Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY DECEMBER 7TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will move down over the UK from the NW later today and tomorrow followed by a cold and showery WNW flow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and windy for most with wintry showers or longer spells of rain or sleet with snow on hills especially in the North. Some night frosts where skies clear. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow positioned to the South of the UK with cold zonal weather the most likely with rain or showers for all falling as sleet and snow at times in bluster west or NW winds. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a lot of rather cold and unsettled weather across the UK as the pattern of Low to the North and occasionally NW and NE and High to the SW persists. There is spells of wet and windy weather shown for all at times followed by spells of colder and clearer weather with wintry showers across the North and West in particular. It is shown to be often windy too. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run maintains a similar pattern to the operational with winds from a Westerly point alternating with more NW or even North winds at times as each weather system moves away East. Occasional rain followed by wintry showers will be a repeated process through the run with snow at times over most high ground. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As a lot of colder air interjects at times there will be wintry showery type weather for many areas too with frost and snow at times over even modest high ground on occasion. UKMO UKMO today shows deep Low pressure to the North of the UK with a strong, cold and unstable Westerly flow over the UK. Showers or longer spells of rain with sleet and snow at times over high ground look the most likely scenario for all areas later next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold front moving SE across the UK tonight and again towards midweek, each accompanied by strong winds cloud and rain. In between will be a cold and showery WNW flow particularly later in the period with some frost by night early in the week as a ridge topples across the UK from the West. GEM GEM this morning shows a very unsettled and cold period next week as a deep Low crosses East to the North of Scotland and then SE down over NW Europe tutning winds into the NW or North with wintry showers and strong winds for many as a result. Later in the run pressure is shown to rise markedly as a ridge moves across from the West with widespread frost before milder Westerly winds cross the UK from the Atlantic later with rain at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM also shows strong Westerly winds developing through next week and once a band of squally rain moves through cold and showery conditions will prevail and as winds turn more NW later in the week wintry showers across Northern and Western hills could extend to all areas later. ECM ECM this morning shows a variation on the same theme as the others with a chilly and unstable WNW flow across the UK following the band of squally rain towards midweek. Troughs in the flow enhance the showers at times before winds turn more NW later and rising pressure from the SW dampens down the showers from the SW late in the period. Many of the showers will be wintry especially on higher ground and this may extend to lower levels too at times especially later in the week and next weekend. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data maintains the pattern of Low tpressure to the North and High near the Azores but this is made up of a variation of options some of which do include Northerly incursions with snow showers in places and others with a milder Westerly pattern with rain at times so clearly nothing definitive can be drawn from these this morning. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme is for a lot of rather cold zonal Westerly winds to prevail across the UK between deep Low pressure to the North and High pressure near the Azores with the usual ebbs and flows in the flow as each weather system passes to the North. MY THOUGHTS The pattern most commonplace within all the output this morning is for a sustained period of rather cold and unstable, strong Westerly winds to blow across the UK over the next couple of weeks. With the air source often coming from Newfoundland or Greenland the air will be none to warm at times and with sufficient instability in the form of showers there will be loads of wintry showers peppering our Northern and Western areas in particular driven well inland at times in the strong flow. There could also be minor disturbances within the flow delivering more prolonged rain or sleet at times too and with time the flow could tilt more NW or even North which will enhance the wintriness within the showers to even more areas at even modest height levels later. However, the distribution of showers will shift more towards the North and sheltered Southern and pater Western areas would see less showers and possible frosty nights as pressure rises somewhat from the SW. So having dealt with the pattern of the next few weeks where will that leave us as we approach Christmas. Well I still feel as yesterday that it's too the North we have to continue to look for our cold weather this side of the New Year and I'm fairly certain that there will be some interesting weather not too dissimilar to the pattern we are looking towards currently to maintain at least the interest and possibility of snow over the Christmas week and nowhere over the UK could be immune. I do feel though that it will be made up of fleeting snowfalls chiefly over the hills and lying snowfall may well be very temporary at best on low ground and in the South but if our friend the Azores High is allowed to ridge North over the Atlantic at some point over the next few weeks as others on here I wouldn't be surprised to see a plunge into a more sustained and UK wide cold shot from the North develop but for the moment I think the current expected pattern shown for later next week could stick around for quite a while. Having said that it is at least a more seasonal outlook than the benign mild weather with High pressure over Europe than we endured a few weeks back.

No comments on tonight's 10 Day ECM Mean. Doesn't look that exciting to me around the UK. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

