Gibby

Cloudy but dry this morning, a theme that will probably repeated regularly for the rest of the week. 7.3C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY NOVEMBER 18TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 19TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A light Easterly airflow across the UK will slowly veer SE as a front approaches Western Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally less unsettled for a time with a lot of cloudy but dry weather, perhaps becoming more unsettled and windy again later from the West. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a weak and disrupted pattern over Europe as the Jet flow exits the USA, crosses the Atlantic and is diverted both North and South of mainland Europe with the UK lying in the Western periphery of this pattern. Little overall change is shown to this disrupted pattern as far as Europe is concerned. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a persistent block of High pressure over Eastern Europe with strong ridging towards Scandinavia persisting through much of Week 1 and preventing and major Low pressure from crossing Britain. However, some ingress of this is made into the UK delivering rain to some later in the first week before High pressure builds briefly from the SW with clearer and colder weather for a time ahead of strong winds and rain which evemtually is shown to power through as the High block collapses to the East. At the end of the run a strong WSW flow over the UK bring spells of rain in relatively mild weather for all. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar to the operational in Week 1 with only small but subtle differences in sequential and specific details before it diverges away from the operational in Week 2. High pressure on this run fails to decline to the East and a Scandinavian High pressure block is shown to develop later. As a result Atlantic Low pressure is diverted to the SW of the UK opening the door to a much colder wedge of air to move West across the UK from Europe. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles lie much closer to the operational camp as the benign pattern of the first week with a little rain at times gives way to a more aggressive and deep Low pressure attack from off the Atlantic later next week. This then delivers spells of rain and very strong winds for all mixed with spells of squally showers and rather colder weather with snow on Northern hills. UKMO UKMO today shows a trough crossing slowly East over the UK at the weekend with some rain for all before clearer and fresher air crosses the UK under a strong ridge from the SW. Frost and fog could develop for a time before SW winds increase in the NW late in the run heralding a new and stronger push of unsettled and windy weather into the UK next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of weakening occluded fronts slowly moving into the UK and decaying over the next 4-5 days. A little rain from these is likely in the West especially but a lot of dry and benign weather is shown in a slack SE flow with relatively trouble free temperature levels. GEM GEM this morning shows the stand off continuing between High pressure to the East and later NE warding off the Atlantic low pressure with a steadily strengthening SE flow delivering rather cloudy weather but a lot of dry weather too apart from a few brushes from Atlantic fronts and resultant rainfall in the far West and SW. Towards the end of the run pressure falls and with Low pressure engaging both from the East and West some rain is likely for all in progressively lower temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning looks a lot like UKMO as it brings a ridge up from the SW over the weekend following a weakening front having previously moved East over the UK. After a little rain from this the weather would clear and become fresher with some frost and fog at night for England and Wales before SW winds and cloud invade from the NW later. ECM ECM this morning takes the road towards much more unsettled weather in the latter stages of it's run as Low pressure tmbles SE across the UK later bringing wet and windy conditions at times and it would feel colder too with some snow possible on Northern hills. in the meantime we continue with a benign spell of weather under mild SE winds ad a weak cold front crossing East at the weekend with just a little rain for all at some point before a ridge from the SW introduces a change to fresher air and the subsequent aforementioned unsettled and windy weather later. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run this morning's indicate a trend towards Low pressure gradually becoming more dominant again later next week as Low pressure out to the NW pushes South or SW winds across the UK with troughs delivering occasional rain from troughs in relatively mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There still seems a lot of confusion between the models as we move through the second half of the output with the threat of deep Low pressure near the UK later just holding sway in trend this morning. MY THOUGHTS There are marked differences still being shown in the second part of this morning's output as models struggle to decide on how to if at all they see the demise of the persistent block of High pressure over Eastern Europe. While this is there the passage of our normal West to East flow of depressions and fronts is thwarted and instead a benign and quiet spell of weather under a SE flow is maintained. However, they do all agree that a front will bring a shift in emphasis away from that High to the East, at least for a time as after the front a ridge of High pressure from the SW brings fresher and cleaner air across from the West perhaps with a night or two when frost and fog patches might develop. It's from that point early next week that differences in evolution emerge with the biased opinion leaning more towards Low pressure moving down over or close to the UK with strong winds and rain for all mixed up with more showery and chilly spells when some snow could fall on northern hills. This theme is supported by the GFS operational and Ensemble run together with the ECM operatational while GEM and to some extent the GFS Parallel run show Low pressure further to the Southwest engaging a colder pool of air from the East which could in theory bring some cold weather across the UK from the East but at this stage temperatures still don't look low enough to produce anything other than cold rain away from the highest ground in the destabilising airmass though the theme will catch the eye for those looking for colder weather. The ECM Ensembles which have been very volatile of late shows a sharpening of the trough stretching from a point SW of Iceland down across the UK and as a result of this it means a much more unsettled and potentially windy spell of weather being the most evolution likely after week 1 when taking all this morning's output as a whole.

