Polar Maritime
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Posts posted by Polar Maritime
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Excellent model watching over the last few days, I can see a strong signal for snowfalls during the last week of January from the N/W, bringing cold PM air, finally i am confidant we are tipping in the right direction.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204
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Yes Dev.. some people are all they condemn to be, very irresponsible... It's no wonder folk are confused.
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Some nice charts out in FI this morning, GFS is showing a split and disrupted Vortex leading to an Easterly flow.. Something of interest at least, let's see where we go from here, Hopefully Winter is on it's way at long last.
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82.6mm so far this Month, and 112.3mm in December, so not much to catch up as only 1/2 way through Jan.
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Very mild this morning, currently 7c with light rain.
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Yes a thin layer of snow here too.
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Models have flipped again tonight, after all the flip flopping over the past week im hoping this flip is the last flop.
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FAST SOLAR WIND: Blowing with gusts as fast as 800 km/s (1.8 million mph), a stream of solar wind is buffeting Earth's magnetic field. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Jan. 13th. http://www.spaceweather.com/
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Rain cleared through just after mid-night to leave a damp morning with clear sky's, low temp 3.1c.
Temp 3.2c
Dp 2.5c
Wind Chill 0.8c S/W 7mph
Rain today 0.3mm -
Yes Dancer to warm for snow or sleet last night, Rain cleared through just after mid-night to leave a damp morning with clear sky's, low temp 3.1c.
Temp 3.2c
Dp 2.5c
Wind Chill 0.8c S/W 7mph
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2c got to -5c last night.....hard frost this morning....clouded over and feeling pretty nippy in the breeze.....probably start off as sleet tonight...oxtail and cheek stew in oven.... Tea & peanut butter on toast....http://www.metcheck.com/UK/dayforecast.asp?zipcode=Glossop&day=1&locationID=57453&lat=53.4&lon=-1.9&findtype=Interesting......
Yes Will, "maybe" something wintry tonight on the leading edge as the front moves through, something of interest at least.
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Grey slate sky's now after a sunny frosty start, Im expecting the rain to hit here late evening.
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CHANCE OF FLARES: NOAA forecasters estimate a 35% chance of X-classsolar flares on Jan. 12th, most likely from AR1944. The brooding sunspot has been quiet for days, but still poses a threat for strong eruptions. http://www.spaceweather.com/
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well i don't.
we've gone from elation to despondency in just 3 days. considering there's 47 days left of winter (over half),
i think i'll give it a chance....
Yes some very knee jerk reactions this morning, the models are still very volatile and nothing is set in stone.
It's that which makes Winter model watching in the UK so exiting.
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Yes TM it's nice the ground has firmed up today, it's been an absolute sh$t hole round here for weeks, going to make the most of it today.
Let's hope the 2nd half of winter delivers, i certainly have not given up by a long way yet, reading the MOD this morning is enough to make anyone suicidal.
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A clear night here with an overnight low of -1.2c, although due to alt it's much colder down in the valleys. A good day to be out walking..
Current temp 0.5c
Dp -0.1c
Wind Chill -2.4c S/S/W 4mph
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A clear night here with odd cloud.
Temp -0.8c
Dp -0.4c
Wind Chill -1.7c S/E 4mph
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I have brought my previous study (see here and here) up-to-date by reviewing peer-reviewed articles in scientific journals over the period from Nov. 12, 2012 through December 31, 2013. I found 2,258 articles, written by a total of 9,136 authors. (Download the chart above here.) Only one article, by a single author in the Herald of the Russian Academy of Sciences, rejected man-made global warming. I discuss that article here. http://www.jamespowell.org/
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I hope some on here take the time to read your post Tamara, instead of franticly chasing every detail and run for snow.
It's the 11th Jan, not even half way through winter and if some understood just how strong the Jet Stream has been over past month or 2 then nothing really comes as a surprise, but with further SSW model'd and an ever weakening Vortex leading to a meandering Jet and the continent cooling, we are now in a far better position for something more seasonal than we have been all winter. Patience.
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You was suppose to cheer me up by saying the opposite.
My point still stands S.I
We can not make assumptions based on the weather we have had or having, as we have seen in years gone by things can change dramatically, not that we need it to, as we have plenty of winter left yet yet !
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Indeed, but I'm going with a gut feeling and that any cold and snow will be very brief if at all for the latter. This winter is of a similar vein to those nightmarish ones of the nineties and noughties.
Could very well be.. We will see
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I just want this mild and wet stuff to go away. I just doesn't feel like what a "winter" should be. I think that this winter is going to be one of those horrible snowless winters because not one snowflake has fell here in Manchester yet, that cold spell next week has already gone out of the window and February looks to be pretty mild too.
Really..? To be honest nobody has a clue what the 2nd half of Jan has to offer, never mind Feb which is traditionally the coldest winter month in the UK. We are not even half way through winter yet, plenty of time left yet and who knows what March will bring ? just look at last year for example, things can change very fast.
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Yes G.W, certainly something to keep an eye on..
Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
This report from the BBC is something that has been widely known for some time. The lack of UV alters the cloud base level in turn altering our weather, you only have to look back at the trends in Solar output during the suns Max and Min cycles to see this effect on our weather. The Sun has been extremely quite during this Solar Max we are currently in, so maybe the Sun is showing signs of a lull, but using this factor stand alone is impossible taking into account all the background noise and lag effects, but i agree there is a very strong correlation between the Earth and the Sun and more research is needed to properly understand this bowl of Spaghetti we live on