wave depression will move NE over Southern Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow at around 50 deg North or a little less which takes it across France for much of the period in varying strengths having crossed the Atlantic. This general pattern remains in situ over the entire period. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows the UK continue to see areas of Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and into the UK from the West where they become slow moving and fill slowly before being reignited by new features coming in from the West. This means little change from the current pattern of wind and rain occurring on frequent occasions for all areas in temperatures never far from the seasonal average. Winds will be quite strong at times with gales in places at times. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in Week 1 with plenty of wind and rain for all before a slight change in week 2 is shown in as much as some colder air becomes entrained across Northern Britain for a time with some snow over the hills and mountains for a time. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles paint a very active Atlantic feeding low pressure after Low pressure towards and over the UK for the first week to 10 days with rain and showers all too frequent for many in average temperatures. Later on the trend shifts Low pressure more towards the NW while maintaining a windy and westerly flow to the airflow with spells of rain and showers for all in still close to average temperatures. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure well established over the Atlantic and close to Western Britain with strong and cyclonic winds maintained over the UK through the middle days of next week with rain and showers, heavy at times in temperatures close to average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts continue to show a cyclonic airflow over the UK with Low pressure centred to the West and NW with occasional decelerating Eastward moving troughs crossing the UK each bringing their own version of wind and rain affecting all areas at times. GEM GEM continues to look very disturbed with Low pressure after Low pressure moving ESE towards the UK each bringing rain and strong winds at times with average temperatures as a result. Pressure is shown to be High to the North and colder air in association with this could flirt with the North and NE at times later. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps the UK locked under Low pressure over the next week, moving in from the WNW and filling slowly in situ across Britain later. Rain and showers will continue to affect all areas at times in blustery winds and average temperatures. ECM ECM feeds Low pressure down across the UK over the next 10 days with much rain and strong winds especially towards the South and West. Temperatures should remain close to average though with pressure high to the North later some far Northern areas could see colder air filter in here at times with somewhat drier conditions as a result. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles are rock solid this morning in maintaining a Low pressure belt stretching from Southern Greenland to the UK and down towards Italy on a Jet flow remaining South of the UK and maintaining wind, rain and showers at times in temperatures close to average. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today has reversed from yesterday morning in as much as any rise in pressure is now shown to more likely edge down from the North later rather than the South meaning the far North could tap into somewhat colder and drier conditions in 10-14 days. MY THOUGHTS The synoptic pattern over the Atlantic and the UK is very volatile at the moment and this looks like being maintained over the next few weeks. The Jet flow is quite strong and expected to remain so over the upcoming period and with it's location quite well South Low pressure areas are directed down across the UK spreading their deeply unsettled conditions to all areas. With time there is an interesting and strong trend for Northern blocking to occur up near the Arctic Circle and given the season and the rapidly cooling Northern hemisphere at this time of year colder air over Iceland and Scandinavia later in the period could begin to make inroads South towards the far North and NE of Britain later. At the moment all models show this well bottled in situ as the Atlantic feed of depressions from the States remains strong at the end of the run keeping many areas unsettled and sometimes wet but it is something which will need to be watched ver coming days outputs as there is a fighting chance that this could edge South over Britain later in the month. Probably of more concern though is the cumulative effect of the amounts of rain that are likely to be falling across parts of Britain inparticularly across the South and West and unfortunately a surface flooding risk is likely to grow with time over the period. Interestingly as well if there is any engagement with the aforementioned colder air to the North late in the period we could enhance this risk still more as cyclogenesis would be exacerbated further. So interesting times ahead weather-wise with plenty of active weather events likely over the coming weeks and while there is no sign of a quick dip into winter for the UK there are enough interesting synoptics later in the period to keep the cold fans interested.