A cold and damp start with a hint of rain at times. Just 0.9C currently. Other parameters viewed live at:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A cold and damp start with a hint of rain at times. Just 0.9C currently. Other parameters viewed live at:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 5TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY DECEMBER 6TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will clear SE over England today with a cold and showery NW flow following. A further cold front will approach NW Britain tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times. Temperatures near average at times but generally rather cold and very windy too with snow on hills possible. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast indicates the flow will continue blowing across Southern Britain over the longer term period this morning probably in an undulating pattern as warm and cold sectors pass by. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning indicates quite a flat pattern made up of Low pressure crossing East to the North of Scotland and High pressure to the South and SW of the UK. This will bring predominently Westerly winds, strong at times. These will tilt NW at times delivering short spells of colder and showery conditions principally to the North and West while periods of less chilly weather with cloudy skies and occasional rain occurs at other times again especially towards the North and West. Amounts of frost and fog will be limited with too much wind and snow and ice problems will be limited to colder, showery periods and chiefly over the hills of the North. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run maintains a similar pattern but does show a greater and more extensive dip into a colder Northerly flow at times when wintry showers become much more pronounced across the North before milder weather returns a few days after. Elsewhere rain at times on a gusty west wind looks the order of the days with temperatures closer to average at times. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As some colder air interjects at times some rather cold and showery interludes occur across the UK at times, chiefly and most felt in the North where snow is possible at times. UKMO UKMO today shows deep Low pressure to the East of Iceland and High pressure down near the Azores with a strong Westerly flow across the UK with squally shwers and sunny spells in rather cold conditions permitting temperatures to fall as snow over Northern and Western high ground.. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold fronts crossing SE across the UK over the weekend and setting up a cold NW flow for a time with wintry showers before a ridge dampens these down early next week ahead of deep Low pressure to the NW by midweek. GEM GEM shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK throughout next week turning NW at times as colder air digs down across the UK periodically. Low pressure remains deep and recurring to the North of the UK through the period with High pressure to the South. Rain at times will prevail with clearer, colder and showery periods as well when snow will fall over Northern hills. NAVGEM NAVGEM is a little different this morning in that it takes next weeks deep and powerful Low pressure system South down the North Sea through the middle and end of next week filling as it goes but bringing ever deeper and colder air South with wintry showers for many and at least the chance of seeing a little snow for many with rather more across Northern and Eastern hills in particular. ECM ECM this morning shows a windy week next week with troughs rushing East in the flow between Low pressure to the North and High to the SW of the UK possibly ridging North over the Atlantic later. All areas will see rain at times and with colder incursions affecting principally the North at first next week spreading further South to all areas later with the risk of wintry showers to quite modest levels at times late in the run even over the South. Though some milder interludes look likely over the South a lot of the time will see colder polar maritime type air keeping things on the cold side, chiefly in the North at first but more widely by the end of the run. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data shows a sinking Jet flow to the East of the UK and the UK falling on the Northern side of the Jet flow later. Low pressure areas continue to be shown to bring some wet and windy conditions with cold weather too at times, especially later when snow could become a feature for more parts of the UK and not just Northern hills. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Although the Azores High is shown to remain a thorn in the side for those looking for deep cold there is a lot of energy shown in a strong Westerly flow over the Atlantic to bring spells of tropical maritime air with rain at times with a growing chance that polar maritime air frequently over the North could make it's way down over the South too more coherently later in the period with wintry showers. MY THOUGHTS For those that like mobile and strong Westerly winds bringing spells of rain followed by Wintry showers then the next few weeks could be yours. All models show a potent Westerly airflow blowing across the UK between deep Low pressure areas moving East repeatedly to the North of Scotland and High pressure well to the SW. Fronts in the flow will bring their own version of rain followed by clearer and showery conditions. Colder air in these showery spells will allow snow to fall on hills of the North and West and to quite modest levels in the far North. For Southern Britain any wintryness will be very fleeting and for many non-existent until later in the period when some output notably NAVGE and ECM drag the colder uppers down across the South of the UK too giving all areas a risk of seeing at least a little snow and perhaps quite a bit on upland areas of the North. Despite this wintry flavour to my thoughts this morning we muct remain mindful that we are in a Westerly regime and we need the Jet flow to dig further South than currently and the Azores High to play less of a role in suppressing any cold events for the UK and there are signs that this may take place later in the period. As many have said the weather patterns of this Winter so far are very different to where we were a year ago and with plenty of cold air up North this remains the direction we need to keep looking as we approach the run up to Christmas as I feel the best chance of snow for Christmas this year is dependant upon whether we are in a polar airmass behind Low pressure to the NE of the UK or not. I don't think we will see any cold from the East in time for Christmas and will have to wait for cold polar air on the rear side of one of these deep Lows to lower mainland Europe temperatures to levels which would encourage and support synoptics more condusive in bringing cold from that direction post Christmas.

If it's cold your after the 18z operational is as boring as it can get as far as I'm concerned as there seems nothing to even raise an eyebrow at if its cold your after. The progressive Westerly bias continues with nothing more than fleeting glances of a cold feeling day between milder and cloudy weather with some rain at other times. I put my own odds of a 10/1 chance against a white Chrismas using the GFS 18z data tonight.

As I have said so many times in the past you can look for cold solutions in the models as much as you like as there will always be some eye candy for coldies somewhere or another in far FI, be it at the Pole the Arctic or Siberia it matters not a jot to the UK as long as that persistent and semi permanent High pressure down to the Azores is maintained and with the Jet strong at the moment rolling over the top it isn't going anywhere fast I'm afraid. Contrary to what some people have been stating here and elsewhere I think the models have changed quite a bit in the last 24-36 hours in as much as gone is the deep Low pressure likely to be at or over the UK towards the early middle part of next week and in it's place is the large High to the SW with pressure hardly falling below 1020mbs across Southern England in the next week to 10 days. That is a big shift in my eyes and this theory is highighted once more on the 6z output. Any cold NW flow in this sort of setup with no deep Low pressure over the UK will be a very watered down affair indeed with bright and dry weather likely in average temperatures alternating with cloudier and milder period as each warm sector passes. On the high ground of Scotland and the North it's a different story of course but unless you live above 400-500mtrs asl of which not many of us do I don't think any excitement can be generated from any output I have seen yet today, but as always with weather in the UK's temperate zone the next set of output released soon might tell a different story...anything's possible.