A dull morning with steady rainfall currently. Mild enough but feels cold in the wet and gloom. 7.9C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A dull morning with steady rainfall currently. Mild enough but feels cold in the wet and gloom. 7.9C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 17TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 18TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slack Low pressure and troughs over Southern England will slip South and fill with a light SE flow developing from tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming generally less unsettled for a time with a lot of cloudy but dry weather, Perhaps becoming more unsettled again later from the West. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a split flow this side of the Atlantic as the Southern arm is deflected South to the west of the UK while a detached northern arm moves East over the Arcctic Circle above Europe. This complex pattern persists with the later feed taking the Southern arm into a single flow running NE to the West of the UK late in week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a persistent block of High pressure over Eastern Europe preventing Atlantic Low pressure from running it's normal course across the UK with it's normally attendant wind and rain. instead only Western Britain look like seeing occasional rain as fronts buffer the block to the East with a lot of dry and benign conditions for the East. It is not until late in the run where a more concerted push of intense Low pressure to the NW finally nudges the block further South and allows a windier SW flow to drive rain and strong winds across all areas in average temperatures. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows less dominance from the European High later this week as Atlantic troughs push further across the UK than is shown from the operational meaning all areas will see some rain by next weekend. Pressure then builds from the South for a time with a quieter drier interlude before the Atlantic pushes back again towards the end of the run with more wind and rain late in the period. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles show more bias towards it's parallel run this morning as it builds High pressure North across the UK in a weeks time after a brief wetter spell around the weekend as a trough moves slowly East over the UK. Some frost and fog might occur for a time before the second half of the run sees a rebuild of intense European High pressure with a benign and quiet NE airflow developing for all under a strong ridge over Scotland with any rain restricted to the far South and SE from Low pressure over nearby Europe. UKMO UKMO today shows the coming weekend becoming more unsettled as Low pressure moves slowly NE across the North carrying troughs of Low pressure over the UK with temperatures close to average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current complex Low pressure near Southern Britain giving way to a SE airflow with troughs across Western and SW Britain filling in situ midweek with a new advancement of troughs towards the far West by the weekend. GEM GEM this morning shows the block of High pressure to the East of Britain maintained over the next 10 days with repetitive attempts of troughs coming up against it from the Atlantic over Western Britain and slowly crossing the UK while weakening. This means the West will see occasional rain early and later in the period possibly extending to other areas at times later in the period as the block slips a little further South and weakens somewhat. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows similar evolutions to the GFS Ensembles with the stand off continuing between Atlantic Low pressure to the West and High pressure to the East and later South. Generally mild SE winds will carry benign and quiet weather for many in average temperatures through the rest of this week and into the weekend with just the chance of a frostier night or too as the new High from the South moves in just under a week from now. ECM ECM this morning also shows the UK weather dominated by the stand off between High pressure over Eastern Europe and Low to the West over the Atlantic. The resultant SE flow will deliver benign and quiet weather through the latter stages of this week with a band of rain crossing slowly East towards the weekend decaying as it does. Then a decidedly sharp dip into unsettled, windy and wet weather is shown by Day 10 as deep Atlantic Low pressure slips ESE towards Britain with strong winds and heavy raine extending to all by then. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run this morning's indicate a trend towards Low pressure gradually becoming more dominant again later next week as Low pressure out to the NW pushes South or SW winds across the UK with troughs delivering occasional rain from troughs in relatively mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show High pressure over Europe maintaining benign and stable weather across the UK in average temperatures but with some inroads of Low pressure from the West likely late in the period. MY THOUGHTS High pressure over Europe remains the dominating feature of the weather shown by the models over the next few weeks. It's positioning and orientation is such that cold weather in this part of the world is unlikely as the mainland of Western Europe remains on the mild side of average given the time of year and the drag of mild SE winds from Southern latitudes exacerbates this fact through this week. The net result for the UK is a lot of cloudy but relatively dry weather very common though a little rain from decaying troughs from the West hitting the High block is likely at times through the next week. There will be a noticeable SE wind at times too which will prevent any clearer night skies from delivering any widespread frost and fog with the net difference between night and day temperatures being narrow. Then as we move into the second half of this morning's output the trend appears to be for the block to the East to slowly loosen it's grip with the chance of a more concerted push of Atlantic domination developing slowly. ECM goes for a deep Low just to the West by Day 10 with wind and rain for all while many other runs offer something similar if in a more diluted form. What no model shows is any guaranteed shift towards anything majorly cold for the UK with temperatures never far from average if not slightly above. In my own opinion I think the theory of a change to a more Atlantic based wind and rain type pattern to end the month is a strong one and what's more I can eventually see the slack Jet through this week strengthening to the West and North later overriding the block over Europe and pushing it South later next week. While this may break us out of the blocked pattern the danger from this is that High pressure could become High from a belt near the Azores to the Meditteranean with a marked broad and mild SW flow developing across the UK to start December. This is my theory based on weak signals at present but the building blocks to this scenario are shown in more than one FI chart I have seen this morning so it is a possibility.