Thanks Ian. I'm sure some people here and on the other channel think I am a mild ranper but this is totally untrue as I like cold weather and a good blizzard like most but as yet I see no real excitement on that front on the horizon yet.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 7TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A series of fronts with strong Southerly winds ahead of them will cross East over the UK today and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier and milder in the South later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the flow crossing East over the Atlantic near to 50 deg North over the coming two weeks. This means the UK will be on the Northern side of the flow before it trends just very slightly North over Southern Britain at the end of the prediction. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows the UK being home to complex Low pressure feeding in from the NW Atlantic and settling over or just to the NW of the UK. The net result would be spells of rain and showers with just brief drier and brighter spells, more particularly for a period at the start of Week 2 as something of a ridge develops for a time across the South. By the end of the run we are back to square 1 with a strong West flow over the Atlantic under a deep low to the NW with rain bearing troughs crossing East over the UK in average temperatures throughout. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in Week 1 but moves forward to indicate somewhat more influence of High pressure either as a ridge from High pressure to the East or the South with less rainfall as a result and perhaps a little more in the way of frost and fog patches briefly. Overall though the pattern remains an Atlantic driven pattern though. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the West frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the West of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure over Southern Britain late in the period with drier weather with overnight mist and fog possibilities replacing the wind and rain that will continue in the far North and West UKMO UKMO today shows a deep Low pressure area moving ESE over the Atlantic to lie just West of Ireland by midweek with an unstable and strong Southerly flow over the UK carrying spells of heavy rain or thundery showers North and NE across the UK in temperatures close to average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West though these are shown to decrease early next week. GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts moving across the Atlantic and setting up shop just to the West of Ireland and pushing troughs East across the UK with heavy rain and showers for all in often strong and blustery winds and average temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows active Low pressure moving in towards NW Ireland at the start of next week with strong SW winds and rain as a result being all too common throughout the run this morning. JMA JMA is not fully issued at time of publish but the first 5 days show a similar pattern to the rest as Low pressure from the NW dominates the UK weather with rain and showers in average temperatures. ECM ECM feeds Low pressure down the Western side of the UK next week with strong South or SW winds and heavy rain at times as a result. It then takes the Lows back north and migrates the deep centres further to the NW than early in the run which allows pressure to rise somewhat in the South with the heaviest rain and strongest winds returning towards the North and West with the chance of some drier spells in the South and East in temperatures never far from average and perhaps a shade above in the South later. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles are basically unchanged from recent runs and shows a more defined trough than the operational stretching from Greenland to the British Isles and down to Italy which indicates a continuation of unsettled weather with rain at times for all throughout the next 10 days. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend remains for a sustained period of wet weather across the UK with a slow trend later perhaps towards drier conditions moving into Southern and SE parts later with no cold weather shown by any model. MY THOUGHTS The main concern illustrated by the models this morning is the rather persistent Low pressure lying slow moving over or near the UK with the cumulative effect of heavy rainfall events through the period covered by the models. All models usher in Low pressure from the NW and stalling close to the UK with each bringing strong winds and heavy rain and showers as result. With winds illustrated mainly from a South or SW quarter temperatures will not be an issue with average temperatures as a result on most days. The only chink of light this morning is the chance of a rise of pressure across the South later in week 2 with rather drier and relatively mild weather as a result should this verify. The ECM operational is the leader in this aspect which is a reversal on the Northern blocking that was shown by it yesterday and this morning's offering is closer to a GFS type solution though this solution is less supported by it's own ensemble pack. However, with so much volatility over the Atlantic and Low pressure steered towards the UK on a slightly further South Jet Stream than the norm predictions beyond a week should be treated tentatively at this time but as it stands this morning the UK is unlikely to experience any cold weather this side of the last week of the month as some of the building blocks hinted at early in the week have taken an early collapse and the shift towards rising pressure over parts of Europe has grown.