Cold and grey but dry here this morning. Currently 3.5C. Full parmeter data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Cold and grey but dry here this morning. Currently 3.5C. Full parmeter data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY DECEMBER 4TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY DECEMBER 5TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will move slowly SE across the UK today and tonight followed by a cold and somewhat showery NW flow tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable with rain at times gradually focusing more towards the North and West. Rather cold at first but probably becomig milder later especially across the South THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a dip in the flow across the UK and into Europe before the underlying trend remains for the flow to return North in a West to East flow across the UK in a mainly flat flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a much less intense and vigorous Westerly flow across the UK over the next two weeks as High pressure is programmed to be much more influential in watering down the extent and power of deep Low pressure areas held further to the North of the UK. As a result the message is for a Westerly flow delivering rain at times especially to the North and West with some longer drier spells across the South and East. As the flow backs west the current chill will lessen with some mild weather at times later especially across the South. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern to the operational run with Westerly winds taking command, up to gale force or above for a time next week across the North before all areas settle into a North/South split between Low pressure to the North and NW and High pressure to the South and SE. The net result at the surface will maintain a lot of cloud across the UK with occasional rain especially in the North and West while longer drier spells in the South and East look likely with temperatures steadily recovering as the flow backs more towards the SW later THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As some colder air interjects at first some rather cold and showery interludes develop though as the pattern flattens later with strong West or SW winds temperatures will recover to average or above with all too frequent periods of rain in the strong winds becoming more restricted towards the North and West at times. UKMO UKMO today shows High pressure to the SW of the UK becoming a domainant and controlling feature of the UK weather again through the middle of next week holding otherwise deep and stormy Low pressure harmlessly away from all but the far North of the UK. Some rain is expected for all at times but principally heaviest in the North and West. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a series of weakening cold fronts crossing SE over the UK over the next two to three days each bringing some rain and then a cold and stronger NW flow with Wintry showers in places before a ridge of High pressure topples across the UK early next week. GEM GEM keeps things rather chillier through it's run as the deep Low to the North next week extends SE over NW Europe promoting a cold NW flow and wintry showers across the UK before winds back Westerly later with occasional rain across Western areas later and slowly recovering temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning pulls our old friend the Azores High back in close to the South later next week displacing the chilly NW flow with a milder SW flow with rain at times chiefly towards the North and West later next week. ECM ECM this morning shows a changeable and sometimes windy and rather cold period over the next 10 days as deep Low pressure held well to the North of the UK push troughs of Low pressure ESE across the UK periodically. Each of these will bring some rain followed by wintry showers before milder air returns from the west a day or two afterward. At the end of the run the Azores High remains the spanner in the works in diverting the coldest conditions further to the North and NE over Scandinavia and other parts of NW Europe. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data continue to highlight little chance of cold for the UK as the pattern of Low pressure lying in a belt from Scandicavia to Greenland and High pressure from the Azores to the Meditterenean Sea later maintains a Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times, especially to the North and West with average temperatures. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main change this morning is that the Azores High is shown to be much closer and more influential in steering the previous outputs's showing of Low pressure over the UK to a point well to the North and as a result brings a more diluted period of changeable weather with rain at times across the UK and temperatures overall close to normal when taking the whole period as a whole. MY THOUGHTS I can't help feeling a little deflated this morning for those thinking that next week was going to mark the start of what looked like a major shift into cold and unsettled weather when some areas would of seen some snow albeit brief and fleeting for most. Instead this morning has shown a marked shift away from the worst of this as the Azores High once more spoils the party in becoming much more influential in steering the worst of the Winter weather to the North of the UK and Scandinavia while we lie in a more benign Westerly flow pattern with rain at times followed by spells of sunshine and showers, wintry on Northern hills in pretty ordinary conditions for mid December. Frost and fog could occur in the chillier periods between Low pressure troughs as a ridge passes over at times. The High is shown to come close enough to Southern Britain at times to restrict rainfall here to nothing more than a splash and the worrying trend of pushing the High zone east into Europe later in the period is present this morning which would if verified back winds more to the SW and draw milder air NE across many areas while maintaing the worst of rain to the North and West. I still maintain that the best chance of achieving cold over the UK over the coming weeks is from brief incursions from the North and NW with an almost zero chance of anything turning up from the East this side of Christmas given that the pressure patterns and Jet flow profile remains poor for sustained cold anywhere in the UK in the coming forecasting period. While the Winter has only just begun the large and influential High pressure zone seemingly permanently shown to the SW of the UK thus far this season is going to have to shift and loosen it's grip in a big way enabling the Jet Stream profile to become better aligned in our part of the Northern hemisphere and steer a more sustained chance of cold Arctic air getting a longer lasting foothold down over the UK but as of yet this is not shown in any output I have seen.