Grey and overcast ut dry at the moment. Typical November really. Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Grey and overcast ut dry at the moment. Typical November really. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY NOVEMBER 17TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. Slack low pressure continues to lie close to Southern England with a trough moving West over England and Wales tonight. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming generally less unsettled with a lot of dry and bright weather with just occasional rain. Temperatures near or a little above average. Perhaps becoming somewhat colder later THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a very complex and uncertain pattern over our part of the Northern hemisphere over the coming two weeks. In general there will be a tendency for there to be a split flow, one flowing East over the Arctic while a complex Southern arm undulates and disrupts towards the west and SW of the UK. Later in week 2 the flow simplifies to a single flow, blowing strongly across Greenland and Iceland before travelling SE over Scandinavia. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning indicates High pressure becoming the dominant force affecting the UK weather over the two weeks. This starts the period over Eastern Europe extending a ridge across Scandinavia and the UK later this week before being reinforced by a new centre close to NW Brirain slipping South later. This wards off any major Atlantic attack though some fronts will make inroads from the West at first and the North later with a little rain. Temperatures will remain close to or a little above average to begin with but will probably fall off with time as the incidence of clearer skies permits more in the way of frost and fog at night to develop, slow to clear by day. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows a similar evolution in the short term with a gradual transition towards High pressure based dry if rather cloudy weather for most once this weeks weakening troughs move out of the way later. In Week 2 High pressure forms a new centre close to the UK drifting NE and allowing a colder feed of Easterly winds later which coupled with lower pressure developing brings rain to the South eventually extending to all areas later as the High to the East recedes away. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles show slightly less domination from the High over Europe this week with a slack if rather mild SE flow for many and occasional troughs moving North over the west of the UK maintaining ccasional rainfall here while the East stays largely dry. Then a more concerted push of rain and attendant Low pressure clears East and allows a new High to form over Northern Britain setting up a large UK based High pressure system for much of the rest of the run with colder and perhaps frosty and foggy conditions developing thereafter. UKMO. UKMO today shows a slack SE flow later this week strengthening later as Low pressure and fronts approach the UK from the West by next weekend. East is best being the motto this week as weak fronts continue to affect these Western parts at times especially at first and again later while the East sees a lot of dry and cloudy, benign type conditions in temperatures overall close to if not a little above average. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show the current complex Low pressure near Southern britain slowly giving way and filling as a benign ESE flow develops around High pressure to the East. Troughs continue to afflict the West at times even late in the week with occasional rainfall here whereas many Eastern areas become largely dry after tomorrow. GEM GEM this morning shows a more simplified pattern reolving around High pressure over Europe and/or over Scandinavia. A SE flow will develop across the UK over the coming days and persist through to the end of the run. With pressure rising substantuially this week a lot of dry if rather cloudy weather is likely before pressure falls again towards the end of the run as Low pressure edges in from the west to bring rain back slowly East late in the period. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a very similar pattern with the UK under SE winds with the driest and brightest weather in the East while weak troughs continue to affect the West at times with occasional rain spreading further east towards next weekend. ECM ECM this morning shows High pressure taking over control of the UK weather though it might take a while for the full effects to be shown to all areas as weakening troughs through this week continue to buffer the West of the UK at times. Later on High pressure shifts from being to the East to being to the North of the UK with cooler and frosty air developing in situ under clear skies in the North and a freshening NE breeze across the South where cloud and rain from Low pressure over East France and Switzerland could threaten the SE for a time. THE ECM ENSEMBLES There is strong support for a shift towards High pressure based weather to develop across the UK around a centre of High pressure which is most favoured to end up centred close to Scandinavia. Weather at the surface will depend on how much cloud is trapped within it's circulation but with a light Easterly drift we have to look towards somewhat cooler conditions with a risk of frost and fog by night in places. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to grow towards rising pressure across the UK with a shift towards drier conditions and though possibly cooler never cold. MY THOUGHTS The models have really shifted away from the unsettled and Atlantic dominated wet and windy pattern shown a few days back to show a cross model agreement on High pressure to the East of the UK affecting all areas with time, though changes in the far West will be slow and erratic and hiccups could give a little rain at times to all areas too as the High pressure shuffles around. there also is some support for a new centre develop near Northern Britain with perhpas more in the way of frost and fog for us if that pattern evolves. However, in the short term a benign east or SE flow will maintain average if not slightly above temperatures but with a lot of cloud likely frost and fog by night looks limited in the short term. The one thing of note this morning is that despite a lot of High pressure around the UK and the NE there is little cold air to tap into but the caveat being that with High pressure in the positions shown a slight drift further North of the High pressure could allow something cold to drift South over Europe and advect West towards the UK. This is hinted at by some output but doesn't develop on this occasion but this could become a feature of the output over coming days if the High pressure support continues to grow between the models. So in the short term some relief from the wet pattern of stalled Low pressure to something not exciting but different in weather terms to look forward to with dry and rather cloudy weather likely to form a large part of many forecasts later this week in temperatures close to or a little above average before falling off somewhat later. At least the water table should start to fall slowly with the impact of less new rainfall becoming significantly welcome.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY NOVEMBER 16TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION .A slack Low pressure lies to the South and west of the UK with light cyclonic airflow across the UK persisting. A slow moving trough remains slow moving over NE Scotland. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining largely unsettled with rain at times, especially in the NW while Southern and Eastern parts become drier and mild at times THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a very variable pattern over the coming two weeks with a split in the flow developing. One arm is then shown to cross east at high latitudes north of the UK while anorther arm lies to the South. Both arms of the flow interject at times from a ridging and troughing pattern and bows quite strong at times. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows the general shift of synoptics to change from low pressure to the South and West of Britain over the next week to more like Low pressure to the North and West with a slow shift of rain emphasis moving more towards the North and West by next weekend in slack winds generally. In Week 2 High pressure crosses the UK with a fine dry and possibly foggy period before Low pressure returns down over the UK from the Atantic with outbreaks of rain and showers for all once more in near to average temperatures. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows an earlier influence of High pressure from the East and South through next week with dry and fine weatehr arriving from midweek with mist and fog patches at night and patchy frost too in mild South or SE flow by day. Through the second half of the run the pattern of High to the East and SE collapses as Low pressure moves in from the West bringing a return to wet and windy weather in average temperartures to end the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles show High pressure from the East influential to the UK from midweek for the rest of the run, suitably positioned at first to ptomote dry and fine weather from soon after midweek with a mild Southerly flow. Through Week 2 the orientation of the High to the East changes to allow firstly colder air to spread west over the UK and unsettled weather from low pressure to arrive at the end of the period with cold rain and wind moving up from the South then. UKMO. UKMO today shows Low pressure to the SW midweek with a band of rain and fresh breezes on Wednesday giving way to benign and dry conditions later in the week as the Low fills leaving a slack SE flow and rather cloudy but dry conditions across the UK in average temperatures. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a complex structure of filling Low pressure ambling around the UK over the next 72 hours or so before a simplified pattern develops towards midweek as a more defined trough crosses the UK slowly from the West. The weather remains largely unsettled with rain or showers at times through the period in relatively light winds and average temperatures. GEM GEM also shows a similar pattern to the rest next week with High pressure to the SE maintaining largely relatively mild conditions with the shift of influence from Atlantic fronts gradually becoming more focused towards Northern and Western Britain while the South and East see less rain and some drier interludes in between. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows relatyively mild conditions too next week with occasional rain from weakening troughs before it shows a High pressure ridge developing over the South from the SW next weekend. ECM ECM this morning shows pressure building steadily next week as with the other models the shift of the Atlantic influence moves more towards the North and West from midweek. Pressure will then become quite high from a belt stretching from the Azores to Europe with a long fetch SW flow developing over the UK and much of Northern Europe keeping any threat of cold air a long way from the UK and keeping relatively dry and benign conditions over the South and East of the UK with time. THE ECM ENSEMBLES Not issued at time of publication of this report. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to grow towards rising pressure to the East and South of the UK with the rain and wind influence becoming most prolific to the North and West of the UK rather than elsewhere. MY THOUGHTS The models are now settling on a theme of keeping cold away from the UK as rising pressure to the South and East of the UK becomes dominant from soon after the middle of the coming week. While this news will not be welcome to those looking for something cold and wintry it will be very good news for those saturated areas that lie across western britain currently as it looks as though once we move out of the midweek period there will be much less rainfall for those areas affected and this will allow at least a window of opportunity for some drainage of river courses etc. As indicated earlier it doesn't look like becoming cold and frosty under this high pressure influence as the positioning of it is likely todraw some mild air North across the UK for a time and later a mild and cloudy SW flow seems more than likely. Though fog could become a problem if any clear skies prevail overnight frost will remain patchy at worst as cloud and upper air temperatures remain above average. There is a chance that the Atlantic influence will return to all areas late in the period as the High to the East or South collapses but at this range I wouldn't bank on it happening in any shown way this morning. So in a nutshell there seems little sign of Autumn 2014 going out on a cold note and the season once more will end up being a very mild and at times wet one with frosts rather less than average and day and night temperatures as a whole over the three months being well above average at times.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY NOVEMBER 15TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large depression covers the Atlantic ocean with the centre filling slowly and drifting towards SW England over the weekend. An active trough will slowly clear NE to lie over NE Scotland tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining largely unsettled with rain at times, heavy in places, especially later in the NW and coupled with spells of strong winds in near to average temperatures for all. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast is shown to weaken over the coming days splitting as one arm blows East across the Arctic while the other remains diffuse to the South of the UK. The Southern arm then becomes the dominant force again later next week, crossing the UK before moving further North around our neck of the hemispher to lie North of the UK at the end of the run. GFS OPERATIONAL The general message from the GFS operational this morning is for mild and changeable weather maintained across the UK after a quieter chillier period early next week as Low pressure becomes slack across the South. A much stronger Westerly flow develops thereafter with gales in the North and West with rain, heavy at times too for all though as pressure is shown to build to the South for a while at the start of Week 2 the South could see drier and mild conditions for a time. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is shown to become much more dominat across the UK in Week 2 as after a week of unsettled and sometimes wet and windy weather replaced by dry and fine weather in light winds. A warm High is shown to engulf the UK in Week 2 with cloudy and misty conditions likely at the surface. Then very late in the run more unsettled and colder weather looks poised to come down from the North with rain and wind in tow moving North to South. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are very similar to the operational run in sequence and trend with the run ending in High pressure having built across the UK with some frost and fog patches replacing the wet and windy Atlantic based weather in the preceding days. UKMO. UKMO today continues to show another Low pressure out to the West through the middle of next week filling slowly again as winds stay largely light and from a mild Southerly quarter. Rain will occur on occasion but with some drier spells too especially over the East where some parts could stay dry with some fog at night. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a gradually slacker airflow developing across the UK as a parent Low to the West drifts towards the South of the UK and fills by the start of next week. Troughs to the NE persist and showery ones near the coasts of the South will continue to blight the far South in slowly less mild weather with fog in places. GEM GEM also shows a sustained period of slacker winds as Low pressure areas to the West fill as they move SE towards the SW of the UK with a light South or SE flow likely with rain and showers more restricted to near an old trough close to the NE at first and the far South throughout. Late in the run the Atlantic ratchets up a few gears with stronger winds and rain spreading steadily East across the UK by Day 10. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows changeable conditions over the coming week as the High pressure block to the NE collapses later with a shift in distribution of rain and wind moving more towards the NW later as a SW flow develops across the UK in fairly mild conditions. ECM ECM this morning has again shifted from it's last run with the unsettled and slack pressure gradient over the UK through much of next week being replaced by a real bullseye of a storm system over the UK by next weekend delivering severe gales and heavy rain for all as a result, all this following the collapse of the High pressure block to the NE by then. This then sets up a strong Westerly flow thereafter with further troughs carrying rain and strong winds quickly East over all areas at times in average temperatures. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles point to a strong chance of a deep depression lying close to SW Iceland in 10 days time with a strong SW airflow covering the UK in what would produce rain at times for all in relatively mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend continues to show variations on a theme of basically mild and changeable weather in a largely Westerly flow with rain at times, the emphasis of which shifts more towards the North and West with time. MY THOUGHTS The main message delivered from the models this morning continue to suggest that the UK will see little if any particularly cold conditions over the next few weeks as the basic flow of winds remain from either Southerly or Westerly latitudes. In the short term the High pressure block still dominant to the NE prevent deep Low pressure areas crossing the UK from the West with attendant fronts and rain stalling over the UK and delivering the most unsettled conditions toward the South and West. Later in the period most output suggests the block to the NE collapses and pressure may become higher towards a position South or East of the UK shifting the emphasis of rain towards the North and West but also permitting more mobility across the North Atlantic as a stronger Jet flow is likely to lie across the UK by then powering up deep Low pressure areas to the NW with rain and gales for all at times as a result. The position of any higher pressure to the South of the UK will be indicative of how much of the wind and rain from these Lows affect the South but a more certain fact is that if High pressure does develop there it will be mild for all and once developed can become a real fixture for a sustained period but as for now this is a minority view. My own personal viewpoint is that it will stay relatively mild for the foreseeable future with many ingredients for cold becoming increasingly displaced with time shifting the emphasis of concern towards how much rain will be falling on already saturated ground over the period. I think what we are lacking this season is cool High pressure which can sometimes develop at this time of year introducing early Winter cold to our shores in the shape of frost and fog failing to clear by day rather than cold weather from any other source this early on. However, as things stand apart from the risk of cool fogs this weekend in some parts there is little sign of any significant chill for the UK shown from any source today.

A brightening process is underway now after a wet night with a thunderstorm at 02:30. Currently 10.1C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A brightening process is underway now after a wet night with a thunderstorm at 02:30. Currently 10.1C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Windy and mild this morning with now cloudy skies and temperatures of 11.3C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Windy and mild this morning with now cloudy skies and temperatures of 11.3C. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY NOVEMBER 14TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A large depression covers the Atlantic ocean with a series of fronts crossing North and slowly East across the UK both today and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining largely unsettled with rain at times, heavy in places and coupled with spells of strong winds in near to average temperatures for all. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows little sign of any significant shift in the flow from it's 50-55 deg North location with a particularly strong phase of the flow crossing the Atlantic to a position close to Southern Britain through Week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The general message from the GFS operational this morning is for a sustained period of unsettled and Low pressure driven weather with rain or showers at times for all. A short quieter phase is shown briefly at the start of next week as the current Low pressure fills up near to Southern England before a renewed Atlantic drive from intense depressions to the NW delivers severe gales and very heavy rain and squally showers in temperatures gradually falling closer towards the seasonal average after the weekend. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar to the operational with the only slight difference being the emhasis towards the heaviest rains and the strongest winds focused more towards the North and West though all areas are shown to come under repeated attacks of wind and rain in a very volatile and mobile Atlantic. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are likewise similar to what I have already printed in the above text with strong winds and heavy rain being the driving force in a more mobile pattern following the current unsettled and more locked pattern with temperatures close to average. UKMO UKMO today illustrates the quieter phase in the weather shown by most models early next week as our current deep Low has drifted down towards Southern England while filling bringing lighter winds but still some rain early next week at the top and tail of the UK. The Day 6 chart shows a deep Atlantic Low approaching Western Britain later to renew the drive of Low pressure based weather later in the week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain that the UK skies will be governed by Low pressure with concoction of troughs moving gently North and NE across the UK. Innitially there will be strong winds and heavy rain in places but later pressure becomes slacker as Low pressure is shown to fill near Southern England with rain at times still for the South and far North well into next week but with quieter weather in Central areas permitting frost and fog possibilities night and morning for a time. GEM GEM shows Low pressure governing the UK weather over the period but does differ in as much as the Low pressure areas come in on more Southerly latitudes and slower in movement maintaining rain and showers for all areas at times in a cyclonic airflow and temperatures close to average. NAVGEM NAVGEM is very different than the above models this morning in that once the current Low pressure complex fills near Southern Britain early next week pressure rises further with slack High pressure covering many parts a week from now with dry and benign weather with mist, fog and frost patches much more likely than rain a week from now away from the far SW. ECM ECM this morning has finally shown closer resemblance to the majority of output this morning in ratcheting up a more powerful series of Atlantic storms later next week crossing quickly East between Scotland and Iceland and delivering Westerly gales and heavy rain and showers in temperatures falling back from the somewhat mild conditions currently to values much closer to what we expect at this time of year. All this follows the current more locked pressure pattern which in itself continues to give heavy rain and wind at times between now and then especially over the South. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles point to a SW flow across the UK in 10 days time in association with Low pressure most likely to lie to the NW of the UK. In this pattern one can only expect unsettled and relatively mild weather to persist in spells of rain and strong winds for all. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today generally focuses on maintained unsettled weather but with a change of emphasis of rain shifting from the West and South to all areas as gales develop widely later. MY THOUGHTS I suppose the main focus for people who read my reports daily is when will the weather turn more wintry and cold but more concerning than any of that is the concerning charts this morning that show the UK is likely to experience a lot more rain and wind with likely flooding issues likely to develop in areas that least need it as the current locked pattern of Low just to the West and SW is replaced by a much more mobile Atlantic and powerful Jet Stream still quite well South. This pattern in some ways mirrors what we were under repeatedly last Winter. This will encourage some powerful storm systems to develop to the NW of the UK as the High pressure block to the NE collapses next week. All areas will then see further spells of heavy rain and squally winds with brighter and more showery weather in between. There is little sign of any dry weather over the UK over the next few weeks with the exception of early next week when a Central swathe of the UK sees a drier and calmer phase before the aforementioned pattern develops. Temperatures will fall back somewhat from this weekend towards a point close to the seasonal average and in the strength of the winds likely later next week I'm sure it will feel chilly with the chance of mountain snow at times across the North. NAVGEM is the only model that does suggest higher pressure from the block to the NE developing later next week but does look very isolated in it's evolution and is best disregarded this morning. So going back to my early point about when the UK can expect to see cold weather arriving my answer would be as far away as ever this morning as all the building blocks shown late last week and to some degree early this week are largely removed and in their place we have a powerful Jet flow next week winding up powerful storm systems which look like battering Britain from the West in the second half of the period shown by the models this morning.