A bright morning following the first below zero temperature since March. Currently 5.7C with increasing cloud and a Southerly breeze. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A bright morning following the first below zero temperature since March. Currently 5.7C with increasing cloud and a Southerly breeze. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 5TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 6TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A weak ridge of High pressure will cross East over the UK today followed by a freshening Southerly wind and fronts from the West later tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier from the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast indicates an undulating Jet flow but generally at a position to the South of the UK over the coming week to 10 days before edging slowly north to be crossing West to East over the UK by two weeks time. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's operational run shows a sustained period of Atlantic Low pressure steaming in off the Atlantic to become slow moving across the UK over the coming week This means spells of rain and showers in temperatures generally close to average with strong winds too at times. Later in the run little changes with Low pressure areas just a little further North by then and therefore delivering the wettest and windiest conditions to the North and West with little change in temperature THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run suggests little difference from the operational in maintaining a large Low pressure complex being strung out across and around the British Isles for the majority of the two week period and delivering sustained periods of rain and showers at times to all in temperatures generally close to average though with some day to day variations. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles also complimentary to their other runs in respect to the favoured option being Low pressure coming in from the west frequently and becoming slow moving over or just to the west of the UK with much rain and showers in strong and blustery winds as a result. The Ensembles also shows a tendency to rise pressure slightly over Southern Britain late in the period though insufficiently enough to prevent rain at times still with temperatures close to average overall. UKMO. UKMO today shows an unstable Westerly flow following the depression being over the UK this weekend. This means the rain and showers over the weekend will continue next week though with Low pressure holding further to the NW than other models troughs alone will provide the rain and showers then with some drier intervals in between and close to average temperatures. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows a series of fronts and depressions moving gently East across the UK over the next 5 days with rain and showers at times in sometimes strong and blustery winds from between South and West. GEM GEM looks very disturbed this morning with a procession of Low pressure and fronts crossing the UK repeatedly over the next 10 days with showers and longer spells of rain in close to average temperatures. strong wnds too would be a feature of some of these depressions and fronts at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM too holds Low pressure in total control of the UK weather streaming in from the West and becoming slow moving near our shores. There would be spells of windy and wet weather alternating with brighter and more showery spells in average temperatures. JMA JMA continues the themes of the others feeding repeated Low pressure into the vicinity of the UK with rain and showers for all areas as a result in strong winds from a generally SW or cyclonic flow. ECM. ECM still favours slow moving depressions slowly filling in situ over the UK this wekend with rain and showers as a result before a preference towards sliding Low pressure down to the SW of the UK late in the run as pressure builds to the NE. This then brings the wettest weather to Southern and Western areas whereas the North and East would be drier and perhaps brighter and a little chillier. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles show strong support at Day 10 for a Low pressure belt to stretch from Greenland to the UK with pressure High to the North and NE. This closely mimics it's operational flow in as much as it indicates rising pressure to the North of the UK but maintained very unsettled weather for many parts of the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems strong agreement between the models that shows a lot of Low pressure close to the UK over the next few weeks with rain never far away from any one location for any great length of time. MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning illustrate a very unsettled and at times windy couple of weeks to come as Low pressure areas stream into the UK from the West and become slow moving while filling over our shores. There are of course many small differences in subtle details between the models day to day but they all illustrate a generally somilar pattern. So we are left to try and pick out small differences and one such one is from UKMO this morning in as much that at Day 6 it holds Low pressure well to the NW while the UK lies in an unstable Westerly flow under less Low pressure and while this means little differences in conditions at the surface as it stands it may be that if the Low holds further North than other models suggest it might not be as wet overall as some predict early next week. ECM also differs a little in bringing Low pressure right down to lie to the SW of the UK by Day 10 with SE winds as a result. Rain at times would continue towards the South and West whereas with pressure higher to the Northeast other areas could become drier and chilly feeling. However, on the grand scheme of things this is nit picking and the general message is for spells of rain and showers in average temperatures for the next couple of weeks with no widespread frost and fog issues likely under such cyclonic conditions. Then as we look beyond the term of the output this morning there is somewhat less desire to rise pressure to the North than has been hinted at recently with only ECM flying the flag of higher pressure in the Greenland areas in 10 days time and while this offers no immediate passage into the chance of anything wintry so early in the season it is what is needed to make the Azores High less influential and to stem the flow of deep Low pressure areas bulldozing their way over the Atlantic and to the North of the UK.