Meanwhile the 10 Day Mean Chart looks rather uninspiring still with a broadscale pattern of a long fetch Westerly across the Atlantic and the UK with Low presure to the North...spells plenty of rain and showers to my eyes with snow likely on the highest ground of Northern Britain at times after each cold front passes. I concede the operational would bring something rather better though. http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

A very chilly morning with patchy frost under clear skies but a light NE wind. Currently 1.2C. All current conditions can be seen within my live weather page and webcam Infra Red live stream in my signature below 24/7. http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html http://gibbyswebcam1.no-ip.org:8150/

A very chilly morning with patchy frost under clear skies but a light NE wind. Currently 1.2C. All current conditions can be seen within my live weather page and webcam Infra Red live stream in my signature below 24/7. http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html http://gibbyswebcam1.no-ip.org:8150/

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 3RD 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY DECEMBER 4TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure lying across Central Britain will decline slowly as fronts lie across the SE of Britain and approach the NW tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE After weakly changeable conditions in the next 5 days or so it will become more unsettled with wet and windy weather developing for all areas from the middle of next week. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows an undulating flow likely for a few days with a plunge South of the flow for a time before with time it settles on a West to East flow across Southern England through Week 2 between High pressure to the South and Low to the North of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a gradual change to more unsettled and very changeable conditions taking over with spells of windy and rainy weather alternating with colder and clearer air with showers, some wintry in places as Low pressure troughs digs further South down across the UK. Later on in the period the High pressure to the South tilts the airflow to more of a WSW flow with further spells of rain at times for many with the worst rain in the North and West. It would become milder in the SW flow at times especially in the South. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run illustrates a very zonal pattern developing with Low pressure to the North bringing spells of wind and rain to all areas in temperatures close to average overall with some colder interludes next week with showers, some wintry before generally milder conditions develop later in the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a more volatile and potentially stormy period a week from now as deep and vigorous Low pressure is allowed to make much larger inroads across the UK with gales and heavy rain followed by chilly aor with wintry showers at times. The trend later is for pressure systems to be less pronounced and with High pressure never far to the South the rain looks like it could become more biased towards the North and West later in a milder Westerly flow. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As some colder air interjects at first some rather cold and showery interludes develop though as the pattern flattens later with strong West or SW winds temperatures will recover to average or above with all too frequent periods of rain in the strong winds. UKMO UKMO today shows the current period of rather cold and changeable weather persisting into next week with some overnight frost for a time. Then the trend next week looks like being towards winder and wetter conditions as deep Low pressure develops to the North of the UK later next week allowing temperatures to rise somewhat especially across the South. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a slow moving trough close to SE England over the coming few days with the ridge across Central UK declining. Occasional rain in the SE and troughs to the NW giving the same will move SE over all areas later in the weekend followed by a chilly NW flow with some showers for a time, wintry on hills. GEM GEM shows a pattern which deteriorates conditions across the UK from the North later this weekend as Low pressure deepens in the Iceland area feeding the UK gales and heavy rain next week with spells of sunshine and showers in between. Temperatures look like alternating between average conditions or a little below in the showery spells to rather milder at times across the South as warm sectors rush through at times. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows strong to gale Westerly winds next week as Low pressure to the North of Scotland delivers very wet weather at times as troughs rush West to East across the UK followed by squally showers. Temperatures will generally be close to average made feel colder in the strength of the wind. ECM ECM this morning shows a very wet and windy spell developing next week as the current weak troughs crossing SE in a chilly NW flow give way to much deeper fast changing weather type as intense Low pressure lies close to North of Scotland bringing fast moving periods of rain and showers in near average temperatures and strong winds. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data illustrate a typical Winter pattern for the UK with Low pressure to the North of the UK and High pressure near the Azores giving rise to a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and average temperatures overall. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme has now become strong in support for the quiet and benign spell of late giving way to much more unsettled and windy spells of weather with rain bands and gales alternating with sunshine and showers for all areas. The pattern has flattened this morning making any colder polar maritime incursions of air less potent than was shown yesterday. MY THOUGHTS All models now support a change to a much more mobile pattern of weather developing from early next week. The current benign spell of rather chilly weather with occasional rain will become a much more robust Westerly flow for all next week as Low pressure deepens markedly to the North with a strong West to East Jet Stream setting up home near Southern Britain. Troughs will rush Eastwards regularly, each bringing it's own mix of rain and gales followed by squally showers. As the pattern remains a Westerly based flow temperatures will be average at worst with only the showery interludes providing any chance of wintry precipitation and these only likely on the high hills and mountains of the North. There is some trend notably from GFS on High pressure to the South of the UK creeping a little closer to SE Britain later backing winds towards the SW which if happens would direct the worst of the continuing wind and rainfall towards the North and West and more importantly bring the chance of mild temperatures to all as the flow tilts more SW to NE. There looks little chance of any significant cold across the UK over the period of the output over the next 10-14 days and conditions shown this morning at the extremities of the run are hardly conducive to bringing any risk of cold in the period thereafter so the chances of anything cold and snowy wise for Christmas 2015 look rather forlorn at the moment though of course there is plenty of time for that to change at this range. Meanwhile it looks like we must all batten down the hatches for a rather different style of Wintry weather than we have seen recently over the upcoming period though I doubt it will set the world on fire by many unless it's gales and heavy rain that floats your boat.