Gibby

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY DECEMBER 22ND 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY DECEMBER 23RD 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow will continue to affect England and Wales with a slow moving trough near to the borders between England and Scotland slow moving. A colder westerly flow will affect the far North of Britain. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Changeable weather with rain at times and wintry showers at others. It will be cold and windy at times with some overnight frosts. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Foreecast is for the flow to continue it's undulating pattern over the next week or so with the longer term trend still indicative of a relatively flat pattern across the UK between High pressure near the Azores and Low pressure to the NW and North. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning maintains it's prediction of rapid deepening of a storm system post Christmas as it winds it's way from the North of the UK to Europe. After a quiet and chilly Christmas with frost a period of strong winds and gales become replaced by cold North winds and snow or wintry showers on the western flank of the Low. As this moves away winds decrease under rising pressure with bright days and sharp frosts and perhaps a little sleet or snow in the SW for a time as a small disturbance bumps into High pressure over the UK. Then as we move into the New Year the default pattern of High to the SW and Low to the NW with mild and strong Westerly winds prevail. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run makes much less of the storm system with regard to the UK post Christmas but still potent enough to bring strong winds and cold weather under Northerly winds with wintry showers in the North and East. The cold winds then die away as pressure becomes High over the UK with cold and frosty weather prevailing over and into the New Year. Pressure then transfers East to become High over Northern Europe and brings a blast of cold East winds across the Uk towards the end of the run with snow showers in places as a result. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run appears to be fairly similar in storm development to the North of the UK post Christmas with rain and strong winds for all before cold Northerly winds and eventual High pressure take over with frosty night and wintry showers in places for a time. Then the UK High cell drifts South later to set a regular pattern of strong and milder west winds and rain at times late in the run. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles do show the temporary chance of cold weather from quite a few members post Christmas with the overlying trend thereafter for the cold to lift out in preference to milder Westerly winds between High to the South and Low to the North into the New Year. UKMO UKMO's development of the storm is more muted with it being just a standard deep Winter depression held well up to the North of Scotland bringing the strongest winds and rain to the North and NE with all areas seeing some rain before chilly NW winds and wintry showers take over by the end of next weekend. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show slow progress SE oof troughs across NW Britain replacing the mild and windy weather with quieter High pressure weather over Christmas with frost and night and light winds. Further fronts and increasing SW winds reach the NW by Day 5. GEM GEM today shows the UK coming under a very mobile westerly pattern following Christmas with rain and strong winds alternating with colder and brighter periods with some wintry showers in places. The storm system after Christmas looks not at all threatening now blending instead with the overall pattern under strong Westerly winds and average temperatures. NAVGEM NAVGEM's does show a more direct hit from the storm after Christmas as it drifts down the North sea enhancing a cold north flow for a time with sleet and snow showers quite widesly in the North and East following the rain and gales of previous days. High pressure then feed across Britain with fine and frosty weather developing as we move towards the end of 2014. ECM ECM this morning shows probably the most direct hit from the storm after christmas this morning sending it SE down across the UK and on into the Meditteranean by the end of the run. This would bring rain and gales followed by cold North or NE winds and wintry showers post Christmas and then a shift of emphasis towards fine and cold, frosty weather develops for many with pressure holding High across Germany to the UK on Day 10. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is made up of a varity of options but with a bias towards the default pattern of Low near Greenland and High south of the Azores with changeable weather with rain at times under average temperatures the most likely poitn the UK wll find itself in at day 10. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS While the trend towards the severest risk of a marked storm post Christmas has receded for now the new trend appears to focus on the greater persistence of High pressure close to the UK thereafter slowing the breakdown from the West which still holds the greatest trend longer term. MY THOUGHTS While the overall trend in the short to mid term remains as before the focus on the main storm event post Christmas have taken a more relaxed view on it's positioning and severity in the way it affects the UK. It is still shown though to give all areas a good blow with rain followed by colder conditions with wintry showers as the wind swings Northerly on the exiting East of the depression. The new theme appears to be a greater reluctance to bring the Atlantic back in as quickly with a strong surge of High pressure over the UK towards the New Year. What's more interesting is that this High pressure extends into Europe and with lower pressure held over the Med it is shown far enough North by a few models to allow a cold East flow across the South of the UK in particular with some further wintry or snow showers in the East and more importantly keeping things cold and the Atlantic at bay for a time. This is specifically shown by the GFS Parallel run but is hinted at by ECM too at the Day 10 point with cold frosty weather maintainedover the UK should it verify. However, having said all that there is also a lot of support for a flattening of the pattern into a mobile Westerly flow between Low pressure near Iceland and Greenland and High pressure over the Azores with strong winds across the UK delivering rain at times under mild conditions overall. In my opinion the period post Christmas remains a very fluid situation and the behaviour of the deep Low expected at that time could have major repercussions on the emphasis of pattern resulting thereafter. If it's final resting place lies to the SE or over the Meditteranean then High pressure could hold cold and frosty weather in situ over the UK ala GFS(p) or ECM or if it floats away further East over mainland Europe the pattern will quickly flatten to one of zonal West winds and rain at times and temperatures close to average if not a little above in the South. All should be revealed over the coming days as we near the event and the models hopefully get a more conclusive handle on the timing, depth and positioning of the Low.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY DECEMBER 21ST 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 22ND 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A mild SW flow will become established over England and Wales while a cold front slips slowly South over Scotland tomorrow becoming slow moving over Northern England. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Possibly becoming more generally colder and unsettled post Christmas with some snow and ice in places, at least for a time and chiefly over the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Foreecast is for the flow to gradually settle into a familiar pattern of becoming quite flat, crossing West to East in the vicinity of the UK between a large Azores anticyclone and Low pressure to the North and NW. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning in general reflects the pattern that we have seen throughout the Winter so far and that is that repeated attempts of cold NW winds come down over the UK to be followed by a collapsing ridge of High pressure crossing from the West and being replaced by renewed spells of SW or West winds with rain at times in mild air. The two pronged cold attack both at Christmas and again towards the New Year have been reduced to no more than brief affairs on this run today. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is somewhat different in asmuch as the second attac post Christmas is much more potent being driven by an intense depression crossing SE down the North Sea and on into Europe. Cold and wintry weather with snow for some would then slowly be replaced by quiet and calm conditions under a strong Winter High with widespread harsh frosts and freezing fog before milder SW winds and rain at times are shown to take over at the end of the run. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run appears to follow a similar trend to the operational in making less of the storm cell after Christmas and keeping the pattern rather flatter, alternating the periods of mild and damp weather with colder and brighter weather with wintry showers in the North going well into 2015. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles do show the temporary chance of cold weather from quite a few members post Christmas with the overlying trend thereafter for the cold to lift out in preference to milder Westerly winds between High to the South and Low to the North into the New Year. UKMO UKMO today maintains the colder push into Christmas quickly followed by a powerful storm system close to Northern Scotland soon after Christmas with severe or even storm force Westerly winds and heavy rain likely by Day 6 across the British Isles. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a couple of cold fronts straddling the UK as they edge very slowly SE over the next 72 hours. By Christmas they clear the SE making for colder NW flow with scattered wintry showers over the North for Christmas with High pressure building from the SW. GEM GEM today shows the smae attern as the rest of the output. In regard to the storm post Christmas it develops West of Ireland after which it drifts East over the UK with strong winds and heavy rain being replaced by cold North winds briefly as we approach the New Year with snow showers quite widely. At the end of the run a ridge os collapsing across the UK being the precursor of a pattern reset to milder west winds and rain at times soon after. NAVGEM NAVGEM's runshows the storm developing to the North and ttansferring to Scandinavia in a weeks time with severe gales and heavy rain being replaced by cold North or NW winds and snow showers particularly over the North. ECM ECM this morning shows that the mild SW winds after Christmas quickly become replaced by cold weather behind the storm which transfers East quickly to Europe with a strong pressure rise close to the SW by the end of the run. Heavy rain and gales post Christmas would be replaced by snow showers for many before quieter frosty weather slowly takes control by the end of the run in much lighter North or NW'lies. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart reflects a pattern made up of the majority of members showing High pressure down to the SW and lower or Low pressure remaining to the NW, North and possibly East of the UK with the mix of milder and wetter conditions alternating with colder conditions with wintry showers at times in the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends this morning show strong support for a cold and potentially stormy interlude post Christmas with the strongest trend being for this to be short-lived to a likely return of milder Atlantic Westerly winds again as we move into 2015. MY THOUGHTS The models remain all over the place with regard to the development and positioning of a Post Christmas Storm which is shown in some shape or form by all models this morning. As a result of this the evolutions following this point in time could be thrown into turmoil by models not being able to nail down the intensity, movement and engagement of cold air around it. The general theme remains for a deep Low to develop near Northern Britain before it quickly moves off into Northern Europe. There looks a good chance that all areas will see a good blow from this with potential for severe gales and heavy rain. There is also of course potential for snow, probably unproblematic for many Southern areas but as the cold polar flow behind the Low gets pulled strongly South blizzards in shower form is expected to affect the Northern hills and mountains. The weather thereafter as hinted at earlier will be driven by the final resting place of this storm in relation to what remains of High pressure over the Atlantic by that point. The most favoured and less desirable option appears to be for any High pressure in the Atlantic at the end of the year will likely drift SE in the form of a ridge with a period of cold and frosty weather before mild Atlantic winds take hold again with rain at times. The pattern though is very fluid and any changes in model thoughts on the behaviour in the development of the post Christmas storm event could continue to throw very different evolutions into the mix over model runs of the coming days. However, to bring a sustained cold weather event we need to somehow hold higher pressure up to the NW and less power to the Azores High and in neither instance within the ensembles does that look likely currently so my best stab goes with a short and sharp cold snap post Christmas before a mobile Atlantic feed takes back over control as we move into 2015.