Cool and rather cloudy start to today but dry in a moderate North wind. Current data readings here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Cool and rather cloudy start to today but dry in a moderate North wind. Current data readings here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Some interesting synoptic patterns this morning and while not supporting deep cold and snow at the moment some building blocks are beginning to take shape but will it hold firm for Winter 2014-15. My daily thoughts can be found below. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY NOVEMBER 4TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 5TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A complex Low pressure area over the British Isles will fill and move away to the East over the next 24 hours. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. Perhaps becoming drier from the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast indicates that the flow keeps the UK under a Low pressure trough with the flow crossing the Atlantic and to the South of the UK before returning North over Europe. This structure remains in place through the reliable timeframe before the flow lifts North through the British Isles in a weakened and ill defined form in the less reliably correct second week. GFS Today's operational run shows Week 1 governed by several deep Low pressure areas moving SE from the NW Atlantic down over the UK with attendant rain and showers in tow. As they fill in situ next weekend It will feel chilly with some frost and fog possible at night. Through week 2 the operational indicates a rise of pressure displacing the Low with brighter and drier weather with mist and fog issues night and morning along with patchy frosts. Low pressure areas to the NW continue to deliver some rain at times to NW areas though and daytime temperatures would not be far from average if the pattern evolves as shown. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles show very similar evolutions through Week 1 and the start of week 2 with pressure becoming higher to the North or NE and lower to the SW at the start of Week 2. Throughout this period rain and showers along with rather cool conditions will remain in situ under UK based low pressure. Later in Week 2 the Atlantic winds up somewhat with a Low to the NW likely to maintain unsettled and breezy weather then with rain at times and it could become rather milder under more of a SW flow UK wide. UKMO. UKMO today shows a deep depression close to or over NW Britain filling up over the weekend and leaving a showery trough under slack winds at the start of next week. So a lot of squally showers to begin the weekend will be followed by winds falling light and showers becoming more coastal under temperatures probably a shade below average. The unsettled pattern at Day 6 still looks to hold sway as Low pressure to the NW looks like it could become more dominant later next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts shows our current UK based Low pressure filling up but being replaced by complex Low pressure and trough structures through the latter part of the week and weekend with temperatures close to or a little below average in variable winds. GEM GEM shows Low pressure the dominant factor in the UK weather as successive centres drift down from the NW to become slow moving close to western and NW Britain with fresh to strong winds from the SW or west maintaining a mix of rain and showers at times through to the end of the period covered by this morning's output at least. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the basic pattern of the other models too gradually raising pressure to the North in a weeks time and sending Low pressure down to be SW of the UK and bringing a chilly and rather cloudy ESE flow across the UK to end the run. ECM. ECM shows Low pressure areas feeding in from the NW over the UK with rain and showers at times in often rather cool conditions. It too raises pressure to the North of the UK as we move towards the end of it's run and with Low pressure by then to the South a chilly easterly flow develops with quite cloudy skies but by then not a lot of rain away from the far South and SW. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles show strong support at Day 10 for a Low pressure belt to stretch from Greenland to the UK with pressure High to the North and NE. This would indicate rain at times in the South and West while the North and East sees the driest and brightest conditions. It could be quite chilly in the SE or East flow over parts of the UK, especially the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems strong agreement between the models that shows a lot of Low pressure close to the UK slipping SE from the NW over or just to the West of the UK over the period with a slow pressure build to the North later. MY THOUGHTS The theme of Low pressure areas moving down towards and over the UK from the NW has strong support from all output this morning which if verifies will maintain a mix of sunshine and showers mixed with some longer spells of rain when it could become briefly milder. Amounts of rain look like being quite variable mostly dependant on how quickly rain bearing troughs clear East out of the UK but all areas look like they could see a fair amount at times. Longer term there seems a desire to rise pressure to the North of the UK with Low pressure becoming cut off either to the SW or South of the UK. This would dry things out for many but a chill East wind could take hold and while no cold weather as such is likely to develop from this so early in the season under quite a lot of cloud it could well feel chilly. Longer term still and it appears that the Atlantic could push such a block away into Europe to bring more wind and rain and slightly higher temperatures