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY DECEMBER 2ND 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 3RD 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION. A cold front will edge very slowly SE across the SE of Britain followed by a ridge of High pressure across Central Britain later. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Mostly dry and benign conditions will slowly give way to more unsettled and changeable weather with rain or perhaps wintry showers at times. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a brief dip South in the flow across NW Europe before returning North quite quickly and then blowing across the UK while slowly sinking to the South of the UK later in the run. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a gradual change to more unsettled and very changeable conditions taking over with spells of windy and rainy weather alternating with colder and clearer air with showers, some wintry in places as Low pressure digs further South down across the UK displacing the High to the South and SW further away for a time. Late in the run the High returns close to the South over France and a mild Westerly flow re-establishes across the UK with wind and rain most likely to continue towards the North and West. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run shows a similar synoptic setup as the operational though individual times and positioning of the driving pressure systems affect the weather differently over the UK day to day but the overall mess age is the same in that High pressure to the South and Low to the North remain dominant throughout. THE GFS CONTROL. The GFS control run also shows a more volatile and potentially stormy period a week from now as deep and vigorous Low pressure is allowed to make much larger inroads across the UK with gales and heavy rain followed by chilly aor with wintry showers at times. The trend later is for pressure systems to be less pronounced and with High pressure never far to the South the rain looks like it could become more biased towards the North and West later in a milder westerly flow THE GEFS ENSEMBLES. The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As the Jet Stream sinks further South later the winds will become chillier at times especially in the North with wintry showers at times between the passing rain bands. UKMO UKMO today shows a rather cold Northerly flow at the start of the weekend with outbreaks of rain being replaced by wintry showers for a time with a rinse and repeat pattern of rain followed by colder and showery conditions looking likely again early next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a slow movong trough close to SE England at the weekend before a cold front moving down from the NW bring cold and bright weather with some coastal and hill showers falling as snow in places. Then at the end of the period a warm front brings milder Westerly winds back to Scotland by Monday. GEM GEM shows a pattern which deteriorates conditions across the UK from the North later this weekend as Low pressure makes it's way South deeper into the UK with spells of rain and gales for all interspersed by brighter and colder but still windy conditions with squally showers, wintry on hills especially in the North. This pattern then persists out to the end of the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM too winds up to a more unsettled spell next week powered by a developing deep depression close to Northern Scotland at the end of the run with Westerly gales and rather cold conditions following a band of rain with frequent squally and wintry showers especially across the North and West. ECM ECM this morning shows a pattern also is similar to the rest of the output with strong support for a more coherent attack from Low pressure to the North and NW next week with the quiet and rather chilly benign conditions between now and then giving way to wet and windy conditions followed by cold and showery conditions in a WNW flow. The end of the run signifies the unsettled and changeable period is expected to continue with Westerly winds carrying bands of milder rainy weather followed by colder and showery spells. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data illustrate a typical Winter pattern for the UK with Low pressure to the North of the UK and High pressure near the Azores giving rise to a strong Westerly flow across the UK with rain at times and average temperatures overall. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme has now become strong in support for the quiet and benign spell of late giving way to much more unsettled and windy spells of weather with rain bands and gales alternating with colder and still windy weather with showers, wintry on hills. MY THOUGHTS The models have firmed up on the trend towards much more changeable weather with strong winds developing for all areas as we move through next week. The High pressure to the SW looks like losing a lot of it's influence as deep Low pressure areas tilt towards a slightly South of East track to the North of Scotland. This powers up strong Westerly winds with spells of rain followed by successive periods of colder and showery conditions with some snow likely on high ground mostly in the North at times before the next surge of Low pressure brings the next band of rain and milder air through. This type of structure and sequence is supported by all output with the longer term trend beyond the end of the 1st week maintaining basically Westerly winds and rain at times for all with no clear indication of any major shift towards anything other than a continuation of the zonal train at the end of week 2 this morning. With support for this theory from both the GFS and ECM Ensemble data this morning one has to believe that this evolution maintains a strong chance of verifying from todays output.