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY DECEMBER 20TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY DECEMBER 21ST 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cool NW flow will back SW and strengthen further as a warm front sweeps East over the UK tomorrow, active in the North but very weak in the South. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Possibly becoming more generally colder and unsettled post Christmas with some snow and ice in places, at least for a time and chiefly over the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Foreecast is for the flow to gradually be squeezed further South than currently lying near or to the South of the UK before a trend to shift it back towards the North somewhat later maintaining a pattern of Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South after a brief hiatus.. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a mild SW flow in the run up to Christmas before Christmas itself turns rather chillier with overnight frost but bright crisp days as High pressure moves over the UK from the West. This then steadily collapses away SE in the post Christmas and New Year period with rain at times in the North and West spreading to all areas with a cold plunge of air from the North post Christmas with snow showers in places. This pattern then collapses South to reinstate mild and windy weather under a Westerly flow to end the run with rain at times. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run also shows a shot of cold Northerly winds under a powerful Low pressure just to the East of the UK post Christmas with snow in places, considerable for a few. Later in the period the pattern resets and flattens as the Low to the East moves away with a cpollapsing ridge over the UK and a mild SW flow with rain at times returning as we move into 2015. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows a brief colder period when strong winds and some snow are possible across the North and East after Christmas but High pressure and frost quickly takes over from the West which in turn becomes followed by milder weather with rain at times under an Atlantic flow later. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles do show the temporary chance of cold weather from quite a few members post Christmas with the overlying trend thereafter for the cold to lift out in preference to milder Westerly winds between High to the South and Low to the North into the New Year. UKMO UKMO today shows the weather turning colder as we move towards Christmas as High pressure lies close to SW England by Boxing Day with frosty nights but with any wintry showers for the North in the NW flow on Christmas Day dissolving away later as cloud reaches the NW at the end of Boxing Day with milder SW winds developing here. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a sustained warm sector period of weather across Southern Britain between tomorrow and Christmas Eve as moist SW winds blow strongly with rain and drizzle over the hills. The fronts straddling the North will give heavier rain before they all clear SE over Christmas Eve to leave Christmas itself in rising pressure and a chilly NW wind with wintry showers for a time over the North likely on Christmas Day GEM GEM today shows a much more classic Wintry evolution over the UK post Christmas as the chilly anticyclonic Christmas period gives way to a brief milder day or so with rain before cold Northerly winds with widespread strong and cold winds delivering plenty of snow showers to all areas especially heavy and substantial across the North and East with sharp overnight frosts for all. The end of the run shows High pressure strong and locked in across Greenland. NAVGEM NAVGEM's run today shows a very similar Christmas to the rest before a deep Low over the North Sea brings rain and cold NW winds down across the UK post Christmas with wintry showers in the North and West but not as pronounced or severe as GEM. ECM ECM this morning shows that the mild SW winds after Christmas quickly become replaced by a chilly North flow with snow showers in places with a deeper dig of cold over Europe. The UK lies on the Western periphery of this with snow showers restricted to Northern and Eastern parts and frost at night more widespread rather than snow. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart is not as good for coldies today as the pattern is flatter with a NW flow across the UK rather than a direct Northerly. High pressure is stubbornly High down to the SW and pressure is becoming lower to the NW all spelling less cold conditions following any colder period post Christmas. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends this morning show strong support for a cold post Christmas period with much disagreeance on how much, little and how long this influences the cold conditions across the UK post Christmas. MY THOUGHTS The Jury is still out on the details surrounding the period Post Christmas with all models indicating cold weather coming to the UK over Christmas itself although this will be the largely dry and frosty kind of cold. Then as a milder blip crosses with some rain a more serious plunge of cold North winds is possible with gales, heavy rain and snow all possible for a time. It's at this point that all models show difficulty in finding an agreed solution to this phase of the weather with some hanging on to the cold and potentially snowy theme, notably GEM while GFS quickly changes to pattern back to a mild Westerly type as we move into the New Year, a theme supported by it's ensemble data too by quite a few members. ECM doen't look that alarming to me today and it, although being a bit divergent run to run like the rest lately is I believe one of the best model to use for guidance in these conditions. So taking all this morning's data in a nutshell it looks like changeable weather with marked temperature variations will be maintained over the run up to Christmas and the period thereafter too with the chance of a strong surge of cold and potential snowy weather especially in the North for a time at least later. More runs are needed to pin down the detail of the events after Christmas and the New Year though if I was to put my spin on things today I feel that while a period of cold weather for all is coming post Christmas when we all see a little snow falling I don't somehow feel comfortable in saying anything other than it will be a more pronounced but short interlude of Winter than of late before the milder Westerlies return but I hope I'm wrong.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY DECEMBER 20TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cooler NW flow will weaken tomorrow as a ridge of High pressure crosses East over the UK. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Possibly becoming more generally colder and unsettled post Christmas with some snow and ice in places, at least for a time and chiefly over the North. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Foreecast is for the flow to gradually be squeezed further South than currently lying near or to the South of the UK between High pressure over Europe and near Greenland and Low pressure to the North of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a mild SW flow in the run up to Christmas before Christmas itself turns rather chillier with overnight frost but bright crisp days as High pressure moves over the UK from the West. This then steadily collapses away SE in the post Christmas and New Year period with rain at times in the North and West and temperatures recovering to the mild side of average for many. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The Parallel run is less bullish on holding mild weather exclusively across the UK after Christmas alternating spells of it with brighter and colder conditions with night frost but very limited precipitation of a wintry note, even over the North. The run ends on a mild and breezy note with a long fetch SW flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run too shows a lot of mild SW or West winds across the UK through the two weeks with some rain at times more especially across the North and West. A few brighter and chillier spells are shown too especially early in the period coinciding with the Christmas break. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GFS Ensembles do show the temporary chance of cold weatehr from quite a few members post Christmas with the overlying trend thereafter for the cold to lift out in preference to milder Westerly winds between High to the South and Low to the North into the New Year. UKMO UKMO today shows the weather turning colder as we move towards Christmas as a mild SW flow early in the week is replaced by a drift into colder conditions with frosts at night and wintry showers over the North and East on Christmas Day. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold front clearing the SE today with a brief chillier NW flow ahead of another broad warm sector especially across the South before finally colder air from the NW drifts down behind a series of cold fronts from the NW towards Christmas.. GEM GEM today shows a colder interlude at Christmas with overnight frosts gradually giving way to milder SW as pressure falls ro the NW gradually developing into a deep centre and delivering spells of gales and heavy rain to the UK on a SW flow late in the year.. NAVGEM NAVGEM's run today shows a chilly Christmas and a weak trough crossing the South could give a spell of rain for a time on Christmas Day before a frosty period develops by Boxing Day under a chilly NW flow.. ECM ECM this morning shows that after a quiet and anticyclonic Christmas with frost by night and cold bright days the weather turns potentially quite wet and stormy from the NW between Christmas and the New Year. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart supports the highest chance being that High pressure will lie to the West of the UK with a trough to the East of the UK supporting a Northerly component most likely over the UK. This supports a mix of cold and bright weather with some wintry showers with the Jet Stream at Southerly latitudes to the East of the UK and higher over the North Atlantic with the UK lying on the cold side of the flow. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends this morning have been watered down considerably in the incidence of cold weather post Christmas and while some cold options are still shown from reliable Ensemble data there is an equal amount of milder weather shown too from our American partners. MY THOUGHTS I was very careful with my wording yesterday and chose to use the word potential wisely because that is what was shown. Much of the output today has either watered down or indeed removed the risk of marked cold weather over the UK that was shown yesterday and preferred instead to maintain High pressure to the South and SE of Britain. Pressure does rise over the North Atlantic sufficient from some output to at least give a window of opportunity for something to at least try to come down from the North and the ECM Ensembles support at least a period of chilly Northerlies post Christmas though in the transitory period a spell of high winds and rain is probable. GFS today has gone totally Atlantic biased bathing the UK in mild SW winds for much of the time and this is supported from it's ensemble group too on the whole. I'm afraid the problem as I have indicated all the time of late is the Jet profile across the Atlantic post Christmas is not conducive to give us a lengthy cold spell while the flow stays North of an Atlantic High pressure. While the flow does move South over Europe towards the Meditteranean it seems unable to ridge North far enough North over the Atlantic long enough to stop the inevitable collapsing ridge pattern that we have seen all too often. The net result is from GFS that the pattern flattens out entirely with the polar vortex returned to the North and High pressure to the South bringing balmy SW winds and rain at times to the UK. The one thing that has been removed though is the Azores High for now and it seems very unfortunate for the UK to have it replaced by a European version to hinder an otherwise good chance of cold given that the tendency is to want to bring pressure higher to the NW which would otherwise have opened the door fully from the North. However, we have to sit and watch as things unfld over the coming days as things remain far from certain post Christmas. I would strongly urge folks to not take each run literally as there are a lot of wild swings from run to run and model to model currently and while the good charts of yesterday have been suspended for now I wouldn't be surprised if they don't return again over the next few days but I will withold my input until tomorrow morning before giving a more definitive report on proceedings likely up to the New Year over the UK.