but at such a range in time this is purely speculative. Looking deep into upper air patterns at the moment and it does appear that a shift in patterning could suggest that a straightforward and mild Westerly flow through the early part of our Winter season is unlikely and the net result of such could bring about some cold snaps at times this side of Christmas and while predictions for the latter and main event part of Winter are still an ocean away patterns that set up early in the season can often be hard to shift as we well know from the long term blocking patterns that have ensued over all seasons in recent years. If I am right then it would be unlikely that large scale flooding such as witnessed in parts of the UK seen last Winter would occur but it could be that parts of the UK could see some snow quite early this Winter. However, I stress this is not a forecast but a mere observation of how upstream air pressure patterns could evolve if the current setup is maintained.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 3RD 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 4TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A complex Low pressure will cover Northern areas filling slowly later with a cyclonic and unstable airflow covering all of the UK. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally unsettled and rather windy at times with rain or showers. Temperatures look like staying generally quite close to average though it will feel rather chilly at times. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecats suggests the flow runs to the South of the UK for much of the next few weeks as a trough associated with Low pressure over or to the NW of the UK prevents it moving North at our latitude and longitude. GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure never far from the UK over the coming few weeks with the biggest feature being it's stalling nature over the UK having arrived from the NW. This is due to higher pressure than of late over Northern latitudes steering the Jet flow down to the South of the UK and making the UK fall on the cold side of the flow and keeping unsettled conditions with rain and strong winds at times and cold enough for some snow on Northern high ground and occasional incidences of frost and fog almost anywhere in the quieter and clearer overnight periods experienced at times. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles today maintain Low pressure in control of the weather over the next few weeks, generally with a central position to the NW of the UK and the UK lying under a trough from it. This means unsettled weather with rain at times and average temperatures as a result look the most likely outcome over the period with fog and frost probelems minimalistic overall but possible given any clear night skies and light winds. UKMO. UKMO today shows a deep depression just to the NW of the UK later this week which sinks slowly South to the West over the weekend as it fills slowly. This maintains an unsettled period of weather with rain and showers at times in sometimes windy weather with temperatures generally not far from average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts are fairly supportive of the raw data charts again this morning with the current Low pressure filling and moving away East midweek to be followed by a deep Low in the North Atlantic pushing troughs steadily East in time for the weekend. GEM GEM today follows a similar route to other models this week moving forward to take the Low to the West at the weekend on down into continental Europe as a cut off feature and setting up a chilly Easterly flow with some rain at times over the South though possibly somewhat drier over the North by then. NAVGEM NAVGEM too feeds complex Low pressure South to the west of the UK at the weekend and like UKMO keeps unsettled weather with rain at times in a cyclonic flow with temperatures remaining close to average. ECM. ECM keeps the UK in a broad trough over the next 10 days with Low pressure feeding down from the NW over the UK blocked by very High pressure over NE Europe. As a result unsettled weather with rain or showers looks most probable and with temperatures at best close to average and probably a little below at times. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles show a predomiante trend towards keeping Low pressure just to the NW of Ireland with a broad trough down over the UK ensuring the most likely scenario being a continuation of unsettled weather with rain or showers at times in temperatures close to the seasonal average. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There seems strong agreement between the models that shows a lot of Low pressure close to the UK slipping SE from the NW over or just to the West of the UK over the period. MY THOUGHTS The current unsettled pattern that has become established over the last few days looks like being maintained for the foreseeable future. It also looks that the Jet stream flow driving our weather will also continue to stay quite well South near the Greenwich meridian keeping the UK on the cold side of the flow and ensuring that temperatures are held quite close to average and even quite chilly at times. Through the two weeks there looks like being various periods of rain and showers and some quieter interludes when fog and frost might develop locally. Amounts of rain could become quite large should any stalling fronts get hung up over the UK and this looks quite feasible given that there is a large High pressure block to the NE looking likely for much of the period. Nevertheless being so early in the season there is no particularly cold weather shown as yet and the weather will just feel typically Autumnal for most with the unseasonable warmth and settledness of the weather of last week a distant memory now.