DATA TABLE FOR RADSTOCK FOR AUTUMN 2014 FINAL FIGURES (SEP 1ST-NOV 30TH) LOWEST TEMPERATURE -2.8C(27F) on the 24th Nov at 06:56 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE 23.7C (74F) on the 18th Sep at 16:41 AVERAGE TEMPERATURE 11.5C (53F) HIGHEST HUMIDITY 98% on 16th Oct at 00:28 LOWEST HUMIDITY 48% on the 9th Sep at 14:19 WETTEST DAY 19.2mm (0.76inc) on the 18th Sep HIGHEST RAINFALL RATE 150.0mm/hr (6.00inc/hr) on the 18th Sep at 22:30 TOTAL RAINFALL 193.0mm (7.72inc) DRY DAYS 42 Days LONGEST DRY SPELL 16 Days from 2nd-17th Sep HIGHEST PRESSURE 1029.8mbs on the 2nd Oct at 08:51 LOWEST PRESSURE 987.2mbs on the 7th Nov at 04:39 AVERAGE PRESSURE 1012.4mbs PRESSURE RANGE 42.6mbs HIGHEST WIND GUST 36mph on the 21st Oct at 10:30 WIND BETWEEN S & W 34% WIND BETWEEN W & N 21% WIND BETWEEN N & E 12% WIND BETWEEN E & S 33% SUNNIEST DAY 10 hrs and 48 mins on 9th Sep TOTAL SUNSHINE HOURS 222 hrs and 54 mins DAYS OF NO SUN 20 Days BRIGHTEST DAY 180.4w/sqm on 2nd Sep DULLEST DAY 7.7w/sqm on 20th Nov DAYS WITH THUNDER 3 Days on 18th Sep, 16th Oct & 14th Nov DAYS WITH HAIL NONE HOURS WITH FROST 31 Hrs & 36 Mins HOURS WITH FOG VISIBLE 67 Hours & 30 Mins DAYS WITH SNOW NONE REPORT After a quiet September with below average rainfall October gave more in the way of rain but there was nothing exceptional. Temperatures remained above average for much of the time and there were a couple of very warm early September days. The Autumn fog season got under way but cleared quickly in the strong morning sunshine on the days it occurred. A notable thunderstorm occurred here on the 18th September under spanish plume conditions and gave rise to some damage from lightning strikes and surface flooding issues. October saw a step upwards in the strength of the wind after Septembers calm conditions with the remains of hurricane Gonzalo making appearance to our shores on the 21st. However, overall September and October proved very acceptable months overall and despite the lack of dry days in October rainfall amounts were suppressed by the warm SW flow and High pressure to the South. In November the benign season continued with no more than average rainfall and sunshine amounts and temperatures generally above average with some warm days at times. So all in all apart from a briefly stormy period in October the period of warmer than average seasons continue and with much less rainfall than last year at this time and only a slow drop in temperature as we approach Winter there was or is nothing alarming to report in conditions currently.