After a very showery start things look a little better now in another relatively mild start 8.9C. Other data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

After a very showery start things look a little better now in another relatively mild start 8.9C. Other data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 12TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY NOVEMBER 13TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs will clear NE over the UK today with a showery SW flow following. Tomorrow sees a strong South flow ahead of a further Active trough arriving from the SW later. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles especially over the South and West at first and the North and West later. Drier and slightly colder weather over the North and East for a time from this weekend. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows little sign of any significant shift in the flow from it's 50-55 deg North location with a split flow for a time with a weak Northern arm travelling East over the Arctic Circle. The flow will blow with varying strengths and orientation this side of the Atlantic the only changes through the period. GFS OPERATIONAL As of previous runs the run concentrates on two different elements of unsettled and wet weather over the two week period. The first week sees Low pressure on Southerly latitudes, mostly near Southern Britain with rain and showers for all as a result in generally mild conditions in a South or SE wind. Over week 2 more mobility is shown as Low pressire migrates towards the NW with SW and West gales featuring frequently in periods of rain and showers moving much more quickly East and average temperatures seeing all areas through to the end of the run and beyond. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in trend but does indicate a drier and mild period over some Eastern and SE Britain for a time early next week as pressure builds over Europe before the very windy and wet conditions arriving in the NW then spreads to all areas by the end of the run. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles are much more akin to it's operational version with a very mobile and potentially stormy spell of weather likely over the UK in Week 2 with severe gales likely almost anywhere. All this of course following another 4-6 days of being under the influence of slower moving Low pressure as it drifts down towards Southern Britain over this period. Very late in the run pressure is shown to rise from the South over the South setting up drier and relatively mild weather then. UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure close to Southern Britain continuing to fill but remain influential enough to maintain rain at times over Southern Britain. A ridge of High pressure from an European Anticyclone lies West across Scotland early next week with dry and bright weather with some frost and fog possible up here. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain that the UK skies will be governed by Low pressure with concoction of troughs moving gently North and NE across the UK. Innitially there will be strong winds in places but later pressure becomes slacker as Low pressure is shown to fill near Southern England with rain at times still for all well into next week. GEM GEM shows Low pressure holding control over Southern England early next week as the current deep mid Atlantic Low drifts ESE slowly towards this position over the coming daysat the same tome as filling slowly. After a couple of days of ambling around over the South while the North gets breathing space from wind and rain under a ridge from the NE Low pressure gathers momentum again moving NE from the SW to return wind and rain to all areas again later next week. Temperatures though mild at first will probably fall back to more average levels later especially under the strong SE flow over the North late in the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure domination across the South of the UK with a deep centre over the Atlantic drifting down over Southern England by early next week filling steadily. As with GEM rain for all at first will become more restricted towards the SW for a time before a renewed Atlantic attack returns NE across the UK later as High pressure to the NE declines slowly later at the same time as receding SE. ECM ECM this morning continues it's recnt run of different evolutions to the rest of the models, this morning showing a slow rise of pressure late in the run under complex synoptics which sees a cut off Low near the West of the UK at the end of next week with rain at times and a slack and benign look to the UK synoptics at the end of the run with a lot of dry if benign and cloudy type weather under pressure that has risen sufficiently to develop a High centre to the NW at the end of the run in average temperatures. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles point to a SW flow of some sort the most likely outcome covering the UK in 10 Days time in association with Low pressure over the NW Atlantic and higher pressure over Europe. No doubt that troughs of Low pressure will lie somewhere close to the UK delivering rain at times in continuing mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today generally focuses on maintained unsettled weather but with a change of emphasis of rain shifting from the West and South more towards the North and West as SW gales develop later. MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather has shifted away from anything colder moving towards the UK in preference to a more mobile and potentially stormy spell of weather through the second half of this morning's output as Low pressure close to Southern Britain early in the period is absorbed by strong and deep Low pressure centred more towards the NW of Britain later which forces the High block to the NE to collapse SE and bring fast moving spells of heavy rain and strong winds East over all areas coupled with potentially stormy conditions. As always there are exceptions to this as there are some options that show High pressure possibly building from the South later and bringing drier and mild conditions into the South at times later. Also ECM continues to be different and brings a more universal rise of pressure over the UK late in it's operational run resulting in a slow dry out of current conditions into quiet and benign conditions in average temperatures if it verifies. It's Ensemble pack bases itself shows Low pressure being likely to be positioned to the NW in 10 Days time with a SW flow and troughs continuing to carry rain at times most prolific towards the North and West. So very little support there from it's operational again. In my opinion this morning the overlying support lies with Atlantic based weather continuing over the UK for the next two weeks with a shift in emphasis of the worst weather likely to shift to the North and West as the High pressure block to the NE largely collapses in the second week. The trend is also for more mobility to the sytems as they look to zip East quickly later on a strong Jet over the UK with severe gales at times offered from some output. The only grain of comfort for a pattern shift to something chilly is flown by the GEM operational today as it shows the cold block to the NE holding back the push from the Atlantic across the UK. However, without much support it really is a candle in the wind this morning.