Dry and bright but chillier this morning at 6.8C in a light SW wind.. Live data here: http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Dry and bright but chillier this morning at 6.8C in a light SW wind.. Live data here: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A cloudy and damp morning with sporadic bursts of quite heavy rain. Still mild though at 13.1C and a pressure of 1004.0mbs. Current conditions here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A cloudy and damp morning with sporadic bursts of quite heavy rain. Still mild though at 13.1C and a pressure of 1004.0mbs Live conditions here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Dry sunny and very mild to start today here. Current conditions for all parameters here. http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Dry sunny and very mild to start today here. Current conditions for all parameters here. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY OCTOBER 31ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 1ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION.A series of cold fronts will cross steadily East across the UK over the next 48 hours displacing the very mild SSW flow across the UK today. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler for all in more unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times. Possibly drier and milder in the South again later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast from GFS shows the flow moving South of the UK over the coming two to three days where it is maintained for a time. It is then shown to migrate slowly north again across the UK through Week 2. GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure gradually slipping SE down over the UK early next week and on down into the Meditteranean bringing a period of cooler and wetter conditions across the UK. A ridge then follows which as it moves SE too brings the UK back into a changeable Westerly pattern with rain at times chiefly in the North and West and temperatures becoming average or perhaps above again later with deep Low pressure close to the NW at times maintaining relatively mild and changeable and at times windy spells of weather through to the end of the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. A very similar sequence of events to that of the operational model is shown this morning with if anything rather more potency to the Westerly feed with wind and rain at times through Week 2 for all areas. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure slipping away SE from the UK early next week taking it's chilly mix of sunshine and showers with it. A ridge following SE behind is shown to give an interlude of dry and bright weather perhaps with frost and fog briefly before Atlantic Westerlies from deepening Low pressure to the NW engulf the UK later next week with rain at times especially in the North and West. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts illustrate well the expected passage of complex Low pressure SE across the UK early next week with attendant showery weather. Before that happens a series of fronts crossing East and SE brings an end to the current mild feed of SSW winds. GEM GEM today maintains an unsettled look under a broad Westerly flow to the South of deep Low pressure crossing East to the North later next week maintaining the sometimes wet and windy spells of weather introduced over this weekend and early next week from the aforementioned Low pressure area slipping SE. NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains a broad and unstable Westerly flow later next week as Low pressure remains anchored to the North of the UK keeping all areas in a mix of drier and brighter spells mixed with cloudier rainier ones. ECM. ECM takes a different slant as it promotes the return of High pressure from the South later next week and beyond drying things up in the South as well as returning temperatures to above average levels. The North and West will remain in a mild and moist SW flow with rain at times from troughs crossing East. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles today show the UK bathed in generally a mild SW flow. Up until today the 10 Day mean has shown the UK under a trough from Low pressure to the NW but gradually this is shown to have backed further West on successive runs and makes for a backing of winds over the UK towards the South and feeding mild air up across the UK around a large Southern Russian High pressure and another one near the Azores, the worst possible scenario for introducing any cold weather to the UK anytime soon as the Jet blows relentlessy harmlessly well North of the desired position. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the models on the 7-14 day prospects shown between the outputs this morning though the effects from High pressure to the South building again somewhat later remain strong from ECM. MY THOUGHTS Once again this morning the models appear to be struggling over what to do with the synoptics once next week's well assured depression now clears SE away from the UK early next week. The general consensus appears to be the desire to draw back in Atlantic winds across the British Isles following a collapsing ridge but that's where the complications arise. The majority seem assured that there will be enough energy in the flow following the ridge off the Atlantic across all areas to ensure unsettled conditions with rain at times, as always heaviest and most prolific towards the North and West. However, as yet there are some thoughts towards the Jet flow returning North of the UK and pressure rising to the South enough to bring Southern Britain at least into more settled and dare I say it rather mild weather again. ECM is the flagship in this proposal this morning and in my opinion might not be far from the truth come the day. However, it is very unlikely that any shift into this pattern will return temperatures anything like where we are currently with rather cloudy, mild and benign weather much more likely. It may be of course that should this pressure rise not occur that we all feel the full effect of the Atlantic Westerly with rain, gales showers and sunshine all common in average November temperatures for the next two weeks. What all models do show is no shift towards anything remotely wintry at this very early stage of the season with a mix of factors including Jet profile, the persistent Azores High pressure belt stretching into Europe at times keeping the UK on the warm side of things being the main factors in assuring this doesn't happen at the moment.

Back to being very mild today with a light southerly breeze, cloudy skies and temperatures already at 15.0C. Incredible.