Todays 12zs this far is a prime reason why I stopped doing twice daily analysis on this and the other forum as well as my website. I will make no comment until the morning runs before I throw the towel in on the cold.

When there are major shifts between outputs run to run it generally means that the pattern is very volatile and could go one of several different ways which is why I don't take credence to individual runs and hence why I only commentate on one run a day (the 00zs). This eliminates any post stress that occurs after every 6 hour run doesn't show what was shown on the preceding one and gives the models a chance to iron out such swings into a more calculated 24 hour outcome. I admit day to day too provides some interesting comparisons at times usually when cold weather threatens the UK. Every brick has to fall in the correct place for the UK to receive the holy grail of snow and cold most want to see and there is a 90% chance of that not happening on an island such as ours lying on the Eastern end of a large Ocean as we do and with a usual prevailing Westerly wind across it . It only takes something seemingly quite small synoptically to move in a different way to expected to mean quite different results at the surface.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY THURSDAY DECEMBER 18TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE FRIDAY DECEMBER 19TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong and mild WSW flow will be replaced by a colder NW flow later today, tonight and tomorrow behind a SE moving cold front. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West with snow on hills there at times. Becoming colder post Christmas with some snow and ice in places, at least for a time. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow slowly moving South to lie South of the UK post Christmas as pressure rises over the Atlantic and to the NW temporarily with Low pressure affecting the UK and NW Europe and High pressure near the Meditteranean. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a mild SW flow in the run up to Christmas with occasional rain and drizzle in a strong WSW flow. Christmas itself is shown to be rather cold with a NW airflow and some wintry showers across the North and East with some frost at night. Post Christmas and in the lead up to the New Year a cold plunge between Low pressure to the East and High to the West would give rise to our best chance yet this season of snow showers more generally in a keen North wind and harsh night frosts. The cold would then most likely be maintained into the New Year as High pressure becomes dominant over or near the UK with hard frosts and freezing fog likely events under such synpoptics. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN As one would expect in the first week of it's run and the lead up to Christmas the mild weather the operational shows is duplicated with a similar scenario over Christmas too of a chillier NW flow with wintry showers, especially in the North with frost at night. Post Christmas the UK comes under onslaught fom a bitter North and later NE flow as High pressure builds strongly over the NW Atlantic and in the Greenland area. There would plenty of snow showers and even longer spells of snow especially in the East and perhaps SE for a time with widespread hard frosts at night and temperatures struggling to freezing point by day too in places. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows similar synoptcs to the other two in the run up to Christmas and indeed Christmas itself before the cold plunge from the North takes place soon after. However, on this run the plunge is less dominant and is quickly shunted East by sinking High pressure to the West of the UK allowing a milder Westerly or NW flow to round the High and down across the UK towards the New year with cloudy and benign conditions in milder temperatures likely then. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES While in some ways I like the Ensembles this morning with some mouthwatering synoptics shown for the snow hungry fraternity my concern lies with the longevity of such an attack and pressure rise to the NW. There is plenty of evidence for this to subside later in the period to return less cold conditions across the UK in an unfavourable Jet flow late in the period. UKMO UKMO today shows the UK under a strong Westerly or SW flow to start next week lying between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. This maintains mild and in places unusually mild weather with rain and drizzle at times until Christmas Eve sees a cold front crossing SE over the UK with colder temperatures, bright weather with some wintry showers in the North as we enter Christmas. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a cold front clearing the SE tomorrow to leave a cooler and showery NW flow across the UK. Then a returning and large warm sector behind a warm front advances across the UK later in the 5 day period with mild WSW winds and occasional rain and drizzle for all to start the Christmas Week. GEM GEM also maintains a mild Westerly flow predominating across the UK through the beginning of next week before a cold fron crosses SE towards Christmas Eve leaving Christmas in a rather cold and showery NW flow, deepening in intensity as we exit Christmas in response to a strong pressure rise across the Atlantic with a deep Low pressure area developing over Scotland by Day 10 with cyclonic and cold winds across the UK with showers or longer periods of rain, sleet and snow for all, the snow mostly but not exclusively concentrated towards higher levels everywhere. NAVGEM NAVGEM's term of just 180hrs makes it harder to decipher where the model takes us thereon but as far as it goes it too shows a chillier NW flow across the UK at Christmas following a mild start to Christmas week in WSW winds and rain and drizzle. To my eyes it looks less confident in developing the cold depth that some of the other output shows post Christmas but this is speculative to my untrained eye. ECM ECM this morning shows a classic example of close but no cigar with many of the ingredients to bring cold to the UK thwarted on this run by pressure too High over Southern Europe and High pressure near Greenland only serving to spawn large and wet depressions close to the UK as the cold arctic winds engage with the warmer air to the South of the UK. While Christmas itself would turn increasingly cold and wintry in places with some snow in showery form especially on Boxing Day it looks like wet and wild weather could be developing post Christmas rather than cold and snowy but I'm sure that there will plenty of changes shown in this evoluton over the coming days. ECM 10 DAY MEAN The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart supports the highest chance being that High pressure will lie to the West of the UK with Low pressure over Scandinavia with a cold Northerly flow across the UK with snow showers in the North and East in particular. This overall slant is made up of a variety of members supporting cold and snowier solutions along with some milder Westerly ones under a sinking High. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends this morning have maintained their strongest indication of a pattern change afoot as the Azores High becomes less influential as pressure rises to the West and perhaps NW with a stronger dig of cold North winds at least for a time likely post Christmas. MY THOUGHTS The charts this morning do show the most potential for those seeking a pattern change to something more seasonal than they have at anytime so far this Winter with some mouthwatering examples of cold, snowy charts turning up in some of the output this morning. The GFS Parallel run is a real gem for those liking a sustained cold and frosty anticyclonic spell following a snowy period and would give rise to some very low temperatures should it verify. Others including the ECM operational show a much more tentative dip into icy waters as it quickly turns a cold Northerly into a cyclonic Westerly as the opposing air masses generate powerful Low pressure close to the UK later with a more patchy mix of rain, sleet and snow. However, if the positioning of this trough is further to the East then it too could dive us into a direct Northerly plunge soon after with a more widespread risk of snowfall. My concern still lies as last night that an Atlantic High with the Jet flow riding over the top would eventually sink the pressure pattern South and allow milder air to slip down across the UK around it's Northern flank towards the start of 2015 especially if pressure is not permitted to ridge high enough into the Greenland area and there are plenty of options shown for this to be the end result unfortunately. The ECM 10 Day Mean Chart shows good support for Northerly winds to be the most likely option in 10 days time with snowfall likely for those areas prone to it under a direct Northerly which may not do much for the majority of the UK under shelter of such a flow. If I had to take a stab at where the ECM mean takes us in the following days after Day 10 I would edge my bets that a UK High of sorts would be likely with very cold and frosty weather likely rather than sustained snowy weather. However, these are very exciting times for model watchers as at last there is a positive sign of change and there is likely to be many ups and downs over the coming days while the computer's number crunch the solutions but I would urge that the words 'cautious optimism' should be adhered too in the run up to Christmas for your own sanity as nothing is a given when it comes to predicting cold and snow in the UK in Winter and if things fail to materialise it won't be the first time I and I'm sure others on here and elsewhere end up eating humble pie with my own family when things go belly up. Here's to another day of frenetic model watching.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A strong and mild WSW flow will be maintained across the UK with troughs embedded within the SW and a cold front close to NW Scotland moving SE from tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West with snow on hills there at times. Temperatures alternating close to or a little above or below average day to day but possibly becoming generally colder later. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow slowly moving South to lie South of the UK post Christmas as pressure rises over the Atlantic and to the NW temporarily. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows shows signs of a pattern change as we leave Christmas and enter the period up to the New Year. Until then it is shown to be business as usual with alternating periods of mild and dam weather with colder and more showery periods, these most prolific across the North with wintry showers. Towarsd the end of the run including the New Year it looks like being quite cold under a Northerly bias with wintry showers for all even in the South and widespread night frost before less cold and wet conditions cross SE in the first days of New Year. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run too shows a similar evolution to the operational with a stronger North flow post Christmas with strong and cold NNW winds and snow showers rattling down across the UK with night frost before higher pressure slipping in from the West and NW deliver cold and frosty weather at the end of the period. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows a less bullish show of colder weather post Christmas keeping the influence of a cold NW flow to a minimum before High pressure reasserts itself to the South of the UK and mild SW winds affecting the UK with rain at times in the run up to the New Year. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles members heave shifted at least in part to indicate a shift towards a colder snap soon after Christmas as Low pressure enters Scandinavia and pressure rises North through the Atlantic. At this stage this surge of cold isn't shown to last too long as milder West winds in a default position of High to the South and Low to the North into the New Year. UKMO UKMO today shows the UK under a strong Westerly or SW flow to start next week lying between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. Taking us until Tuesday the weather will be cloudy and mild with some rain at times in a blustery WSW wind. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex series of troughs crossing East and later SE over the UK with a mild ad string WSW flow turning to a colder NW 'ly over the start of the weekend before mild and strong Westerly winds return for Sunday. GEM GEM also maintains a mild Westerly flow predominating across the UK until Christmas with a brief colder incursion with showers at the start of this coming weekend. Later in the run and over the Christmas period the weather will turn colder as Northerly breezes sweep South with some snow showers in exposed locations facing North principally near Western, Northern and Eastern coasts. NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains the strong Westerly flow often mild and cloudy with rain mixed with some short 24-48hr periods of brighter and colder weather when wintry showers could occur across the hills of the North primarily at the start to this coming weekend and again over Christmas. ECM ECM this morning doesn't really engage the cold weather across the UK at Christmas due to deepening Low pressure areas sweeping strong winds and rain across the UK with any cold weather with snow on hills lying on the Northern side of depressions over Southern Britain. Up until this point the pattern of mild and cloudy weather with rain at times prevails with a colder incursion briefly at this weekend. ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles this morning finally indicate a strong chance of a pattern shift as we come out of Christmas and beyond as the mild WSW flow between High pressure to the South and Low to the North finally changes to a strong rise of pressure over the NW Atlantic and Greenland sending a lot of members into Winter mode under Northerly winds with snow showers in places and frost at night. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends this morning have shown their strongest indication of a pattern change afoot as the Azores High becomes less influential as pressure rises to the west and perhaps NW with a stronger dig of cold North winds at least for a time likely post Christmas. MY THOUGHTS I have to say that I feel more encouraged this morning that a change in the weather is on the way albeit too late for Christmas and may not produce too much excitement for the South of the UK. The basic current pattern will be maintained up to Christmas with rain at times and milder air alternating with brief colder airmasses coming down from the NW. Most models show a marked cold front crossing SE over Christmas introducing a more substantial shot of cold air as pressure rises to the West and NW. It has to be noted though not all models support this view with some returning to a default status to that we have become accustomed to of late returning before the NEW Year. ECM does show colder weather coming into the mix around the UK but the induction of deep Low pressure areas over the UK hinder cold with gales and heavy rain shown post Christmas. The ECM Ensembles are much more encouraging than of late with a biased support of a Northerly flow likely as we leave Christmas and move towards the NEW Year with the all important rise of pressure shown to the West and NW. As is usual we are likely to see major shifts in outcomes within further runs over the coming days, both ebbing and flowing with regard to colder conditions but it does indicate that something is afoot in the models this morning and despite cross model differences there is some common ground between them all. So although it is still a way off I'm sure there are many folk who are looking for cold and snow who will raise their eyebrows with interest from the current set of output this morning.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY DECEMBER 16TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 17TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure across the UK will move away East with an active warm front following bringing very mild WSW winds across the UK tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West with snow on hills there at times. Temperatures alternating close to or a little above or below average day to day but overall no severe weather expected over the period. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the flow moving West to East across the UK in an undulating form as the polar front moves South then North again within the west to east flow. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a pattern which changes little over the period. Yes there are variations in day to day conditions with mild winds and rain alternating with colder and more showery interludes but away from high ground most areas away from Northern high ground will see nothing wintry falling from the sky through the period up to the New year with frosts at night patchy and occasional. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run does show a window of opportunity around Christmas of a period of Northerly winds and some snow showers mostly iver the North while the South sees some rain or sleet for a time but other than that the pattern of High down to the South and SW and Low to the North persists or indeed returns after Christmas on the run up to the New Year. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run shows conditions which are conducive to a Westerly flow of weather being maintained with some days when mild and wet conditions prevail and then a couple of colder polar maritime air type days when sunshine and wintry showers dvelop along with a pathsy frost. Late in the run the weather is shown to become more deeply unsettled for all with rain and windy weather for all but still with colder periods with wintry showers, always most likely over the North. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles members in very basic terms though not without exception look like the best chance remains with a continuation of the Low pressure vortex lying to the North of the UK and High to the South all the way up to and including the New year period. In weather terms this means more rain and showers across the UK with average temperatures or a little above at times alternating with brief colder interludes with wintry showers in the North. UKMO UKMO today shows the UK under a strong Westerly flow to start next week lying between High pressure to the South and Low to the North. A cold front is shown to be approaching the UK from the NW early next week which will likely replace mild weather with some rain with colder and more showery weather as we move towards Christmas though with any wintry showers confined to the high ground of the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show a complex series of troughs crossing East over the UK from later today until Friday in moist and mild air. On Friday cold fronts move SE down over the UK clearing the UK by the weekend bringing a temporary colder and brighter NW flow with scattered wintry showers over the North. GEM GEM also maintains a mild Westerly flow predominating across the UK with just short colder injections of air with wintry showers in the North for a time this weekend and again over Christmas when more prolific amounts of frost may develop over the South for a time as High pressure moves in from the West, slowly slipping away SE post Christmas. NAVGEM NAVGEM maintains the strong Westerly flow often mild and cloudy with rain mixed with some short 24-48hr periods of brighter and colder weather when wintry showers could occur across the hills of the North. ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile and strong Westerly type pattern through the period with spells of rain and mild weather alternating with colder and brighter weather with wintry showers in the North. There are two separate shots of colder polar maritime air shown, one this weekend and another coinciding with Christmas but away from northern hills the chances of snow on lowland UK remain low over the period. ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles on face value do not look over inspiring though for the first time there is evidence of change afoot the other side of the Atlantic as Low pressure over Canada looks like beginning to support a rise of pressure over Greenland which although at this stage will mean little longer term a rise of pressure there could raise tha chances of a pattern change for the UK. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends away from the current pattern of weather across the UK remain weak and ill defined with the overwhelming majority in favour of only small variations in the overall pattern the most likely this side of the New Year. MY THOUGHTS The models continue to yo-yo between mild and strong Westerly winds with rain at times alternating with colder polar maritime air with wintry showers across the North. There are two separate attacks of the colder air from the NW, one this weekend although away from windward coasts and the usual hotspots in the North snow showers are unlikely on low ground but more widespread frost is likely over Friday and Saturday night. Then another perhaps more substantial attack over Christmas itself when if a lot of todays charts verify would mean we would wake to a sparkling and cold, frosty Christmas morning in a NW flow which I'm sure many of us would take over the mild and damp and sometimes wet conditions which prevail before and inbetween these two incursions. Having said all that though the pattern remains stubbornly resilient to meaningful change with the polar vortex remaining in place to the North of the UK and after a temporary weakening of High pressure to the South mid period the end of the run shows the status quo resumed with more periods of rain and wind on a Westerly flow around a strong Azores High and temperatures close to average or alternating just above or below as each front passes. While long term projections from the experts remain positive for a change of pattern later in the Winter it looks unlikely that any major shift will occur until early 2015 at the earliest which means we have to be satisfied with the same old brief incursions of cold from the NW over the coming weeks which will probably disappoint all but those living on the highest ground of the North or the ski resorts of Scotland if it's snow your looking for.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY DECEMBER 15TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY DECEMBER 16TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A slack and rather cold West or NW flow will back SW tomorrow as a warm front approached the West of the UK later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show the flow weakening and meandering North and South in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. It's trend though will be to edge first North a little and then back South through Week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a continuation of the Westerly flow through the next 5- 7 days with rain at times and further wintry showery incursions across the North. In the days that follow including the Christmas period a Westerly flow looks the most likely option with any colder air resticted towards the North where some wintry showers could occur over the hills while there will be spells of mild and damp weather with rain at times across the South. Late in the run deep Low pressure is shown close to the NW with rain and gales across all areas followed by a brief Northerly incursion on the rear end of the depression as it moves away East. Otherwise temperatures will be largely maintained close to the average for late December. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run as one would expect in the short term very similar to the operational in theme while later in it's run there is much more influence across Southern Britain from High pressure to the South with a lot of dry and benign conditions developing with patchy frost and fog in average temperatures. This is shown to have a knock on effect over the North too with less colder incursions from the NW and more mild and rainy SW winds instead away from the far North and later NE. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run is different in the aspect that High pressure albeit a small cell breaks this Westerly pattern towards Christmas as it drifts to Scandinavia from Scotland and intensifies later over Europe. This sets up a block there and brings the UK under mild SW winds with the Jet flow unfortunately for the UK riding over the block over Europe and keeping any cold air harmlessly away over Eastern Europe. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles members show a concoction of different options this morning ranging from mild Westerlies and various other options including Northerlies which could bring colder weather to the UK. However, the general theme is for a Westerly bias to be maintained towards Low pressure to the North and High to the South albeit weaker in structure than of late. UKMO UKMO today shows the UK lying in a unstable WNW flow at the end of the week and weekend between a Low pressure belt from Scandinavia to Iceland and High pressure between the Azores and Portugal. The basic alternation between mild and damp weather and colder showery conditions is shown to persist with the most emphasis on the colder, wintry shower type conditions held across Northern areas more than the South in quite fresh to strong winds at times. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts today show the current slack flow across the UK gradually becoming replaced by a stronger SW flow following a warm front NE later tomorrow. Trailing fronts then get strung out across Southern Britain later in the week with a cold and showery Westerly flow to the North which extends SE to all areas by Friday and next weekend. GEM GEM shows a strong WNW flow across the UK next weekend with showers or rain at times, wintry in the North. Following a ridge of High pressure late in the weekend the run up to Christmas looks mild and rather cloudy with a little rain as High pressure to the South edges ever close to Southern England pushing rain bearing fronts more towards the far North and NW. NAVGEM NAVGEMlooks quite similar to GEM in theme bringing mild SW winds on the Northern flank of High pressure over the near Continent. All areas would likely become quite mild and beign in the South while the North and NW see rain at times in the run up to Christmas.. ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile Westerly type pattern through the period gradually becoming less unstable and milder with time as High pressure over nearby Europe becomes more influential in pulling milder uppers across the UK ina SW airflow on the run up to Christmas. Christmas Day which is at the close of the run this morning shows an active cold front crossing the Uk from the NW with rain follwed by wintry showers across the North and West. ECM ENSEMBLES The ECM Ensembles continue to illustrate a bias towards Low pressure being to the North of the UK and High to the South in 10 days time with the balance still well in favour of Westerly maritime winds driving rain and showers across the UK with brief colder interludes across the North in otherwise average temperature values. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends remain weak this morning with the trend for longer milder sectors across the UK towards Christmas perhaps being pushed away over the holiday itself by another shot of colder polar maritime conditions with showers, wintry in the North although this is by far a done deal as there are plenty of other options shown none of which translate to anything particularly cold within that time juncture. MY THOUGHTS It's still like looking for a needle in a haystack in our quest for cold weather or at least a break from this well worn pattern of High to the South and Low to the North of the UK that has been persistent over the last few weeks. This week seems like the usual mix of wet and mild or cold and showery weather that has been the case for a while now where the North hogs most of the chance of any wintriness in the form of showers while the South stays milder and less wet but generally non-descript in weather terms. It then appears that after a brief shot of colder air at some point next weekend for us all things get worse as High pressure settles over nearby Europe steering mild SW winds across all of the UK in the run up to Christmas with leaden skies and rain at times no doubt. ECM then shows an active cold front moving SE Chrismas Day morning which could turn things more seasonal over Northern hills at Christmas along with frosts at night almost anywhere but this looks unlikely to last as many output members follow the well worn track of a ridge followed by a return to a relatively mild and Westerly pattern post Christmas. With the ECM Ensemble pack looking far from anything exciting this morning citing a continuing spell of Westerly winds between Low to the North and High to the South at Day 10 there has to be little optimism from me this morning that we are looking to any major change anytime soon. With it now being several days since rumblings of a change in pattern could be on the horizon from those best in the know we continue to see little evidence of this being translated to the models and it will be interesting as a result of this whether the Met Office revise their thoughts over the coming days to something that we don't want to here. My own feeling is that this looks like shaping up to be a very Azores High driven Winter and while it is always a pain in the backside even in our colder Winter scenarios of the past this year it looks particularly strong which is why I maintain our best shot of cold will be from a Northerly rather than Eastern quadrant with the caveat if at one or two times in the coming months the Azores High ridges to Greenland it may deliver us some real cold later in the season even if any particular spell will not last that long. Meanwhile we have to sit and wait and wait. One thing that looks very certain this morning is that away from hill of the North it is unlikely that there will be a widespread White Christmas across the UK this year.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY DECEMBER 14TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 15TH 20:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Troughs of Low pressure will cross the UK through the day becoming slow moving close to Southern England as small distubances run East along it. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show signs of maintaining a West to East flow in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. However, the speed of the flow is looking like weakening with time as the Jet flow filters first further North over the UK by this time next week and later back South to lie South of the UK post Christmas. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a continuation of the Westerly flow through the next 5- 7 days with rain at times and further wintry showery incursions across the North. In the days that run up to Christmas pressure is High over SW Europe with a mild SW flow across the UK with rain at times. Colder air is shown to move across the UK over the Christmas period with wintry showers especially over the North and post Christmas sees pressure rise through mid Atlantic and Greenland with Low pressure entrenched near the NW of the UK with rain and strong winds for many with average temperatures. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in structure through the period up to christmas with the festive time itself looking green for most with rain at times especially over SW areas as Low pressure gets hung up in these parts. At the same time pressure rises near northern Scotland and in the following days this makes it's way to Scandinavia before sinking South at the end of the run. much of the UK wuld become cold and breezy under a fresh SE flow with rain or sleet at times with hill snow principally towards the West and North. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run today maintains avery mobile Westerly flow throughout the period running up to Christmas, Christmas itself and beyond with alternating periods of milder and wetter conditions and spells of colder and windy weather with showers wintry over the hills especially over Northern Britain. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles members show a variety of options this morning with the main long term feature being the weakening of the Jet flow later and the positioning of it heading South somewhat introducing at least the threat of colder options post Christmas. At this stage the bias is still held for a preference towards a basically Westerly flow with Low pressure to the North and High to the South and SW and perhaps West later. UKMO UKMO today shows a changeable and breezy week to come with Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of Scotland. The familiar mix of milder and cloudy weather with some rain alternating with brighter, colder and windy weather with showers, wintry in the North continues through to next weekend when it will feel cold everywhere THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show fronts crossing the UK at times over the next 24 hours or so with weak showery troughs following the cold front out of Southern Britain tonight. Thereafter a quieter period is shown before warm fronts cross East towards midweek introducing a strong and warm sector across the South with a cold front in the East Atlantic waiting to chase this mild sector out of Southern Britain towards the end of the week.. GEM GEM shows little change in pattern this morning with Low pressure crossing East to the North and High to the South maintaining the changeable pattern aforementioned across the UK. NAVGEM NAVGEM differs in as much as it brings a strong ridge up close to Southern England a week from now diverting Atlantic depressions further to the North to affect only those areas while the South sees the risk of frost and fog patches and generally dry conditions with some bright skies late in the run.. ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile Westerly type pattern maintained through it's duration this morning with all of the UK weather through the period generated over the Atlantic. As of late there will be spells of rain alternating with colder and windy periods with showers, wintry in the North. High pressure does show signs of becoming somewhat more influential in the South later by a reduction in the amounts of rainfall and in the North by bringing strong but milder Westerly winds for longer periods than currently. Christmas itself on current thinking looks like being rather cold and showery under polar maritime air under low pressure to the North ECM ENSEMBLES Due to work commitments I am unable to report on these this morning as of time of release of this report they had not been issued. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Trends remain slow this morning with the trend for a longer milder sector across the UK towards Christmas being pushed away by the holiday itself by another shot of colder polar maritime conditions with showers, wintry in the North MY THOUGHTS Not much change within the model output with the majority showing a continuation of an Atlantic driven pattern between High pressure to the South or SW and low to the North and NE. There looks likely to be a period of mild SW winds in a warm sector in the days running up to Christmas before the Christmas period itself could coincide with polar maritime conditions lying across the UK which could give Northern areas in particular a fairly festive feel to things as wintry showers look likely. Snow at Christmas looks less likely across the South at that time though. Then we need to look between the lines of this pattern to see where we might be heading late in the year and the start of 2015. There is some members this morning within ensemble packs and a few operational runs who do show a desire at least to break us out of this pattern. For example the GFS operational does half heartedly rise pressure through the Atlantic and towards the Greenland area late in its run but in this occasion doesn't benefit the UK other than to drive a deep Low into NW Britain with wind and rain while the Parallel run takes High pressure over to Scandinavia later which would change the pattern to a colder and possibly more blocked pattern. However, progress and extent of these options remain slow and few with the overriding scenario remaining one of a similar pattern to that of now with sturbborn High pressure still a thorn in the side to any required move out of the current pattern. Nevertheless, there are some signs that GFS at least is trying it's best to offer something a little more seasonal longer term and lets hope these are the first baby steps I hinted at yesterday and they are the precursor to more of the output leaning this way in subsequent rns over the next few days. We shall see.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SUNDAY DECEMBER 14TH 20:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cross SE across Britain today followed by a milder SW flow ahead of a cold front approaching the North and West of the UK tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but a few colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show signs of maintaining a West to East flow in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. However, the speed of the flow is looking like weakening with time as the Jet flow filters first further north over the UK and later back South to lie South of the UK post Christmas. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a continuation of the Westerly flow through the next 5- 7 days with rain at times and further wintry showery incursions across the North. In the days that run up to Christmas pressure rises over the South with drier and more settled conditions possible with frost at night while the North maintains a Westerly feed with rain at times and milder periods. Late in the period with High pressure over SE Europe the weather become milder again in a SW flow across the UK. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is broadly similar in structure with latter details day to day not mportant at this range but with the jist of it showing higher pressure developing close to the South of the UK near Christmas with bands of rain off the Atlantic principally affecting the North more than the South with frost and fog patches possible under the ridges more likely over the South later before High pressure ridges North over the Atlantic at the end of the run with a cold North flow affecting all then.. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run today maintains a basically mobile Westerly flow across the UK over the period leading up to Christmas. There will be spells of milder and rainier conditions alternating with short colder periods with showers especially across the North. Later in the period a more pronounced push of High pressure affects the South at times with colder and less breezy weather more common with frost and fog patches at night between short periods of rain and cold conditions with snow on hills as Low pressure sinks SE across the UK post Christmas. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will continue to be dominant through much of the period but the trend towards a weaker Jet profile and weaker pressure gradients over the UK opens the door for other solutions including cold ones under Northerly winds to be shown within the ensemble pack. UKMO UKMO today shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with deep Low pressure to the North. With temperatures close to average it will feel chilly in the wind and all areas will see further spells of rain and showers at times with a some snow on the higher Northern hills in the showery periods between rainbands. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a couple of occluded fronts crossing SE over the UK in the coming days bringing rain at times and showers behind them, wintry over hills in the North. Towards midweek a warm front with a more proniunced warm sector crosses England and Wales with rain at times before the North sees a cold front cross midweek with a return to colder and more showery conditions once more. Generally quite windy at times. GEM GEM shows little change in conditions to that we have experienced over recent days with spells of rain alternating with colder NW winds with showers, wintry in the North. Later in the run the trend towards pressure rising across the South and later to the West over the Atlantic brings quieter and more settled conditions across the South with some patchy frost and fog at night. As we approach Christmas High pressure is shown ridging North over the Atlantic with a spell of mild westerly wins being replaced by colder northerlies in the days up to the big event with wintry showers developing over the North. NAVGEM NAVGEM continues to show the pattern to which we have become accustomed of late with deep Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the SW sending spells of milder west winds and rain over the UK alternating with colder, windy and showery NW winds when showers turn to snow over high ground in the North. It too shows hints of pressure rising North over the Atlantic late in the run. ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile Westerly type pattern maintained through it's duration this morning with all of the UK weather through the period generated over the Atlantic. As of late there will be spells of rain alternating with colder and windy periods with showers, wintry in the North. High pressure does show signs of becoming somewhat more influential in the South later by a reduction in the amounts of rainfall and in the North by bringing strong but milder Westerly winds for longer periods than currently. It currently shows a mild and benign looking Christmas over the UK as a whole.. ECM ENSEMBLES Due to work commitments I am unable to report on these this morning as of time of release of this report they had not been issued. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS A slow trend for more members within model groups that a trend towards High pressure ridging North into Southern Britain at tmes or North over the Atlantic later in the period towards Christmas is indicated this morning but progress and extent is very sketchy and limited currently. MY THOUGHTS In these thoughts of mine this morning I am not going to dwell on the fact that the models continue to show variations on a well worn track that Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High pressure to the SW continue to be the overriding factor within the models again this morning. However, reading between the lines there are a few small and some would say minute but subtle differences in the pattern that show up towards Christmas and more likely thereafter. It looks increasingly likely that High pressure will gradually exert more influence of primarily Southern britain in the run up to Christmas. This will of course mean mild Westerly winds over the North with further rain at times and perhaps less interventions of colder polar maritime air for a time. In addition behind each cold front comes another surge of High pressure eventually from the West which shows more inclination in trend to push north over the Atlantic with time and although in the time frame of this morning's output this is not achieved to any great extent it could spell the first signs of a pattern change as High pressure becomes more dominant to the West of the UK and later NW as the Jet flow pattern continues to show signs of weakening in response to other factors within the atmosphere towards the New Year. I continue to maintain that our best chance of cold weather this year will be from the North and not East and although there is little concrete evidence to support this in a huge way this morning the first baby steps are there but it is a long way to go before a change in pattern will achieve a common theme within extended outputs but I believe the first steps of change are beginning to become apparent within the longer term outlooks this morning and if the info supplied from the Met who have access to much more than we can see is to be right then we could begin to realise what they say about conditions by early January could begin to bear fruit soon within the models. Watch this space.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY FRIDAY DECEMBER 12TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE SATURDAY DECEMBER 13TH 20:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION Fronts will clear SE across the UK today followed by a ridge of High pressure tonight and tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but a few colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast continues to show signs of maintaining a West to East flow in the vicinity of the UK over the next few weeks. However, the speed of the flow is looking like weakening with time while maintaining it's positioning. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows another week or so of mobile Atlantic Westerlies across the UK with rain or showers at times with snow on Northern hills at times. Then a change towards higher pressure moves up across the UK from the SW in week 2 with frost and fog and anticyclonic type weather developing for a time. Towards the end of the run the high recedes SE and mahes for slack Southerly winds across the UK with a lot of dry, rather cloudy and benign conditions with less in the way of frost and fog by night and the return of some rain at times across the North and West. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available at time of issue. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run today maintains a basically mobile Westerly flow across the UK over the period. There will be spells of milder and rainier conditions alternating with short colder periods with showers especially across the North. In the quieter periods frost at night may occur but the end of the run ends with the UK weather governed by a large High pressure zone down to the SW. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will continue to be dominant through much of the period but the trend towards a weaker Jet profile and weaker pressure gradients over the UK opens the door for other solutions to be shown within this long lasting pattern. UKMO UKMO today shows a strong Westerly flow across the UK towards the middle of next week with deep Low pressure to the North. With temperatures close to average it will feel chilly in the wind and all areas will see further spells of rain and showers at times with a little snow on the higher Northern hills. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a period of variable weather alternating between sunshine and showers and cloudier periods with more prolonged rainfall and blustery winds as each succession of troughs pass over in generally close to average temperatures. GEM GEM shows little change in conditions to that we have experienced over recent days with spells of rain alternating with colder NW winds with showers, wintry in the North. Later in the run High pressure to the SW inches in towards Iberia and Biscay bringing more westerly winds with rain at times and less colder interventions away from the far North. NAVGEM NAVGEM too shows a flattening of the pattern across the UK as the alternating spells of rain with colder showery conditions is replaced by milder Westerly winds with rain at times more towards the North and West looking likely one week from now. ECM ECM this morning shows a mobile Westerly type pattern maintained through it's duration this morning with all of the UK weather through the period generated over the Atlantic. As of late there will be spells of rain alternating with colder and windy periods with showers, wintry in the North. High pressure does show signs of becoming somewhat more influential in the South later by a reduction in the amounts of rainfall and in the North by bringing strong but milder Westerly winds for longer periods than currently. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's still reflect a distorted picture of Low pressure to the North and High pressure ever closer to the South of the UK. However, a variety of options are shown in indicidual members that show something more akin to a Northerly component to the weather as a trough resides to the East with higher pressure over the Atlantic but as it stands it's far from being a given evolution. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There still appears to be little shift away from a Westerly profile of weather across the UK with further spells of rain and wintry showers in the North before a slow shift towards a flattern and somewhat milder period is shown in the second half of the period.. MY THOUGHTS The models seem slow to respond to any upwind signals of a change of pattern towards the end of the year and while we wait for that to filter through we continue to look at charts which resemble the pattern we have seen now for several weeks. High pressure remains stubbornly locked down to the SW of the UK, near the Azores and with deep Low pressure areas continuing to move East to the North of the UK carrying spells of wind and rain followed by showers. Over recent runs the trend towards milder air taking the upper hand next week has receded somewhat and it now looks like further colder air will filter down across northern Britain at times maintaining the occasionally wintry flavour of weather up there. Wintriness is unlikely across the South with average temperatures likely as a result. Then as we move towards Christmas it looks distinctly a green one for many as High pressure is shown to track ever closer to SW Europe bringing a flatter westerly flow across the UK with rain at times gradually becoming most prolific towards the North and West while temperatures recover to average or a fraction above. There are signs though that the Jet stream and Low pressure profile around the Iceland and Greenland area will become less pronounced given tome and this maybe the first signs of a pattern shift after Christmas. We must be mindful though we are talking grains of sand in a desert and there is a wealth of weather to get through as well as all the usual if's and but's before something more akin to what folks want to see become more likely but for the moment we must continue to endure a substantial period of mobile Atlantic Westerly driven weather with all the natural variability that can provide.