Grey and chilly this morning with temperatures having fallen a little in the last hour or so. Currently 6.9C with a bit of a chill to the breeze. Full current data here: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Grey and chilly this morning with temperatures having fallen a little in the last hour or so. Currently 6.9C with a bit of a chill to the breeze. Full current data here: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY DECEMBER 2ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front moves SE slowly across Northern and Western Britain with a ridge ahead and behind the trough affecting Central areas later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE A lot of dry weather especially at first before it slowly becomes more unsettled from the North later. Average temperatures with some frost and fog patches night and morning. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows a brief dip South in the flow across NW Europe before returning North quite quickly and settling in a generally West to East flow across Central Britain from next weekend onward. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure to the South of the UK in complete control of keeping wintry weather away from most of the UK over the next few weeks. Apart from a brief dip into a brief colder Northerly incursion at the end of the week the winds quickly back towards a milder Westerly quadrant and even SW later keeping things generally mild with some rain at times chiefly in the North and West THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar with only the addition of another brief chillier period under Northerly winds in Week 2 before it too shows even milder weather under a South or SSSW flow late in the run under High pressure to the SE. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also offers little change from the High pressure based pattern with the centre alternating from a point to the SW of the UK or over France and Low pressure continuing to be steered East to the North of the UK with rain at times largely restricted to the North and West with a lot of dry weather elsewhere. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles also show a fairly flat pattern with persistent High pressure to the South minataining generally benign Westerly winds across the UK with just the briefest intervention of colder conditions from the North later this week before a pattern reset takes place next week with more unsettled conditions perhaps edging further South down across the UK later in the period. UKMO UKMO today shows a cold Northerly flow across the UK ahead of a toppling ridge SE through the weekend with milder Westerly winds reaching the NW and extending slowly SE to other areas late in the weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure across the UK for the period with a NE flow over the South and a SW flow to the NW with dry and fine weather for many with areas of fog and frost in places. Later a cold front is shown to cross SE across the UK introducing a brief and chilly Northerly flow at the weekend GEM GEM shows a pattern which deteriorates conditions across the UK from the North later next weekend and the start of next week. In the interim period dry and benign conditions ahead of a cold front introduces a brief but chilly Northerly at the weekend before milder Westerly winds by this time next week bring falling pressure and spells of rain followed by winry showers down across the UK next week in rather cold conditions in strong and blustery WNW winds. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows the brief Northerly at the end of the week with frost and fog patches night and morning. It later shows winds backing Westerly and becoming milder again with some rain at times then towards the North and NW. ECM ECM this morning shows a pattern more alike to GEM as the brief Northerly at the coming weekend backs off towards the West with falling pressure next week and deep Low pressure sliding ESE across the Northern North sea sending cold fronts SE across the UK with rain and strong winds followed by colder showery conditions likely although from the 10 day chart it looks like milder weather behind a band of rain is knocking on the door of West and SW Britain again. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles show Low pressure close to the coast of Western Norway and High pressure near the Azores the most likely pattern we arrive at by Day 10 with a broad Westerly pattern across the UK delivering more unsettled weather than currently with rain at times and incursions of cooler and more showery weather in between with snow possible on Northern hills. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the South of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown none of which point to sustained and notable cold weather. MY THOUGHTS There still appears to be little evidence of any true Wintry weather for anywhere other than the highest peaks of mountains of Scotland and the North with High pressure as stubborn and persistent as ever across France and the areas towards the Azores throughout. While this stays here our only chance of true cold is from brief incursions of cold Northerly winds behind cold fronts of exiting depressions away from Northern Scotland before toppling ridges of High pressure bring back milder maritime air across the UK from the West. Nevertheless, this week will feel far from mild for many as the risk of frost and fog as the week to come is High under a ridge from the SW later. With time there is a slow trend towards the High slipping rather further South than currently allowing more depth to unsettled conditions feeding down from the North and perhaps allowing more enhanced incursions of colder air at times. Our problem lies with strong Jet flow aligned to the North of the UK rounding a large somtimes displaced Azores high and as I indicated in my reports late last week once this pattern forms it can become devastating for those looking for true Winter long lasting cold. There are normally two routes out of this pattern and that is a ridging of the High North through the Atlantic to greenland disrupting the Jet flow and allowing cold North winds to flood down over NW Europe and while this has been hinted at recently there seems little cross model support for this to happen anytime soon with pressure remaining stubbornly low near Greenland. Secondly we could do with High pressure to migrate from the South or SW across the UK to Scandinavia to once more disrupt the Jet South dragging depressions on much more Southerly latitudes as they approach the UK but that seems unlikely currently. Instead we have to look towards somewhat more unsettled conditions feeding down from the North as the High to the South or SW relaxes somewhat next week but rain and wind are then more likely than cold and snow though with colder air to the North it wouldn't take much to bring that South into the UK at times. In my opinion as of previous days I think the North is the direction to look for any cold over the coming weeks rather than anywhere else as an eventual ridging of High pressure North through the Atlantic will give us our best shot of any real wintry cold and some of the white stuff.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 1ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Slack pressure over the UK will prevail with weak troughs slowly clearing SE but returning SW across the East later today. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to highlight a generally flat Jet Stream pattern with it's West to East axis lying across the North of the UK around High pressure to the South. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows High pressure dictating the conditions across the UK through the period. The positioning alternates between a point to the South with milder Westerly winds covering the UK and to the SW and West at times later allowing polar air to cross SE behind successive and stronger cold fronts with rain at times later followed by cold and frosty weather with some wintry showers towards the North and East later THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in status although the push of colder air is less pronounced for the most part. It does show a separate High pressure crossing East across the UK and on to Europe making for more in the way of frost and fog for a time before colder air slips South again late in the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run mirrors the operational well this morning with mild Westerly winds affecting all of the UK with the North seeing some rain at times while the South stays fairly dry and benign day and night. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles also show a fairly flat pattern with persistent High pressure to the South and SW minataining generally benign Westerly winds across the UK with just the briefest intervention of colder conditions from the North at times before a pattern reset takes place repeatedly. UKMO UKMO today shows a riddge of High pressure about to topple SE across the UK late next week and weekend replacing the brief cold Northerly airflow across the UK after midweek. Dry and bright weather for many with frost and fog patches at night seem likely in rather cold conditions. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a ridge of High pressure across the UK for the period with a NE flow over the South and a SW flow to the NW with dry and fine weather for many with areas of fog and frost in relatively dry and benign condions the most likely forecast GEM GEM shows a similar pattern to the rest with High pressure to the SW persistent and instrumental in providing a lot of dry and quiet weather for the UK with areas of cloud, mist, fog and frost at times the biggest factors controlling our weather. Occasional interventions of colder and more unstable weather will hit the North at times and these are indicated to perhaps trend South somewhat late in the run. NAVGEM NAVGEM brings a change to colder weather than the rest following a cold front South later this week with new High pressure forming near Scotland before drifting towards Scandinavia and allowing cold NE winds across the South to be complicated by disrupting Low pressure feeding in from the NW or West later with wintry showers and perhaps more generall rain and hill snow possible after next weekend. ECM ECM this morning is reverted back to a flatter pattern with High pressure always to the SW steering depressions crossing East to the North away from most of Britain. Winds will remain between West and North and generally light. Average temperatures will prevail with patchy night frost and fog mixed with cloudier and benign periods when a little rain in the North is possible. THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensembles continue to paint a poor picture for thos looking for cold over the UK with the pattern of High pressure to the SW or South and Low pressure to the North of the UK maintained on the 10 Day Mean chart today. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown none of which point to sustained and notable cold weather. MY THOUGHTS Time is my enemy this morning so a short report from me again today but the general message is one of a revolving pattern based around a general message of high pressure to the South and SW and Low pressure to the North of the UK the general theme. With pressure quite High overall the weather will base itself as relatively dry with just brief outbreaks of rain from occasional troughs moving down from the NW at times. As each of these take place some colder air will be dragged briefly down with them accentuating the risk of frost and fog before milder and cloudier West winds return. Long term today I can only see a slow trend for the High to slowly pull back closer to it's native home of the Azores allowing slightly deeper encroachment across the UK of cold fronts from the NW at times later allowing a bigger chance of permitting some wintry showers across the NE in particular but even then I'm afraid such an event would likely be short-lived. I expect to see further slight changes in model output over the coming days, all revolving around attacks from the North in varying degrees of penetration but at this stage with the angle of Jet flow and the positioning of such pointing to be where shown only temporary phases of this remain likely taking us out towards mid December.