Back to being very mild today with a light southerly breeze, cloudy skies and temperatures already at 15.0C. Incredible.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY OCTOBER 30TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY OCTOBER 31ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION.A very mild SSW flow following a warm front North away from Northern Britain will persist through today and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler for all in more unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times. Possibly drier in the South again later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream forecast from GFS shows a very complex outlook this morning basically hinging on an undulating flow across and to the North of the UK over the coming two weeks. After ebbing and flowing in strength too the flow eventally settles well North again late in the run between Scotland and Iceland. GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure gradually slipping SE down over the UK early next week and on down into the Meditteranean bringing a period of cooler and wetter conditions across the UK. A ridge then follows which as it moves SE too brings the UK back into a changeable Westerly pattern with rain at times chiefly in the North and West and temperatures becoming average or perhaps above again later with deep Low pressure well to the NW and High pressure not far from the South. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are supportive of it's operational in the first week but drift off towards more High pressure based weather over week 2 as it drifts from the UK across Europe leaving a ridge back West across the UK supporting dry and bright conditions with much mist and fog likely should it evolve as shown. A breakdown from the SW is hinted at Day 15. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure collapsing SE down the North Sea early next week with a rather chilly North flow with some rain being replaced by dry weather as a ridge folows down across the UK from the NW before midweek. Atlantic fronts behind the ridge look like they would affect the UK later in the week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show warm sector conditions dominant again over the UK over the next 48 hours before a series of fronts moving in from the West dilute the warmth away gradually with rain and cooler winds at times for all by the early days of next week. GEM GEM today maintains the theme much more widely supported yesterday of a drift into deeply unsettled and chilly weather next week as two deep depressions cross the UK from the Atlantic with rain and gales at times for all mixed with brighter and cooler spells with showers, wintry on Northern hills. High pressure is then shown to ridge in by Day 10 and with cold air in place some hard frosts are possible. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the unsettled phase moving down from the NW at the weekend and start to next week a temporary phase as a strong ridge moving SE across Britain from the NW midweek brings more settled weather for a time before Atlantic westerly winds and rain move back in from the West by this time next week. ECM. ECM looks a lot like NAVGEM by this time next week with the well documented shift into cool and unsettled weather early in the week being interrupted by a drier period with some frost under a collapsing ridge midweek and a return to Atlantic Westerlies by the end of the week. With the Azores High making something of a shift towards Southern Britain and a Jet Stream moving back North mild air looks like making inroads across the UK once more most prolific as usual in the South and East. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles today show a rise in pressure across the UK from what the 10 Day mean Charts were showing yesterday and while the pattern of Low pressure to the NW and High to the South and SW is maintained with rain at times as a result it does reflect the trend of bringing our old friend the Azores High back into play later next week and pushing the Jet flow slowly back North which would mean only one thing and that is continuing mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the models on the 7-14 day prospects shown between the outputs this morning though the effects from High pressure to the South building again somewhat later have strengthened. MY THOUGHTS Despite what appears to be a pattern change early next week as the Jet Stream finally dives South and cool North Atlantic winds together with Low pressure and rain all combine to give us all a feel of Autumn proper for several days it never looks like lasting all that long as by far the majority of output show a following ridge down across the UK at the middle of next week opening the door to the Jet Stream returning North and pressure to rebuild from the South to set up another spell of mild WSW winds around Low pressure to the NW and High to the SE or South. While it is unlikely to return as mild as it is currently it will limit the amounts of rain from Low pressure to the NW affecting parts of Southern Britain with a fair amount of dry and benign conditions as a result. GEM is one exception this morning which does show the deeply unsettled picture shown more widely across the UK next week and beyond while the GFS Ensembles go one step further with High pressure with a centre straddling the UK on it's way to Europe with fog at night becoming a hazard should it evolve. So all in all still a lot of confusion in the models going forward with a range of options on offer. What doesn't look likely though is anything harsh in weather terms be it from excess rain, wind, frost, ice or snow and my own feeling is that while there is a propensity to maintain High pressure near the Azores and mainland Europe and a Jet Stream profile maintaining it's preference towards Northern latitudes then the current generally mild theme is likely to persist with just varying degrees of mildness likely from one period to another and only very short cooler spells when frost and fog become briefly possible. Of course this is just my opinion and I may well be wrong but from a cold point of view all pointers currently indicated in the models don't support cold weather being anything more than transitory across the UK for the foreseeable future.