Patchy clouds and clear skies and temperatures sliding a little over the last hur or so. Currently 5.6C with not much wind to speak of, Full data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Patchy clouds and clear skies and temperatures sliding a little over the last hur or so. Currently 5.6C with not much wind to speak of, Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE THURSDAY DECEMBER 11TH 20:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An intense depression lies to the East of Iceland with a severe gale Westerly flow across the North and a less strong flow across the South. A wave depression approaches Western Britain from the Atlantic later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Remaining changeable with rain at times especially across the North and West. Temperatures generally close to or a little above average but a few colder periods over the North when showers could turn wintry. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast maintains the flow to the South of the UK for the next week blowing somewhat less strongly next week and easing slowly North to lie across the UK through week 2. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows very little change in the overall pattern over the period of it's output this morning. Low pressure will continue crossing East to the North of Scotland bringing spells of rain alternating between spells of colder and more showery weather with snow on Northern hills. High pressure edges up closer to Southern Britain in week 2 with milder and less unsettled conditions for a time possible as a result more especially in the South. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is very similar in Week 1 as the operational though in Week 2 it enhances further the trend towards mild and less wet conditions across the UK as High pressure takes up residence over Southern Europe steering mild and benign weather NE across the UK on the run up to Christmas with rain at times across the North and West. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern with it too replacing any cold injections with generally mild, less windy and occasionally wet conditions for a period of the second week before stronger and more deeply unsettled weather return towards the end of the run in strong Westerly winds. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will be the dominant pattern over the whole period with occasional rain and showers over the UK with rather less cold weather overall as the incidence of tropical maritime air in association with Low pressure to the North increases across the UK. UKMO UKMO today shows a flat but strong Westerly pattern across the UK at the start of next week between Low pressure to the East of Iceland and a strong Azores High pressure area remaining in situ. There will be spells of rain with some showery interludes with temperatures recovering to average values after the chilly weekend especially in the North. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a strong and unstable Westerly flow across the UK ahead of a wave depression crossing East into the UK later tomorrow. As this clears winds turn to a cold NNW flow very briefly before a complex series of warm fronts over the Atlantic bring back breezy, milder and sometimes wet weather early next week. GEM GEM in the short term shows the pattern of the majority of the output with regard to milder Westerly winds next week alternating with colder and chillier spells with showers before it drags Low pressure down the North Sea and into SE Europe allowing pressure to build across Scandinavia which then extends a cold ridge back across the UK delivering drier and cold weather with overnight frosts and fog as a result following a cold and showery period of weather later next week with wintry showers across the East and SE as this process takes place. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows windy weather continuing for the whole of the run with further Low pressure areas crossing a point to the North of Scotland at various occasions over the week, each bringing a spell of rain and followed by clearer and colder weather with sunshine and showers, wintry on the hills. ECM ECM this morning shows a Westerly pattern maintained through it's duration this morning. After the cold blip for all this weekend milder air will flood east over Britain from the end of the weekend with some rain at times and any colder showery conditions only affecting the North on occasion before all reas see a reduction in rainfall and wind strength late in the period as High pressure to the SW edges ever closer towards SW Britain. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data has remained almost identical for days now making the chances of any major changes very remote indeed as confidence remains high that in 10 days time the UK will still be in the pattern of Low pressure to the North and High to the SW leaving the UK in an unstable Westerly flow with average temperatures and rain at times for all. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Not any major shift in trend this morning with little or no sign of any major changes in the Westerly pattern other than the incidence of milder periods increasing with less in the way of polar maritime air affecting anywhere other than the far North of Britain later. MY THOUGHTS It really looks like desperate times for those looking for any cold weather of note over lowland Britain anytime in the run up to Christmas with a locked pattern of High to the SW and Low to the far North unable to drag anything cold South meaningfully over the next few weeks. Instead we look to be increasingly fed maritime Westerly winds and a lot of cloud and occasional rainfall more especially across the North and West. There doesn't look to be any dramatic amounts of rain anywhere away from the far NW and indeed it may become drier across the South with time as that Azores High exerts even more influence towards Southern Britain later as the Jet flow edges back North somewhat later. With no building blocks at the needed locations to break us out of this pattern I'm afraid it looks very unlikely that any Christmas card scenes will greet any of us over lowland Britain over Christmas this year and the seek for cold goes on and looks as far away as ever at the term of all the output I've seen today taking us towards the end of the first third of Winter 2014. However, bear in mind my comments are borne on what is shown today and with Christmas still two weeks away there is time for change. NOTE: I am unable to compile a report tomorrow morning due to work commitments but may post one on the 12z ones in the evening just for a change.

After a frosty night cloud has spilled across and temperatures and something of a breeze is developing. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

After a frosty night cloud has spilled across and temperatures and something of a breeze is developing. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY DECEMBER 9TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 10TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION An intense depression close to Iceland tonight will move slowly East driving an active cold front SE across the UK today and tonight with storm force Westerly gales across Northern areas tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and windy for most with wintry showers or longer spells of rain or sleet with snow on hills especially in the North later this week. Perhaps milder especially in the South next week. Some night frosts where skies clear. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the strong flow continuing to the South of the UK under a deep trough over the next few days gradually moving North and weakening somewhat next week with a mix of solutions shown but still with a bias for the flow to travel West to East in the vicinity of the UK between lower pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a continuation in the very changeable and often windy pattern of weather with a continuation of Low pressure areas driving East close to Northern Scotland with spells of rain followed by showers and sunny intervals with the showers wintry on hills at times. Little change to this pattern is shown right through to the end of the run taking us up to the run up to Christmas 2014. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is much the same as the operational with only day to day differences shown between the changeable and Westerly theme which continues through to the end of the run. All areas would see spells of rain and average temperatures and spells of chillier conditions with wintry showers in the North and patchy frosts on occasions between weather systems. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern to the operational above but shows a more defined pull of milder tropical maritime air across the UK in conjunction with higher pressure over France through week 2 with less rainfall likely too especially over the South. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will be the dominant pattern over the whole period. There will be a period through the start of the second week when High pressure comes close to Southern Britain for a time lessening the effects of wind and rain to a spell of milder weather before the return of polar maritime air at times brings back more volatile conditions with rain or showers at times as we approach Christmas. UKMO UKMO today shows milder air returning from the West later in the weekend as the North flow early in the weekend backs Westerly. There will be spells of rain followed by showers at the start of next week with any wintry showers more confined to Scottish high ground by then. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold front sweeping SE tonight followed by a cold and very strong Westerly flow with showers tomorrow and Thursday. A secondary depression then is shown to deepen and move quickly NE across England Thursday night with rain and strong winds clearing to lighter NW winds and wintry showers at the weekend with milder westerly air over the Atlantic poised to approach the UK at the start of next week. GEM GEM this morning maintains the basic pattern of Low pressure to the North and High to the SW over it's run this morning. This means a continuation of spells of wind and rain and average temperatures will be mixed with periods of sunshine and showers, wintry at times over the North. Patchy frost is likely in the quieter periods between weather systems. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning shows windy weather continuing for the whole of the run with further Low pressure areas crossing a point to the North of Scotland at various occasions over the week, each bringing a spell of rain and followed by clearer and colder weather with sunshine and showers, wintry on the hills. ECM ECM this morning shows a very mobile pattern with strong Low pressure areas crossing East to the North of Scotland with strong winds and rain affecting all areas at times alternating with clearer and colder conditions with sunshine and showers in blustery WNW winds. Late in the run a flatter westerly flow develops which if transpired would bring milder and cloudy weather to many with rain more restricted towards the North and West in tropical maritime air for a time.. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data remains largely unchanged with the overriding factor likely to be one of Low pressure situated to the North of the UK and High pressure to the SW. There will be spells ofstrong winds, rain and showers likely across all areas interspersed with colder and more showery spells with snowfall on Northern hills at times. Overall temperatures will be in the range of near or slightly below normal at times over the North and near to or slightly above average at times in the South but windchill will be a notable factor at times. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Not any major shift in trend this morning with no cross model or high percentage chance of anything majorly cold affecting the UK in the run up to Christmas shown by any output this morning. MY THOUGHTS The volatile pattern of strong Westerly winds and occasional periods of rain and wintry showers look likely to be maintained across the UK in the next week or two. Despite some indications from good sources to the contrary of what the current model output available to the general public shows there remains little indication of anything other than changeable weather with some strong winds at times accompanying the heady mix of rain and wintry showers. It remains unlikely than the South will see anything other than the odd flake in the showery periods whereas the high ground of the North could see copious amounts of snow at times. Looking longer term there seems little sign of anything exciting affecting the UK in the run up to Chrsistmas with broadly Westerly winds maintained. It maybe in fact thet a flatter pattern for a time brings a milder and less wet period in part of week 2 before the undulating pattern between mild and cold periods return late in the period but there still seems a lot of work to be dome in the atmosphere if we are going to see a major shift towards universally UK wide cold and wintry weather this side of the New year. Of course we must always be mindful that we are not privvy to data that some of our powers at Exeter see so what I've described above is only indicative of what we can see and doesn't cater for hinted differences to the pattern that the Met boys see so we will have to see whether any differences manifest or transpire across the mainstream model outputs in the coming days.