Try here http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=meto;sess= Up to 96hrs are not available from many servers. Best use the fax Charts for these times available on Metoceil

Grey and overcast this morning in a noticeable but mild SE wind. Currently 9.1C. Full details and webcam image below: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

Grey and overcast this morning in a noticeable but mild SE wind. Currently 9.1C. Full details and webcam image below: http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS WHERE I GIVE MY TWICE A DAY ANALYSIS OF THE OUTPUT FROM 5 OF THE MOST POWERFUL WEATHER COMPUTERS IN THE WORLD AND GIVE AN INSIGHT AS WHAT WEATHER MAY BE UP AND COMING ACCORDING TO THESE SUPERCOMPUTERS. HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 28TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY NOVEMBER 30TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A weakening Easterly or SE flow across the UK will back ENE tomorrow and decrease. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Becoming mostly dry with just a little rain chiefly in the North at times. Some frost and fog patches in variable temperatures. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow undulating North and South across the UK over the next week on the Northern flank of High pressure to the SW. In Week 2 a flat West to East flow over Scotland will persist with little change through that period between High pressure to the South and Low to the North of Scotland. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows that High pressure firstly to the SW and later to the South of the UK ensures the UK lies in a broad and eventually quite mild Westerly flow with little significant weather features affecting the UK. Some rain from fronts to the NW will undoubtedly affect the North and West at times but the South will see a lot of dry and potentially mild if rather cloudy weather with very minimal amounts of frost and fog. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in structure as it moves through the period with the caveat that High pressure slips further away to the South later in the run with more influence of cloud and rain off the Atlantic and the hint of a pattern change from the North right out at the extremities of the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run mirrors the operational well this morning with mild Westerly winds affecting all of the UK with the North seeing some rain at times while the South stays fairly dry and benign day and night. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles show that the most likely scenario over the next few weeks is covered well by the operational, control and parallel runs in that there is strong agreement from most of the members that mild Westerly winds on a flat West to East pattern will become dominant through the period covered with limited amounts of fog and frost. UKMO UKMO today shows a belt of High pressure stretching from the Azores to SW England by next Thursday with most of the UK dry and bright with patchy frost and fog but temperatures close to average outside of where any fog lingers. The NW will be rather cloudier and breezier but milder than elsewhere. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a weak cold front clearing SE through the middle of next week as pressure then builds from the SW. A lot of cloud at times will clear midweek to a chillier period with frost and fog patches in the South in light winds. GEM GEM is the shining beacon for cold lovers this morning as it replaces quiet and benign High pressure based weather through much of next week with a plunge of cold Arctic air and Low pressure next weekend with spells of rain and showers falling as sleet and snow to quite modest levels anywhere in the UK under cold and fresh NNE winds. NAVGEM NAVGEM shows High to the SW and Low to the NE by next weekend with a chilly and fresh NW flow with colder weather with a few wintry showers across the North and East for a time soon to be replaced by a cold and frosty ridge moving in from the West next weekend. ECM ECM this morning is not without interest for cold fans as the High pressure remains a little further out in the Atlantic and with lower pressure towards Scandinavia the tendency for cold fronts to cross South over Britain later next week is high with wintry showers flooding South briefly later next week before milder air topples over the top of a ridge crossing SE over the weekend. THE ECM ENSEMBLES High pressure towards the SW of the UK remains the powerhouse within the 10 Day ensemble chart with Westerly and relatively mild weather engulfing the UK with limited rainfall for the NW and even more limited amounts of frost and fog across the South. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The theme remains for the UK to lie under the influence of High pressure most likely positioned just to the SW of the UK over the period with a variety of long term solutions shown. MY THOUGHTS The weather patterns shown by the models all hinge around the positioning of High pressure close to the South or SW of the UK and the resultant weather brought about by that positioning. The one certainty is that nowhere is going to see much in the way of rain over the next two weeks with the main thrust of Atlantic depressions held well away to the North. GFS this morning has Black Friday fever and is a horror show on all sets of it's output this morning showing a very flat West to East Jet flow over Scotland and keeping High pressure over France with resultant mild and benign conditions for much of the UK. Conversely GEM is the bright light for cold fans illustrating a plunge into a wintry scenario with cold and wintry North winds and snow for some as Low pressure develops and plunges SE across the UK then NW Europe next weekend. ECM this morning has some interest in that field too as it brings a brief Northerly late next week with enough potency to deliver some wintry showers and some sharp night frost before the inevitable toppler ridge follows a few days after. What all this means is that the models are struggling to handle how and where High pressure is likely to sit later next week and small synoptic differences in positioning can have major impacts on surface conditions across the UK. From what I can see there are three options on the table. 1. The High takes a GFS storyline with benign and mild Westerly winds taking precedence with limited weather features of any kind. 2 The High centre sits over the South of the UK with more in the way of frost and fog as a result in the Southern half of the UK or 3 the High sits out further into the Atlantic with a trend for pressure to be lower over Scandinavia helping as a catalyst to aid cold Northerly winds to cross down over the UK albeit briefly before a toppler ridge follows. The Jury is out on which of these options will actually verify but I will say the GEM operational though mouthwatering for many is probably a little extreme but nice to see anyway. So despite a lot of disappointing and benign looking conditions borne out of a flat Westerly pattern is shown this morning there is some more interesting output on offer and as I indicated a day or so ago I wouldn't mind placing a wager on our best chance of a first taste of winter will come from the North, something akin to ECM or GEM this morning given time.

The pattern of a few days ago did lead me to believe that cold was more likely than not given the charts at that time. I, as many didn't expect to see such a shift of emphasis of the last few days of model output hence my change of view. I can only report what the charts tell me at the time plus give a bit of my 40 years of experience in the field to give a personal view of what might happen. sometimes I get it wrong as we all do and on this occasion I did. FWIW I now think we are stuck with a mid latitude High in just the wrong place for widespread cold for some considerable time but lets hope I'm wrong on that one too.