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 29TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY OCTOBER 30TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cold front slow moving near the South Coast will return North as a warm front later today with another very mild SSW flow developing over the UK tomorrow behind it. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming cooler for all in more unsettled and sometimes windy weather with rain at times. Possibly drier in the South again later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream across Northern Britain currently will weaken for a time and ridge North over the UK before returning South in a trough form (U Shape) early next week. It then becomes more West to East in flow across the UK moving North late in the run. GFS Today's operational run shows Low pressure moving NE close to NW Scotland over the coming weekend with increasingly unsettled weather already over the North finding it's way down across Southern Britain too over the weekend. A trough connected to this depression then slips SE over the UK early next week introducing cooler air for a time. The general theme thereafter is for a North/South split to setup again with generally mild WSW winds and rain at times across the UK, heaviest in the North with the driest and mildest weather towards the South and East. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles feature this pattern too with if anything more of an attack of High pressure into Southern Britain at the end of the run bringing quiet and dry weather further North across Britain by then with no doubt some fog and frost patches at night in an otherwise mild pattern. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure exiting NE over Scandinavia early next week with colder North winds around a trough back SW from it's centre over the UK eventually forming a secondary Low near SW Wngland by Tuesday. As a result all areas would become unsettled and colder with rain at times early next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show another marked and unseasonably mild warm sector developing over the UK later this week between Low pressure to the NW and High pressure over Europe. The Atlantic fronts then are shown to make inroads across the UK at the weekend with cloud and rain bringing a steady drop in temperatures over the mild South then. GEM GEM today shows a steadily deteriorating pattern into colder and more unsettled weather for all areas following the mild pattern over the next two or three day. This means that as Low pressure under 1000mbs covers the entire UK for much of next week from this run and with it's positioning over or towards the East of the UK colder air is filtered down across the UK at times with resultant strong winds and rain for all. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows the unsettled phase moving down from the NW at the weekend and start to next week a temporary phase as a strong ridge moving SE across Britin from the NW midweek brings more settled weather back with mist, fog and patchy frost at night in the South with a mild SW flow following across the NW. ECM . ECM shows much more depth to the more unsettled and colder conditions next week as Low pressure slips down across the UK from the NW next week and is slow to clear the East. As a result further deep Atlantic low pressure is able to join the main low complex from the Atlantic to set up a deep Low close to the NW with strong winds and rain at times for all in much colder conditions continuing later next week. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles today show a typical Autumn pattern and while not as harsh with the extent of Low pressure as it's operational it does show Low pressure to the North of the UK, High pressure over the Azores and a broad and unstable westerly flow across the UK bringing spells of rain and showers to all areas with temperatures close to average. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There are still mixed messages from the models on the 7-14 day prospects shown between the outputs this morning. MY THOUGHTS There seems good agreement this morning that after the upcoming warm phase across Southern Britain the pattern supporting this recurring theme may well be broken by early next week as a change in Jet profile allows Low pressure to be driven SE across the UK with much colder air entrained and outbreaks of rain, showers and strong winds. In the term beyond that things become much more confused between the output with reasonable support for a North/South split developing in response to the Jet Stream returning North again and alowing pressure to rise from the South once more. This would bring a mild West or SW flow with rain at times to the North and west while the South and East of Britain see mild and drier conditions. However, this is not a definitive given as there is also some support for a continued much colder and unsettled theme remaining in place for many areas as ECM (including it's ensembles ) hold the Jet Flow much further South and feeds strong and unstable Westerly winds over all areas throughout and with the UKMO 144hr chart looking as if it could follow the ECM route none of these solutions should be discounted. So in essence I think I can reliably say that Autumn proper could well be felt across Southern Britain next week as colder air temperatures along with stronger winds and frequent bursts of rain and showers enhance the feel of chill while the North also feels somewhat cooler while maintaining the unsettled feel these areas have felt for some while now. The differences in solutions all hinge on the Jet Stream forecasts and it is this that determines how the models look this morning with the Euros preferring to hold the flow further South while GFS wants to push it back North more quickly after it's diversion South early next week. We will have to see how this pattern develops in the coming days.

A cloudy and damp start today with some light rain. Some of the cooler air to the North has just about managed to filter in here with 9.5C here currently in a light NE breeze.

A cloudy and damp start today with some light rain. Some of the cooler air to the North has just about managed to filter in here with 9.5C here currently in a light NE breeze.