Dull and gloomy this morning with bursts of quite heavy rain at times in a blustery but mild South wind. Currently 10.1C. Other data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Dull and gloomy this morning with bursts of quite heavy rain at times in a blustery but mild South wind. Currently 10.1C. Other data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY NOVEMBER 11TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 12TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slow moving troughs of Low pressure over Western Britain will edge slowly East across all areas tonight and tomorrow with a showery SW flow following. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles especially over the South and West. Drier and slightly colder weather over the North and East for a time from this weekend. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows little sign of any significant shift in the flow from it's 50-55 deg North location with just varying strengths and orientation this side of the Atlantic the only changes through the period. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's GFS operational run shows the UK under bombardment from Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic and becoming slow moving close to the West and SW of the UK with repeated spells of rain and showers affecting the UK especially the South and West with mild Southerly winds for all through Week 1. Through week 2 the pattern is shown to relax as pressure builds, first from the North and then over the UK with fine weather developing for all with frost and fog night and morning, slow to clear in the day and as a result it could feel very chilly. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run carries the same sequence of events through Week 1 with the Northern High pressure to the NE collapsing later with a more direct hit of Atlantic wind, rain and gales for all as a result with Low pressure allowed to cross the UK directly at times rather than being held up just to our West in potential storminess later in week 2. THE GFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles are similar in stance to the Parallel run in as much that Northern blocking collapses by early next week with rain and gales sweeping the UK on a strong and occasionally stormy SW wind in association with deep Low pressure areas crossing East close to NW Scotland. Mild weather is shown to persist for all. UKMO UKMO today shows Low pressure close to SW Britain filling slowly with time but sufficiently strong enough to continue rain and showers across the UK in a cyclonic flow with pressure quite High to the North and NE keeping the wettest weather away from these parts. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts maintain the theme of Low pressure just to the West of the UK throwing troughs North and East across the UK. The Eastward shift is much slower with repeated waves running quickly North across the UK with copious rainfall events in Central and Western areas while there will be more showery interludes and drier weather more generally towards the NE. GEM GEM shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next week as deep Low pressure drifts slowly ESE towards Southern England by a weeks time filling steadily. Rain and showers for all as a result will slowly become confined to Southern parts before a build of pressure develops High pressure over the UK by Day 10 with fine and dry weather for all then with some sunshine but fog and frost at night too. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure domination across the South of the UK with a deep centre over the Atlantic drifting down over Southern England by early next week filling steadily. As with GEM rain for all at first will become more restricted towards the SW for a time before a renewed Atlantic attack returns NE across the UK later as High pressure to the North and NE collapses. ECM ECM this morning shows a very similar pattern of deep Low pressure making it's way down into Southern England by next weekend with rain at times for all becoming more restricted to the far South later as the Low fills in situ and High pressure to the North and NE becomes more influential. It doesn't look like holding though as the Atlantic pattern at Day 10 seems poised to make a renewed attack soon after term of the run. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles point to a SW flow of some sort the most likely outcome covering the UK in 10 Days time in association with Low pressure over the NW Atlantic and higher pressure over Europe. No doubt that troughs of Low pressure will lie somewhere close to the UK delivering rain at times in continuing mild conditions. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today shows something of a rise in pressure from the North and NE by next week though particularly cold weather as a result of this seems unlikely. MY THOUGHTS There is something of an agreeance in the sequence of events through much of the output this morning. This week and next weekend is agreed by all output as the well worn Low pressure belt from Western Britain and the Atlantic persists with slow moving troughs crossing slowly East and more quickly North over the UK continuing with heavy rain at times especially in the West and South in mild conditions generally. With Low pressure then shown to fill steadily as it reaches Southern Britain early next week the North and East looks like becoming dry and perhaps bright as higher pressure to the North begins to ridge down. With no cold air to tap into we have to rely on our own home made chill from frost and fog at night to bring temperatures down to average levels for many next week more likely in the North and East. The main differences between output this morning then hinges on how successful this build of pressure from the North is in first displacing any Low pressure close to Southern Britain at that time and secondly how successfully it holds any push of the Atlantic back over Britain as the block to the North becomes displaced. It does look generally accepted between the output today that the belt of High pressure to the North will not give the UK any particularly cold weather this time as it is favoured to collapse away SE next week as deep Atlantic Low's to our NW take over and possibly deliver SW gales and heavy rain at times for all in average temperatures then. The lone cold weather flag is flown by the GFS operational in it's last few frames offering the only chance of cold from the NE possible. My own thoughts are that the Atlantic will win out after a short hiatus for some Northern and Eastern parts over the weekend and early next week with rain most likely in the South and West extending back to all areas later next week with temperatures still holding at respectable levels well out towards the end of November.