Dry and fine this morning but after overnight showers a slight frost on the ground occurred. Current data here:- http://www.norton-ra...o.uk/index.html

Dry and fine this morning but after overnight showers a slight frost on the ground occurred. Current data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY MONDAY DECEMBER 8TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE TUESDAY DECEMBER 9TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A ridge of High pressure will cross the UK from the West today and tonight followed by a trough reaching the NW tomorrow in a strengthening SW flow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and windy for most with wintry showers or longer spells of rain or sleet with snow on hills especially in the North later this week. Perhaps milder especially in the South next week. Some night frosts where skies clear. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the strong flow continuing just to the South of the UK this coming week before it eases North for a time but continues in an undulating fashion in conjunction between Low pressure to the North and High pressure well to the SW. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows little change from the pattern that has been shown for some while. The model shows a sustained period of strong Westerly winds between Low pressure to the North and High to the SW of the UK. From time to time the flow turns more NW dragging colder uppers down across the UK before milder air returns East behind. This means that rain at times will be mixed in with periods of brighter and colder conditions with showers turning wintry over the hills, more especially in the North. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run also shows a similar pattern to the operational above but shows a more defined pull of milder tropical maritime air across the UK in conjunction with higher pressure over France through week 2 with less rainfall likely too especially over the South. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles are indicative that Low pressure to the North of the UK and High to the South and SW will be the dominant pattern over the whole period. There will be alternating periods of cold and showery weather mixed with milder air at times with the trend for more of the air to be milder in the second week than week 1 as the jet flow edges North somewhat to the East of the UK. UKMO UKMO today shows deep Low pressure to the North and later NE of the UK with a brief cold period of 24 hours or so around the start of next weekend. Very windy conditions will be dominant this week with showers or longer spells of rain at times falling as snow on Northern hills and in the South too possibly briefly at the weekend. The Day 6 chart shows milder winds encroaching over the UK from the West as winds back towards the West later with further rain at times with any snowfall becoming more and more confined to northern hills again early next week. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a very deep depression well to the North of Scotland with gale or severe gale West winds and rain or showers becoming increasingly wintry over the hills of the North innitially with further troughing crossing the South later this week with more prolonged rainfall here for a time. GEM GEM this morning shows a cool and very windy period this week, often cold with snow showers over the hills especially in the North but the South too briefly near this coming weekend. As we move into next week a more pronounced shift towards milder winds from the SW will engulf the UK with some rain at times across the North and West. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning also shows the pattern of cold and windy conditions predominating this week with rain and showers with snow on the hills before a shift towards somewhat milder but still breezy West winds take hold at the end of the run covering the period of the beginning of next week. ECM ECM this morning shows a very mobile Atlantic flow across the UK throughout the period of it's run this morning. The pattern will alternate between milder and windy weather with rain for all and colder and more showery periods when showers will turn to snow over the hills of the North principally but not exclusively. Temperatures overall will be close to average or somewhat below at times across the North and occasionally a little above in the South with frost restricted towards the colder and showery interludes akmost anywhere. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data remains unchanged with the overriding factor likely to be one of Low pressure situated to the North of the UK and High pressure to the SW. There will be spells ofstrong winds, rain and showers likely across all areas interspersed with colder and more showery spells with snowfall on Northern hills at times. Overall temperatures will be in the range of near or slightly below normal at times over the North and near to or slightly above average at times in the South but windchill will be a notable factor at times. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS Changes in trend to the continuing strong Westerly flow of weather across the UK are slow or non-existent with some output still showing a somewhat milder trend for next week than the week to come as High pressure edges closer to the South and SE of Britain. MY THOUGHTS The pattern of weather over the next couple of weeks illustrated by the latest outputs indicate little change in what has been shown over recent days. In basic terms there will be a lot of days when strong winds occur with rain at times in the form of showers or brief periods of more prolonged rainfall. The main interest in this otherwise static pattern is the ingress of colder polar maritime air across the UK bringing the possibility of some snowfall in places. As is always the case this is focused most towards higher ground over the North and only briefly reaching the South for a time this coming weekend as a brief shift of winds towards the North is well documented by all output. Then next week as winds back towards the West some output shows a milder phase of weather even across the North as pressure rises to the South of the UK coupled with a change of axis to the Jet flow with rain at times for all. However, there is still some evidence that the pattern will remain mixed with further colder injections around the Southern flank of depressions North of the UK through next week too as the ECM operational illustrates well today. So in my opinion the next few weeks will remain unsettled and often windy with rain at times for all and occasional snow showers over northern hills. It looks unlikely that snow will become anything other than interest value only for the vast majority of the populous of the UK with any notable settling snow reserved to hills and mountains above 300-400mtrs in the North and many will see none at all. Nevertheless, with such a volatile pattern across the UK and Northern hmisphere in general coupled with stark temperature contrasts North and South of the Jet flow across the South of the UK there will be plenty of interest from other elements of the weather other than snow to keep us on our toes and I continue to feel that at some point in the near future a flood of cold air from the North will likely give us our first main shot of Winter weather at some point in the not too distant future.

HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY SUNDAY DECEMBER 7TH 2014. NEXT UPDATE MONDAY DECEMBER 8TH 08:00 THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A cold front will clear SE Britain this morning and a further showery trough crosses SE over England tonight followed by a cold NW flow ahead of a weak ridge of High pressure later tomorrow. MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Rather cold and windy for most with wintry showers or longer spells of rain or sleet with snow on hills especially in the North later this week. Perhaps milder especially in the South next week. Some night frosts where skies clear. THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow positioned to the South of the UK with a trough in the flow to the East of the UK gradually lifting out in Week 2 to a flatter West to East pattern just to the South of the UK. GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows a lot of rather cold and unsettled weather across the UK as the pattern of Low to the North and occasionally NW and NE and High to the SW persists. There is spells of wet and windy weather shown for all at times followed by spells of colder and clearer weather with wintry showers across the North and West in particular. It is shown to be often windy too. Temperatures may recover towards average or a little above at times across the South for a time mid period. THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is not available until Monday of next week. THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run maintains a similar pattern to the operational with winds from a Westerly point alternating with more NW or even North winds at times as each weather system moves away East. Occasional rain followed by wintry showers will be a repeated process through the run with snow at times over most high ground. THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles maintain a period of zonal Westerly winds over the next two weeks circulating around Low pressure to the North and High to the South. As a lot of colder air interjects at times especially across the North there will be wintry showery type weather for many of these areas too with frost and snow at times over even modest high ground on occasion. However, in the South these incursions will be shorter-lived and modified at times. UKMO UKMO today shows deep Low pressure to the North and later NE of the UK with a progressively cold West then NNW flow for a time at the end of the run bringing plenty of rain showers in the South turning wintry over the hills next weekend while the North sees cold and windy conditions throughout with much more in the way of sleet and snow showers, appreciably over the hills. THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a cold NW flow tomorrow give way to a strong Westerly flow across the UK from Tuesday. A front will bring milder winds for a time before cold air sinks slowly South from midweek with snow and sleet showers in the North from midweek. A more organised band of rain crosses Southern Britain on Thursday before all areas experience cold and strong NW winds by the weekend with wintry showers. GEM GEM this morning also follows the pattern of strong Westerly winds and wintry showers developing later this week. these will be restricted to Northern areas in the frst half of the week with longer periods of rain crossing all areas on Tuesday and the South on Thursday before all areas become affected by a short injection of cold NNW winds and snow showers everywhere for a time. Late in the run winds back West and mild air sweeps East across all areas with some rain and a thaw in the North and West. NAVGEM NAVGEM this morning could be written from the GEM textbook as it mirrors the sequence of events up to 18-hrs with a cold and changeable week giving way to milder conditions as we start next week. ECM ECM this morning shows a very changeable week to 10 days to come but shows less penetration of cold air into the South late this week that some of the other output shows. As a result quite a wintry week in the North with strong winds and snow showers look like lasting for three to four days while the South sees more moderate if rather cold conditions at times with rain on Tuesday and again on Thursday before showery weather occurs thereafter with a little wintriness only over the higher hills of the West. Then all areas see a backing of the flow towards the West resulting in all areas becoming milder and windy with rain at times but still with some incursion of colder and more showery weather across the far North at times. ECM ENSEMBLES This morning's Ensemble data maintains the pattern of Low tpressure to the North and High near the Azores maintaining the changeable pattern of rain or showers at times across the UK with occasional shots of colder polar maritime air across the North of the UK sufficiently chilly enough to promote some wintry showers here while some frost is possible in quieter periods between fronts, again more common across the North. NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS The main theme is for chilly Westerly winds to predominate across the UK veering to a colder still NW blow for a time later this week before flattening to a milder Westerly pattern next week. MY THOUGHTS Some parts of Northern Britain are going to see quite a bit of wintry weather this week with plenty of snowfall mounting up on all the higher ground giving rise to some disruption with height. However, height asl is the key here as many lower lying areas will see only limited snowfall and little if any settling of the snow. In the South the pattern will be a lot less exciting with sunshine and showers giving way to more prolonged rainfall and for a time in mild air on Tuesday with more prolonged rainfall on Thursday too. It looks like the period of Friday to Sunday sees a window of opportunity for the South too to see some wintry showers while the North continue to see more troublesome snowfall over the hills. Thereafter the trend looks like the weather will become milder everywhere as the dig of cold into Europe is thwarted by rising pressure there forcing the Jet stream further North over Europe and tilting winds across the UK to a milder WSW orientation. Ther could still be some incursions of colder air into the North and West in particular at times with some wintry showers on the hills while the South will just see rain. Some frosts through this week are likely under clearing skies but there should be way to much wind for fog in a widespread form with frost too becoming more restrictive in week 2. In my opinion we continue to look to the North for the chance of a cold outbreak to occur between now and the New Year and although the shift in emphasis is looking towards less cold synoptics next week I think there will be further incursions of cold air coming down across the UK from the North or NW on various occasions between now and the New Year with little if any chance of anything cold arriving over the UK from mainland Europe within this period.

A sharp frost here this morning at -3.7C. Gin clear skies and the rising sun will give some atmospheric conditions over the next few hours as the frost melts. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html

A sharp frost here this morning at -3.7C. Gin clear skies and the rising sun will give some atmospheric conditions over the next few hours as the frost melts. Full data here:- http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/index.html