Fine and dry this morning with a Southerly breeze picking up. Current data here.:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Fine and dry this morning with a Southerly breeze picking up. Current data here.:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY NOVEMBER 10TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY NOVEMBER 11TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A strengthening Southerly flow will carry a pair of fronts East into Western and Central areas later today, tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Unsettled with rain at times across the British Isles with strong winds too and temperatures near to normal. perhaps becoming a little colder and drier from the North later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow maintained in a complex form but with the main core held to a position to the South of the UK for much of the period with varying strengths from day to day. GFS OPERATIONAL Today's GFS operational run shows the UK under bombardment from Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic and becoming slow moving close to the West and SW of the UK with repeated spells of rain and showers affecting the UK especially the South and West with mild Southerly winds for all. Through week 2 Low pressure edges further North for a time which only serves to bring more SW winds and quicker moving troughs running East and NE over the UK with sunshine and showers in between with temperatures close to average. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run carries the same sequence of events throughout with the northern High pressure to the NE collapsing later with a more direct hit of Atlantic wind, rain and gales for all as a result with Low pressure allowed to cross the UK directly rather than being held up just to our West. THE GFS ENSEMBLES. The GFS Ensembles are rather different through Week 2 as they allow High pressure to remain and in fact build to the North later in the output with the Low pressure areas afflicting Southern Britain in particular through Week 1 weakening and allowing a colder and drier Easterly flow to develop across the UK by the end of the period. UKMO. UKMO today shows deep Low pressure over the Atlantic steadily slipping SE towards SW England at the end of the week with rain and heavy showers continuing as a result especially across South and West Britain while the North and NE could become rather drier next weekend with much cloud and sea mist rolling into Eastern and Central parts in the East and SE flow. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of slow moving occluded fronts with disturbances running North along them delivering copious rainfall across Western and Central Britain over the coming 48 hrs or so before a more gentle SW and showery flow crosses the UK for a time before renewed complex troughing attached to another deep Low West of Ireland moves into the UK from the SW by next weekend. GEM GEM shows Low pressure in total control of the UK weather over the next week to 10 days repeatedly moving into the UK from the west while filling slowly. Rain and showers look maintained across all areas over the period with little change in temperatures values to currently and strong winds at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM keeps Low pressure domination across the UK and as other models show having reached UK shores they stall and fill slowly with rain and showers scattered about on most days. Some chillier air is shown to infiltrate Northern regions late in the run with Low pressure then in a belt across the Atlantic the South of the UK and into Europe with the cold air in the North edging further South with time. ECM ECM this morning shows little respite from the current pattern of Low pressure to the west and SW of the UK with stalling fronts running into Southern and Western Britain in particular with heavy rain at times here. Northern and Eastern parts could become somewhat drier as pressure is high to the NE. Little change looks likey to this overall pattern this side of Day 10 with temperatures holding near or somewhat above normal in mostly Southerly or SE winds. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The ensembles point to a continuation of broadly unsettled weather with rain at times across the UK in average temperatures and a SE flow as Low pressure continues to stretch from Southern Greenland to the SW of the UK. Some of the rain will be heavy and winds look like continuing quite strong at times. Pressure remains High to the NE of the UK at that time. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The trend today shows a somewhat reduced chance of High pressure developing to the North and NE bringing drier conditions to the North and East in Week 2 with slightly colder weather. MY THOUGHTS The pattern of a Jet flow blowing further South than it's normal position continues to offer the complex mix of Low pressure just to the West of the UK feeding decelerating troughs into the UK from the West and this looks like continuing for a long while yet. This means that rain will be heavy and prolonged at times as the troughs move in, slow or stall and this looks most likely over Western, Central and SW Britain for the next week or so. Beyond that things do complicate somewhat as there is still a variety of output still having a desire to enhance High pressure to develop from the North and NE later to at least bring drier and somewhat chillier conditions to the North and NE whereas it looks unlikely that this makes it''s way down to Southern Britain as the feed of Low pressure from the Western Atlantic continues to approach the SW at times with further rain as a result. In fact the GFS operational and Parallel runs show Northern blocking colllapsing entirely later with major Atlantic storms close to the NW oof Britain as a result. The amount of output showing any cooler solution has reduced somewhat and where it is shown it is in quite a diluted form with probably NAVGEM flying the chilliest resolution for the North a week from now. The GFS Ensembles don't look bad either for cold lovers down the line with a Scandinavian High developing but cold air is held at arm's length and just outside of the run term. However, with not much support from the ECM operational and it's Ensembles who maintain a cyclonic feed from a Southerly point across the UK it looks unlikely that we will see much more than a split in the Weather in a week to 10 days with the South and West continuing to see the risk of quite large amounts of frontal rain at times from slow moving troughs while the North and East gradually see drier conditions develop with time closer to High pressure to the NE with temperatures remaining close to average overall.

Beautiful here this morning. A valley ground frost though but temps recovering well now. Current conditions at: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html